Earthquake Swarm Research Articles

Magma intrusion process during pre-magmatic period (2010−2013) of Sinabung volcano as revealed by seismicity of volcano-tectonic and hybrid earthquakes

Sinabung volcano in Indonesia reactivated, with a series of phreatic eruptions, in August and September 2010. These eruptions were followed by various types of magmatic eruption at the summit, including lava dome growth, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, and vulcanian eruptions, starting in December 2013. Prior to the magmatic eruptions, Sinabung exhibited two sequences of phreatic eruption and an increase in the seismicity of volcanic earthquakes. This study clarifies the progress of magma intrusion during the pre-magmatic period based on the hypocenter distribution, waveform similarity, seismic moment, rupture length, and stress drop for volcano-tectonic (VT) and hybrid earthquakes. It was found that the hypocenters of VT earthquakes are distributed north and northwest of the summit at a depth range of 1–10 km below sea level. Deep seismicity (4–10 km) alternated with shallow seismicity (2–4 km). The last shallow seismicity, from July to mid-December 2013, was different from previous seismicity in terms of higher intensity, as determined from the seismic moment, a temporary increase in the rupture length, and the migration of hypocenters towards the summit. The seismicity of VT earthquakes was altered by a swarm of hybrid earthquakes in mid-December. The hybrid earthquakes were smaller, in terms of seismic moment (mostly <3 × 1010 Nm), than the VT earthquakes. Their hypocenters were concentrated in the shallowest depth range (−0.5 to 1.5 km below sea level) directly below the summit, their source process was repeatable (they could be grouped into six earthquake families), their dominant peak was in a low-frequency range (2.5–4.5 Hz), and they had a relatively low stress drop (<0.15 MPa). This suggests that the swarm of hybrid earthquakes was induced by a frequent repeated fracture of fluid-filled cracks due to the intrusion of magma up to directly below the summit. The transition of the earthquake family and the change in its source parameters, namely an increase in the stress drop prior to the appearance of a lava dome and then a slight decrease, may reflect a gradual change in internal pressure in the hypocentral zone through the magma intrusion process.

Monitoring hydrothermal fumaroles in the Azores archipelago - Applications and sources of analytical uncertainties

The Azores archipelago is located in the North Atlantic Ocean and is formed by nine volcanic islands. Present-day volcanic activity in the archipelago comprises not only seismic swarms and episodes of ground deformation in some volcanoes, but also hydrothermal gas manifestations. The main fumaroles are associated with central quiescent volcanoes and have been sampled in the past decade through the Giggenbach methodology. Analysis of the fumarolic fluids from four volcanic systems in São Miguel, Terceira, and Graciosa islands are displayed for the period between July 2015 and February 2023. No significant changes have been observed both on the selected gas ratios (CO2/CH4, H2/CH4, He/CH4, He/CO2, and H2/Ar), and on the equilibrium temperatures estimated for the reservoirs feeding the fumaroles using the H2/Ar gas geothermometer, what is in agreement with the dormant state of activity of the studied volcanic systems. Equilibrium temperatures ranging between 223 °C and 262 °C are estimated for Fogo and Furnas fumarolic fields (São Miguel Island), and an average equilibrium temperature of 254 °C is inferred for Terceira fumaroles. This study also suggests a procedure based on established guidelines to evaluate the analytical uncertainties of the methodologies associated with the Giggenbach sampling strategy. Comparison of the analytical uncertainties with the overall data variation (including additional natural variations and sampling uncertainty), shows that the analytical uncertainties are not the limiting factor for the interpretation of the survey results.

Mid-ocean ridge unfaulting revealed by magmatic intrusions.

Mid-ocean ridges (MORs) are quintessential sites of tectonic extension1-4, at which divergence between lithospheric plates shapes abyssal hills that cover about two-thirds of the Earth's surface5,6. Here we show that tectonic extension at the ridge axis can be partially undone by tectonic shortening across the ridge flanks. This process is evidenced by recent sequences of reverse-faulting earthquakes about 15 km off-axis at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and Carlsberg Ridge. Using mechanical models, we show that shallow compression of the ridge flanks up to the brittle failure point is a natural consequence of lithosphere unbending away from the axial relief. Intrusion of magma-filled fractures, which manifests as migrating swarms of extensional seismicity along the ridge axis, can provide the small increment of compressive stress that triggers reverse-faulting earthquakes. Through bathymetric analyses, we further find that reverse reactivation of MOR normal faults is a widely occurring process that can reduce the amplitude of abyssal hills by as much as 50%, shortly after they form at the ridge axis. This 'unfaulting' mechanism exerts a first-order influence on the fabric of the global ocean floor and provides a physical explanation for reverse-faulting earthquakes in an extensional environment.

Dynamic Triggering of Earthquakes in Northeast Japan before and after the 2011 M 9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

ABSTRACT Previous studies documented a relative scarcity of remote dynamic triggering of earthquakes in Japan and suggested that it could be related to Japan’s predominantly compressive tectonic regime or the more frequent occurrence of large earthquakes in Japan. For example, remote triggering in California, characterized by extensional tectonics, occurs at levels of stress change as small as 0.1 kPa, whereas in Japan, transient stresses ≥30 kPa are required. However, the dynamic triggering threshold in Japan, following the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake, has been found to be of just a few kilopascals, significantly smaller than reported previously. It was proposed that a decrease in the triggering threshold may have taken place in Japan, in particular at volcanic and geothermal areas, after the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In this study, we analyze the possible change in dynamic triggering conditions in five areas in northeast Japan, where swarm earthquakes have occurred immediately after the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The triggering thresholds in these five areas have been estimated based on the analysis of waveform recordings of 49 teleseismic earthquakes that occurred between 2004 and 2020. A decrease of the triggering threshold (or triggering ability) is apparent in all but one region. However, a statistical significance Kolmogorov–Smirnov test could not reject, at a 5% level, the null hypothesis stating that “the distribution of dynamic stress changes for triggering earthquakes that occurred before and after the Tohoku-Oki event is the same.” We interpret the changes in the triggering threshold to be related to the pore pressure increase (and thus a fault strength decrease) in the crust following the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Our results also indicate that dynamic triggering in Japan is more common than reported previously.

CALDERA: a scientific drilling concept to unravel Connections Among Life, geo-Dynamics and Eruptions in a Rifting Arc caldera, Okataina Volcanic Centre, Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract. Silicic caldera volcanoes present major volcanic and seismic hazards but also host dynamic hydrothermal and groundwater systems and a rich but largely unexplored subsurface biosphere. Many of these volcanoes are hosted in rift settings. The intricate connections and feedbacks among magmatism, rifting, hydrothermal processes, and the biosphere in these complex systems remain poorly understood, necessitating subsurface joint observations that are only enabled by scientific drilling. The CALDERA (Connections Among Life, geo-Dynamics and Eruptions in a Rifting Arc caldera) project workshop funded by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) gathered multi-disciplinary international experts in January 2023 to advance planning of a scientific drilling project within one of these dynamic, rift-hosted calderas, the Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC), Aotearoa New Zealand. The OVC's high eruption rate, frequent unrest events and earthquake swarms, location in a densely faulted rapidly extending rift, abundant groundwater–geothermal fluid circulations, and diverse surface hot spring microbiota make it an ideal location for exploring a connected geo-hydro-biosphere via scientific drilling and developing a test bed for novel volcano monitoring approaches. Drilling configurations with at least two boreholes (∼ 200 and ∼ 1000–1500 m deep) were favoured to achieve the multi-disciplinary objectives of the CALDERA project. Decadal monitoring including biosphere activity and composition has the potential to evaluate the response of the hydro-bio system to volcano-tectonic activity. In addition to the OVC caldera-scale datasets already available, site surveys will be conducted to select the best drilling locations. The CALDERA project at the OVC would provide, for the first time, an understanding of volcanic–tectonic–hydrological–biological connections in a caldera–rift system and a baseline for global comparisons with other volcanoes, rifts, and hydrothermal systems. CALDERA would serve as an unprecedented model system to understand how and how quickly the subsurface biosphere responds to geologic activities. Discoveries will improve assessment of volcanic and seismic hazards, guide the sustainable management and/or conservation of groundwater and geothermal resources and microbial ecosystems, and provide a forum for interweaving mātauranga Māori and Western knowledge systems.

The 2020 and 2021 Seismic Swarms in the Tancítaro-Paricutín Area (Uruapan- Michoacán, México) Evidence Magma Intrusion in an Area with High Density of Monogenetic Cones

The Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field (MGVF) in central-western Mexico, with more than 1,000 monogenetic volcanoes, has been well known since 1943 when an eruption formed the Paricutín volcano, 11 km to the NW of the summit of Tancítaro stratovolcano. In the highly fractured zone around Tancítaro, referred to as the Paricutín-Tancítaro region (PTR), two major seismic swarms have been recorded, the first between January 5 and February 22, 2020, and the second between May 30 and July 22, 2021. The Mexican National Seismological Service (SSN) reported a total of 4,956 earthquakes with coda magnitudes between 2.6 and 4.2. With the aim to determine the causes of the swarms and the potential hazard they may pose on the region, we first analyze their spatial distributions by relocating all of the events using the Double Difference method and testing different 1-D velocity models to select the one with the lowest residual errors. Secondly, we analyze the temporal distributions finding that their temporal occurrence fits a Mogi’s type 3 volcanic seismic swarm. We conclude that each swarm is due to stresses induced by dike-fed intrusions of moderate volumes of magma in a pre-existing temporal magma reservoir, probably a sill.

Teleseismic Indication of Magmatic and Tectonic Activities at Slow- and Ultraslow-Spreading Ridges

Magmatic and tectonic processes in the formation of oceanic lithosphere at slow–ultraslow-spreading mid-ocean ridges (MORs) are more complicated relative to faster-spreading ridges, as their melt flux is overall low, with highly spatial and temporal variations. Here, we use the teleseismic catalog of magnitudes over 4 between 1995 and 2020 from the International Seismological Center to investigate the characteristics of magmatic and tectonic activities at the ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge and Arctic Gakkel Ridge and the slow-spreading North Mid-Atlantic Ridge and Carlsberg Ridge (total length of 14,300 km). Using the single-link cluster analysis technique, we identify 78 seismic swarms (≥8 events), 877 sequences (2–7 events), and 3543 single events. Seismic swarms often occur near the volcanic center of second-order segments, presumably relating to relatively robust magmatism. By comparing the patterns of seismicity between ultraslow- and slow-spreading ridges, and between melt-rich and melt-poor regions of the Southwest Indian Ridge with distinct seafloor morphologies, we demonstrate that a lower spreading rate and a lower melt supply correspond to a higher seismicity rate and a higher potential of large volcano-induced seismic swarms, probably due to a thicker and colder lithosphere with a higher degree of along-axis melt focusing there.

Developing significant earthquake damage scenarios following the July 2018 earthquake swarm in the Sea of Galilee area near the Dead Sea Fault

Developing significant earthquake damage scenarios following the July 2018 earthquake swarm in the Sea of Galilee area near the Dead Sea Fault

Overview of Fault Zones Based on Remote Sensing Data as Contribution to the Safety of Infrastructure and Land Use in Southern Egypt

Part of a requisite for natural hazard awareness and damage prevention in Egypt is the detailed monitoring of surface fault zones. The inventory of active faults and their risk assessment is an essential contribution to the safety of settlements, land use and infrastructure (railroads, highways, pipelines) and to damage prevention. Thus, this study aims to contribute to the detection, inventory, and documentation of fault zones. Surface faulting hazard assessment considers any surface consequences caused by surface near faults such as abrupt horizontal and vertical displacements and rotations, or mass movements after stronger earthquakes. Long-term, aseismic, slow-creeping movements along fault zones have to be considered as well. Southern Egypt offers unique and optimal conditions for the research of fault zones and their different structural expressions and conditions because of the dry desert climate conditions and relatively low human influence on the landscape in extended areas, especially for the investigation of different types of faults, their interactions with each other and the outcropping rocks, and fault-related deformation structures. Volcanic activity has been influenced in the geologic past often by larger fault zones as dike intrusions, volcanic cones and plugs or craters occur concentrated along these zones of weakness facilitating the uprise of magma. Larger fault zones are crossing reservoir areas. Surface water intrusions into deep-seated faults have played a role in triggering earthquake swarms in the reservoir areas during the last decades. Mapping of active faults is not only an important but also a cost-intense task when carried out in the field or when using geodetic and geophysical data. In the scope of this study, fault detection was carried out based on different open-source satellite data (Landsat 8 and 9, Sentinel 2 optical data, Sentinel 1 and ALOSPASAR radar data, and Google Earth and Bing Map high-resolution satellite images) from the southern part of Egypt. Faults were digitized using ArcGIS and QGIS software. An inventory of fault-related structural features (depressions, ridges, rotation structures, etc.) and rift zones was elaborated based on remote sensing data. An overview of different types of faults and their related structures as well as their interactions with their host rock conditions could be achieved. By merging the inventory results with infrastructural and land use data, critical areas with potential damage risk were pointed out.

The 2015 earthquake swarm in the Fentale volcanic complex (FVC): A geohazard risk for Ethiopia's commercial route to the Djibouti port.

We investigate rare seismicity in the neighborhood of the Fentale volcano, main Ethiopian rift that occurred in spring 2015 using data recorded by the Ethiopian Seismic Station Network. Over 1350 earthquakes are located and a seismic swarm is observed to the northeast of Fentale volcano, with the largest earthquake having a magnitude of 4.3 ML. Several VT (volcano-tectonic) and LP (long-period) events are observed in the swarm, indicating that it is induced by magmatic intrusion, consistent with dike-induced deformation in the same area inferred from satellite geodesy. The seismic activity commenced at about 40 km depth and migrated southwestward as it shallowed, towards Fentale volcano, suggesting that the dike feeding system might be influenced by the magma rich Afar Depression further to the northeast rather than the adjacent Fentale volcano. An earlier cluster of seismicity in the same area was recorded by a temporary deployment of seismic stations that ran from November 2001 to January 2003; extensive clusters of less well recorded seismic activity in the region occurred in June 1989, January–February 1981, October–November 2003, and 2004. Such frequent seismicity at the Fentale Volcanic Complex coupled with the adjacent fast-growing Lake Basaka poses an eminent and significant risk to Ethiopia's access to Djibouti port, its most important commercial route. This should be a wakeup call to concerned stakeholders to take precautionary measures by developing risk management and rapid response strategies.

Identifying earthquake swarms at Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand: a machine learning approach

Mt. Ruapehu is an active andesitic stratovolcano, consisting of several peaks with the summit plateau at 2,797 m, making it the tallest active volcano in New Zealand. The extent of the volcano spreads 40 km across with a series of complex faults encompassing almost the entire base of the volcano. A series of earthquakes occurring 20 km west of the summit of Mt. Ruapehu, near the small town of Erua, which preceded the 1995/1996 major volcanic eruption sequence has been proposed as a medium-term precursor for eruptions at Mt. Ruapehu. We use unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithms HDBSCAN and DBSCAN to define anomalous earthquake swarms in the region and determine whether the Erua swarm was unique by identifying key characteristics in space, time and magnitude distribution. HDBSCAN found six spatial cluster zones to the west of Mt. Ruapehu, which have temporal seismic bursts of activity between 1994 and 2023. DBSCAN identified the seismic swarm that preceded the 1995/1996 major eruption, along with one other similar cluster in the same region, which did not coincide with any documented magmatic unrest, suggesting distal seismic swarms at Mt. Ruapehu may not serve as a reliable eruption precursor when observed in isolation. We instead found that earthquake swarms are relatively common at Mt. Ruapehu and the temporal evolution of the earthquake clusters west of Mt. Ruapehu share similar characteristics to seismic swarms identified in other settings related to fluid migration, typical of fault-valve models.

Tremor along the Dead Sea Transform remotely triggered by the 2023 MW7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquake

Tremor signals are weak and emergent, and the physics governing their generation is not well understood. Here, I report on tremor occurring along the Dead Sea Transform (DST), and a microearthquake on the Carmel-Fari’a Fault (CFF), both remotely triggered by the 2023 MW7.6 Kahramanmaraş earthquake. The triggered events location coincides with maxima of long-period velocity gradients, concentrated in the CFF-DST intersection and near a CFF fault-jump. Relative to other remotely triggered tremors, the DST tremor is strong and deficient in high-frequency seismic energy. Furthermore, analysis of several remotely triggered tremor episodes suggests that tremors spectral fall-off rates are not universal. I discuss the seismological attributes that may give rise to these observations in the context of two models. In the first, tremor is produced due to inertial vibrations of a frictionally-controlled oscillator, and in the second it is produced by a swarm of Low-Frequency Earthquakes.

Relation between earthquake swarm activity and tides in the Noto region, Japan

The Noto region in Japan has been experiencing earthquake swarm activity since mid-2018, with repeated rises and falls in activity. Crustal deformation (expansion and uplift) observed there since the end of 2020 has been connected to crustal fluids. Studies in other regions have suggested that tides are related to earthquake swarm activities associated with crustal fluids. Therefore, we investigated whether tides are also involved in the Noto earthquake swarm activity. Our results suggest a tidal correlation only at greater depths in the southern part of the analyzed area (‘region Sd’). There, we inferred that an increase in pore fluid pressure caused by the inflow of deep fluids may have led to a decrease in fault fracture strength, making the local seismicity relatively susceptible to the effects of tidal forces. The significantly high value in region Sd of the scaling parameter b\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$b$$\\end{document} of the Gutenberg–Richter law (describing the earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution) and observed crustal deformation are consistent with this interpretation.Graphical

The Magmatic Patterns Formed by the Interaction of the Hainan Mantle Plume and Lei–Qiong Crust Revealed through Seismic Ambient Noise Imaging

Magmatism on continental lithospheres induced by mantle plumes is more complex compared to oceanic intraplate volcanism owing to the heterogeneous nature of continental crustal and lithospheric structures. Substantial evidence points to the deep-oriented Hainan mantle plume beneath the Lei–Qiong region, the southernmost of the South China block. In this study, we present a detailed shear wave velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle in the Lei–Qiong volcanic region, derived from 3-year seismic data (2016–2018) from 34 stations and the use of the ambient noise tomography method. An evident columnar low-velocity anomaly was imaged in the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the Wushi Sag (WSS), Beibu Gulf, potentially suggesting that the center of either one branch or the entirety of the Hainan mantle plume impacts the crust here. This low-velocity anomaly is overlaid by a local Moho deepening, indicative of underplating beneath the existing crust. The Maanling–Leihuling Volcanic Field (MLVF) in northern Hainan Island, previously considered the center of the hotspot, does not exhibit such distinct velocity anomalies. Instead, subtle lower crustal anomalies beneath the MLVF are linked with the upper mantle low-velocity zone beneath the WSS. Additionally, the high-conductivity bodies beneath the MLVF indicate lateral magma transport. Earthquake swarms and deep-seated seismic events beneath the WSS further support the presence of magmatic processes. This study indicates that in the Lei–Qiong region, the interaction of the continental crust with the mantle plume centered in the WSS results in magma exhibiting both vertical ascent and lateral migration, leading to a dual low-velocity shear wave pattern in the upper crust, which significantly influences the surface volcanic activity.

Examining the Connections Between Earthquake Swarms, Crustal Fluids, and Large Earthquakes in the Context of the 2020–2024 Noto Peninsula, Japan, Earthquake Sequence

AbstractEarthquake swarms are most commonly composed of small‐magnitude earthquakes. However, a recent study by Yoshida, Uchida, et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106023) analyzed a swarm beneath the Noto Peninsula in Japan that, after more than two years of moderate‐magnitude seismicity, triggered the moment magnitude (Mw) 6.2 Suzu mainshock in May 2023. Based on high‐precision earthquake locations and a slip inversion of the mainshock, these authors found that the Mw 6.2 Suzu earthquake occurred on the updip extension of a fault that was active during the swarm, likely driven by increased fluid pressure. After publication of that paper, a much larger and more destructive Mw 7.5 event occurred nearby on 1 January 2024. These events underscore the potential for swarms to be precursors to large, damaging earthquakes. Forecasting the eventual evolution of swarms is currently very challenging but could be aided in the future by new observations and models.

The 2024 Mj 7.6 Noto Peninsula, Japan earthquake caused by the fluid flow in the crust

On January 1, 2024 ​at 16:10:09 JST, an Mj 7.6 earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula in the southern part of the Sea of Japan. This location has been experiencing an earthquake swarm for more than three years. Here, we provide an overview of this earthquake, focusing on the slip distribution of the mainshock and its relationship with the preceding swarm. We also reexamined the source areas of other large earthquakes that occurred around the Sea of Japan in the past and compared them with the Matsushiro earthquake swarm in central Japan from 1964 to 1968. The difference between the Matsushiro earthquake swarm and the Noto earthquake swarm is the surrounding stress field. The Matsushiro earthquake swarm was a strike-slip stress field, so the cracks in the crust were oriented vertically. This allowed fluids seeped from the depths to rise and flow out to the surface. On the other hand, the Noto area was a reverse fault stress field. Therefore, the cracks in the earth's crust were oriented horizontally. Fluids flowing underground in deep areas could not rise and spread over a wide area in the horizontal plane. This may have caused a large amount of fluid to accumulate underground, triggering a large earthquake. Although our proposed mechanism does not take into account other complex geological conditions into consideration, it may provide a simple way to explain why the Noto swarm is followed by a large earthquake while other swarms are not.

EARTHQUAKE SWARMS AS EVIDENCE OF VOLCANO-TECTONIC PROCESSES OF THE SLOWEST SPREADING GAKKEL RIDGE IN THE ARCTIC

Based on the data from the Arctic regional seismic stations, the article presents the results of studying the swarm seismicity of the Gakkel Mid-Ocean Ridge, located in the Arctic Ocean. The active spreading processes of ultraslow ridges with spreading rates of less than 20 mm/yr, which include the Gakkel Ridge, are still poorly understood as compared to the MOR in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, with spreading rates of more than 25 mm/yr. In 2012–2022, there were identified eight swarms: one within the western volcanic segment of the ridge, others – in the eastern volcanic segment. No earthquake swarms were recorded in the central amagmatic segment of the ridge; the recording therein covers primarily single earthquakes and aftershock sequences. Spatially identified swarms are confied to some volcanic centers revealed earlier from the geological and geophysical data during complex expeditions. The ridge segment at coordinates ∼85…∼93° E is characterized by the most intense manifestations of volcanic processes. The spatial distribution of swarms may also indicate potential presence of volcanic structures that have not yet been identified from the geological, geophysical and geomorphological data. In the temporal domain, there can be preliminarily distinguished a 5-year swarm activation cycle, which, however, requires additional verification over a longer time interval. The swarm seismicity of the slowest spreading Gakkel Ridge cannot be described by a simple model of volcanism and magma intrusion into a symmetrical rift; it is rather a result of a complex interaction between diking and faulting with magma transport along the faults with potentially significant seismic activities. There can probably be suggested a regular combination of the processes of volcanic activation and seismotectonic destruction, which is especially pronounced in the locations of transverse faults. The results described in this article expand our understanding of the manifestation of volcano-tectonic processes occurring within the slowest speading Gakkel Mid-Ocean Ridge.

What Is the Effect of Seismic Swarms on Short-Term Seismic Hazard and Gutenberg-Richter b-Value Temporal Variation? Examples from Central Italy, October–November 2023

A seismic hazard can be quantified by using probabilities. Modern seismic forecasting models (e.g., Operational Earthquake Forecasting systems) allow us to quantify the short-term variations in such probabilities. Indeed these probabilities change with time and space, in particular after strong seismic events. However, the short-term seismic hazard could also change during seismic swarms, i.e., a sequence with several small-/medium-sized events. The goal of this work is to quantify these changes, using the Italian Operational Earthquake Forecasting system, and also estimate the variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value. We focus our attention on three seismic swarms that occurred in Central Italy in October–November 2023. Our results indicate that short-term variations in seismic hazard are limited, less than an order of magnitude, and also that b-value variations are not significant. Placing our findings in a more general context, we can state that according to currently available models and catalogs, the occurrence of seismic swarms does not significantly affect the short-term seismic hazard.

Non‐Linear Seismic Velocity Variations Observed During a Seismic Swarm in the Alto Tiberina Low Angle Normal Fault From Ambient Noise Correlation Measurements

AbstractFrom seismic interferometry, we investigate the strain sensitivity to seismic velocity variations related to a seismic swarm activity that occurred in 2013 along the Alto Tiberina low angle normal fault. We compute daily auto‐correlation functions of ambient noise recorded at seismic stations located in the vicinity of the fault over the course of 10 years. Using the stretching technique, we compute daily velocity variations smoothed over a period of 100 days with a time lapse approach. Through the application of an optimization procedure based on synthetic modeling, we separate the non‐tectonic, thermoelastic and rain induced velocity variations, from the tectonic components. Consequently, we unravel a significant velocity drop of 0.033% coinciding with the swarm occurring at seismogenic depth (3–5 km). Additionally, the time evolution of the velocity changes shows a direct relationship with the strain rate rather than the strain indicating a non‐linear behavior of the crust induced by aseismic slip. The deduced strain sensitivity, exhibiting an order of magnitude comparable to that observed within volcanic settings, confirms this non‐linear behavior and suggests the presence of pressurized fluids at depth.

Two Sets of High-Conductivity Systems with Different Scales Reveal the Seismogenic Mechanism of Earthquakes in the Songyuan Area, Northeastern China

To reveal the deep seismogenic environment and mechanism of earthquakes in Songyuan City, Northeastern China, 59 broadband magnetotelluric sites in the Songyuan area were arranged in this study at a spacing of 5 km. In addition, two intersecting magnetotelluric profiles, with a total of 23 measuring sites and a spacing of 2 km, were established near the Ningjiang earthquake swarm. Using a nonlinear conjugate gradient (NLCG) algorithm, resistivity structures in the lithosphere were obtained at different scales using three-dimensional (3D) inversion. The research results show that: a deep high-conductivity system (&lt;10 Ω·m) was identified at 25–85 km depth in the lithosphere under Songyuan, corresponding closely to a region of high heat flow. It is inferred to be the molten material of mantle upwelling. In addition, a shallow high-conductivity system (&lt;10 Ω·m) was identified beneath the Ningjiang earthquake swarm, which is interpreted to correspond to the Fuyu North fault. It is the main seismo-controlling structure of the Ningjiang earthquake swarm. The deep seismogenic environment and seismogenic mechanism of the Ningjiang earthquake swarm can be described as a deep upwelling of molten mantle material, which provides the power source. The deep magma intruded into the lower crust and accumulated, then intruded along faults and fissures, resulting in the activation of the North Fuyu fault and triggering the Ningjiang earthquake. It is attributed to the activation of shallow faults caused by the upwelling of molten mantle material.