Synoptic-scale Weather Systems Research Articles

Aerosol transport and associated boundary layer thermodynamics under contrasting synoptic conditions over a semiarid site.

Understanding the kinematics of aerosol horizontal transport and vertical mixing near the surface, within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), and in the overlying free troposphere (FT) is critical for various applications, including air quality and weather forecasting, aviation, road safety, and dispersion modeling. Empirical evidence of aerosol mixing processes within the ABL during synoptic-scale events over arid and semiarid regions (i.e., drylands) remains sparse. We explored how synoptic-scale weather systems impact aerosol mixing processes within the daytime ABL over a site located in a dryland. We used ground-based Doppler lidar measurements collected during three events: a cold-front passage, a fair-weather day, and a dryline passage over Lubbock, Texas. The measurements of backscatter and vertical velocity fields were obtained with temporal and vertical resolutions of 1s and 60m, respectively. Here, we documented observations of aerosol transport and mixing within the ABL and found that frontal passages are crucial for understanding ABL features and aerosol mixing processes. For example, our findings suggest that during a dryline passage yielding a water vapor mixing ratio drop of 10g kg-1, the boundary layer characteristics transition from being shallow and stratified throughout a stable, pre-dryline ABL aerosol regime (300m deep) to a deep and well-mixed structure within the post-dryline ABL (2200m deep) confirming a higher ABL depth growth rate (∼300mh-1) than under quiescent conditions (∼125mh-1). The results for the frontal case reported aerosol mixing via frontal lifting to an altitude of 1250m from the ground due to strong updrafts (>7ms-1). Additionally, Doppler lidar measurements helped to characterize the aerosol mixing and transport processes in dry regions under different weather conditions which yielded close correspondence with the observed variability in near-surface particulate matter (i.e., PM2.5) concentrations (e.g., increase in PM2.5 from 9μgm-3 to 27μgm-3 due to a cold front passage). The aerosol transport, along with the derived properties of the mean up- and downdraft observations and variance-based (both vertical velocity and aerosol backscatter) turbulence profiling helped explain how frontal airmass exchanges impact aerosol loading near the surface. The results obtained emphasize the need to consider the impact of synoptic-scale events over drylands in both observational and atmospheric modeling studies.

Alterations of the Physical and Biochemical Structure in the Izmit Bay Following the Blockage Events at the Istanbul Strait

In December 2021 and March 2022, synoptic-scale weather systems triggered blockages in the Istanbul Strait, resulting in a notable alteration of the water dynamics of the upper layer of the northeastern Marmara Sea. The blockages resulted in the disruption of water mass exchanges between İzmit Bay and the eastern Marmara basin, driven by intensified hydrodynamic forces and severe wind conditions. The blockage of the two-layer flow in the strait led to an intensification of upper layer dynamics, resulting in an elevation of nutrient levels through mixing with nutrient-rich lower waters and/or the redistribution of nutrient fluxes via an enhanced jet current. This study demonstrates the occurrence of rapid changes in the biochemical structure of İzmit Bay, as evidenced by ADCP measurements and near-weekly temperature and salinity profiles. The analyses demonstrate significant shifts in flow dynamics, with salinity serving as an indicator of enhanced mixing. This mixing enabled the transport of nutrient-rich deep waters to the upper productive layer, thereby stimulating increased biological activity. The findings highlight that the altered dynamics resulted in a notable surge in nutrient concentrations and biochemical activity, potentially fostering the expansion of mucilage-forming species in İzmit Bay.

Interdecadal Variations in the Seasonal Cycle of Explosive Growth of Southern Hemisphere Storms with Impacts on Southern Australian Rainfall

Interdecadal variations, since the middle of the 20th century, in the seasonal cycle of Southern Hemisphere extratropical synoptic scale weather systems, are studied and related to associated anomalies in Southern Australian rainfall over south-west Western Australia (SWWA) and southeast Australia (SEA). A data-driven method is employed in which atmospheric fluctuations, specified from 6-hourly lower-tropospheric reanalysis data, are spectrally analysed in space and time to determine the statistics of the intensity and growth rates of growing and decaying eddies. Extratropical storms, blocking and north-west cloud band weather types are investigated in two frequency bands, with periods less than 4 days and between 4 and 8 days, and in three growth rate and three decay rate bins. Southern Australian rainfall variability is found to be most related to changes in explosive storms particularly in autumn and winter. During the first 10 years of the Australian Millennium Drought (AMD), from 1997 to 2006, dramatic changes in rainfall and storminess occurred. Rainfall declines ensued over SEA in all seasons, associated with corresponding reductions in the intensity of fast-growing storms with periods less than 4 days. These changes, compared with the 20-year timespans of 1949 to 1968 and 1975 to 1994, also took place for the longer duration of 1997 to 2016, apart from summer. Over SWWA, autumn and winter rainfall totals have decreased systematically with time for each of the 10-year and 20-year timespans analysed. Southern Australian rainfall variability is also found to be closely related to the local, hemispheric or global features of the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans that we characterise by indices. Local circulation indices of sea level pressure and 700 hPa zonal winds are good predictors of SWWA and SEA annual rainfall variability particularly in autumn and winter with vertical velocity generally less so. The new Subtropical Atmospheric Jet (SAJ) and the Southern Ocean Regional Dipole (SORD) indices are found to be the most skilful non-local predictors of cool season SWWA rainfall variability on annual and decadal timescales. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are the strongest non-local predictors of SEA annual rainfall variability from autumn through to late spring, while on the decadal timescale, different indices dominate for different 3-month periods.

Changes in Weather Systems during Anomalously Wet and Dry Years in Southeastern Australia

Abstract This study focuses on the rainfall-producing weather systems in the southern Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. These weather systems are divided into objects: cyclones, fronts, anticyclones, warm conveyor belt (WCB) inflows, WCB ascents, potential vorticity (PV) streamers, and cutoff lows. We investigate the changes in the frequency, amplitude, and relative position of these objects as the daily and seasonal rainfall change. Days on which the rainfall is heavy, especially in winter, are characterized by more PV streamers, cutoff lows, cyclones, fronts, and WCBs in the region. In contrast, dry days are characterized by more anticyclones over southeastern Australia in winter and summer. The effect of upper-level weather objects (PV streamers and cutoff lows) on lower-level objects, and their importance in producing rainfall, is quantified using the quasigeostrophic ω equation and separating the vertical motion into that induced by the upper and lower levels. On heavy rainfall days in winter, PV streamers and cutoff lows force strong upward motion in the lower troposphere, promoting cyclogenesis at lower levels, forcing ascent in the WCBs, and producing rain downstream of the southern MDB. Lower-level ascent forced by upper-level objects is important for the development of heavy rainfall in both seasons, although particularly in winter. Rainfall is attributed to individual objects. PV streamers and WCBs contribute most to the winter and summer rainfall, respectively. The difference in rainfall between anomalously wet and dry years can be explained in winter by the changes in the rainfall associated with PV streamers, whereas in summer it is mostly due to a reduction in the rainfall associated with WCBs. Significance Statement The aim of the present study is to better understand how synoptic-scale weather systems differ in southeastern Australia in dry and wet periods, by considering a wide range of weather systems. We found weather systems are more closely aligned in the vertical on heavy rainfall days, and the majority of rainfall in this region is associated with warm conveyor belts. These results point to warm conveyor belts being an important, but not well recognized, contributor to rainfall in this region. Future work may investigate the roles of the various modes of variability and climate change in modulating warm conveyor belts and hence the regional rainfall variability in Australia.

Dual-Polarimetric Radar Applications for Investigating Severe Thunderstorms in Northern Thailand during the Pre-Monsoon Season

Understanding the physical characteristics of severe pre-monsoon thunderstorms is crucial for mitigating the adverse impacts of natural disasters on people in tropical regions. On April 23, 2020, a severe storm affected the Chiang Khong District of the Chiang Rai Province in Northern Thailand, causing devastation to more than 500 houses with hail and strong winds. This study investigated the storm's physical characteristics using dual-polarimetric radar data from the Thai Meteo-rological Department (TMD). Using a combination of polarimetric radar variables, such as reflectivity (ZH), specific differential phase (KDP), differential reflectivity (ZDR), and copolar correlation coefficient (ρhv), fuzzy logic was utilized to classify the hydrometeor types. During the severe storm that affected the Chiang Khong District, hail and large raindrops were mixed in with the rain, according to the analysis. Two severe storms were observed in the unorganized mesoscale convective systems that were analyzed, with the second storm producing more intense effects due to the radar reflectivity shape of a bow echo that generated strong wind gusts. The Doppler radar data retrieved the wind field, indicating the convergence of intense local winds during the storm, which was consistent with the analysis results of synoptic-scale weather systems from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). In addition, a Hovmöller diagram revealed orographic enhancement of the convective cloud as the storm passed through mountainous regions prior to approaching the Chiang Khong District. The findings of this study can provide valuable information for TMD's near-real-time warning operation in order to minimize loss of life and property from future severe storms.

Saharan rainfall climatology and its relationship with surface cyclones

The Sahara is the largest and driest of the hot deserts on Earth, with regions where rainfall reaches the surface on average less than once a year. Water resources are scarce, and rainfall tends to occur sporadically in space and time. While rain is a precious resource in the Sahara, heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the desert have the potential to trigger flash floods on the barren soil. Because of the sparse rainfall monitoring network and the relatively poor performance of global models in representing rainfall over the Sahara, the analysis of Saharan HPEs has primarily relied on case studies. Therefore, general rainfall characteristics of Saharan HPEs are unexplored, and the prevailing weather conditions enabling such rainfall are unknown. To tackle this problem, we utilised satellite-derived precipitation estimations (IMERG) spanning 21 years (2000–2021) to identify ∼42⋅103 small (>103km2) to large (<106km2) HPEs in the Sahara and to extract their rainfall properties, and atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5) to examine the corresponding meteorological conditions in which they develop. Three case studies illustrate the relevance of cyclones for exceptionally large HPEs, including one in the driest region of the Sahara. Saharan HPEs occur, on average, every second day. They are more common in summer than in the other seasons, occur most frequently in the southern Sahara, and exhibit a clear convectively-driven diurnal cycle. Winter events have, on average, larger spatial extent, longer duration, and are characterised by larger areas exhibiting more extreme rainfall in terms of return periods. Autumn HPEs are concentrated in the western Sahara, while events in the north of the desert and in its driest core in the northeast occur mainly in winter and spring. In these regions, north of the Tropic of Cancer, events are highly associated with surface cyclones. HPEs that were associated with cyclones are characterised by larger spatial extent and rainfall volume. Considering that weather and climate models often depict synoptic-scale weather systems more accurately than rainfall patterns, the association of Saharan HPEs with surface cyclones and other synoptic-scale systems can aid in comprehending the effects of climate change in the desert. Furthermore, it underscores the potential for higher predictability of these events.

Synoptic Climatology of Central U.S. Snowfall

Abstract Prior research evaluating snowfall conditions and temporal trends in the United States often acknowledges the role of various synoptic-scale weather systems in governing snowfall variability. While synoptic classifications have been performed in other regions of North America in applications to snowfall, there remains a need for enhanced understanding of the atmospheric mechanisms of snowfall in the central United States. Here we conduct a novel synoptic climatological investigation of the weather systems responsible for snowfall in the central United States from 1948 to 2021 focused on their identification and the quantification of associated snowfall totals and events. Ten unique synoptic weather types (SWTs) were identified, each resulting in distinct regions of enhanced snowfall across the study domain aligning with regions of sufficiently cold air temperatures and forcing mechanisms. While a substantial proportion of seasonal snowfall is attributed to SWTs associated with surface troughs and/or midlatitude cyclones, in portions of the southeastern and western study domain, as much as 70% of seasonal snowfall occurs during systems with high pressure centers as the domain’s synoptic-scale forcing. Easterly flow, potentially resulting in topographic uplift from high pressure to east of the domain, was associated with between 15% and 25% of seasonal snowfall in Nebraska and South Dakota. On average, 64.8% of the SWT occurrences resulted in snowfall within the study region, ranging between 40.1% and 93.5% by SWT. Synoptic climatological investigations provide valuable insights into the unique weather systems that generate hydroclimatic variability. Significance Statement By evaluating the weather patterns that are responsible for snowfall in the central United States, key insights can be gained into how and why snowfall varies and potentially changes over space and time. Using an approach that categorizes weather patterns based on their similarities, here 10 unique snowfall-producing weather patterns are identified and analyzed from 1948 to 2021. Each pattern resulted in different snowfall amounts across the central United States, varying substantially spatially and within the calendar year. Approximately 65% of the time that these weather patterns occur, snowfall is observed in the region. The majority of snowfall-producing weather patterns are associated with low pressure systems, but in some regions up to 70% of snowfall is associated with instances of high pressure in which winds can cause upward motions associated with topography.

Meteorological history of low-forest-greenness events in Europe in 2002–2022

Abstract. Forest dieback in Europe has recently intensified and has become more extensive. This dieback is strongly influenced by meteorological variations of temperature, T2m, and precipitation, P, and can be monitored with forest greenness. This study quantitatively investigates the 3-year meteorological history preceding events of reduced forest greenness in Europe's temperate and Mediterranean biome with a systematic approach. A specific focus lies in the timing of unusually persistent and unusually strong anomalies of T2m and P, as well as their relation to synoptic weather systems. A pragmatic approach based on remote sensing observations of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) serves to identify low-forest-NDVI events at the 50 km scale in Europe in June to August 2002–2022. We quantify the impact of the hottest summer on record in Europe in 2022, which, according to our criteria, negatively affected 37 % of temperate and Mediterranean forest regions, and thereby reduced forest greenness more extensively than any other summer in 2002–2022. The low-NDVI events occurred in particularly dry and hot summers, but their meteorological histories also featured significant anomalies further in the past, with clear differences between the temperate and Mediterranean biome. A key feature is the anomalous accumulation of dry periods (i.e., periods with a P deficit) over the preceding 26 and 34 months in the temperate and Mediterranean biome, respectively. In the temperate biome only, T2m was anomalously persistent during almost the same 26-month period and featured distinctive peaks late in the past three growing seasons. While anomalously strong hot–dry conditions were characteristic of temperate low-NDVI events already in the previous summer, we find hardly any other systematic meteorological precursor in the Mediterranean prior to the event year. The identified dry periods went along with reduced cyclone activity in the Mediterranean and positive anticyclone frequency in the temperate biome. The occurrence of these two weather systems is locally more nuanced, showing, e.g., consistently increased and decreased cyclone frequency over western and northern Europe, respectively, in all event summers. Finally, the systematic meteorological histories are useful to test whether locally observed meteorological impacts, e.g., structural overshoot, systematically influenced the investigated events. In summary, systematic investigations of the multi-annual meteorological history provided clear evidence of how surface weather and synoptic-scale weather systems over up to 3 years can negatively impact European forest greenness. The observation of the record-extensive low-NDVI event in the summer of 2022 underlines that understanding the forest–meteorology interaction is of particular relevance for forest dieback in a changing climate.

Borneo Vortices in a warmer climate

Borneo Vortices (BVs) are weather systems that are responsible for devastating hydro-climatic extremes and significant losses of life and property in Southeast Asia. The typical resolution of most current climate models is insufficient to resolve these high-impact, synoptic-scale weather systems. Here, an ensemble of high-resolution models projects that future BVs may become less frequent and more stationary, driven by the weakening of the Northeast monsoon flow and associated cold surges across North Borneo. However, substantial increases in both the intensity and the total amount of precipitation from BVs are projected. Such changes are driven by the more humid and convectively unstable lower troposphere. As a result, the contribution of BVs to the accumulation of both total precipitation and extreme precipitation is projected to increase considerably in the vicinity of the southern South China Sea, making individual BVs more threatening to the adjacent coastal regions.

Case study on the influence of synoptic-scale processes on the paired H2O–O3 distribution in the UTLS across a North Atlantic jet stream

Abstract. During a research flight of the Wave-driven ISentropic Exchange (WISE) campaign, which was conducted over the eastern North Atlantic on 1 October 2017, the composition of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) across the North Atlantic jet stream was observed by airborne, range-resolved differential absorption lidar (DIAL) profiles. We investigate how the high variability in the paired H2O and O3 distribution along the two-dimensional lidar cross section is affected by synoptic-scale weather systems, as revealed by the Lagrangian history of the observed air masses. To this aim, the lidar observations are combined with 10 d backward trajectories along which meteorological parameters and derived turbulence diagnostics are traced. The transport and mixing characteristics are then projected to the vertical cross sections of the lidar measurements and to the H2O–O3 phase space to explore linkages with the evolution of synoptic-scale weather systems and their interaction. Tropical, midlatitude, and arctic weather systems in the region of the jet stream and the related transport and mixing explain the complex H2O and O3 distribution to a large extent: O3-rich stratospheric air from the high Arctic interacts with midlatitude air from the North Pacific in a northward-deflected jet stream associated with an anticyclone over the US and forms a filament extending into the tropopause fold beneath the jet stream. In the troposphere, lifting related to convection in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and two tropical cyclones that continuously injected H2O into dry descending air from the tropical Atlantic and Pacific form filamentary H2O structures. One tropical cyclone that transitioned into a midlatitude cyclone lifted moist boundary layer air, explaining the highest tropospheric H2O values. During the two days before the observations, the air with mixed tropospheric and stratospheric characteristics experienced frequent turbulence along the North Atlantic jet stream, indicating a strong influence of turbulence on the formation of the extratropical transition layer (ExTL). This investigation highlights the complexity of stirring and mixing processes and their close connection to interacting tropospheric weather systems from the tropics to the polar regions, which strongly influenced the observed fine-scale H2O and O3 distributions. The identified non-local character of mixing should be kept in mind when interpreting mixing lines in tracer–tracer phase space diagrams.

Assessing the impact of synoptic weather systems on air quality in Sydney using Radon 222

The state of the atmosphere can affect the degree of dilution of emitted pollutants, and similar local and diurnal meteorological conditions can be grouped according to prevailing synoptic scale weather systems. Traditionally, various methods have been used to classify atmospheric conditions. Here we investigate the use of Radon-222 (radon) for the classification of weather systems and determine the degree of dilution under different synoptic conditions.Air quality data was analyzed in Richmond Australia over a 13-year period. Radon was used to determine 5 nocturnal stability categories numbered 0 to 4, with 0 capturing times of fast-changing fetch influences, and 1–4 representing increasing conditions of nocturnal stability (1: near neutral, to 4: strongly stable). These categories were then related to prevailing synoptic weather systems. It was found that increasing radon-derived stability categories were associated with reducing intensity of frontal systems traversing southern Australia and extending into the Southern Ocean, with stability category 4 associated with blocking high pressure systems located to the east of the site.The median nocturnal wind speeds and mixing layer heights decreased as we moved from stability category 0 to 4, indicating that the mixing volumes for pollutants released into the atmosphere from surface sources was progressively getting smaller. This decreasing dilution from stability category 0 to 4 resulted in strongly increasing median pollutant concentrations. However, on diurnal and seasonal time scales, differences were observed which could be attributed to changes in emission rates.Our results show that when investigating the impact of air quality mitigation strategies, any variations in meteorological conditions during the comparison periods needs to be considered in addition to changes in pollution emission rates, and that near-surface radon observations and the ventilation coefficient are a convenient and effective tool for this purpose.

Validation of Cloud Burst over Chennai in 2015 using Radar data

In 2015, three synoptic-scale weather systems affected Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry during the NE Monsoon season, causing extensive rainfall activity. Extremely heavy rains occurred over Chennai and surrounding districts, due to which Chennai was fully inundated. Rain rate of the order of 100-200 mm/hour led to cloudburst over Chennai. In this paper, we have used radar data to examine and substantiate the cloud burst that led to these torrential rains over Chennai during 8-9 November and 30 Nov-2 December 2015&#x0D;

Identification, characteristics and dynamics of Arctic extreme seasons

Abstract. The Arctic atmosphere is strongly affected by anthropogenic warming leading to long-term trends in surface temperature and sea ice extent. In addition, it exhibits strong variability on timescales from days to seasons. While recent research elucidated processes leading to short-term extreme conditions in the Arctic, this study investigates unusual atmospheric conditions on the seasonal timescale. Based on a principal component analysis in the phase space spanned by the seasonal-mean values of surface temperature, precipitation and the atmospheric components of the surface energy balance, individual seasons are objectively identified that deviate strongly from a running-mean climatology and that we define as extreme seasons. Given the strongly varying surface conditions in the Arctic, this analysis is done separately in Arctic sub-regions that are climatologically characterized by either sea ice, open ocean or mixed conditions. Using ERA5 reanalyses for the years 1979–2018, our approach identifies two to three extreme seasons for each of winter, spring, summer and autumn, with strongly differing characteristics and affecting different Arctic sub-regions. Two extreme winters affecting the Kara and Barents seas are selected for a detailed investigation of their substructure, the role of synoptic-scale weather systems, and potential preconditioning by anomalous sea ice extent and/or sea surface temperature at the beginning of the season. Winter 2011/12 started with average sea ice coverage and was characterized by constantly above-average temperatures during the season related mainly to frequent warm air advection by quasi-stationary cyclones in the Nordic Seas. In contrast, winter 2016/17 started with reduced sea ice and enhanced sea surface temperatures in the Kara and Barents seas, which, together with increased frequencies of cold air outbreaks and cyclones, led to large upward surface heat flux anomalies and strongly increased precipitation during this extreme season. In summary, this study shows that extreme seasonal conditions in the Arctic are spatially heterogeneous, related to different near-surface parameters and caused by different synoptic-scale weather systems, potentially in combination with surface preconditioning due to anomalous ocean and sea ice conditions at the beginning of the season. The framework developed in this study and the insight gained from analyzing the ERA5 period will be beneficial for addressing the effects of global warming on Arctic extreme seasons.

Impacts of global warming on Meiyu–Baiu extreme rainfall and associated mid-latitude synoptic-scale systems as inferred from 20km AGCM simulations

The impacts of global warming on Meiyu–Baiu extreme rainfall and the associated mid-latitude synoptic-scale weather systems over the Eastern China (EC) and the Baiu rainband (Bu) regions in East Asia have been examined, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM3.2S). This model was demonstrated to give realistic Asian extreme rainfall, when compared with data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Here we used a novel wave-selection algorithm based on the 300 hPa wind, in order to identify upper-level propagating wave signals in conjunction with the occurrence of extreme precipitation in either EC or Bu. The same algorithm was applied for both the present (1979–2003) and future (2075–2099) climate simulations from the AGCM, so as to infer the impacts of global warming on the behavior of these systems. Results show robust decrease of intensity of systems influencing both Bu and EC in the future warmer climate. Their corresponding low-to-mid level circulation, as revealed by vertical velocity, temperature advection and sea-level pressure composites, was also found to be weakened. This is likely related to changes in the background circulation in future over the East Asian mid-latitude zone, such as the widespread increment of the seasonal mean static stability at 500 hPa. However, the wave-associated precipitation over these regions was enhanced in the future climate simulations. This can be attributed to more strong intensity rainfall, which increases as the background temperature in these regions warms, largely following the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. Therefore, changes of wave-related extreme precipitation in EC and Bu are mainly controlled by the thermodynamic effect; the latter appears to be much stronger than the potential impacts due to the slight weakening of these weather systems.

Toward usable predictive climate information at decadal timescales

Toward usable predictive climate information at decadal timescales

Synoptic conditions controlling the seasonal onset and days of heatwaves over Korea

As global warming gets worse, the extreme heat exposure time is expected to increase. Considering that the heatwave damages increased by the accumulation of heat stress, it is important to understand the heatwave onset and number of heatwave days (HWDs). Here, we show that the end of East Asian summer monsoon activity (i.e., Changma retreat date, CRD) could be an indicator in determining the onset of the heatwave, and the barotropic structure induced by the circumglobal and Pacific–Japan teleconnections is a key factor in lengthening the number of HWDs in Korea. The onset of the heatwave is delayed when CRD belated than the climatology late over Korea due to sufficient moisture transportation between the edge of western North Pacific subtropical high and cold polar air mass in July. The number of HWDs from July through August over Korea shows a positive linear relationship with the synoptic stagnation index because the upper-layer anticyclone associated with stagnation is formed around Korea by zonal wave activity. Barotropic anticyclone stabilizes the atmosphere and increases the number of clear sky days, which possibly leads to hot days. Fewer HWDs are observed when there is baroclinic instability due to strong upper-level jet stream and synoptic-scale weather systems move smoothly. By identifying the meteorological mechanism of heatwave occurrence and favorable conditions for sustained hot days over Korea, our results are eventually able to contribute to reducing damages caused by heatwaves.

Extreme wet seasons – their definition and relationship with synoptic-scale weather systems

Abstract. An extreme aggregation of precipitation on the seasonal timescale, leading to a so-called extreme wet season, can have substantial environmental and socio-economic impacts. This study has a twofold aim: first to identify and statistically characterize extreme wet seasons around the globe and second to elucidate their relationship with specific weather systems. Extreme wet seasons are defined independently at every grid point of ERA-Interim reanalyses as the consecutive 90 d period with the highest accumulated precipitation in the 40-year period of 1979–2018. In most continental regions, the extreme seasons occur during the warm months of the year, especially in the midlatitudes. Nevertheless, colder periods might be also relevant, especially in coastal areas. All identified extreme seasons are statistically characterized in terms of climatological anomalies of the number of wet days and of daily extreme events. Results show that daily extremes are decisive for the occurrence of extreme wet seasons in regions of frequent precipitation, e.g., in the tropics. This is in contrast to arid regions where wet seasons may occur only due to anomalously frequent wet days. In the subtropics and more precisely within the transitional zones between arid areas and regions of frequent precipitation, both an anomalously high occurrence of daily extremes and of wet days are related to the formation of extreme wet seasons. A novel method is introduced to define the spatial extent of regions affected by a particular extreme wet season and to relate extreme seasons to four objectively identified synoptic-scale weather systems, which are known to be associated with intense precipitation: cyclones, warm conveyor belts, tropical moisture exports and breaking Rossby waves. Cyclones and warm conveyor belts contribute particularly strongly to extreme wet seasons in most regions of the globe. But interlatitudinal influences are also shown to be important: tropical moisture exports, i.e., the poleward transport of tropical moisture, can contribute to extreme wet seasons in the midlatitudes, while breaking Rossby waves, i.e., the equatorward intrusion of stratospheric air, may decisively contribute to the formation of extreme wet seasons in the tropics. Three illustrative examples provide insight into the synergetic effects of the four identified weather systems on the formation of extreme wet seasons in the midlatitudes, the Arctic and the (sub)tropics.

A COMBINED VERIFICATION METHOD FOR PREDICTABILITY OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS OVER EAST ASIA BASED ON ENSEMBLE FORECAST

Persistent Heavy Rainfall (PHR) is the most influential extreme weather event in Asia in summer, and thus it has attracted intensive interests of many scientists. In this study, operational global ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration(CMA) are used, and a new verification method applied to evaluate the predictability of PHR is investigated. A metrics called Index of Composite Predictability (ICP) established on basic verification indicators, i. e., Equitable Threat Score(ETS) of 24h accumulated precipitation and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of Height at 500hPa, are selected in this study to distinguish“good”and“poor”prediction from all ensemble members. With the use of the metrics of ICP, the predictability of two typical PHR events in June 2010 and June 2011 is estimated. The results show that the“good member”and“poor member”can be identified by ICP and there is an obvious discrepancy in their ability to predict the key weather system that affects PHR.“Good member”shows a higher predictability both in synoptic scale and mesoscale weather system in their location, duration and the movement. The growth errors for “poor” members is mainly due to errors of initial conditions in northern polar region. The growth of perturbation errors and the reason for better or worse performance of ensemble member also have great value for future model improvement and further research.

On the determining factors in cases of moderate to heavy precipitation in Tehran

Investigating the factors responsible for heavy precipitation events is important because of the financial and non-financial losses they often cause. Based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis and a numerical mesoscale forecasting model (WRF), the effects of four factors on significant precipitations in Tehran are studied. The four factors are upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, and mid-tropospheric PV anomalies as two meteorological factors; and the Alborz and Zagros mountains as two external factors. A factor separation analysis is applied to six days that are representative (most similar) of the six circulation types (CTs) previously identified for moderate to heavy precipitations in Tehran. The independent contribution of the upper-level PV anomaly to precipitation in each of the selected days of the second to the sixth CT is higher than 60%; hence, the upper-level tropospheric flow provided the main precipitation forcing factor, with much less contribution from the thermodynamic factor of the mid-level troposphere. Regarding the two orographic external factors, the higher positive impact on Tehran precipitation is found for the Alborz mountains. This is related to synoptic-scale weather systems that induce a northerly low-level flow towards the Alborz mountains. Moreover, in all the studied cases, except the fifth CT, the independent impact of the Zagros mountains on Tehran precipitation is positive. In all of the selected days except that of the first CT, the main factor responsible for precipitation is the intrusion of dry and cold stratospheric air associated with a large positive PV anomaly (streamer) at upper-tropospheric levels. For the first CT, further quest is necessary to find out the main factor.

Characterization of transport regimes and the polar dome during Arctic spring and summer using in situ aircraft measurements

Abstract. The springtime composition of the Arctic lower troposphere is to a large extent controlled by the transport of midlatitude air masses into the Arctic. In contrast, precipitation and natural sources play the most important role during summer. Within the Arctic region sloping isentropes create a barrier to horizontal transport, known as the polar dome. The polar dome varies in space and time and exhibits a strong influence on the transport of air masses from midlatitudes, enhancing transport during winter and inhibiting transport during summer. We analyzed aircraft-based trace gas measurements in the Arctic from two NETCARE airborne field campaigns (July 2014 and April 2015) with the Alfred Wegener Institute Polar 6 aircraft, covering an area from Spitsbergen to Alaska (134 to 17∘ W and 68 to 83∘ N). Using these data we characterized the transport regimes of midlatitude air masses traveling to the high Arctic based on CO and CO2 measurements as well as kinematic 10 d back trajectories. We found that dynamical isolation of the high Arctic lower troposphere leads to gradients of chemical tracers reflecting different local chemical lifetimes, sources, and sinks. In particular, gradients of CO and CO2 allowed for a trace-gas-based definition of the polar dome boundary for the two measurement periods, which showed pronounced seasonal differences. Rather than a sharp boundary, we derived a transition zone from both campaigns. In July 2014 the polar dome boundary was at 73.5∘ N latitude and 299–303.5 K potential temperature. During April 2015 the polar dome boundary was on average located at 66–68.5∘ N and 283.5–287.5 K. Tracer–tracer scatter plots confirm different air mass properties inside and outside the polar dome in both spring and summer. Further, we explored the processes controlling the recent transport history of air masses within and outside the polar dome. Air masses within the springtime polar dome mainly experienced diabatic cooling while traveling over cold surfaces. In contrast, air masses in the summertime polar dome were diabatically heated due to insolation. During both seasons air masses outside the polar dome slowly descended into the Arctic lower troposphere from above through radiative cooling. Ascent to the middle and upper troposphere mainly took place outside the Arctic, followed by a northward motion. Air masses inside and outside the polar dome were also distinguished by different chemical compositions of both trace gases and aerosol particles. We found that the fraction of amine-containing particles, originating from Arctic marine biogenic sources, is enhanced inside the polar dome. In contrast, concentrations of refractory black carbon are highest outside the polar dome, indicating remote pollution sources. Synoptic-scale weather systems frequently disturb the transport barrier formed by the polar dome and foster exchange between air masses from midlatitudes and polar regions. During the second phase of the NETCARE 2014 measurements a pronounced low-pressure system south of Resolute Bay brought inflow from southern latitudes, which pushed the polar dome northward and significantly affected trace gas mixing ratios in the measurement region. Mean CO mixing ratios increased from 77.9±2.5 to 84.9±4.7 ppbv between these two regimes. At the same time CO2 mixing ratios significantly decreased from 398.16 ± 1.01 to 393.81 ± 2.25 ppmv. Our results demonstrate the utility of applying a tracer-based diagnostic to determine the polar dome boundary for interpreting observations of atmospheric composition in the context of transport history.