土地利用変化の要因に関する統計的分析 広域土地利用モデル開発のための基礎的研究

Abstract

Appropriate control of land use is the important key to solving global environmental problems. This analysis is a part of fundamental research for developing the global land-use model which would contribute to the establishment of sustainable land-use policies. Factors identified as important to farmland change and residential land change are examined by multiple regression techniques. The degrees of contribution of four indicator groups (natural conditions, socio-economic conditions at the beginning of the period, their temporal changes during the period and land-use at the beginning) are compared. A new conceptual scheme for land-use changes is proposed. This scheme consists of four parts: exogenous factors on the affecting side that are true “driving forces” in the ordinary sense, endogenous factors on the moderating side now termed “counter forces”, natural conditions, and land use in the base year of the study period. As expected, a variety of population factors and economic activities are detected as the driving forces. Some counter forces are also identified. The author believes that these results would be highly suggestive of building a global land-use model.