Earth System Research Articles

Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia

Abstract Extratropical storms, particularly explosive storms or “weather bombs” with exceptionally high deepening rates, present substantial risks and are susceptible to climate change. Individual storms may exhibit a complex and hardly detectable response to human-driven climate change because of the atmosphere’s chaotic nature and variability at the regional level. It is thus essential to understand changes in specific storms for building local resilience and advancing our overall comprehension of storm trends. To address this challenge, this study compares analogs—storms with a similar backward track until making landfall—in two climates of three explosive storms impacting different European locations: Alex (October 2020), Eunice (January 2022), and Xynthia (February 2010). We use a large ensemble dataset of 105 members from the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). These analogs are identified in two periods: the present-day climate (1991–2001) and a future climate scenario characterized by high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), 2091–2101]. We evaluate future changes in the frequency of occurrence of the storms and intensity, as well as in meteorological hazards and the underlying dynamics. For all storms, our analysis reveals an increase in precipitation and wind severity over land associated with the explosive analogs in the future climate. These findings underscore the potential consequences of explosive storms modified by climate change and their subsequent hazards in various regions of Europe, offering evidence that can be used to prepare and enhance adaptation processes. Significance Statement This study investigates the impact of climate change on explosive storms, or weather bombs, and their potential consequences for European regions. We project future scenarios of three specific storms, Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia, using a state-of-the-art climate model. Our findings reveal an increase in precipitation and wind over land associated with these storms, emphasizing the heightened risks associated with climate change. The significance lies in understanding the local implications of explosive storms, aiding in the development of resilient strategies and adaptation measures.

Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2

Abstract The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

The Shifting Distribution of Arctic Daily Temperatures Under Global Warming

AbstractWe examine daily surface air temperatures (SAT) in the Arctic under global warming, synthesizing changes in mean temperature, variability, seasonality, and extremes based on five Earth system model large ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our analysis shows that the distribution of daily Arctic SAT changes substantially, with Arctic mean temperatures being distinguishable from pre‐industrial levels on 84% and 97% of days at 1.5 and 2°C of global warming, respectively, and on virtually every day at 3°C of global warming. This shift is primarily due to the rapid rise in average temperature resulting from Arctic amplification and is exacerbated by a decrease in the variability of daily Arctic SAT of approximately 8.5% per degree of global warming. The changes in mean temperature and variability are more pronounced in the cold seasons than in summer, resulting in a weakened and shifted seasonal cycle of Arctic SAT. Moreover, the intensity and frequency of warm and cold extreme events change to varying degrees. The hottest days warm slightly more, while the coldest days warm 4–5 times more than the global average temperature, making extreme cold events rare. Changes in local SAT vary regionally across the Arctic and are most significant in areas of sea‐ice loss. Our findings underscore the Arctic's amplified sensitivity to global warming and emphasize the urgent need to limit global warming to mitigate impacts on human and natural systems.

Mechanisms Regulating Coccolithophore Dynamics in the Great Calcite Belt in the Southern Ocean in the Community Earth System Model

Mechanisms Regulating Coccolithophore Dynamics in the Great Calcite Belt in the Southern Ocean in the Community Earth System Model

Global Distributions of Reactive Iron and Aluminum Influence the Spatial Variation of Soil Organic Carbon.

Organic carbon persistence in soils is predominantly controlled by physical accessibility rather than by its biochemical recalcitrance. Understanding the regulation of soil iron (Fe) and aluminum (Al) (hydr)oxides, playing a dominant role in mineral protection, on soil organic carbon (SOC) would increase the reliable projections of the feedback of terrestrial ecosystems to global warming. Here, we conducted a continental-scale survey in China (341 sites) and a global synthesis (6786 observations) to reveal the global distributions of Fe/Al (hydr)oxides and their effects on SOC storage in terrestrial ecosystems. We generated the first global maps of soil Fe/Al (hydr)oxides with high accuracy (with R2 more than 0.74). The variance decomposition analysis showed that Fe/Al (hydr)oxides explained the most proportion of variance for topsoil (0-30 cm) and subsoil (30-100 cm) SOC. Therefore, soil Fe/Al (hydr)oxides play a stronger role in explaining the spatial variation of SOC than well-studied climate, edaphic, vegetated, and soil depth factors in both topsoil and subsoil. Collectively, the planetary-scale significance of soil Fe/Al (hydr)oxides for SOC highlights that soil Fe/Al (hydr)oxides should be incorporated into Earth System Models to reduce the uncertainty in predicting SOC dynamics.

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Acclimation of Photosynthesis to CO2 Increases Ecosystem Carbon Storage due to Leaf Nitrogen Savings.

Photosynthesis is the largest flux of carbon between the atmosphere and Earth's surface and is driven by enzymes that require nitrogen, namely, ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate (RuBisCO). Thus, photosynthesis is a key link between the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle, and the representation of this link is critical for coupled carbon-nitrogen land surface models. Models and observations suggest that soil nitrogen availability can limit plant productivity increases under elevated CO2. Plants acclimate to elevated CO2 by downregulating RuBisCO and thus nitrogen in leaves, but this acclimation response is not currently included in land surface models. Acclimation of photosynthesis to CO2 can be simulated by the photosynthetic optimality theory in a way that matches observations. Here, we incorporated this theory into the land surface component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM). We simulated land surface carbon and nitrogen processes under future elevated CO2 conditions to 2100 using the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. Our simulations showed that when photosynthetic acclimation is considered, photosynthesis increases under future conditions, but maximum RuBisCO carboxylation and thus photosynthetic nitrogen demand decline. We analyzed two simulations that differed as to whether the saved nitrogen could be used in other parts of the plant. The allocation of saved leaf nitrogen to other parts of the plant led to (1) a direct alleviation of plant nitrogen limitation through reduced leaf nitrogen requirements and (2) an indirect reduction in plant nitrogen limitation through an enhancement of root growth that led to increased plant nitrogen uptake. As a result, reallocation of saved leaf nitrogen increased ecosystem carbon stocks by 50.3% in 2100 as compared to a simulation without reallocation of saved leaf nitrogen. These results suggest that land surface models may overestimate future ecosystem nitrogen limitation if they do not incorporate leaf nitrogen savings resulting from photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2.

Acceleration of the Hydrological Cycle under Global Warming for the Poyang Lake Basin in Southeast China: An Age-Weighted Regional Water Tagging Approach

Abstract Global warming is assumed to accelerate the global water cycle. However, quantification of the acceleration and regional analyses remain open. Accordingly, in this study, we address the fundamental hydrological question: Is the water cycle regionally accelerating/decelerating under global warming? For our investigation, we have implemented the age-weighted regional water tagging approach into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, namely, WRF-age, to follow the atmospheric water pathways and to derive atmospheric water residence times defined as the age of tagged water since its source. We apply a three-dimensional online budget analysis of the total, tagged, and aged atmospheric water into WRF-age to provide a prognostic equation of the atmospheric water residence times and to derive atmospheric water transit times defined as the age of tagged water since its source originating from a particular physical or dynamical process. The newly developed, physics-based WRF-age model is used to regionally downscale the reanalysis of ERA-Interim and the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario exemplarily for an East Asian monsoon region, i.e., the Poyang Lake basin (the tagged water source area), for historical (1980–89) and future (2040–49) times. In the warmer (+1.9°C for temperature and +2% for evaporation) and drier (−21% for precipitation) future, the residence time for the tagged water vapor will regionally decrease by 1.8 h (from 14.3 h) due to enhanced local evaporation contributions, but the transit time for the tagged precipitation will increase by 1.8 h (from 12.9 h) partly due to slower fallout of precipitating moisture components. Significance Statement Global warming is assumed to accelerate the global water cycle. However, quantification of the acceleration and regional analyses remain open. This study presents the newly developed WRF-age model that allows us to follow the atmospheric water pathways, to derive atmospheric water residence times and atmospheric water transit times. We exemplarily show for an East Asian monsoon region that global warming leads to regionally decreased residence time for the tagged water vapor in the atmosphere due to enhanced local contributions, but increased transit time for the tagged precipitation over the land surface that is partly attributed to slower fallout of precipitating moisture components in the atmosphere. These findings reveal the physical mechanisms behind dry-getting-drier at regional scales.

FROT: A Framework to comprehensively describe radiative contributions to temperature responses

Abstract Different human activities and associated emissions of CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcing agents and feedbacks determine the final state of Earth’s climate. To understand and explain contributions to global temperature changes, many emission-based metrics have been employed, such as CO2-equivalent or -forcing equivalent. None of these metrics, however, include dynamic responses from Earth system feedbacks in terms of carbon and heat redistribution, known to play an increasingly important role in ambitious mitigation scenarios. Here we introduce a framework that allows for an assessment of such feedbacks in addition to CO2, non-CO2 anthropogenic forcing and natural external variability contributions. FROT (Framework for Radiative cOntributions to Temperature response) allows for an assessment of components of direct radiative impact to the system (climate forcing), as well as Earth system feedbacks concerning heat and carbon. The framework is versatile in terms of applications and allows for exploring individual components contributions to, for example, temperature stabilisation simulations, or comparisons in different models and scenarios, as it can reasonably explain their simulated temperature variability. Here, we apply FROT to both an intermediate complexity and a fully coupled Earth system model, as we simulate highly ambitious mitigation scenarios. Comparing temperature stabilisation scenarios, we can show that both net-zero CO2 emissions and small amounts of positive CO2 emissions could lead to a stable global temperature trajectory. Our assessment reveals that the effects of non-CO2 climate forcings, especially the development of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere, and the dynamics of the carbon cycle, play a pivotal role in the final level of warming and in enabling a temperature stabilisation. Under highly ambitious climate mitigation scenarios it becomes crucial to include Earth system feedbacks, specifically ocean heat uptake, to understand interannual to decadal temperature development, since previously secondary processes now become increasingly dominant. Our framework offers the opportunity to do so.

Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5

Abstract. Under the Paris Agreement, signatory nations aim to keep global warming well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5 °C. This implicitly requires achieving net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas emissions to ensure long-term global temperature stabilisation or reduction. Despite this requirement, there have been few analyses of stabilised climates, and there is a lack of model experiments to address our need for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. Here, we describe a new set of experiments using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Earth system model (ACCESS-ESM-1.5) that enables the analysis of climate evolution under net-zero emissions, and we present initial results. Seven 1000-year-long simulations were run with global temperatures stabilising at levels in line with the Paris Agreement and at a range of higher global warming levels (GWLs). We provide an overview of the experimental design and use these simulations to demonstrate the consequences of delayed attainment of global net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. We show that there are substantial differences between transient and stabilising climate states and differences in stabilisation between GWLs. As the climate stabilises under net-zero emissions, we identify significant and robust changes in temperature and precipitation patterns including continued Southern Ocean warming and changes in regional precipitation trends. Changes under net-zero emissions differ greatly between regions, including contrasting trajectories of sea ice extent between the Arctic and Antarctic. We also examine the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and find evidence of reduced amplitude and frequency of ENSO events under climate stabilisation relative to projections under transient warming. An analysis at specific GWLs shows that significant regional changes continue for centuries after emission cessation and that these changes are stronger at higher GWLs. Our findings suggest substantial long-term climate changes are possible even under net-zero emission pathways. These simulations are available for use in the community and will hopefully motivate further experiments and analyses based on other Earth system models.

Enhancing 3D planetary atmosphere simulations with a surrogate radiative transfer model

Abstract This work introduces an approach to enhancing the computational efficiency of 3D atmospheric simulations by integrating a machine-learned surrogate model into the OASIS global circulation model (GCM). Traditional GCMs, which are based on repeatedly numerically integrating physical equations governing atmospheric processes across a series of time-steps, are time-intensive, leading to compromises in spatial and temporal resolution of simulations. This research improves upon this limitation, enabling higher resolution simulations within practical timeframes. Speeding up 3D simulations holds significant implications in multiple domains. Firstly, it facilitates the integration of 3D models into exoplanet inference pipelines, allowing for robust characterisation of exoplanets from a previously unseen wealth of data anticipated from JWST and post-JWST instruments. Secondly, acceleration of 3D models will enable higher resolution atmospheric simulations of Earth and Solar System planets, enabling more detailed insights into their atmospheric physics and chemistry. Our method replaces the radiative transfer module in OASIS with a recurrent neural network-based model trained on simulation inputs and outputs. Radiative transfer is typically one of the slowest components of a GCM, thus providing the largest scope for overall model speed-up. The surrogate model was trained and tested on the specific test case of the Venusian atmosphere, to benchmark the utility of this approach in the case of non-terrestrial atmospheres. This approach yields promising results, with the surrogate-integrated GCM demonstrating above 99.0% accuracy and 147 factor GPU speed-up of the entire simulation compared to using the matched original GCM under Venus-like conditions.

Enhanced soil moisture–temperature coupling could exacerbate drought under net-negative emissions

Our understanding of drought evolution and land-atmosphere interactions under climate mitigation scenarios remains limited. Here, we analyzed future drought under net-zero and net-negative emission scenarios using the Community Earth System Model version 2, particularly focusing on three atmospheric CO2 states: linearly increases, decreases, and a return to the initial state. Interestingly, results revealed that net-zero emissions are more effective for drought mitigation than net-negative targets. Drying trends and drought characteristics — such as the duration, frequency, intensity, and area expansion are prominently increased under net-negative emissions due to higher potential evapotranspiration (PET). This is because the soil moisture and temperature couplings are stronger over drought regions and years, especially under net-negative forcing, with notable impacts in Central Africa and South Asia. Nevertheless, both target scenarios offer regional benefits, such as weakened dryness. This suggests that mitigating CO2 alone may not be sufficient to manage future droughts, highlighting the need for advanced water management strategies.

Rmacrostrat : An R package for accessing and retrieving data from the Macrostrat geological database

The geological record is a vast archive of information that provides the only empirical data about the evolution of the Earth. In recent years, concentrated efforts have been made to compile macrostratigraphic data into the online centralized database Macrostrat. Macrostrat is a global stratigraphic database containing information regarding surface and subsurface rock units and their respective ages, lithologies, geographic extents, and various other associated metadata. However, these raw data are currently directly accessible only through the Macrostrat application programming interface, which is a barrier to potential users that are less familiar with such services. This data accessibility hurdle currently prevents full capitalization of the value offered by Macrostrat, particularly its potential to improve understanding of the geological and biological evolution of the Earth. Here, we introduce rmacrostrat, an R package that interfaces with the Macrostrat database to access and retrieve a variety of geological, paleontological, and economic data directly into the R programming environment. In this article, we provide details about how the package can be installed, its implementation, and potential use cases. For the latter, we showcase how rmacrostrat can be used to visualize regional stratigraphic columns, produce regional geologic outcrop maps, and investigate temporal trends in macrostratigraphic units. We hope that this package will make geological data more readily accessible and in turn will facilitate new research utilizing Earth system data.

The Global Threat from the Irreversible Accumulation of Trifluoroacetic Acid (TFA).

Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) is a persistent and mobile substance that has been increasing in concentration within diverse environmental media, including rain, soils, human serum, plants, plant-based foods, and drinking water. Currently, TFA concentrations are orders of magnitude higher than those of other per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). This accumulation is due to many PFAS having TFA as a transformation product, including several fluorinated gases (F-gases), pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and industrial chemicals, in addition to direct release of industrially produced TFA. Due to TFA's extreme persistence and ongoing emissions, concentrations are increasing irreversibly. What remains less clear are the thresholds where irreversible effects on local or global scales occur. There are indications from mammalian toxicity studies that TFA is toxic to reproduction and that it exhibits liver toxicity. Ecotoxicity data are scarce, with most data being for aquatic systems; fewer data are available for terrestrial plants, where TFA bioaccumulates most readily. Collectively, these trends imply that TFA meets the criteria of a planetary boundary threat for novel entities because of increasing planetary-scale exposure, where potential irreversible disruptive impacts on vital earth system processes could occur. The rational response to this is to instigate binding actions to reduce the emissions of TFA and its many precursors.

Temperature and precipitation projection in the lower Mahanadi Basin through machine learning methods

This study examined climate change dynamics in the lower Mahanadi River basin by integrating observed and climate model data. Historical precipitation and temperature data (1979–2020) from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and monthly climate model data from the CORDEX-SMHI-MIROC model via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) are utilized. Four machine learning models (Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM RNN, and SARIMAX) are applied to forecast precipitation, Tmax, and Tmin, and are compared across different representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) scenarios. Diverse trajectories emerge, highlighting potential shifts in precipitation and temperature dynamics over near, mid, and far-term intervals. Fbprophet and SARIMAX are identified as superior models through performance evaluation metrics (R2, RMSE, r, P-bias, and NSE). Spatial analysis using ArcGIS and IDW interpolation reveals spatial variations in climate projections, aiding in visualizing future climate trends within the Mahanadi Basin. This study acknowledges limitations such as historical data uncertainties, socio-economic indicators, and unpredictable RCP trajectories, introducing a novel method to integrate machine learning with climate model data for assessing reliability. It also explores anticipated shifts in monthly precipitation and temperature patterns, providing insights into future climate variations.

Revealing the adaptation mechanism of different color morphs of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus to light intensities from the perspective of metabolomics

Global warming has multi-dimensional and complex impacts on the Earth's system, among which changes in light intensities cannot be overlooked. Sea cucumbers are a marine biological resource with significant economic and ecological value. Their presence and activity help maintain the balance and stability of marine ecosystems. The variation in light intensities have important ecological effects on sea cucumbers. Light intensities can alter the synthesis and degradation of metabolic substances within the bodies of Apostichopus japonicus by changing their body color. Their changes affect the production of microorganisms in the environment, thereby achieving the goal of bioremediation. This study investigated metabolic variations in green, purple, and white sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus under different light conditions (0 lx and 910 lx) with a 12-h light and 12-h dark photoperiod. The findings indicated that the sea cucumbers displayed more diverse metabolic alterations under 910 lx illumination compared to 0 lx. Specifically, these color morphs primarily responded to changes in light intensities through “tryptophan metabolism” and “biosynthesis of steroid hormones”. Additionally, high light intensities environment exacerbated the consumption of fatty acids by sea cucumbers. Different color morphs of sea cucumbers have differences in key metabolites in response to changes in light intensities. Green and white sea cucumbers primarily adapt to environment through phospholipids, while purple sea cucumbers mainly utilize fatty acids. These results enhance our comprehension of how sea cucumbers adapt ecologically to varying light intensities, and they offer valuable insights for systematically uncovering the regulatory processes that marine animals employ in response to environmental changes.

Projected Changes of the Warm Arctic‐Cold North American Pattern

AbstractThe Warm Arctic‐Cold North American (WACNA) pattern features opposing surface temperature anomalies, with centers over the Chukchi‐Bering Seas (CBS) and the North American Great Plains. The pattern is mainly driven by meridional heat transport and damped by the generation of available potential energy through diabatic heating. The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM5, part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), reasonably reproduces this pattern and its formation mechanisms. Future projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 8.5 (SSP5‐8.5) suggest a significant weakening of WACNA with global warming. Notable changes in pattern intensity and spatial structure are anticipated, particularly a decrease in intensity over the CBS. WACNA changes are also found in 31 CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble simulations. These changes are attributed to Arctic amplification associated with global warming, which diminishes the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient and consequently reduces meridional heat transport, particularly over the CBS region.

(Dis)entangling the ontopolitics of ecological theorizing for critical communication

ABSTRACT Amidst the Anthropocene, the contentious term given to our planetary epoch defined by human domination over earth systems, this essay will offer a series of explorations that illustrate the potentialities between critical communication theorizing and ecological thought. To help articulate this convergence, I organize my essay around the thematic figuration of “threads” to constellate an ongoing effort by scholars in and beyond the communication discipline who seek to conjure the theoretical tools necessary to register the complexity of power’s contemporary mode of expression. I navigate this threaded figuration in three ways. First, I demonstrate how the ecosophical model outlined in Félix Guattari’s political manifesto The Three Ecologies offers ground for contextualizing mutations of power in the Anthropocene while warranting a theoretical collaboration between ecosophy and critical communication in the present. Second, I apply Guattari’s ecosophical model to critical rhetoric, advancing a theoretical heuristic resonant with border rhetorics that may help critical communication scholars ontopolitically figure the power formations of our time. Third, I attempt to synthesize three “problematic threads” organizing contemporary discourses of critical and ecological theorizing.

What is planetary justice?

ABSTRACT To reconsider the meaning of justice in a planetary frame is both a necessity in our time of multiple entangled crises and an endeavour that seeks convergence and synthesis where there might instead be irreconcilable differences. We invited scholars from diverse disciplinary backgrounds to share their perspectives on the scope, scale, and purpose of planetary justice and received a variety of responses – all highly worthwhile in their own right. What we can conclude from this new milestone in the literature on planetary justice is that people emphasize different justice concerns and operate with different ontologies. Are the Earth system and the pluriverse opposing frameworks or somehow reconcilable? What concerns should be prioritized is also contested. Can there be a decolonial, multispecies, Earth systemic, justice that begins with the self and where matter is included in our sphere of justice? However, one agreement seems to be that planetary justice is inevitably ecosocial justice.

Hydrological cycle amplification imposes spatial patterns on the climate change response of ocean pH and carbonate chemistry

Abstract. ​​​​​​​Ocean CO2 uptake and acidification in response to human activities are driven primarily by the rise in atmospheric CO2 but are also modulated by climate change. Existing work suggests that this “climate effect” influences the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon and acidification via the global increase in ocean temperature, although some regional responses have been attributed to changes in circulation or biological activity. Here, we investigate spatial patterns in the climate effect on surface ocean acidification (and the closely related carbonate chemistry) in an Earth system model under a rapid CO2-increase scenario and identify a different driving process. We show that the amplification of the hydrological cycle, a robustly simulated feature of climate change, is largely responsible for the spatial patterns in this climate effect at the sea surface. This “hydrological effect” can be understood as a subset of the total climate effect, which includes warming, hydrological cycle amplification, circulation, and biological changes. We demonstrate that it acts through two primary mechanisms: (i) directly diluting or concentrating dissolved ions by adding or removing freshwater and (ii) altering the sea surface temperature, which influences the solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and acidity of seawater. The hydrological effect opposes acidification in salinifying regions, most notably the subtropical Atlantic, and enhances acidification in freshening regions such as the western Pacific. Its single strongest effect is to dilute the negative ions that buffer the dissolution of CO2, quantified as alkalinity. The local changes in alkalinity, DIC, and pH linked to the pattern of hydrological cycle amplification are as strong as the (largely uniform) changes due to warming, explaining the weak increase in pH and DIC seen in the climate effect in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.