Liver Transplantation Survival Research Articles

Biliary atresia with associated structural malformations in Canadian infants

Biliary atresia (BA) is associated with extrahepatic congenital malformations in a minority of affected infants. The term commonly applied to this subgroup is 'BASM' for biliary atresia splenic malformation syndrome, as spleen abnormalities are prominent. To examine clinical outcome in Canadian BA patients with extrahepatic congenital malformations in the Canada-wide BA database of patients born between 1985 and 2002, and additionally, to recharacterized the syndrome. Patients had ≥1 of the following: a/polysplenia, abnormal abdominal situs, intestinal malrotation, abdominal vascular anomaly or congenital heart disease. Among 328 BA patients, 44 (13%) had associated congenital abnormalities. Intra-abdominal anomalies included polysplenia (n=25), abnormal abdominal situs (n=9), intestinal malrotation (n=19), portal vein anomaly (n=12), hepatic artery anomaly (n=3) and inferior vena cava interruption (n=20). Twenty-six patients had cardiac malformations including pulmonary stenosis (n=11), ventricular septal defect (n=10), atrial septal defect (n=7), total anomalous pulmonary venous return (n=3), double outlet right ventricle (n=3), tetralogy of Fallot (n=2), atrioventricular canal (n=2), dextrocardia (n=2), bicuspid aortic valve (n=2), hypoplastic left heart (n=1) and partial anomalous pulmonary venous return (n=1). Age at Kasai operation, performance of liver transplant, overall survival, post-Kasai native liver survival and transplant survival were comparable to isolated BA. Presence of polysplenia or complex cardiac disease did not reduce post-Kasai native liver survival. Three patients had ≥2 typical abnormalities without polysplenia: thus, splenic malformations are not essential to this BA subgroup. Hierarchical cluster analysis demonstrated characteristic abnormalities grouped in a multiplicity of combinations, consistent with a spectrum of defective lateralization. We suggest that the acronym 'BASM' be redefined as 'biliary atresia structural malformation'.

Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging and transplant survival benefit for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicentre, cohort study

Allocation of deceased-donor livers to patients with chronic liver failure is improved by prioritising patients by 5-year liver transplantation survival benefit. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging has been proposed as the standard means to assess for prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. We aimed to create a prediction model linking the BCLC stage of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma to their 5-year liver transplant benefit. A large cohort of consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (n=1328) from the ITA.LI.CA database (n=2951) were judged as potentially eligible for liver transplantation according to the following criteria: absence of macroscopic vascular invasion or metastases, age 70 years or younger, and absence of relevant extra-hepatic comorbidities. To assess the correlation between BCLC staging and non-liver transplantation survival, we did Cox univariate and multivariate analyses including the following covariates: BCLC stage, year of diagnosis, age, sex, cause of cirrhosis, model for end-stage liver disease score, α-fetoprotein concentrations, and treatment. Liver-transplantation survival benefit for patients was calculated, using Monte Carlo simulation analysis, as the patient's 5-year life expectancy with liver transplantation (estimated by the Metroticket model) minus the 5-year life expectancy without liver transplantation according to BCLC stage. 83 (6%) of 1328 patients had BCLC 0 stage disease, 614 (46%) had BCLC A, 500 (38%) had BCLC B-C, and 131 (10%) had BCLC D. In the Cox non-liver transplantation survival multivariate model, hazard ratios associated with increasing BCLC stages were 1.530 (95% CI 1.107-2.116) for BCLC A versus BCLC 0, 1.572 (1.350-1.830) for BCLC B-C versus BCLC A, and 1.470 (1.164-1.856) for BCLC D versus BCLC B-C. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation analysis confirmed the significant effect of BCLC classification on transplant benefit; in the adjusted model, a median 5-year transplant benefit of 11.19 months (IQR 10.73-11.67) for BCLC 0, 13.49 months (11.51-15.57) for BCLC A, 17.36 months (15.06-19.28) for BCLC B-C, and 28.46 months (26.38-30.34) for BCLC D. Liver transplantation could result in survival benefit for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and advanced liver cirrhosis (BCLC stage D) and in those with intermediate tumours (BCLC stages B-C), regardless of the nodule number-size criteria (ie, Milan criteria), provided that macroscopic vascular invasion and extra-hepatic disease are absent. None.

The Pattern of Late Mortality in Liver Transplant Recipients in the United Kingdom

Late survival is not improving after liver transplantation. In this study, possible reasons for this were investigated. Mortality rates and causes of death were ascertained in 4483 adult primary liver allograft recipients surviving 1 year or more from engraftment, identified through the UK Transplant Database and transplanted between 1994 and 2007. Associations with death, cause of death, and retransplantation were assessed. Mortality in those surviving beyond 1 year in UK liver transplant recipients was more than twice that expected in the general population and had not improved during the study period, independent of cause of liver disease, recipient age, recipient gender, and donor age. The major causes of death were malignancy (30.6%), multisystem failure (10.0%), infection (9.8%), cardiac disease (8.7%), and graft failure (9.8%). Associations with death after 1 year were pretransplant etiologies alcohol-related liver disease (hazard ratio [HR]=2.10), autoimmune hepatitis or cryptogenic (HR=1.68), hepatitis C virus (HR=2.51), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR=4.19). Associations with retransplantation were recipient age (HR=0.95 per year), donor age (HR=1.02 per year), and hepatitis C virus (HR=2.04). Hepatocellular carcinoma and recipient age were associated with cancer-related death (odds ratio=1.87 and 1.02 per year). Recipient age was associated with cardiac death (odds ratio=1.06 per year). Strategies to reduce late mortality after liver transplantation are required. These may include prevention of disease recurrence, improved recipient selection, and addressing risk factors for death in late survivors of liver transplantation.

Limitations on Surrogate Decision-Making for Emergent Liver Transplantation

Surrogate consent is an accepted form of promoting patient autonomy when patients cannot consent, but it can lead to surrogate duress and may be unreliable. Since consent for liver transplantation in patients with fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) is typically performed by surrogates and these patients typically regain decisional capacity, we chose this population to query patients' opinion on the surrogate consent process. We developed a questionnaire that queried transplanted patients' experience and opinion on surrogate consent, suitability of surrogates, and return of decisional capacity. This survey was then sent to consecutive survivors of liver transplantation for FHF at our institution. Eleven of 14 patients eligible to participate completed the questionnaire. The mean follow-up for all survivors was 41 mo, with a range of survival since transplant of 5 mo to 10 y. Although 10/11 respondents agreed with their surrogates to consent to liver transplantation, all 11 patients thought that surrogates should not be able to decline liver transplantation for this condition. In distinction, 3/11 patients believed patients could decline liver transplantation. This is the first study to demonstrate that liver transplant patients do not think surrogate decision-makers should be permitted to contravene physician recommendations regarding transplant. In clinical settings when patients cannot speak for themselves, it may be appropriate for surrogates and clinicians to act together according to the patients' best interest rather than attempt to determine what the patient would want. This approach might reduce surrogate distress, better represent patient preferences, and improve the decision-making process for affected patients.

Perfusion Fluid Contamination in Relation to Recipient Survival and Acute Cellular Rejection in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation: Retrospective Analysis

Introduction A perfusion fluid used in the preservation of a grafted liver represents a medium suitable for microorganism growth. This study investigated the prevalence of perfusion fluid contamination, acute cellular rejection (ACR) episodes, and patient survival rate. Method This is a retrospective study, based on an electronic database allocating cases of orthotopic liver transplantation. The exclusion criteria were as follows: having been submitted to multiple organ transplantation, liver retransplantation only, and those whose samples had not been collected or sent on the back table procedure or were unobtainable (usually the samples were sent when there was donor infection suspicion/positivity). Our posttransplantation infection prophylactic protocol consisted of ampicillin/sulbactam for 72 hours. The variables in the study were as follows: fluid contamination, presence of acute cellular rejection (ACR, Banff classification), and recipient survival at the first year. Statistical analysis was performed using descriptive statistics and chi-square with Fisher exact test considering significant P < .05. Results We observed perfusion fluid contamination in 15/121 (12.39%). The agents were as follows: Klebsiella pneumoniae in 6 (4.96%), Staphylococcus epidermidis in 5 (4.13%), and Acinetobacter baumanii in 3 (2.48%) and negative cultures in 106 (87.60%). Only 1 patient had matching for donor infection and positivity hemoculture after the transplantation ( K pneumoniae) and he was the only patient associated with fluid infection and death. The recipients who had their fluid preservation with positive cultures had more ACR and the survival rate was similar among those with or without infection. Conclusion Optimization of microbiological procedures can be performed including fungal and bacterial cultures.

CD28 expression by peripheral blood lymphocytes as a potential predictor of the development of de novo malignancies in long-term survivors after liver transplantation

At present, no method is available for accurately monitoring the degree of immunosuppression induced by antirejection therapies. The aim of this study was to determine whether CD28 and CD38 expression by peripheral blood mononuclear cells could be useful in predicting the development of de novo malignancies after liver transplantation. Flow cytometry analysis was used to measure the expression of CD28 and CD38 by peripheral blood lymphocytes in 134 stable, long-term survivors of liver transplantation. Patients who developed a de novo malignancy after undergoing a medical checkup were entered into a cancer group. Twenty-two patients (16.4%) developed at least 1 de novo malignancy over a mean interval of 22 ± 14 months (1.2-49.4 months) after the checkup. The mean frequency of CD28(+)CD8(+) cells was significantly lower in the cancer group versus the noncancer group (39% ± 22 versus 51% ± 21, P = 0.008), but CD38 expression was similar in the 2 groups. Multivariate analysis indicated that an age greater than 50 years (odds ratio = 5.81) and a low frequency of CD28(+)CD8(+) cells at the time of the checkup (odds ratio =3.16) were the only significant predictors of the development of de novo malignancies (P = 0.027). The actuarial proportion of patients with de novo malignancies was significantly lower when the frequency of CD28(+)CD8(+) cells was greater than or equal to 40% instead of less than 40% (P = 0.01). Flow cytometry measurements of CD28 expression by peripheral blood lymphocytes may facilitate the identification of patients at a high risk of developing de novo malignancies. Further prospective studies are necessary to determine whether such measurements could have a place in routine clinical practice to enable the intensity of immunosuppression to be minimized in patients who have an increased risk of developing cancer.

Emodin Prolongs Recipient Survival Time After Orthotopic Liver Transplantation in Rats by Polarizing the Th1/Th2 Paradigm to Th2

Advances in immunosuppressive drugs have improved the short-term survival of liver transplantation. However, drug toxicities have been a serious problem in patients after long-term administration. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a novel immunosuppressant with low-toxicity. We investigated the immunosuppressive effects of Emodin on acute graft rejection following liver transplantation in rats. The recipient rats of orthotopic liver transplantation were divided into groups as follows: isograft+NS group, allograft+NS group, and allograft+emodin group. The survival time of the recipients in each group was recorded. Histopathological changes in the liver, as well as serum concentrations of IL-2, TNF-α, and IL-10 and their expressions in liver tissue were determined. Our results showed that Emodin treatment prolonged liver allograft survival time and inhibited histopathologic changes of acute graft rejection. The rejection activity index in groups isograft+NS, allograft+NS, and allograft+emodin were 1.52 ± 0.37, 6.95 ± 0.75, and 4.23 ± 0.51, respectively (P < 0.01, isograft+NS group vs. allograft+emodin group and allograft+NS group vs. allograft+emodin group). The serum levels of IL-2 and TNF-α were down-regulated but that of IL-10 was up-regulated by Emodin. Serum levels of IL-2 and TNF-α were higher in allograft+NS group than the allograft+emodin group, but that of IL-10 showed opposite effects (P < 0.05 or 0.01). Changes in the expression of these cytokines in transplanted liver tissue were consistent with changes in serum concentrations. These results demonstrate that Emodin has therapeutic potentials for alleviating acute rejection following liver transplantation in rats and prolonging liver allograft survival. The mechanisms underlying this effect may be associated with polarizing the Th1/Th2 paradigm to Th2.

Fulminant septic shock due to Clostridium perfringens skin and soft tissue infection eight years after liver transplantation

Bacterial and fungal infections are the main cause of death within the first year after liver transplantation. Clostridium perfringens is the most common germ causing gas gangrene. Infections with Clostridium perfringens may present in a variety of clinical manifestations, reaching from asymptomatic infections to massive intravascular haemolysis and multiple organ failure due to septic shock. We here report on a 55-year old male liver transplant patient suffering from skin and soft tissue infection eight years after liver transplantation. The patient was referred to our department from a community hospital. Upon admission in our department the infection had been ongoing for at least three days. Laboratory analyses demonstrated severe infection and impaired liver function. Tomogram and computed tomography scan of his right limb showed typical images of gas gangrene. The patient was immediately scheduled for surgical debridement. During surgery the patient developed septic shock with severe coagulopathy and died six hours after the operation due to uncontrolled septic shock. The histopathological and microbiologic work-up of the resected skin and soft tissue showed necrotic areas infiltrated with Clostridium perfringens. Even long-term survivors of liver transplantation are at major risk for life-threatening infections. The reported clinical scenario of Clostridium perfringens infection indicates the narrow therapeutic window. Clostridium perfringens should always be considered as a cause of infection in liver transplant patients.

The Use of Hepatitis B Core Antibody-Positive Donor Livers Does Not Appear to Have a Deleterious Effect on Graft Survival in Liver Transplantation for Hepatitis C

Introduction The use of hepatitis B core antibody-positive donor livers (HBcAb +) has steadily increased. According to a recent multivariate analysis of United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data, there was no significant increase in the risk of using these donors. The increased risk among the hepatitis C virus (HCV)-positive subgroup noted in a univariate model disappeared upon multivariate analysis. However, deeper scrutiny may show that HCV-positive recipients may be at increased risk with HBcAb + donor livers, as they require simultaneous treatment with two antiviral regimens there may be deleterious interactions between the two viruses. Thus, the issue of HBcAb + donors for HCV-positive recipients merits more detailed analysis. Methods Using UNOS registry data of all liver transplantations performed during the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease era from February 2002 through November 2007, we analyzed graft survival using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Results Of the 12,543 HCV-positive recipients, 2,543 received HBcAb − livers and 853 received HBcAb + livers. While Kaplan- Meier analysis showed significantly lower graft survival among HCV-negative recipients of HBcAb + livers ( P = .0001), there was no significant effect on graft survival among the HCV-positive population ( P = .2). To detect an early effect in HCV-positive recipients, we examined 1-year graft survival, observing no significant difference ( P = .3). To exclude a possible late effect, we examined graft survival in the HCV-positive population conditional upon surviving at least 1 year after transplantation; no significant difference was observed ( P = .6). The elimination of potentially confounding codiagnoses, such as hepatitis B virus, alcoholism, acute graft failure, and hepatocellular cancer did not alter the findings. On univariate analysis, the lack of a significant effect persisted among the HCV population. However, the significant effect observed in the univariate model for the HCV-negative population became insignificant when combined with other risk factors in the multivariate model. Conclusion The use of HBcAb + livers in recipients with HCV did not appear to have a significant impact on grat survival.

Effects of Orthotopic Liver Transplantation in Inbred Rats on Bone Biomechanical Properties

Aim To determine the effects of orthotopic liver transplantation in inbred rats on the mechanical properties of bones at different anatomic sites. Methods The 24 rats that survived liver transplantation were paired with sham-operated rats of similar body weight. Six months after surgery, the lumbar vertebra, the proximal femur, and the middle femoral shaft were measured for their biomechanical properties and bone mineral density. Results The ultimate force, the ultimate stress, the Young modulus and the bone mineral density of both the proximal femur and the middle femur shaft of the rats were significantly reduced in the liver transplant group. However, no significant change was observed in the various parameters that indicate the biomechanical properties and the bone mineral density of the lumbar vertebra. Conclusions Orthotopic liver transplantation impairs the biomechanical properties of the proximal femur and the middle femoral shaft. Orthotopic liver transplantation itself is one of the risk factors for posttransplant fracture.

Comparison of Cystatin C and Creatinine-based Glomerular Filtration Rate Formulas with 51Cr-EDTA Clearance in Patients with Cirrhosis

Renal function is an important predictor of survival in cirrhosis and liver transplantation. GFR estimates using serum cystatin C (CysC) are proposed as better predictors of renal function than ones on the basis of serum creatinine (Cr). Our aims were: (1) evaluate correlations between serum CysC and different methods of creatinine measurements; (2) compare CysC and Cr GFR formulas with (51)Cr-EDTA; and (3) evaluate liver-related parameters potentially influencing GFR. 254 blood samples in 65 patients with cirrhosis correlating CysC with four Cr methods were used; another 74 patients comparing (51)Cr-EDTA GFR to Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Larsson and Hoek formulas for CysC were also included. Agreement was assessed using Bland-Altman plots and concordance correlation coefficients. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used for GFR predictors. Serum CysC correlated modestly with O'Leary modified Jaffe, compensated kinetic Jaffe, enzymatic creatinine, and standard kinetic Jaffe 0.72/0.71/0.72/0.72 (all P < 0.001). Bland-Altman agreement with (51)Cr-EDTA GFR was poor; the best agreement was Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (concordance 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.71); the worst agreement was the Hoek formula (concordance 0.46; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.61). A new GFR formula including the Child-Pugh score improved the accuracy of Cr GFR formulas compared with (51)Cr-EDTA GFR. Estimated GFR in cirrhosis is not better with CysC formulas compared with creatinine ones: specific formulas may be necessary.

Multicentric evaluation of model for end-stage liver disease-based allocation and survival after liver transplantation in Germany - limitations of the ‘sickest first’-concept

Since the introduction of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in 2006, post-orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) survival in Germany has declined. The aim of this study was to evaluate risk factors and prognostic scores for outcome. All adult OLT recipients in seven German transplant centers after MELD implementation (December 2006-December 2007) were included. Recipient data were analyzed for their influence on 1-year outcome. A total of 462 patients (mean calculated MELD = 20.5, follow-up: 1 year) were transplanted for alcoholic cirrhosis (33.1%), hepatocellular carcinoma (26.6%), Hepatitis-C (17.1%), Hepatitis-B (9.5%), primary sclerosing cholangitis (5.6%) and late graft-failure after first OLT before December 2006 (8.7%). 1-year patient survival was 75.8% (graft survival 71.2%) correlating with MELD parameters and serum choline esterase. MELD score >30 [odds ratio (OR) = 4.17, confidence interval: 2.57-6.78, 12-month survival = 52.6%, c-statistic = 0.669], hyponatremia (OR = 2.07), and pre-OLT hemodialysis (OR = 2.35) were the main death risk factors. In alcoholic cirrhosis (n = 153, mean MELD = 21.1) and hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 123, mean MELD = 13.5), serum bilirubin and the survival after liver transplantation score were independent outcome parameters, respectively. MELD >30 currently represents a major risk factor for outcome. Risk factors differ in individual patient subgroups. In the current German practice of organ allocation to sicker patients, outcome prediction should be considered to prevent results below acceptable standards.

Similar liver transplantation survival with selected cardiac death donors and brain death donors (Br J Surg 2010; 97: 744–753)

Similar liver transplantation survival with selected cardiac death donors and brain death donors (Br J Surg 2010; 97: 744–753)

Authors' reply: Similar liver transplantation survival with selected cardiac death donors and brain death donors (Br J Surg 2010; 97; 744–753)

Authors' reply: Similar liver transplantation survival with selected cardiac death donors and brain death donors (<i>Br J Surg</i> 2010; 97; 744–753)

The Psychiatric Diagnosis of Alcohol Abuse and the Medical Diagnosis of Alcoholic Related Liver Disease: Effects on Liver Transplant Survival

The present study investigated whether differing diagnostic criteria for alcoholism used by mental health professionals versus hepatologists lead to different outcomes in predicting liver transplant survival as determined by the medical record and without a priori judgments. This was in contrast to past studies, particularly in the liver transplant literature, demonstrating comparable survival rates between alcoholics and non-alcoholics that have typically employed a diagnosis of Alcoholic Liver Disease (ALD), which does not capture the salient maladaptive behavioral and interpersonal features associated with DSM-IV-TR diagnoses of Alcohol Abuse (AA) and Alcohol Dependence (AD). A series of survival analyses were conducted using data culled from the psychological and medical records of 358 first-time liver transplant recipients at Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri. The primary outcome investigated was liver graft survival following transplant surgery. Follow-up times varied from 0 days to 13 years, depending on the time of transplant and length of graft survival, with a median follow-up time of 6.2 years. Diagnoses of AA and AD predicted significantly poorer survival rates, while diagnoses of ALD did not. DSM-IV-TR alcoholism criteria appear to have greater utility for predicting survival differences beyond pathophysiologically defined alcoholic liver failure.

Portal vein thrombosis and liver transplant survival benefit

Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) complicates the liver transplant operation and potentially affects waiting list survival. The implications on calculations of survival benefit, which balance both waiting list and posttransplant survival effects of PVT, have not been determined. The objective of this study is to describe the effect of PVT on the survival benefit of liver transplantation. Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data on adult liver transplant candidates wait-listed between September 2001 and December 2007, Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to estimate the covariate-adjusted effect of PVT on transplant rate, waiting list survival, and posttransplant survival. We then used sequential stratification to estimate liver transplant survival benefit by cross-classifications defined by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and PVT status. The prevalence of reported PVT among 22,291 liver transplant recipients was 4.02% (N = 897). PVT was not a predictor of waiting list mortality (hazard ratio = 0.90, P = 0.23) but was a predictor of posttransplant mortality (hazard ratio = 1.32, P = 0.02). Overall, transplant benefit was not significantly different for patients with PVT versus without PVT (P = 0.21), but there was a shift in the benefit curve. Specifically, the threshold for transplant benefit among patients without PVT was MELD score >11 compared to MELD score >13 for patients with PVT. PVT is associated with significantly higher posttransplant mortality but does not affect waiting list mortality. Among patients with low MELD score, PVT is associated with less transplant survival benefit. Clinicians should carefully consider the risks of liver transplantation in clinically stable patients who have PVT.

Similar liver transplantation survival with selected cardiac death donors and brain death donors (Br J Surg 2010; 97: 744–753)

Similar liver transplantation survival with selected cardiac death donors and brain death donors (<i>Br J Surg</i> 2010; 97: 744–753)

Similar liver transplantation survival with selected cardiac death donors and brain death donors

The outcome of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) with controlled graft donation after cardiac death (DCD) is usually inferior to that with graft donation after brain death (DBD). This study compared outcomes from OLT with DBD versus controlled DCD donors with predefined restrictive acceptance criteria. All adult recipients in the Netherlands in 2001-2006 with full-size OLT from DCD (n = 55) and DBD (n = 471) donors were included. Kaplan-Meier, log rank and Cox regression analyses were used. One- and 3-year patient survival rates were similar for DCD (85 and 80 per cent) and DBD (86.3 and 80.8 per cent) transplants (P = 0.763), as were graft survival rates (74 and 68 per cent versus 80.4 and 74.5 per cent; P = 0.212). The 3-year cumulative percentage of surviving grafts developing non-anastomotic biliary strictures was 31 per cent after DCD and 9.7 per cent after DBD transplantation (P < 0.001). The retransplantation rate was similar overall (P = 0.081), but that for biliary stricture was higher in the DCD group (P < 0.001). Risk factors for 1-year graft loss after DBD OLT were transplant centre, recipient warm ischaemia time and donor with severe head trauma. After DCD OLT they were transplant centre, donor warm ischaemia time and cold ischaemia time. DCD graft was a risk factor for non-anastomotic biliary stricture. OLT using controlled DCD grafts and restrictive criteria can result in patient and graft survival rates similar to those of DBD OLT, despite a higher risk of biliary stricture.

Survival Tree and Meld to Predict Long Term Survival in Liver Transplantation Waiting List

MELD score is a formula based on laboratory variables used as a predictor of short-term mortality index in cirrhotic patients. It is applied to allocate patients in liver transplantation waiting list in many countries. However, MELD score cutoff point accuracy to predict long term mortality has not been statistically evaluated. The aim of this study was to analyze the MELD score and other variables related to long-term mortality using a new model: the Survival Tree analysis. The variables considered in this study were obtained at the time of liver transplantation list enrollment. The graphical representation of the survival trees showed that MELD 16 was the most statistically significant mortality cutoff point. The results were compatible with the MELD cutoff point reported in the clinical literature. This methodology can be extended to identify significant cutoff points related to other diseases whose severity is not necessarily expressed by MELD.

Risk of Development of the Metabolic Syndrome After Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

Longer survival for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) patients over the last decade has focused emphasis on the metabolic complications that contribute to patient morbidity and mortality. The aim of our study was to analyze the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MS) and other risk factors after OLT among our patients at 1 year follow-up. From 2001 to 2008, we performed OLT in 210 patients with 62 exclusions leaving 148 patients for the study. We recorded age, gender, liver disease, smoking status, pre- and post-OLT body mass index, pre- and post-OLT arterial blood pressure, pre- and post-OLT fasting blood glucose, pre- and post-OLT high-density lipoproteins and triglycerides, family history of diabetes, hepatitis B and C virus status, immunosuppressive therapy, and corticosteroid bolus for rejection episodes. The MS was defined according to modified ATP III criteria. At month 12 after OLT, 29/148 patients (19.6%) developed the MS. The associated factors were obesity and hyperlipidemia pre-OLT, familial and personal history of diabetes as well as alcoholic cirrhosis. By multivariate analysis, pre-OLT body mass index (odds ratio, 3.7 [1.3-10.5]) and pre-OLT diabetes (odds ratio, 2.9 [1.1-7.9]) were independent risk factors.