Sydney Estuary Research Articles

The mismatch of bioaccumulated trace metals (Cu, Pb and Zn) in field and transplanted oysters (Saccostrea glomerata) to ambient surficial sediments and suspended particulate matter in a highly urbanised estuary (Sydney estuary, Australia).

A significant correlation between sedimentary metals, particularly the 'bio-available' fraction, and bioaccumulated metal concentrations in the native Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata) tissues has been successfully demonstrated previously for Cu and Zn in a number of estuaries in New South Wales, Australia. However, this relationship has been difficult to establish in a highly modified estuary (Sydney estuary, Australia) where metal contamination is of greatest concern and where a significant relationship would be most useful for environmental monitoring. The use of the Sydney rock oyster as a biomonitoring tool for metal contamination was assessed in the present study by investigating relationships between metals attached to sediments and suspended particulate matter (SPM) to bioaccumulated concentrations in oyster tissues. Surficial sediments (both total and fine-fraction), SPM and wild oysters were collected over 3years from three embayments (Chowder Bay, Mosman Bay and Iron Cove) with each embayment representing a different physiographic region of Sydney estuary. In addition, a transplant experiment of farmed oysters was conducted in the same embayments for 3months. No relationship was observed between sediments or SPM metals (Cu, Pb and Zn) to tissue of wild oysters; however, significant relationship was observed against transplanted oysters. The mismatch between wild and farmed, transplanted oysters is perplexing and indicates that wild oysters are unsuitable to be used as a biomonitoring tool due to the involvement of unknown complex factors while transplanted oysters hold strong potential.

Historic change in catchment land use and metal loading to Sydney estuary, Australia (1788-2010).

Sydney estuary has a long history of environmental degradation and is one of the most modified water ways in Australia due to a highly urbanised catchment (~77 %) and a high population (4.6 million). The objectives of the present study were to map historical land use change from European settlement (1788) to 2010 to determine catchment evolutionary pathways and to estimate catchment loading (total suspended solids, Cu, Pb and Zn) to the estuary over this period. Land use distribution in Sydney catchment, determined for seven time horizons over this period, indicated that a substantial increase in residential land use through subdivision of large estates and an increase in road area resulted in a marked increase in metal loading to Sydney estuary between 1892 and 1936. The decline in industrial activity from a maximum in 1978 (3.9 %) to 1.8 % in 2010 and the introduction of unleaded fuel during this time was accompanied by reduction in metal loading to the estuary. Land use time horizon maps enabled the creation of novel, ternary diagrams to represent temporal evolution in catchment land use. The 15 sub-catchments of Sydney estuary were combined into three major catchment categories, i.e., urban, dense urban and commercial. Present-day annual discharge of stormwater from the Sydney catchment was calculated to be 466,000 ML and annual loadings of total suspended sediment (TSS), Cu, Pb and Zn in tonnes were 49,239, 27, 37 and 57, respectively. Stormwater has superseded industry as the main source of anthropogenic metals to this estuary in recent times.

Dietary ingestion of fine sediments and microalgae represent the dominant route of exposure and metal accumulation for Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata): A biokinetic model for zinc

Past studies disagree on the extent to which dissolved or dietary uptake contribute to metal bioaccumulation in the filter-feeding Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata) in urbanized estuaries. Although most data support the assumption that fine sediments are a major route of metal uptake in these bivalves, some studies based in the Sydney estuary, Australia, have indicated a poor correlation. In the present study, seawater, sediment and microalgae were radiolabelled with 65Zn tracer and exposed to S. glomerata to assess the influence of dissolved and dietary sources to Zn bioaccumulation. Oysters in the dissolved-phase uptake experiment (5, 25 and 50μgL−1 65Zn for 4 d followed by 21 days of depuration) readily accumulated 65Zn for all three concentrations with an uptake rate constant of 0.160±0.006L dry weight g−1d−1. Oysters in the dietary assimilation experiment (1h pulse-feed of either 65Zn-radiolabelled suspended fine-fraction (<63μm) sediment or the microalgae Tetraselmis sp.) accumulated 65Zn, with assimilation efficiencies of 59 and 67% for fine sediment and microalgae, respectively. The efflux rates were low for the three experiments (0.1–0.5%d−1). A bioaccumulation kinetic model predicts that uptake of Zn will occur predominantly through the dietary ingestion of contaminated fine sediment particles and microalgae within the water column, with considerably greater metal bioaccumulation predicted if oysters ingested microalgae preferentially to sediments. However, the model predicts that for dissolved Zn concentrations greater than 40μgL−1, as observed during precipitation events, the uptake of the dissolved phase may contribute ≥50% to accumulation. Overall, the results of the present study suggest that all three sources may be important exposure routes to S. glomerata under different environmental conditions, but contributions from dietary exposure will often dominate.

Emerging contaminants (pharmaceuticals, personal care products, a food additive and pesticides) in waters of Sydney estuary, Australia

The current investigation of marine water from 30 sites adjacent to stormwater outlets across the entire Sydney estuary is the first such research in Australia. The number of analytes detected were: 8/59 pharmaceutical compounds (codeine, paracetamol, tramadol, venlafaxine, propranolol, fluoxetine, iopromide and carbamazepine), 7/38 of the pesticides (2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D), 3,4-dichloroaniline, carbaryl, diuron, 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid (MCPA), mecoprop and simazine) and 0/3 of the personal care products (PCPs) analysed. An artificial sweetener (acesulfame) was detected, however none of the nine antibiotics analysed were identified. Sewage water is not discharged to this estuary, except infrequently as overflow during high-precipitation events. The presence of acesulfame (a recognised marker of domestic wastewater) and pharmaceuticals in water from all parts of the estuary after a dry period, suggests sewage water is leaking into the stormwater system in this catchment. The pesticides are applied to the environment and were discharged via stormwater to the estuary.

Growth and decline of shoreline industry in Sydney estuary (Australia) and influence on adjacent estuarine sediments.

Sydney estuary (Australia), like many urbanised waterways, is degraded due to an extended history of anthropogenic activity. Two major sources of contamination to this estuary are discharge by former shoreline industries and historic and contemporary catchment stormwater. The objectives of the present study were to document changes in shoreline land use from European settlement to the present day and determine the influence of this trend on the metal content of adjacent estuarine sediments. Temporal analysis of land use for seven time horizons between 1788 and 2010 showed rapid expansion of industry along much of the Sydney estuary foreshore soon after European settlement due to the benefits of easy and inexpensive access and readily available water for cooling and power. Shoreline industry attained maximum development in 1978 (32-km length) and declined rapidly to the present-day (9-km length) through redevelopment of industrial sites into medium- to high-density, high-value residential housing. Cores taken adjacent to 11 long-term industrial sites showed that past industrial practices contributed significantly to contamination of estuarine sediment. Subsurface metal concentrations were up to 35 times that of present-day surface sediment and over 100 times greater than natural background concentrations. Sedimentation rates for areas adjacent to shoreline industry were between 0.6 and 2.5 cm/year, and relaxation times were estimated at 50 to 100 years. Natural relaxation and non-disturbance of sediments may be the best management practice in most locations.

Historical trends of PBDEs and HBCDs in sediment cores from Sydney estuary, Australia

This paper presents the first historical data on the occurrence of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDs) in estuarine sediment from Australia. Sediment cores and surficial sediment samples were collected from four locations within Sydney estuary, Australia. Large increases in concentrations were observed for all compounds between 1980 and 2014, especially for BDE-209 (representative usage of Deca-BDE commercial mixture), which was found in surficial sediment at an average concentration of 42ng/g dry wt (21–65ng/g dry wt). PBDE congeners representative of both the Penta- and Octa-BDE commercial mixtures (∑6PBDEs) were also found in their highest concentrations in surficial sediments (average: 1.3ng/g dry wt; range: 0.65–2.5ng/g dry wt). PBDE concentrations in surficial sediments were relatively high when compared with those presented in the available literature. This suggests that their input into the Sydney estuary has not decreased since their bans almost a decade earlier. After a sharp increase in the 1990s, HBCD concentrations peaked at an average of 3.5ng/g dry wt (1.8–5.3ng/g dry wt) in surficial samples. With global legislation on HBCDs allowing its usage for the next 10years, it is expected that its input into the estuary is likely to continue.

Effectiveness of remediation of metal-contaminated mangrove sediments (Sydney estuary, Australia).

Industrial activities and urbanization have had a major consequence for estuarine ecosystem health and water quality globally. Likewise, Sydney estuary has been significantly impacted by widespread, poor industrial practices in the past, and remediation of legacy contaminants have been undertaken in limited parts of this waterway. The objective of the present investigation was to determine the effectiveness of remediation of a former Pb-contaminated industrial site in Homebush Bay on Sydney estuary (Australia) through sampling of inter-tidal sediments and mangrove (Avicennia marina) tissue (fine nutritive roots, pneumatophores, and leaves). Results indicate that since remediation 6 years previously, Pb and other metals (Cu, Ni and Zn) in surficial sediment have increased to concentrations that approach pre-remediation levels and that they were considerably higher than pre-settlement levels (3-30 times), as well as at the reference site. Most metals were compartmentalized in fine nutritive roots with bio-concentration factors greater than unity, while tissues of pneumatophores and leaves contained low metal concentrations. Lead concentrations in fine nutritive root, pneumatophore, and leaf tissue of mangroves from the remediated site were similar to trees in un-remediated sites of the estuary and were substantially higher than plants at the reference site. The situation for Zn in fine nutritive root tissue was similar. The source of the metals was either surface/subsurface water from the catchment or more likely remobilized contaminated sediment from un-remediated parts of Homebush Bay. Results of this study demonstrate the problems facing management in attempting to reduce contamination in small parts of a large impacted area to concentrations below local base level.

Partitioning of trace elements in contaminated estuarine sediments: The role of environmental settings

Estuarine sedimentary environments safeguard aquatic ecosystem health by attenuating and transforming catchment-derived contaminants. Currently these environments are under severe stress from trace element contamination due to urbanization. Sediments of Sydney estuary (Australia) are highly elevated in a range of metals due to a long period of intense urbanization and industrialization, which has had a considerable influence on coastal ecosystem health and functioning. A three-stage sequential procedure following Bureau Communautaire de Référence (Community Bureau of Reference—BCR) technique was applied to sediments collected from Sydney estuary to determine their quality, elemental partitioning and ecosystem risk in three human-impacted environmental settings (i.e., mangrove-dominated, stormwater-dominated and industrial-dominated sites) and a control site in this coastal ecosystem. In all three environmental settings, Pb and Zn concentrations exceeded Australian Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines-High (ISQG-High) values and were mostly associated with the reducible and acid soluble fractions, respectively. Copper and Cr also exceeded ISQG-High values (especially in the industrial-dominated site), however the majority of these metals were associated with the oxidizable fraction. Arsenic and Ni concentrations were mostly below ISQG-High values (except one of the stormwater-dominated sites) and were associated with the residual fraction. These results suggest that the most easily mobilized metal was Zn followed by Pb and these metals together presented a risk to estuarine ecosystems in the three selected environmental settings. However, these metals are not always the most abundant in tissue of mangroves, oysters or prawns suggesting other mechanisms are important in a complex uptake process.

Assessment of biotic response to heavy metal contamination in Avicennia marina mangrove ecosystems in Sydney Estuary, Australia

Mangrove forests act as a natural filter of land-derived wastewaters along industrialized tropical and sub-tropical coastlines and assist in maintaining a healthy living condition for marine ecosystems. Currently, these intertidal communities are under serious threat from heavy metal contamination induced by human activity associated with rapid urbanization and industrialization. Studies on the biotic responses of these plants to heavy metal contamination are of great significance in estuary management and maintaining coastal ecosystem health. The main objective of the present investigation was to assess the biotic response in Avicennia marina ecosystems to heavy metal contamination through the determination of metal concentrations in leaves, fine nutritive roots and underlying sediments collected in fifteen locations across Sydney Estuary (Australia). Metal concentrations (especially Cu, Pb and Zn) in the underlying sediments of A. marina were enriched to a level (based on Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines) at which adverse biological effects to flora could occasionally occur. Metals accumulated in fine nutritive roots greater than underlying sediments, however, only minor translocation of these metals to A. marina leaves was observed (mean translocation factors, TFs, for all elements <0.13, except for Mn). Translocation factors of essential elements (i.e., common plant micro-nutrients, Cu, Ni, Mn and Zn) were greater than non-essential elements (As, Cd, Co, Cr and Pb), suggesting that A. marina mangroves of this estuary selectively excluded non-essential elements, while regulating essential elements and limiting toxicity to plants. This study supports the notion that A. marina mangroves act as a phytostabilizer in this highly modified estuary thereby protecting the aquatic ecosystem from point or non-point sources of heavy metal contamination.

Relationships between dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and dioxin-like biphenyls (dl-PCBs) congener concentrations in aquatic organisms from Sydney Estuary, Australia and physiology, spatial, seasonality, trophodynamic and life history traits

Over the past few decades, there has been considerable interest in hydrophobic persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and their accumulative properties in aquatic organisms. Several factors, such as environmental concentrations (i.e. in sediment) and physiological characteristics of organisms determine species-specific accumulation patterns of POPs in marine animal tissue. The present study investigated factors that govern species-specific accumulation patterns of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and dioxin-like biphenyls (dl-PCBs) in a food web from Sydney Estuary (Australia). The results indicated that physiological characteristics, i.e. lipid %, spatial, i.e. distance from Homebush Bay (point source of POPs) and life history characteristics of the organisms, such as diet and home range, influence PCDD/F and dl-PCB tissue concentrations to a varying degree. For example, PCDD/F tissue concentrations increased with the presence of detritivorous diet, species with limited home range and close proximity to Homebush Bay. On the other hand, lipid %, piscivorous diet and close proximity to Homebush Bay were the main predictors causing increases in dl-PCB tissue levels. Distance from Homebush Bay was the only predictor affecting both PCDD/F and dl-PCB tissue levels at a similar rate, i.e. decreasing tissue concentrations as the distance increases from Homebush Bay.

The nature and source of irregular discharges to stormwater entering Sydney estuary, Australia

Irregular discharges of polluted stormwater into drainage systems during base flow (no rainfall) result in acute ecological impacts within fluvial and estuarine environments. In this study, metal and TSS concentrations were significantly more variable during business hours of weekdays (i.e. high-business activity) than weekends/public holidays (i.e. low-business activity) within three highly-urbanised catchments of Sydney estuary (Australia), as determined by analysing multivariate dispersion (PERMDISP). Concentrations of TSS and all metals analysed (Al, Ca, Cu, Fe, Mg, Pb and Zn) were also significantly greater during high- than low-business periods within at least one of the three catchments. In no case were concentrations significantly higher during low- than high-business periods. This pattern of contamination supports the hypothesis that commercial and industrial sources are major contributors of irregular discharges of contamination to Sydney estuary. Irregular discharges and consequential ecological impacts may be effectively reduced in this environment by focussing management efforts on these activities.

The discrepancy in concentration of metals (Cu, Pb and Zn) in oyster tissue (Saccostrea glomerata) and ambient bottom sediment (Sydney estuary, Australia)

The current study aimed to examine the relationship between metals in sediments and metal bioaccumulation in oyster tissue in a highly-modified estuary (Sydney estuary, Australia). While extensive metal contamination was observed in surficial sediments, suspended particulate matter and oyster tissue, a significant relationship between these media could not be established. No relationship was determined between sediment quality guidelines and oyster size or weight, nor with human consumption levels for metals in oyster tissue. Moreover, oyster tissue metal concentrations varied greatly at a single locality over temporal scales of years. Oyster tissue at all 19 study sites exceeded consumptions levels for Cu. Bioaccumulation of metals in oyster tissue is a useful dynamic indicator of anthropogenic influence within estuaries, however oysters cannot be used in Sydney estuary as a valid biomonitor due to overriding internal regulation (homoestasis) by the animal, or by external natural (sediment resuspension) and anthropogenic (sewer/stormwater discharges) pressures, or both.

Accumulation of trace metals in grey mangrove Avicennia marina fine nutritive roots: The role of rhizosphere processes

Mangrove sediment has long been recognized as being important in restricting the mobility of contaminants in estuarine environments. To investigate the role of rhizosphere processes in the accumulation of trace metals in mangrove fine nutritive roots, the mangrove sediments and associated fine nutritive roots are collected from five major embayments of Sydney estuary (Australia) for geochemical studies. In this estuary Avicennia marina sediments are accumulating large quantities of trace metals due to presence of abundant fine sediment (<62.5μm) and organic matter as well as anthropogenic input. Accumulation of trace metals in fine nutritive roots responds to total sediment chemistry mainly due to rhizosphere sediment geochemical processes resulting in a strong linear correlation between metal concentrations in fine nutritive roots vs. total and bio-available contents in sediments. Accumulation of trace metals in fine nutritive roots is almost always exceeds rhizosphere total sediment metal concentrations.

Assessment of sediment quality in Avicennia marina-dominated embayments of Sydney Estuary: The potential use of pneumatophores (aerial roots) as a bio-indicator of trace metal contamination

Currently, coastal intertidal environments are under stress from increased contaminant loads due to urbanization and other anthropogenic disturbances. Mangrove habitats are abundant in tropical and sub-topical intertidal zones and frequently act as a metal bio-filter in estuarine systems. Mangrove reforestation is often considered as one of the management options to protect estuarine–marine habitats. The main objective of the present investigation was to assess the bio-indicator potential of Avicennia marina by determining heavy metal concentrations in pneumatophore (aerial root) tissues and ambient sediments from Sydney Estuary (Australia). We collected mangrove sediments and pneumatophores in fifteen locations covering five major embayments of the estuary for a detailed biogeochemical investigation. Metal concentrations in sediment were mostly above Australian interim sediment quality guidelines (ISQG)-Low and in few instances above ISQG-High values. Enrichment factors (EFs >6, especially of Cu, Pb and Zn) suggest “very severe” modification of sediment in Sydney Estuary in all but one embayment which was mainly due to rapid changes in land use in connection with urbanization. High bio-concentration factors (BCFs) were observed for Cu and Ni in comparison with other metals (i.e., As, Cd, Co, Cr, Pb and Zn). A strong, positive relationship between metals in sediments and pneumatophores suggests potential use of these tissues as a bio-indicator of estuarine contamination and that metals are entering the biotic environment. The study further highlights a positive role of mangroves in sequestering metals from sediments and the water column and thus protecting estuarine environments from pollution.

A Remarkable Recovery in the Sydney Rock Oyster (Saccostrea glomerata) Population in a Highly Urbanised Estuary (Sydney Estuary, Australia)

Birch, G.F.; Apostolatos, C., and Taylor, S.E., 2013. A Remarkable Recovery in the Sydney Rock Oyster (Saccostrea glomerata) Population in a Highly Urbanised Estuary (Sydney Estuary, Australia).Surveys of the Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata) in the Sydney estuary (Australia) in 1995 and 2005 provided evidence of a significant and widespread increase in the abundance of this bivalve over this period. Oyster abundance and density increased predominately in the upper estuary where a 300% increase in water-line length coverage occurred over the 10-year period. The timing of increased abundance and co-incidence of high-shipping activity with areas of maximum oyster increase, suggest that partial banning of tributyltin in 1989 may have played a major role in the increase of S. glomerata in this estuary.

The recovery of oyster (Saccostrea glomerata) populations in Sydney estuary (Australia)

The current work documented a significant and widespread increase in the abundance of the Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata, in Sydney estuary (Australia) by undertaking surveys of oyster density in the estuary in 1989 and annually from 1994 to 2006. Oyster density at six control sites located in nearby National Parks unaffected by boating and stormwater discharges were compared to 17 study sites widely distributed within Sydney estuary. No oyster populations were evident in Sydney estuary in 1989; however, by 1994 oysters had colonised areas of the lower and central estuary and by 2002 densities were statistically similar to control sites. The timing of estuary-wide increases in oyster abundance suggests that the partial banning of tributyltin in 1989 for vessels under 25m long may have played a major role in the increase of S. glomerata in this estuary.

Metal accumulation in the greentail prawn, Metapenaeus bennettae, in Sydney and Port Hacking estuaries, Australia

Metal concentrations of the inshore greentail prawn, Metapenaeus bennettae, and surface sediments from locations within Sydney estuary and Port Hacking (Australia) were assessed for bioaccumulation and contamination. The current study aimed to assess metal concentrations in prawn tissue (tail muscle, exoskeleton, hepatopancreas and gills), relate whole body prawn tissue metal concentrations to sediment metal concentrations and animal size, as well as assess prawn consumption as a risk to human health. Metal concentrations were highest in sediment and prawns from contaminated locations (Iron Cove, Hen and Chicken Bay and Lane Cove) in Sydney estuary compared with the reference estuary (Port Hacking). Concentrations in sediments varied considerably between sites and between metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn), and although concentrations exceeded Interim Sediment Quality Guideline-Low values, metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) were below Australian National Health and Medical Research Council human consumption guidelines in prawn tail muscle tissue. Metal concentrations in prawn tail muscle tissue were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) amongst locations for Pb, Zn and Cd, and metal concentrations were generally highest in gills tissue, followed by the hepatopancreas, exoskeleton and tail muscle. The exoskeleton contained the highest Sr concentration; the hepatopancreas contained the highest As, Cu and Mo concentrations; and the gills contained the highest Al, Cr, Fe and Pb concentrations. Concentrations of Pb, As and Sr were significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) between size groups amongst locations.

The use of vintage surficial sediment data and sedimentary cores to determine past and future trends in estuarine metal contamination (Sydney estuary, Australia)

The objectives of the present investigation were to determine past trends in sediment contamination and possibly predict future trends. Multiple vintages of surficial sediment metal data, from a quasi-decadal ‘Status and Trends’ programme, were used to provide large-scale spatial information on current status and temporal change. This information was augmented by sediment cores, specifically located to verify surface sediment data and to determine trends at major points of stormwater discharge. The data obtained indicate that surficial sediment metal concentrations have declined, since about the early 1990s, in extensive parts of the upper and central estuaries and have increased slightly in the lower estuary, due mainly to a down-estuary shift in industry and urbanisation. Declining surficial sediment metal concentrations is due to a movement of industry out of the catchment, especially from foreshore areas and the introduction of regulation, which prevent pollutants being discharged directly to the estuary. The major present-day source of metals is stormwater, with minor inputs from the main estuary channel into embayments and runoff from previously contaminated mainland sites. Modelled relaxation rates are optimistic as high metal concentrations in stormwater will slow predicted rates. Stormwater remediation should be the main managerial focus for this estuary. Multiple vintages of surficial sediment metal data covering the past 30years, supplemented by sedimentary core data, have allowed past and future contamination trends to be determined. This type of science-based information provides an important tool for strategic management of this iconic waterway.

Use of sedimentary metals to predict metal concentrations in black mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) tissue and risk to human health (Sydney estuary, Australia)

Filter-feeding bivalves have been used extensively as an indicator of ecosystem condition and in management of estuarine environments. The current study aimed to determine whether sedimentary metals could predict metal concentrations in tissue of filter-feeding mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) and to identify areas of the estuary where mussel consumption posed a human health risk. Mussel tissue Cu and Zn concentrations (wet weight) were below guideline values for human consumption in all parts of the waterway, whereas Pb tissue concentrations exceed these guidelines (2.0 μg g(-1) wet weight) in the upper reaches of some embayments of the estuary. Concentrations of Cu and Pb in the fine fraction (<62.5 μm) of bottom sediment reasonably predicted concentrations (dry weight) of these metals in mussel tissue (r (2) =0.460 and p=0.001 and r (2) =0.669 and p<0.0001, respectively) as these materials are resuspendable and available to filter-feeding estuarine animals, whereas total sediment and mussel tissue were poorly related. Lead concentrations (>350 μg g(-1)) in fine sediments indicated areas of this estuary where human health was at risk due to high tissue concentrations of this metal. These results give encouragement for the use of the metal concentration in fine sediments as an indicator of estuarine condition and risk to human health in this waterway. Mussels were distributed in all parts of the estuary, even in areas where metal concentrations exceeded sediment quality guidelines.

The magnitude of variability produced by methods used to estimate annual stormwater contaminant loads for highly urbanised catchments

Stormwater contaminant loading estimates using event mean concentration (EMC), rainfall/runoff relationship calculations and computer modelling (Model of Urban Stormwater Infrastructure Conceptualisation--MUSIC) demonstrated high variability in common methods of water quality assessment. Predictions of metal, nutrient and total suspended solid loadings for three highly urbanised catchments in Sydney estuary, Australia, varied greatly within and amongst methods tested. EMC and rainfall/runoff relationship calculations produced similar estimates (within 1 SD) in a statistically significant number of trials; however, considerable variability within estimates (∼50 and ∼25 % relative standard deviation, respectively) questions the reliability of these methods. Likewise, upper and lower default inputs in a commonly used loading model (MUSIC) produced an extensive range of loading estimates (3.8-8.3 times above and 2.6-4.1 times below typical default inputs, respectively). Default and calibrated MUSIC simulations produced loading estimates that agreed with EMC and rainfall/runoff calculations in some trials (4-10 from 18); however, they were not frequent enough to statistically infer that these methods produced the same results. Great variance within and amongst mean annual loads estimated by common methods of water quality assessment has important ramifications for water quality managers requiring accurate estimates of the quantities and nature of contaminants requiring treatment.