Predicting the gas breakthrough pressure of saturated compacted bentonite is crucial for ensuring the long-term safe operation of deep geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive nuclear wastes. In this work, the swelling pressure, water injection, gas injection and mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) tests on saturated compacted Gaomiaozi (GMZ) bentonite specimens with a dry density of 1.3 Mg/m³, 1.4 Mg/m³, 1.5 Mg/m³, 1.6 Mg/m³ and 1.7 Mg/m³ were conducted. Subsequently, the relationships between the swelling pressure and average inter-particle distance, as well as between the gas entry pressure and the maximum effective pore size were analyzed and established. Considering that gas migration and breakthrough are all closely related to the pore structures of the tested geomaterials, a novel gas breakthrough pressure prediction model based on the pore size distribution (PSD) curve was constructed using an existing prediction model based on gas entry pressure and swelling pressure. Finally, based on the test results of the specimens 1.5 Mg/m³, 1.6 Mg/m³ and 1.7 Mg/m³, gas breakthrough pressures of the specimens with dry densities of 1.3 Mg/m³ and 1.4 Mg/m³ were predicted. The results show that the calculated gas breakthrough pressures of 0.76 MPa and 1.28 MPa are very close to the measured values of 0.80 MPa and 1.30 MPa, validating the accuracy of the proposed model.
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