Tampa Bay Region Research Articles

Being an iPadist

This column offers the personal reflections of the author on being a member of the band Touch, an iPad performing ensemble composed of music education faculty members and doctoral students at the University of South Florida. The ensemble primarily performed its own arrangements of popular music selections from a number of genres including, but not limited to, rock, hip-hop, and classical. The group began when the iPad was created by Apple in 2010 and had been performing all over the Tampa Bay (Florida) region, Texas, and Georgia, at the time of this publication. In this article, the reflections of the author are presented to inform the profession on how tablet technology can be used in the music performance arena and on how these devices can function as musical instruments in the general music classroom.

Exploring spatiotemporal patterns of phosphorus concentrations in a coastal bay with MODIS images and machine learning models

This paper explores the spatiotemporal patterns of total phosphorus (TP) in Tampa Bay (Bay), Florida, with the aid of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and genetic programming (GP) models. The study was designed to link TP concentrations with relevant water quality parameters and remote sensing reflectance bands in aquatic environments using in-situ data from a local database to support the calibration and validation of the GP model. The GP models show the effective capacity to demonstrate snapshots of spatiotemporal distributions of TP across the Bay, which helps to delineate the short-term seasonality effects and the decadal trends of TP in an environmentally sensitive coastal bay area. In the past decade, urban development and agricultural activities in the Bay area have substantially increased the use of fertilizers. Landfall hurricanes, including Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005, followed by continuous droughts from 2006 to 2008 in South Florida, made the Bay area an ideal place for a remote sensing impact assessment. A changing hydrological cycle, triggered by climate variations, exhibited unique regional patterns of varying TP waste loads into the Bay over different time scales ranging from seasons to years. With the aid of the derived GP model in this study, we were able to explore these multiple spatiotemporal distributions of TP concentrations in the Tampa Bay area aquatic environment and to elucidate these coupled dynamic impacts induced by both natural hazards and anthropogenic perturbations. This advancement enables us to identify the hot moments and hot spots of TP concentrations in the Tampa Bay region.

Assessment of the utility of dynamically-downscaled regional reanalysis data to predict streamflow in west central Florida using an integrated hydrologic model

The goal of this study was to evaluate the ability of dynamically downscaled reanalysis data to reproduce local-scale spatiotemporal precipitation and temperature data needed to accurately predict streamflow in the Tampa Bay region of west central Florida. In particular, the Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies CLARReS10 data (NCEP DOE 2 reanalysis data (R2) downscaled to 10-km over the Southeast USA using the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) were evaluated against locally available observed precipitation and temperature data and then used to drive an integrated hydrologic model that was previously calibrated for the Tampa Bay region. Resulting streamflow simulations were evaluated against observed data and previously calibrated model results. Results showed that the raw downscaled reanalysis predictions accurately reproduced the seasonal trends of mean daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation, but generally overestimated the monthly mean and standard deviation of daily precipitation. Biases in the temporal mean and standard deviation of daily precipitation and temperature predictions were effectively removed using a CDF-mapping approach; however, errors in monthly precipitation totals remained after bias correction. Monthly streamflow simulation error statistics indicated that the accuracy of the streamflow produced by the bias-corrected downscaled reanalysis data was satisfactory (i.e., sufficient for seasonal to decadal planning), but that the accuracy of the streamflow produced by the raw downscaled reanalysis data was unsatisfactory for water resource planning purposes. The findings of this study thus indicate that further improvement in large-scale reanalysis data and regional climate models is needed before dynamically downscaled reanalysis data can be used directly (i.e. without bias correction with local data) to drive hydrologic models. However, bias-corrected dynamically downscaled data show promise for extending local historic climate observation records for hydrologic simulations. Furthermore, results of this study indicate that similarly bias-corrected dynamically downscaled retrospective and future GCM projections should be suitable for assessing potential hydrologic impacts of future climate change in the Tampa Bay region.

ENSO 패턴에 대한 MM5 강수 모의 결과의 유역단위 성능 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역을 중심으로

수자원의 수요 증가와 ENSO (El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o/La Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>a Southern Oscillation) 등의 기후변화 현상으로 인한 수자원 공급의 불안정 요소가 제기됨에 따라, 수자원 관리 계획 수립 시 장/단기강우 모의의 중요성이 강조되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 미국 플로리다 템파 지역의 두 개 유역을 대상으로 1986년부터 2008년까지의 MM5 지역기후모델을 이용한 강우모의 결과를 시험지역의 33개 관측자료와 CDF-mapping 기법을 이용하여 통계적으로 보정하였으며 그 결과를 바탕으로 ENSO 패턴에 따른 모델의 성능을 평가하였다. 보정된 MM5일 강우 모의결과는 대체적으로 각 관측소의 월 평균 강우량 (ME: 1.0mm)을 잘 모의하는 것으로 나타났다. 블락-크리깅 기법을 이용하여 추정된 유역 평균 일/월 강우량 또한 관측치를 잘 재현하였다(일 강우 ME: 0.8mm, 월 강우 ME: 7.1mm). 한편, ONI (Oceanic Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o index)를 이용하여 구분한 ENSO 패턴에 따른 강우 모의치를 분석한 결과, 월별 엘리뇨/라니냐 해에 대한 유역 단위의 강우량 모의 성능이 상이한 것으로 나타났다. 이 원인으로 한정된 모수화 적용 및 모델 경계자료 오차 등을 제시하고 이에 대한 보정 방법개선 등의 추가 연구의 필요성을 지적하였다. 본 연구는 ENSO 패턴을 고려한 월별 기후모델 결과를 활용함에 있어 유의점을 제시하였기에, 우기와 건기에 대한 수자원 관리를 위한 적용 등에 유용하게 활용될 것으로 기대된다. As demand of water resources and attentions to changes in climate (e.g., due to ENSO) increase, long/short term prediction of precipitation is getting necessary in water planning. This research evaluated the ability of MM5 to predict precipitation in the Tampa Bay region over 23 year period from 1986 to 2008. Additionally MM5 results were statistically bias-corrected using observation data at 33 stations over the study area using CDF-mapping approach and evaluated comparing to raw results for each ENSO phase (i.e., El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o and La Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>a). The bias-corrected model results accurately reproduced the monthly mean point precipitation values. Areal average daily/monthly precipitation predictions estimated using block-kriging algorithm showed fairly high accuracy with mean error of daily precipitation, 0.8 mm and mean error of monthly precipitation, 7.1 mm. The results evaluated according to ENSO phase showed that the accuracy in model output varies with the seasons and ENSO phases. Reasons for low predictions skills and alternatives for simulation improvement are discussed. A comprehensive evaluation including sensitivity to physics schemes, boundary conditions reanalysis products and updating land use maps is suggested to enhance model performance. We believe that the outcome of this research guides to a better implementation of regional climate modeling tools in water management at regional/seasonal scale.

Hydrologic characterization of 56 geographically isolated wetlands in west-central Florida using a probabilistic method

Wetlands are important hydrological elements of watersheds that influence water storage, surface water runoff, groundwater recharge/discharge processes, and evapotranspiration. Understanding the cumulative effect wetlands have on a watershed requires a good understanding of representative water-level fluctuations and storage characteristics associated with multiple wetlands across a region. We introduce a probabilistic approach based on frequency analysis of water levels in numerous geographically isolated wetlands across the mantled karst terrain of west-central Florida, in the Tampa Bay region. This approach estimates the probabilities, or percentage of time, that water levels in a wetland or upland groundwater wells are at or below a specific elevation. We applied this hydrologic characterization to 56 wetlands in west-central Florida, and documented that standing water was present in the wetlands 61 % of the time and that these wetlands were groundwater recharge zones at least 50 % of the time over the 7 year study. Additionally, we demonstrated that various wetland types, classified according to vegetation community composition and structure, exhibit similar means, extremes and ranges in water-level behavior. We believe that this is the first paper to robustly quantify inundation frequency and recharge status in seasonally flooded wetlands at a regional scale. The analytical tool introduced in this manuscript could be used to detect, through changes in water-level frequency distribution, wetland hydrological response to different climatological or anthropogenic stressors. This tool is timely as changes in frequency distribution shape may provide early warnings of ecosystem regime change.

Lake performance differences in response to land use and water quality: Data envelopment analysis

Alsharif KA, Fouad G. 2012. Lake performance differences in response to land use and water quality: Data envelopment analysis. Lake Reserv Manage. 28:130-141. Comparisons of lake conditions to surrounding land use classifications and water quality can be used to assist management of lake resources. This study used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a performance measurement tool used in economics and operations research and management science, to compare lakes based on land use classifications and water quality. Lake performance ratings reflecting land use and water quality conditions were generated by DEA models that assessed surrounding land use and the reciprocal of the chlorophyll a concentration in the Tampa Bay region, Florida, USA. Using the performance continuum established by the DEA, lakes were categorized according to their management demands. Increased catchment, natural land, and agricultural land area were all related to lower performance measurements. It was found that higher DEA performance measurements were estimated for lakes located in smaller catchments that had a lower possibility for runoff and transport of contaminants. Overall, DEA successfully functioned as an assessment tool for comparing lake conditions based on land use in the catchment. The results produced by this novel application of DEA can prioritize management efforts toward lakes that suffer from the least beneficial water quality and land use conditions.

Quantitative Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Dynamically Downscaled MM5 Precipitation Predictions over the Tampa Bay Region, Florida

AbstractThis research quantitatively evaluated the ability of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) to reproduce observed spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in the Tampa Bay region over the 1986–2008 period. Raw MM5 model results were positively biased; therefore, the raw model precipitation outputs were bias corrected at 53 long-term precipitation stations in the region using the cumulative distribution function (CDF) mapping approach. CDF mapping effectively removed the bias in the mean daily, monthly, and annual precipitation totals and improved the RMSE of these rainfall totals. Observed daily precipitation transition probabilities were also well predicted by the bias-corrected MM5 results. Nevertheless, significant error remained in predicting specific daily, monthly, and annual total time series. After bias correction, MM5 successfully reproduced seasonal geostatistical precipitation patterns, with higher spatial variance of daily precipitation in the wet season and lower spatial variance of daily precipitation in the dry season. Bias-corrected daily precipitation fields were kriged over the study area to produce spatiotemporally distributed precipitation fields over the dense grids needed to drive hydrologic models in the Tampa Bay region. Cross validation at the 53 long-term precipitation gauges showed that kriging reproduced observed rainfall with average RMSEs lower than the RMSEs of individually bias-corrected point predictions. Results indicate that although significant error remains in predicting actual daily precipitation at rain gauges, kriging the bias-corrected MM5 predictions over a hydrologic model grid produces distributed precipitation fields with sufficient realism in the daily, seasonal, and interannual patterns to be useful for multidecadal water resource planning in the Tampa Bay region.

Abstract A26: Developing a network of community research councils to promote and facilitate clinical prevention trial participation in medically underserved populations

Abstract If we are to statistically represent the US population (CIA World Factbook), approximately 20% of all clinical trial participants should be composed of racial and ethnic minorities. However, it is a well documented public health concern that minority participation in clinical trials is minimal at best, namely among cancer trials. The American Cancer Society expects 1.6 million persons to be diagnosed with cancer in 2011 (Cancer Facts and Figures 2011, 1) and in order to develop and evaluate sustainable treatments, clinical trials are a necessity. It is estimated that 3–5 percent of eligible cancer patients will participate in clinical trials (Gotay, C.C., 569). Less than one percent will represent a racial or ethnic minority (npr.org). The purpose of this study is to determine whether or not a Community Research Council can increase minority participation in clinical trials. The Center for Equal Health, a partnership between the University of South Florida, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center, and the Tampa Bay Community is committed to increasing minority participation in clinical trials for the purpose of enhancing the current treatment options and research surrounding ailments that directly affect minority communities. The Community Research Council (CRC) was established to advocate for and oversee clinical and translational research activities in the Tampa Bay region. Synthesized by examining examples from several Tribal Nations, this governing body serves to: 1) Strengthen the relationship of the research institutions with the community; 2) Provide oversight, protection, and advocacy of community participants involved in clinical and translational research activities performed by academic and clinical institutions; 3) Create and enhance clinical trial opportunities for underrepresented communities; 4) Empower underrepresented communities with decision-making opportunities concerning research activities that involve their members; and 5) Enhance and expand trust between academic and clinical institutions and the communities that they serve. Within 12 months of formation, the council will expand into at least one other geographical area to build upon existing relationships with other research institutions (i.e., Florida A&amp;M University). This will lead to the development of Minority Clinical Research Networks (MCRN) that will serve as the link between the CRC, clinical practitioners, members of the community, research institutions, and pharmaceutical companies. Long term goals of the CRC include lobbying pharmaceutical companies and private investors to provide more clinical research opportunities in the defined region (i.e., the Florida Counties of Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas). Once clinical trials are created or identified in the region, we will develop a plan to monitor minority participation in these trials over time. We expect to see self-reported increases in clinical research knowledge within one year of CRC implementation in the region. We believe that when clinical practitioners, research institutions, members of the community, and pharmaceutical companies are provided with a central organization that provides education, ethical guidelines, and an opportunity for networking, the long term result will be an increase in minority participation in clinical trials. Citation Information: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2011;20(10 Suppl):A26.

Urban development, power relations, and water redistribution as drivers of wetland change in the Tampa Bay Region Socioecosystem

Urban development, power relations, and water redistribution as drivers of wetland change in the Tampa Bay Region Socioecosystem

Urban development, power relations, and water redistribution as drivers of wetland change in the Tampa Bay Region Socioecosystem

Abstractn/a

Remote sensing of temperature variations around major power plants as point sources of heat

Variations in land surface temperature (LST) around major point sources of heat were studied using the Tampa Bay region as a case study. LST in the Tampa Bay region, FL, USA, was retrieved from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) 6 and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) 6 high-gain thermal bands. The TM6 image data were obtained on 29 January (winter season) and 3 April 2007 (spring season). The ETM+6 data were obtained on 11 April 2007 (spring season). Spatial profiles of LST around four major fossil-fuelled power plants (FFPPs) were considered in this study. Temperatures were found to be highest at power plants and to decay to an average background temperature within 1.2–2.0 km from the FFPPs. The average background temperatures obtained in January and April were 17°C and 29°C, respectively. Results indicate that LST in close proximity to the FFPPs could be up to 10°C hotter than the surrounding areas. These findings suggest that FFPPs are significant heat sources and populations living within 1–2 km from an FFPP might be at significantly higher risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality.

Prioritization of Ecosystem Services Research: Tampa Bay Demonstration Project

The Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project (TBESDP) is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Ecosystem Services Research Program. The principal objectives of TBESDP are to (1) quantify the ecosystem services of the Tampa Bay watershed, (2) determine the value of ecosystem services to society, (3) predict the supply of ecosystem services under future scenarios of population growth and climate change, and (4) apply this knowledge through models and tools that will support the best informed environmental decisions possible. The scope and complexity of this project required intensive effort to establish which services can be quantified by applying existing models, data, and scientific literature and which services will require supporting research. Research priorities were assessed by: (1) developing and refining conceptual models of major ecosystems in the Tampa Bay region, (2) gathering input from stakeholders about the relative importance and values of various ecosystem services, (3) preparing and reviewing a bibliometric analysis of the volume of scientific literature relevant to the ecosystems and services of interest, and (4) evaluating an integrated analysis of importance, value, and availability of scientific information. This analysis led us to focus on two research priorities, seagrass-habitat functions as support for fishery production, and wetlands as regulators of water quality.

High-resolution land cover datasets, composite curve numbers, and storm water retention in the Tampa Bay, FL region

Policy makers need to understand how land cover change alters storm water regimes, yet existing methods do not fully utilize newly available datasets to quantify storm water changes at a landscape-scale. Here, we use high-resolution, remotely-sensed land cover, imperviousness, and tree canopy density data to calculate modified Soil Conservation Service (SCS) composite curve numbers. Policy makers can interpret composite curve numbers as a continuous, relative index of storm water mitigation ecosystem services provided by the landscape, allowing for better comprehension of the implications of land use decisions than current discrete methods. We also compare composite curve number calculations from regional land cover/land use data to calculations from national land cover data and show that they differ significantly in each of the watersheds that drain into Tampa Bay. The use of discrete urban classes to determine curve numbers is also explored. We show that, for the Tampa Bay region, assumed urban imperviousness values published in Technical Release 55 (a document that provides curve numbers for soil/land cover complexes) overestimate the actual imperviousness as reported by the national and regional datasets. This error in estimation caused composite curve numbers calculated using remotely-sensed data to be lower than they would have been if curve numbers had been assigned solely by discrete SCS classes. Furthermore, the average imperviousness for all urban classes increased from 1995 to 2005, reflecting region-wide increases in imperviousness reported by the regional dataset. Our comparison illustrates that using a constant imperviousness value for urban classes over time, a method used in numerous studies and models, leads to inaccurate estimation of temporal changes in storm water runoff. Average imperviousness for urban classes also differed significantly between the regional and national datasets, signifying that the two datasets cannot be used interchangeably.

University of South Florida College of Medicine

University of South Florida College of Medicine

Drinking Water Source Protection in the Tampa Bay Region: A Guide for Government Officials

SS524, a 4-page fact sheet by Amy L. Shober, familiarizes government officials in the Tampa Bay region with some of the regulatory and non-regulatory tools that can help to protect local sources of drinking water. Includes references. Published by the UF Department of Soil and Water Science, December 2009. SL312/SS524: Drinking Water Source Protection in the Tampa Bay Region: A Guide for Government Officials (ufl.edu)

Drinking Water Source Protection in the Tampa Bay Region: A Guide for Homeowners

SL-280, a 3-page illustrated fact sheet by Amy L. Shober, familiarizes homeowners in the Tampa Bay region with the local sources of drinking water, potential pollution sources, and actions that can protect the quality of the local drinking water supply. Includes references. Published by the UF Department of Soil and Water Science, February 2009. Revised June 2009. SL280/SS493: Drinking Water Source Protection in the Tampa Bay Region: A Guide for Homeowners (ufl.edu)

Field test of four methods for gas-phase ambient nitric acid

Three semi-continuous methods for detecting nitric acid (HNO 3) were tested against the annular denuder + filter pack (ADS) integrated collection technique at the Tampa Bay Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (BRACE) Sydney research station ∼ 20 km downwind of the Tampa, Florida, urban core. The semi-continuous instruments included: two slightly differing implementations of the NO Y - NO Y * (total oxides of nitrogen minus that total denuded of HNO 3) denuder difference technique, one from the NOAA Air Resources Lab (ARL), and one from Atmospheric Research and Analysis, Inc. (ARA); the parallel plate wet diffusion scrubber + online ion chromatography technique from Texas Tech University (TTU); and the chemical ionization mass spectrometer from the Georgia Institute of Technology (GIT). Twelve hour ADS samples were collected by the University of South Florida (USF). Results for 10 min samples computed from the various higher sampling frequencies of each semi-continuous instrument showed good agreement ( R 2 > 0.7 ) for afternoon periods of the highest production and accumulation of HNO 3. Further, agreement was within ± 30 % for these instruments even at HNO 3 concentrations < 0.30 ppb . The USF ADS results were biased low, however, by 44%, on average, compared to the corporate 12 h aggregated means from the semi-continuous methods, and by > 60 % for the nighttime samples; ADS results were below the corporate mean maximum HNO 3 concentration by > 30 % as well. The four instruments using semi-continuous methods, by contrast, were all within 10% of each other's 12 h mean mixing ratios. While only ARA employed a formal minimum detection limit at 0.050 ppb, error analysis with the other techniques established that at the same level of precision, TTU's effective limit was approximately the same as ARA's and that ARL's limit was 0.030 ppb; analysis for GIT showed no apparent effective limit at the levels of HNO 3 encountered in this field study. The importance of sample inlet height for HNO 3 measurements was indirectly shown through comparison to previous field work at this site when sample inlet heights ranged from 1.5–10 m and produced systematic discrepancies in HNO 3 concentrations correlated with height of more than a factor of 2.

Assessment of boundary layer variations in the Tampa Bay Area during the Bay Region Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (BRACE)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), using the NOAA Twin Otter aircraft, made meteorological and chemical measurements during 21 flights in May 2002 in and around the Tampa Bay, Florida area as part of the Bay Region Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (BRACE). One or more vertical profiles were flown during each flight both over land and over the Gulf of Mexico. NOAA's Environmental Technology Laboratory (ETL; now part of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL)) deployed three surface-based 915-MHz radar wind profilers equipped with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASS) at Ruskin, Sydney, and St. Petersburg. The National Weather Service Office in Tampa (NWS/TBW) released rawinsondes twice daily from the Ruskin site. The measurements of temperature, dew point, potential temperature, ozone, and condensation nuclei acquired during the aircraft profiles are analyzed, and in combination with the profiler and sounding data, are used to determine the structure of the boundary layer over the Tampa Bay region and the temporal and spatial changes that occurred in that structure during representative flights.

Variations in water clarity and chlorophylla in Tampa Bay, Florida, in response to annual rainfall, 1985–2004

In the Tampa Bay region of Florida, extreme levels of annual and seasonal rainfall are often associated with tropical cyclones and strong El Nino episodes. We used stepwise multiple regression models to describe associations between annual and seasonal rainfall levels and annual, bay-segment mean water clarity (as Secchi depth [m]), chlorophylla (μg I−1), color (pcu), and turbidity (ntu) over a 20-yr period (1985–2004) during which estimated nutrient loadings have been dominated by non-point sources. For most bay segments, variations in annual mean water clarity were associated with variations in chlorophylla concentrations, which were associated in turn with annual or seasonal rainfall. In two bay segments these associations with annual rainfall were superimposed on significant long-term declining trends in chlorophylla. Color was significantly associated with annual rainfall in all bay segments, and in one segment variations in color were the best predictors of variations in water clarity. Turbidity showed a declining trend over time in all bay segments and no association with annual rainfall, and was significantly associated with variations in water clarity in only one bay segment. While chlorophylla, color, and turbidity a affected water clarity to varying degrees, the effects of extreme rainfall events (El Nino events in 1998 and 2003, and multiple tropical cyclone events in 2004) on water clarity were relatively short-lived, persisting for periods of months rather than years. During the 20-yr period addressed in these analyses, declining temporal trends in chlorophylla and turbidity, produced in part by a long-term watershed management program that has focused on curtailing annual loadings of nitrogen and other pollutants, may have helped to prevent the bay as a whole from responding more adversely to the high rainfall periods that occurred in 1998 and 2003–2004.

Ballasted Sedimentation Boosts Floc Settling

This article discusses how Tampa Bay Regional Surface Water Treatment Plant effectively treats three surface water sources (river, storm water canal, and reservoir), each with distinctive water quality characteristics including high color and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), seasonally high alkalinity and hardness, occasional algae blooms, other seasonal fluctuations, and sudden spikes brought on by rain. The treatment plant meets the challenge by incorporating ballasted sedimentation in the coagulation flocculation‐sedimentation process. Operating since 2002, the treatment plant demonstrates the effectiveness of ballasted sedimentation for removing relatively high organic carbon content despite significant variations in raw water quality. The article explains why conventional processes wouldn't work, how the ballasted sedimentation process works, and the benefits gained by using this process.