Sustainable Trajectory Research Articles

Economic transformation as a component of societal transformation: an integrative vision

The article is devoted to the problem of assessing the impact of economic transformation on the development of society. Particular attention is paid to the well-received drivers of economic change in the current decade – widespread digitalization and the gradual establishment of a “green”, carbon-free economy. The interpretation of sustainable societal transformation as a universal systemic process is substantiated. According to the argumentation presented, it is reasonable to assess the results of the transformation of the national economy based on indicators of the degree of its approach to a sustainable trajectory. The final part of the article reveals the role of economic transformation as a driver of future general social progress, which becomes achievable provided that the optimistic consolidated scenario of global development is fulfilled.

Tradeoffs and synergy between material cycles and greenhouse gas emissions: Opportunities in a rapidly growing housing stock

AbstractManagement of building materials’ stocks and flows is a major opportunity for circularity and de‐carbonization. We examine the relationship between material consumption and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different scenarios in Israel, a developed country with an already high population density that expects tremendous growth in its housing stock by 2050. We created scenarios of varying housing unit sizes and additional material efficiency practices: fabrication yield, lifetime extension, material substitution, recycling, and their combination, resulting in 18 scenarios. In each scenario, the material flows and stocks needed to supply the housing demand and the resulting life‐cycle GHG emissions are quantified. No single material efficiency practice achieves a reduction in all indicators, suggesting a potential conflict between circular economy and decarbonization policies: The material substitution scenario allows for the biggest reduction in material consumption (12%–40% concrete reduction and 15%–51% steel reduction in 2050 compared with the baseline), while the recycling scenario achieves the biggest reduction in GHG emissions (22%–43% reduction in 2050 compared with the baseline). In the long‐term, the life‐extension scenario reduces most demolition waste. These findings can help policymakers and stakeholders consider the impacts of raw materials consumption and implement this knowledge in light of their priorities in policy packages. The results suggest a narrow window of opportunity within the next decade to influence material consumption and emissions to 2050. The findings could also shed light on the sustainability trajectories of other countries with similarly rapidly developing building stock, which have received little attention in this field.

Towards a greener future: The impact of financial technology (FinTech) and climate finance on ecological sustainability

Ecological sustainability has become a top priority for worldwide policymakers due to severe consequences. Innovative approaches, like climate finance and financial technology (FinTech), are crucial in combating climate change and its environmental hazards. This study aims to investigate the role of climate finance on ecological sustainability with FinTech and institutional quality as moderators from 2010 to 2022 in 58 advanced countries. Besides that, the COVID-19 spillover shock effect (pre-post), socio-economic conditions, and trade openness are also considered as other variables in this study. The study employed the two-step Sys GMM approach, and the robustness was checked by the D-K regression and bootstrap panel quantile regression for empirical analysis. The results reveal that climate finance improves the trajectory of long-term ecological sustainability by significantly lowering the ecological footprint (EF). FinTech has a strong positive effect on ecological performance by decreasing the EF. Furthermore, the combined influence of CF∗FinTech has significantly boosted ecological sustainability by diminishing the EF. Institutional quality substantially enhances ecological sustainability by reducing the EF. Similarly, the interaction term CF∗IQ improves ecological performance by lowering the EF. The outcomes have significant implications for sustainable development policy, influencing the transition to low-carbon economies and meeting net-zero emissions within this decade, contributing to improved ecological sustainability.

High‐Resolution Modeling and Projecting Local Dynamics of Differential Vulnerability to Urban Heat Stress

AbstractClimate change‐induced heat stress has significant effects on human health, and is influenced by a wide variety of factors. Most assessments of future heat‐related risks however are based on coarse resolution projections of heat hazards and overlook the contribution of relevant factors other than climate change to the negative impacts on health. Research highlights sociodemographic disparities related to heat stress vulnerability, especially among older adults, women and individuals with low socioeconomic status, leading to higher morbidity and mortality rates. There is thus an urgent need for detailed, local information on demographic characteristics underlying vulnerability with refined spatial resolution. This study aims to address the research gaps by presenting a new population projection exercise at high‐resolution based on the Bayesian modeling framework for the case study of Madrid, using demographic data under the scenarios compatible with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We examine the spatial and temporal distribution of population subgroups at the intra‐urban level within Madrid. Our findings reveal a concentration of vulnerable populations, as measured by their age, sex and educational attainment level in some of the city's most disadvantaged neighborhoods. These vulnerable clusters are projected to widen in the future unless a sustainable trajectory is realized, driving vulnerability dynamics toward a more uniform and resilient change. These results can guide local adaptation efforts and support climate justice initiatives to protect vulnerable communities in urban environments.

Exploratory modeling of social‐ecological systems

AbstractNavigating social‐ecological systems toward sustainable trajectories is an important challenge of the Anthropocene. Models of social‐ecological systems can increase our understanding of how social and ecological subsystems interact, their response to environmental changes, and how their dynamics may be altered by management interventions. However, the level of representational detail required for models to describe a particular social‐ecological system with high fidelity (i.e., accurately quantifying system dynamics) may hamper both the interpretability of model results and our ability to identify key processes and feedbacks within the system. In contrast, stylized models describe simplified interactions between a small subset of social‐ecological system elements. Stylized models are a useful tool to identify potential consequences of specific key processes and feedbacks on system functioning. However, the relatively low level of representational detail in these models limits their ability to deliver concrete management options for a particular social‐ecological system. Here, we describe how an exploratory modeling approach can utilize the strengths of stylized models before the construction of social‐ecological system models with high fidelity and representational detail. This exploratory modeling approach is an iterative strategy, with the initial steps comprising the development of stylized models informed by empirical observations. We illustrate this with two examples of stylized modeling of isolated and connected social‐ecological systems. Through repeated confrontation of alternative models with empirical data, exploratory modeling provides useful stepping stones toward the development of models that describe social‐ecological systems in increasingly specific settings with increasing levels of representational detail. When these latter types of models reach a high level of fidelity, they could be used for scenario‐based analyses and participatory decision‐making processes. At this stage, the conceptual insights previously obtained during the exploratory modeling phase may aid in the interpretation and communication of the outcomes of scenario‐based analyses. Hence, exploratory modeling aims to create a synergy between the insights obtained from stylized models and system‐specific, high‐fidelity models in order to generate a deep understanding of the drivers of social‐ecological system dynamics, and how to leverage these drivers to initiate desired changes.

Coevolutionary dynamics in tropical peat ecosystems: A case study of Sumatra peatlands biosphere reserve

Tropical peat swamp is an essential ecosystem experiencing increased degradation over the past few decades. Therefore, this study used the social-ecological system (SES) perspective to explain the complex relationship between humans and nature in the Sumatran Peatlands Biosphere Reserve. The peat swamp forest has experienced a significant decline, followed by a significant increase in oil palm and forest plantations in areas designated for peat protection. Human systems have evolved to become complex and hierarchical, constituting individuals, groups, organizations, and institutions. Studies on SES conducted in the tropical peatlands of Asia have yet to address the co-evolutionary processes occurring in this region, which could illustrate the dynamic relationship between humans and nature. This study highlights the co-evolutionary processes occurring in the tropical peatland biosphere reserve and provides insights into their sustainability trajectory. Moreover, the coevolution process shows that biosphere reserve is shifting toward an unsustainable path. This is indicated by ongoing degradation in three zones and a lack of a comprehensive framework for landscape-scale water management. Implementing landscape-scale water management is essential to sustain the capacity of peatlands social-ecological systems facing disturbances, and it is important to maintain biodiversity. In addition, exploring alternative development pathways can help alter these trajectories toward sustainability.

Dressing the Future: The Bibliometric Interplay Between Sustainability and Fashion Studies Amidst the Neoliberal Era

The concept of sustainability has significantly influenced various industries, notably the fashion sector. This study conducts a thorough quantitative and qualitative analysis of the interplay between fashion studies and sustainability. Utilizing data from the Scopus database, 890 articles published between 2000 and 2023 were scrutinized through an integrated approach combining bibliometric and content analyses. The aim was to explore how sustainability, initially an economic notion, left its imprint on academic research in fashion studies. This research was accompanied by a critical assessment of the neoliberal context, which envisions a market-oriented political economy model in which the concept of sustainability emerged. Key findings include a steadily increasing emphasis on sustainability in fashion research. Notable journals leading the discourse include Sustainability, Journal of Fashion Marketing and Management, Journal of Cleaner Production, Fashion Practice, and International Journal of Fashion Design Technology and Education. Interestingly, while fashion is rooted in the arts, significant contributions emerged from researchers in diverse disciplines, reflecting the field’s interdisciplinary nature. The study identified five critical thematic clusters within: sustainable fashion design, sustainable fashion production, sustainable fashion marketing, sustainable fashion consumption, and the theoretical foundation in sustainable fashion. This research not only enriches the literature by mapping the trajectory of sustainability in fashion studies but also highlights the evolving nature of fashion research, bridging traditional boundaries and embracing a more holistic approach to sustainability.

Critically Interrogating the Decolonization of Development: Possibilities and Pitfalls

This essay delves deep into the intricate issues pertaining to the concept of "decolonization" within the realm of international development. The study is grounded in the profound understanding that the legacy of colonialism continues to cast a long shadow over contemporary development, giving rise to pervasive inequalities and marginalization in various parts of the world. The central theme of the research revolves around critically examining the potential avenues and potential pitfalls associated with the process of decolonization. Through a meticulous analysis of relevant theories and a close examination of real-world cases, the study seeks to unravel the multifaceted dimensions of the definition, possibilities, and the formidable challenges encountered in the implementation of decolonization in the development context. The findings of the research suggest that while decolonization holds the promise of steering development towards more equitable and sustainable trajectories, it also confronts a multitude of challenges, including the stubborn inertia ingrained within institutional frameworks and the resistance posed by the entrenched global power structures. The conclusions drawn emphasize the imperative need for further in-depth research to propel the process of decolonization forward and to strive towards the realization of a just and equitable global society.

Identifying behavior change interventions with deep leverage: a conceptual and qualitative case study with farmers from Germany

Successful transformation of agriculture toward a more sustainable trajectory requires agri-environmental practices and interventions that are deemed supportive by farmers, have the potential for a transformative change and are based on a solid understanding of farmers’ behavior and decision-making. This article reports on in-depth semi-structured interviews with German farmers to uncover key facilitators of and barriers to the adoption of agri-environmental practices. In a first step, 10 themes were identified using a qualitative content analysis, which were then assessed for their potential leverage point from a system perspective and integrated into the diagnostic Behavior Change Wheel to identify targets for behavioral interventions. The paper shows that adding the transformative potential to behavioral interventions is useful. According to our analyses, deep leverage interventions are most likely to be associated with the theme Land stewardship and Identity, and the COM-B model (Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, Behavior)—element Reflective motivation, referring to the conscious cognitive processes that direct and inspire behavior.

Energy efficiency, economic growth, and natural resource rent: A trilemma analysis of environmental sustainability in Africa

Climate change, exacerbated by a global economic model reliant on carbon-intensive industrialization and unchecked growth, disproportionately affects vulnerable regions such as Africa. Therefore, transitioning to an ecologically sustainable development paradigm is imperative for developing countries facing climate disruptions. The current study analyzes the trilemma effect of energy efficiency, economic growth, and total natural resource rent on environmental quality in Africa from 2010 to 2018 using SMB-DEA and PMG ARDL methods. The results are as follows: first, SMB-DEA analysis found traditional and renewable energy efficiency at 89 % and 58 %, respectively, indicating infrastructure and policy deficiencies in optimizing renewables. Second, economic expansion poses significant environmental costs; energy efficiency has an insignificant ameliorating effect on efficiency; and counterintuitively, natural resource rents become less environmentally harmful over time, though remain detrimental in the short term. Third, country-specific analyses presented heterogeneous outcomes, reflecting the complexity of global climate solutions. Fourth, transforming inefficient energy-growth-emission systems onto sustainable trajectories requires 262 % CO2 emission cuts and 46.7 % increased renewables capacity to reach efficiency frontiers. Fifth, Bidirectional causal relationships exist between income, energy efficiency, emissions, and resource rents, mutually influencing one another. These findings support suggestions for upscaling green energy capacity and improving green energy efficiency.

Board network and ESG performance: Evidence from China

AbstractAs ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) principles increasingly shape the trajectory of global economic and societal sustainability, our study delves into how a firm's network dynamics influence its ESG performance within the Chinese landscape spanning from 2011 to 2020. Drawing insights from agency theory, resource dependence theory, and social network theory, we uncover a notable correlation between board interlocking and ESG performance. This correlation suggests that well‐connected directors can potentially enhance a firm's ESG performance by facilitating information gathering, monitoring, advising, and leveraging influence to address stakeholders' concerns. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the characteristics of ownership structure, as gauged by indicators such as institutional ownership, control‐cash flow wedge, and state‐owned ownership, serve as positive moderators in this relationship. Conversely, board structure, as evaluated by board independence, does not exhibit a significant moderating effect. Additionally, we uncover noteworthy mediating effects of firm size and institutional shareholding on the relationship between board interlocking and ESG performance. Importantly, our findings hold robust across various sensitivity analyses, including alternative model specifications, variable definitions, and strategies to mitigate potential endogeneity concerns.

Policy design for biodiversity: How problem conception drift undermines “fit-for-purpose” Peatland conservation

Abstract For over two decades, scientists have documented the alarming decline of global Peatland ecosystems, regarded as the planet’s most crucial carbon sinks. The deterioration of these unique wetlands alongside their policy attention presents a puzzle for policy scientists and for students of anticipatory policy design. Two contrasting explanations have emerged. Some argue that pressures from economic globalization compel governments to relax environmental standards, while others point to deficiencies in policy design and implementation. Our paper applies Cashore’s Four Problem Types framework to assess a more nuanced explanation: that failure of global and local policies to curb ecosystem degradation is owing to a misalignment between how the problem is currently conceived of, and what conception is required for, effective environmental management. We find overwhelming evidence that reversing Peatland degradation necessitates a fundamental shift in applied policy analysis—from treating the crisis as a Type 3 (Compromise), Type 2 (Optimization), or even Type 1 (Commons) problem, to conceiving it as a Type 4 (Prioritization) challenge. Achieving this requires undertaking four essential policy design tasks: engaging sequentialist/lexical ordering processes; identifying key features of the problem that any solution would need to incorporate to effectively overcome; applying path dependency analysis to uncover policy mix innovations capable of “locking-in” sustainability trajectories that can fend off pressures for policy conception drift; and organizing multistakeholder “policy design learning” exercises that integrate complex sources of knowledge produced within, and across, the ecological and policy sciences.

Predictive analysis of stochastic stock pattern utilizing fractional order dynamics and heteroscedastic with a radial neural network framework

Modelling of high-dimension chaotic, noisy, and non-stationary time series of complex fractal dynamics is a big challenge. In this research work, a novel approach of Leverage Convolution LC ARFIMA– GARCH model is presented for sequential learning of irregular, fractal dynamic patterns of stochastic time series dynamics. Different classical methods including the auto-regressive approach indecently are unable to capture fragile patterns and consequently convert some weak signals into random errors by creating white noise patterns. The Convolution Leverage provides an additional degree of freedom for critical noisy points and asymmetrical distribution dynamics to regulate the frequency of imbalance and skewed observation. The designed transformation in the ARFIMA model preserves the loss of information by shifting the skewed data distribution toward a normal pattern. The pattern of population parameters in the proposed leverage paradigm provides out of box approach to track and extract additional information on population variance patterns in the form of an additional degree of freedom to stabilize imbalance signals. The model can provide reliable performance for long-range dependence, particularly for mean reversion chaotic phase variation at critical non-differentiable points. The performance of the dynamic model is verified on chaotic real data of the Ireland Stock Market (ISEQ). The result statistics confirmed the optimized outcome with the addition of the GARCH heteroscedastic multimodal and radial basis neural network. The novel technique can help to address inherited challenges in the imbalance learning and extreme events of the time series modeling by monitoring the chaotic trajectory of fractal physical phenomena, particularly in, finance healthcare, climate, and intelligent sustainability.

Discussion on Radio: Peran Generasi Muda dalam Menjaga Lingkungan

The young generation was an agent of change demanding environmental hygiene, which was particularly vital to disease prevention efforts. Besides, young representatives from diverse groups were advocating for environmental restoration and preservation out of concern for the potential consequences of climate change on the global community in the future. Thus, the article's objective was to introduce the young generation to the significance of environmental protection and influence their perspective on beginning to safeguard the earth at a young age. Also, the article's objective was to disseminate information regarding the implementation of the concept of environmental protection, which was transmitted and disseminated on the radio via a sharing session. The approach method utilized in this article is a shared session, presented in the manner of a Talk Show. Therefore, the young generation were spearheading the effort to address climate change with enthusiasm, ingenuity, and an unyielding dedication to a sustainable trajectory. The youth's crucial position on the environment will solve climate change, emphasizing their contributions, obstacles, and the significance of their participation in shaping a more favorable future for future generations.

Methane emissions from the natural gas industry in China – A systematically accounting based on the bottom-up approach

The comprehensive and meticulous assessment of methane (CH4) emissions stemming from the natural gas industry stands as an imperative endeavor in steering the natural gas industry toward a trajectory of low-carbon sustainability. This study has meticulously constructed detailed facility-level inventories for CH4 emissions within China's natural gas industry and used a bottom-up approach to fully account for both direct and indirect CH4 emissions. The findings reveal a notable increase in CH4 emissions within the natural gas industry in China, rising from 2.04 Mt in 2012 to 3.94 Mt in 2021. Regionally, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Xinjiang emerged as the primary emission contributors in 2020, signifying a shift from northeastern and northern China to northwestern and southwestern regions during the 2012–2020 period. The fluctuations in emissions, both overall and regionally, closely align with the evolving landscape of China's natural gas sector. Projections for future CH4 emissions indicate a continued upward trajectory in tandem with industry growth. Consequently, the study emphasizes the urgency of implementing emission reduction measures in China's natural gas industry. Timely intervention is crucial to ensuring the orderly progression of the industry while effectively curbing the associated CH4 emissions.

The impact of cleaner energy sources, advanced technology firms, and economic expansion on ecological footprints is critical in sustainable development

The environmental degradation accompanying economic growth, despite the potential mitigating effects of technological advancements and cleaner energy sources. This study examines the critical impact of cleaner energy sources, advanced technology firms, and economic expansion on ecological footprints within the context of sustainable development, focusing on the period between 2010 and 2022. By comparing the E7 (emerging seven) and G7 (Group of Seven) economies, the research aims to delineate how these factors collectively influence environmental sustainability in both developing and developed nations. Utilizing a robust panel estimation technique, the study systematically explores the relationship between the adoption of renewable energy technologies, the growth of high-tech industries, and macroeconomic expansion, alongside their respective effects on the ecological footprint, a key indicator of environmental impact. Our statistical analysis reveals significant differences between the E7 and G7 countries. For the G7, investments in cleaner energy and technology sectors have shown a more pronounced effect in reducing ecological footprints, attributed to higher efficiency standards and greater public awareness. In contrast, the E7 countries exhibit a delayed response, owing to varying stages of economic development and technological adoption, although promising trends are emerging. Notably, the G7 demonstrates a more pronounced inclination towards financial imperialism (0.043), while the E7 is significantly influenced by green energy sources (0.258). Policy implications drawn from the findings suggest that targeted investments in green technologies and renewable energy sources, coupled with robust policies supporting economic expansion in a sustainable manner, are crucial for both groups of countries. For the E7, accelerating technology transfer and adopting stricter environmental regulations are key, while the G7 should focus on innovation and the continuous improvement of energy efficiency standards. This dual approach is essential for mitigating the environmental impacts of economic growth and steering the global economy towards a more sustainable trajectory.

Infrastructure Development and Regional Disparities

This paper delves into the intricate relationship between infrastructure development and regional disparities. Recognizing the pivotal role of infrastructure in catalyzing economic growth, this study investigates how uneven distribution and accessibility to infrastructure can exacerbate existing regional inequalities. Through an exploration of challenges and opportunities, the paper underscores the need for strategic planning and inclusive policies to ensure equitable infrastructure development. The research provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to bridge the gap between urban and rural areas, fostering a more balanced and sustainable trajectory of development. As nations globally prioritize infrastructure investments, understanding and addressing regional disparities become imperative for fostering inclusive and resilient societies. Keywords: infrastructure development, economic growth, regional disparities

A Systems Thinking Perspective on the Obstacles Faced by Industrial Organizations to Transition towards Sustainability

The climate crisis threatens the sustainable development of our planet. Mitigating the complexity of the sustainable challenge needs a holistic and systematic perspective. Systems solutions, such as systems thinking and systems engineering, can help to mitigate such challenges. Systems engineering in particular has to assist in transdisciplinary development and cooperation. Methods, tools, and methodologies in systems engineering can be key enablers to align the present world condition towards sustainable trajectories. To align with the sustainable transition, industrial organizations need to integrate sustainability at their core: the system’s development. Realizing socio-technical systems that are sustainable is not a triviality. Based on industry interviews and a literature study, this article discusses these challenges and presents how systems thinking and systems engineering disciplines may support industries to mitigate the same. To realize sustainable systems this work suggests i) identifying sustainability as a quality of the system; ii) collecting environmentally sustainable (big) data; and iii) establishing a collaborative environment among stakeholders where to discuss challenges related to the system’s lifecycle.

Fostering Sustainable Development Through Decent Work For Paid Domestic Workers Under SDG-8

This paper analyses the intricate connection between decent work, sustainable development and paid domestic workers within the framework of SDG-8. This study attempts to explain the economic implications of fostering decent work for domestic workers and its role in advancing the objectives of SDG -8.This paper is based on the existing literature and scholarly works relevant to the intersection of decent work, sustainable development and domestic work within the context of SDG-8.This is an attempt to analyse how their participation contributes to and benefit from SDG-8, examining the specific targets related to decent work and economic growth. The study further extends to address the importance of achieving work-life balance for domestic workers, recognizing the necessity for policies for their well-being. Collaborative efforts, involving, government, employers and NGOs are spotlighted as catalysts for fostering sustainable development in domestic work. The present study acknowledges challenges faced by domestic workers and proposes sustainable solutions for achieving a balanced, dignified, sustainable trajectory for domestic workers within the ambit of sustainable development goal -8. For domestic workers SDG-8 involves ensuring fair wages, reasonable working hours, safe working conditions and access to social protections.SDG 8 encourages formalisation of informal sector, which is crucial for domestic workers to gain legal recognition, protection and access to benefits.

Recent developments and challenges in algal protein and peptide extraction strategies, functional and technological properties, bioaccessibility, and commercial applications.

The burgeoning demand for protein, exacerbated by population growth and recent disruptions in the food supply chain, has prompted a rapid exploration of sustainable protein alternatives. Among these alternatives, algae stand out for their environmental benefits, rapid growth, and rich protein content. However, the widespread adoption of algae-derived proteins faces significant challenges. These include issues related to harvesting, safety, scalability, high cost, standardization, commercialization, and regulatory hurdles. Particularly daunting is the efficient extraction of algal proteins, as their resilient cell walls contain approximately 70% of the protein content, with conventional methods accessing only a fraction of this. Overcoming this challenge necessitates the development of cost-effective, scalable, and environmentally friendly cell disruption techniques capable of breaking down these rigid cell walls, often laden with viscous polysaccharides. Various approaches, including physical, chemical, and enzymatic methods, offer potential solutions, albeit with varying efficacy depending on the specific algal strain and energy transfer efficiency. Moreover, there remains a pressing need for further research to elucidate the functional, technological, and bioaccessible properties of algal proteins and peptides, along with exploring their diverse commercial applications. Despite these obstacles, algae hold considerable promise as a sustainable protein source, offering a pathway to meet the escalating nutritional demands of a growing global population. This review highlights the nutritional, technological, and functional aspects of algal proteins and peptides while underscoring the challenges hindering their widespread adoption. It emphasizes the critical importance of establishing a sustainable trajectory for food production, with algae playing a pivotal role in this endeavor.