Targeting Monetary Policy Research Articles

Financial stability and monetary policy reaction: Evidence from the GCC countries

This paper investigates the interaction between monetary policy and financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (hereafter GCC) countries by introducing a new composite financial stability index to monitor the financial vulnerabilities and crisis periods. To this end, the study estimated monetary policy reaction functions for each GCC country (namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) over the period from 2006-Q4 to 2020-Q2. Empirical findings indicate that monetary authorities' response to the deviation of inflation from their target level, output gap, or exchange rate movement differ in magnitude, sign, and significance across the GCC countries. The results further explain that monetary authorities react significantly to negative or positive shocks to financial stability, but they react differently in the short or long term. Overall, an augmented Taylor rule including financial stability as an additional monetary policy target is more appropriate for the GCC countries.

The Determinants and Stability of Demand for Money: The Case of Azerbaijan

The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the determinants of demand for money and its stability in Azerbaijan using monthly time series data spanning from January 2006 to November 2020. Johansen cointegration, vector error correction model (VECM) and Impulse Response Function were employed to investigate the relationship between real money demand (M1), and macroeconomic variables, namely income, inflation, interest rate and exchange rate. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests were applied to check whether the money demand function was stable during the observed period. The results of Johansen cointegration reveal a long-run relationship between mentioned variables. Consistent with money demand theory, the VECM results show that the demand for real money balances is positively related to income but it responds inversely to inflation, interest rate and exchange rate. Impulse Response Function confirms the result of VECM. Moreover, after incorporating the stability tests, the empirical results show that real money demand function is stable over the observed period, suggesting possible use of the narrow money aggregate as a target of monetary policy in Azerbaijan.

WITHDRAWN: Monetary policy channels, sectoral outputs and sustainable growth in ECOWAS region: A rigorous analysis and implications for policy

The market-based monetary policy framework has been favoured by ECOWAS economies. Hence this study investigated the effect of monetary policy channels on the sectoral value added and sustainable economic growth in ECOWAS. Data from World Bank and International Monetary Fund over 2013 – 2019 were sourced for thirteen member countries. ECOWAS is found to have very high inflation level, interest and exchange rates. Furthermore, using the Driscoll-Kraay fixed-effects OLS estimator, the findings revealed that while the effect of monetary policy channels on the agricultural sector value added is largely heterogenous and significantly inelastic, the one on the industrial and services sectors are overwhelmingly homogeneous and negative, but insignificant for the services sector. Moreover, the effect of monetary policy channels on sustainable economic growth is also homogeneously asymmetric, with imminent stagflation, while the interactive effects of monetary policy channels are heterogeneous on sustainable economic growth and economic sectors. Therefore, an inflation targeting monetary policy stance is generally recommended with prioritised exchange rate stabilisation amid sufficient fiscal space.

Optimization of macroeconomic policy and stabilization of cyclical economic dynamics

This paper demonstrates that, despite the current mandate of monetary policy, its final goal (at least for central banks of developed countries) is the control of three main macroeconomic variables — economic growth, employment and inflation, — regardless on actual mandate for this policy. However, the priorities of realization of the final goal may face the imperfection of macroeconomic models and rules of monetary policy, which will make it impossible to control all three macroeconomic variables at the same time. The article proposes a new instrument for monetary policy — aggregate cumulative market imperfection — to optimize macroeconomic variables and stabilize cyclical economic dynamics. The author demonstrates the main competitive advantages of this instrument of monetary policy as compared with typical models of macroeconomic dynamics and simple rules of monetary policy (Simons, Friedman, and Taylor rules). In particular, this instrument is valid for any combination of market conditions, for any economy and for any moment of real time. It can be used simultaneously as: 1) a target of monetary policy; 2) a simple rule of monetary policy correction in the short-run; 3) a reaction function to evaluate a backward connection between the regulator’s actions and the effect of these actions on current economic situation; and 4) an instrument to stabilize cyclical economic dynamics; 5) an instrument to forecast starting (ending) point of recessions and shift in macroeconomic trends. If we can hold the aggregate cumulative market imperfection within a given optimal interval with the help of government regulations (i.e. to target this indicator only) using all possible instruments both of monetary, and (if necessary) of other kinds of regulation policy, we will be able to optimize all three main macroeconomic variables. Optimality of these variables means providing maximum economic growth and employment under comfortable inflation for any combination of market conditions and for any moment of calendar time, which will at the same time stabilize cyclical economic dynamics. In doing so, we will not target each of these three variables separately, that is, it is practically impossible to determine quantitatively their optimal values as they change permanently over time together with the constant change of current combination of market conditions.

Bank Revolving Credit as a Channel of Monetary Policy Targeting Interest Rates

This paper investigates the implication of bank revolving credit in the form of credit card loans as a channel of monetary policy targeting the federal funds rate since 1980. Credit cards have become increasingly popular and a necessity for many transactions and purchases in the United States. The revolving credit nature of credit card loans makes them an instant tool for consumer loans that can facilitate consumption. Using instrumental variable and two-stage least squares (2SLS) methodology, we analyze the implication of credit card loans to modern monetary policy that targets interest rates.

Оптимізація монетарної політики та стабілізація циклічної економічної динаміки

This paper demonstrates that, despite the current mandate of monetary policy, its final goal (at least for central banks of developed countries) is the control of three main macroeconomic variables — economic growth, employment and inflation, — regardless on actual mandate for this policy. However, the priorities of realization of the final goal may face the imperfection of macroeconomic models and rules of monetary policy, which will make it impossible to control all three macroeconomic variables at the same time. The article proposes a new instrument for monetary policy — aggregate cumulative market imperfection — to optimize macroeconomic variables and stabilize cyclical economic dynamics. The author demonstrates the main competitive advantages of this instrument of monetary policy as compared with typical models of macroeconomic dynamics and simple rules of monetary policy (Simons, Friedman, and Taylor rules). In particular, this instrument is valid for any combination of market conditions, for any economy and for any moment of real time. It can be used simultaneously as: 1) a target of monetary policy; 2) a simple rule of monetary policy correction in the short-run; 3) a reaction function to evaluate a backward connection between the regulator’s actions and the effect of these actions on current economic situation; and 4) an instrument to stabilize cyclical economic dynamics; 5) an instrument to forecast starting (ending) point of recessions and shift in macroeconomic trends. If we can hold the aggregate cumulative market imperfection within a given optimal interval with the help of government regulations (i.e. to target this indicator only) using all possible instruments both of monetary, and (if necessary) of other kinds of regulation policy, we will be able to optimize all three main macroeconomic variables. Optimality of these variables means providing maximum economic growth and employment under comfortable inflation for any combination of market conditions and for any moment of calendar time, which will at the same time stabilize cyclical economic dynamics. In doing so, we will not target each of these three variables separately, that is, it is practically impossible to determine quantitatively their optimal values as they change permanently over time together with the constant change of current combination of market conditions.

Monetary policy objectives and economic outcomes: What can we learn from a wavelet‐based optimal control approach?

AbstractIt has recently been widely recognized that monetary policy objectives change through time as our understanding of monetary policy and its impact on the macroeconomy evolves. In recent years there has been an extensive review of the framework for monetary policy at major central banks around the world, given the practical problems that have been encountered with inflation targets. This paper is a contribution to this debate, in that the aim of this paper is to evaluate the consequences of adopting different monetary policy objectives in the U.S. macroeconomic policy setting. To accomplish this, we first decompose U.S. macroeconomic data using a time‐frequency domain technique, namely discrete wavelet analysis. We then model the behavior of the U.S. economy over each wavelet frequency range and use our estimated parameters to construct a tracking model. To illustrate the usefulness of this approach, we simulate jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy with different short‐term monetary targets: an inflation target, a money growth target, an interest rate target, and a real economic growth target. The results show that the most effective monetary policy targets to achieve economic growth are either inflation targets or economic growth targets.

Impact of Inflation Targeting Policy Framework of Countries between the Period of 2009-2019

Today, many countries in the world tend to choose Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy Framework, in which context it has become a matter of debate whether inflation or economic growth is driven by monetary expansions. The common acceptance is that inflation is created by the continuous rise in the money supply which is strongly proved through the economic theories forwarded by Karl Marx, Irvin Fisher and Friedman. The main aim of the study is to examine the relationship between money supply and economic growth under a broad phenomenon by utilizing the countries with inflation targeting policies in action. The time-series data have been collected from different countries that exercise inflation targeting from 2009 to 2019 and the sample included 39 countries from all over the globe, both from developed and developing categories. The utilized Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model forwarded the results suggesting that there is a significant negative relationship between the economic growth and money supply in the long run while no relationship has been observed in the short run.

Velocity of Money in Ethiopia

Velocity of money is an important instrument used to measure the monetary target and quality of monetary policy. Referencing the trends in the money velocity, mainly in the short term, will have a paramount effect in determining the trends in real money growth. This study investigates the main causes of money velocity in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1974/75 to 2015/16. A regression with Bayesian estimation and nonparametric Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS) methods were used to analyze the data. Variables such as credit, real interest rate, real exchange rate and real per capita income were included as potential determinants of money velocity. The findings of using non-parametric LOWESS methods show an upward trends in the velocity of money since 2002 and downward trends before 2002, indicating the existence’s of prudent monetary policy in Ethiopia after 2002. The result also shows a positive effect of real exchange rate and credit, whereas income per capita and real interest rates have a negative effect on velocity of money in Ethiopia. Hence, this paper recommends that, the policy to encourage sustainable economic growth and increase in interest rate would be beneficial to reduce velocity of money.

Fractional cointegration between gold price and inflation rate: Implication for inflation rate persistence

In this study, we employ a recently developed Fractional Cointegrating Vector Autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze the relationship between gold price and inflation rate, to determine the responsiveness of inflation rate persistence of the selected countries to gold price shocks. Our analyses cover two decades; ranging from January 2001 to December 2019. We also account for country heterogeneity; specifically, due to variation in countries’ level of development, income level, and monetary policy framework. Our results suggest that the effect of gold price shock lingers for a long time on inflation rate persistence of developing countries, and for a short time on inflation rate persistence of developed countries. We also find that a higher level of income is associated with lower gold price – inflation rate cointegrating persistence, but the possibility of high-income countries having higher gold price – inflation rate cointegrating persistence than low-income countries cannot be dispelled. We also find that adoption of inflation targeting monetary policy reduces gold price – inflation rate cointegrating persistence and that gold price – inflation rate cointegrating persistence is higher under limited or intermediate floating exchange rate arrangement than under free-floating and currency peg arrangement.

Relevansi Konsep Moneter Islam M Umar Chapra dengan Kebikakan Moneter di Indonesia

In principle, the implementation of Islamic monetary policy according to M. Umer Chapra differs from conventional monetary policy, especially in the selection of targets and instruments. This study aims to determine the concept of the Islamic monetary system thought by M. Umer Chapra and its relevance to the Indonesian monetary system. The research methodology used in this research is library research. The data analysis technique used in this research is content analysis method.
 The Indonesian monetary system adheres to the ITF (Inflation Targeting Framework) framework, by setting inflation as the main target of monetary policy, and using the BI7DRR interest rate as a policy to control inflation in accordance with the target. The instruments used by Bank Indonesia to carry out its duties are Open Market Operations, Discount Facilities, Statutory Reserves, and Moral Appeals.

Constructing Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Singapore

Since Barnett derived the user cost price of money, the economic theory of monetary services aggregation has been developed and extended into a field of its own with solid foundations in microeconomic theory. Divisia monetary aggregates have repeatedly been shown to be strictly preferable to their simple sum counterparts, which have no competent foundations in microeconomic aggregation or index number theory. However, most central banks in the world, including that of Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), still report their monetary aggregates as simple summations. Recent macroeconomic research about Singapore tends to focus on exchange rates as a monetary policy target but ignores the aggregate quantity of money. Is that because quantities of money are irrelevant to economic activity? To examine the role of monetary quantities as potential monetary instruments, indicators, or targets and their relevance to predicting real economic activity in Singapore, this paper applies the user cost of money formula and the recently developed credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates formula to construct monetary services indexes for Singapore. We produce those state-of-the-art monetary services indexes from Jan 1991 to Mar 2021. We see that Divisia measures behave differently from simple sum measures in the period before the year 2000, while interest rates were high. Credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary services move closely with the conventional Divisia monetary aggregates, since the volume of credit card transactions in Singapore is relatively small compared with other monetary service assets. In future work, we plan to use our data to explore central bank policy in Singapore and to propose improvements in that policy. By making our data available to the public, we encourage others to do the same.

SAY NO TO INFLATION TARGETING: A CALL FOR THE ADAPTATION OF A ZERO-INTEREST REGIME

In its early history, monetary policy focused on numerous objectives, including stable growth, full employment, stable exchange rates and price stability. In the 1990s, many countries shifted their monetary policy framework from monetary aggregate/interest rate targeting to inflation targeting, in which inflation was regarded as the primary target of monetary policy, and interest rates the primary tool for achieving target inflation. Inflation targeting has diverted the focus of central banks from growth and employment to price stability. Unfortunately, there is considerable evidence which shows that inflation targeting frameworks are unable to control inflation in the way central banks want, and in fact lead to a greater departure from optimal growth and employment, the two key targets of sustainable development goals (SDGs). There is also evidence suggesting a strong association between inflation targeting and the move away from several other SDGs. Employing a systematic review of the related literature and Granger causality tests applied to data from various countries, this paper shows that inflation targeting fails to control inflation and has several undesirable impacts on a wide range of socioeconomic indicators. It is argued that the zero-interest regime is the optimal regime with respect to the impact on socioeconomic indicators, and also supports the interest free economy advocated by Islam.

Monetary policy and its transmission channels: Evidence from China

This paper examines the individual effect of the channels of monetary transmission (the asset price channel, the credit channel, the interest rate channel, and the exchange rate channel) in China using Impulse Response Separation Vector Auto Regression (IRSVAR) technique. The results are as follows: First, although China's market-oriented reform has been carried out for 40 years, the role of the neoclassical interest rate channel in the overall effect of monetary policy is still relatively low (31%). Second, although the relative role of the credit channel has declined, it remains, on average, the most important transmission channel (42%). It shows that there are still serious frictions in China's economy and that market-oriented reforms need to be further strengthened. Third, in general, the relative marginal role of asset price channels has risen significantly (20%), mainly because of the rapidly increasing wealth effect on households in China's stock and property markets. Since the exchange rate has been strictly controlled, the role of the exchange rate channel has always been unimportant (7%). These results have important policy implications: China has made progress to marketize the interest rate in the past years, however, it is necessary to further improve the comprehensive marketization mechanism, and the choice of the intermediate target of macro-prudential monetary policy should pay sufficient attention to the changes in asset prices.

Impact of fixed and flexible exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria: A VECM approach

The stability of exchange rate in Nigeria is a significant monetary policy target. The fact that monetary authorities in Nigeria have over the years made various efforts to minimize the huge divergence between the official, interbank/autonomous and parallel/ Bureau De change rates in Nigerian foreign exchange market through different exchange rates regimes such as the overall fixed and flexible exchange rates regimes overtime. Accordingly, this paper investigates the comparative analysis of the impact of fixed and flexible exchange rates management policies on economic growth of Nigeria for the period of 1980A-2016A: using vector error correction model (VECM). The empirical results indicated evidence of long run relationship among the variable of interest in the study and in all there is a positive impact of exchange rates management policies on economic growth of Nigeria. Another finding from the Granger causality test confirms a unidirectional short run causality that runs from real effective exchange rate (REER) to economic growth (RGDP). In addition, unidirectional causality that runs from oil price (OPR) to real interest rate (RIR) in Nigeria also exists. However, the need for policy intervention to review and correct the foreign exchange market segments distortions is highly recommended. Again, the Nigerian economy needs a standard set of export base diversification from its mono cultural oil export in order to boost the foreign exchange earnings of the Nigerian economy.

Analisis perbedaan pengaruh kebijakan suku bunga bank sentral terhadap inflasi di Indonesia

The purposes of this study are (1) to analyze the effect of the BI rate on inflation (2) to analyze the effect of the BI 7 day reverse repo rate on inflation (3) to analyze the different effects of the BI rate and the BI 7 day reverse repo rate on inflation. The method used in this study uses secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Indonesian financial economy. The analysis of this study with vector autoregressive (VAR) using the Eviews 10 software program, results of the study analyzed that the difference in the influence of the central bank's interest rate policy on inflation in Indonesia, that the BI rate of interest on inflation had a positive and significant effect with a benchmark of 5% or 0.005%, the analysis on the BI 7 day reverse repo rate is not significant at the benchmark of 5% or 0.005% but has a positive effect in reducing inflation in Indonesia which reflects price stability as the final target of monetary policy. Keywords: BI rate, BI 7 day reverse repo rate, Inflation, Vector autoregressive (VAR)

Effects of Some Monetary Policy Targets on Inflation and Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria

The persistent inflationary pressure despite monetary policy targets has become a phenomenon of interest among researchers. The study investigates the effects of monetary policy targets on inflation and its volatility in Nigeria using data spanning from 1985 to 2019. The ADF unit root test used confirmed that all the variables under study are integrated order zero in their level series. A Comparison of inflation volatility models (ARCH and GARCH models) with appropriate error distribution using AIC indicated that ARCH (1) is most appropriate. The results of least squares (LS) and maximum likelihood (ML) ARCH methods of estimation for the model specifications showed that measures of monetary policy targets such as narrow money supply (M1), broad money supply(M2), net domestic credit(NDC), net credit to government(NCG) and credit to private sector(CPS) have no significant effect on inflation and inflation volatility respectively except M2. However, M2 effect spurs inflation rather than curbing it. Hence, it becomes imperative for the government to make proactive policies targeted to reduce inflationary pressures so as to attain price stability in Nigeria’s economic space. Keywords: monetary policy targets, inflation, Volatility models.

Commodities and monetary policy: Implications for inflation and price level targeting

We examine the relative ability of inflation targeting and price level targeting monetary policy rules to minimize inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in a commodity-exporting country for supply and demand shocks to global commodity markets. The macroeconomic consequences of oil and non-oil primary commodities differ and affect the relative merits of the alternative monetary policy frameworks. Particularly, the consumption of refined oil products and demand-driven commodity price movements induce highly persistent inflation pressures resulting in a significant deterioration of the inflation-output gap trade-off available to central banks. When such terms-of-trade shocks are prevalent, price level targeting is inferior to inflation targeting.

The Practice of Flexible Inflation Targeting in India – A Preliminary Assessment

This paper examines how the new flexible inflation targeting framework has worked in practice in India, five years after it was introduced. The policy decisions taken by the Reserve Bank of India are analysed on four fronts — the trajectory of inflation, the inflation forecasting record, the voting behaviour of the monetary policy committee, and the ability to keep the weighted average call money rate within the policy corridor. These four themes represent the formal nominal anchor, the intermediate target, the central bank response function and the operating target of monetary policy. Each is a building block of the flexible inflation targeting framework. The paper then offers some suggestions on the road ahead for monetary policy practice in India, both given the experience of the past five years as well as the Covid-19 shock to the Indian economy.

The regulatory and policy variables influencing FDI in South Africa

This paper dealt with the regulatory and policy variables influencing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in South Africa. Since the advent of democracy 26 years ago, South Africa had its own share of benefits from democratic rule. This was the period of great success, and three free and fair elections were held without violence and intimidation. The South African government started using the “inflation targeting monetary policy framework” to have an environment where inflation will stabilise. Although in literature it is stated that many governments have adopted this policy in order to lure investors in through their attractive risk‐free returns in their investment portfolios. The paper used unobtrusive techniques to analyse secondary data. The South African investment climate remains faced with challenges, which curtail the full attainment of conditions conducive for quality FDI. When regulations are made less cumbersome, it becomes simpler for investment to flow into the country, and international and local entrepreneurs prosper as the ease of doing business improves. South Africa does not have a complex regulatory framework, but its challenges stem from a lack of regulatory transparency, which impeded investment. TISA the agency, which DTI created to reduce obstacles encountered in FDI offers foreign investors clarification on the regulatory and legal environment. Many countries have also cancelled their BITs with South Africa, including Ecuador, Bolivia, and Venezuela. South Africa's business environment and its investment climate are largely dependent on the events that occur in the political arena and the economic environment.