Survival In Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Research Articles

Development of a local nomogram‐based scoring system for predicting overall survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: A rural Appalachian experience

AbstractBackgroundAccurate staging systems are essential for assessing the severity of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and guiding clinical management. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of pulmonary comorbidities and body mass index (BMI) in IPF, develop a nomogram predicting overall survival (OS), and create a nomogram‐based survival prediction model.MethodsPatients with IPF were identified from electronic medical records of the West Virginia hospital system. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) Cox regression analysis was used for variable selection, and a nomogram was constructed. Risk groups were defined based on the nomogram's probability tertiles. The performance of the nomogram‐based model was evaluated using Harrell's concordance index (C‐index) and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test.ResultsThe study included 152 patients with IPF. The majority of the patients were elderly, male, and had a BMI above 24 kg/m2. The median survival duration was 7.6 years. The survival rates were 91% at 1 year, 78% at 3 years, and 68% at 5 years. LASSO regression selected carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity percentage predicted (DLco%), BMI, pulmonary hypertension, pulmonary embolism, and sleep apnea as independent predictive variables. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination (C‐index = 0.71) and calibration.ConclusionsPulmonary comorbidities and BMI have significant prognostic value in IPF, emphasizing the necessity for consistent screening, assessment, and management of these factors in IPF care. Furthermore, the nomogram‐based staging system showed promising performance in predicting OS and represents an actionable staging system that could potentially improve clinical management in IPF. Further validation of the nomogram is warranted to confirm its utility in clinical practice.

Serum soluble isoform of receptor for advanced glycation end product is a predictive biomarker for acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a German and Japanese cohort study

BackgroundThe receptor for advanced glycation end product (RAGE) is a transmembrane receptor accelerating a pro-inflammatory signal. RAGE signalling is promoted by decreased soluble isoform of RAGE (sRAGE), which is a decoy receptor for RAGE ligands, and RAGE SNP rs2070600 minor allele. In Caucasian and Japanese cohorts, low circulatory sRAGE levels and presence of the minor allele are associated with poor survival of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and increased disease susceptibility to interstitial lung disease, respectively. However, whether sRAGE and RAGE SNP rs2070600 are associated with acute exacerbation of IPF (AE-IPF) is unclear.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study evaluated the association between the onset of AE-IPF and serum sRAGE levels in 69 German and 102 Japanese patients with IPF. The association of AE-IPF with RAGE SNP rs2070600 in 51 German and 84 Japanese patients, whose DNA samples were stored, was also investigated.ResultsIn each cohort, the incidence of AE-IPF was significantly and reproducibly higher in the patients with sRAGE < 467.1 pg/mL. In a pooled exploratory analysis, the incidence of AE-IPF was lowest in the patients with higher sRAGE levels and rs2070600 minor allele, although no significant difference in the incidence was observed between the patients with and without the rs2070600 minor allele.ConclusionsLow sRAGE levels were associated with increased incidence of AE-IPF in two independent cohorts of different ethnicities. The combination of rs2070600 and sRAGE levels may stratify patients with IPF for the risk of AE.

Rare variants and survival of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

The clinical course of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is highly variable and unpredictable, with multiple genetic variants influencing IPF outcomes. Notably, rare pathogenic variants in telomere-related genes are associated with poorer clinical outcomes in these patients. Here we assessed whether rare qualifying variants (QVs) in monogenic adult-onset pulmonary fibrosis (PF) genes are associated with IPF survival. Using polygenic risk scores (PRS), we also evaluated the influence of common IPF risk variants in individuals carrying these QVs. We identified QVs in telomere and non-telomere genes linked to monogenic PF forms using whole-genome sequences (WGS) from 888 Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (PFFPR) individuals. We also derived a PRS for IPF (PRS-IPF) from 19 previously published common sentinel IPF variants. Using regression models, we then examined the mutual relationships of QVs and PRS-IPF and their association with survival. Validation of results was sought in WGS from an independent IPF study (PROFILE, n=472), and results from the two cohorts were meta-analyzed. Carriers of QVs in monogenic adult-onset PF genes, representing nearly 1 out of 6 IPF patients, were associated with lower PRS-IPF (Odds Ratio [OR]: 1.79; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.15-2.81; p=0.010) and shorter survival (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.12-2.10; p=7.3×10-3). Notably, carriers of pathogenic variants at telomere genes showed the strongest association with survival (HR: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.13-2.76; p=0.013). The meta-analysis of the results showed a consistent direction of effect across both cohorts. We revealed the opposite effects of QVs and PRS-IPF on IPF survival. Thus, a distinct IPF molecular subtype might be defined by QVs in monogenic adult-onset PF genes. Assessing the carrier status for QVs and modelling PRS-IPF promises to further contribute to predicting disease progression among IPF patients.

Fibroblast activation protein and disease severity, progression, and survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterized by progressive fibrosis in the lungs. Activated fibroblasts play a central role in fibrogenesis and express fibroblast activation protein α. A truncated, soluble form (sFAP) can be measured in blood and is a potential novel biomarker of disease activity. The aim was to study the association between sFAP and clinical, radiological, and histopathological measures of disease severity, progression, and survival in a prospective, multicentre, real-world cohort of patients with IPF. Patients with IPF were recruited from the tertiary interstitial lung disease centres in Denmark and followed for up to 3 years. Baseline serum levels of sFAP were measured by ELISA in patients with IPF and compared to healthy controls. Pulmonary function tests, 6-minute walk test and quality of life measures were performed at baseline and during follow-up. The study included 149 patients with IPF. Median sFAP in IPF was 49.6 ng/mL (IQR: 43.1-61.6 ng/mL) and in healthy controls 73.8 ng/mL (IQR: 62.1-92.0 ng/mL). Continuous sFAP was not associated with disease severity, progression or survival (p > 0.05). After dichotomization of sFAP below or above mean sFAP + 2 SD for healthy controls, higher levels of sFAP were associated with lower FVC % predicted during follow-up (p < 0.01). Higher than normal serum levels of sFAP were associated with longitudinal changes in FVC % predicted, but sFAP did not show clear associations with other baseline or longitudinal parameters. As such, sFAP has limited use as a biomarker of disease progression or survival in patients with IPF.

Serum metalloproteinase-7 as a biomarker of progressive pulmonary fibrosis.

Progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) corresponds to any fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) that presents clinical, physiological and/or radiological evidence of disease progression similar to IPF. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis and are associated with disease progression and reduced survival in IPF and other fibrotic ILDs. This study aimed to investigate the role of serum levels of MMP-1 and MMP-7 in patients with fibrotic non-IPF ILD as possible biomarkers of patients at risk of developing PPF. Newly diagnosed patients with fibrotic non-IPF ILD were included in this study. Serum levels of MMP-1 and MMP-7 were quantified at baseline and disease progression was monitored. PPF was defined according to the recent European Respiratory Society, American Thoracic Society, Japanese Respiratory Society and the Latin American Thoracic Society Clinical Practice Guidelines. 79 patients with fibrotic non-IPF ILDs were included and classified as having PPF or non-PPF. Significantly higher levels of MMP-7, but not MMP-1, were detected in the PPF group (p=0.01). MMP-7 was independently associated with PPF (adjusted OR 1.263, 95% CI 1.029-1.551; p=0.026) after adjustment for sex, age and smoking history. A cut-off value of 3.53 ng·mL-1 for serum MMP-7 levels had a sensitivity of 61% and a specificity of 74% for predicting PPF in non-IPF ILDs. In patients with fibrotic non-IPF ILDs, serum MMP-7 levels were significantly greater in the subgroup of patients meeting the PPF criteria at follow-up. This can be considered and further investigated as a possible biomarker to identify fibrotic ILD patients at risk of PPF.

Assessment of the impact of social deprivation, distance to hospital and time to diagnosis on survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BackgroundIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive condition associated with a variable prognosis. The relationship between socioeconomic status or distance travelled to respiratory clinics and prognosis is unclear. Research questionTo determine whether socioeconomic status, distance to hospital and time to referral affects survival in patients with IPF. Study design and methodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we used data collected from the British Thoracic Society Interstitial Lung Diseases Registry, between 2013 and 2021 (n = 2359) and calculated the quintile of Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019 score, time from initial symptoms to hospital attendance and distance as the linear distance between hospital and home post codes. Survival was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. ResultsThere was a significant association between increasing quintile of deprivation and duration of symptoms prior to hospital presentation, Gender Age Physiology (GAP) index and receipt of supplemental oxygen and antifibrotic therapies at presentation. The most deprived patients had worse overall survival compared to least deprived after adjusting for smoking status, GAP index, distance to hospital and time to referral (HR = 1.39 [1.11, 1.73]; p = 0.003). Patients living furthest from a respiratory clinic also had worse survival compared to those living closest (HR = 1.29 [1.01, 1.64]; p = 0.041). InterpretationThe most deprived patients with IPF have more severe disease at presentation and worse outcomes. Living far from hospital was also associated with poor outcomes. This suggests inequalities in access to healthcare and requires consideration in delivering effective and equitable care to patients with IPF.

Survival and Lung Function Changes in Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis According to Radiological Phenotypes Compared With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

The main objective of this study was to estimate survival and changes in lung function in patients with chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP), both fibrotic (f-HP) and nonfibrotic (nf-HP), and to compare them with those in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). HP was diagnosed based on antigen exposure, HRCT (high-resolution CT scan), BAL (bronchoalveolar lavage), and histology. According to HRCT, HP was classified into fibrotic and non-fibrotic phenotypes. In most cases, IPF was diagnosed based on HRCT findings. We identified 84 patients: 46 with IPF, 18 with f-HP, and 20 with nf-HP. Five-year survival was 23.9% in IPF, 72% in f-HP, and 100% in nf-HP (p <0.0001). Honeycombing was associated with decreased survival in IPF (p <0.001) and in f-HP (p <0.0001). The mean loss of FVC (forced vital capacity) % pred. (percent predicted) was -18.3% in IPF (p =0.001), -4.8% in f-HP, and -6.0% in nf-HP. The mean change in DLCO (diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide) % pred. was -10.2% in IPF (p <0.002), -0.5% in f-HP, and +1.9% in nf-HP. The agreement between radiological phenotypes and histology in HP was 89.6%. We found shorter survival in IPF, followed by f-HP, and nf-HP. Over time, we did not find significant changes in FVC% pred. or DLCO% pred. in HP, while a significant decline in IPF was noted. In HP, we found strong agreement between radiological phenotypes and histology. Radiological signs suggestive of lung fibrosis in HP were reliable for the diagnosis of f-HP and seem to have intrinsic prognostic value.

Mass spectrometry-based autoimmune profiling reveals predictive autoantigens in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Autoimmunity plays a role in certain types of lung fibrosis, notably connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD). In idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), an incurable and fatal lung disease, diagnosis typically requires clinical exclusion of autoimmunity. However, autoantibodies of unknown significance have been detected in IPF patients. We conducted computational analysis of B cell transcriptomes in published transcriptomics datasets and developed a proteomic Differential Antigen Capture (DAC) assay that captures plasma antibodies followed by affinity purification of lung proteins coupled to mass spectrometry. We analyzed antibody capture in two independent cohorts of IPF and CTL-ILD patients over two disease progression time points. Our findings revealed significant upregulation of specific immunoglobulins with V-segment bias in IPF across multiple cohorts. We identified a predictive autoimmune signature linked to reduced transplant-free survival in IPF, persisting over time. Notably, autoantibodies against thrombospondin-1 were associated with decreased survival, suggesting their potential as predictive biomarkers.

Proteomic Biomarkers of Survival in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) causes progressive lung scarring and high mortality. Reliable and accurate prognostic biomarkers are urgently needed. Objectives: To identify and validate circulating protein biomarkers of IPF survival. Methods: High-throughput proteomic data were generated using prospectively collected plasma samples from patients with IPF from the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (discovery cohort) and the Universities of California, Davis; Chicago; and Virginia (validation cohort). Proteins associated with three-year transplant-free survival (TFS) were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Those associated with TFS after adjustment for false discovery in the discovery cohort were advanced for testing in the validation cohort, with proteins maintaining TFS association with consistent effect direction considered validated. After combining cohorts, functional analyses were performed, and machine learning was used to derive a proteomic signature of TFS. Measurements and Main Results: Of 2,921 proteins tested in the discovery cohort (n = 871), 231 were associated with differential TFS. Of these, 140 maintained TFS association with consistent effect direction in the validation cohort (n = 355). After cohorts were combined, the validated proteins with the strongest TFS association were latent-transforming growth factor β-binding protein 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 2.43; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.09-2.82), collagen α-1(XXIV) chain (HR, 2.21; 95% CI = 1.86-2.39), and keratin 19 (HR, 1.60; 95% CI = 1.47-1.74). In decision curve analysis, a proteomic signature of TFS outperformed a similarly derived clinical prediction model. Conclusions: In the largest proteomic investigation of IPF outcomes performed to date, we identified and validated 140 protein biomarkers of TFS. These results shed important light on potential drivers of IPF progression.

Serum C-reactive protein is associated with earlier mortality across different interstitial lung diseases.

The acute-phase protein C-reactive protein (CRP) is known to be associated with poor outcomes in cancer and cardiovascular disease, but there is limited evidence of its prognostic implications in interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). We therefore set out to test whether baseline serum CRP levels are associated with mortality in four different ILDs. In this retrospective study, clinically measured CRP levels, as well as baseline demographics and lung function measures, were collected for ILD patients first presenting to the Royal Brompton Hospital between January 2010 and December 2019. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the relationship with 5-year mortality. Patients included in the study were: idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) n = 422, fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP) n = 233, rheumatoid arthritis associated ILD (RA-ILD) n = 111 and Systemic Sclerosis associated ILD (SSc-ILD) n = 86. Patients with a recent history of infection were excluded. Higher CRP levels were associated with shorter 5-year survival in all four disease groups on both univariable analyses, and after adjusting for age, gender, smoking history, immunosuppressive therapy and baseline disease severity (IPF: HR (95% CI): 1.3 (1.1-1.5), p = 0.003, fHP: 1.5 (1.2-1.9), p = 0.001, RA-ILD: 1.4 (1.1-1.84), p = 0.01 and SSc-ILD: 2.7 (1.6-4.5), p < 0.001). Higher CRP levels are independently associated with reduced 5-year survival in IPF, fHP, RA-ILD and SSc-ILD.

Reassessing the association of MUC5B with survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

A variant in the mucin 5B gene (MUC5B) is strongly associated with the risk of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. However, the same variant is associated with increased survival time. Previous work suggested that this may be explained by index event bias, with the true effect being to decrease survival. Here, we reassessed this claim using more recent methods and datasets. We found that the statistical assumptions of the previous analysis did not hold, and instead, we applied recent methods of corrected weighted least squares, MR-RAPS and Slope-hunter to both the previous data and an updated consortium meta-analysis. However, these analyses did not yield robust evidence for increased or decreased survival. In simulations of a true effect of decreased survival, we did not observe any realistic scenario in which index event bias led to an observed effect of increased survival. We therefore regard as unsafe the claim that MUC5B has a true effect of decreased survival. Alternative explanations should be sought to explain the observed association with increased survival.

Historical eye on IPF: a cohort study redefining the mortality scenario.

Therapies that slow idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) progression are now available and recent studies suggest that the use of antifibrotic therapy may reduce IPF mortality. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether, to what extent, and for which factors the survival of IPF in a real-life setting has changed in the last 15 years. Historical eye is an observational study of a large cohort of consecutive IPF patients diagnosed and treated in a referral center for ILDs with prospective intention. We recruited all consecutive IPF patients seen at GB Morgagni Hospital, Forlì, Italy between January 2002 and December 2016 (15 years). We used survival analysis methods to describe and model the time to death or lung transplant and Cox regression to model prevalent and incident patient characteristics (time-dependent Cox models were fitted). The study comprised 634 patients. The year 2012 identifies the time point of mortality shift (HR 0.58, CI 0.46-0.63, p < 0.001). In the more recent cohort, more patients had better preserved lung function, underwent cryobiopsy instead of surgery, and were treated with antifibrotics. Highly significant negative prognostic factors were lung cancer (HR 4.46, 95% CI 3.3-6, p < 0.001), hospitalizations (HR 8.37, 95% CI 6.5-10.7, p < 0.001), and acute exacerbations (HR 8.37, 95% CI 6.52-10.7, p < 0.001). The average antifibrotic treatment effect estimated using propensity score matching showed a significant effect in the reduction of all-cause mortality (ATE coeff -0.23, SE 0.04, p < 0.001), acute exacerbations (ATE coeff -0.15, SE 0.04, p < 0.001), and hospitalizations (ATE coeff -0.15, SE 0.04, p < 0.001) but no effect on lung cancer risk (ATE coeff -0.03, SE 0.03, p = 0.4). Antifibrotic drugs significantly impact hospitalizations, acute exacerbations, and IPF survival. After the introduction of cryobiopsy and antifibrotic drugs, the prognosis of IPF patients has significantly improved together with our ability to detect IPF at an earlier stage.

The effect of nintedanib on lung functions and survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: real-life analysis of the Czech EMPIRE registry

IntroductionThe antifibrotic drug nintedanib is used for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We analysed the effect of nintedanib on antifibrotic treatment outcome in real-world cohorts of Czech EMPIRE registry.Patients/methodsData of 611 Czech IPF subjects, 430 (70%) treated with nintedanib (NIN group), 181 (30%) with no-antifibrotic treatment (NAF group) were analysed. The influence of nintedanib on overall survival (OS), pulmonary function parameters as forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing lung capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO), as well as GAP score (gender, age, physiology) and and CPI (composite physiological index) were investigated.ResultsDuring 2 year follow-up we observed that nintedanib treated patients had longer OS, compared to those treated with no-antifibrotic drugs (p < 0.00001). Nintedanib reduces risk of mortality over no-antifibrotic treatment by 55% (p < 0.001). We have observed no significant difference in the rate of FVC and DLCO decline between the NIN and NAF group. Changes within 24 months from baseline in CPI were not significant between the groups (NAF and NIN).ConclusionOur real-practice study showed the benefit of nintedanib treatment on survival. There were no significant differences between NIN and NAF groups in changes from baseline in FVC %, DLCO % predicted and CPI.

The influence of immortal time bias in observational studies examining associations of antifibrotic therapy with survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: A simulation study.

Immortal time bias (ITB) has been overlooked in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We aimed to identify the presence of ITB in observational studies examining associations between antifibrotic therapy and survival in patients with IPF and illustrate how ITB may affect effect size estimates of those associations. Immortal time bias was identified in observational studies using the ITB Study Assessment Checklist. We used a simulation study to illustrate how ITB may affect effect size estimates of antifibrotic therapy on survival in patients with IPF based on four statistical techniques including time-fixed, exclusion, time-dependent and landmark methods. Of the 16 included IPF studies, ITB was detected in 14 studies, while there were insufficient data for assessment in two others. Our simulation study showed that use of time-fixed [hazard ratio (HR) 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.64] and exclusion methods (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.92) overestimated the effectiveness of antifibrotic therapy on survival in simulated subjects with IPF, in comparison of the time-dependent method (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.79-1.09). The influence of ITB was mitigated using the 1 year landmark method (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.58-0.81), compared to the time-fixed method. The effectiveness of antifibrotic therapy on survival in IPF can be overestimated in observational studies, if ITB is mishandled. This study adds to the evidence for addressing the influence of ITB in IPF and provides several recommendations to minimize ITB. Identifying the presence of ITB should be routinely considered in future IPF studies, with the time-dependent method being an optimal approach to minimize ITB.

Prognostic value of deep learning–based fibrosis quantification on chest CT in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

To investigate the prognostic value of deep learning (DL)-driven CT fibrosis quantification in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Patients diagnosed with IPF who underwent nonenhanced chest CT and spirometry between 2005 and 2009 were retrospectively collected. Proportions of normal (CT-Norm%) and fibrotic lung volume (CT-Fib%) were calculated on CT using the DL software. The correlations of CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% with forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide (DLCO) were evaluated. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% for overall survival were calculated with clinical and physiologic variables as covariates using Cox regression. The feasibility of substituting CT-Norm% for DLCO in the GAP index was investigated using time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (TD-AUCs) at 3years. In total, 161 patients (median age [IQR], 68 [62-73] years; 104 men) were evaluated. CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% showed significant correlations with FVC (Pearson's r, 0.40 for CT-Norm% and - 0.37 for CT-Fib%; both p < 0.001) and DLCO (0.52 for CT-Norm% and - 0.46 for CT-Fib%; both p < 0.001). On multivariable Cox regression, both CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% were independent prognostic factors when adjusted to age, sex, smoking status, comorbid chronic diseases, FVC, and DLCO (HRs, 0.98 [95% CI 0.97-0.99; p < 0.001] for CT-Norm% at 3years and 1.03 [1.01-1.05; p = 0.01] for CT-Fib%). Substituting CT-Norm% for DLCO showed comparable discrimination to the original GAP index (TD-AUC, 0.82 [0.78-0.85] vs. 0.82 [0.79-0.86]; p = 0.75). CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% calculated using chest CT-based deep learning software were independent prognostic factors for overall survival in IPF. • Normal and fibrotic lung volume proportions were automatically calculated using commercial deep learning software from chest CT taken from 161 patients diagnosed with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. • CT-quantified volumetric parameters from commercial deep learning software were correlated with forced vital capacity (Pearson's r, 0.40 for normal and - 0.37 for fibrotic lung volume proportions) and diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide (Pearson's r, 0.52 and - 0.46, respectively). • Normal and fibrotic lung volume proportions (hazard ratios, 0.98 and 1.04; both p < 0.001) independently predicted overall survival when adjusted for clinical and physiologic variables.

Correlation of monocyte counts with clinical outcomes in idiopathic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia

Higher blood monocyte counts are related to worse survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. However, studies evaluating the association between blood monocyte counts and clinical outcomes of idiopathic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (iNSIP) are lacking. We evaluated the impact of monocyte counts on iNSIP prognosis. iNSIP patients (n = 126; median age, 60 years; female, n = 64 [50.8%]) diagnosed by surgical lung biopsy were enrolled and categorized into low (monocyte < 600/µL) and high (monocyte ≥ 600/µL) monocyte groups. The median follow-up duration was 53.0 months. After adjusting for age, sex, and smoking history, the annual decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) showed differences between the monocyte groups (Pinteraction = 0.006) (low vs. high; − 28.49 mL/year vs. − 65.76 mL/year). The high-monocyte group showed a worse survival rate (P = 0.01) compared to low monocyte group. The 5-year survival rates were 83% and 72% in the low- and high-monocyte groups, respectively. In the Cox-proportional hazard analysis, older age, male sex, low baseline FVC, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide were independent risk factors for mortality. However, monocyte count (Hazard ratio 1.61, P = 0.126) was not an independent prognostic factor. Although high monocyte count might be associated with faster lung function decline, it could not independently predict survival in iNSIP.

PCSK6 and Survival in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a devastating disease characterized by limited treatment options and high mortality. A better understanding of the molecular drivers of IPF progression is needed. Objectives: To identify and validate molecular determinants of IPF survival. Methods: A staged genome-wide association study was performed using paired genomic and survival data. Stage I cases were drawn from centers across the United States and Europe and stage II cases from Vanderbilt University. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify gene variants associated with differential transplantation-free survival (TFS). Stage I variants with nominal significance (P < 5 × 10-5) were advanced for stage II testing and meta-analyzed to identify those reaching genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). Downstream analyses were performed for genes and proteins associated with variants reaching genome-wide significance. Measurements and Main Results: After quality controls, 1,481 stage I cases and 397 stage II cases were included in the analysis. After filtering, 9,075,629 variants were tested in stage I, with 158 meeting advancement criteria. Four variants associated with TFS with consistent effect direction were identified in stage II, including one in an intron of PCSK6 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 6) reaching genome-wide significance (hazard ratio, 4.11 [95% confidence interval, 2.54-6.67]; P = 9.45 × 10-9). PCSK6 protein was highly expressed in IPF lung parenchyma. PCSK6 lung staining intensity, peripheral blood gene expression, and plasma concentration were associated with reduced TFS. Conclusions: We identified four novel variants associated with IPF survival, including one in PCSK6 that reached genome-wide significance. Downstream analyses suggested that PCSK6 protein plays a potentially important role in IPF progression.

MUC5B rs35705950 minor allele associates with older age and better survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

The minor T-allele of the MUC5B promoter polymorphism rs35705950 is strongly associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). However, conflicting results have been reported on the relationship between the MUC5B minor allele and survival and it is unknown whether a specific subgroup of IPF patients might benefit from MUC5B minor allele carriage. We investigated the association between MUC5B rs35705950, survival and patient characteristics in a real-world population of European IPF patients. In this retrospective study, 1751 patients with IPF from 8 European centres were included. MUC5B rs35705950 genotype, demographics, clinical characteristics at diagnosis and survival data were analysed. In a multi-variate Cox proportional hazard model the MUC5B minor allele was a significant independent predictor of survival when adjusted for age, sex, high resolution computed tomography pattern, smoking behaviour and pulmonary function tests in IPF. MUC5B minor allele carriers were significantly older at diagnosis (p=0.001). The percentage of MUC5B minor allele carriers increased significantly with age from 44% in patients aged <56 year, to 63% in patients aged >75. In IPF patients aged <56, the MUC5B minor allele was not associated with survival. In IPF patients aged ≥56, survival was significantly better for MUC5B minor allele carriers (45 months [CI: 42-49]) compared to non-carriers (29 months [CI: 26-33]; p=4 × 10-12 ). MUC5B minor allele carriage associates with a better median transplant-free survival of 16 months in the European IPF population aged over 56 years. MUC5B genotype status might aid disease prognostication in clinical management of IPF patients.

Prognosis and Survival in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis in the Era of Antifibrotic Therapy in Italy: Evidence from a Longitudinal Population Study Based on Healthcare Utilization Databases.

The aim was to evaluate the determinants of acute exacerbation (AE) and death in new cases of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) using administrative databases in the Marche Region. Adults at their first prescription of antifibrotics or hospitalization with a diagnosis of IPF occurring in 2014-2019 were considered as new cases. Multiple Cox regression was used to estimate the risk of AE and of all-cause mortality adjusted by demographic and clinical characteristics, stratifying patients according to antifibrotic treatment. Overall, 676 new cases of IPF were identified and 276 deaths and 248 AE events occurred. In never-treated patients, the risk of AE was higher in patients with poor health conditions at diagnosis; the risk of death was higher in males, in patients aged ≥75 and in those with poor health conditions at baseline. The increasing number of AEs increased the risk of death in treated and never-treated patients. Within the limits of an observational study based on secondary data, the combined use of healthcare administrative databases allows the accurate analysis of progression and survival of IPF from the beginning of the antifibrotic therapy era, suggesting that timely and early diagnosis is critical to prescribing the most suitable treatment to increase survival and maintain a healthy life expectancy.

Prognostic value of tripartite motif (TRIM) family gene signature from bronchoalveolar lavage cells in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BackgroundTripartite motif (TRIM) family genes get involved in the pathogenesis and development of various biological processes; however, the prognostic value of TRIM genes for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) needs to be explored.MethodsWe acquired gene expression based on bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cells and clinical data of three independent IPF cohorts in the GSE70866 dataset from the Gene expression omnibus (GEO) database. Differentially expressed TRIM genes (DETGs) between IPF patients and healthy donors were identified and used to establish a risk signature by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. The risk signature was further validated in other IPF cohorts, and compared with previously published signatures. Moreover, we performed functional enrichment analysis to explore the potential mechanisms. Eventually, the quantitative real time PCR was conducted to validate the expressions of the key genes in BAL from 12 IPF patients and 12 non-IPF controls from our institution.ResultsWe identified 4 DETGs including TRIM7, MEFV, TRIM45 and TRIM47 significantly associated with overall survival (OS) of IPF patients (P < 0.05). A multiple stepwise Cox regression analysis was performed to construct a 4-TRIM-gene prognostic signature. We categorized IPF patients into one low-risk group and the other high-risk group as per the average risk value of the TRIM prognostic signature in the training and validation cohorts. The IPF individuals in the low-risk group demonstrated an obvious OS advantage compared with the high-risk one (P < 0.01). The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic approach facilitated the verification of the predictive value of the TRIM prognostic signature in the training and validation cohorts, compared with other published signatures. A further investigation of immune cells and IPF survival displayed that higher proportion of resting memory CD4+ T cells and resting mast cells harbored OS advantage over lower proportion, however lower proportion of neutrophils, activated dendritic cells and activated NK cells indicated worse prognosis.ConclusionThe TRIM family genes are significant for the prognosis of IPF and our signature could serve as a robust model to predict OS.