Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Research Articles

Predictive value of Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2-Diabetes risk model and arterial stiffness for cardiovascular events in the Asian population with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Individuals with diabetes are at high risk of developing cardiovascular events. The present study investigated the predictive value of the cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) when added to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2-Diabetes (SCORE2-Diabetes) risk algorithm to predict cardiovascular events in the Asian population. The SCORE2-Diabetes risk was assessed in 1,502 patients with diabetes, aged 40-69 years. Then, we further stratified each 10-year risk category with a CAVI value of 9.0. The primary outcomes (composite of all causes of death, myocardial infarction, stroke and hospitalization for heart failure) were assessed over 5 years. The mean age of the population was 59.8 ± 6.4 years. The proportion of 10-year risk according to the SCORE2-Diabetes risk of low, moderate, high and very high risk identified at 7.2, 30.0, 27.2 and 35.6%, respectively. The mean CAVI value was 8.4 ± 1.4, and approximately 35.4% of the patients had CAVI ≥9.0. The SCORE2-Diabetes risk algorithm independently predicted the primary outcomes in patients with diabetes (hazard ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-1.22), whereas CAVI did not (hazard ratio 1.03, 95% CI 0.89-1.18). The C-index for the primary outcomes of the SCORE2-Diabetes risk algorithm alone was 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77). The combination of SCORE2-Diabetes and CAVI, both in the continuous value and risk groups, did not improve discrimination (C-index 0.72, 95% CI 0.67-0.77 and 0.68, 95% CI 0.64-0.74, respectively). Adding the CAVI to the SCORE2-Diabetes risk algorithm did not improve individual risk stratification in patients with diabetes.

Implications of Five Different Risk Models In Primary Prevention Guidelines.

A lack of consensus exists across guidelines as to which risk model should be used for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Our objective was to determine potential improvements in the number needed to treat (NNT) and number of events prevented (NEP) using different risk models in patients eligible for risk stratification. A retrospective observational cohort was assembled from primary care patients in Ontario, Canada between January 1st, 2010, to December 31st, 2014 and followed for up to 5 years. Risk estimation was undertaken in patients 40-75 years of age, without CVD, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs), a recalibrated FRS (R-FRS), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2), and the low-risk region recalibrated SCORE2 (LR-SCORE2). The cohort consisted of 47,399 patients (59% women, mean age 54). The NNT with statins was lowest for SCORE2 at 40, followed by LR-SCORE2 at 41, R-FRS at 43, PCEs at 55, and FRS at 65. Models that selected for individuals with a lower NNT recommended statins to fewer, but higher risk patients. For instance, SCORE2 recommended statins to 7.9% of patients (5-year CVD incidence 5.92%). The FRS, however, recommended statins to 34.6% of patients (5-year CVD incidence 4.01%). Accordingly, the NEP was highest for the FRS at 406 and lowest for SCORE2 at 156. Newer models such as SCORE2 may improve statin allocation to higher risk groups with a lower NNT but prevent fewer events at the population level.

The correlation between liver fibrosis and the 10‐year estimated risk of cardiovascular disease in adults with metabolic‐associated fatty liver disease: A cross‐sectional study in Vietnam

AbstractBackground and AimsMetabolic‐associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) emerged as a novel term replacing nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in 2020. While most MAFLD patients are asymptomatic, long‐term hepatic fat accumulation may lead to liver fibrosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Nevertheless, the relationship between MAFLD and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the 10‐year estimated CVD risk in individuals diagnosed with MAFLD.MethodsBetween January 2022 and August 2023, this cross‐sectional study enrolled 139 MAFLD patients. We employed the systematic coronary risk evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and the systematic coronary risk evaluation 2–older persons (SCORE2‐OP) scoring systems to evaluate and categorize the 10‐year CV risk. Liver fibrosis was assessed using biochemical parameters (FIB‐4, AST/ALT, and APRI), and their correlation with CV risk was examined.ResultsMost MAFLD patients were categorized as having high or very high CV risk based on the SCORE2 and SCORE2‐OP. Liver fibrosis, measured by the FIB‐4 score, significantly differed among the various CV risk groups. Moreover, FIB‐4 correlated positively with SCORE2 and SCORE2‐OP (r = 0.588, p < 0.001), indicating its substantial predictive ability for identifying individuals at very high CV risk (AUC = 0.765, 95% CI: 0.686–0.845, p < 0.001). A FIB‐4 score of 1.275 demonstrated 81% sensitivity and 64% specificity in predicting very high CV risk among MAFLD patients.ConclusionPatients with MAFLD predominantly face high or very high CV risks, with elevated liver fibrosis associated with increased 10‐year estimated CVD risk. The FIB‐4 score exhibits promising predictive value for identifying MAFLD patients at very high risk of CV disease.

Musculoskeletal ultrasound abnormalities in asymptomatic hyperuricemic patients: Association with cardiovascular risk factors

To assess the relation between musculoskeletal ultrasound (MSUS) abnormalities and cardiovascular risk factors in asymptomatic and symptomatic hyperuricemic patients. The study included 66 hyperuricemic patients. 33 were asymptomatic and 33 were symptomatic. The socio-demographic features, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure measurement and musculoskeletal examination were recorded. Serum uric acid (SUA), serum creatinine (s.Cr.), total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) and triglycerides (TG) were measured and estimated glomerular filtration rate (e GFR) was calculated using chronic kidney disease-epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI). Cardiovascular risk was calculated using Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation of the European Society of Cardiology (SCORE/ESC) and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease of American College of Cardiology (ASCVD/ACC). MSUS of the knees, ankles and 1st metatarsophalangeal joints (MTPs) was performed and specific gout signs (aggregates, double contour and tophi) were assessed. There was no association between MSUS abnormalities and either individual or overall cardiovascular risk factors except the negative correlation between the age and the high density lipoprotein (HDL) level and the positivity of the patients (presence of at least one of the specific gout sign "aggregates, double contour or tophi" in at least one out of the six assessed joints "both knees, ankles and 1st MTPs" among the symptomatic group. The association between MSUS abnormalities and cardiovascular risk factors in the hyperuricemic patients is not yet clear and further studies are needed to introduce it as a screening modality for these patients.

Differences in cardiovascular risk and health-related quality of life in COPD patients according to clinical phenotype

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a high prevalence and a major impact on health-related quality of life (HRQL). COPD exacerbations are an important cause of morbidity and mortality, affecting cardiovascular risk, and are associated with poorer health status. The aim of this study was to assess the association between cardiovascular risk (CVR) and HRQL, according to exacerbator or non-exacerbator phenotype. We undertook a cross-sectional, observational, descriptive study of 107 patients with COPD. Patients with two or more moderate exacerbations or one severe exacerbation in the previous year were considered as exacerbators. The CVR was calculated with the Framingham scale and SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation) and the HRQL was assessed with the generic questionnaire Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36), the St George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) and the COPD Assessment Test (CAT). Statistical analysis was done with SPSS version 26.0 for Windows. The SF-36 and the SGRQ showed lower values for the exacerbator phenotype, indicating a poorer quality of life. The CAT questionnaire showed values above 10 for the exacerbator phenotype, and lower values in the non-exacerbator group. After categorizing the sample according to their median age (65 years), we found a greater deterioration in HRQL in patients under 65 years of age according to the SF-36, the SGRQ and the CAT. We also detected differences in HRQL between non-exacerbator patients with a high CVR according to the Framingham (≥ 20%) and SCORE (≥ 5%) scales compared to those without this risk. A tendency towards worse HRQL was observed in non-exacerbator patients with a high CVR, which was statistically significant for the SGRQ impact domain on the SCORE scale. The CAT also showed a worse quality of life in non-exacerbator patients with a high CVR, which was significant in the Framingham model (Framingham high risk 8.41 vs non-high risk 6.05, p < 0.01). These differences were not observed in exacerbator patients. Our findings confirm that a high CVR influences HRQL in patients with COPD, especially in non-exacerbator patients with a high CVR, measured according to the SGRQ and the CAT.

Adherence to 2020 ESC recommendations on physical activity in a population with different cardiovascular risk levels: A prospective population-based study from the CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study

IntroductionIn 2020, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommends 150 min of moderate or 75 min of vigorous-intensity PA per week. While general population PA adherence is suboptimal, its status among those with previous ASCVD or high ASCVD risk remains unknown. We aimed to assess objective adherence to ESC PA recommendations using accelerometer-based measurement among these populations. MethodologyWe used data from the Swiss CoLaus|PsyCoLaus cohort study (2014–2016). PA was measured using a 14-day wrist accelerometer. Adherence was defined as > 80 % of recommended PA achievement. Adherence was investigated separately among participants with previous ASCVD and among cardiovascular risk groups (based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation SCORE-1 and more recent SCORE2) with simple and multivariable logistic regressions. Participants’ characteristics were also evaluated as independent factors after adjustment. ResultsWe studied 1867 participants (median age: 61.2 years, 51.3 % female). ESC PA Adherence reached 55.5 % overall, and 37 % in those with previous ASCVD. Multivariable analysis showed no significant association between previous ASCVD or high cardiovascular risk and PA adherence (Odds ratio adjusted [ORa] 0.9, 95 % Confidence Interval [CI] 0.6–1.4 and ORa 0.7, 95 % CI 0.4–1.2, respectively). Age (≥60 years old), obesity, smoking, chronic renal disease, hypertension, diabetes and benzodiazepine use were significantly associated with lower likelihood of PA adherence in multivariable logistic regression. ConclusionAdherence to ESC PA guidelines, particularly in participants with higher cardiovascular risk, was poor. Since PA adherence was associated with modifiable risk factors (e.g., obesity, smoking, and benzodiazepine use), maintained efforts to implement the ESC recommendations are advised.

The Impact of Shared Assistance between Dermatology and Internal Medicine on Patients with Psoriasis.

Background: The care of psoriatic patients requires a multidisciplinary approach that addresses not only skin involvement but also cardiovascular risk factors. Coordination between dermatology and internal medicine departments, with a specific focus on treatment and long-term follow-up, can substantially improve the course of a disease and its associated complications. Objective: to evaluate the effects of the holistic management of patients with psoriasis by a multidisciplinary team consisting of dermatology and internal medicine specialists. Methods: We conducted an observational, prospective, single-center case-control study between October 2016 and December 2019 in San Jorge University Hospital (Huesca, Spain). Cases included patients undergoing follow-up in the combined dermatology and internal medicine clinic. The control group consisted of an equivalent number of randomly selected, age- and sex-matched patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis who were seen in the general dermatology department of the same hospital during the same time period. Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome was the control of psoriatic disease and cardiovascular risk factors such as weight, blood pressure, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), SCORE index (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation), and blood test parameters, as well as diet, physical exercise, and habits such as tobacco and alcohol consumption. To compare data collected over time, data were grouped into three time periods: baseline (t1), intermediate (t2), and final (t3). Results: The case group consisted of 27 patients, and the control group consisted of 25 patients. Multivariate analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between the 10-year risk of experiencing a cardiovascular event (SCORE) and the clinical characteristics and analytical variables of patients with psoriasis and controls (n = 52). The variables that were significantly associated with a higher 10-year risk of experiencing a cardiovascular event were age (OR, 1.33; CI95% 1.21-1.50; p < 0.001); smoking (OR, 5.05, CI95% 1.07-27.37; p = 0.047); PASI (OR, 7.98, CI95% 2.32-35.86; p = 0.003); BSA (OR, 1.22, CI95% 1.01-1.49; p = 0.044); and being a control patient (OR, 3.26; CI95% 0.84-13.56; p = 0.029). Conclusions: Pharmacological and behavioral interventions carried out as part of the procedure of the multidisciplinary clinic resulted in improvements in the following variables relative to the control group: PASI, BSA, DLQI, PSOLIFE, lipid profile, insulin and HOMA-IR GGT levels, vitamin D levels, and SCORE. These findings indicate the beneficial effect of the multidisciplinary clinic, which reduced the risk of cardiovascular events in psoriatic patients with metabolic comorbidities.

Development and validation of a new algorithm for improved cardiovascular risk prediction

QRISK algorithms use data from millions of people to help clinicians identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Here, we derive and externally validate a new algorithm, which we have named QR4, that incorporates novel risk factors to estimate 10-year CVD risk separately for men and women. Health data from 9.98 million and 6.79 million adults from the United Kingdom were used for derivation and validation of the algorithm, respectively. Cause-specific Cox models were used to develop models to predict CVD risk, and the performance of QR4 was compared with version 3 of QRISK, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores. We identified seven novel risk factors in models for both men and women (brain cancer, lung cancer, Down syndrome, blood cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, oral cancer and learning disability) and two additional novel risk factors in women (pre-eclampsia and postnatal depression). On external validation, QR4 had a higher C statistic than QRISK3 in both women (0.835 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.833–0.837) and 0.831 (95% CI, 0.829–0.832) for QR4 and QRISK3, respectively) and men (0.814 (95% CI, 0.812–0.816) and 0.812 (95% CI, 0.810–0.814) for QR4 and QRISK3, respectively). QR4 was also more accurate than the ASCVD and SCORE2 risk scores in both men and women. The QR4 risk score identifies new risk groups and provides superior CVD risk prediction in the United Kingdom compared with other international scoring systems for CVD risk.

Coronary atherosclerotic burden in veteran athletes: The relationship between cardiovascular risk and volume of exercise

Introduction and objectivesThe association between exercise and coronary atherosclerosis still remains unclarified. We aimed to analyze the prevalence of high coronary atherosclerotic burden in veteran athletes, considering cardiovascular (CV) risk and volume of exercise. MethodsA total of 105 asymptomatic male veteran athletes (48±5.6 years old) were studied. A high coronary atherosclerotic burden was defined as one of the following characteristics in coronary computed tomography angiography: calcium score >100, >75th percentile, obstructive plaques, involving left main, three-vessels or two-vessels including proximal anterior descending artery, segment involvement score >5 or CT-adapted Leaman score ≥5. CV risk was stratified by SCORE2 and volume of exercise by metabolic equivalent task score. ResultsMost athletes (n=88) were engaged in endurance sports for 17.1±9.8 years, with a median exercise volume of 66 [IQR 44–103] metabolic equivalent of tasks/hour/week. The mean Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 was 2.8±1.5%; 76.9% of athletes had a low-moderate risk and none a very high risk. High coronary atherosclerotic burden was present in 25.7% athletes. Athletes with high cardiovascular risk and high exercise volume (above the median) showed significantly high coronary atherosclerotic burden compared to those with low-moderate risk and high volume (50.0% vs. 15.6%; p=0.017). Among athletes with low to moderate risk, a high volume of exercise tended to be protective, while in those with low volume, there was similar rate of high coronary atherosclerotic burden, regardless of CV risk. ConclusionsA combination of higher volume of exercise and high cardiovascular risk revealed the worst association with coronary atherosclerosis in veteran athletes. The relationship between these variables is controversial, but integrating exercise characteristics and risk assessment into preparticipation evaluation is essential.

Large-scale plasma proteomics in the UK Biobank modestly improves prediction of major cardiovascular events in a population without previous cardiovascular disease.

Improved identification of individuals at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease would enable targeted interventions and potentially lead to reductions in mortality and morbidity. Our aim was to determine whether use of large-scale proteomics improves prediction of cardiovascular events beyond traditional risk factors (TRFs). Using proximity extension assays, 2919 plasma proteins were measured in 38 380 participants of the UK Biobank. Both data- and literature-based feature selection and trained models using extreme gradient boosting machine learning were used to predict risk of major cardiovascular events (MACE: fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke and coronary artery revascularisation) during a 10-year follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI) were used to evaluate the additive value of selected protein panels to MACE prediction by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) or the 10 TRFs used in SCORE2. SCORE2 and SCORE2 refitted to UK Biobank data predicted MACE with AUCs of 0.740 and 0.749, respectively. data-driven selection identified 114 proteins of greatest relevance for prediction. Prediction of MACE was not improved by using these proteins alone (AUC of 0.758) but was significantly improved by combining these proteins with SCORE2 or the 10 TRFs (AUC=0.771, p<001, NRI=0.140, and AUC=0.767, p=0.03, NRI 0.053, respectively). Literature-based protein selection (113 proteins from five previous studies) also improved risk prediction beyond TRFs while a random selection of 114 proteins did not. Large-scale plasma proteomics with data-driven and literature-based protein selection modestly improves prediction of future MACE beyond TRFs.

The relationship between glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), hematocrit, mean platelet volume, total white blood cell counts, Visceral Adiposity Index, and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) in patients without diabetes

The relationship between glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), hematocrit, mean platelet volume, total white blood cell counts, Visceral Adiposity Index, and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) in patients without diabetes

European Lipid Guidelines and Cardiovascular Risk Estimation: Current Status and Future Challenges.

Genetic, experimental, epidemiologic, and clinical data support the causal role of elevated levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The recommendations of the 2019 European guidelines are based on the concept of differential CV risk, which in turn defines the LDL-C goals that should be achieved. The 2019 ESC/EAS guidelines for dyslipidaemia use the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model to assess CV risk, which provides a 10-year risk of fatal CV event. The SCORE model has recently been updated to reflect current rates of cardiovascular disease in Europe. The new SCORE2 model provides estimates of the 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events in people aged 40-69 years, thus improving the identification of individuals at higher risk of a CVD event. However, as in the SCORE age is the main determinant of risk, young people have a relatively low estimated 10-year risk of a CV event even with high levels of one or more causal risk factors. Individuals with familial hypercholesterolaemia, who have elevated LDL-C levels from birth and have a high risk of premature CVD, are one example. The concept of cumulative LDL exposure is thus becoming increasingly important. This is also supported by Mendelian randomisation studies showing that carrying genetic variants associated with lower LDL-C levels reduces CV risk. These observations have introduced the concept of "cholesterol-years", which takes into account both LDL-C levels and time of exposure. It is crucial that future European guidelines pay more attention to this point.

Participation in cardiovascular screening consultations, the who, when and why - A cohort study on patients with rheumatoid arthritis

BackgroundIn accordance with the EULAR recommendations, the Danish Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases have systematically invited patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment since 2011. Patients with high risk are invited to a follow-up screening after one year. To optimize the screening and tailor it to individual needs, information about who accepts vs. declines follow-up is needed. Thus, the aim of this study was to explore participation in systematic CV risk assessment among patients with RA. Furthermore, to explore differences between patients with low vs. high risk, and between patients with high risk who accept vs. decline follow-up.MethodsData from 2,222 outpatients with RA in the period 2011-2021 were retrieved, and of these 1,522 were under 75 years and eligible to be invited. To assess the 10-year risk for CV death, the modified Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (mSCORE), derived by multiplying the SCORE by 1.5, was used. Logistic regression analyses were used to explore differences in CV risk factors (triglycerides, HbA1c, lifestyle factors) and measures of disease impact (pain, fatigue, patient global assessment, HAQ, EQ-5D-5L) between patients with low vs. high risk. Differences between high risk patients who accepted vs. declined follow-up were analysed using Wilcoxon rank sum test and chi-squared test for groups.ResultsOne thousand one hundred forty-nine received a CV screening invitation and 91 declined participation. Patients with high risk had significantly longer disease duration (OR; 95 CI) (1.017; 1.002-1.032), higher levels of triglycerides (1.834; 1.475-2.280), HbA1C (1.046; 1.020-1.070), pain (1.006; 1.001-1.012), and HAQ-score (1.305; 1.057-1.612) compared to patients with low risk and they more often declined follow-up (43% vs. 28%, p < 0.001). Those who declined a follow-up invitation were older (p = 0.016) and had shorter disease duration (p = 0.006) compared to those who accepted follow-up.ConclusionA first CV screening consultation was accepted by most patients with RA, while only every other patient with high to very high CV risk adhered to a follow-up screening consultation. Neither measures of disease impact nor lifestyle factors were associated with adherence. Further studies are needed to explore the patients' motivation, barriers and facilitators for adherence or non-adherence to a follow-up consultation.

Association between cardiovascular risk profile and impaired microvascular function in a Swedish middle-aged cohort (the SCAPIS study)

Abstract Aims The aim was to investigate the relationship between microvascular function, cardiovascular risk profile, and subclinical atherosclerotic burden. Methods and results The study enrolled 3809 individuals, 50–65 years old, participating in the population-based observational cross-sectional Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study. Microvascular function was assessed in forearm skin using an arterial occlusion and release protocol determining peak blood oxygen saturation (OxyP). Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the updated Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE2; 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events]. The OxyP was compared with coronary artery calcification score (CACS) and to plaques in the carotid arteries. Individuals with OxyP values in the lowest quartile (Q1; impaired microvascular function) had a mean SCORE2 of 5.8% compared with 3.8% in those with the highest values of OxyP (Q4), a relative risk increase of 53%. The risk of having a SCORE2 &amp;gt; 10% was five times higher for those in Q1 (odds ratio: 4.96, 95% confidence interval: 2.76–8.93) vs. Q4 when adjusting for body mass index and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. The OxyP was lower in individuals with CACS &amp;gt; 0 and in those with both carotid plaques and CACS &amp;gt; 0, compared with individuals without subclinical atherosclerotic burdens (87.5 ± 5.6% and 86.9 ± 6.0%, vs. 88.6 ± 5.8%, P &amp;lt; 0.01). Conclusion In a population without CVD or diabetes mellitus, impaired microvascular function is associated with cardiovascular risk profiles such as higher SCORE2 risk and CACS. We suggest that OxyP may serve as a microcirculatory functional marker of subclinical atherosclerosis and CVD risk that is not detected by structural assessments.

Comparison of prediction models for cardiovascular and mortality risk in people with type 2 diabetes: An external validation in 23 685 adults included in the UK Biobank.

To validate cardiovascular risk prediction models for individuals with diabetes using the UK Biobank in order to assess their applicability. We externally validated 19 cardiovascular risk scores from seven risk prediction models (Chang et al., Framingham, University of Hong Kong-Singapore [HKU-SG], Li et al, RECODe [risk equations for complications of type 2 diabetes], SCORE [Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation] and the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 [UKPDS OM2]), identified from systematic reviews, using UK Biobank data from 2006 to 2021 (n = 23 685; participant age 40-71 years, 63.5% male). We evaluated performance by assessing the discrimination and calibration of the models for the endpoints of mortality, cardiovascular mortality, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease. Over a total of 269 430 person-years of follow-up (median 11.89 years), the models showed low-to-moderate discrimination performance on external validation (concordance indices [c-indices] 0.50-0.71). Most models had low calibration with overprediction of the observed risk. RECODe outperformed other models across four comparable endpoints for discrimination: all-cause mortality (c-index 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.69), congestive heart failure (c-index 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.72), myocardial infarction (c-index 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.68); and stroke (c-index 0.65, 95% CI 0.62-0.68), and for calibration (except for all-cause mortality). The UKPDS OM2 had comparable performance to RECODe for all-cause mortality (c-index 0.67, 95% CI 0.66-0.69) and cardiovascular mortality (c-index 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.73), but worse performance for other outcomes. The models performed better for younger participants and somewhat better for non-White ethnicities. Models developed from non-Western datasets showed worse performance in our UK-based validation set. The RECODe model led to better risk estimations in this predominantly White European population. Further validation is needed in non-Western populations to assess generalizability to other populations.

Prognostic impact of carotid plaque imaging using total plaque area added to SCORE2 in middle-aged subjects: the ARteris Cardiovascular Outcome (ARCO) cohort study.

Many cardiovascular events occur in seemingly healthy individuals.We set out to assess the predictive value of atherosclerosis imaging in combination with cardiovascular risk calculators in subjects aged 40-65 years. We compared PROCAM (PROspective CArdiovascular Münster study), SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) and SCORE2 with carotid ultrasound (total plaque area, TPA) in subjects without cardiovascular disease. In this prospective cohort study, follow-up was obtained by phone or mail from patients; or from clinical records, if needed. In 2842 subjects (mean age 50±8 years; 38% women), cardiovascular events occurred in 154 (5.4%) of them over an mean follow-up period of 5.9 (range 1-12) years, specifically: 41 cases of AMI (myocardial infarction), 16 strokes, 21 CABG (coronary artery bypass grafting), 41 PTCA (percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty) and 35 CAD (coronary artery disease). Mean PROCAM risk was 5±6%, mean SCORE risk was 1.3±1.6% and mean SCORE2 risk was 5±3%. Both for the primary outcome (major adverse cardiovascular events, MACEs, i.e. AMI + strokes) and the secondary outcome (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, ASCVD, i.e. MACEs + CABG + CAD + PTCA), hazards increased significantly for TPA tertiles and SCORE2 post-test risk between 6.7 to 12.8 after adjustment for risk factors (age, smoke, sex, systolic blood pressure, lipids, medication) and after adjustment for results from PROCAM, SCORE and SCORE2. Model performance was statistically improved regarding model fit in all models using TPA. Net reclassification improvement for SCORE2 with TPA post-test risk increased significantly by 24% for MACEs (p = 0.01) and 39% for ASCVD (p <0.0001). Integration of TPA post-test risk into SCORE2 adds prognostic information, supporting the use of carotid ultrasound when assessing ASCVD risk in subjects aged 40-65 years.

Predictive improvement of adding coronary calcium score and a genetic risk score to a traditional risk model for cardiovascular event prediction.

Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and polygenic risk score have been used as novel markers to predict cardiovascular (CV) events of asymptomatic individuals compared with traditional scores. No previous studies have directly compared the additive capacity of these two markers relative to conventional scores. The aim of the study was to evaluate the change in CV risk prediction ability when CACS, genetic risk score (GRS), or both are added to Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2). In a prospective, observational population-based study, 1002 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53.1 ± 6.8 years, 73.8% male), free of clinical coronary disease and diabetes, were selected from GENEMACOR-study controls. SCORE2, CACS, and GRS were estimated to evaluate CV events' predictive and discriminative ability through Harrell's C-statistics. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination index were used to reclassify the population. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) analysis assessed the variables independently associated with CV events. C-statistic demonstrated that the discriminative value for CV event occurrence was 0.608 for SCORE2, increasing to 0.749 (P = 0.001) when CACS was added, and improved to 0.802 (P = 0.0008) with GRS, showing a better discriminative capacity for CV events. Continuous NRI reclassified >70% of the population. Cox proportional analysis showed that the highest categories of SCORE2, CACS, and GRS remained in the equation with an HR of 2.9 (P = 0.003), 5.0 (P < 0.0001), and 3.2 (P = 0.003), respectively, when compared with the lowest categories. In our population, CACS added to SCORE2 had better ability than GRS in CV event risk prediction, discrimination, and reclassification. However, adding the three scores can become clinically relevant, especially in intermediate-risk persons.

Validation of SCORE2 on a sample from the Russian population and adaptation for the very high cardiovascular disease risk region.

SCORE2 (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2) is a risk assessment scale for cardiovascular events, presented in 2021 by the European Society of Cardiology. Both for training and validation of the SCORE2 model, representative samples from the Russian population were not used. Therefore, we aimed to validate SCORE2 on a such sample. For this purpose, we used a sample from the ESSE-RF epidemiological study consisting of 7251 participants aged 40-69 years without history of CVDs. We performed the validation by comparing SCORE2 risk estimates for ESSE-RF participants with the observed incidence of cardiovascular events in the study, adjusted for event information losses. The validation demonstrated that SCORE2 risk estimates were accurate for Russian men and inaccurate for Russian women. Together with the quantitative assessment of risk, SCORE2 offers its interpretation in terms of 10-year CVD risk group: low-moderate, high, and very high. For Russian men we considered the original interpretation of the SCORE2 estimates to be questionable because almost none of the men would be categorized as having "low-to-moderate" 10-year CVD risk. This problem would be typical for all countries of the very high CVD risk region. Therefore, we proposed a new interpretation of the SCORE2 risk estimates for men from the very high risk region. According to the proposed interpretation, the fraction of men in ESSE-RF in "low-to-moderate" 10-year CVD risk increased from 2% to 18% and the fraction of men in "very high" CVD risk decreased from 63% to 20% as compared to the original interpretation. The proposed interpretation would allow a more personalized approach to CVD treatment and optimize the burden on primary healthcare in the very high risk region countries.

Dietary Patterns and Cardiovascular Risk: Are the Mediterranean Diet, the Heart-Healthy Diet, and Phytochemicals Associated with Lower Cardiovascular Risks?

Dietary pattern may be one of the determinants of cardiovascular health. This study aimed to examine the relationship between a heart-healthy diet, the phytochemical content of a diet, and Mediterranean diet and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. This study was conducted with healthy volunteers (n=1446) from Turkey between August 2022 and September 2022. As risk assessment systems to determine CVD risks, SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation) and ASCVD (Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease) were used. We utilized MEDFICTS (Meats, Eggs, Dairy, Fried foods, Fat in Baked Goods, Convenience Foods, Fats Added at the Table, and Snacks) to establish the suitability of the current diet for heart health, and MEDAS (Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener) to examine the Mediterranean diet characteristics of the current diet. The phytochemical content of the diet was determined using the Phytochemical Index method developed by McCarty. The lifetime and 10-year risk scores of SCORE and ASCVD were positively correlated with the MEDFICTS score (r=0.12, P<0.001; r=0.06, P=0.020; r=0.10, P=0.001, respectively). Mediterranean diet characteristics were correlated with lower CVD risk as per the SCORE categories (r=-0.07, P=0.009). A one-unit increase in MEDFICTS scores increased high-to-very high CVD risk and 10-year moderate-to-high CVD risk by 1.01 times, while a one-unit increase in the Mediterranean diet score decreased high-to-very high CVD risk and 10-year moderate-to-high CVD risk by 0.91 times and 0.95 times, respectively. In addition, high values of body weight, body mass index, waist circumference, waist-height ratio, and neck circumference were associated with higher CVD risk (P<0.001). Adopting a Mediterranean diet and a heart-healthy diet may be a good strategy to reduce CVD risks.

Guideline-Based Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Delivered by an mHealth App: Development Study.

Identifying high-risk individuals is crucial for preventing cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Currently, risk assessment is mostly performed by physicians. Mobile health apps could help decouple the determination of risk from medical resources by allowing unrestricted self-assessment. The respective test results need to be interpretable for laypersons. Together with a patient organization, we aimed to design a digital risk calculator that allows people to individually assess and optimize their CVD risk. The risk calculator was integrated into the mobile health app HerzFit, which provides the respective background information. To cover a broad spectrum of individuals for both primary and secondary prevention, we integrated the respective scores (Framingham 10-year CVD, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 in Older Persons, and Secondary Manifestations Of Arterial Disease) into a single risk calculator that was recalibrated for the German population. In primary prevention, an individual's heart age is estimated, which gives the user an easy-to-understand metric for assessing cardiac health. For secondary prevention, the risk of recurrence was assessed. In addition, a comparison of expected to mean and optimal risk levels was determined. The risk calculator is available free of charge. Data safety is ensured by processing the data locally on the users' smartphones. Offering a risk calculator to the general population requires the use of multiple instruments, as each provides only a limited spectrum in terms of age and risk distribution. The integration of 4 internationally recommended scores allows risk calculation in individuals aged 30 to 90 years with and without CVD. Such integration requires recalibration and harmonization to provide consistent and plausible estimates. In the first 14 months after the launch, the HerzFit calculator was downloaded more than 96,000 times, indicating great demand. Public information campaigns proved effective in publicizing the risk calculator and contributed significantly to download numbers. The HerzFit calculator provides CVD risk assessment for the general population. The public demonstrated great demand for such a risk calculator as it was downloaded up to 10,000 times per month, depending on campaigns creating awareness for the instrument.