Sustained Drought Research Articles

A Columbia River Basalt Group Aquifer in Sustained Drought: Insight from Geophysical Methods

Aquifers within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) provide a critical water supply throughout much of the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Increased pumping has resulted in water level declines in this region. Recharge into this aquifer system is generally not well understood. Recent suggestions of probable decades-long droughts in the 21st century add to this problem. We show that geophysical methods can provide useful parameters for improved modeling of aquifers in a primary CRBG aquifer located on the eastern edge of the Columbia Plateau. Groundwater models depend in part on the area, thickness, porosity, storativity, and nature of confinement of this aquifer, most of which are poorly constrained by existing well information and previous stress tests. We have made use of surface gravity measurements, borehole gravity measurements, barometric efficiency estimates, earth tidal response, and earthquake seismology observations to constrain these parameters. We show that the aquifer, despite its persistent drawdown, receives a great deal of recharge annually. Much of the recharge to the aquifer is due to leakage from overlying flows, ultimately tied to precipitation, an important result for future aquifer management in times of sustained drought.

Regulation of Water Use in the Southernmost European Fir (Abies pinsapo Boiss.): Drought Avoidance Matters

The current scenario of global warming has resulted in considerable uncertainty regarding the capacity of forest trees to adapt to increasing drought. Detailed ecophysiological knowledge would provide a basis to forecast expected species dynamics in response to climate change. Here, we compare the water balance (stomatal conductance, xylem water potential, needle osmotic adjustment) of Abies pinsapo, a relict drought-sensitive Mediterranean fir, along an altitudinal gradient. We related these variables to soil water and nutrient availability, air temperature, atmospheric water potential, and vapour pressure deficit during two consecutive years. Our results indicate that A. pinsapo closed stomata rapidly over a very narrow range of soil water availability and atmospheric dryness. This isohydric response during water stress suggests that this relict conifer relied on the plant hormone abscisic acid to maintain closed stomata during sustained drought, instead of needle desiccation to passively drive stomatal closure, needle osmotic adjustment or a plastic response of the xylem to different levels of water availability. Both the soil and foliar nutrient contents suggest that the studied populations are not limited by nutrient deficiencies, and drought was stronger in the warmer low-elevation areas.

Long-term response of an herbaceous sward to reduced grazing pressure and rainfall variability in a semi-arid South African savanna

Reduced grazing pressure is expected to promote recovery of degraded semi-arid savanna. Transformation of degraded livestock ranches to a wildlife reserve in 1982 created a system with about one-third of the grazing pressure, which was maintained until 2011. Herbaceous composition and condition were monitored on four occasions between 1982 and 2011. Baseline measurements were taken following eight years of above-average rainfall conditions. Palatable perennial grasses and sward condition deteriorated markedly in response to severe, sustained drought during the early 1990s. Perennial grasses did not respond to a single record high rainfall season (2000) but recovered following a sequence of four above-average years (2008–2011). This monitoring study illustrated that recovery of a degraded semi-arid savanna may require decades of reduced grazing pressure for some degree of recovery in the absence of intervention. An appropriate time frame for management of these systems is in the order of a century.

Comparative Analysis of Sustained Drought Processes in Jiangsu during 1971-2011

By using the monthly precipitation data of Jiangsu province and the NCEP / NCAR monthly reanalysis data,combining with the abnormal precipitation mechanism analysis in Jiangsu province in recently 40 years,the differences betw een the Autumn-Winter-Spring Drought(AWSD) in 2010 /2011 and other three sustained drought processes in recent 40 years in Jiangsu have been studied,respectively. The results show that the drought has maintained for the longest time in 1980 /1981 and been most serious in 2010 /2011. From the perspective of climatic factors,the drought grade of the troposphere and the intensity of sinking movement have been strong and sustained for a long time. In 1980 /1981 and 2010 /2011,potential height field presented high pressure in the west and low pressure in the east on 500 h Pa,which is beneficial to East Asia trough enhancement and maintenance. Meanw hile,consistent with the blocking situation in the west Baikal Lake and the stronger winter monsoon,cold air moved southw ard frequently,which blocked the transmission of the south warm air,and made air more drier. SST anomaly distribution displayed as La Nina type. SST anomalies were negative in the east central Pacific around the equator and near the eastern coast in China,while positive in west central Pacific. Such abnormal distribution tended to form ‘east low and west high'in potential height. Compared with the other two sustained drought processes,the drought intensity in 1998 /1999 and 2008 /2009 were slightly weaker,so there were also some differences in atmosphere background field and SST anomaly distribution.

Receding water line and interspecific competition determines plant community composition and diversity in wetlands in Beijing.

Climate and human-induced wetland degradation has accelerated in recent years, not only resulting in reduced ecosystem services but also greatly affecting the composition and diversity of wetland plant communities. To date, the knowledge of the differences in community parameters and their successional trends in degraded wetlands remains scarce. Here based on remote sensing images, geographic information system technology, and statistical methods, we produced a successional gradient map of the Yeyahu Wetland Nature Reserve in Beijing, which has experienced a steady decline in water level in recent decades. In addition, we analyzed community composition and diversity along with each identified gradient. The results showed that community diversity decreases while dominance increases with the progress of succession, with the highest diversity occurring during the early stage of succession. Moreover, the community demonstrates greater similarity among subareas during later successional stages, and the similarity coefficients calculated from the important value (IV) of each species are more accurate. Correlation analysis showed that the impact of soil factors on diversity was not significant at a subarea scale, although these nutrients showed an increasing trend with the community succession. Furthermore, the IVs of the dominant species had a particularly significant impact on diversity, showing a significantly negative correlation with diversity indices and a significantly positive correlation with dominance indices. Further analysis showed that the retreat of water level resulted from sustained drought and local human activities was a major extrinsic driving force resulting in observed differences in the community successional stages, which resulted in differences in community composition and diversity. On the other hand, interspecific competition was the main intrinsic mechanism, which significantly influenced the IVs of the dominant species and community diversity. The results of this study could aid in improving the understanding of community composition, diversity, and its successional trends in degraded wetlands.

Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

With climate change projections indicating a likely future increase in extreme weather phenomena, it is an urgent matter to assess the effect of drought on civil conflict. However, studies of this relationship so far provide inconclusive findings. One reason for this inconsistency is that existing research has not sufficiently taken into account the local vulnerability and coping capacity that condition the effect of drought. In particular, the exposure to sustained droughts undermines alternative coping mechanisms of individuals. Moreover, reliance on rainfed agriculture for income and food provision renders individuals particularly vulnerable to droughts. Based on these observations, I suggest that areas experiencing sustained droughts or depending on rainfed agriculture are more likely to see civil conflict following drought as individuals in these regions are more likely to partake in rebellion in order to redress economic grievances or to obtain food and income. Using novel high-resolution data on civil conflict events in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2008, this paper evaluates the relationship between sustained drought, rainfed agriculture and civil conflict violence at the subnational level. In line with the argument, areas with rainfed croplands see an increased risk of civil conflict violence following drought. There is also some support for the proposition that areas experiencing sustained droughts have a higher risk of conflict. The results are robust to a wide range of model specifications.

Comparative physiological and proteomic analyses of poplar (Populus yunnanensis) plantlets exposed to high temperature and drought.

Plantlets of Populus yunnanensis Dode were examined in a greenhouse for 48 h to analyze their physiological and proteomic responses to sustained heat, drought, and combined heat and drought. Compared with the application of a single stress, simultaneous treatment with both stresses damaged the plantlets more heavily. The plantlets experienced two apparent response stages under sustained heat and drought. During the first stage, malondialdehyde and reactive oxygen species (ROS) contents were induced by heat, but many protective substances, including antioxidant enzymes, proline, abscisic acid (ABA), dehydrin, and small heat shock proteins (sHSPs), were also stimulated. The plants thus actively defended themselves against stress and exhibited few pathological morphological features, most likely because a new cellular homeostasis was established through the collaborative operation of physiological and proteomic responses. During the second stage, ROS homeostasis was overwhelmed by substantial ROS production and a sharp decline in antioxidant enzyme activities, while the synthesis of some protective elements, such as proline and ABA, was suppressed. As a result, photosynthetic levels in P. yunnanensis decreased sharply and buds began to die, despite continued accumulation of sHSPs and dehydrin. This study supplies important information about the effects of extreme abiotic environments on woody plants.

Persistence of pressure patterns over North America and the North Pacific since AD 1500

Changes in moisture delivery to western North America are largely controlled by interrelated, synoptic-scale atmospheric pressure patterns. Long-term records of upper-atmosphere pressure and related circulation patterns are needed to assess potential drivers of past severe droughts and evaluate how future climate changes may impact hydroclimatic systems. Here we develop a tree-ring-based climate field reconstruction of cool-season 500 hPa geopotential height on a 2° × 2° grid over North America and the North Pacific to AD 1500 and examine the frequency and persistence of preinstrumental atmospheric pressure patterns using Self-Organizing Maps. Our results show extended time periods dominated by a set of persistent upper-air pressure patterns, providing insight into the atmospheric conditions leading to periods of sustained drought and pluvial periods in the preinstrumental past. A striking shift from meridional to zonal flow occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age and was sustained for several decades.

Groundwater depletion during drought threatens future water security of the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow of the Colorado River Basin is the most overallocated in the world. Recent assessment indicates that demand for this renewable resource will soon outstrip supply, suggesting that limited groundwater reserves will play an increasingly important role in meeting future water needs. Here we analyze 9 years (December 2004 to November 2013) of observations from the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission and find that during this period of sustained drought, groundwater accounted for 50.1 km3 of the total 64.8 km3 of freshwater loss. The rapid rate of depletion of groundwater storage (−5.6 ± 0.4 km3 yr−1) far exceeded the rate of depletion of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Results indicate that groundwater may comprise a far greater fraction of Basin water use than previously recognized, in particular during drought, and that its disappearance may threaten the long-term ability to meet future allocations to the seven Basin states.

Reliability of ephemeral montane springs in Mojave National Preserve, California

Small springs in mountainous areas provide the only source of water for numerous wildlife species over a broad expanse of the Mojave Desert. A comprehensive inventory and annual surveys over nine years indicated that many such springs occur in canyons and ravines along the slopes and near the base of mountain ranges associated with small, locally recharged, perched aquifers and are drought ephemeral. Within the 643,112 ha study area 135 spring systems consisting of 238 distinct surface water expressions were monitored. Reliability of available surface water was correlated with watershed catchment area and spring brook length. Geologic field mapping of a subset of 39 springs indicated that the area of colluvial sediment above barriers was correlated with persistence of surface water from year to year, but the area of phreatophyte vegetation supported by spring discharge and hydraulic conductivity of the sediment surface were not. Reliable spring discharge through several years of sustained drought depends upon sufficient groundwater storage. Watershed catchment area, spring brook length, and area of colluvial sediment appear to be predictors of discharge persistence during drought for certain types of montane springs.

Climate Suffering

Mitigation and adaptation represent the two main ways the world is responding to climate change. However, a third response is being practiced by the most vulnerable: widespread suffering. No matter how much we mitigate or adapt to climate change, pervasive suffering is inevitable. In fact, it is already being experienced throughout the world. This article reports on interviews conducted with subsistence farmers living on the frontlines of climate change in northern India in the spring of 2013. It relates the ways in which sustained drought and then punishing rains wreaked hardship on the farmers, and the ways farmers endured such challenges. By relating farmers' tales and describing how this experience personally influenced the researcher, the article offers and invites reflection on the many meanings of climate suffering.

Response of plant community structure and primary productivity to experimental drought and flooding in an Alaskan fen

Northern peatlands represent a long-term net sink for atmospheric CO2, but these ecosystems can shift from net carbon (C) sinks to sources based on changing climate and environmental conditions. In particular, changes in water availability associated with climate control peatland vegetation and carbon uptake processes. We examined the influence of changing hydrology on plant species abundance and ecosystem primary production in an Alaskan fen by manipulating the water table in field treatments to mimic either sustained flooding (raised water table) or drought (lowered water table) conditions for 6 years. We found that water table treatments altered plant species abundance by increasing sedge and grass cover in the raised water table treatment and reducing moss cover while increasing vascular green area in the lowered water table treatment. Gross primary productivity was lower in the lowered treatment than in the other plots, although there were no differences in total biomass or vascular net primary productivity among the treatments. Overall, our results indicate that vegetation abundance was more sensitive to variation in water table than total biomass and vascular biomass accrual. Finally, in our experimental peatland, drought had stronger consequences for change in vegetation abundance and ecosystem function than sustained flooding.

A 250-year annual precipitation reconstruction and drought assessment for Cyprus from Pinus brutia Ten. tree-rings

Precipitation around Cyprus, a relatively small island, is generally consistent in year-to-year variation in all dimensions except amplitude, with the higher elevations in the west generally receiving more precipitation. An annual record of precipitation was found in tree-rings of the predominant pine species, Pinus brutia Ten., which grows from the lower foothills up to 1400 m in altitude across the island. Tree-ring chronologies from four sites in west-central Cyprus are used here to reconstruct the annual September to August precipitation and a drought record for AD 1830-2006, with the drought reconstruction extending back to 1756. A minimum of 40% of the variance in annual precipitation and drought occurrence is explained by the variance in the tree-ring widths in all cases. Our drought assessment indicates that, on average, annual droughts occur once every 5 years and sustained droughts, 2-6 years in length, have occurred in small clusters of time, from 1806-1824, 1915-1934 and 1986-2000, when the winter North Atlantic Oscillation was in a predominantly positive phase. These results suggest that a sustained drought period has a mean return time probability of one in 70-100 years. This study provides the first long-term annual precipitation reconstruction and drought assessment at low to mid-elevations for Cyprus and will aid in future plans for drought mitigation.

Carbon dynamics of eucalypt seedlings exposed to progressive drought in elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature

Elevated [CO2] and temperature may alter the drought responses of tree seedling growth, photosynthesis, respiration and total non-structural carbohydrate (TNC) status depending on drought intensity and duration. Few studies have addressed these important climatic interactions or their consequences. We grew Eucalyptus globulus Labill. seedlings in two [CO2] concentrations (400 and 640 μl l(-1)) and two temperatures (28/17 and 32/21 °C) (day/night) in a sun-lit glasshouse, and grew them in well-watered conditions or exposed them to two drought treatments having undergone different previous water conditions (i.e., rewatered drought and sustained drought). Progressive drought in both drought treatments led to similar limitations in growth, photosynthesis and respiration, but reductions in TNC concentration were not observed. Elevated [CO2] ameliorated the impact of the drought during the moderate drought phase (i.e., Day 63 to Day 79) by increasing photosynthesis and enhancing leaf and whole-plant TNC content. In contrast, elevated temperature exacerbated the impact of the drought during the moderate drought phase by reducing photosynthesis, increasing leaf respiration and decreasing whole-plant TNC content. Extreme drought (i.e., Day 79 to Day 103) eliminated [CO2] and temperature effects on plant growth, photosynthesis and respiration. The combined effects of elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature on moderate drought stressed seedlings were reduced with progressive drought, with no sustained effects on growth despite greater whole-plant TNC content.

Two paleoecological histories spanning the period of human settlement in southeastern Brazil

AbstractThe absence of human occupation sites in southeastern Brazil during the mid Holocene has been referred to as the 'Archaic Gap' (8970–1940 cal. a BP) and is predicted to have resulted from increased aridity. A ca. 14 000 cal. a pollen history from two well‐dated lake sediment cores located within the archeological district of Lagoa Santa, in the State of Minas Gerais, southeastern Brazil, was used to test this hypothesis. Our analyses indicated that the present cerrado and tropical semi‐deciduous forest mosaic persisted throughout the mid Holocene, until ca. 5500 cal. a BP, and the Lagoa Santa region did not experience especially dry conditions during the Holocene period. The early Holocene pollen spectra contained an assemblage of cold‐adapted taxa such as Podocarpus, Myrsine and Araucaria, co‐occurring with taxa from cerrado, e.g. Caryocar. A replacement of cold taxa by the modern cerrado–semi‐deciduous forest vegetation took place progressively, but appears to have been completed by the mid Holocene. No evidence of sustained drought was found in sedimentation or forest composition, nor any prolonged dry event in the study region. Holocene dryness as an explanation for the abandonment of Lagoa Santa region is not supported by the palynological analyses conducted in this study. Rather it is suggested that unpredictable climate may have underlain that abandonment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The 2010 spring drought reduced primary productivity in southwestern China

Many parts of the world experience frequent and severe droughts. Summer drought can significantly reduce primary productivity and carbon sequestration capacity. The impacts of spring droughts, however, have received much less attention. A severe and sustained spring drought occurred in southwestern China in 2010. Here we examine the influence of this spring drought on the primary productivity of terrestrial ecosystems using data on climate, vegetation greenness and productivity. We first assess the spatial extent, duration and severity of the drought using precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index. We then examine the impacts of the drought on terrestrial ecosystems using satellite data for the period 2000–2010. Our results show that the spring drought substantially reduced the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) during spring 2010 (March–May). Both EVI and GPP also substantially declined in the summer and did not fully recover from the drought stress until August. The drought reduced regional annual GPP and net primary productivity (NPP) in 2010 by 65 and 46 Tg C yr−1, respectively. Both annual GPP and NPP in 2010 were the lowest over the period 2000–2010. The negative effects of the drought on annual primary productivity were partly offset by the remarkably high productivity in August and September caused by the exceptionally wet conditions in late summer and early fall and the farming practices adopted to mitigate drought effects. Our results show that, like summer droughts, spring droughts can also have significant impacts on vegetation productivity and terrestrial carbon cycling.

추계학적 모의유량을 이용한 한강수계 용수공급시스템의 장기지속가뭄 영향 평가

The Uncertainty of drought events can be regarded as supernatural phenomena so that the uncertainty of water supply system will be also uncontrollable. Decision making for water supply system operation must be dealt with in consideration of hydrologic uncertainty conditions. When ultimate small quantity of precipitation or streamflow lasts, water supply system might be impacted as well as stream pollution, aqua- ecosystem degradation, reservoir dry-up and river aesthetic waste etc. In case of being incapable of supplying water owing to continuation of severe drought, it can make the damage very serious beyond our prediction. This study analyzes comprehensively sustained drought impacts on the Han River Basin Water Supply System. Drought scenarios consisted of several sustained times and return periods for 5 sub-watersheds are generated using a stochastic hydrologic time series model. The developed drought scenarios are applied to assess water supply performance at the Paldang Dam. The results show that multi-year drought events reflecting spatial hydrologic diversity need to be examined in order to recognize variation of the unexpected drought impacts.

Temporal aspects ofQuercus rubradecline and relationship to climate in the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas

Extreme climate events are frequently important factors associated with episodes of forest decline. A recent oak decline event and concurrent outbreak of a native wood-boring beetle, the red oak borer ( Enaphalodes rufulus (Haldeman)), occurred throughout Arkansas Ozark and Ouachita Mountains. To investigate the role of drought and stand maturity on northern red oak ( Quercus rubra L.) decline, we analyzed tree-ring growth patterns and their relationships to climate from 815 live and 161 recently dead Q. rubra. While younger Q. rubra exhibited faster growth rates and stronger climate relationships than older Q. rubra, some individuals within all stands that originated >60 years ago were susceptible to growth decline or mortality. A significant growth interaction occurred among the three age classes identified where currently healthy Q. rubra were initially growing at slower decadal rates than currently declining or recently dead Q. rubra and later transitioned to higher growth rates than the others. These differences appear to be related to carbon allocation patterns towards rapid aboveground and (or) belowground growth early in development that led to later decline and (or) mortality. Decline in growth and weakening tree growth – climate relationships appeared to be initiated by an unusually severe and sustained drought in the early 1950s.

Impacts of drought on leaf respiration in darkness and light in Eucalyptus saligna exposed to industrial‐age atmospheric CO2 and growth temperature

Our study assessed the impact of a wide range of industrial-age climate scenarios on leaf respiration (R) in Eucalyptus saligna. Well-watered or sustained drought-treated plants were grown in glasshouses differing in atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) (280, 400 and 640 μl l⁻¹) and temperature (26 and 30°C). Rates of R in darkness (R(dark) ) and light (R(light) ), photosynthesis (A) and related leaf traits (mass : area relationships, and nitrogen, phosphorus, starch and sugar concentrations) were measured. Light inhibited R in all cases (R(light) < R(dark) ) (well-watered: 40%; drought-treated: 73%). Growth [CO₂] and temperature had little impact on area-based rates of R(dark) or R(light) , with R(light) exhibiting minimal thermal acclimation. By contrast, sustained drought resulted in reduced R(dark), R(light) and A, with the inhibitory effect of drought on A and R(light) (c. 50-70%) greater than that on R(dark) (c. 15%). Drought effects were fully reversible after watering. Variability in R(light) appeared to be dependent on the underlying rate of R(dark) and associated Rubisco activity. Collectively, our data suggest that there is an asynchronous response of leaf carbon metabolism to drought, and a tighter coupling between R(light) and A than between R(dark) and A, under both past and future climate scenarios. These findings have important implications for ecosystem/global models seeking to predict carbon cycling.

Major Mesoamerican droughts of the past millennium

[1] Ancient Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees found in Barranca de Amealco, Queretaro, have been used to develop a 1,238-year tree-ring chronology that is correlated with precipitation, temperature, drought indices, and crop yields in central Mexico. This chronology has been used to reconstruct the spring-early summer soil moisture balance over the heartland of the Mesoamerican cultural province, and is the first exactly dated, annually resolved paleoclimatic record for Mesoamerica spanning the Late Classic, Post Classic, Colonial, and modern eras. The reconstruction indicates that the Terminal Classic drought extended into central Mexico, supporting other sedimentary and speleothem evidence for this early 10th century drought in Mesoamerica. The reconstruction also documents severe and sustained drought during the decline of the Toltec state (1149–1167) and during the Spanish conquest of the Aztec state (1514–1539), providing a new precisely dated climate framework for Mesoamerican cultural change.