Watershed Sustainability Research Articles

Probability of Erosion Utilizing Google Earth Engine and the RUSLE Method in the Tuntang Watershed

The Tuntang Watershed is an important watershed in Central Java. Management of watersheds in the Tuntang stream is a priority for various parties to carry out. One of the things that threatens the sustainability of the Tuntang watershed is erosion. The erosion rate can lead to sediment accumulation and siltation in the Tuntang River reservoir, which can cause catastrophic flooding. Flood disaster mitigation caused by erosion needs to be done, one of which is by calculating the erosion rate per year that occurs in the Tuntang watershed. This study calcultated the predicted erosion rate (per year in the Tuntang watershed) using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) method, processed using the Google Earth Engine (GEE). Google offers a cloud-storage technology called GEE. Programming in JavaScript is required to operate GEE. GEE is a petabyte-scale data-based tool that can be used to analyze and archive geospatial data that is open source. The computing environment is designed for the processing of geospatial data, including the depiction of spatial analysis of satellite imagery. Data for RUSLE is obtained from the database in GEE, and the results can be imaged on a map. According to the study’s findings, the degree of soil erosion throughout the Tuntang Watershed was essentially constant, with Moderate erosion predominating in the majority of locations. Senjoyo Sub Watershed, Rowopening Sub Watershed, and Tuntang Hilir Sub Watershed are the primary locations with severe erosion. Rowopening Sub Watershed is the region that is the worst.

Assessment of sustainability in the Wulo Abiye watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia

Assessing the sustainability of watersheds holds significant importance for regional natural resource management and to achieve sustainable development. This study investigated the sustainability of the Wulo Abiye watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia. The sustainability status of the watershed was evaluated by using 17 indicators representing the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development goals (SDGs) based on the local and existing conditions of the watershed. The results indicated that environmental sustainability was at 'high' level, while social and economic sustainability and the aggregate index were at ‘moderate’ levels. The overall level of community participation in the planning and evaluation phases of watershed management was at 'low' levels. The implementation phase was at 'high' level. Overall, the sustainability status of watershed management and level of community participation were at ‘moderate’ levels. The study concluded that integrated support is needed to overcome the identified challenges to achieve sustainable development in watersheds.

Watershed rehabilitation with forest gardens in Moneragala District, Sri Lanka

Forests in mountainous watersheds sustain water flows, providing a valuable lifeline in times of no rain. The clearance and destruction of forests, for plantations and modern chena cultivation, degrades watersheds, resulting in the loss of these ecosystem services, impoverishing people and diminishing watershed sustainability. The Neo Synthesis Research Centre (NSRC) has been involved in rehabilitating Sri Lankan watersheds for over 30 years, which has included implementing forest gardens (FGs) in Maragalakanda. The article describes the rehabilitation of one farmer's land (referred to as Rani), which resulted in increased household livelihood security, reversed forest loss, and sustained watershed health. The rehabilitation efforts followed a successional process, using regenerative agriculture, analog forestry, and conservation forestry. The landscape design divided Rani’s landholding into several land uses. In addition to the forest gardens which were modelled on the adjacent forest, there were paddy fields, chena and cash crop areas, and a buffer zone between the disturbed natural forest and the landholding. Comprised of 175 different species, the forest gardens provide various regulatory ecosystem services, and over half provide food, medicine, timber, firewood, ornamentals and biopesticides, which are either used for household consumption or sold to generate income. Monitoring and evaluation revealed positive impacts on biodiversity, soil fertility, and food and income security. By 2013, Rani's landholding had become a biodiversity corridor, attracting more birds and increasing her total income to USD 32 241, mainly thanks to her forest gardens. As a result, Rani achieved financial stability, enabling her to invest in and educate all five of her children, eliminating any need to clear forests for livelihood. Despite an average FG profit of USD 24 413, challenges of increased rainfall variability, animal pests, and rising costs of purchases stress her newfound livelihood. Nonetheless, watershed rehabilitation with forest gardens succeeded in reversing forest loss, restoring ecosystem services, and increasing livelihood security. To ensure more households benefit as Rani’s did, policymakers and planners must consider population growth and allocate new lands for expanding watershed populations while implementing laws to prevent forest destruction.

Groundwater Recharge and Surface Runoff Modeling Response to Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in a Mae Wong Watershed of Thailand

This study aims to develop efficient management strategies and assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) on surface runoff modeling response dynamics for the long-term sustainability of watersheds. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the LULC dynamics on GRSR in the Mae Wong Watershed (MWW) of Thailand. Using Landsat images, three different LULC maps (2011, 2021, and 2031) were created using the cellular automata markov chain (CA-Markov) model, and TerrSet 2020 geospatial monitoring and modeling software. In the overall MWW, the forestland has undergone deforestation and decreased by 2.10% of the total area and 2.72% of the total area has been transformed into agricultural lands due to human activity and population growth. The soil, LULC, weather, and the digital elevation model (DEM) were all used in the SWAT simulation procedure. To understand the groundwater recharge and surface runoff (GRSR) responses of each hydrologic response units (HRUs), the SWAT model was calibrated and verified using streamflow and the sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) technique from the SWAT calibration and uncertainty program (SWAT-CUP). The results indicate that there is a good agreement for both the calibration and validation phases of all LULC simulations. The study indicated that groundwater recharge has decreased over the last two decades while surface runoff has increased due to the forest area being converted to agricultural land. Thus, the study can support maximizing water management and strategies for systematically attaining sustainability.

Assessing future land-uses under planning scenarios: A case study of The Brantas River Basin, Indonesia

Understanding land-use dynamics and patterns and how they respond to management scenarios helps to develop sustainable land use policies. This study simulated future land uses in Brantas River Basin (BRB), East Java, Indonesia using Land Change Modeler (LCM) under policy scenarios. Following identification of twelve important biophysical and socio-economic spatial drivers, the LCM accurately simulated land-use changes over the period 1995–2015, with validation against the 1995 land use map giving an overall accuracy of 85–88 %. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the LCM predicted that during the period 2015 to 2035 continuing deforestation may leave forest cover accounting for only 4 % of the total BRB area, and cause declines in dryland from 45 % to 40 % and in rice-field farming from 24 % to 22 %. The results of that scenario also indicate the prospect of massive urban development, increasing from 18 % of the BRB area in 2015 to 30 % in 2035, with increasing threats to food security and water resources. Both percentage changes and a mean-weighted fractal dimension index suggest increased risks of forest fragmentation and urban aggregation. A spatial planning-influenced scenario, which aims to reduce forest loss and support watershed protection, is predicted to lead to 5.5 % forest cover, 37 % dryland, 29 % rice-field farming and 24 % urban area in 2035. Sensitivity analysis of the LCM showed that the model results were more sensitive to drivers, spatial resolution, and policy scenarios than to uncertainty in model parameters. It is concluded that despite some limitations, the LCM successfully provided" insights into policy impacts on land-uses in BRB, and the roles of forest and rice-field protection in spatial planning are essential in controlling urban development for watershed sustainability.

The Role of Agroforestry to Improve Farming System Sustainability in Upper Brantas Watershed

The upper Brantas Watershed area must be conserved, especially for ecological function. On the other hand, the farmers need income to support their livelihoods. So that, the farmers prefer cultivating vegetables in highlands and on land with slopes more than 30 degrees. It will make the agricultural systems tend to be unsustainable in the long run so that it can affect the ecological function of the watershed. This research aimed to analyze the effect of agroforestry techniques on farming sustainability in the upper Brantas Watershed. The location was determined purposively in a farming system with and without an agroforestry system in Batu City. This study uses quantitative and qualitative approaches with survey techniques by field observation and interviews with the farmers and relevant stakeholders. The results showed that the application of conservation farming with the concept of agroforestry will support the farming system‘s sustainability, especially on the ecological aspect.

Challenges and opportunities in building environmental awareness in the Keduang Watershed Region in Indonesia

Watersheds are ecosystems which are crucial for water quality, biodiversity, and overall environmental sustainability. Increasing pressure from human activities such as deforestation, water pollution, and changes in land use has begun to threaten the sustainability of watersheds throughout the world. This research discusses the challenges and opportunities in building environmental awareness in a watershed region. A qualitative research method with a phenomenological approach is used to understand the experiences, attitudes, and actions of the watershed community in relation to environmental issues. The research results show the challenges faced include a lack of understanding about the watershed ecosystem, insufficient access to information technology, economic problems, and poor local leadership to support environmental preservation. An integrated environmental education program, together with community participation and development of technological innovation may offer an effective solution. Strong environmental awareness in watershed regions not only supports environmental preservation but also creates sustainable economic opportunities, strengthens environmental resilience, and improves the life quality of the community. Therefore, building environmental awareness in watershed regions is not only the job of local communities but also the shared responsibility of various stakeholders, which is needed to achieve sustainability of the river ecosystem and the broader environment.

Environmental change induced by water engineering development dominates the global watershed sustainable development issues

Introduction: Global watershed sustainable development has experienced world-wide threats from continuing anthropogenic stressors, and the need to deepen and broaden research encompassing the intersection in global environmental change as well as environmentally oriented watershed sustainable development (EOWSD) has been noticed. However, there is not yet a widely recognized cognition on the applicability and scope of various EOWSD issues, and the zoning of global EOWSD issues is remains uncertain despite it is crucial for achieving global watershed sustainable development.Methods: This research was conducted to both clarify the zoning and evolution of various EOWSD issues around the world, and differentiate the relative impacts on EOWSD of climate change and human activities. The global EOWSD issues were summarized from 62 watersheds around the world as 6 categories associated with different aspects of global watershed sustainability. And the partition method, in which the spatial and temporal variations of global summer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in summer were examined and the quantitative climate classification were conducted, indicates a clear and definite relationship between the zoning of EOWSD issues and 8 natural geographical zones. Meanwhile, we selected 34 watersheds either or both are the 100 most populous river basins and the 100 largest (by area) river basins in the world from the 62 watersheds to assess relative effects of human impact on watershed sustainability.Results: Results from the numerical analyses of baseline water stress (BWS) values, which was used to provide a robust measure of human impact and evaluate the impact and relative importance of human-induced changes on watershed sustainability, indicate that the human activities do not affect the zoning of EOWSD issues at global scale while the environmental change induced by water engineering development should be certain to affect that on the long-term.Discussion: Our findings present a new perspective to illustrate the relationship among global EOWSD, environmental change and human impacts, and will also provide a scientific basis on setting future emphasizes of global watershed sustainable development and furthering the related disciplines.

A watershed sustainability model based on the integration of livestock, conservation agriculture, and local wisdom in Indonesia

Watersheds play an important role in maintaining the balance of the ecosystem and protecting water resources. However, there are currently a number of environmental problems which threaten the sustainability of this ecosystem. The goal of this research is to describe a watershed sustainability model to deal with these problems. The research was carried out in the Keduang Watershed in Wonogiri Regency, Central Java Province. A qualitative research method was used to gain a deep and comprehensive understanding and to adapt current methods to the developing situation through the integration of livestock, conservation agriculture, and local wisdom. The secondary data collected included the agriculture, livestock farming, and conservation conditions. The primary data were obtained through participative observation and in-depth interviews with farmers, livestock breeders, and stakeholders, to understand the practices used, the challenges faced, and the benefits felt. The data analysis used a process of coding, thematization, and grouping to identify the patterns, themes, and perspectives that emerged. The interpretation of results included an evaluation of the success, challenges, and benefits of the model applied. The research results show that the watershed sustainability model based on the integration of livestock, conservation agriculture, and local wisdom has a positive impact on economic, socio-cultural, and environmental aspects. This model can serve as a strong foundation for implementing sustainable agriculture and livestock farming practices, as well as contributing to the conservation of natural resources, and preserving local wisdom.

Vulnerability of Water Resources to Drought Risk in Southeastern Morocco: Case Study of Ziz Basin

Water resources in Morocco have been severely influenced by climate change and prolonged drought, particularly in the pre-Saharan zone. The Ziz watershed faces increasing pressure due to the high demographic growth, increased demand for water, excessive groundwater consumption, and investment in agriculture. But how long will water resources withstand these problems? This study, therefore, enters into the context of the assessment of water resources and estimates their vulnerability using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI), on data from the Ziz watershed from 1986 to 2016. Additionally, climate projections were utilized to simulate the future SGI from 2017 to 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) was employed to evaluate changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) during the period of 1992–2020, and to generate future scenarios for land class inflows and outflows from 2017 to 2100, in comparison to the reference period of 1986–2016, thereby incorporating the SSP climate scenarios. The results indicate that the Ziz Basin experienced significant drought events in 1986–1989 and 2000–2003. The SPI and SPEI significantly correlated with SGI in some monitoring wells and with specific accumulation periods. The LULC analysis showed an increase in agricultural land and urban land and a decrease in barren or sparse land. Climate data analysis and scenarios predict that under SSP5-8.5, minimum and maximum temperatures will increase by 2.61 °C and 2.93 °C, respectively, and precipitation will decrease by 30% over this century. This substantial shift in climate conditions is reflected in the decline in SGIs, especially in the long term under SSP5-8.5. Water availability will decrease during this century under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, as reflected in reduced land class inflows and increased outflows. These findings emphasize the need for stakeholders to implement integrated water governance for sustainability in the Ziz watershed.

Application of Sustainability Index of Tidal River Management (SITRM) in the Lower Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta

The sustainability index (SI) is a relatively new concept for measuring the performance of water resource systems over long time periods. The purpose of its definition is to provide an indication of the integral behavior of the system with regard to possible undesired consequences if a misbalance in available and required waters occurs. Therefore, the tidal river management (TRM) approach has been implemented for the past three decades (from 1990 to 2020) within the polder system in Southwest Bangladesh to achieve water sustainability. TRM plan and watershed management plan (WMP) have commonalities as both are aimed at ensuring the sustainable use of watershed resources with the management of land, water, and the wider ecosystem of the watershed in an integrated way. The TRM plan focuses mostly on coastal regions, whereas the WMP focuses on both coastal and non-coastal regions. According to this, the aim of this study was to explore the application of the sustainability index of tidal river management (SITRM) in measuring the sustainability of tidal river management in the coastal area of the Lower Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) delta. In order to quantify the sustainability of tidal river management, this research first provided the components and indicators of SITRM for the coastal region. The study follows a 5-point Likert scale for opinion survey of key informants and comprises households’ survey of farmers. In addition, it includes Landsat satellite images from Earth Explorer of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and direct field observation to collect information regarding the indicators of SITRM. The study measures the index value of SITRM for identifying the water sustainability of Beel East Khukshia-TRM. The index value was 71.8 out of 100, showing good tidal river management for the Hari–Teka–Bhadra catchment. To achieve water sustainability and aid stakeholders and water managers in decision making, it may be possible to include the SITRM framework in tidal river management projects. In addition, the SITRM is more capable of facing drainage congestion, waterlogging, and climate change issues than watershed sustainability index (WSI), Canadian water sustainability index (CWSI), West Java water sustainability index (WJWSI), and water poverty index (WPI). Therefore, water professionals and policymakers can apply SITRM to assess the resilience of specific TRM schemes for greater sustainability in different coastal regions of the world.

Integrating Social-Economic Approaches for Integrated Watershed Management and Coastal Area

Integrated watershed management is a holistic and sustainable approach in managing water resources and the environment associated with river flow. One of the important aspects in integrated watershed management is to pay attention to the socio-economic aspects of the people living around the river. In many places in Indonesia, watershed bears a heavy burden due to its high population density and intensive utilization of natural resources, leading to environmental degradation and a decline in watershed conditions. On the other hand, the demands on watershed to support livelihood systems, including community activities and fisheries from upstream to downstream, coastal areas, and the sea, are substantial. The purpose of the study was to identify the socio-economic situation of the community and how to manage the watershed with the approach of the socio-economic aspects of the community. The method used was Qualitative analysis with observation, deep interview, and questionary. The purpose of the study was to identify the socio-economic situation of the community and how to manage the watershed with the approach of the socio-economic aspects of the community. The method used was Qualitative analysis with observation, deep interview, and questionary. The results showed that education level in the upstream area is higher than the downstream area. The level of education, employment, and community income can affect their attitudes and participation in watershed management activities. Communities who have higher education, jobs related to watersheds and coastal areas, and adequate income tend to be more active and aware of maintaining the sustainability of watersheds and coastal areas.

Optimization of integrated watershed recovery: comparison of management systems in Japan and Indonesia

As a country prone to hydrometeorological disaster and demographic problems, Japan is very concerned about integrated watershed sustainability, as a preventive and sustainable water resource in the future. In contrast to Indonesia, the rapid population growth encourages various activities in the upstream such as encroachment, conversion to agricultural land, settlements, and other economic activities causing land degradation and environmental quality to decline. The critical watershed recovery program has been carried out for a long time, but until now this problem has not been resolved. This study aims to determine the best integrated watershed management system that can be applied to accelerate the recovery of critical watersheds in Indonesia. This study uses a qualitative approach, with a comparative descriptive method to compare watershed management in Japan and Indonesia based on a literature study. It was found that land rehabilitation activities through replanting upstream watershed areas require collaboration in comprehensive and integrated management from upstream to downstream. The practice of inter-regional cooperation and community involvement through cross-subsidized funding and joint restoration activities is a scheme that needs to be considered for accelerating watershed recovery, accompanied by the integrity of the parties and a transparent and accountable monitoring system.

Effect of rainfall on assessment of hydrologic sustainability in Citanduy sub-watersheds

Hydrology is one of the criteria for monitoring and evaluation (monev) of watersheds management as stated in the Minister of Forestry Regulation Number P.61/Menhut-II/2014. So far, the use of various hydrological parameters for the monev of watersheds has not been evaluated whether these parameters truly reflect the condition of the watershed. This study aimed (1) to evaluate the effect of rainfall on the hydrological criteria of each sub-watershed, which include: flow regime coefficient, annual flow coefficient, sediment load, and water use index and (2) to evaluate the effect of rainfall on watershed carrying capacity. Regression analysis was used to see the relationship between annual rainfall and hydrological parameters used in watershed sustainability. This analysis was crucial to see the development of forest and land rehabilitation efforts in restoring degraded land. Data collection was carried out from 2008 to 2016 in each of the sub-watersheds of the Citanduy Watershed, namely Cijolang, Cikawung, Cimuntur, Ciseel, and Upper Citanduy. From this research, it is known that flow regime coefficient, annual flow coefficient, sediment load, water use index, and flood frequency are strongly influenced by rainfall so the result in evaluating watershed carrying capacity may vary depending on the rainfall. Besides being influenced by rainfall, flow regime coefficient, annual flow coefficient, and sediment load are also affected by land cover, while the slope affects the sediment load.

Komering wathersed land conservation under The Marga System

In the 1980s, efforts to integrate regions across Indonesia, especially South Sumatra, led to the elimination of customary law and customary government. Before the introduction of the Undang-Undang Desa (Village Government Law), South Sumatra’s customary government had adopted a customary government system known as the Marga system. This study employs a spatial methodology, combining historical maps and satellite pictures as data sources, to examine the level of deforestation in the Komering watershed from before the Marga government was dissolved till after it was abolished. In addition, the purpose of this study is to determine the function of customary law in preserving environmental sustainability in the Komering watershed. The results of processing the topographic map from 1910 were then compared to the results of processing the Sentinel-2 satellite image to see how the level of the land had changed over a century. The annual average rate of deforestation is around 274,944 ha per year. That is, there have been significant changes in land usage for 109 years. Part of the forest is converted into fields and plantations, while the majority of the swamps and marshes are converted into rice fields. The impetus for this transformation began in 1983, when the Marga government system was abolished. Long in charge of South Sumatra, the Marga Government System has already established regulations for conserving its natural resources. The system is a successful method for managing watersheds because of its pattern of limited land cover on slopes and along rivers. The inhabitants of South Sumatra are ruled by a system of Marga, and their daily lives are guided by the customary law. The Simbur Cahaya Customary Law controls sociopolitical connections between communities. The management of these relationships appears to be an effort to safeguard shared resources, such as forest timber plants and riverbank land. Consequently, customary law plays a vital role in protecting the environment, especially forest land and njurung land (mid-channel bar).

Development of a Watershed Sustainability Index for the Santiago River Basin, Mexico

Sustainability indices are a way of quantifying the progress that a certain region has achieved in terms of sustainability that can be transmitted to society and decision makers. The watershed approach has become relevant for managing water resources and ensuring their sustainability. This study combined the above two approaches by applying an adapted watershed sustainability index (WSI) to evaluate the sustainable development of the Santiago–Guadalajara River basin (SGRB), which passes through Guadalajara, the second-most populous city in Mexico. The river is the most polluted waterway in the country. The WSI of each sub-basin places the SGRB at a sustainability level between low in the upper and lower basin region and intermediate in the central basin region. Regions with a low sustainability level are characterized by environmental degradation due to changes in land use, while in the region with intermediate sustainability, the factor that most affect the evaluation is water availability. An overall sustainability score of WSI = 0.36 was obtained for the study area, which is lower than that of any other basins evaluated in the same manner around the world. These results send a clear message to decision makers of the three government levels, in charge of the environmental sustainability of the basin, of the need to take action to facilitate its recovery.

Forest Management Units’ Role in Conserving and Maintaining Watershed Sustainability to Support Electrical Energy

The Indonesian government developed environmentally electrical power, such as a Bakaru hydroelectric power plant (Bakaru PLTA). The Bakaru PLTA is located in the Mamasa sub-watershed. Some parts of the Mamasa sub-watershed are managed by three Forest Management Units (FMU): Mamasa Tengah FMU, Mamasa Timur FMU, and Sawitto FMU. Previous studies indicated that land-use change was a driving factor in decreasing water discharge and increasing sedimentation. Therefore, it is crucial to discover the role and influence of FMU conditions on the performance of the Bakaru PLTA. This study aims to determine Mamasa sub-watershed conditions, especially FMUs areas, to see the contribution and strategies that FMUs can carry out to support the energy production of the PLTA Bakaru. This research used the literature study method and overlaid several maps. The study showed that FMUs faced erosion, sedimentation, and degraded land, influencing Bakaru PLTA performance. The study recommends that rehabilitation be prioritized on the degraded and very degraded land categories at 27 villages in Mamasa Timur FMU, 18 villages in Mamasa Tengah FMU, and eight villages in Sawitto FMU.

Assessing watershed sustainability with automatic expert-based methods and managers’ preferences

Assessing watershed sustainability with automatic expert-based methods and managers’ preferences

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Services Driven by Human Modification over the Past Seven Decades: A Case Study of Sihu Agricultural Watershed, China

Understanding the effects of human modification on ecosystem services is critical for effectively managing multiple services and achieving long-term sustainability. The historical dynamics of ecosystem services are important for detecting the impacts before and after intensive modification and deserve further study. To this end, we quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of 11 ecosystem services across the Sihu agricultural watershed in 1954, 1983, 2001, and 2018. We used the Spearman coefficient, self-organized maps clustering, and redundancy analysis to explore the spatial patterns and potential modification drivers of temporal variations of ecosystem service provision. The results revealed the following: (1) The spatial correlations among ecosystem services in a single year were inconsistent with the ecosystem service change associations during two-time steps. The snapshot correlations at one time led to misunderstandings (such as water yield and runoff control or soil carbon sequestration, and habitat quality changed direction from synergy to trade-off) and missed synergies (such as water purification and recreational potential); (2) Most ecosystem services could be synergetic in one bundle with multifunctionality before intensive modification, but later transformed to single or limited services dominated bundles, especially in lake-polder areas; (3) Lake reclamation and hydraulic infrastructure were the most significant modification indicators explaining the variation of ecosystem services (30.9% of variance explained by lake reclamation in 1954, 38.2% of variance explained by hydraulic infrastructure in 2018). Meanwhile, changes in dominant drivers also indicated the transition from lake-based ecosystem service supply to engineered service. An improved understanding of the spatiotemporal pattern of ecosystem services and the underlying human modification influence is vital for realizing the sustainability and multifunctionality of agricultural watershed.

GIS-Based Soil Erosion Risk Assessment in the Watersheds of Bukidnon, Philippines Using the RUSLE Model

The sustainability of watersheds for supplying water and for carbon sequestration and other environmental services depends to a large extent on their susceptibility to soil erosion, particularly under changing climate. This study aimed to assess the risk of soil erosion in the watersheds in Bukidnon, Philippines, determine the spatial distribution of soil loss based on recent land cover maps, and predict soil loss under various rainfall scenarios based on recently reported climate change projections. The soil erosion risk assessment and soil loss prediction made use of GIS and the RUSLE model, while the rainfall scenarios were formulated based on PAGASA’s prediction of drier years for Bukidnon in the early-future to late-future. Results showed that a general increase in soil loss was observed in 2015, over the period from 2010 to 2020, although some watershed clusters also showed a declining trend of soil erosion, particularly the Agusan-Cugman and Maridugao watershed clusters. Nearly 60% of Bukidnon has high to very severe soil loss rates. Under extreme rainfall change scenario with 12.61% less annual rainfall, the soil loss changes were only +1.37% and −2.87% in the category of none-to-slight and very severe, respectively. Results showed that a decrease in rainfall would have little effect on resolving the excessive soil erosion problem in Bukidnon. Results of this study suggest that having more vegetative land cover and employing soil conservation measures may prove to be effective in minimizing the risk of soil erosion in the watersheds. This study provides valuable information to enhance the sustainability of the watersheds. The erosion-prone areas identified will help decision-makers identify priority areas for soil conservation and environmental protection.