Taurus Star-forming Region Research Articles

A SURVEY FOR NEW MEMBERS OF TAURUS FROM STELLAR TO PLANETARY MASSES.

We present a large sample of new members of the Taurus star-forming region that extend from stellar to planetary masses. To identify candidate members at substellar masses, we have used color-magnitude diagrams and proper motions measured with several wide-field optical and infrared (IR) surveys. At stellar masses, we have considered the candidate members that were found in a recent analysis of high-precision astrometry from the Gaia mission. Using new and archival spectra, we have measured spectral types and assessed membership for these 161 candidates, 79 of which are classified as new members. Our updated census of Taurus now contains 519 known members. According to Gaia data, this census should be nearly complete for spectral types earlier than M6-M7 at A J < 1. For a large field encompassing ~ 72% of the known members, the census should be complete for K < 15.7 at A J < 1.5, which corresponds to ~ 5-13 M Jup for ages of 1-10 Myr based on theoretical evolutionary models. Our survey has doubled the number of known members at ≥M9 and has uncovered the faintest known member in M K , which should have a mass of ~3-10 ~ M Jup for ages of 1-10 Myr. We have used mid-IR photometry from the Spitzer Space Telescope and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer to determine whether the new members exhibit excess emission that would indicate the presence of circumstellar disks. The updated disk fraction for Taurus is ~0.7 at ≤M3.5 and ~0.4 at >M3.5.

Gaps and Rings in an ALMA Survey of Disks in the Taurus Star-forming Region

Abstract Rings are the most frequently revealed substructure in Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) dust observations of protoplanetary disks, but their origin is still hotly debated. In this paper, we identify dust substructures in 12 disks and measure their properties to investigate how they form. This subsample of disks is selected from a high-resolution (∼0.″12) ALMA 1.33 mm survey of 32 disks in the Taurus star-forming region, which was designed to cover a wide range of brightness and to be unbiased to previously known substructures. While axisymmetric rings and gaps are common within our sample, spiral patterns and high-contrast azimuthal asymmetries are not detected. Fits of disk models to the visibilities lead to estimates of the location and shape of gaps and rings, the flux in each disk component, and the size of the disk. The dust substructures occur across a wide range of stellar mass and disk brightness. Disks with multiple rings tend to be more massive and more extended. The correlation between gap locations and widths, the intensity contrast between rings and gaps, and the separations of rings and gaps could all be explained if most gaps are opened by low-mass planets (super-Earths and Neptunes) in the condition of low disk turbulence (α = 10−4). The gap locations are not well correlated with the expected locations of CO and N2 ice lines, so condensation fronts are unlikely to be a universal mechanism to create gaps and rings, though they may play a role in some cases.

The Stellar Membership of the Taurus Star-forming Region*

Abstract The high-precision astrometry from the second data release of the Gaia mission has made it possible to greatly improve the census of members of nearby clusters and associations. I have applied the Gaia data to the Taurus star-forming region, refining the sample of known members and identifying candidates for undiscovered members. The resulting samples of members and candidates provide the best constraints to date on the distribution of ages and the initial mass function (IMF) in Taurus. Several studies over the last 30 years have proposed the existence of a population of older stars (≳10 Myr) that is associated with the Taurus clouds. The data from Gaia demonstrate that such a population does not exist. Meanwhile, previous IMF estimates for small fields surrounding the Taurus aggregates have exhibited a surplus of K7–M0 stars (0.7–0.8 M ⊙) relative to star-forming clusters such as IC 348 and the Orion Nebula Cluster. However, that difference disappears when the new census of the entire region is considered, which should be complete for spectral types earlier than M6–M7 at A J &lt; 1. Thus, there is little variation in the stellar IMF across the 3–4 orders of magnitude in stellar density that are present in nearby star-forming regions. Finally, I note that the proper motions of two previously known members, KPNO 15 and 2MASS J04355209 + 2255039, indicate that they may have been ejected from the same location within the L1536 cloud ∼7200 years ago.

Structure of X-ray emitting jets close to the launching site: from embedded to disk-bearing sources

Context. Several observations of stellar jets show evidence of X-ray emitting shocks close to the launching site. In some cases, including young stellar objects (YSOs) at different stages of evolution, the shocked features appear to be stationary. We study two cases, both located in the Taurus star-forming region. HH 154, the jet originating from the embedded binary Class 0/I protostar IRS 5, and the jet associated with DG Tau, a more evolved Class II disk-bearing source or classical T Tauri star (CTTS). Aims. We investigate the effect of perturbations in X-ray emitting stationary shocks in stellar jets and the stability and detectability in X-rays of these shocks, and we explore the differences in jets from Class 0 to Class II sources. Methods. We performed a set of 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic numerical simulations that model supersonic jets ramming into a magnetized medium. The jet is formed of two components: a continuously driven component that forms a quasi-stationary shock at the base of the jet and a pulsed component consisting of blobs perturbing the shock. We explored different parameters for the two components. We studied two cases: HH 154, a light jet (less dense than the ambient medium), and a heavy jet (denser than the ambient medium) associated with DG Tau. We synthesized the count rate from the simulations and compared these data with available Chandra observations. Results. Our model is able to reproduce the observed jet properties at different evolutionary phases (in particular, for HH 154 and DG Tau) and can explain the formation of X-ray emitting quasi-stationary shocks observed at the base of jets in a natural way. The jet is collimated by the magnetic field forming a quasi-stationary shock at the base which emits in X-rays even when perturbations formed by a train of blobs are present. We found similar collimation mechanisms dominating in both heavy and light jets. Conclusions. We derived the physical parameters that can give rise to X-ray emission consistent with observations of HH 154 and DG Tau. We have also performed a wide exploration of the parameter space characterizing the model; this can be a useful tool to study and diagnose the physical properties of YSO jets over a broad range of physical conditions, from embedded to disk-bearing sources. We show that luminosity does not change significantly in variable jet models for the range of parameters explored. Finally, we provide an estimation of the maximum perturbations that can be present in HH 154 and DG Tau taking into account the available X-ray observations.

A Universal Spin–Mass Relation for Brown Dwarfs and Planets

Abstract While brown dwarfs show similarities to stars early in their lives, their spin evolutions are much more akin to those of planets. We have used light curves from the K2 mission to measure new rotation periods for 18 young brown dwarfs in the Taurus star-forming region. Our sample spans masses from 0.02 to 0.08 M ⊙ and has been characterized extensively in the past. To search for periods, we utilize three different methods (autocorrelation, periodogram, Gaussian processes). The median period for brown dwarfs with disks is twice as long as for those without (3.1 versus 1.6 days), a signature of rotational braking by the disk, albeit with small numbers. With an overall median period of 1.9 days, brown dwarfs in Taurus rotate slower than their counterparts in somewhat older (3–10 Myr) star-forming regions, consistent with spin-up of the latter due to contraction and angular momentum conservation, a clear sign that disk braking overall is inefficient and/or temporary in this mass domain. We confirm the presence of a linear increase of the typical rotation period as a function of mass in the substellar regime. The rotational velocities, when calculated forward to the age of the solar system, assuming angular momentum conservation, fit the known spin–mass relation for solar system planets and extra-solar planetary-mass objects. This spin–mass trend holds over six orders of magnitude in mass, including objects from several different formation paths. Our result implies that brown dwarfs by and large retain their primordial angular momentum through the first few Myr of their evolution.

K2 Reveals Pulsed Accretion Driven by the 2 Myr Old Hot Jupiter CI Tau b

Abstract CI Tau is a young (∼2 Myr) classical T Tauri star located in the Taurus star-forming region. Radial velocity observations indicate it hosts a Jupiter-sized planet with an orbital period of approximately 9 days. In this work, we analyze time series of CI Tau’s photometric variability as seen by K2. The light curve reveals the stellar rotation period to be ∼6.6 days. Although there is no evidence that CI Tau b transits the host star, a ∼9 day signature is also present in the light curve. We believe this is most likely caused by planet–disk interactions that perturb the accretion flow onto the star, resulting in a periodic modulation of the brightness with the ∼9 day period of the planet’s orbit.

More Rapidly Rotating PMS M Dwarfs with Light Curves Suggestive of Orbiting Clouds of Material

Abstract In a previous paper, using data from K2 Campaign 2, we identified 11 very low mass members of the ρ Oph and Upper Scorpius star-forming region as having periodic photometric variability and phased light curves showing multiple scallops or undulations. All of the stars with the “scallop-shell” light curve morphology are mid-to-late M dwarfs without evidence of active accretion and with photometric periods generally &lt;1 day. Their phased light curves have too much structure to be attributed to non-axisymmetrically distributed photospheric spots and rotational modulation. We have now identified an additional eight probable members of the same star-forming region plus three stars in the Taurus star-forming region with this same light curve morphology and sharing the same period and spectral type range as the previous group. We describe the light curves of these new stars in detail and present their general physical characteristics. We also examine the properties of the overall set of stars in order to identify common features that might help elucidate the causes of their photometric variability.

A Survey For Planetary-mass Brown Dwarfs in the Taurus and Perseus Star-forming Regions*

Abstract We present the initial results from a survey for planetary-mass brown dwarfs in the Taurus star-forming region. We have identified brown dwarf candidates in Taurus using proper motions and photometry from several ground- and space-based facilities. Through spectroscopy of some of the more promising candidates, we have found 18 new members of Taurus. They have spectral types ranging from mid-M to early-L, and they include the four faintest known members in extinction-corrected K s , which should have masses as low as ∼4–5 M Jup according to evolutionary models. Two of the coolest new members (M9.25, M9.5) have mid-IR excesses that indicate the presence of disks. Two fainter objects with types of M9–L2 and M9–L3 also have red mid-IR colors relative to photospheres at ≤L0, but since the photospheric colors are poorly defined at &gt;L0, it is unclear whether they have excesses from disks. We also have obtained spectra of candidate members of the IC 348 and NGC 1333 clusters in Perseus that were identified by Luhman et al. Eight candidates are found to be probable members, three of which are among the faintest and least-massive known members of the clusters (∼5 M Jup).

Millimeter Spectral Indices and Dust Trapping By Planets in Brown Dwarf Disks

Abstract Disks around brown dwarfs (BDs) are excellent laboratories to study the first steps of planet formation in cold and low-mass disk conditions. The radial-drift velocities of dust particles in BD disks higher than in disks around more massive stars. Therefore, BD disks are expected to be more depleted in millimeter-sized grains compared to disks around T Tauri or Herbig Ae/Be stars. However, recent millimeter observations of BD disks revealed low millimeter spectral indices, indicating the presence of large grains in these disks and challenging models of dust evolution. We present 3 mm photometric observations carried out with the IRAM/Plateau de Bure Interferometer (PdBI) of three BD disks in the Taurus star-forming region, which have been observed with ALMA at 0.89 mm. The disks were not resolved and only one was detected with enough confidence (∼3.5σ) with PdBI. Based on these observations, we obtain the values and lower limits of the spectral index and find low values (α mm ≲ 3.0). We compare these observations in the context of particle trapping by an embedded planet, a promising mechanism to explain the observational signatures in more massive and warmer disks. We find, however, that this model cannot reproduce the current millimeter observations for BD disks, and multiple-strong pressure bumps globally distributed in the disk remain as a favorable scenario to explain observations. Alternative possibilities are that the gas masses in the BD disk are very low (∼2 × 10−3 M Jup) such that the millimeter grains are decoupled and do not drift, or fast growth of fluffy aggregates.

VLA Observations of the Disk around the Young Brown Dwarf 2MASS J044427+2512

Abstract We present multi-wavelength radio observations obtained with the VLA of the protoplanetary disk surrounding the young brown dwarf 2MASS J04442713+2512164 (2M0444) in the Taurus star-forming region. 2M0444 is the brightest known brown dwarf disk at millimeter wavelengths, making this an ideal target to probe radio emission from a young brown dwarf. Thermal emission from dust in the disk is detected at 6.8 and 9.1 mm, whereas the 1.36 cm measured flux is dominated by ionized gas emission. We combine these data with previous observations at shorter sub-mm and mm wavelengths to test the predictions of dust evolution models in gas-rich disks after adapting their parameters to the case of 2M0444. These models show that the radial drift mechanism affecting solids in a gaseous environment has to be either completely made inefficient, or significantly slowed down by very strong gas pressure bumps in order to explain the presence of mm/cm-sized grains in the outer regions of the 2M0444 disk. We also discuss the possible mechanisms for the origin of the ionized gas emission detected at 1.36 cm. The inferred radio luminosity for this emission is in line with the relation between radio and bolometric luminosity valid for for more massive and luminous young stellar objects, and extrapolated down to the very low luminosity of the 2M0444 brown dwarf.

Properties of the Closest Young Binaries. I. DF Tau’s Unequal Circumstellar Disk Evolution

Abstract We present high-resolution, spatially resolved, near-infrared spectroscopy and imaging of the two components of DF Tau, a young, low-mass, visual binary in the Taurus star-forming region. With these data, we provide a more precise orbital solution for the system, determine component spectral types, radial velocity, veiling and values, and construct individual spectral energy distributions. We estimate the masses of both stars to be . We find markedly different circumstellar properties for DF Tau A and B: evidence for a disk, such as near-infrared excess and accretion signatures, is clearly present for the primary, while it is absent for the secondary. Additionally, the and rotation period measurements show that the secondary is rotating significantly more rapidly than the primary. We interpret these results in the framework of disk-locking and argue that DF Tau A is an example of disk-modulated rotation in a young system. The DF Tau system raises fundamental questions about our assumptions of universal disk formation and evolution.

Dynamical Masses of Low-mass Stars in the Taurus and Ophiuchus Star-forming Regions

Abstract We report new dynamical masses for five pre-main sequence (PMS) stars in the L1495 region of the Taurus star-forming region (SFR) and six in the L1688 region of the Ophiuchus SFR. Since these regions have VLBA parallaxes, these are absolute measurements of the stars’ masses and are independent of their effective temperatures and luminosities. Seven of the stars have masses , thus providing data in a mass range with little data, and of these, six are measured to precision . We find eight stars with masses in the range 0.09–1.1 that agree well with the current generation of PMS evolutionary models. The ages of the stars we measured in the Taurus SFR are in the range 1–3 Myr, and Myr for those in L1688. We also measured the dynamical masses of 14 stars in the ALMA archival data for Akeson &amp; Jensen’s Cycle 0 project on binaries in the Taurus SFR. We find that the masses of seven of the targets are so large that they cannot be reconciled with reported values of their luminosity and effective temperature. We suggest that these targets are themselves binaries or triples.

A Search for L/T Transition Dwarfs with Pan-STARRS1 and WISE. III. Young L Dwarf Discoveries and Proper Motion Catalogs in Taurus and Scorpius–Centaurus

Abstract We present the discovery of eight young M7–L2 dwarfs in the Taurus star-forming region and the Scorpius–Centaurus OB Association, serendipitously found during a wide-field search for L/T transition dwarfs using Pan-STARRS1 (optical) and WISE (mid-infrared) photometry. We identify PSO J060.3200+25.9644 (near-infrared spectral type L1) and PSO J077.1033+24.3809 (L2) as new members of Taurus based on their vl-g gravity classifications, the consistency of their photometry and proper motions with previously known Taurus objects, and the low probability of contamination by field objects. PSO J077.1033+24.3809 is the coolest substellar member of Taurus found to date. Both Taurus objects are among the lowest-mass free-floating objects ever discovered, with estimated masses ≈6 , and provide further evidence that isolated planetary-mass objects can form as part of normal star formation processes. PSO J060.3200+25.9644 (a.k.a. DANCe J040116.80+255752.2) was previously identified as a likely member of the Pleiades (age ) based on photometry and astrometry, but its vl-g gravity classification and near-infrared photometry imply a much younger age and thus point to Taurus membership. We have also discovered six M7–L1 dwarfs in outlying regions of Scorpius–Centaurus with photometry, proper motions, and low-gravity spectral signatures consistent with membership. These objects have estimated masses ≈15–36 . The M7 dwarf, PSO J237.1470−23.1489, shows excess mid-infrared flux implying the presence of a circumstellar disk. Finally, we present catalogs of Pan-STARRS1 proper motions for low-mass members of Taurus and Upper Scorpius with median precisions of ≈3 mas yr−1, including 67 objects with no previous proper motion and 359 measurements that improve on literature values.

Multiplicity and clustering in Taurus star-forming region

Aims. This work analyses the spatial distribution of stars in Taurus with a specific focus on multiple stars and wide pairs in order to derive new constraints on star formation and early dynamical evolution scenarios. Methods. We collected the multiplicity data of stars in Taurus to build an up-to-date stellar/multiplicity catalog. We first present a general study of nearest-neighbor statistics on spatial random distribution, comparing its analytical distribution and moments to those obtained from Monte Carlo samplings. We introduce the one-point correlation Ψ function to complement the pair correlation function and define the spatial regimes departing from randomness in Taurus. We then perform a set of statistical studies to characterize the binary regime that prevails in Taurus. Results. The Ψ function in Taurus has a scale-free trend with a similar exponent as the correlation function at small scale. It extends almost 3 decades up to ~60 kAU showing a potential extended wide binary regime. This was hidden in the correlation function due to the clustering pattern blending. Distinguishing two stellar populations, single stars versus multiple systems (separation ≤1 kAU), within Class II/III stars observed at high angular resolution, we highlight a major spatial neighborhood difference between the two populations using nearest-neighbor statistics. The multiple systems are three times more likely to have a distant companion within 10 kAU when compared to single stars. We show that this is due to the presence of most probable physical ultra-wide pairs (UWPs, defined as such from their mutual nearest neighbor property), that are themselves generally composed of multiple systems containing up to five stars altogether. More generally, our work highlights; 1) a new large population of candidate UWPs in Taurus within the range 1–60 kAU in Taurus and 2) the major local structural role they play up to 60 kAU. There are three different types of UWPs; either composed of two tight and comparatively massive stars (MM), by one single and one multiple (SM), or by two distant low-mass singles (SS) stars. These UWPs are biased towards high multiplicity and higher-stellar-mass components at shorter separations. The multiplicity fraction per ultra-wide pair with separation less than 10 kAU may be as high as 83.5 ± 19.6%. Conclusions. We suggest that these young pre-main sequence UWPs may be pristine imprints of their spatial configuration at birth resulting from a cascade fragmentation scenario of the natal molecular core. They could be the older counterparts, at least for those separated by less than 10 kAU, to the ≤0.5 Myr prestellar cores/Class 0 multiple objects observed at radio/millimeter wavelengths.

A SURVEY FOR NEW MEMBERS OF THE TAURUS STAR-FORMING REGION WITH THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY*

ABSTRACT Previous studies have found that ∼1 deg2 fields surrounding the stellar aggregates in the Taurus star-forming region exhibit a surplus of solar-mass stars relative to denser clusters like IC 348 and the Orion Nebula Cluster. To test whether this difference reflects mass segregation in Taurus or a variation in the initial mass function, we have performed a survey for members of Taurus across a large field (∼40 deg2) that was imaged by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We obtained optical and near-infrared spectra of candidate members identified with those images and the Two Micron All Sky Survey, as well as miscellaneous candidates that were selected with several other diagnostics of membership. We have classified 22 of the candidates as new members of Taurus, which includes one of the coolest known members (M9.75). Our updated census of members within the SDSS field shows a surplus of solar-mass stars relative to clusters, although it is less pronounced than in the smaller fields toward the stellar aggregates that were surveyed for previously measured mass functions in Taurus. In addition to spectra of our new members, we include in our study near-IR spectra of roughly half of the known members of Taurus, which are used to refine their spectral types and extinctions. We also present an updated set of near-IR standard spectra for classifying young stars and brown dwarfs at M and L types.

ALMA OBSERVATIONS OF CIRCUMSTELLAR DISKS IN THE UPPER SCORPIUS OB ASSOCIATION

ABSTRACT We present ALMA observations of 106 G-, K-, and M-type stars in the Upper Scorpius OB Association hosting circumstellar disks. With these data, we measure the 0.88 mm continuum and 12CO J = 3–2 line fluxes of disks around low-mass (0.14–1.66 M ⊙) stars at an age of 5–11 Myr. Of the 75 primordial disks in the sample, 53 are detected in the dust continuum and 26 in CO. Of the 31 disks classified as debris/evolved transitional disks, five are detected in the continuum and none in CO. The lack of CO emission in approximately half of the disks with detected continuum emission can be explained if CO is optically thick but has a compact emitting area (≲40 au), or if the CO is heavily depleted by a factor of at least ∼1000 relative to interstellar medium abundances and is optically thin. The continuum measurements are used to estimate the dust mass of the disks. We find a correlation between disk dust mass and stellar host mass consistent with a power-law relation of . Disk dust masses in Upper Sco are compared to those measured in the younger Taurus star-forming region to constrain the evolution of disk dust mass. We find that the difference in the mean of between Taurus and Upper Sco is 0.64 ± 0.09, such that M dust/M * is lower in Upper Sco by a factor of ∼4.5.

A census of dense cores in the Taurus L1495 cloud from theHerschelGould Belt Survey

We present a catalogue of dense cores in a $\sim 4^\circ\times2^\circ$ field of the Taurus star-forming region, inclusive of the L1495 cloud, derived from Herschel SPIRE and PACS observations in the 70 $\mu$m, 160 $\mu$m, 250 $\mu$m, 350 $\mu$m, and 500 $\mu$m continuum bands. Estimates of mean dust temperature and total mass are derived using modified blackbody fits to the spectral energy distributions. We detect 525 starless cores of which $\sim10$-20% are gravitationally bound and therefore presumably prestellar. Our census of unbound objects is $\sim85$% complete for $M>0.015\,M_\odot$ in low density regions ($A_V\stackrel{<}{_\sim}5$ mag), while the bound (prestellar) subset is $\sim85$% complete for $M>0.1\,M_\odot$ overall. The prestellar core mass function (CMF) is consistent with lognormal form, resembling the stellar system initial mass function, as has been reported previously. All of the inferred prestellar cores lie on filamentary structures whose column densities exceed the expected threshold for filamentary collapse, in agreement with previous reports. Unlike the prestellar CMF, the unbound starless CMF is not lognormal, but instead is consistent with a power-law form below $0.3\,M_\odot$ and shows no evidence for a low-mass turnover. It resembles previously reported mass distributions for CO clumps at low masses ($M\stackrel{<}{_\sim}0.3\,M_\odot$). The volume density PDF, however, is accurately lognormal except at high densities. It is consistent with the effects of self-gravity on magnetized supersonic turbulence. The only significant deviation from lognormality is a high-density tail which can be attributed unambiguously to prestellar cores.

The Age of Taurus: Environmental Effects on Disc Lifetimes

AbstractUsing semi-empirical isochrones, we find the age of the Taurus star-forming region to be 3-4 Myr. Comparing the disc fraction in Taurus to young massive clusters suggests discs survive longer in this low density environment. We also present a method of photometrically de-reddening young stars using iZJH data.

THE TRANSITIONAL DISK AROUND IRAS 04125+2902

Resolved submillimeter imaging of transitional disks is increasingly revealing the complexity of disk structure. Here we present the first high-resolution submillimeter image of a recently identified transitional disk around IRAS 04125+2902 in the Taurus star-forming region. We measure an inner disk hole of ~20 AU around IRAS 04125+2902 by simultaneously modeling new 880 micron Submillimeter Array (SMA) data along with an existing spectral energy distribution supplemented by new Discovery Channel Telescope (DCT) photometry. We also constrain the outer radius of the dust disk in IRAS~04125+2902 to ~50-60 AU. Such a small dust disk could be attributed to initial formation conditions, outward truncation by an unseen companion, or dust evolution in the disk. Notably, the dust distribution of IRAS 04125+2902 resembles a narrow ring (delta R ~ 35 AU) composed of large dust grains at the location of the disk wall. Such narrow dust rings are also seen in other transitional disks and may be evidence of dust trapping in pressure bumps, possibly produced by planetary companions. More sensitive submillimeter observations of the gas are necessary to further probe the physical mechanisms at work in shaping the spatial distribution of large dust in this disk. Interestingly, the IRAS 04125+2902 disk is significantly fainter than other transitional disks that have been resolved at submillimeter wavelengths, hinting that more objects with large disk holes may exist at the faint end of the submillimeter luminosity distribution that await detection with more sensitive imaging telescopes.

AN IMAGE-PLANE ALGORITHM FORJWST'S NON-REDUNDANT APERTURE MASK DATA

The high angular resolution technique of non-redundant masking (NRM) or aperture masking interferometry (AMI) has yielded images of faint protoplanetary companions of nearby stars from the ground. AMI on James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)'s Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (NIRISS) has a lower thermal background than ground-based facilites and does not suffer from atmospheric instability. NIRISS AMI images are likely to have 90 - 95% Strehl ratio between 2.77 and 4.8 micron. In this paper we quantify factors that limit the raw point source contrast of JWST NRM. We develop an analytic model of the NRM point spread function which includes different optical path delays (pistons) between mask holes and fit the model parameters with image plane data. It enables a straightforward way to exclude bad pixels, is suited to limited fields of view, and can incorporate effects such as intra-pixel sensitivity variations. We simulate various sources of noise to estimate their effect on the standard deviation of closure phase, sigma_CP (a proxy for binary point source contrast). If sigma_CP < 10^-4 radians --- a contrast ratio of 10 magnitudes --- young accreting gas giant planets (e.g. in the nearby Taurus star-forming region) could be imaged with JWST NIRISS. We show the feasibility of using NIRISS' NRM with the sub-Nyquist sampled F277W, which would enable some exoplanet chemistry characterization. In the presence of small piston errors, the dominant sources of closure phase error (depending on pixel sampling, and filter bandwidth) are flat field errors and unmodeled variations in intra-pixel sensitivity. The in-flight stability of NIRISS will determine how well these errors can be calibrated by observing a point source. Our results help develop efficient observing strategies for space-based NRM.