Human pathogenic micro-organisms in coastal waters receive increasing attention. Climate change with its multiple effects on micro-organisms is one major reason. Changing survival rates, sources and new invasive species are a challenge for bathing water quality management. We present a new online bathing water information system. It includes an alerting system, software to supports communication between authorities, local municipalities and the public as well as simulation tools, based on a 3D-flow and particle tracking model. In scenario simulations with focus on enterococci and Escherichia coli bacteria we show the potential impact of climate change on bathing water quality and the potential relevance as a decision support system in the large, shallow Szczecin lagoon. Szczecin lagoon in the Baltic at the German/Polish border is a pollution hot-spot and frequent bathing prohibitions hamper tourism development.Because of climate change, the risk of river floods is supposed to increase in future. Higher discharge causes an increased transport velocity in the river flow. At the same time, run-off from city surfaces and agricultural land along the river can cause increased E. coli concentrations in all surface waters. As a consequence E. coli and especially Enterococci are transported far into the lagoon and high concentrations can cause bathing water quality problems even on distant beaches. Especially heavy lasting rain in the river basin together with local rain events are a serious threat for bathing water quality in the lagoon and will very likely require a closing of beaches for swimming. Similar to other coastal waters, a wide range of other potentially human pathogenic micro-organisms might create a threat for the lagoon in future.
Read full abstract