Swedish Regional Research Articles

Land surface modelling in hydrology and meteorology – lessons learned from the Baltic Basin

Abstract. By both tradition and purpose, the land parameterization schemes of hydrological and meteorological models differ greatly. Meteorologists are concerned primarily with solving the energy balance, whereas hydrologists are most interested in the water balance. Meteorological climate models typically have multi-layered soil parameterisation that solves temperature fluxes numerically with diffusive equations. The same approach is carried over to a similar treatment of water transport. Hydrological models are not usually so interested in soil temperatures, but must provide a reasonable representation of soil moisture to get runoff right. To treat the heterogeneity of the soil, many hydrological models use only one layer with a statistical representation of soil variability. Such a hydrological model can be used on large scales while taking subgrid variability into account. Hydrological models also include lateral transport of water – an imperative if' river discharge is to be estimated. The concept of a complexity chain for coupled modelling systems is introduced, together with considerations for mixing model components. Under BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment) and SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme), a large-scale hydrological model of runoff in the Baltic Basin is used to review atmospheric climate model simulations. This incorporates both the runoff record and hydrological modelling experience into atmospheric model development. Results from two models are shown. A conclusion is that the key to improved models may be less complexity. Perhaps the meteorological models should keep their multi-layered approach for modelling soil temperature, but add a simpler, yet physically consistent, hydrological approach for modelling snow processes and water transport in the soil. Keywords: land surface modelling; hydrological modelling; atmospheric climate models; subgrid variability; Baltic Basin

Familial and hereditary prostate cancer in southern Sweden. A population-based case–control study

The objectives of this study were to investigate the effect of family history on prostate cancer risk, to estimate the incidence of hereditary prostate cancer in southern Sweden and to assess the reliability of self-reported family history of prostate cancer. The study included consecutive prostate cancer patients and age-matched control subjects from a geographically defined population. The controls consisted of 1 male patient with malignant melanoma or non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and 1 male from the community per prostate cancer case. Family history was assessed with questionnaires, and diagnoses of fathers and brothers of cases were validated by the Southern Swedish Regional Tumour Registry. Among fathers and brothers whose names and birth dates were available, 56 (92%) of the 61 reported prostate cancer diagnoses were verified. Fifteen per cent of 356 cases and 5.0% of 712 controls reported at least 1 case of prostate cancer among their brothers or fathers, giving a relative risk of 3.2 (95% confidence interval 2.1–5.1). The relative risk increased with decreasing age at diagnosis of the patient. Based on the pedigree, 3.1% of the 356 patients were classified as having hereditary prostate cancer. This proportion was significantly higher among patients diagnosed before the age of 60 years (7.1%) than among older patients (2.2%). We conclude that there is a substantially increased risk of prostate cancer for sons and brothers of prostate cancer patients. The risk increases with decreasing age at diagnosis of the patient as an effect of a higher prevalence of hereditary prostate among early onset cases. Furthermore, we found self-reported family history of prostate cancer to be a valid estimate of the true incidence of prostate cancer in fathers and brothers of men with prostate cancer.

Relapse rate, renal survival, and cancer morbidity in patients with Wegener's granulomatosis or microscopic polyangiitis with renal involvement.

Wegener's granulomatosis (WG) and microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) are both frequently associated with antineutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibodies (ANCA). Immunosuppressive treatment has dramatically improved outcome for these patients, but today we have to deal with the problems of relapses, cases refractory to treatment, and long-term side effects of therapy. This study comprises a consecutive series of 123 patients with WG (n=56) or MPA (n=67) with biopsy-confirmed renal involvement, followed up for a median of 55 mo (range, 0.1 to 273.2 mo). ANCA was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 97% of patients. Nearly half of the patients (46%) relapsed. There was no statistically significant difference in overall relapse rate according to type of ANCA. Renal survival was 78% in patients alive at the end of follow-up. Three variables seemed important for renal survival: serum creatinine, the titer of proteinase 3-ANCA measured by capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and B thrombocyte count, at time of referral. Cancer incidence data were obtained from the population-based South Swedish Regional Tumor Registry. Standardized morbidity ratio was calculated using expected values from the health care region. We found an 11-fold increase in risk for bladder cancer in patients treated with cyclophosphamide for at least 12 mo. Skin carcinoma had the strongest relationship with azathioprine use for at least 12 mo and with corticosteroid therapy for at least 48 mo. In addition, four patients developed myelodysplastic syndrome and five had carcinoma in situ of the skin. Because the therapeutic regimen used today is not efficient enough to prevent relapses and is associated with a host of side effects, of which the risk for cancer is by far the most important, improved therapy and medical care are needed for patients with WG and MPA.

Firm Size and Rate of Growth

Firm Size and Rate of Growth