Farm Survey Research Articles

Farm characteristics shape farmers’ cover crop choices in Finland

ABSTRACT Cover crops (CCs) are a diverse group of species that are sown simultaneously or after the cash crop either as monocrops or mixtures. A farmer survey with 1130 respondents was carried out with the aim to gain knowledge on CC species used by Finnish farmers, to understand how experienced farmers were with them, how experiences varied depending on farm and farmer characteristics, and to identify target groups for dissemination and policy measures. The studied groups were conventional and organic farms that had selected CCs as a registered measure in 2020 to receive agricultural payments. Our results show that farmers were experienced with a high number of CCs despite the high-latitude conditions. Only 11% of respondents had plenty of experience with CCs as mixtures. Farmers tended to favour CCs that were familiar to them as cash crops. Organic producers were usually more experienced than conventional farmers. Education increased curiosity towards CCs. Farmers who used more diverse cash crops tended to use more diverse CCs. In conclusion, especially farmers who have cereal-based systems and rotations should be a core group for knowledge sharing to support transition towards increased use of CCs and higher diversity of CC species in the future.

Making Climate-Smart Cocoa Inclusive: Towards a Framework for Gender Transformation

ABSTRACT Climate-Smart Cocoa (CSC), a strategic offshoot of the wider Climate-Smart Agriculture, is gaining ground in Ghana, a cocoa export-dependent country. CSC is imperative, given the rapidly declining forests, prolonged periods of drought, pest and disease infestations, and fluctuating cocoa yields attributed to climate variability and change. Although many interventions are instituted to restore sustainable cocoa production, they are largely technicist because they do not pay attention to gender relations of production in the communities. Given the context of the embeddedness of gender inequality in access to resources, we used some CSC interventions in Ghana to reflect on the lingering questions of CSC production practices. We relied on CSC project documents, extant literature, farmer surveys and qualitative data to highlight the need for climate-smart agricultural approaches to be sensitive to structural and systemic issues that exclude female farmers. We argue that transforming norms that perpetuate unequal access to land, labour, input and extension services between men and women should be central to approaches that aim to promote sustainable and ecologically sound agricultural practices in cocoa production systems.

Survey of farmers’ knowledge of yam pests and diseases and management practices in southern Ethiopia

Abstract Yam is a widely consumed food in the tropics and subtropics. Determination of pests (pathogens and insects) and diseases (developed pest invasions and symptoms) and the appropriate management practices are critical in existing crop production systems. This study aimed to document farmers’ knowledge about yam pests and diseases and their management practices in southern Ethiopia. Data were collected from 342 systematically selected farmers and 96 yam fields in 5 major yam-growing zones (Dawuro, Gofa, Gamo, Kembata-Tembaro, and Wolaita) in southern Ethiopia using a semi-structured interview guide. The results showed that 54.1% of the farmers saved their planting materials for the next growing season, while 39.2% of the farmers purchased the planting materials from the local market every year. Most farmers (63.5%) reported that the cultivation of yam has been declining annually due to pests and diseases. White yam (Dioscorea rotundata) (Poir, Dioscoreales, Dioscoreaceae) and water yam (Dioscorea alata) are severely damaged by pests and diseases, as perceived by 33.9% and 24.9% of farmers, respectively. Farmers use healthy-looking pest- and disease-free tubers (39.5%), remove infected plants (24.0%), practice crop rotations (17.3%), and use animal manure (7.0%) to manage yam pests and diseases. Farmers’ knowledge can be a starting point for seeking solutions to yam pests and disease risks. This study could play an important role in improving yam cultivation by identifying strategies to improve the recent decline in yam production to meet future food needs for a rapidly growing population.

IPM messaging: who, what, how?—Insights from a survey of farmers and agronomists in Scotland

Abstract Enhanced awareness and knowledge among arable (field crop) farmers and agronomists are pivotal for making informed integrated pest management (IPM) decisions. In this study, we had 3 primary objectives: (i) identifying the key factors influencing the adoption of IPM, (ii) gathering insights into the currently perceived pest threats, and (iii) identifying any necessary intervention tools or methods for modifying the flow of information. In 2021, a telephone survey involving 267 arable and arable/livestock farmers and 26 agronomists was conducted in Scotland. The survey was designed to gather information on the perceived invertebrate pest, disease, and weed threats, the extent of IPM implementation, and the sources of information consulted. Several factors influenced the uptake of IPM, including farm type, location, agronomist engagement, farmer’s age, education, and membership in schemes promoting IPM. Notably, there were disparities in perceptions of the most significant pest threats between arable farmers and agronomists. This points to a division of decision-making responsibilities and, consequently, varying information needs. Agronomists typically require technical information related to pesticide effectiveness and disease management, whereas arable farmers seek guidance on cultural approaches for managing weeds and invertebrate pests. Furthermore, preferences for information sources also differed, with agronomists showing a preference for social media as a source of IPM information, while farmers favored the farming press. Ultimately, a deeper understanding of IPM practices equips farmers to actively participate in IPM discussions with their agronomists. This enables the collaborative development of an effective IPM strategy and, in turn, increases the adoption of IPM practices.

Оценка размерности личных подсобных хозяйств на основе группировокпо земельной площади

The article analyzes the approaches of state statistical bodies to the construction of analytical groupings of private subsidiary farms by the total land area and the total sown area. Analytical groupings published according to the national agricultural censuses, as a rule, represent distribution series, where the characteristics of the selected groups are limited only by the number of farms, the volume of the phenomenon and its ratio to the total. In addition, the program for publishing the results of the agricultural microcensus does not provide for a regional section. In order to improve the quality of the summary, analysis and presentation of the data on private subsidiary farms, it is proposed to revise the intervals for a number of grouping indicators and to significantly expand the set of features characterizing analytical groups. On the basis of depersonalized primary data of the agricultural microcensus, the article shows the possibilities of analyzing the size, specialization and intensification of agricultural production of private subsidiary farms while conducting a complete summary of the signs of the observation program. The trends of decrease in the total number of private subsidiary farms and their land and sown area revealed according to the census data indicate a reduction in the size of agricultural production of the category of households of the population, which makes it possible to raise the question of the expediency of their continuous survey and the introduction of censorship, as it is done in some foreign countries. On the basis of the data of the sample survey of private farms and the microcensus of 2021, an estimation of the value of the gross agricultural production by groups of farms according to the size of the land area was given, and it was proposed to introduce a requirement of 1000 m2 of land area for the inclusion of private subsidiary farms in the list of respondents of agricultural censuses.

Soybean aphid management and perception of insecticide resistance by farmers

Abstract In the Midwest United States, soybean aphids can cause significant economic losses in soybean production. The repeated use of insecticides within the same family has led to the development of insecticide resistance in soybean aphids. Implementing integrated pest management (IPM) and insecticide-resistance management (IRM) strategies can help farmers reduce the frequency of insecticide applications and delay the evolution of soybean aphid resistance while reducing production costs, maintaining yields, and protecting the environment. Farmers play a crucial role in implementing such practices; therefore, to understand farmers’ practices for management of soybean aphids and their perceptions of insecticide resistance, a survey of soybean farmers in Minnesota and North Dakota was conducted in 2021. Overall, the reported decision-making sources were similar for both farmers who changed and those who did not change their aphid management due to insecticide resistance; these were crop consultants and agricultural retailers. The threshold used by farmers in both groups to determine whether to use a foliar insecticide was lower than the research-based threshold for soybean aphids, and farmers were aware that this could contribute to insecticide resistance. In addition, farmers who changed soybean aphid management were more concerned than farmers who did not change about insecticide resistance and were implementing good practices such as scouting, using labeled application rates, and rotating insecticide modes of action. The results of this research can inform the refinement of IPM and IRM programs as well as extension education efforts.

Profit efficiency among kenyan maize farmers

The profit efficiency (PE) of maize farming and its determinants are estimated using the true random effect (TRE) approach. A survey of maize farmers was conducted in Uasin Gishu, one of Kenya's top maize-producing regions. Clearly, maize farmers can increase their profits based on the mean PE of 0.62. In terms of profitability, maize farming is elastically affected by the price of maize, but inelastically affected by the price of inputs. In households where the head of household is male, household sizes are larger, and farm sizes are larger, inefficiencies of profit are significantly reduced. Despite this, factors such as the distance between home and the maize farm, soil characteristics, maize diseases, along with natural disasters significantly increase profit inefficiency. According to the findings of the study, maize prices are more effective targets for developing supportive policies than input prices. To significantly increase PE, farmers would benefit from programs designed to improve their production and management skills to preserve soil health and minimize damage caused by disease and natural disasters. Furthermore, increase in PE would be achieved by improving farm size through land-use policies.

Understanding the Potential to Increase Adoption of Orphan Crops: The Case of Lathyrus spp. Cultivation in Greece

Little progress has been made in translating the increased awareness of neglected and underutilized crops into a viable tool for advancing not just sustainable development in rural areas but also sustainable agricultural and secured food systems. This is caused, in part, by a lack of understanding the importance of several underutilized crops that are currently in cultivation. Among underutilized crops, grasspea (Lathyrus sativus) is an orphan legume crop with great agronomic potential due to its suitability for a variety of sustainable food and feed production systems throughout the world’s semi-arid and arid regions and its high protein content. The current study presents a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis to unravel the following: What are the strengths and weaknesses of Lathyrus spp. cultivation, what factors are opportunities or initiatives that encourage the adoption of the crop by growers, and what factors are disincentives or threats that prevent its adoption? What strategies could help expand cultivation? We use data from a questionnaire survey of farmers in Central Greece (Thessaly) to examine their attitudes and perceptions with regards to the above questions. The outcome of this study strongly suggests that farmers are willing to adopt the new Lathyrus spp. cultivation if they are assisted via contractualization, training, and new financial tools.

Examination of Farmers’ Perception on Adaptation Measures Toward Modifying Climatic Challenges for Agricultural Sustainability in Northern Nigeria

This study examines farmers’ perceptions on adaptation measures toward modifying climatic challenges for agricultural sustainability in northern Nigeria. The data were mainly derived from several sources, including maps of Nigeria and the selected States, population figures from records of the National Population Commission and from internet and library sources, as well as from questionnaire survey of farmers’ opinions. Stepwise sampling technique was employed in the selection of respondents for the questionnaire survey. Frequency tabulations and ANOVA were used to collate and analyze the variations within and between states in the farmers’ measures of modifying environmental challenges in northern Nigeria. It was concluded that 86% of the farmers were positive about climatic adaptation measures in Northern Nigeria, to the extent that there is no variation within and between states (F-value = 0.016), across the region. It was recommended that efforts at improving local or indigenous practices of water harvesting and soil water conservation should be promoted.

The Impact of Cooperative membership on Adoption of Modern Technology by Bee farmers in Kenya.

The main aim of this research is to examine the impact of cooperative membership on adoption of modern technology by bee farmers in Kenya. This study’s data comes from a bee farmers survey in Baringo County, Kenya using a sampling size of 201 households. Probit, logit and Instrumental variable models were incorporated to test for the estimation of relationships and the information generated imported into the SPSS computer application (SPSS 2015) and STATA MP 17 for statistical analysis. The results show that education has a negative significant predictor of cooperative membership at a 5% significance level. Attaining secondary levels did not contribute to farmers’ decision to join cooperative membership. Older farmers were more likely to join cooperatives, unlike the young farmers. Using neighbors in cooperatives as an instrumental variable, the findings indicate that farmers with neighbors who were already in cooperative membership were more likely to join cooperatives. In addition, the majority of adopters of modern bee farming technologies had access to both credit and markets and reported to have experienced an increase in income from bee farming. The adoption of modern beekeeping technologies, such as protective gears, and honey extractors, enabled the farmers to produce more and better-quality honey, which fetched higher prices in the market. Cooperative membership increased the probability of adopting modern beekeeping technology. As such, the study recommends that cooperatives should provide more incentives and support to their members, such as training, subsidies, quality assurance, and market linkages to promote the adoption of modern bee farming technologies.

Gendered barriers and opportunities for scaling integrated pest management practices along the mango value chain in Kenya

Abstract Mango (Mangifera indica L.) is an important source of food and income in Kenya, but production is hampered by the proliferation of invasive fruit flies (Bactrocera dorsalis). The International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe) and its partners have over the past 2 decades developed and disseminated an integrated pest management (IPM) package of interventions that effectively reduce fruit fly populations, but adoption is relatively low. In response to this low adoption, the authors conducted desk- and field-based qualitative and quantitative studies to better understand the gendered barriers and opportunities for scaling IPM practices along the mango value chain in Kenya. Twenty-four gender-disaggregated focus groups, 118 farmer surveys, and 63 key informant interviews with value chain actors were conducted. The results show that lack of access to IPM inputs, market constraints, and access to training are among the key barriers to and motivations for adopting IPM strategies in Embu County, Kenya.

The Association Between Short Sleep Duration and Depressive Symptoms Among Elderly Farmers

Objectives: This study was conducted to identify the association between short sleep duration and depressive symptoms among elderly farmers.Methods: This study analyzed the Safety for Agricultural Injuries of Farmers cohort data collected from September 2015 to June 2018. The data were based on an agricultural survey of the health and behaviors of adult farmers on Jeju Island in South Korea. Depressive symptoms were defined as a score of 8 or higher according to the short form of the geriatric depression scale. Short sleep duration was defined as less than 6 hours of average daily sleep duration.Results: The analysis included 507 participants, aged over 60 years. Of these, 87 (17.2%) demonstrated depressive symptoms. The prevalence of depressive symptoms differed significantly between farmers with <6 h (25.8%) and those with ≥6 h (13.5%) of sleep (<i>p</i>=0.001). Multivariable analyses confirmed that short sleep duration was significantly associated with depressive symptoms (odds ratio=1.876, 95% confidence interval=1.129–3.118).Conclusions: Our findings suggest that short sleep duration increases the risk of depressive symptoms among elderly farmers. Adequate daily sleep duration may prevent depressive symptoms in the population.

Analysis of Determining The Cost of Replanting for Smallholder Oil Palm Plantations Using Annuities Model with Python

Palm oil replanting is a necessary activity to enhance the productivity of aging oil palm trees. However, the high costs associated with replanting often create a financial burden for farmers. To address this issue, the study proposes the implementation of a contribution or levy system for smallholder farmers while their oil palm plantations are still productive, which would alleviate the financial burden of replanting. The research methodology employed includes a literature review and primary data collection through a survey of smallholder farmers, with the data being processed to create a mathematical model and simulated using the Python programming language. The results of this study include the development of a mathematical model for the levy and distribution of replanting costs, along with a simulation of the proposed system. This model could help smallholder farmers prepare for replanting costs, enhance the sustainability of palm oil production, and ultimately increase productivity.

Attenuating measurement errors in agricultural productivity analysis by combining objective and self-reported survey data

This paper exploits unique survey data from Mali to validate an alternative approach to estimate the relationship between crop yields and inputs. The estimation relies on predicted objective crop yields that stem from a machine learning model trained on a random subsample of surveyed plots, for which crop cutting and self-reported sorghum yield estimates are both available. The analysis demonstrates that it is possible to predict sorghum yields with attenuated non-classical measurement error, resulting in a less-biased assessment of the relationship between yields and agricultural inputs. The external validity of the findings based on the data from a sub-national survey experiment is verified using the data from a nationally representative agricultural survey. The discussion expands on the implications of the findings for the design of future surveys where objective data collection could be limited to a subsample to save costs, with the intention to apply the suggested machine learning approach.

Preliminary Results of Relationship between Oil Palm Harvest Losses and Harvest Interval in Riau and West Kalimantan, Indonesia

Oil palm smallholders, in particular non-plasma independent smallholders, experience significant yield gaps. Closing this yield gap is important to enhance sustainable livelihoods for oil palm smallholders and reduce the risk of yield increase through expansion. One of the key factors influencing yield is the harvest interval (number of days between two harvesting rounds). Although standards for Good Agricultural Practices regarding oil palm prescribe a harvest interval of 7-10 days, independent smallholders often maintain a harvest interval of 12-30 days. A longer harvesting interval not only reduces the number of fresh fruit bunch harvested per hectare per month but also leads to a larger harvest loss from overripe fruits falling to the ground, deteriorating quickly (harvest loss). We followed an interdisciplinary research approach, combining insights from agronomy and anthropology, to better understand farmers’ practices, and drivers and challenges underlying decision-making. The approach consisted of field audits, farmer surveys, and qualitative interviews to explore which factors impact harvest interval. The harvest interval of smallholders in Riau and West Kalimantan ranged from 11 to 30 days. Farmers followed long harvest intervals (>16-d) due to the low fresh fruit bunch yield. However, longer harvest intervals increased potential harvest losses.

Evaluation of the green development efficiency of marine fish culture in China

Green development efficiency (GDE) is an important criterion for measuring the level of green development. GDE considers not only economic development efficiency but also environmental costs. In China, marine fish culture, as one of the pillar industries of mariculture, promotes green development and industrial transformation and upgradation. Based on data from the field surveys of marine fish farmers (2017–2019) and the China Fishery Statistical Yearbook (2018–2020), this study establishes an evaluation index system and uses the super-slack-based measure model (Super-SBM) to evaluate the GDE of marine fish culture. The results show that the average GDE of marine fish culture in China was 0.9529, which was in an inefficient state. As for culture species, golden pompano (Trachinotus ovatus) and cobia (Rachycentron canadum) were the two species farmed in an efficient state, with a GDE of 1.2107 and 1.0659, respectively. Regarding culture modes, green modes (offshore cage aquaculture, industrial recirculating aquaculture, and engineering pond aquaculture) were in an efficient state, with a GDE of 1.2310, 1.0827, and 1.0401, respectively. Traditional modes (industrial flow-through aquaculture, ordinary cage aquaculture, and ordinary pond aquaculture) were in an inefficient state, with their GDE being 0.9884, 0.8746, and 0.8248, respectively. Green modes have higher GDE than traditional modes. In contrast, the production and culture areas of green modes were less than those of traditional modes because the profits of the same species in green modes were lower than those in traditional modes. The results of this study present an objective assessment of the GDE of marine fish culture in China and provide valuable insights for analyzing the mechanisms to improve the GDE of marine fish culture.

Assessing the environmental impacts of beef production chains integrating grazing and landless systems

Livestock production systems contribute significantly to environmental impacts at the global level, and meat consumption is projected to increase with the population. There is a need to reduce the impact of food production, including that from beef systems. Different production systems, ranging from traditional grazing to landless systems, coexist within the beef sector. Among these, mixed systems have emerged as a promising alternative. These mixed systems typically involve adult cattle in grazing systems alongside fattening calves in landless systems, potentially achieving higher productivity while reducing the overall environmental impacts. The first step towards proposing mitigation strategies involves identifying the impacts of the sector. This study aimed to estimate the main environmental impacts of four types of mixed beef systems based on the origin of the calves that are raised, fattened, and slaughtered. Using life cycle assessment, the study evaluated the environmental impacts from the cradle to the slaughterhouse gate, expressed per kilogram of carcass weight. The four systems assessed include suckler cow farms that fatten their own offspring (beef single farm, BSF), a system in which calves raised on a suckler farm are fattened on a different farm (beef fattening unit, BFU), and systems in which dairy calves are fattened on growing units, with calves either from Spain (dairy national, DN) or from farms located abroad (dairy abroad, DA). Primary data were obtained from representative surveys of farmers and slaughterhouses, and allocation between co-products was performed according to the updated guidelines of Environmental Product Declarations and the Product Category Rules for meat. Seven environmental impact categories were assessed: climate change, marine eutrophication, freshwater eutrophication, stratospheric ozone depletion, terrestrial acidification, photochemical ozone formation on ecosystems, and photochemical ozone formation on human health. The results indicate that meat production from BSF and BFU has greater environmental impacts than that from DN and DA systems, primarily due to the lower environmental burden allocated to dairy calves, whereas the contribution of slaughterhouse activities to the environmental impacts was minimal. This study highlights the importance of mitigating the environmental impacts associated with feed production, enteric fermentation, and manure management in beef systems. Future studies should consider potential environmental benefits of grazing animals such as carbon sequestration and biodiversity promotion.

The first outbreak of African swine fever in Sweden: a survey of pig farmers' perceptions of information received, risks, biosecurity measures and future prospects

BackgroundAfrican swine fever (ASF), a viral hemorrhagic disease in domestic pigs and wild boar with up to 100% case fatality, was confirmed in Swedish wild boar in September 2023. The responsible authorities launched a control programme to eradicate the infection. The aim of the current study was to understand (i) how Swedish pig farmers have perceived the information issued by authorities and other stakeholders since the discovery of ASF in wild boar, (ii) which risks they see for introducing the infection to their farm, (iii) what biosecurity measures they have taken on their farms, and (iv) their outlook on the future. Such information is important for evaluating the effectiveness of the early stages of ASF control in Sweden. A questionnaire was designed and distributed to members of the Swedish pig producers’ organisation.ResultsA total of 155 farmers responded to the survey (response rate 36%). Almost all respondents had received general information about ASF (91%, n = 138), and 72% (n = 109) had received information about how they can protect their farm from ASF introduction. A majority (87%, n = 118) thought the information was easy to understand, 90% (n = 137) that is was relevant, and 77% (n = 117) that they currently did not lack any information. If given the resources necessary, 58% (n = 84) of the farmers would like to take additional measures such as fencing, and heavily reduce or eradicate the wild boar population. Wild boars were considered the greatest risk for introduction of ASF into their herd (39%, n = 57), followed by people (30%, n = 44), and transports (16%, n = 23). Many farmers (66%, n = 88) had a positive outlook on the future, and 89% (n = 127) have not changed their plans for the future since the ASF outbreak.ConclusionsThe responding farmers were in general satisfied with the information received in the beginning of the ASF outbreak. The majority have a positive outlook on the future and the outbreak has not caused them to change their plans. Actions that were highlighted as important to safeguard Sweden's pig production included measures to control the wild boar population.

Perennial soil characteristics are the main factor driving in vitro inhibition of the wheat fungal pathogen Fusarium graminearum in a French case study

AbstractSoils are termed ‘suppressive’ when they can limit the emergence and propagation of plant diseases. However, little is known regarding what factors determine suppressiveness and whether they could be improved for a given soil. Agricultural practices, such as tillage systems, influence the properties of the soil, and could be a lever to improve soil suppression of pathogens. In this study, we investigated the impact of soil type and crop management practices on soil suppressiveness towards Fusarium graminearum, a major winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) pathogen. As it is transmitted via crop residues left on soil, F. graminearum is susceptible to soil suppression. Soil suppressiveness has been evaluated in more than a 100 sampled fields in the Limagne plain (Puy‐de‐Dôme, France), to represent a great diversity of soil types (either calcisol, vertisol or fluvisol) and cropping systems (organic, reduced tillage or intensive cropping systems). The physicochemical composition of the sampled soils and crop management practices, identified through farmer surveys, were included in a generalized linear mixed‐effect model to explain soil fungistasis. A fungistasis test was performed by putting a plug of PDA‐agar inoculated with Fusarium in contact with the soil and measuring the area of fungal growth. This test revealed a wide variety of soil fungistatic properties, ranging from conducive soils (22% of soil covered by fungal growth) to very suppressive soils (1% of soil covered). Suppressiveness was related to soil perennial properties (p‐value <.001) rather than practices. Overall, these results show that soil type and composition play a key role in fungistasis, and that soil suppressiveness is a complex, multifactorial process.

Shade versus intensification: Trade-off or synergy for profitability in coffee agroforestry systems?

CONTEXTCoffee agroforestry systems (shaded coffee) are considered less productive but more resilient than more intensive production systems. A persistent challenge for coffee farmers is the extreme fluctuations in coffee prices, leading to a loss of profitability and lower investment in production. There are contrasting conclusions regarding the profitability trade-off between increasing productivity through intensification and the sustainability benefits of shade tree coffee agroforestry systems. OBJECTIVEUsing a typology of different intensification and sustainability coffee production strategies in Costa Rica and Guatemala, we assess the economic feasibility and sensitivity of those strategies under likely future scenarios of price and cost variability. METHODSBased on on-farm survey data from a large-scale survey of farmers with information on costs, prices and yields over ten years, a probabilistic cash flow analysis was used to create a stochastic model for net returns. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSUnder future price scenarios, the Net Present Value (NPV) for coffee production was greatest for the high-productivity farms with high investment and moderate shade levels. The NPV of low-investment farms was greater (and positive) for highly shaded coffee production than for low shade coffee production (which, on average, had a negative NPV), despite the two having similar levels of investment. Diversification with bananas or avocados in association with coffee only improved NPV for high-value export avocado. Despite the substantially higher production costs for the high productivity systems, they generally maintained higher probabilities of achieving a positive net cash income or achieving a living income under most labour, fertilizer or coffee price scenarios, except a 50% fall in coffee prices. Diversification effects were as sensitive to changes in labour and input costs but in most cases reduced the probability of a more pronounced negative net cash income under low coffee price scenarios. We find an increase in coffee prices by 50% was needed to enable all farmers to achieve a positive net cash income; with an increased probability of achieving returns comparable with a living wage for higher productivity systems. SIGNIFICANCEWe conclude that high-investment, high-productivity coffee production systems are compatible with shade-grown production; more likely to lead to economic success and achieve positive returns under most conditions, except large falls in coffee prices. For farmers with limited capacity to invest, high-shade production systems provide a positive cash return under a broader range of price conditions than low-shade systems.