Tape Recorder Signal Research Articles

Comparison of the H2O, HDO and δD stratospheric climatologies between the MIPAS-ESA V8, MIPAS-IMK V5 and ACE-FTS V4.1/4.2 satellite datasets

Abstract. Variations in the isotopologic composition of water vapour are fundamental for understanding the relative importance of different mechanisms of water vapour transport from the tropical upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere. Previous comparisons obtained from observations of H2O and HDO by satellite instruments showed discrepancies. In this work, newer versions of H2O and HDO retrievals from Envisat/MIPAS and SCISAT/ACE-FTS are compared. Specifically, MIPAS-IMK V5, MIPAS-ESA V8 and ACE-FTS V4.1/4.2 for the common period from February 2004 to April 2012 are compared for the first time through a profile-to-profile approach and comparison based on climatological structures. The comparison is essential for the scientific community to assess the quality of new satellite data products, a necessary procedure to validate further scientific work. Averaged stratospheric H2O profiles reveal general good agreement between 16 and 30 km. Biases derived from the profile-to-profile comparison are around zero between 16 and 30 km for MIPAS-IMK and ACE-FTS comparison. For HDO and δD, low biases are found in the MIPAS-ESA and ACE-FTS comparison in the same range of altitudes, even if associated with a larger de-biased standard deviation. The zonally averaged cross sections of H2O and HDO exhibit the expected distribution that has been established in previous studies. For δD the tropical depletion in MIPAS-ESA occurs at the top of the dynamical tropopause, but this minimum is found at higher altitudes in the ACE-FTS and MIPAS-IMK dataset. The tape recorder signal is present in H2O and HDO for the three databases with slight quantitative differences. The δD annual variation for ACE-FTS data and MIPAS-ESA data is weaker compared to the MIPAS-IMK dataset, which shows a coherent tape recorder signal clearly detectable up to at least 30 km. The observed differences in the climatological δD composites between databases could lead to different interpretations regarding the water vapour transport processes toward the stratosphere. Therefore, it is important to further improve the quality of level 2 products.

The impact of volcanic eruptions of different magnitude on stratospheric water vapor in the tropics

Abstract. Increasing the temperature of the tropical cold-point region through heating by volcanic aerosols results in increases in the entry value of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and subsequent changes in the atmospheric energy budget. We analyze tropical volcanic eruptions of different strengths with sulfur (S) injections ranging from 2.5 Tg S up to 40 Tg S using EVAens, the 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model in its low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) with artificial volcanic forcing generated by the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) tool. Significant increases in SWV are found for the mean over all ensemble members from 2.5 Tg S onward ranging between [5, 160] %. However, for single ensemble members, the standard deviation between the control run members (0 Tg S) is larger than SWV increase of single ensemble members for eruption strengths up to 20 Tg S. A historical simulation using observation-based forcing files of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which was estimated to have emitted (7.5±2.5) Tg S, returns SWV increases slightly higher than the 10 Tg S EVAens simulations due to differences in the aerosol profile shape. An additional amplification of the tape recorder signal is also apparent, which is not present in the 10 Tg S run. These differences underline that it is not only the eruption volume but also the aerosol layer shape and location with respect to the cold point that have to be considered for post-eruption SWV increases. The additional tropical clear-sky SWV forcing for the different eruption strengths amounts to [0.02, 0.65] W m−2, ranging between [2.5, 4] % of the aerosol radiative forcing in the 10 Tg S scenario. The monthly cold-point temperature increases leading to the SWV increase are not linear with respect to aerosol optical depth (AOD) nor is the corresponding SWV forcing, among others, due to hysteresis effects, seasonal dependencies, aerosol profile heights and feedbacks. However, knowledge of the cold-point temperature increase allows for an estimation of SWV increases of 12 % per Kelvin increase in mean cold-point temperature. For yearly averages, power functions are fitted to the cold-point warming and SWV forcing with increasing AOD.

A reassessment of the discrepancies in the annual variation of δD-H2O in the tropical lower stratosphere between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS satellite data sets

Abstract. The annual variation of δD in the tropical lower stratosphere is a critical indicator for the relative importance of different processes contributing to the transport of water vapour through the cold tropical tropopause region into the stratosphere. Distinct observational discrepancies of the δD annual variation were visible in the works of Steinwagner et al. (2010) and Randel et al. (2012). Steinwagner et al. (2010) analysed MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) observations retrieved with the IMK/IAA (Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung in Karlsruhe, Germany, in collaboration with the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía in Granada, Spain) processor, while Randel et al. (2012) focused on ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer) observations. Here we reassess the discrepancies based on newer MIPAS (IMK/IAA) and ACE-FTS data sets, also showing for completeness results from SMR (Sub-Millimetre Radiometer) observations and a ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg and Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) simulation (Eichinger et al., 2015b). Similar to the old analyses, the MIPAS data set yields a pronounced annual variation (maximum about 75 ‰), while that derived from the ACE-FTS data set is rather weak (maximum about 25 ‰). While all data sets exhibit the phase progression typical for the tape recorder, the annual maximum in the ACE-FTS data set precedes that in the MIPAS data set by 2 to 3 months. We critically consider several possible reasons for the observed discrepancies, focusing primarily on the MIPAS data set. We show that the δD annual variation in the MIPAS data up to an altitude of 40 hPa is substantially impacted by a “start altitude effect”, i.e. dependency between the lowermost altitude where MIPAS retrievals are possible and retrieved data at higher altitudes. In itself this effect does not explain the differences with the ACE-FTS data. In addition, there is a mismatch in the vertical resolution of the MIPAS HDO and H2O data (being consistently better for HDO), which actually results in an artificial tape-recorder-like signal in δD. Considering these MIPAS characteristics largely removes any discrepancies between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets and shows that the MIPAS data are consistent with a δD tape recorder signal with an amplitude of about 25 ‰ in the lowermost stratosphere.

Role of vertical and horizontal mixing in the tape recorder signal near the tropical tropopause

Abstract. Nearly all air enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL therefore exerts a control on stratospheric chemistry and climate. The hemispheric meridional overturning (Brewer–Dobson) circulation spreads this TTL influence upward and poleward. Stratospheric water vapor concentrations are set near the tropical tropopause and are nearly conserved in the lowermost stratosphere. The resulting upward propagating tracer transport signal of seasonally varying entry concentrations is known as the tape recorder signal. Here, we study the roles of vertical and horizontal mixing in shaping the tape recorder signal in the tropical lowermost stratosphere, focusing on the 80 hPa level. We analyze the tape recorder signal using data from satellite observations, a reanalysis, and a chemistry–climate model (CCM). By modifying past methods, we are able to capture the seasonal cycle of effective vertical transport velocity in the tropical lowermost stratosphere. Effective vertical transport velocities are found to be multiple times stronger than residual vertical velocities for the reanalysis and the CCM. We also study the tape recorder signal in an idealized 1-D transport model. By performing a parameter sweep, we test a range of different strengths of transport contributions by vertical advection, vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing. By introducing seasonality into the transport strengths, we find that the most successful simulation of the observed tape recorder signal requires vertical mixing at 80 hPa that is multiple times stronger compared to previous estimates in the literature. Vertical mixing is especially important during boreal summer when vertical advection is weak. Simulating the reanalysis tape recorder requires excessive amounts of vertical mixing compared to observations but also to the CCM, which hints at the role of spurious dispersion due to data assimilation. Contrasting the results between pressure and isentropic coordinates allows for further insights into quasi-adiabatic vertical mixing, e.g., associated with overshooting convection or breaking gravity waves. Horizontal mixing, which takes place primarily along isentropes due to Rossby wave breaking, is captured more consistently in isentropic coordinates. Overall, our study emphasizes the role of vertical mixing in lowermost tropical stratospheric transport, which appears to be as important as vertical advection by the residual mass circulation. This questions the perception of the tape recorder as a manifestation of slow upward transport as opposed to a phenomenon influenced by quick and intense transport through mixing, at least near the tape head. However, due to the limitations of the observational dataset used and the simplicity of the applied transport model, further work is required to more clearly specify the role of vertical mixing in lowermost stratospheric transport in the tropics.

Simulation of the isotopic composition of stratospheric water vapour – Part 2: Investigation of HDO / H<sub>2</sub>O variations

Abstract. Studying the isotopic composition of water vapour in the lower stratosphere can reveal the driving mechanisms of changes in the stratospheric water vapour budget and therefore help to explain the trends and variations of stratospheric water vapour during recent decades. We equipped a global chemistry climate model with a description of the water isotopologue HDO, comprising its physical and chemical fractionation effects throughout the hydrological cycle. We use this model to improve our understanding of the processes which determine the patterns in the stratospheric water isotope composition and in the water vapour budget itself. The link between the water vapour budget and its isotopic composition in the tropical stratosphere is presented through their correlation in a simulated 21-year time series. The two quantities depend on the same processes; however, they are influenced with different strengths. A sensitivity experiment shows that fractionation effects during the oxidation of methane have a damping effect on the stratospheric tape recorder signal in the water isotope ratio. Moreover, the chemically produced high water isotope ratios overshadow the tape recorder in the upper stratosphere. Investigating the origin of the boreal-summer signal of isotopically enriched water vapour reveals that in-mixing of old stratospheric air from the extratropics and the intrusion of tropospheric water vapour into the stratosphere complement each other in order to create the stratospheric isotope ratio tape recorder signal. For this, the effect of ice lofting in monsoon systems is shown to play a crucial role. Furthermore, we describe a possible pathway of isotopically enriched water vapour through the tropopause into the tropical stratosphere.

Seasonal and interannual variations in HCN amounts in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed by MIPAS

Abstract. We present a HCN climatology of the years 2002–2012, derived from FTIR limb emission spectra measured with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the ENVISAT satellite, with the main focus on biomass burning signatures in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. HCN is an almost unambiguous tracer of biomass burning with a tropospheric lifetime of 5–6 months and a stratospheric lifetime of about 2 years. The MIPAS climatology is in good agreement with the HCN distribution obtained by the spaceborne ACE-FTS experiment and with airborne in situ measurements performed during the INTEX-B campaign. The HCN amounts observed by MIPAS in the southern tropical and subtropical upper troposphere have an annual cycle peaking in October–November, i.e. 1–2 months after the maximum of southern hemispheric fire emissions. The probable reason for the time shift is the delayed onset of deep convection towards austral summer. Because of overlap of varying biomass burning emissions from South America and southern Africa with sporadically strong contributions from Indonesia, the size and strength of the southern hemispheric plume have considerable interannual variations, with monthly mean maxima at, for example, 14 km between 400 and more than 700 pptv. Within 1–2 months after appearance of the plume, a considerable portion of the enhanced HCN is transported southward to as far as Antarctic latitudes. The fundamental period of HCN variability in the northern upper troposphere is also an annual cycle with varying amplitude, which in the tropics peaks in May after and during the biomass burning seasons in northern tropical Africa and southern Asia, and in the subtropics peaks in July due to trapping of pollutants in the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). However, caused by extensive biomass burning in Indonesia and by northward transport of part of the southern hemispheric plume, northern HCN maxima also occur around October/November in several years, which leads to semi-annual cycles. There is also a temporal shift between enhanced HCN in northern low and mid- to high latitudes, indicating northward transport of pollutants. Due to additional biomass burning at mid- and high latitudes, this meridional transport pattern is not as clear as in the Southern Hemisphere. Upper tropospheric HCN volume mixing ratios (VMRs) above the tropical oceans decrease to below 200 pptv, presumably caused by ocean uptake, especially during boreal winter and spring. The tropical stratospheric tape recorder signal with an apparently biennial period, which was detected in MLS and ACE-FTS data from mid-2004 to mid-2007, is corroborated by MIPAS HCN data. The tape recorder signal in the whole MIPAS data set exhibits periodicities of 2 and 4 years, which are generated by interannual variations in biomass burning. The positive anomalies of the years 2003, 2007 and 2011 are caused by succession of strongly enhanced HCN from southern hemispheric and Indonesian biomass burning in boreal autumn and of elevated HCN from northern tropical Africa and the AMA in subsequent spring and summer. The anomaly of 2005 seems to be due to springtime emissions from tropical Africa followed by release from the summertime AMA. The vertical transport time of the anomalies is 1 month or less between 14 and 17 km in the upper troposphere and 8–11 months between 17 and 25 km in the lower stratosphere.

Model study of the impacts of emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on the CO variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is used to investigate the relative importance of CO emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on temporal variations of CO in the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS). The semi-annual oscillation (SAO) in the tropical UT and the annual oscillation (AO) in the tropical LS detected in the MLS CO observations can be well captured by the model. The model simulations reveal that the CO surface emissions explain most of the SAO signals in the tropical UT, with the remainder being attributed to dynamical and chemical processes. The CO AO in the LS primarily results from combined effects of dynamical and chemical processes while the dynamical and chemical processes make opposite contributions to the CO AO signals, consistent with the previous findings. Our analysis further reveals that CO surface emissions tend to weaken the amplitude of the CO annual cycle in the tropical LS, while the annual variations in the meridional component of the Brewer–Dobson (BD) circulation can amplify the annual variations of CO above 30 hPa. The model simulations also indicate that the CO annual cycle in the LS has a mixed behaviour with the annual variations of tropical upwelling reflected in CO between ~70 and ~50 hPa and a standard tape-recorder signal above 50 hPa. Moreover, the AO signals of CO exist up to 10 hPa when the chemical processes are switched off. The temporal and spatial variations of CO in the UT and near the tropopause are mainly driven by the upward transport of CO by tropical deep convection and the Asian summer monsoon circulation. In the early stage of the South Asian summer monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and the South China in the late spring and early summer, the transport of the CO surface emissions over Southeast Asia by the South Asian summer monsoon leads to an increase in the tropical CO, but the horizontal transport from the extratropics into the tropics (termed in-mixing) driven by the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone in the boreal summer decreases the tropical CO.

The generic MESSy submodel TENDENCY (v1.0) for process-based analyses in Earth system models

Abstract. The tendencies of prognostic variables in Earth system models are usually only accessible, e.g. for output, as a sum over all physical, dynamical and chemical processes at the end of one time integration step. Information about the contribution of individual processes to the total tendency is lost, if no special precautions are implemented. The knowledge on individual contributions, however, can be of importance to track down specific mechanisms in the model system. We present the new MESSy (Modular Earth Submodel System) infrastructure submodel TENDENCY and use it exemplarily within the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model to trace process-based tendencies of prognostic variables. The main idea is the outsourcing of the tendency accounting for the state variables from the process operators (submodels) to the TENDENCY submodel itself. In this way, a record of the tendencies of all process–prognostic variable pairs can be stored. The selection of these pairs can be specified by the user, tailor-made for the desired application, in order to minimise memory requirements. Moreover, a standard interface allows the access to the individual process tendencies by other submodels, e.g. for on-line diagnostics or for additional parameterisations, which depend on individual process tendencies. An optional closure test assures the correct treatment of tendency accounting in all submodels and thus serves to reduce the model's susceptibility. TENDENCY is independent of the time integration scheme and therefore the concept is applicable to other model systems as well. Test simulations with TENDENCY show an increase of computing time for the EMAC model (in a setup without atmospheric chemistry) of 1.8 ± 1% due to the additional subroutine calls when using TENDENCY. Exemplary results reveal the dissolving mechanisms of the stratospheric tape recorder signal in height over time. The separation of the tendency of the specific humidity into the respective processes (large-scale clouds, convective clouds, large-scale advection, vertical diffusion and methane oxidation) show that the upward propagating water vapour signal dissolves mainly because of the chemical and the advective contribution. The TENDENCY submodel is part of version 2.42 or later of MESSy.

Simulation of stratospheric water vapor and trends using three reanalyses

Abstract. The domain-filling, forward trajectory calculation model developed by Schoeberl and Dessler (2011) is extended to the 1979–2010 period. We compare results from NASA's MERRA, NCEP's CFSR, and ECMWF's ERAi reanalyses with HALOE, MLS, and balloon observations. The CFSR based simulation produces a wetter stratosphere than MERRA, and ERAi produces a drier stratosphere than MERRA. We find that ERAi 100 hPa temperatures are cold biased compared to Singapore sondes and MERRA, which explains the ERAi result, and the CFSR grid does not resolve the cold point tropopause, which explains its relatively higher water vapor concentration. The pattern of dehydration locations is also different among the three reanalyses. ERAi dehydration pattern stretches across the Pacific while CFSR and MERRA concentrate dehydration activity in the West Pacific. CSFR and ERAi also show less dehydration activity in the West Pacific Southern Hemisphere than MERRA. The trajectory models' lower northern high latitude stratosphere tends to be dry because too little methane-derived water descends from the middle stratosphere. Using the MLS tropical tape recorder signal, we find that MERRA vertical ascent is 15% too weak while ERAi is 30% too strong. The trajectory model reproduces the observed reduction in the amplitude of the 100-hPa annual cycle in zonal mean water vapor as it propagates to middle latitudes. Finally, consistent with the observations, the models show less than 0.2 ppm decade−1 trend in water vapor both at mid-latitudes and in the tropics.

Dehydration of the stratosphere

Abstract. Domain filling, forward trajectory calculations are used to examine the global dehydration processes that control stratospheric water vapor. As with most Lagrangian models of this type, water vapor is instantaneously removed from the parcel to keep the relative humidity (RH) with respect to ice from exceeding saturation or a specified super-saturation value. We also test a simple parameterization of stratospheric convective moistening through ice lofting and the effect of gravity waves as a mechanism that can augment dehydration. Comparing diabatic and kinematic trajectories driven by the MERRA reanalysis, we find that, unlike the results from Liu et al. (2010), the additional transport due to the vertical velocity "noise" in the kinematic calculation creates too dry a stratosphere and a too diffuse a water-vapor tape recorder signal compared observations. We also show that the kinematically driven parcels are more likely to encounter the coldest tropopause temperatures than the diabatic trajectories. The diabatic simulations produce stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios close to that observed by Aura's Microwave Limb Sounder and are consistent with the MERRA tropical tropopause temperature biases. Convective moistening, which will increase stratospheric HDO, also increases stratospheric water vapor while the addition of parameterized gravity waves does the opposite. We find that while the Tropical West Pacific is the dominant dehydration location, but dehydration over Tropical South America is also important. Antarctica makes a small contribution to the overall stratospheric water vapor budget as well by releasing very dry air into the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere following the break up of the winter vortex.

Seasonal to decadal variations of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere observed with balloon‐borne cryogenic frost point hygrometers

We investigated water vapor variations in the tropical lower stratosphere on seasonal, quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), and decadal time scales using balloon‐borne cryogenic frost point hygrometer data taken between 1993 and 2009 during various campaigns including the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment (March 1993), campaigns once or twice annually during the Soundings of Ozone and Water in the Equatorial Region (SOWER) project in the eastern Pacific (1998–2003) and in the western Pacific and Southeast Asia (2001–2009), and the Ticosonde campaigns and regular sounding at Costa Rica (2005–2009). Quasi‐regular sounding data taken at Costa Rica clearly show the tape recorder signal. The observed ascent rates agree well with the ones from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) satellite sensor. Average profiles from the recent five SOWER campaigns in the equatorial western Pacific in northern winter and from the three Ticosonde campaigns at Costa Rica (10°N) in northern summer clearly show two effects of the QBO. One is the vertical displacement of water vapor profiles associated with the QBO meridional circulation anomalies, and the other is the concentration variations associated with the QBO tropopause temperature variations. Time series of cryogenic frost point hygrometer data averaged in a lower stratospheric layer together with HALOE and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder data show the existence of decadal variations: The mixing ratios were higher and increasing in the 1990s, lower in the early 2000s, and probably slightly higher again or recovering after 2004. Thus linear trend analysis is not appropriate to investigate the behavior of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor.

What causes the irregular cycle of the atmospheric tape recorder signal in HCN?

Variations in the mixing ratio of long‐lived trace gases entering the stratosphere in the tropics are carried upward with the rising air with the signal being observable throughout the tropical lower stratosphere. This phenomenon, referred to as “atmospheric tape recorder” has previously been observed for water vapor, CO2, and CO which exhibit an annual cycle. Recently, based on Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE‐FTS) satellite measurements, the tape recorder signal has been observed for hydrogen cyanide (HCN) but with an approximately two‐year period. Here we report on a model simulation of the HCN tape recorder for the time period 2002–2008 using the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). The model can reproduce the observed pattern of the HCN tape recorder signal if time‐resolved emissions from fires in Indonesia are used as lower boundary condition. This finding indicates that inter‐annual variations in biomass burning in Indonesia, which are strongly influenced by El Niño events, control the HCN tape recorder signal. A longer time series of tropical HCN data will probably exhibit an irregular cycle rather than a regular biannual cycle.

On the quality of the Nimbus 7 LIMS Version 6 water vapor profiles and distributions

Abstract. This report describes the quality of the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) water vapor (H2O) profiles of 1978/79 that were processed with a Version 6 (V6) algorithm and archived in 2002. The V6 profiles incorporate a better knowledge of the instrument attitude for the LIMS measurements along its orbits, leading to improvements for its temperature profiles and for the registration of its water vapor radiances with pressure. As a result, the LIMS V6 zonal-mean distributions of H2O exhibit better hemispheric symmetry than was the case from the original Version 5 (V5) dataset that was archived in 1982. Estimates of the precision and accuracy of the V6 H2O profiles are developed and provided. Individual profiles have a precision of order 5% and an estimated accuracy of about 19% at 3 hPa, 14% at 10 hPa, and 26% at 50 hPa. Profile segments within about 2 km of the tropopause are often affected by emissions from clouds that appear in the finite field-of-view of the detector for the LIMS H2O channel. Zonally-averaged distributions of the LIMS V6 H2O are compared with those from the more recent Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite experiment for November, February, and May of 2004/05. The patterns and values of their respective distributions are similar in many respects. Effects of a strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation are indicated in the MLS distributions of the recent decade versus those of LIMS from 1978/79. A tropical tape recorder signal is present in the 7-month time series of LIMS V6 H2O with lowest values in February 1979, and the estimated, annually-averaged "entry-level" H2O is 3.5 to 3.8 ppmv. It is judged that this historic LIMS water vapor dataset is of good quality for studies of the near global-scale chemistry and transport for pressure levels from 3 hPa to about 70 to 100 hPa.

Radiative effect of ozone change on stratosphere‐troposphere exchange

The potential radiative impact of ozone changes on stratosphere‐troposphere exchange (STE) is investigated by a series of climate model simulations. The impact of an arbitrary 15% O3 change on temperature, stratospheric water vapor, and cross‐tropopause mass flux are compared to the corresponding effects from a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Our analysis shows that a 15% global O3 decrease can cause a maximum cooling of 2.4 K in the stratosphere and ∼7.2% increase in the tropical upwelling. This cooling also results in a higher tropical tropopause and lower tropopause temperatures, and hence less stratospheric water vapor and smaller amplitude of the so‐called tape recorder signal. A global 15% O3 increase gives rise to ∼2.1 K stratospheric warming and ∼4% decrease in the tropical upwelling. This O3 increase results in more water vapor entering the stratosphere owing to a lower tropopause and higher tropopause temperatures. The effect of a ±15% change in O3 below 100 hPa is relatively small. However, the effect of a 15% O3 increase between 200 and 70 hPa is similar to that of a 15% O3 increase through the whole domain, suggesting that ozone increases in the UTLS dominate the impacts on temperature and tropical upwelling. Sea surface temperature (SST) changes associated with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) have a profound impact on the STE. Without corresponding SST changes, the radiative effects of the CO2 doubling on the STE is less significant than a global 15% O3 increase. When the SST changes are considered in the doubled CO2 experiment, the tropical upwelling is significantly increased (by 20.4%) with a much higher, but warmer, tropopause.

Stratospheric transport using 6‐h‐averaged winds from a data assimilation system

Stratospheric transport calculated using assimilated winds has been shown to be too fast in many cases, because of excessive mixing and an overstrong residual circulation. It is shown that the use of 6‐h‐averaged wind fields instead of instantaneous analyses can substantially reduce this problem for NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS‐4) sequential data assimilation system. Two examples are used to illustrate impacts in an off‐line chemistry transport model. An age‐of‐air computation shows that the stratosphere becomes substantially older when time‐averaged winds are used, yet still not as old as that determined from observations. An ozone assimilation experiment reveals improvements in the spatial structure of assimilated ozone, better agreement with independent observations, and a 40–60% reduction in observation‐minus‐forecast residuals. The averaged meteorological fields have also been incorporated in the on‐line transport computations: This is equivalent to using a 6‐h square‐wave filter at the analysis times. Sub‐6‐h noise in the system is substantially reduced with this approach. Two additional examples of transport are shown. A simulation of 2004–2005 shows that the descent of N2O in the Arctic polar vortex is represented more accurately than in previous studies. A tape recorder signal is evident in the tropical moisture; it ascends about 30% faster than that in the real atmosphere. In summary, the use of 6‐h‐averaged winds substantially improves the transport characteristics of the assimilated data, although the circulation remains too fast.

Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

Abstract. The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv) periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

Mean age of air and transport in a CTM: Comparison of different ECMWF analyses

A comparison of the stratospheric circulation achieved by various data assimilation winds has been performed using multiannual simulations of the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT off‐line 3‐D chemical transport model (CTM). Data from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the U.K. Met Office (UKMO) have been used to drive the CTM. We find that important improvements have been made in the ECMWF stratospheric winds during recent years. Therefore, a more realistic Brewer‐Dobson (B‐D) circulation, and subtropical mixing are achieved when ECMWF operational or new interim reanalyses are used instead of ERA‐40 analyses. Age‐of‐air and trajectory calculations show that more realistic vertical and horizontal transport is achieved with the new ECMWF assimilated winds. The modelled tape recorder signal further shows the improvement in the tropical transport with the new winds. Overall, these results show that with the recent ECMWF reanalyses, off‐line CTMs can produce stratospheric tracer transport over multiannual timescales more realistically than with other previous (re)analyses. Reasons for the improvements in the new reanalysis are discussed.

Modeling Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) water vapor is investigated using a general circulation model, the Community Atmosphere Model 3.0 (CAM3.0). Seasonal variability in UTLS water vapor, temperature and zonal wind, based on model simulation results for the period 1991-2000, are analyzed. Results are validated against satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and ERA-40 reanalyzes from ECMWF. The model captures the seasonal cycle in temperature as well as water vapor. The zonal wind deviates from the reanalysis data in the tropics as the model is not able to reproduce the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Outside the tropics, the zonal wind corresponds very well with the ERA-40 zonal wind. The model is able to reproduce the seasonal signal in the tropical stratospheric water vapor; i.e., the Tape Recorder Signal. This indicates a realistic Brewer-Dobson circulation in the model. However, the Tape Recorder signal attenuates too fast compared to the HALOE data, suggesting a too strong horizontal mixing between the tropical stratosphere and mid latitudes. CAM3.0 shows considerable improvements in UTLS temperatures as well as water vapor compared to earlier generations of the NCAR general circulation models.

Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry‐climate model simulations of the recent past

Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry‐climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long‐term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high‐latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long‐term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.

The carbon monoxide tape recorder

Using Aura MLS data we have identified the stratospheric ‘tape recorder’ in carbon monoxide (CO). Unlike the water vapor tape recorder, which is forced by the upper tropospheric seasonal variation in dehydration processes, the CO tape recorder is linked to seasonal changes in biomass burning. Since CO has a chemical lifetime of only a few months, the CO tape recorder barely extends above 20 km. The tape head for CO appears to be close to 360 K near the same location as the water vapor tape head (Read et al., 2004). Both tape heads are below the equatorial cold point tropopause but above the base of the tropical tropopause layer. The Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model forced by the climatology of biomass burning reproduces the CO tape recorder. The tape recorder signal in the GMI model becomes more distinct from 360 K to 380 K suggesting that convective detrainment plays a decreasingly important role with altitude.