Assessing inconsistencies in historical land-use reconstructions for Africa at 1800

Abstract

Reconstructing historical land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) inevitably involves interpolation across regions for which there is limited data to support reconstructions. Here, we evaluate the extent to which the global land-use model HYDE v3.2.1 reflects historical land use in sub-Saharan Africa (including Madagascar) when compared to archaeological and historical reconstructions. Both the HYDE models and Widgren’s archaeological and historical reconstructions estimate that agriculture was widely scattered across sub-Saharan Africa in 1800 CE. However, in steep terrain, at slopes greater than 10°, the HYDE model estimated 0% cropland allocation while archaeological and historical observations suggest intensive, mixed and extensive farming was common in these areas. In addition, while HYDE allocates farmland primarily into high-quality soils, archaeological reconstructions suggest that intensive farming occurred across a wide range of soil qualities. Gaps in our knowledge of cropland distribution have significant impacts on models of biodiversity change since understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene is reliant on our understanding of past land-use changes. While HYDE’s mismatches are known, the research presented here provides an important resource in identifying where these allocation rules fail. These mismatches in global land-use models such as HYDE might also be replicated for other regions of the world, such as South America. These mismatches also need to be accounted for when generating model projections that use historical land-use models to impute present and future trends in land-use, climate and biodiversity change. Localised archaeological and historical data can therefore be used to support historical global land-use reconstructions for Africa and other regions across the world.