Weight loss surgery is an effective, long-term treatment for severe obesity but individual response to surgery varies widely. The purpose of this study was to test a comprehensive theoretical model of factors that may be correlated with the greatest surgical weight loss at 1-3years following surgery. Such a model would help determine what predictive factors to measure when patients are preparing for surgery that may ensure the best weight outcomes. The Bariatric Experience Long Term (BELONG) study collected self-reported and medical record-based baseline information as correlates of 1- and 3-year % total weight loss (TWL) in n = 1341 patients. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the associations between 120 baseline variables and %TWL. Participants were 43.4 ± 11.3years old, Hispanic or Black (52%; n = 699), women (86%; n = 1149), and partnered (72%; n = 965) and had annual incomes of ≥ $51,000 (60%; n = 803). A total of 1006 (75%) had 3-year follow-up weight. Regression models accounted for 10.1% of the variance in %TWL at 1-year and 13.6% at 3years. Only bariatric operation accounted for a clinically meaningful difference (~ 5%) in %TWL at 1-year. At 3years after surgery, only bariatric operation, Black race, and BMI ≥ 50kg/m2 were associated with clinically meaningful differences in %TWL. Our findings combined with many others support a move away from extensive screening and selection of patients at the time of surgery to a focus on improving access to this treatment.