Tampa Bay Research Articles

Leading with compassion and passion: A case study on servant leadership at the Crisis Center of Tampa Bay

Research methodology This case was written using primary data through various channels, including in-depth structured interviews with the CEO and other individuals at the Crisis Center of Tampa Bay (CCTB), as well as exchanging email messages and phone conversations with employees at CCTB. All interviews were recorded and transcribed. In addition, one of the authors took a tour of the main offices of CCTB and took notes on the physical facilities as well as the information provided by the tour guide. Public information from CCTB was used to enhance the information and provide background. All accounts presented in this case are real, and no information was altered or fabricated. Case overview/synopsis Clara Reynolds had been CEO of CCTB for over eight years. The agency had almost tripled its budget in the time she had been there. Her leadership style had positively impacted the culture of the organization. Employees valued her open and transparent leadership style. Employees saw her commitment to training employees, creating work–life balance and helping employees be exceptional at their jobs. There was an issue, however, with Transcare, the organization’s ambulatory service. The performance of the business was declining, and Clara wanted to update the board within 60 days at the next quarterly board meeting. She was not sure what she could do to increase engagement with Transcare’s staff, which would show the board that the staff was fully willing to do what was necessary. Complexity academic level This case is appropriate for teaching undergraduate or graduate-level courses in leadership, organizational behavior or principles of management. It is designed to be discussed during one class period. It will save time and improve the flow if the students read the case before class and are prepared when they arrive. Any information needed for the case discussion has been presented in the case; no further research by the students is necessary. Students should think about the role of leadership in a nonprofit. They should put themselves in the protagonist’s shoes throughout the reading of the case.

Transformative Impacts of Sea-Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Wetland Migration on Intertidal Native Shell-Bearing Sites in Florida’s Largest Open-Water Estuary, Tampa Bay, Florida, USA

Transformative Impacts of Sea-Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Wetland Migration on Intertidal Native Shell-Bearing Sites in Florida’s Largest Open-Water Estuary, Tampa Bay, Florida, USA

Dear Tampa Bay: Creating and Leveraging a Climate Resilience Documentary Film Using Story-Telling for Citizen Engagement

ABSTRACT Increasing the climate literacy of local leaders in the Tampa Bay region is critical if the area is to successfully face the rising challenges of the climate crisis. One of the most vulnerable areas in the world, the Tampa Bay region is often considered ill-prepared to cope with rising sea levels, threats of extreme rainfall, flooding and intense hurricanes, and the potentially deadly impact of recording breaking heat. This project produced a documentary film to increase awareness and understanding of the area’s coastal climate related risks and solutions, and boost confidence and motivation to act among regional community members. We assess the impact of the film, which uses a storytelling format and strong visual messaging, on over 250 local community members’ understanding of risk, knowledge of appropriate resilience strategies, and empowerment to act. Qualitative analysis of pre-film and post-film surveys reveals the strong impact of the storytelling portions of the film on fact retention, feelings of urgency and the willingness to work with others to promote local resilience.

Nutrient and carbonate chemistry patterns associated with Karenia brevis blooms in three West Florida Shelf estuaries 2020-2023

Ocean acidification (OA) driven by eutrophication, riverine discharge, and other threats from local population growth that affect the inorganic carbonate system is already affecting the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Long-term declines in pH of ~ -0.001 pH units yr-1 have been observed in many southwest Florida estuaries over the past few decades. Coastal and estuarine waters of southwest Florida experience high biomass harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis nearly every year; and these blooms have the potential to impact and be impacted by seasonal to interannual patterns of carbonate chemistry. Sampling was conducted seasonally along three estuarine transects (Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, Caloosahatchee River) between May 2020 and May 2023 to obtain baseline measurements of carbonate chemistry prior to, during, and following K. brevis blooms. Conductivity, temperature and depth data and discrete water samples for K. brevis cell abundance, nutrients, and carbonate chemistry (total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbonate (DIC), pCO2, and pHT were evaluated to identify seasonal patterns and linkages among carbonate system variables, nutrients, and K. brevis blooms. Karenia brevis blooms were observed during six samplings, and highest pCO2 and lowest pHT was observed either during or after blooms in all three estuaries. Highest average pH and lowest pCO2 were observed in Tampa Bay. In all three estuaries, average DIC and pHT were higher and pCO2 was lower during dry seasons than wet seasons. There was strong influence of net community calcification (NCC) and net community production (NCP) on the carbonate system; and NCC : NCP ratios in Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and the Caloosahatchee River were 0.83, 0.93, and 1.02, respectively. Linear relationships between salinity and dissolved ammonium, phosphate, and nitrate indicate strong influence of freshwater inflow from river input and discharge events on nutrient concentrations. This study is a first step towards connecting observations of high biomass blooms like those caused by K. brevis and alterations of carbonate chemistry in Southwest Florida. Our study demonstrates the need for integrated monitoring to improve understanding of interactions among the carbonate system, HABs, water quality, and acidification over local to regional spatial scales and event to decadal time scales.

Sampling design modifications to a fishery-independent monitoring survey balance the maintenance of long-term data with emerging management needs and funding limitations

Development of Florida’s marine Fisheries-Independent Monitoring (FIM) program began in 1985, and it initiated long-term monitoring in Tampa Bay in 1989 with the purpose of providing timely fishery-independent data and analyses to fishery managers for the conservation and protection of the species that support Florida’s fisheries. Over time, the program expanded sampling in other Florida estuaries. Data from this monitoring program are integral to the assessment and management of numerous state and federally managed fishes, so long-term consistency is of paramount importance, but sampling design modifications have been necessary over time. This review presents three case studies in which the estuarine component of the FIM program was changed to address emerging data needs in management of Florida’s fishery resources, while maintaining standardization and consistency with long-term surveys statewide. In the first case study, survey changes increased the amount of data on juvenile common snook, Centropomus undecimalis, on the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts and improved indices of abundance, survival estimates, and age-length keys for state management purposes. In the second case study, the FIM program improved estimates of abundance of juvenile reef fishes by initiating a complementary survey that expanded FIM sampling to new regions of the Florida Gulf coast and targeted a unique habitat (polyhaline seagrass beds along estuarine shoal habitats) not previously sampled in the standard long-term survey. In the third case study, the FIM program addressed a data limitation for regional management of spotted seatrout, Cynoscion nebulosus, by initiating seasonal sampling in western Florida. In each case study, the standard long-term survey design was modified to include sampling of new and unique areas and habitats, providing valuable data on estuarine fish assemblages that support analyses at the broader, ecosystem level. Survey amendments were designed to maintain standardization and consistency, all with limited additional funding. The success of these survey modifications was the result of several key factors: mission-focused programmatic goals, geographically dispersed laboratories, standardized protocols, ongoing critical analysis of the data, grant award success, and high-level data management. Although each case study originated with a survey expansion, all were followed by survey reductions or streamlining, so expansion and reduction scenarios are presented in this review. Regardless of these modifications, the mission of the FIM program remains the same: to provide timely data and analysis for the use of fishery managers, including state and federal partners.

Seasonal abundance of the nudibranch Dondice jupiteriensis on the colonial hydroid Eudendrium carneum

Benthic colonial hydroids often serve as a host to a large variety of invertebrate taxa. The colonial hydroid Eudendrium carneum Clarke, 1882 is host to a variety of epifauna, including the recently described nudibranch Dondice jupiteriensis García—Méndez & Valdés, 2022. Like many species of heterobranch sea slugs, little is known about the natural history and population biology of D. jupiteriensis. Here we describe a year—long study recording the population density and size structure of D. jupiteriensis on E. carneum colonies in Tampa Bay, FL USA. We found that the D. jupiteriensis population persists year—round but is the densest during the summer months. This coincides with the time period when individual slugs were the smallest, suggesting the population increase in the summer is likely due to larval recruitment. Additionally, 13 other species of heterobranch sea slugs were found inhabiting E. carneum over the course of the study, although none of them were as numerous as D. jupiteriensis. This study provides the first available information on the ecology and population biology of the recently described nudibranch D. jupiteriensis.

A tracer model nowcast/forecast study of the Tampa Bay, Piney Point effluent plume: Rapid response to an environmental hazard

An emergency discharge of nutrient-rich effluent from the defunct Piney Point fertilizer stack into Tampa Bay at Port Manatee occurred from 30 March–8 April 2021. This resulted in a pollutant plume that evolved over time and space across the entire bay, including its environmentally sensitive marine preserves, and out onto the adjacent continental shelf. As a rapid response to environmental concerns, the plume evolution was simulated using the high resolution, unstructured grid, Tampa Bay Coastal Ocean Model (TBCOM) nowcast/forecast system, with an embedded tracer module that included realistic point discharge rates. Normalized tracer distributions were automatically updated each day, providing 1-day hindcasts and 3.5-day forecasts. Due to mixing and advection, tracer concentration was quickly reduced by two or more orders of magnitude as the plume spread out. Highest tracer concentrations hugged the southeastern Tampa Bay shoreline during the first week. Lower tracer concentrations were gradually advected to the western side of Tampa Bay, and the tracer was slowly flushed out of the bay to be transported primarily northward along the coast. The modeled plume evolution served as principal guidance for coordinating environmental monitoring by state, local and academic personnel. The model results also provide a basis for future multidisciplinary studies.

Phytoplankton communities of the west coast of Florida – multiyear and seasonal responses to nutrient enrichment

Blooms of the harmful algae species Karenia brevis are frequent off the southwest coast of Florida despite having relatively slow growth rates. The regional frequency of these harmful algal blooms led to the examination of the dominant estuarine outflows for effects on both K. brevis and the phytoplankton community in general. There is comparatively little information on the growth rates of non-Karenia taxonomic groups other than diatoms. A seasonally based series (Fall, Winter, and Spring) of bioassay experiments were conducted to determine the nutrient response of the coastal phytoplankton community. Treatments included estuarine waters (Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and the Caloosahatchee River) applied in a 1:25 dilution added to coastal water to mimic the influence of estuarine water in a coastal environment. Other treatments were 5–15 μM additions of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and silica (Si) species, amino acids, and N (urea) + P added to coastal water. Incubations were conducted under ambient conditions with shading for 48 h. Analyses of dissolved and particulate nutrients were coupled with HPLC analysis of characteristic photopigments and taxonomic assignments of biomass via CHEMTAX. The coastal phytoplankton community, dominated by diatoms, cyanophytes and prasinophytes, was significantly different both by bioassay and by season, indicating little seasonal fidelity in composition. Specific growth rates of chlorophyll a indicated no significant difference between any controls, any estuarine treatment, P, or Si treatments. Conditions were uniformly N-limited with the highest growth rates in diatom biomass. Despite differing initial communities, however, there were seasonally reproducible changes in community due to the persistent growth or decline of the various taxa, including haptophytes, cyanophytes, and cryptophytes. For the one bioassay in which K. brevis was present, the slow growth of K. brevis relative to diatoms in a mixed community was evident, indicating that identifying the seasonally based behavior of other taxa in response to nutrients is critical for the simulation of phytoplankton competition and the successful prediction of the region's harmful algal blooms.

“That’S What We Call ‘Aesthetics,’ Not A Public Health Issue”: The Social Construction Of Tap Water Mistrust In An Underbounded Community

In the United States, underbounded communities—urban disadvantaged unincorporated neighborhoods characterized by high-poverty and high residential density lying just outside the border of an incorporated municipality—often lack consistent access to clean and safe water. Poor water quality and inadequate infrastructure shape residents’ risk perceptions, often leading to tap water mistrust, but little is known about the broader social, political, and economic drivers of water quality in these settings or about how such drivers inform the social construction of risk across different stakeholder groups. Using an underbounded African-American/Hispanic neighborhood in the Tampa Bay metropolitan region as a case study, we illustrate how tap water mistrust is socially constructed and how these constructions contrast between neighborhood residents and government officials. Interviews and participant observation with these groups reveal that tap water mistrust emerges from the nexus of inadequate infrastructure, poor housing conditions, challenges relating to the affordability of piped water, and jurisdictional disconnects. We call for interventions that foreground participatory research, integrate social and cultural context into technical solutions, and prioritize equitability in decision making.

Recreational beneficiaries and their landscape dependencies across national estuary program sites: Tillamook Bay (OR) and Tampa Bay (FL), USA

ABSTRACT This study aims to characterize the value associated with nature-based recreational opportunities and identify estuarine attributes most valued by users. With the National Ecosystem Service Classification System as a framework, we assessed the relationship between recreational beneficiary subclasses and ecological end-products available to beneficiaries in Tillamook Bay, OR, and Tampa Bay, FL estuaries. We used the InVEST recreation model to assess the spatial distribution and intensity of recreation in both estuaries, then inform site selection in subsequent analyses. We evaluated photo content and collected observational data at sites with the highest utilization. Surveys of location attributes helped determine the availability of ecosystem service ecological end-products. Ordination techniques were employed to evaluate similarities in natural and human-made attributes across stations and establish groups of stations that could offer comparable recreational experiences. Recreational ‘experiencers and viewers’ were the dominant beneficiary group, as they took the most photos and were most often encountered during passive onsite observations. Composite features (e.g. viewscapes) were the predominant ecological end-products. Counter to hypothesized outcomes, there was no detectable difference in the number of recreational beneficiaries predicted between estuaries after accounting for site-scale variability. Locations with multiple natural and human-made attributes, including access points, had more recreational users. Onsite observations also revealed a potential need for more safe and equitable access options in high-use locations. Findings highlight the importance of recreational ‘experiencers and viewers’ valuing habitat mosaics, even across vastly different geographical settings. This exploration of how humans derive well-being from coastal landscapes is crucial to ecosystem-based management.

Firearm availability and police shootings of citizens: a city level analysis of fatal and injurious shootings in California and Florida

BackgroundA growing body of research has found a link between firearm availability and police shootings of citizens across place. The problem, however, is that the previous studies on the topic tend to suffer from several limitations: a near exclusive focus on citizen fatalities, units of analysis at the state or county levels, and a variety of proxy measures tapping into community-level firearm access. The current study set out to address these issues by examining the relationship between different forms of firearm availability and both fatal and nonfatal injurious police shootings of citizens at the city level.MethodsMore specifically, it merged The Trace’s “Missing Pieces” measures of guns reported lost and stolen to police as well as licensed firearms dealers across jurisdictions from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives as proxies for firearm availability with data on police shootings of citizens in California and Florida from California’s URSUS system and the Tampa Bay Times’ “Why Cops Shoot” database, respectively. Negative binomial regression analyses were performed on a sample of 253 cities across the two states and a sub-sample of cities with licensed firearms dealers.ResultsFindings uncovered a small positive association between rates of federally licensed guns stores and the number citizens shot by police as well as police shooting incidents while controlling for several community-level measures (e.g., concentrated disadvantage, gun homicide rates). Rates of guns lost or reported stolen were generally not significantly associated with the outcome measures in the multivariate models.ConclusionsFirearm availability is a significant correlate of police shootings. Pooled counts of both citizens shot by police and police shooting incidents are heightened in jurisdictions with higher rates of licensed gun dealers, which may be due to the fact that all firearms sold in the USA first make their way to the public through these mechanisms. Such licensed gun dealers must be appropriately monitored and audited to reduce illicit behavior and prevent firearms from making their way into secondary markets. Addressing access to firearms can be meaningful for a host of gun-related morbidity and mortality outcomes, including police shootings of citizens.

Hydrodynamic response to bathymetric changes in Tampa Bay, Florida

Bathymetric changes within estuarine and coastal waters can alter the hydrodynamic evolution of sea level and currents, which in turn can influence the ecosystem by altering material property distributions. Here we apply the Tampa Bay Coastal Ocean Model (TBCOM), with an unstructured, high-resolution grid to investigate the hydrodynamic response to bathymetric changes at the periphery of the Tampa Bay mouth over a relatively small area when compared to the whole model domain. Two separate numerical experiments are conducted with the same forcing, one using the original bathymetry and the other employing a revised synthetic bathymetry. The simulated sea level, amplitude and phase of the M2 tide, and associated currents are compared for the two experiments. Significant changes in water level (up to+/-10 cm) and current velocities (up to 20 cm/s) are found in the shallow peripheral area with the two different bathymetric data sets. These bathymetric influences are not limited to the locations where the bathymetric changes occur; they also extend to remote areas of the bay. Since Tampa Bay bathymetry varies with storm-induced sediment redistributions and human actives such as shipping channel dredging and beach nourishment, these findings emphasize the need for accurate and updated bathymetry for coastal ocean modeling and applications.

Reorganizing the Waterscape: Asymmetric Loss of Wetlands and Gain of Artificial Water Features in a Mixed-use Watershed

Between the 1780 and 1980s, more than half of the wetlands in the conterminous US were lost. As wetlands have been lost, numerous artificial water features (AWFs), such as stormwater retention ponds, golf course water features, and reservoirs, have been constructed. We contrasted the loss of wetland area and perimeter to the gain of AWF area and perimeter and further explored how this transformation has altered the spatial characteristics of the waterscape. We conducted this analysis in the Tampa Bay Watershed, a large coastal watershed that lost 33% of its wetland area between the 1950s-2007. Trends have been towards fewer, smaller wetlands and more, smaller AWFs. The loss of wetland area far exceeds the gain in AWF area, leading to an overall loss of 23% of the combined wetland and AWF area. However, the loss of wetland perimeter almost equals the gain in AWF perimeter, leading to an overall loss of just 2% of the combined wetland and AWF perimeter. The loss of wetlands and gain of AWFs have predominantly occurred in different geographic locations, with the loss of wetlands predominantly in the headwaters and the gain in AWFs predominantly adjacent to Tampa Bay. Wetlands became further apart, though generally retained their natural distribution, while AWFs became closer to one another and now mirror the more natural wetland distribution. Overall, the physical structure of the waterscape of today is different than in the past, which likely reflects a change in functions performed and related ecological services provided at local and landscape scales.

Short-term forecast of Karenia brevis trajectory on the West Florida Shelf

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, also known as harmful algal blooms (HABs) or red tides, occur almost annually on the west coast of Florida, killing fish and other marine life, threatening public health and adversely impacting local economies. Mitigating such effects requires improved red tide forecast capabilities on the West Florida Shelf. A short-term Lagrangian trajectory forecast tool is developed to help federal, state, and local end users monitor and manage red tides on the west coast of Florida. The forecast products are based on the West Florida Coastal Ocean Model (WFCOM) and the Tampa Bay Coastal Ocean Model (TBCOM) nowcast/forecast systems. Observed K. brevis cell count data are uploaded daily into the models to generate 3.5-day forecasts of the bloom trajectories both on the shelf and in the estuaries. The tracking tool displays modeled bloom trajectories at the surface and near-bottom with five categories of cell concentrations (each approximately representing an order of magnitude difference in concentration). More general and user-friendly maps are also produced to provide red tide advisories along the coast, including those integrated with satellite imagery.

Geoarchaeology and Coastal Morphodynamics of Harbor Key (8MA15): Indigenous Persistence at a Partially Inundated Native Shell Mound Complex in Tampa Bay, Florida

AbstractApplying a coastal-geoarchaeological approach, we synthesize stratigraphic, sedimentological, mollusk-zooarchaeological, and radiometric datasets from recent excavations and sediment coring at Harbor Key (8MA15)—a shell-terraformed Native mound complex within Tampa Bay, on the central peninsular Gulf Coast of Florida. We significantly revise the chronological understanding of the site and place it among the relatively few early civic-ceremonial centers in the region. Analyses of submound contexts revealed that the early first millennium mound center was constructed atop a platform of sand and ex situ cultural shell deposits that were reworked during ancient storm landfalls around 2000 BP. We situate Harbor Key within a seascape-scale stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental framework and show that the shellworks comprise an artificial barrier protecting the leeward estuary basin (and productive inshore wetlands) from high-energy conditions of the open bay and swells from the Gulf of Mexico. The sedimentary and archaeological records attest to the long-term history of morphodynamic interaction between coastal processes and Indigenous shell terraforming in the region and suggest that early first millennium mound building in Tampa Bay was tied to the recognition and reuse of antecedent shellworks and the persistent management of encompassing cultural seascapes.

A functional Hidden Markov Model to incorporate dynamics into Bayesian optimal stopping problems: Helping physicians manage traumatic brain injuries

This paper describes a decision support system for neurosurgeons to determine the release schedule for polytrauma patients with concurrent traumatic brain injuries (TBIs). We present a novel functional Hidden Markov Model (fHMM) designed to mitigate the computational burden caused by ever-growing historical data. Our fHMM is nested into a Bayesian optimal stopping problem, effectively representing emergency physicians' crucial decisions during the discharge process. Our model is unique in its ability to adapt to different physician decision-making styles while continuously monitoring patient progress. We validate our approach using simulated and real data from a major hospital in Tampa Bay. The analysis reveals that dynamic prognostic measures can help balance the competing needs of rapid patient release and neurologic stability. Additionally, our results show variability in physicians' expectations regarding neurological recovery. Counterfactual analyses suggest that implementing this decision model could potentially save up to $27,500 per TBI patient under certain conditions.

Observed trends in scavenging by common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus truncatus) in for‐hire fisheries in the eastern U.S. Gulf of Mexico

AbstractInteractions between bottlenose dolphin and recreational rod and reel fisheries are a complex issue for resource managers in the United States, which may impact anglers' catch and lead to dangerous situations for scavenging or depredating dolphins. To examine this issue, we analyzed data collected by observers on for‐hire fishing vessels off the eastern U.S. Gulf Coast from 2009 to 2020. A generalized additive model indicated number of anglers, number of discarded fish, proximity to shore, prior scavenging events, type of released fish, and area fished were all significant predictors of scavenging by dolphins. The Florida panhandle had the highest odds of scavenging, while scavenging in the Big Bend and Tampa Bay has increased through time. The Florida panhandle is a well‐known area for illegal feeding of dolphins, suggesting human behavior may be influencing fisheries interactions. Model outputs indicate that dolphins are primarily cuing on fishing activity rather than number of discards, but are more likely to scavenge discards from the family Lutjanidae (snappers), which comprised 40% of observed discards but 80% of scavenging events. This study highlights factors influencing the frequency of dolphin scavenging events, guiding managers and scientists on additional studies and mitigation measures needed to address this issue.

MurKy waters: Modeling the succession from r to K strategists (diatoms to dinoflagellates) following a nutrient release from a mining facility in Florida

AbstractThe impacts of pulsed nutrient injections or extreme runoff events on marine ecosystems are far less studied than those associated with long‐term eutrophication, particularly in regard to mechanisms regulating the response of plankton community structure. Over 800 million liters of nutrient‐rich water from a fertilizer mine were discharged over a 2‐week period into Tampa Bay, Florida, in 2021, providing a unique opportunity to document the plankton response. A 3D‐coupled hydrodynamic biogeochemical model was developed to investigate this response and to understand the observed succession of a large, short diatom bloom followed by a secondary Karenia brevis bloom that lasted through the summer. The model reproduced the observed changes in nutrient concentration, total chlorophyll a, and diatom and K. brevis biomass in Tampa Bay. With a faster growth rate and spring temperature close to the optimal window of growth, diatoms had an initial competitive advantage, with 2/3 of the nutrient uptake due to ammonium and 1/3 due to nitrate. However, exhaustion of external nutrients led to the rapid decline of the diatom bloom, and the associated particular organic nitrogen sank onto the bay sediment. Enhanced sediment release of ammonium during the weeks following, and summer remineralization of dissolved organic nitrogen provided sufficient regenerated nitrogen to support slow‐growing K. brevis that could capitalize on low nutrient conditions. Modeling analysis largely confirmed Margalef's conceptual model of r to K‐selected species succession and provided additional insights into nutrient cycling supporting the initial diatom bloom and the subsequent bloom of a slow‐growing harmful algal species.

A Tampa Bay coastal ocean model (TBCOM) nowcast/forecast system

As a partially mixed estuary, Tampa Bay is influenced both by its connections to the adjacent Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and what occurs locally within the estuary. To assist in addressing the many scientific questions arising from various environmental factors, a very high resolution Tampa Bay Coastal Ocean Model (TBCOM) is modified to downscale from the deep GOM, across the continental shelf and into Tampa Bay to provide daily, automated nowcasts and forecasts. Veracity tests are provided for sea levels and currents forced by tides, synoptic weather variations and for extreme events. The model is also demonstrated to reproduce the net estuarine circulation through comparisons between in situ observations and model simulations. With demonstrated accuracy, TBCOM forecast sea levels are provided online as a reference for navigation support and for extreme events such as hurricane storm surge. Model simulations, even with a perfect model, are subject to errors by the forcing functions. For Tampa Bay, the NOAA NAM winds used to force the model are found to underestimate the actual winds, suggesting that additional wind observations for assimilation into operational weather forecast models may offer further improvements. This finding highlights the need for further coordination between coastal ocean observing systems and the ocean and atmosphere modeling communities. With coastal ocean and estuary material properties determined largely by the circulation, most ecological applications require accurate and timely circulation information, which the TBCOM Nowcast/Forecast System for Tampa Bay endeavors to provide.

Sea surface temperature trends for Tampa Bay, West Florida Shelf and the deep Gulf of Mexico

Sea surface temperatures for Tampa Bay, the West Florida Continental Shelf (WFS) and the adjacent deep Gulf of Mexico are examined for trends. Data sets are from stations maintained by the Hillsborough County Environmental Protection Commission, buoys maintained by the University of South Florida Coastal Ocean Monitoring and Prediction System and the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) National Data Buoy Center, the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature analyses by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, and the Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature. These various data sets, each with different record lengths, require the consideration of trends both on the basis of record length and start time. Tampa Bay shows a warming trend, but with considerable inter-annual variability and start time bias resulting in a lack of statistical significance in more recent years. The WFS is also generally warming, and its inter-annual variability is largely controlled by the upwelling of cooler, deeper Gulf of Mexico water across the shelf break. The deep GOM shows statistically significant warming in most of the data except for the “gappy” records from buoys, both along the continental shelf and in the deep water. Trends in the Gulf of Mexico are mostly between 0.1 and 0.5 °C/decade, somewhat larger than the secular rise found globally, although within the range of the observed decadal variability.