Sustained Retreat Research Articles

Scenarios of the Near Future: Sustainable Development, Retreat or Collapse and Regeneration?

The elementary “map of the near future” could consist of three basic scenarios: sustainable development; sustainable retreat; or collapse and regeneration. Sustainable development remains the most serious attempt at finding an answer to the question of how to allow all people and nations to develop and improve their quality of life, while preserving functional ecosystems and a healthy environment for humankind. James Lovelock was the first to articulate the idea that it is too late for sustainable development and that we should strive for sustainable retreat. For Lovelock, the deadliest issue is the ongoing climate change, as it is irreversible and only can be mitigated. Sustainable retreat is hard to enforce politically and difficult to absorb mentally. Collapse of a civilization is a decrease in population size or political, economic, and social complexity over a large area for a long time. The collapse of a society does not usually come in the form of a sudden and apocalyptic downfall. Whether a society collapses or not depends on the society´s response to its problems and its capacity to solve them. A collapse is usually followed by rebirth and regeneration. This is a pattern in nature. Human society has followed a similar trend. Regardless how big a crisis is, it always presents an opportunity for catharsis and hope for a new beginning. However, there is no guarantee of the results.

Statutory Interpretation after PRCBC and O v SSHD: Should we ‘Waste the Court’s Time a Great Deal Less in Looking at Background Material’?

The issue of statutory interpretation, and the assistance to be gleaned in that process from pre-legislative and Parliamentary materials, has been on the minds of various Supreme Court justices in recent times. The recent judgment in Project for the Registration of Children as British Citizens and O contains important warnings for practitioners wishing to rely on these materials but, furthermore, highlights what appears to be a sustained retreat from a more purposive, contextual style of interpretation into a more strictly literal approach. Such a trend would be constitutionally concerning, particularly at this time of legislative overhaul.

Widespread Grounding Line Retreat of Totten Glacier, East Antarctica, Over the 21st Century

AbstractTotten Glacier (TG), the primary ice discharger of East Antarctica, contains 3.85 m sea level rise equivalent (SLRe) ice mass and has displayed ocean‐driven dynamic change since at least the early 2000s. We project TG's evolution through 2100 in an asynchronously coupled ice‐ocean model, forced at the ocean boundaries with anomalies in CMIP6 projected temperature, salinity, and velocity. Consistent with previous studies, the Antarctic Slope Current continues to modulate warm water inflow toward TG in future simulations. Warm water (−0.5 – C) accesses TG's sub‐ice shelf cavity through depressions along the eastern ice front, driving sustained retreat of TG's eastern grounding zone that cannot be captured in uncoupled models. In high emission scenarios, warm water overcomes topographic barriers and dislodges TG's southern grounding zone around 2070, increasing the rate of grounded ice loss 3.5‐fold (10–35 Gt/yr) and resulting in a total 4.20 mm SLRe loss by 2100.

Linear response of the Greenland ice sheet's tidewater glacier terminus positions to climate

AbstractGaining knowledge of tidewater glacier (TWG) margin evolution, solid ice flux and their responses to climate over large spatio-temporal scales provides valuable context for the projection of future Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) change. Although studies of sector-wide responses of TWGs exist, studies at an ice-sheet-wide scale have only just become feasible. Here, we present a dataset of 224 annual TWG margins for 1984–2017 (n= 3801), showing that averaged over regional scales, normalised terminus change is linear. Regionally linear retreat trends were identified across most sectors of the GrIS starting in the mid-1990s, although in contrast to previous studies, the northeastern sector is shown to have experienced sustained retreat since the mid-1980s. Through cointegration analyses, individual glaciers are shown to have differing sensitivities to potential climate drivers, though on a sector-wide scale the northwest and southeast are shown to be especially sensitive to annual sea surface temperature and June–July–August air temperature, respectively. Although 92% of the analysed glaciers experience retreat across the GrIS, observed increases in absolute flux for the entire ice sheet can be explained by changes in just 11 of these TWGs.

From Sustainable Development to Sustainable Retreat, Brundtland to Lovelock: what has Africa in it?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper was to show that James Lovelock proposed “Sustainable Retreat” opposed to the UN Predatory Sustainable Development doesn’t fit the African ecology and development, African ecology as well as others of less developed and developing countries are preys to coalition UN-Sustainable Development. It tries to answer the question: What has African ecology in sustainable development/retreat?
 Methodology: Using the archaeologico-critical method, this paper traces, evaluates the history of sustainable development/retreat and show cases the possibility of an African “special development/technology status” in a new sustainable development which is ecology-centered.
 Findings: Findings show that first, concerning Lovelock’s Sustainable Retreat, Africa is still at embryonic phase of its development/technology so it cannot be put into the industrialized nations’ policy of sustainable development/retreat. Secondly, the UNO-born Sustainable Development/Technology which emerged with the UN Brundtland’s commanded Report of 1987 is a bluff at the service of hyper neoliberal forces (market forces). Furthermore, to show that “Business as usual” follows its normal trend under the auspices of an accomplice UN-Sustainable Development accords and goals while the ecological macro equilibrium of the planet deteriorates. This masked coalition Sustainable Development-neoliberal forces has pushed industrialization technology too far to the point where if it is not halted and retreated the planet’s ecological equilibrium will crash.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The unique contribution of this paper to theory is transcending sustainable development/retreat and forging a new development set up that fits the African ecology. The recommendations are such that the UN-Sustainable Development pyramid domination of economy over social and environment is inversed and that the social, environment dominate the economy and finally that the special status is void of the idea of Africa as “depot of raw material”, nations’ dependency on ecological resources as principal source of income and the formation of local, national and regional African “tug of war” with predatory international neoliberal forces.

Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws

Abstract. Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica, has experienced rapid, potentially irreversible grounding line retreat and mass loss in response to enhanced ice shelf melting. Results from recent numerical models suggest a large spread in the evolution of the glacier in the coming decades to a century. It is therefore important to investigate how different approximations of the ice stress balance, parameterizations of basal friction and ice shelf melt parameterizations may affect projections. Here, we simulate the evolution of TG using ice sheet models of varying levels of complexity, different basal friction laws and ice shelf melt to quantify their effect on the projections. We find that the grounding line retreat and its sensitivity to ice shelf melt are enhanced when a full-Stokes model is used, a Budd friction is used and ice shelf melt is applied on partially floating elements. Initial conditions also impact the model results. Yet, all simulations suggest a rapid, sustained retreat of the glacier along the same preferred pathway. The fastest retreat rate occurs on the eastern side of the glacier, and the slowest retreat occurs across a subglacial ridge on the western side. All the simulations indicate that TG will undergo an accelerated retreat once the glacier retreats past the western subglacial ridge. Combining all the simulations, we find that the uncertainty of the projections is small in the first 30 years, with a cumulative contribution to sea level rise of 5 mm, similar to the current rate. After 30 years, the contribution to sea level depends on the model configurations, with differences up to 300 % over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm.

Dlouhodobě udržitelný rozvoj, udržitelný ústup, nebo rozvrat?

More than forty years ago Man landed on the Moon. On the other hand people in poor countries are starving to death until now. The environment is degraded or even devastated in many regions, biodiversity is decreasing. We need a daring vision of what to do next. And maybe more than that. We need to search for and find “will to meaning” (according to founder of logotherapy, Viktor Frankl). Almost 25 years ago vision of sustainable development was first published in the UN report “Our Common Future”. Question remains, how vital and perspective is this vision in present multipolar world. In the past we learned from our former experience and mistakes. Today, in the era of huge scientific and technological development, we need new model of learning. We need to learn from our future potential opportunities as well as threats, not just from the past. It also includes possibility, that our effort to formulate and implement sustainable development will not succeed. Then alternative to sustainable development is sustainable retreat. And even darker scenario is possible – chaos and anarchy. We can already see this in some failed states (Somalia, Haiti). In such case key challenge would be to keep and preserve principal knowledge and skills accumulated by civilized societes during former decades and centuries for future generations.

The sensitivity of West Antarctica to the submarine melting feedback

AbstractWe use an ice sheet model with realistic initial conditions to forecast how the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica responds to recently observed rates of submarine melting. In these simulations, we isolate the effects of a positive feedback, driven by submarine melt in new ocean cavities flooded during retreat, by allowing the present climate, calving front and melting beneath existing ice shelves to persist over the 21st century. Even without additional forcing from changes in climate, ice shelf collapse, or ice cliff collapse, the model predicts slow, sustained retreat of West Antarctica, driven by the marine ice sheet instability and current levels of ocean‐driven melting. When observed rates of melting are included in new subglacial ocean cavities, the simulated sea level contribution increases, and for sufficiently intense melting it accelerates over time. Conditional Bayesian probabilities for sea level contributions can be derived but will require improved predictions of ocean heat delivery.

Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

Abstract. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise.

Seasonal to multiyear variability of glacier surface velocity, terminus position, and sea ice/ice mélange in northwest Greenland

AbstractGlacier ice discharge, which depends on ice velocity and terminus fluctuations, is a primary component of Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss. Some research suggests that ice mélange influences terminus calving, in turn affecting glacier velocity. The details and broad spatiotemporal consistency of these relationships, however, is undetermined. Focusing on 16 northwestern Greenland glaciers during 2009 through summer 2014, we examined seasonal surface velocity changes, glacier terminus position, and sea ice and ice mélange conditions. For a longer‐term analysis, we also produced extended records of four glaciers from 1999 to 2014. There is a strong correspondence between seasonal near‐terminus sea ice/mélange conditions and terminus change, with rigid ice mélange conditions associated with advance and open water associated with retreat. Extended sea ice‐free periods and reduced rigid mélange are also linked with anomalously large terminus retreat. In all but one case, sustained multiyear retreat of greater than 1 km during both the 15 year and 6 year records was accompanied by interannual velocity increases. Seasonal velocity patterns, however, correspond more strongly with runoff changes than terminus behavior. Projections of continued warming and longer sea ice‐free periods around Greenland indicate that notable retreat over wide areas may continue. This sustained retreat likely will contribute to multiyear speedup. Longer melt seasons and earlier breakup of mélange may also alter the timing of seasonal ice flow variability.

Basal topographic controls on rapid retreat of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland

AbstractDischarge from marine-terminating outlet glaciers accounts for up to half the recent mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet, yet the causal factors are not fully understood. Here we assess the factors controlling the behaviour of Humboldt Glacier (HG), allowing us to evaluate the influence of basal topography on outlet glacier response to external forcing since part of HG’s terminus occupies a large overdeepening. HG’s retreat accelerated dramatically after 1999, coinciding with summer atmospheric warming of up to 0.19°C a–1 and sea-ice decline. Retreat was an order of magnitude greater in the northern section of the terminus, underlain by a major basal trough, than in the southern section, where the bedrock is comparatively shallow. Velocity change following retreat was spatially non-uniform, potentially due to a pinning point near HG’s northern lateral margin. Consistent with observations, numerical modelling demonstrates an order-of-magnitude greater sensitivity to sea-ice buttressing and crevasse depth (used as a proxy for atmospheric warming) in the northern section. The trough extends up to 72 km inland, so it is likely to facilitate sustained retreat and ice loss from HG during the 21st century.

Sustainable Development within Planetary Boundaries: A Functional Revision of the Definition Based on the Thermodynamics of Complex Social-Ecological Systems

The dominant paradigm of sustainable development (SD) where the environment is just the third pillar of SD has proven inadequate to keep humanity within the safe operational space determined by biophysical planetary boundaries. This implies the need for a revised definition compatible with a nested model of sustainable development, where humanity forms part of the overall social-ecological system, and that would allow more effective sustainable development goals and indicators. In this paper an alternative definition is proposed based on the thermodynamics of open systems applied to ecosystems and human systems. Both sub- systems of the global social-ecological system show in common an increased capability of buffering against disturbances as a consequence of an internal increase of order. Sustainable development is considered an optimization exercise at different scales in time and space based on monitoring the change in the exergy content and exergy dissipation of these two sub- systems of the social-ecological system. In common language it is the increase of human prosperity and well-being without loss of the structure and functioning of the ecosystem. This definition is functional as it allows the straightforward selection of quantitative indicators, discerning sustainable development from unsustainable development, unsustainable stagnation and sustainable retreat. The paper shows that the new definition is compatible with state of the art thinking on ecosystem services, the existence of regime shifts and societal transitions, and resilience. One of the largest challenges in applying the definition is our insufficient understanding of the change in ecosystem structure and function as an endpoint indicator of human action, and its effect on human prosperity and well-being. This implies the continued need to use midpoint indicators of human impact and related thresholds defining the safe operating space of the present generation with respect to future generations. The proposed definition can be considered a valuable complement to the recently emerged nested system discourse of sustainable development, by offering a more quantitative tool to monitor and guide the transition of human society towards a harmonious relationship with the rest of the biosphere.

Sustained retreat of the Pine Island Glacier

AbstractWe use satellite observations to show that, between 1992 and 2011, the Pine Island Glacier hinge line retreated at a rate of 0.95 ± 0.09 km yr−1 despite a progressive steepening and shoaling of the glacier surface and bedrock slopes, respectively, which ought to impede retreat. The retreat has remained constant because the glacier terminus has thinned at an accelerating rate of 0.53 ± 0.15 m yr−2, with comparable changes upstream. This acceleration is consistent with an intensification of ocean‐driven melting in the cavity beneath the floating section of the glacier. The pattern of hinge‐line retreat meanders and is concentrated in isolated regions until ice becomes locally buoyant. Because the glacier‐ocean system does not appear to have reached a position of relative stability, the lower limit of sea level projections may be too conservative.

After Rio+20: Preparing for Sustainable Retreat?

Abstract The industrial age has brought us much good: a higher quality of life which is reflected in better healthcare and education, a longer life expectancy etc. But besides the indisputable benefits, the industrial age has also caused many problems which are now assuming global proportions. In 1987 UN Commission on Environment and Development attempted to propose how to enable people and whole nations to develop while sustaining functioning ecosystems and healthy environment. The key term became “sustainable development”. But problem with sustainable development concept is that it is so vague and “all-embracing”. Its biggest deficiency is the fact that it fails to attempt to even define human needs. The United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20 conference, June 2012) did not change current unsustainable development trends. Therefore we should allow for and ponder the possibility that effort at sustainable development will fail and the human community will experience great civilization turbulence. Maybe it is too late for sustainable development, what we need is a sustainable retreat. Our abilities are limited and promoting sustainable development may prove to be beyond us. In comparison with our ancestors we have much greater opportunities. But this has not been counterbalanced by greater responsibility and foresight. We should explore and study future opportunities and dangers that could occur under certain conditions. These images of possible futures may help to make our present decisions more qualified and responsible.

Glacier volume‐area relation for high‐order mechanics and transient glacier states

Glacier volume is known for less than 0.1% of the world's glaciers, but this information is needed to quantify the impacts of glacier changes on global sea level and regional water resources. Observations indicate a power‐law relation between glacier area and volume, with an exponentγ≈ 1.36. Through numerical simulations of 3D, high‐order glacier mechanics, we demonstrate how different topographic and climatic settings, glacier flow dynamics, and the degree of disequilibrium with climate systematically affect the volume‐area relation. We recommend more accurate scaling relations through characterization of individual glacier shape, slope and size. An ensemble of 280 randomly‐generated valley glaciers spanning a spectrum of plausible glaciological conditions yields a steady‐state exponentγ= 1.46. This declines to 1.38 for glaciers that are 100 years into a sustained retreat, which corresponds exceptionally well with the observed value for present‐day glaciers.

No Limits to Growth

Prophets of doom are everywhere. We are headed for global catastrophe: climate change, population growth, shortages of water, deforestation, food shortages, and the end of oil are all converging to destroy the planet and modern human civilization as we have known it! We must stop economic growth in order to “save the planet” and survive as a species! There are even calls to “de-develop.” James Lovelock (of Gaia fame) has said, “The whole idea of sustainable development is wrongheaded. We should be thinking about sustainable retreat.” 1 Environmental activist George Monbiot says that the campaign against climate change “is a campaign not for abundance but for austerity; not for more freedom but for less… It is a campaign not just against other people, but against ourselves.” 2 We must forgo our growth fetish and addiction to unfettered consumerism and embrace the halcyon simplicity of years gone by, in his view. Monbiot says this policy must be achieved by “political restraint”—i.e., enforced by the police power of the state; in effect criminalizing innovation and creativity. American consumer capitalism is claimed to be a luxury that the Earth’s ecosystem cannot sustain. We are already at one-and-a-half times the carrying capacity of the planet, and the rate of environmental degradation is increasing. We must change the habits of the developed world and disabuse billions in the undeveloped world of their ambition to emulate the West. Such calls for simplicity are often made by celebrities with seven-figure incomes, or by tenured academics and NGO groupies with six-figure incomes who supplement their earnings with books and speaking tours. However, the “wretched of the Earth” in the developing world already living in “halcyon simplicity,” and the working and middle classes of the developed world struggling not to slide back into such “simplicity” are less enchanted by this eco-romanticism. The middle class will not give up its lifestyle and the non-middle class will not cease striving to become middle class. Having lived and traveled widely in pre-consumerist societies, I can attest to how culturally barren and harsh the life of the vast majority of people in these societies is. The collapse of Communism, as well as the “Arab Spring,” reflects the collective scream for escape from such a barren environment. History matters! It teaches us that prophets of doom from Malthus to Ehrlich to the Club of Rome have been proven wrong time after time by that “infinite resource”: the human mind. This essay will challenge the assumptions of the “catastrophe industry.” It will show that growth in value (of GDP) is not synonymous with growth in the volume of raw materials—that we can grow value while using less of our natural resources; and that the wealth of nations can increase as the human burden on the carrying capacity of the planet decreases.

Seaweed Communities in Retreat from Ocean Warming

In recent decades, global climate change [1] has caused profound biological changes across the planet [2-6]. However, there is a great disparity in the strength of evidence among different ecosystems and between hemispheres: changes on land have been well documented through long-term studies, but similar direct evidence for impacts of warming is virtually absent from the oceans [3, 7], where only a few studies on individual species of intertidal invertebrates, plankton, and commercially important fish in the North Atlantic and North Pacific exist. This disparity of evidence is precarious for biological conservation because of the critical role of the marine realm in regulating the Earth's environmental and ecological functions, and the associated socioeconomic well-being of humans [8]. We interrogated a database of >20,000 herbarium records of macroalgae collected in Australia since the 1940s and documented changes in communities and geographical distribution limits in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans, consistent with rapid warming over the past five decades [9, 10]. We show that continued warming might drive potentially hundreds of species toward and beyond the edge of the Australian continent where sustained retreat is impossible. The potential for global extinctions is profound considering the many endemic seaweeds and seaweed-dependent marine organisms in temperate Australia.

A simple model for the influence of push-morainal banks on the calving and stability of glacial tidewater termini

AbstractPush-morainal banks at the grounding lines of tidewater termini of temperate glaciers are the source of two types of restraining forces operating at the glacier terminus. Horizontal normal forces derive from the lateral support and transport of the bank of sediment at the terminus, whereas a horizontal shear force operates along the base of a bank pushed in front of an advancing glacier. The simple model we present suggests that bank-related restraining forces are significantly larger than the restraining force derived from the hydrostatic pressure of water adjacent to the submerged terminus of a glacier. During glacier advance, restraining forces continually increase, resulting in decreasing flow rates, glacier thickening and the eventual cessation of advance. During retreat, restraining forces continually decrease, resulting in increasing flow rates, glacier thinning and the potential for unstable, rapid, sustained retreat. The normal, seasonal, oscillatory advance retreat cycle of a glacier is moderated by restraining forces associated with push moraines. Unstable retreat is likely initiated when bank-related restraining forces fall below some threshold value during the seasonal retreat cycle. Calving is not a primary cause of glacier retreat, but is more likely a short-term response to increased flow rates. Increased flow rates result in glacier thinning and an approach toward buoyancy, both of which fluctuate seasonally in accordance with bank-related restraining forces.

A simple model for the influence of push-morainal banks on the calving and stability of glacial tidewater termini

AbstractPush-morainal banks at the grounding lines of tidewater termini of temperate glaciers are the source of two types of restraining forces operating at the glacier terminus. Horizontal normal forces derive from the lateral support and transport of the bank of sediment at the terminus, whereas a horizontal shear force operates along the base of a bank pushed in front of an advancing glacier. The simple model we present suggests that bank-related restraining forces are significantly larger than the restraining force derived from the hydrostatic pressure of water adjacent to the submerged terminus of a glacier. During glacier advance, restraining forces continually increase, resulting in decreasing flow rates, glacier thickening and the eventual cessation of advance. During retreat, restraining forces continually decrease, resulting in increasing flow rates, glacier thinning and the potential for unstable, rapid, sustained retreat. The normal, seasonal, oscillatory advance retreat cycle of a glacier is moderated by restraining forces associated with push moraines. Unstable retreat is likely initiated when bank-related restraining forces fall below some threshold value during the seasonal retreat cycle. Calving is not a primary cause of glacier retreat, but is more likely a short-term response to increased flow rates. Increased flow rates result in glacier thinning and an approach toward buoyancy, both of which fluctuate seasonally in accordance with bank-related restraining forces.

Recession of the southern part of Barnes Ice Cap, Baffin Island, Canada, between 1961 and 1993, determined from digital mapping of Landsat TM

AbstractChanges along the margin of the southern half of the 5900 km2Barnes Ice Cap have been assessed using 1993 Landsat TM imagery in comparison with digitized 1:50 000 NTS maps based on 1961 photogrammetry. The average recession over the 183 km long southern perimeter was found to be at least 4 m a−1, with no significant difference between the southeast and southwest sectors. Viewed in conjunction with the sustained retreat previously reported for the northwest margin, these results indicate that a general reduction in the size of Barnes Ice Cap is occurring. The present retreat phase began under a regional climate warming in the late 19th to early 20th century period and continues, while the record of the ablation-season temperature since the mid-century has not shown any significant trend.