Life Table Research Articles

Global burden of dementia in younger people: an analysis of data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Dementia among younger people is rapidly emerging as a global health concern; however, comprehensive research on its shifting burden trends remains insufficient. Data on the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with dementia occurring in individuals <70 years were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to assess trends in age-specific rates (ASRs), including age-specific prevalence rates (ASPRs), age-specific incidence rates (ASIRs), age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-specific DALY rates (ASDRs) while young-onset dementia (YOD) burden trends were analyzed. The correlation between ASR/AAPC and the sociodemographic index (SDI) was evaluated. In 2021, the global prevalence of dementia in individuals <70 years increased by 122.33%, with a 128% increase in new cases since 1990. Concurrently, deaths and DALYs of individuals <70 years with dementia rose by 119.28% and 119.77%, respectively. The AAPCs of YOD ASRs during 1990-2021 initially increased and then decreased with increasing SDI levels, with the highest AAPCs of ASPR (2.20 [95%CI: 2.08-2.32] per 100,000), ASIR (2.25 [95%CI: 2.06-2.45] per 100,000), ASMR (2.04 [95%CI: 1.93-2.15] per 100,000), and ASDR (2.06 [95%CI: 1.99-2.13] per 100,000) observed in middle-SDI levels. Additionally, females <70 years bore a higher burden of dementia globally, and gender differences are still widening. The growth rate of YOD is accelerating, particularly in the middle to high SDI region with females bearing a disproportionately higher burden of YOD. This work was supported by grants from the National High level Hospital Clinical Research Funding, CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Estimated health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of implementing WHO's sodium benchmarks for packaged foods in India: a modelling study.

Excess dietary sodium intake has been associated with death and disability. WHO has released global sodium benchmarks for packaged foods to support countries to reduce population sodium intake. This study aimed to assess the potential health effect, costs, and cost effectiveness of implementing these WHO sodium benchmarks in India. We used a multiple cohort, proportional multistate, life table (Markov) model to estimate the health gains and cost effectiveness for adults if sodium content in packaged foods complied with the WHO benchmarks compared to the status quo. We used India-specific dietary surveys, food composition tables, foods sales data, and sodium content data from packaged food labels to estimate sodium intake before and after the intervention. Data on blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease burden were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study, and the effect of sodium reduction on blood pressure and disease risk was modelled on the basis of meta-analyses of randomised trials and cohort studies. Intervention and health-care costs were used to estimate net costs, and calculate the incremental cost per health-adjusted life-year (HALY) gained. Costs and HALYs were discounted at 3%. In the first 10 years, compliance with the WHO sodium benchmarks was estimated to avert a mean of 0·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·2-0·5) million deaths from cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease, a mean of 1·7 (95% UI 1·0-2·4) million incident cardiovascular disease events, and 0·7 (0·4-1·0) million new chronic kidney disease cases, compared with current practice. Over 10 years, the intervention was projected to be cost saving (100·0% probability), generating 1·0 (0·6 to 1·4) billion HALYs and US$0·8 (95% UI 0·3 to 1·4) million in cost savings. Over the population lifetime, the intervention could prevent 4·2 (2·4-6·0) million deaths from cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease, 14·0 (8·2-20·1) million incident cardiovascular disease events, and 4·8 (2·8-6·8) new chronic kidney disease cases, with an 84·2% probability of being cost-saving and 100·0% probability of being cost-effective. Our modelling data suggest a high potential for compliance with WHO sodium benchmarks for packaged food being associated with substantial health gains and cost savings, making a strong case for India to mandate the implementation of the WHO sodium benchmarks, particularly as packaged food consumption continues to rise. WHO Country Office India.

A historical syndemic? The impact of synergistic epidemics of measles and scarlet fever on life expectancy in Victoria, Australia (1860s-1870s).

To explore whether synergistic epidemics of measles and scarlet fever in 1860s-1870s Victoria, Australia could be characterized as syndemics, we apply the methods of Sawchuk, Tripp, and Samakaroon (Social Science & Medicine 2022, 295, 112956) to quantify the impact of each of the two major co-occurring epidemic events (1867, 1875) in terms of life expectancy (LE) changes. Sawchuk et al. posit the presence of a harvesting effect, indicated by a statistically significant increase in LE in the immediate post-epidemic "fallow period", as a criterion for identification of a historical syndemic. We test an alternate hypothesis that the same methods can identify a short-term scarring effect. Using annual age- and cause-specific death statistics and census population data, we constructed abridged period life tables for baseline period, potential syndemic year, and "fallow" year for each of the two periods (1860s and 1870s). We compared LE at birth using Z-tests. We decomposed age-cause-specific mortality according to Arriaga's method to identify age-and cause-specific contributions to LE change. LE was significantly lower than baseline (1864-1865) in 1867 but not in the "fallow" year (1869). LE in 1875 and the 1878 "fallow" year were both significantly below baseline (1871-1873). Age-cause-specific decomposition showed similar patterns for 1867 and 1875 for measles and scarlet fever combined effects. Evidence of a scarring effect following the 1875 measles/scarlet fever combined peak supports the interpretation of this event as a syndemic. We suggest the short-term scarring effect can be a useful additional criterion for identifying historical syndemics.

A GIS-coupled thermal response model for predicting the population growth potential of the red cotton bug, Dysdercus koenigii (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Pyrrhocoridae) in India under climate change conditions

Recently, the red cotton bug has become a significant menace to cotton in India. With the potential for increased habitat suitability due to predicted temperature rise of 2.5°C under future climate change in India, this pest could become even more severe in certain regions. Addressing the knowledge gap on the temperature-driven population growth of this pest is crucial for developing a climate-resilient pest management strategy. In this study, life history data gathered at various constant temperatures (15°C to 35°C) were used to estimate temperature thresholds and thermal requirements for the red cotton bug development. Stochastic estimation of life table parameters and validation with real-time weather data were performed. The phenology model, integrated into a geographic information system, projected the future pest status based on SSP126 temperature change scenarios for the year 2050. The temperatures between 8.35 – 10.83 °C were estimated as lower developmental thresholds for various immature life stages. The optimum and upper threshold temperatures estimated for different life stages ranged between 22.14 – 28.32°C and 35.80 – 39.08°C, respectively. Thermal requirements of 447.97 degree days for life cycle completion were estimated. The optimum immature survival rates (>70%) were observed at temperatures between 25-30°C. The temperature-dependent decrease in generation times from 90.45 days (15 °C) to 25.44 days (35°C) was observed, whereas maximum fecundity was recorded at 32°C. Simulation at fluctuating temperatures across different cotton growing locations provided reasonably similar results on potential population increase (finite rate of increase: 0.99 - 1.04 females/female/day and a generation time of 44.25 – 83.97 days). Risk mapping highlighted moderate to high suitability (ERI >0.4, GI > 6, and AI >4) of various cotton growing areas under current climate, and projected shifts in suitability under future climate change. The study has generated information valuable for implementing effective and timely pest management strategies for RCB. Integrating the field observations with model outputs can enhance a practical understanding of red cotton bug dynamics.

Estimated health effect, cost, and cost-effectiveness of mandating sodium benchmarks in Australia's packaged foods: a modelling study

Excess dietary sodium is a leading cause of death and disability globally. Because packaged foods are a major source of sodium in many countries, including Australia, mandatory limits for sodium might improve population health. We aimed to estimate the long-term health and economic effect of mandating such thresholds in Australia. We used a multiple cohort, proportional, multistate, life table model to simulate the effect of mandating either the WHO global sodium benchmarks or the currently non-mandatory Australian Healthy Food Partnership (HFP) sodium targets. We compared maintaining the current sodium intake status quo with intervention scenarios, using nationally representative data on dietary intake, sodium in packaged foods, and food sales volume. Blood pressure and disease burden data were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. The effect of sodium reduction on blood pressure and disease risk was modelled on the basis of meta-analyses of randomised trials and cohort studies. Intervention and health-care costs were used to calculate the incremental cost per health-adjusted life-year (HALY) gained. Costs and HALYs were discounted annually at 3%. Compared with the status quo intervention, mandating the WHO benchmarks could be cost saving over the first 10 years (AUD$223 [95% uncertainty interval 82-433] million saved), with 2743 (1677-3976) cardiovascular disease deaths and 43 971 (26 892-63 748) incident cardiovascular disease events averted, and 11 174 (6800-16 205) HALYs gained. Over the population's lifetime, the intervention was cost effective (100·0% probability). Mandating the HFP sodium targets was also estimated to be cost effective (100·0% probability), but with 29% of the health benefits compared with the WHO benchmarks. Our modelling study supports mandating sodium thresholds for packaged foods as a cost-effective strategy to prevent death and disease in Australia. Although making Australia's voluntary reformulation targets mandatory might save thousands of lives, mandating the WHO global benchmarks could yield substantially greater health gains. None.

Artificial Intelligence in Life Expectancy Prediction: A Paradigm Shift for Annuity Pricing and Risk Management

This article explores the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in predicting life expectancy and its far-reaching implications for the annuities market. Traditional actuarial models, often reliant on demographic data and historical trends, face limitations in accuracy and personalization. We present a novel approach leveraging machine learning algorithms, including neural networks, decision trees, and ensemble methods, alongside natural language processing and deep learning techniques. Our AI-driven models integrate diverse data sources, including medical histories, genetic information, lifestyle factors, and socio-economic indicators, to provide more accurate and individualized life expectancy predictions. Using a dataset of anonymized health records and historical mortality data, we demonstrate that our AI models significantly outperform traditional actuarial tables in predicting individual mortality risks. The enhanced predictive power of these models has substantial implications for the annuities market, enabling insurers to price products more precisely, manage longevity risk more effectively, and optimize reserve capital. Moreover, consumers benefit from fairer pricing and personalized product offerings. This article underscores the need for regulatory framework revisions to accommodate AI-driven methodologies in actuarial practices. We also discuss ethical considerations, data privacy concerns, and the challenge of model interpretability, highlighting areas for future research to ensure responsible deployment of AI in life expectancy predictions and annuity pricing

Temporal trends of the burden of ischemic stroke attributable to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in China from 1999 to 2019

BackgroundHigh levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) can lead to the occurrence and development of atherosclerosis, which is one of the important risk factors for ischemic stroke (IS). However, details regarding the evolution of the IS burden attributable to high LDL-C in China has not been available. The objective of this study was to examine the changes over time, from 1990 to 2019, in the burden of IS attributed to high levels of LDL-C in China and to estimate the individual impacts of age, period, and cohort on the burden of IS associated with high LDL-C.MethodsDetailed data on IS burden attributable to high LDL-C from 1990 to 2019 in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The numbers and age-standardized rates of IS-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high LDL-C were assessed by age and sex. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the burden of IS due to high LDL-C were analyzed using Joinpoint regression model. The age-period-cohort analysis was carried out to assess the individual impacts of age, period, and cohort on the trends over time of mortality and DALY rate.ResultsThe number of IS-related deaths and DALYs due to high LDL-C in China were 182.7 thousand and 4.43 million in 2019, respectively, both more than double the corresponding numbers reported in 1990. However, despite these increased, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) remained unchanged. In 2019, men under 84 years of age had higher death and under 79 years of age had higher DALYs than women. However, above these ages, the gender disparities were reversed. Furthermore, age-specific rates of death, as well as DALY of IS attributable to high LDL-C in 2019 increased with age for both women and men, except for death in adults over 95 years old; and were greater in men than in women. From 1990 to 2019, males consistently had a higher ASMR and ASDR than females in China. During 1990–2019, the ASMR in women slightly decreased before 1997, sharply increased from 1997 to 2004, and then continuously decreased from 2004 to 2019, with an overall AAPC value of -0.4% (95% CI -0.8%, -0.0%). However, for the ASMR of men in China, the overall trend is upward and the AAPC is 0.5%(95% CI 0.1%, 0.8%). The ASDR in women and men had the similar trend as the ASMR over the time, with an AAPC of -0.4% (95% CI -0.7%, -0.1%) and 0.3% (95% CI 0.1%, 0.5%), respectively. The age-period-cohort analysis indicated a rise in period effects and a decline in cohort effects on mortality and DALY rate associated with IS caused by high LDL-C in both genders. Age effect on mortality rates from IS due to high LDL-C showed an exponential increased with age in all women and men except for the 60–69 age group and over 95 age group. The age relative risk of IS DALY rate due to high LDL-C increased with age in both genders except for 65–74 age group and over 95 age group.ConclusionsFrom 1990 to 2019, the burden of IS caused by high LDL-C in China significantly increased among both sexes combined and among men, while significantly decreased among women. Elderly have a substantial burden of IS attributable to high LDL-C. Therefore, effective and tailored strategies based on gender and age for IS primary prevention and management of IS and high LDL-C are urgently needed in China.

Toxicity and Sublethal Effect of Chlorantraniliprole on Multiple Generations of Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae)

Due to the quick development of insecticide resistance, it is crucial to optimize management programs by understanding the sublethal effects of effective insecticides like chlorantraniliprole on Aedes aegypti L. populations. Using age-stage and two-sex life tables, we investigated the sublethal impacts of chlorantraniliprole on Ae. aegypti. Larval duration in the progeny of exposed parents was reduced by 0.33–0.42 days, whereas, the longevity of male and female adults was decreased by 1.43–3.05 days. Similarly, the egg-laying capacity of F1 and F2 progeny of the exposed parents was significantly reduced from 27.3% to 41.2%. The mean generation time (T) increased up to 11.8% in exposed populations, and the net reproduction rate (Ro) decreased by 51.50–55.60%. After 24 h of chlorantraniliprole treatment, there was a significant increase in cytochrome P450 activity. Contrarily, the activity of glutathione S-transferase (GST) initially declined but started increasing after 48 h of treatment. This research highlights the importance of chlorantraniliprole in mosquito management, as well as the importance of considering sublethal effects when developing strategies to handle them. Having a thorough understanding of the harmful effects of insecticides on mosquito populations can greatly enhance the effectiveness of insecticide-based interventions, while also minimizing the risk of pest resurgence.

Intersectionality of sex and race in COVID-19 mortality and vaccination inequities in Massachusetts

BackgroundInequities in COVID-19 incidence, morbidity, and mortality between racial and ethnic groups in the United States (U.S.) have been documented since the start of the pandemic in early 2020. Similarly, disparities by sex for COVID-19 morbidity and mortality have emerged, with men dying at a higher rate than women. Little research has been done to understand how the intersection of sex and race impacts COVID-19 inequities in Massachusetts (MA). This cross-sectional study examined how COVID-19 mortality rates (February 2020- May 2023) and vaccination rates (December 2020-February 2023) varied by sex across racial groups in MA.MethodsUsing Massachusetts Department of Public Health data of all COVID-19 mortality cases and primary series vaccinations in MA from 2020 to 2023, we calculated both age-specific and age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rates in order to account for differences in age distributions across sex-race groups.ResultsOverall, men across all age-race groups consistently had a higher mortality rate compared to their female counterparts. The age-standardized mortality rate difference between White men and White women is the smallest, with the rate for White men being 1.3 times higher than White women. The age-standardized mortality rate between Hispanic men and Hispanic women varies the largest, with the rate for Hispanic men being 1.7 times higher than Hispanic women. Notably, Black women and White women have similar vaccination rates, yet the age-standardized mortality rate for Black women is 1.4 times the rate of White women.ConclusionsOur findings show that there are disparities at the intersection of sex and race for COVID-19 mortality and vaccination in MA. This highlights the importance for targeted COVID-19 interventions at the intersection of sex and race and the need for detailed COVID-19 reporting by sex within race groups.

Addressing Regional Health Disparities: Estonia’s Approach to Burden of Disease Studies

Abstract Background Estonia, a small country defined by NUTS2 regions, faces challenges in assessing health disparities across its different counties when using global health data such as the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). Recognizing this limitation, Estonia initiated independent burden of disease studies in Estonia since 2013, with the findings being biennially published through the health statistics database of the National Institute for Health Development. The objective of this research is to assess the strengths and limitations inherent in various methods when calculating the years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs). Methods The approach to assess the burden of disease in Estonia differs somewhat from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodology. One key distinction lies in our utilization of a national life expectancy table and our presentation of results at the LAU1 regional level. These burden of disease studies utilize region-specific life tables supplied by Statistics Estonia, categorized by county and gender, to compute Years of Life Lost (YLLs), offering an opportunity to pinpoint and tackle regional health issues. Results Since the calculation of YLL (Years of Life Lost) in these past studies has relied upon Estonia’s regionalized life tables, categorized by county and gender, the results exhibit substantial disparities when juxtaposed with the Global Burden of Disease study conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Conclusions This research aims to delve deeper into these variations, examining the challenges related to methodology, the availability, and the quality of data, and most importantly, knowledge translation. Our own burden of disease studies empowers us to formulate informed policy recommendations precisely tailored to the distinctive needs of each county, thereby facilitating targeted interventions, and driving improvements in overall public health outcomes.

Novel R package to quantify and monetize burden of disease attributable to air pollution and noise

Abstract Background Ambient air pollution and noise substantially impact public health and the economy. Different methods to quantify these impacts are described in the literature. Objectives Within the European project BEST-COST (Burden of disease-based methods for estimating the socio-economic cost of environmental stressors), we aim to develop an open-source R package to quantify and monetise the disease burden attributable to air pollution and noise, including the impact of social inequalities. Methods The developed code will allow for different calculation pathways including: single baseline health data vs. age-specific estimates from life tables; relative and absolute risk; scenario comparison based on the population attributable fraction vs. population impact fraction; single-pollutant vs. correlated exposures; and outdoor vs. indoor air pollution. Moreover, the package can digest a variety of input data formats for the exposure-response function (e.g. relative risk with fixed shape vs. user-defined function) and exposure data (e.g. population-weighted mean vs. categorical distribution, spatial data). Eligible impact metrics will include morbidity incidence and prevalence, number of deaths, years of life lost, and years lived with disability. Finally, the R package will enable quantifying social inequities (using a novel multiple deprivation index) and monetising the attributable disease burden (using a state-of-the-art approach). Results During development, the R package will be tested in BEST-COST case studies in 5 European countries (BE, EE, FR, NO, PT), compared with existing tools, and discussed with key users in a workshop. The final R package will be available on GitHub in 2026. Conclusions This tool will allow the quantification and monetisation of the health impact of air pollution and noise. The R package will be a flexible programming resource that can be used as a standalone or combined with existing tools to build a more solid basis for evidence-based policy making. Key messages • This open-source tool will allow the quantification and monetisation of the health impact of air pollution and noise, including the impact of social inequalities. • The R package will be a flexible programming resource that can be used as a standalone or combined with existing tools to build a more solid basis for evidence-based policy making.

Trends and gender differentials in age-specific suicide mortality, 2004-2020, Cyprus

Abstract Background Cyprus is rarely included in international studies of suicide trends and the only published national data is two decades old. In the context of the first National Strategy for Mental Health, this study assessed suicide trends in 2004-2020, spanning the 2008 global and 2012-2013 Cyprus financial recessions, but falling short of the COVID-19 pandemic due to delays in recording. Methods Suicide deaths were obtained from the Mortality Registry (ICD-10, including “undetermined”). Directly standardized rates were calculated for four gender/age groups. Annual change was estimated in Poisson regression models with interaction terms to assess differential trends over time periods. Results There were 560 deaths (4-times more in men, &amp;gt;80% classified as ‘violent’ in both genders). In men, the suicide rate doubled from 4-5 to 9-10 per 100000, with most of the increase prior to 2012, representing 9% annual change (Rate Ratio 1.09, 95% CI 1.03, 1.15; p = 0.002). From 2013, the trend reversed (effect modification p-value &amp;lt; 0.001) with 4% annual decrease (95% CI -9%, 1%). Declines were not uniform across age-groups; rates in males aged 45-64 continued to rise, surpassing the previously high rate in males 25-44. In women, rates presented a declining trajectory from 4-5 per 100000 to 2-3 over this period, widening the gender differential. M-to-F ratio was 5.33 (95% CI 3.46, 8.19) in 2017-2020 compared to 2.73 (1.88, 3.95) in 2004-2008. A shift to violent methods was observed, with hanging now ranking as most common in both females (1 in 3) and males (1 in 2). Conclusions While relatively lower compared to other European countries, the gender differential in suicide mortality has widened in Cyprus, with steep rises in all male age-groups up to 2012 and continuing rises in males 45-64, but declines in female rates over the same period. Further analysis of trends in relation to unemployment and other socio-economic indicators is warranted as well as continuous monitoring of trends. Key messages • After steep rises in suicide across all male age-groups up to 2012, against a declining trajectory in female rates, rates in males 45-64 continued to rise, further widening the gender differential. • The age profiling and shift towards more violent methods in both genders should inform the first National Strategy for Mental Health, while continuous monitoring of trends is warranted.

Pretreatment with dual antiplatelet therapy in acute myocardial infarction

Abstract Background Combined antithrombotic therapy prevents thrombus progression and its components embolization, and thus, it has an essential role in coronary microcirculation (re)perfusion in acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Pretreatment with P2Y12 inhibitors, on top of aspirin, before primary angioplasty has not been satisfactorily studied in STEMI. Purpose To investigate the impact of combined antiplatelet therapy on-treatment on the outcome of patients with STEMI. Methods Patients who suffered STEMI during the 7 years (1/2016-12/2022) were included. The analysis is based on population data from the National Health Information System (NHIS). Information on AMIs from the Intervention Module of the Registry of Cardiovascular Operations and Interventions was combined with prescription data from the Registry of Reimbursed Health Services 6 months before MI and identification of deceased patients from the Registry of Death Records. Data from the NHIS covers almost 100% of all cases in the population. Standard descriptive statistics and test were applied in the analysis. Multivariate logistic regression adjusted for clinical and procedural characteristics was adopted to analyze the influence of pretreatment on the risk of 1) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), 2) clinical condition at admission – need of mechanical ventilation and circulatory instability (Killip III,IV), 3) initial TIMI flow through the infarct-related coronary artery (IRA ), and 4) short term mortality. Results The study sample consisted of data from 40,383 STEMIs of which 1,601 patients were on dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with aspirin plus iP2Y12 lasting 1 to 6 months before the event occurred. Patients on chronic oral anticoagulation (N 2101) were excluded. Patients on DAPT versus those without antiplatelet therapy or on aspirin at a daily dose of 100 mg were older, had higher comorbidity rates, and were at higher risk of mortality (Table). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that patients on DAPT at the time of MI onset and lasting for at least one month had a higher likelihood of preserved perfusion through the IRA (Odds ratio and 95% Confidence interval, OR (95% CI) 1. 193 (1.074; 1.326), p=0.001). However, the DAPT pretreatment did not reduce the risk of OHCA, the need for mechanical ventilation, or initial circulatory destabilization. It did not positively affect the prognosis of the patients (Figure ). Conclusion The significant benefit of the DAPT pretreatment on the preservation of infarct-related coronary artery flow did not translate into a positive effect on the prognosis of STEMI patients.

Risk factors of 30-day mortality following cardiac surgery in adults with congenital heart disease: analysis from the Japanese registry

Abstract Background With advancements in pediatric therapies, the adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) population has grown consistently. ACHD patients often face complications necessitating cardiac surgery, and understanding surgical risk factors is essential. Purpose This study aims to assess ACHD surgical risk factors using big data, addressing evidence gaps in previous research limited to univariate analysis due to few perioperative adverse events. Methods We analyzed the Japanese Registry of All Cardiac and Vascular Diseases-Diagnosis Procedure Combination (JROAD-DPC) database from April 2013 to March 2020. The JROAD-DPC database covers nearly all teaching hospitals with cardiovascular beds participation in JROAD. Our study included ACHD patients (&amp;gt;15 years) undergoing open-heart surgery. Our primary outcome was 30-day mortality. We assessed clinical backgrounds, admission status, treatment, and length of hospital stay. Results Out of 13,677 ACHD patients (mean age: 53 years, females 47%) undergoing cardiac surgery assessed for 30-day mortality, 13,516 (98.8%) patients were categorized into the survival group and 161 (1.2%) into the death group. Mortality rates varied by complexity of congenital heart disease (CHD): 0.8% for simple, 1.8% for moderate, and 0.9% for great. The figure shows that a significant increase in 30-day mortality rates with age was demonstrated in simple and moderate complexity (p&amp;lt;0.001 for trend analysis in both categories). In contrast, for cases of great complexity, the increase in 30-day mortality rates with aging was not statistically significant (p=0.443). The death group was significantly older and had higher rates of ambulance admissions, renal disease, and peripheral vascular disease. Intra-aortic balloon pumps (IABP), veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO), and dialysis during hospitalization were significantly higher among deceased patients. Length of ICU stay was significantly longer in the death group (median [IQR]; 3 [2-4] vs. 6 [3-11], p&amp;lt;0.001). Cox proportional-hazards model showed that age, moderate complexity, emergency admission, hospital bed counts, renal disease, and use of IABP and VA-ECMO were independently associated with 30-day mortality (Table). Conclusions The present study, which utilizes the nationwide administrative DPC database, demonstrates that surgical outcomes for patients with ACHD, as measured by 30-day mortality rates, are generally favorable. These outcomes significantly depend on factors such as age, complexity of CHD, emergency admissions, hospital capacity, renal disease, and use of mechanical circulatory support.

Cangrelor versus no cangrelor during percutaneous coronary intervention in hemodynamically unstable patients: a cohort study on benefits and risks

Abstract Background Cangrelor is an intravenous P2Y12 inhibitor which, according to the European guidelines, may be considered for administration in acute coronary syndrome during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Little is known regarding benefits and risks of such administration in hemodynamically unstable patients. Purpose To investigate the effects of cangrelor versus no cangrelor during PCI regarding major adverse cardiac events (MACE), in-hospital bleeding, and all-cause mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock and/or cardiac arrest. Methods The study population was extracted from the Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry (SCAAR) and included patients with cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest undergoing PCI during the years 2016-2022. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to create comparable groups. After matching, all variables used for calculating propensity score were balanced (standardized mean difference&amp;lt;0.1). Outcomes were MACE within 30 days, in-hospital bleeding, and all-cause mortality within 30 days. Risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. When RR deviated from the null, the risk difference (RD) was determined. Results In all, 2,100 (66%) out of 3,206 patients with cardiogenic shock and/or cardiac arrest were included in the PSM analyses (median age: 69 years; 76% male; 78% ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI)). Comparing cangrelor versus no cangrelor in this matched set of patients, the RR was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.84; 1.04) for MACE; 1.51 (1.02; 2.25) for in-hospital bleeding, with an RD of 1.9 percentage points (0.10; 3.7); and 0.93 (0.82; 1.04) for all-cause mortality (Table). In the PSM analysis regarding patients with cardiogenic shock, 1,098 (60%) out of 1,815 patients were included (median age: 71 years; 68% male; 82% STEMI). For these patients, RR was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.74; 0.97) for MACE, with an RD of -7.5 percentage points (-1.6; -13); 1.31 (0.82; 2.09) for in-hospital bleeding; and 0.83 (0.72; 0.95) for all-cause mortality, with an RD of -8.0 percentage points (-2.2; -14). In the PSM analysis regarding patients with cardiac arrest, 1,388 (76%) out of 1,827 patients were included (median age: 67 years; 81% male; 75% STEMI). RR was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.86; 1.12) for MACE; 1.53 (0.95; 2.49) for in-hospital bleeding; and 0.98 (0.86; 1.13) for all-cause mortality. Conclusion For patients with cardiogenic shock, but not for patients with cardiac arrest, administration of cangrelor versus no cangrelor during PCI was associated with a reduction in both MACE and all-cause mortality, with numbers needed to treat of 14 and 13, respectively. Overall, for patients with cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest, administration of cangrelor versus no cangrelor during PCI was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital bleeding with a number needed to harm of 53.

Paediatric iGAS Morbidity and Mortality in Ireland 2022-2023 episodic upsurge

Abstract There was an unseasonal upsurge in invasive Group A Streptococcal (iGAS) activity in Ireland during the 2022/2023 winter period. In particular, there was an increase in the proportion of paediatric infections and a rise in the age specific death rate for those under the age of 18, from 0.10 to 1.43 per 100,000. This review aimed to describe the demographic and clinical factors associated with paediatric iGAS infection during this upsurge. All iGAS cases under the age of 16 years, notified to Public Health between 1st October and 30th June 2023, were included. A review of hospital records for each case was conducted using a standardised electronic data collection proforma. Descriptive, univariate and multivariate analysis was conducted using SPSS statistical package. There was a total of 183 cases of iGAS notified during this upsurge in Ireland. A hospital chart review was conducted for 169 of these cases, giving a response rate of 92.3%. The median age was 4 years (range 0-15,) with 44.4% (75) having a previous healthcare attendance during their illness. Varicella coinfection occurred in 27.8% (47) of cases. There was respiratory viral coinfection in 40.8% (69) of cases, and this was significantly associated with an increased risk of death RR 6.49 (95% CI 4.45 - 29.08) p &amp;lt; 0.05. A respiratory site of infection was also significantly associated with an increased risk of death RR 10.13 (95% CI 2.23 - 45.95) p &amp;lt; 0.001. However, both factors did not remain significant once adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity and deprivation index. This national review demonstrated the significant burden of paediatric iGAS morbidity and mortality during this upsurge. A significant proportion of cases, 37.9% (64) were associated with vaccine preventable illness, with respiratory viral infections and a respiratory site of infection both being significantly associated with an increased risk of death. Key messages • A significant proportion of iGAS cases were associated with a vaccine preventable illness. • A respiratory site of iGAS infection was significantly associated with an increased risk of death in paediatric cases.

Impact of Noncommunicable Diseases on Years of Life Lost in FB&amp;H During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract This study aims to comprehensively investigate the impact of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) on years of life lost (YLL) within the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&amp;H) across distinct phases: pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. Given that NCDs currently represent more than half of the global disease burden, our focus lies in assessing YLL specifically for cerebral infarction (I63-I64) and diabetes mellitus (E10-E14). Conducting a retrospective data analysis, we utilized mortality data sourced from the Institute for Statistics of FB&amp;H to quantify YLL. This assessment involved multiplying age-specific mortality figures by the remaining life expectancy at the corresponding age, utilizing the GBD 2019 life expectancy table. Examining the period between 2019 and 2022, our analysis aimed to elucidate the pandemic’s potential influence on NCD burden, through the examination of age-standardized YLL rates based on the world standard population. In 2019, YLL attributable to I63-I64 for both sexes totaled 41,244 in 2019, escalating to 44,790 in 2020, and subsequently decreasing to 39,439 and 32,055 in the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022, respectively. For diabetes mellitus (E10-E14), YLL in 2019 amounted to 23,675, with figures for 2020, 2021, and 2022 standing retrospectively at 24,329, 24,114, 19,125. The increase in 2020 may be attributed, in part, to initial healthcare hesitancy during the pandemic’s onset, leading to delayed treatment and heightened mortality rates. Furthermore, patients who died in 2020 from C-19 without being tested may have skewed mortality registration by inflating rates attributed to pre-existing conditions. The declining rates thereafter could be due to a harvesting pandemic effect, in that people who were previously ill died prematurely from C-19. These insights show the pandemic’s profound impact on NCD-related mortality, underscoring the urgent need for targeted interventions and healthcare strategies. Key messages • A substantial reduction in years of life lost (YLL) related to certain noncommunicable diseases was observed during the pandemic. • The pandemic significantly influenced mortality among individuals with noncommunicable diseases, driven partly by healthcare hesitancy and potential misregistration of causes of death.

Survival penalty in patients undergoing transcatheter versus surgical aortic valve replacement: is it just a question of frailty? Insights from a large cohort with demographic matching

Abstract Background Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are the reference treatments for aortic stenosis. Conflicting data exist on late survival results of these two techniques. While randomised controlled trials (with highly selected patients) assert the non-inferiority of TAVR, real-world data from large registries (with potential uncorrected confounders) suggest the opposite. Comparing the survival rates of SAVR and TAVR with those of a matched reference population could help circumvent potential biases of direct procedural comparisons and quantify the impact of frailty on post-operative survival. Purpose Our study aims to compare the 5-year overall survival rates of SAVR, non-frail TAVR, and frail TAVR patients with the survival of their demographically matched reference population. Methods This study included all consecutive patients undergoing either SAVR or TAVR at a tertiary hospital between January 2010 and December 2021. Each patient underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment by an experienced geriatric team, from which a Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was derived using a validated classification tree. Frailty was defined as a CFS ≥ 6, in accordance with ESC guidelines. The patients were stratified into 3 subgroups: SAVR, non-frail TAVR, and frail TAVR patients. For each subgroup, a corresponding reference population was generated using national actuarial tables to ensure individual-level matching based on age, gender, and year of observation. Survival of each subgroup was then compared to its corresponding reference population over a 5-year period using standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and one-sample logrank tests. Results Our cohort included 1183 SAVR, 254 non-frail TAVR, and 151 frail TAVR patients, with mean ages of 74.1, 85.4, and 85.7 years, and median EuroSCORE II of 2.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4%, respectively. Survival of SAVR patients was equivalent to the reference population (80.1 vs 80.9% survival; SMR = 1.06 [0.89 – 1.25]; p = 0.454; Figure 1A). Similarly, non-frail TAVR patients also achieved survival rates comparable to those of the reference population (50.9 vs 54.0% survival; SMR = 0.94 [0.76 – 1.18]; p = 0.549; Figure 1B). However, frail TAVR patients faced a significantly reduced survival rate (41.7% vs 54.0% survival; SMR = 1.48 [1.15 – 1.90]; p &amp;lt; 0.001; Figure 1C). The frailty of this subgroup could therefore explain a 48% increase in mortality risk compared with their reference population after 5 years. Conclusions Treating non-frail patients with aortic stenosis through TAVR or SAVR restores life expectancy to levels comparable with their reference population, challenging results from other real-world registries. In contrast, TAVR in frail patients is associated with worse survival, raising the question of treatment futility in this specific subgroup. Refining the selection of frail patients who may benefit from TAVR remains an important clinical challenge.

Intersecting Pathways: Understanding Dementia, Hearing Loss, and Health Disparities

Abstract Background Dementia is a major public health concern, affecting care dependency and disability in older ages. In Europe, around 14.1 million people live with dementia, a number that is expected to increase to 15.9 million by 2040. Hearing loss (HL), followed by education, has been proposed as the most important modifiable risk factor for dementia. This study aims to investigate how sex, educational attainment and HL intersect to influence dementia-free life expectancy (DemFLE) in older adults. Methods Using population register data covering all Finnish residents aged 50 years or older from 2010 to 2019, we apply discrete-time multistate Markov models. Transition probabilities between states, such as HL and dementia, are estimated with multinomial logit models stratified by sex and education. Multistate life tables are used to compute sex- and education-specific DemFLE. Results We identified 316,361 individuals with a diagnosis of dementia and 317,115 individuals with a diagnosis of HL, representing 1,449,873 and 2,738,970 person-years respectively. 14% of individuals with HL were eventually diagnosed with dementia, compared to only 8% of individuals without HL. We hypothesise that DemFLE will vary significantly by sex and education, with additional modulation by the presence of HL. Specifically, we expect that the presence of HL will further reduce DemFLE, and that the magnitude of this reduction will be relatively greater among those with lower educational attainment. Conclusions This study contributes to the emerging literature on the impact of hearing loss on dementia. While both dementia and hearing loss are irreversible health conditions, hearing loss can be managed by hearing aids. If we find evidence that hearing loss is associated with different levels of risk of dementia by educational attainment, it would suggest avenues for effective interventions and public health policies to ensure more equal ageing processes in the population. Key messages • Hearing loss may intersect with education and sex in the risk of dementia, providing evidence for the importance of addressing hearing health inequalities in dementia prevention efforts. • Understanding the interactions between hearing loss, education and sex can inform policies to promote healthy ageing and reduce the burden of dementia on individuals and health systems.

Burden of inflammatory bowel disease in Belgium, 2020

Abstract Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) comprises digestive disorders resulting from non-infectious inflammation of the colon and gastrointestinal tract. With its global prevalence on the rise, IBD poses significant challenges to healthcare systems. There is a need for more accurate disease burden estimates to guide decision-making processes within the health sector. As a part of the Belgian national burden of disease study (BeBOD), this study aims to estimate the burden of IBD in Belgium based on locally available data. We estimated the Belgian IBD burden in 2020 in terms of mortality, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). As there is no single comprehensive data source on prevalence of IBD in Belgium, a critical appraisal of existing local and national data sources was conducted. Prevalence data were combined with disability weights to yield YLDs. YLLs were calculated using the most recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 reference life table and the number of deaths caused by non-infective IBD (ICD-10 K50-52). Cause of death data were extracted from Statbel, the Belgian statistical office. The best available data source to estimate the IBD prevalence in Belgium was a widespread network of general practitioners. The prevalence of IBD was 1.5% in 2020. The prevalence-based YLD for IBD was 220 YLDs per 100 000, while the YLL rate was 11.5 per 100 000. We estimated 26 276 DALYs caused by IBD in 2020. Of the total DALYs caused by IBD, 5% were due to YLLs and 95% were due to YLDs. Our burden estimates for IBD in Belgium were however higher than those of the GBD study. IBD imposes a low fatal burden, whereas the burden of morbidity is more prominent. Our findings could be useful for policy makers to justify and prioritize resource allocation. Integrating the current research in BeBOD will allow monitoring the burden of IBD over time. Key messages • Inflammatory bowel disease is characterized by a substantial non-fatal burden due to chronic relapsing and persistent symptoms. • National inflammatory bowel disease burden estimates are useful to guide decision-making within the health sector.