Sustainable Land Use Policies Research Articles

Evaluating economic viability and environmental externalities of integrated tilapia-sugarcane farming in Maharashtra

In recent years, farmers in Maharashtra have engaged in aquaculture-sugarcane farming, with those from the Ujjani reservoir area practicing integrated sugarcane farming using tilapia farm discharge water. This study aims to systematically compare the economic viability and environmental externalities between sugarcane-only farms (SF) and tilapia-sugarcane farms (TSF) within the commanding area of the Ujjani reservoir. Primary data was collected from the 160 farmers (80 SF, 80 TSF), and Secondary data were collected from published literature, the Department of Fisheries, and fisheries cooperative societies. Data analysis used descriptive statistics to characterize demographic profile, farm performance (cost-benefit analysis, production function), and farmers' perceptions. Principal component analysis (PCA), cluster analysis, and two-way MANOVA were employed for environmental assessments. Results indicate that TSF yields higher profits across all cost scenarios, with a Benefit-Cost ratio of 1.69, surpassing SF's ratio of 1.55. The Cobb-Douglas production function analysis reveals increasing returns to scale for both SF and TSF, with the sum of coefficients exceeding one. The results of the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicate that 31 variables rated by sugarcane growers were extracted into ten components, which explains 65 % of the total variance for SF and 62 % for TSF. K-means cluster analysis grouped these components into four clusters, termed externalities of irrigation. A Two-way MANOVA indicated significant differences (p < 0.05) between SF and TSF farmers' perceptions of these externalities, with further distinctions among four farmer categories and significant interaction effects. Policy recommendations include financial incentives and environmental regulations to support TSF adoption, sustainable land-use policies, and institutional interventions for management practices and market research. These measures address challenges and promote the transition to sustainable TSF practices.

An integrated model chain for diagnosing and predicting conflicts between production-living-ecological space in lake network regions: A case of the Dongting Lake region, China

The disorderly expansion of human production-living construction activities into aquatic ecological sensitive areas has triggered severe production-living-ecological space (PLES) conflicts. However, research on the risk-triggering mechanisms of PLES conflicts in lake network regions and multidimensional scenario simulation techniques is relatively lacking. To address these issues, this study constructs an integrated model chain by coupling the Markov-GMOP-PLUS model to achieve a quantified diagnosis and simulated regulation of spatial conflict strength index (SCSI) under sustainable development goals. Applying it to the Dongting Lake region reveals that: (1) The overall PLES exhibited a distribution pattern where “ecological space encompasses production space, with living space interspersed within”. The category conversion mainly reflected the encroachment of agricultural production space on the plain water ecological space, with a conversion area of up to 899.48 km2. (2) The distinctive “high in the north, low in the south” PLES conflict pattern was closely aligned with the land use structure and water system distribution, with conflict hotspots persistently clustering in the core lake network regions amid rapid urbanization. Among these, the growth rate of severe conflicts in the last ten years was 3.86 times that of the previous ten years. (3) The sustainable development scenario showcased the most effective conflict mitigation by curtailing production-living space expansion and ecological space encroachment. This scenario reversed the growth trend in conflict high-value zones and the reduction trend in low-value zones, with change rates of −3.30 % and 7.05 %, respectively, compared to 2020. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating sustainable land-use policies in lake network regions.

Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Natural Habitats in Enhancing Coastal Resilience: A Case Study in Shanghai, China

This research evaluates the coastal vulnerability of Shanghai, evaluates the effectiveness of existing natural habitats in reducing that vulnerability, and, finally, provides recommendations to improve the resilience of the coastal areas. Shanghai is an important economic center that is home to a large population. However, the combination of ground subsidence, rising sea levels, and more frequent coastal flooding due to tropical cyclones poses escalating climate risks for Shanghai, demanding urgent mitigation measures. The InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model was used in this study to assess Shanghai’s coastal vulnerability under the current situation and various scenarios that simulated the absence of natural habitats. The assessment results were analyzed through a comparison between different scenarios and spatial aggregation analysis. This study pinpointed highly vulnerable areas, primarily located on the east coast of Chongming Island, the east and northeast coasts of Hengsha Island, and the east coast of the mainland of Shanghai. These areas need to be prioritized for intervention. Also, it demonstrated the effectiveness of existing natural habitats in reducing coastal vulnerability, with large green spaces and salt marshes playing a greater role compared to small green spaces. This is the first study applying the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model to Shanghai, demonstrating the model’s potential in providing valuable information regarding coastal protection against the impacts of climate change in Shanghai. Insights from the findings of this study are useful in crafting sustainable land-use policies and plans for Shanghai.

National-scale imperviousness mapping and detection of urban land changes

With high land take for urbanization a serious concern, the European Union and Member States have set quantitative targets for limiting land take in Europe. Consistent and reliable information on land take is crucial for measuring progress in achieving these targets. In the big data era, Earth observation data offers opportunities to regularly and consistently monitor land use change dynamics on a national scale. However, often-used methods such as image classification do not solve the mixed pixels problem common to urban areas with high heterogeneity. Moreover, the urban land use changes detected by these methods are often affected by random noise caused by non-relevant changes in atmospheric conditions, sun angle, vegetation phenology, etc. Therefore, the resulting products are often judged as being of insufficient quality for operational application.In this study, we present an approach to measuring annual land take using imperviousness mapping and change detection. Based on the Google Earth cloud computing platform, we first applied a data mining approach on annual Sentinel-2 image scenes to extract temporal and spectral information at Germany wide scale. Then spectral unmixing algorithm was used to estimate sub-pixel fractions of imperviousness. We end by using imperviousness changes to detect newly built surfaces. The change detection products were validated using high-resolution historical aerial photos and images. The results achieved an accuracy of 87% for detecting new built-up and 98% for detecting changes. The difference between the two numbers is caused by the areas with changes on the surface but not for urban use.We found that the integration of temporal information improves the performance of spectral unmixing than using spectral information alone, because it can better distinguish imperviousness from other land covers with similar spectral signatures but different temporal characteristics. We also found that, due to the sub-pixel analysis approach, spectral-unmixing-derived imperviousness is sensitive to urban features even with a size of just a few pixels. Moreover, the imperviousness layer represents urban land with a continuous index, meaning that random noise, represented as a low-range change of fractions, can be filtered out. Our study demonstrated that remote sensing products can be tailored to fulfil the needs of specific applications supporting sustainable land-use policy. This opens up more possibilities for the diverse and growing user communities of urban land change products.

Urban sprawl at the expense of cultivated land: decadal land use and land cover changes and future projections in the upper Awash basin of central Ethiopia

IntroductionUrban sprawl in developing countries affects future sustainability concerns related to environment, ecology and cropland losses. This study aimed at identifying, classifying and quantifying the changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC) during the last two decades (2000–2020) and predict the decadal pattern for the next three decades (2030–2050), with particular emphasis on urban sprawl at the expense of cultivated land in the upper Awash basin of central Ethiopia.MethodsLandsat images were used to analyze the LULC change dynamics using hybrid image classification and maximum likelihood classifier techniques. The Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CAMC) Model was used to predict its future LULC change dynamics. A detailed analysis of the urban sprawl in the cities of Addis Ababa, Adama, and Mojo was also conducted.ResultsIt was observed that during the last two decades, settlements, particularly urban sprawls, substantially expanded at the expense of cultivated land, whereas the latter modestly expanded at the expense of forestland, bare land, and shrubland. From its size in 2000, the urban sprawl of Addis Ababa has grown in all directions towards cultivated land by more than six times in 2020 and is expected to become double of that by 2050 in the urban and peri-urban areas of the basin. Adama city has expanded by the same rate of 9.7% in the past two decades, while Mojo town has sprawled 9 folds between 2010 and 2020. The predicted percentage change in settlement for Addis Ababa and its neighboring districts within 22 km radius from the centroid shows a 40% expansion in 2030, 77% in 2040, and 87% in 2050 compared with the reference year 2020. Similarly, the Mojo town will expand significantly in 2030 (54%), 2040 (119%), and 2050 (by a staggering magnitude of 244%), while Adama will expand within the 12 km radius by 18%, 42%, and 117% in the next three respective decades.DiscussionThe rapid cultivated land conversions in the basin may contribute to major shifts in urban and peri-urban ecological environments. Our predictive LULC change maps and urban sprawling could be useful for developing effective and sustainable land-use policies for environmental and ecological management in the upper Awash basin.

Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates.

Mountains are among the natural systems most affected by climate change, and mountain mammals are considered particularly imperiled, given their high degree of specialization to narrow tolerance bands of environmental conditions. Climate change mitigation policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to stem climate change impacts on natural systems. But how significant is the Paris Agreement to the survival of mountain mammals? We investigated how alternative emission scenarios may determine change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates in 2050. We based our predictions of future change in species niches based on how species have responded to past environmental changes, focusing on the probabilities of niche shrink and niche stability. We found that achieving the Paris Agreement's commitments would substantially reduce climate instability for mountain species. Specifically, limiting global warming to below 1.5°C would reduce the probability of niche shrinkage by 4% compared with a high-emission scenario. Globally, carnivores showed greater niche shrinkage than ungulates, whereas ungulates were more likely to shift their niches (i.e., face a level of climate change that allows adaptation). Twenty-three species threatened by climate change according to the IUCN Red List had greater niche contraction than other species we analyzed (3% higher on average). We therefore argue that climate mitigation policies must be coupled with rapid species-specific conservation intervention and sustainable land-use policies to avoid high risk of loss of already vulnerable species.

The Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Drivers of Habitat Quality in the Hung River Valley

The survival and sustainability of regional species is constrained by habitat quality. In recent decades, the intensification of human activities on a global scale has had a profound impact on regional ecosystems and poses a serious threat to regional sustainable development. Scientific measurement of the drivers of habitat quality can provide important support for the development of effective biodiversity conservation and sustainable land-use policies. Taking the Hung River Valley as an example, the InVEST model was used to assess the habitat quality of the study area in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 and to explore its spatial and temporal variation and distribution characteristics in combination with the spatial autocorrelation model, and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to explore the drivers of habitat quality change. The results show the following: (1) The overall habitat quality shows an increasing trend during 2000–2020, but the expansion of construction land in the central region plays a dominant role in the degradation of regional habitat quality. (2) The “Guide-Ledu” line is the dividing line of habitat quality in the Hung River Valley, with a general distribution of “south is good, north is bad” and “south is hot, north is cold”. (3) Natural factors such as slope and elevation basically shape the overall distribution pattern of habitat quality, while urbanisation factors such as population density, gross domestic product, and the night-time lighting index are generally negatively correlated with habitat quality. The results of the study can reveal the linkage between ecosystems and land-use change in the context of urbanisation.

Ecotourism as a Forest Conservation Tool: An NDVI Analysis of the Sitakunda Botanical Garden and Ecopark in Chattogram, Bangladesh

Ecotourism, a sustainable form of tourism, is increasingly being viewed as a tool that can promote global biodiversity and forest conservation. This study explored the scope of ecotourism in forest conservation practices in the developing context by taking the Sitakunda Botanical Garden and Ecopark (SBGE), Bangladesh’s first ecopark established in 2000, as a case study. Using GIS and remote sensing technology, NDVI analysis revealed that, unlike the anticipated outcomes of the SBGE project, after a brief increase in vegetation coverage of 84.6% from 1995 to 2000, the vegetation coverage fell drastically from 2000 to 2015, wherein 33.4% of vegetation had been completely removed, and much of the dense and medium vegetation had been converted to sparse vegetation or other land uses. Anthropogenic activities, namely, unplanned urbanization, are suggested as the major contributors to this decline. From the period of 2015 to 2020, however, vegetation was seen to regenerate, potentially due to the decelerating urbanization or the possible manifestation of the ‘U’ shape relationship between the changes in vegetation and rates of urbanization. Sustainable land-use policies may help attain the targets of the project and lead the SBGE to emerge as a success story of the Bangladeshi ecotourism industry.

Does Land-Use Policy Moderate Impacts of Climate Anomalies on LULC Change in Dry-Lands? An Empirical Enquiry into Drivers and Moderators of LULC Change in Southern Ethiopia

The study set out to understand drivers of Land-Use Land Cover (LULC) changes in dry-land areas and investigate factors helping mitigate the adverse impacts of climate anomalies on LULC changes. By employing a mixed-methods design, it combined LULC data with socioeconomic and climatic data, to analyze the pattern of LULC changes and its socioeconomic and climatic driving forces along with moderating factors. It was found that rangeland decreased by 764 km2 (13% of total area) between 1986 and 2015. The results from the Seemingly Unrelated time series regression models confirmed preliminary evidence that climate variability, as well as adaptive land-use policies lacking components of sustainability increase the likelihood of degradation and contraction of rangelands. We also found an indication from the qualitative data that a widening power gap between the customary and statutory governance system reinforces unsustainable land use by obscuring the values of the customary land governance system. However, those policies encompassing economic and natural resource development objectives abate adverse effects of climate variability on land degradation and shrinkage of rangelands. The results suggest that a land governance system with natural resource development objectives fitting to the local context could be an effective policy instrument to lessen the adverse effects of climate anomalies on LULC changes. Although this study focused on analyzing the LULC changes and its drivers in dry-land area, the findings may well have a bearing on the formulation and implementation of effective adaptation and sustainable land-use policies.

Modeling urban growth by coupling localized spatio-temporal association analysis and binary logistic regression

Understanding and forecasting the dynamics of urban growth can be helpful for making sustainable land-use policies. Computing models can simulate urban growth but many require extensive data input, which cannot be always met. Here we proposed coupling localized spatio-temporal association (LSTA) analysis and binary logistic regression (BLR) to model urban growth from historical land cover configurations. An indicator called neighborhood aggregation index (NAI) was defined first to measure configuration enrichment for any land cover type under spatial-and-temporal contexts. Multiple NAIs for different land cover types were taken into the proposed LSTA-BLR model to project future urban growth. A case study was selected in Wuhan, China where land covers were classified for each year during 2014–2017 based on the Landsat Imagery from Google Earth Engine. Urban growth from the year 2016 to 2017 was extracted from the classified land cover maps as the dependent variable which was modeled by the LSTA-BLR using predictors of the NAIs from the previous years. The LSTA-BLR models were tested under different neighborhood sizes (3 × 3, 5 × 5, 7 × 7, 9 × 9, and 11 × 11) and time windows (2016, 2015–2016, and 2014–2016). Results indicated that the best accuracy of the modeled urban growth reached 72.9% under the setting of 5 × 5 neighborhood size and time window 2014–2016. Urbanization was most likely to occur close to previously urbanized areas and unlikely near the neighborhood of enriched forest and water bodies. The neighborhood size affected the modeled result and the time window defining the NAIs had the most significant impact on model performance. We conclude that prior land cover configurations should be integrated for mapping future urban growth and the proposed LSTA-BLR model can serve as a useful tool to understand the near-future urbanization process based on the historical land cover configurations.

The framework of an agricultural land-use decision support system based on ecological environmental constraints

Agricultural land use is a complicated systems engineering. Modern agriculture faces increasingly more risks. Managers should obtain reliable information to assist in decision-making through certain methods that allow them to achieve an economic, social, and ecological environment that is crucial in coordinating the development of agricultural land-use patterns. This study proposes a framework of an agricultural land-use decision support system (LDSS) based on ecological environmental constraints according to the DSS design philosophy, which provides a scientific basis for managers to allocate land resources. This framework of LDSS consists of a land quality assessment module, an eco-economic coupling module, and a land-use optimisation module. Firstly, it establishes a natural-society-economic land quality evaluation system to simulate the comprehensive benefit relationship of land use. Secondly, it analyses the risks of soil, water, and ecological security in the process of land use; simulates and reveals the mechanism of occurrence; and completes the correlation equation expression between natural-economic-social indictor and land use risk. Based on different scenarios design, the ecological environmental risk factors are used as constraints. Finally, the multi-objective linear programming method is employed to calculate the optimal comprehensive benefits of land use and optimal land-use structure based on the constraints of the ecological environment. Then the study takes Changsha County, a high-intensification, main grain-producing area in Central and South China, as a case area to demonstrate the feasibility of the framework of LDSS, and draws the highest comprehensive benefits and optimal structure of land use under the premise that the rural ecological environment conforms to national standards. Case study shows that the LDSS framework is feasible, easy to operate, and easy to promote. The research results can provide efficient and practical support for managers to allocate land resources and formulate sustainable land-use policies rationally.

Long-term monitoring of citrus orchard dynamics using time-series Landsat data: a case study in southern China

ABSTRACTCitrus orchard planting is a typical land-use change process that can impact terrestrial ecosystem services both locally and globally. Long-term monitoring of citrus orchard dynamics is critical for understanding its change patterns as well as the potential driving factors. Satellite remote-sensing imagery has been a primary data source for this purpose. However, most previous studies with multi-year intervals only captured some, but not all detailed information on citrus orchard expansion. In this study, we developed a framework for mapping annual citrus orchard extent and track its long-term dynamics in Xunwu County, China, using the historical Landsat repository from 1990 to 2016. The results suggested that the average overall accuracy of original annual mapping was 87.73%, and its performance was significantly improved after the temporal filtering approach (91.46%). Several features (e.g. elevation, slope, normalized difference vegetation index) played more important roles in citrus orchard identification. With the achieved annual mapping layers, we found a rapid citrus orchard expansion trend during the study interval (i.e. from 22.18 to 697.21 km2). Moreover, this expansion process was unevenly distributed in time. Spatially, emerging citrus orchards were primarily transformed from forests and croplands and mainly distributed in areas with elevations from 200 to 500 m and slopes range from 5° to 20°. This study demonstrated the potential of mapping citrus orchard dynamics at a higher temporal frequency with remote-sensing time-series, which can contribute to providing reference for sustainable land-use policy.

Policies can help to apply successful strategies to control soil and water losses. The case of chipped pruned branches (CPB) in Mediterranean citrus plantations

There is a need to devise management strategies that control soil and water losses in agriculture land to allow the design of proper policies to achieve sustainability. It is the responsibility of scientists to work with other actors to co-construct strategies that will lead to sustainable land-use policies. Using chipped pruned branches (CPB) as mulch can be a viable option because they represent local (in situ) organic material that can restore soil nutrients and organic matter. This research assesses: i) the perception of farmers towards different types of management strategies and CPB’s costs; ii) the biomass yield of citrus branches and the impact of CPB on soil properties; iii) how CPB affects soil erosion and runoff generation in citrus plantations; and, iv) a discussion about how to favour the use of CPB thought successful policies. To achieve those goals we carried out: i) one-hundred interviews to assess the perception of farmers and twelve interviews to assess the economic balance of twelve land owners; ii) soil was sampled at 0–2 and 4–6 cm depths; iii) pruned material was surveyed for 40 trees; and iv) forty rainfall simulation experiments (55 mm h−1) were carried out in two citrus plantations at paired sites (Control versus CPB), in La Costera District in Eastern Spain. Forty circular (0.25 m2) plots were installed in four rows (4 × 5 = 20 plots) in control (CON) and CPB plots (20 + 20 = 40 plots) to perform the rainfall simulations over one hour. The cost of chipping ranged from 102 to 253 € ha−1, and was related to the size of the farm. The soil quality, runoff and erosion assessment showed that CPB is a suitable strategy. CPB increased organic matter from 1.3% to 2.9% after 10 years in the 0–2 cm depth layer, while the 4–6 cm layer was largely not affected (OM moved from 1.1 to 1.3% after 10 years), and soil bulk density showed a similar trend: a decrease from 1.36 to 1.16 g cm−3 in the surface layer with no change in the subsurface layer. The hydrological and erosional responses were different between CON and CPB. The CON plots initiated ponding (40 s) and runoff (107 s) earlier than the CPB plots (169 and 254 s, respectively); and runoff discharge was 60% in CON vs 43% in CPB plots. Sediment concentration was four times larger in the CON plots than in the CPB (11.3 g l−1 vs 3 g l−1), and soil erosion was 3.8 Mg ha−1 h-1 vs 0.7 Mg ha−1 h−1. CPB mulches were effective at controlling soil and water losses in Mediterranean citrus plantations as they showed the relationship between vegetation/litter cover and soil erosion rates. However, the farmer’s perception survey showed that the use of CPB was not welcomed nor accepted by the farmers. Policies that aim to promote CPB as soil conservation mulch need to be promoted by subsidies as the farmers requested, and by education to demonstrate the positive effects of CPB to of the farming community.

Effectiveness of the system of protected areas of Lombardy (Northern Italy) in preserving breeding birds

SummaryNetworks of protected areas (PAs) where human activities are allowed at different degrees are fundamental to ensure the long-term conservation of biological diversity and ecological processes. However, studies aimed at assessing their effectiveness, focusing on several species simultaneously are scarce. We assessed the effectiveness of the system of protected areas (PAs) of Lombardy, Northern Italy, in conserving bird populations by comparing the changes from 1992 to 2013 in the occurrence of 54 breeding bird species censused in areas classified in different protection categories, namely Nature Reserves (NRs), areas designed predominantly for the protection of nature; Regional Parks (RPs), naturally valuable areas where human activities, including intensive agriculture, are allowed; and non-protected areas (NPAs). Overall, occurrence of common birds increased in Lombardy in the last 20 years and farmland and long-distance migrants (LDMs), which suffered sharp declines at a continental scale, showed stable and increasing trends, respectively. These trends were, however, the balance between those of species whose occurrence markedly increased, and those of species that dramatically declined. Species occurred more often in PAs than in NPAs, while temporal trends in occurrence were significantly more positive in RPs than in both NRs and NPAs. Hence, PAs seemed effective in preserving common bird communities. Occurrence of woodland and short-distance migrant species was higher in PAs than in NPAs, while occurrence of farmland species and LDMs was similar in all protection categories. PAs of Lombardy appear therefore effective only in protecting some categories of birds. Farmland and LDM birds would benefit more from ecologically sustainable land-use policies aiming at improving agro-ecosystem biodiversity than from protected areas.

Impacts of the economic crisis on household transport expenditure and public transport policy: Evidence from the Spanish case

The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of the economic crisis in Spain on the transport expenditure of households from 2006 to 2014 and how transport authorities reacted to cope with the decreasing public resources and transport demand. The approach is based on quantitative and qualitative sources of information: the Spanish Household Budget Survey and in-depth interviews with public transport policy makers from six metropolitan areas.Transport is one of the household expenditure items that is the most affected by the crisis. The average amount spent on transport fell to its lowest value in 2013, dropping by 37% in six years. The proportion of budget spent on transport was reduced by a majority of households, whatever the residential location or purchasing power, with the exception of the poorest. Households reacted promptly to the crisis by reducing their purchases of new cars; their spending on transport use was affected less significantly. Poor households or those living in low-density areas were least able to reduce their transport costs.To cope with the crisis, public transport authorities reduced transport supply and increased fares. They also implemented other measures to bring in extra income which had no impact on transport services. The research concludes that sustainability-oriented transport policies promoting public transport and the reduction of car dependency, together with sustainable land-use policies, may help to limit the household transport budget and the impacts of an economic crisis on mobility.

Prospects for sustainable land-use policy in Germany: Experimenting with a sustainability heuristic

Land is an essential yet limited natural resource. Its current unsustainable use highlights the need for sustainability policies. In order to explore potential policy strategies, we use the concepts of stocks and durable institutions as tools for analysing temporal structures in nature and society. These concepts are incorporated into a heuristic aimed at reducing complexity and finding windows of opportunity for policy action. The heuristic is applied to current German land-use policy. We show that the German government is highly unlikely to achieve its declared sustainability goal to reduce the rate of land conversion to 30ha/day by 2020. Analysis of the inherent dynamics of major stocks and institutions reveals that, even in a situation with stagnating or declining population, the inertia of institutions such as local municipal self-administration and the municipal financial system prevents the government's sustainability goals from being achieved.

PROMOTING SUSTAINABILITY THROUGH LAND-USE PLANNING AND TECHNOLOGY

Although the overall rate of population growth has recently decreased in developed countries, population in their cities continues to grow. Urban and suburban sprawl may threaten the environment necessary to sustain livable communities. Farm and forest land and open space are important components of human life. However, they may be lost to residential and commercial development. It has become important to develop land-use regulation mechanisms that accommodate economic growth and preservation of the environment. In the United States, land-use planning systems have been employed for a long period of time. Many US States have enacted laws that protect land from uncontrolled urban sprawl. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to facilitate the process of land-use regulation. The goal of this paper is to discuss how technology-aided sustainable land-use policies are utilized in the USA at a county and city wide scale.

Archaeological evidence for pastoralist land-use and settlement in Namaqualand over the last 2000 years

Despite the extreme aridity of the region, there is good evidence that sheep were being herded in small numbers in Namaqualand up to 2000 years ago. Archaeological research at Spoegrivier Cave on the Atlantic coast confirms the presence of sheep at 2100 years ago. Increasing aridity in Namaqualand around 1300 years ago lead to the abandonment of the cave. Jakkalsberg on the banks of the Orange River in the Richtersveld was occupied around 1300 BP by people who were herding sheep rather than hunting game. People with sheep and goats were herding their livestock at Bethelsklip, in central Namaqualand, between 800 and 360 BP. The archaeological evidence clearly supports a long tradition of herding in the region. The question is whether these early herder groups are the ancestors of the Namaqua Khoekhoen pastoralists who occupied Namaqualand during historical times? Historical records from the 17 to 20th centuries testify to the seasonal transhumance of the Namaqua with cattle, sheep and goats between the Kamiesberg Mountains and the plains. On occasions pastoralist groups also moved to the interior plateau of Bushmanland to make use of the seasonal grasses after summer thunderstorms. Traditional land-use practices have a long history in the region and a study of these land-use patterns may assist in interpreting the archaeological record and in developing a sustainable land-use policy for the region.

土地利用変化の要因に関する統計的分析 広域土地利用モデル開発のための基礎的研究

Appropriate control of land use is the important key to solving global environmental problems. This analysis is a part of fundamental research for developing the global land-use model which would contribute to the establishment of sustainable land-use policies. Factors identified as important to farmland change and residential land change are examined by multiple regression techniques. The degrees of contribution of four indicator groups (natural conditions, socio-economic conditions at the beginning of the period, their temporal changes during the period and land-use at the beginning) are compared. A new conceptual scheme for land-use changes is proposed. This scheme consists of four parts: exogenous factors on the affecting side that are true “driving forces” in the ordinary sense, endogenous factors on the moderating side now termed “counter forces”, natural conditions, and land use in the base year of the study period. As expected, a variety of population factors and economic activities are detected as the driving forces. Some counter forces are also identified. The author believes that these results would be highly suggestive of building a global land-use model.