Surface Latent Heat Flux Anomalies Research Articles

On the Role of Wind–Evaporation–SST Feedbacks in the Subseasonal Variability of the East Pacific ITCZ

Abstract The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a zonally elongated band of near-surface convergence and precipitation near the equator. During boreal spring, the eastern Pacific ITCZ migrates latitudinally on daily to subseasonal time scales, and climate models exhibit the greatest ITCZ biases during this time of the year. In this work, we investigate the air–sea interactions associated with the variability in the eastern Pacific ITCZ’s latitudinal location for consecutive days when the ITCZ is only located north of the equator (nITCZ events) compared to when the ITCZ is on both sides of the equator or south of the equator (dsITCZ events) during February–April. The distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and surface latent heat flux (SLHF) anomalies during the nITCZ and dsITCZ events follow the classic wind–evaporation–SST (WES) positive feedback mechanism. However, an alternative mechanism, embracing the effect of SST anomalies on vertical stratification and momentum mixing, gives rise to a negative WES feedback. Our results show that in the surface layer, there is a general progression of positive WES feedbacks happening in the weeks leading to the events followed by negative WES feedbacks occurring after the ITCZ events, with an alternate mechanism involving air–sea humidity differences limiting evaporation occurring in between. Additionally, the spatial structures of the components of the feedbacks are nearly mirror images for these opposite ITCZ events over the east Pacific during boreal spring. In closing, we find that understanding the air–sea interactions during daily to weekly varying ITCZ events (nITCZ and dsITCZ) helps to pinpoint how fundamental processes differ for ITCZs in different hemispheres.

Equatorward shift of ENSO-related subtropical jet anomalies in recent decades

Using observations, NCEP-NCAR and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, numerical experiments and CMIP6 model outputs, this study investigates long-term changes in the meridional position of subtropical jet anomalies in association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is found that the subtropical jet anomalies associated with ENSO index (i.e., Niño3.4 index in this study) over both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) significantly (at the 99% confidence level) shift equatorward since the 1960s, at the speeds of 1.28 and 1.00° per decade, respectively. In recent six decades, the subtropical jet anomalies have moved equatorward by 4.34 and 3.19° over NH and SH, respectively. Our analysis indicates that the tropical positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with Niño3.4 (corresponding to its warm phase) during 1990–2020 (P2) are weaker than those during 1950–1980 (P1). The weak, positive SST anomalies induce tropical weak, positive surface latent heat flux and precipitation anomalies, which heat tropical troposphere and produce weak, positive geopotential height anomaly with a narrow meridional width over the tropics during P2. According to geostrophic wind relations, anomalous positive zonal winds occur over the subtropics in the upper troposphere, meaning strengthened subtropical westerly jets over NH and SH. Hence, the relatively weak, narrow positive geopotential height anomaly during P2 favors the equatorward shift of Niño3.4-related subtropical jet anomalies via geostrophic wind relations. The results from numerical experiments and CMIP6 model outputs also indicate that changes in tropical SST anomalies associated with Niño3.4 contribute to this equatorward shift, supporting the results from reanalysis datasets. These results suggest that the intensity of tropical SST anomalies linked to ENSO should be well resolved to better simulate and predict subtropical jet variations.

Discrepant effects of atmospheric adjustments in shaping the spatial pattern of SST anomalies between extreme and moderate El Niños

AbstractThe surface heat flux anomalies during El Niño events have always been treated as an atmospheric response to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). However, whether they play roles in the formation of SSTAs remain unclear. In this study, we find that the surface net heat flux anomalies in different El Niño types have different effects on the development of the spatial pattern of SSTAs. By applying the fuzzy clustering method, El Niño events during 1982–2018 are classified into two types: extreme (moderate) El Niños with strong (moderate) positive SSTAs, with the largest SSTAs in the eastern (central) equatorial Pacific. The surface net heat flux anomalies in extreme El Niños generally display a “larger warming gets more damping” zonal paradigm, and essentially do not impact the formation of the spatial pattern of SSTAs. Those in moderate El Niños, however, can impact the formation of the spatial pattern of SSTA, by producing more damping effects in the eastern than in the central equatorial Pacific, thus favoring the largest SSTAs being confined to the central equatorial Pacific. The more damping effects of net heat flux anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific in moderate El Niños are contributed by the surface latent heat flux anomalies, which are mainly regulated by the negative relative humidity–SST feedback and the positive wind–evaporation–SST feedback. Therefore, we highlightthat these two atmospheric adjustments should be considered during the development of moderate El Niños in order to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the formation of El Niño diversity.

Dominant Process for Northward Propagation of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Over the Western North Pacific

AbstractNorthward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) has significant impacts on extreme events over Asia and Europe. Here we test hypotheses that northward propagation mechanisms over the WNP may differ from those over the Indian Ocean (IO) by performing numerical experiments with changing mean states through lowering the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Our results suggest that air‐sea interaction plays a dominant role in the propagation over the WNP, whereas the mean vertical wind shear mechanism is the major driver over the IO. Lowering TP significantly reduces sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies to the north of BSISO center due to the enhanced surface wind and latent heat flux anomalies. This air‐sea interaction reduces upward transport of heat and moisture from surface to lower troposphere, weakening the northward propagation over the WNP. This study implies changes in SST patterns under global warming may influence BSISO propagation.

Wind Speed, Surface Flux, and Intraseasonal Convection Coupling From CYGNSS Data

AbstractThis study analyzes wind speed and surface latent heat flux anomalies from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), aiming to understand the physical mechanisms regulating intraseasonal convection, particularly associated with the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO). An advantage of CYGNSS compared to other space‐based data sets is that its surface wind speed retrievals have reduced attenuation by precipitation, thus providing improved information about the importance of wind‐induced surface fluxes for the maintenance of convection. Consistent with previous studies from buoys, CYGNSS shows that enhanced MJO precipitation is associated with enhanced wind speeds, and that associated surface heat flux anomalies have a magnitude about 7–12% of precipitation anomalies. Thus, latent heat flux anomalies are an important maintenance mechanism for MJO convection through the column moist static energy budget. A composite analysis during boreal summer over the eastern north Pacific also supports the idea that wind‐induced surface flux is important for MJO maintenance there.

Pre-earthquake Atmospheric and Ionospheric Anomalies before Taiwan Earthquakes (M 6.1 and M 6.4) on February (4th and 6th), 2018

Satellite measurements are becoming popular among the scientific community to identify earthquake precursors since its spatial coverage is more and round the clock measurements are possible. In this paper, we analyzed Total Electron Content (TEC), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Surface Latent Heat flux (SLHF) and Sea Surface Temperature(SST) to identify any abnormal anomalies before Taiwan earthquakes which occurred on 4th February 2018 (M = 6.1, depth = 12 km) and 6th February 2018 (M = 6.4, depth = 17 km). The GPS data of International GNSS Service(IGS) stations (TWTF and CKSV) which operated 90 and 200 km away from the epicenter of the earthquake on 6th February 2018 respectively, were used for calculation of VTEC. The locations of these stations are within the preparatory zone of these earthquakes. The global parameters such as Dst, Kp, and IMF are also analyzed for the corresponding period of VTEC. We noticed the raise of temporal variations of 5–8 TECU before few days of the present earthquakes. The VTEC and other parameters such as SLP, SST, SLHF, and OLR were analyzed using the “Sliding Interquartile range method” during the period of 09th Jan to 10th Feb 2018 (33 days) to identify the abnormal signal due to these earthquakes. Strong positive anomalies occurred one day before the earthquake of 4th February and 1st, 3rd and 5th day before the Taiwan earthquake of 6th February 2018 with strong anomalous nature with an absolute amplitude of 5–8 TECU.The Cross wavelet analysis between Kp and TEC is carried out to study the impact of global geomagnetic activity on TEC during the seismic event and we found a negligible influence of global geomagnetic activity. The good raise of SLP on the day of the earthquake on 6th February 2018 have been noticed with the raise of 300 mb, the SLHF anomalies are observed at the interface of the earth’s surface and atmosphere. Moreover, anomalous variations in air temperature and OLR were observed 2 days before the occurrence of the earthquake on 6th February 2018. Well co-ordinated scrutiny of various parameters such as TEC, SLHF, and OLR indicates that they can be used as promising precursors to the impending devastating earthquakes with reasonable accuracy.

Seasonal predictability of the tropical Atlantic variability: northern tropical Atlantic pattern

A series of ensemble predictability experiments in a setting of the “perfect” model scenario have been conducted using the global coupled community earth system model (CESM), Version 1.1, to evaluate the seasonal predictability of the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) pattern in the tropical Atlantic variability (TAV). Our analysis of an 86-year control simulation shows that CESM reproduces the annual cycle and interannual variability realistically. In particular, the NTA patterns, extracted as the first modes of the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analyses, are consistent between the model and observations. A set of the extreme NTA events is selected from the control simulation based on the peaking values of the time series of the NTA mode. Ensemble predictability experiments are conducted to predict each of these events as the “truth” at seasonal lead times with small perturbations of the atmospheric initial states. The correlation and root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean, as well as the ensemble spread and reliability, are used to assess the prediction skill quantitatively. It demonstrates that the model can forecast the NTA events skillfully at monthly leads up to 9 months. Composite analysis of the predicted positive and negative events is conducted to explore the physical influences of the regional air–sea interaction and the remote forcing from outside the Atlantic basin, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that the surface latent heat flux anomalies, generated by surface wind anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic from boreal fall and winter, force the NTA SST anomalies that peak in spring. Most of these wind anomalies are in turn generated by the remote ENSO forcing. As a result, the NTA pattern can be predicted realistically as long as the ENSO events are predictable.

Correction to: Evolution features of the surface latent heat flux anomalies over the tropical Pacific associated with two types of ENSO events

The present study investigates the features of the surface latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies and their related variables over the tropical Pacific during two types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and seeks a possible candidate for the main contributions to the LHF anomalies. During El Nino Modoki and canonical El Nino events, the LHFs show positive anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific and in the areas immediately south of the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, the largest magnitudes and widest ranges of positive LHF anomalies for both types of events occur during their mature stages rather than during their developing or decaying phases. Analyses show that the positive LHF anomalies associated with both events are largely affected by the positive sea-air humidity difference anomalies. However, the negative surface wind speed anomalies associated with the canonical El Nino events clearly contribute to the decreases in the positive LHF anomalies over the central Pacific and in the area immediately north of the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the presence of westerly and northerly anomalies, respectively. Moreover, over the equatorial central Pacific and in the area immediately south of the eastern Pacific, the LHF anomalies are mainly influenced by oceanic variables during both types of ENSO events, indicating an atmospheric response to oceanic forcing. In contrast, outside of the area spanning 10° north and south of the equator in the tropical Pacific and with the exception of the southeastern region, the LHF anomalies are greatly influenced by atmospheric variables, suggesting an oceanic response to atmospheric forcing. Distinct differences exist during the mature event phase, with oceanic forcing dominating the equatorial central Pacific during El Nino Modoki events and the area immediately south of the equatorial eastern Pacific during canonical El Nino events. In addition, both types of ENSO events suggest the increasing influence of oceanic forcing over the equatorial eastern Pacific during ENSO event evolutions.

Evolution features of the surface latent heat flux anomalies over the tropical Pacific associated with two types of ENSO events

Evolution features of the surface latent heat flux anomalies over the tropical Pacific associated with two types of ENSO events

Summer Rainfall Anomaly over Eastern China Teleconnected with Air-Sea Flux in East-Asia Seas

ABSTRACT Qi, Q.; Cai, R., and Bai, Y., 2017. Summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China teleconnected with air-sea flux in East-Asia seas. In: Zhi, Y. and Guido Aldana, P.A. (eds.), Sustainability of Water Resources and the Development of Coastal Environments: Select Proceedings from the 2016 International Conference on Water Resource and Environment (WRE2016). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 80, pp. 18–23. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The optimum time-lagged teleconnection patterns of sea surface latent heat flux (LHF) and water vapor flux (WVF) anomalies in East-Asia seas with summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China were calculated by applying singular value decomposition (SVD) method. Preceding winter LHF mostly in the Kuroshio area, the Bay of Bengal and the zone of the North equatorial current may affect the summer rainfall at southeast coastal areas. In spring and summer, the LHF mostly in Indian-Pacific warm pool region works, corresponding to a dipole distribution of ...

Monsoon Gyres of the Northwest Pacific: Influences of ENSO, the MJO, and the Pacific–Japan Pattern

Abstract An objective definition of monsoon gyres in the northwest Pacific was developed in order to construct a gyre climatology. Over a 31-yr period, 53 gyres were identified with a median formation location at 16.5°N, 135°E. More than 80% formed during July–September. More than half of gyres developed during El Niño periods at a median location 1200 km farther to the east-southeast than during La Niña. Cyclonic winds at 850 hPa extended across a diameter of more than 4000 km, with maximum tangential wind near the 1000-km radius. A precipitation maximum extended westward for several thousand kilometers south of the gyre. Typhoons were most common north and east of the gyre centers. More than 70% of gyres developed during large-amplitude MJO events, with a strong preference for Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) phases 5–7. In boreal summer these phases contain circulation and convective anomalies that coincide most closely with those of the climatological monsoon trough. Gyres are most likely to form when an active, large-amplitude MJO event superposes with the monsoon trough in the presence of high sea surface temperature. Gyres exhibited 850-hPa wind, height, and vorticity anomalies and surface latent heat flux anomalies that closely resembled the active Pacific–Japan pattern (PJP). This was especially true during La Niña, even though no attempt was made to isolate the PJP. It is hypothesized that an active MJO modulates gyre formation, and the gyres project onto the active phase of the PJP as they move westward.

An Examination of the Thermodynamic Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Their Tropical Tropospheric Environment

Abstract The present study examines the tropospheric thermodynamic anomalies induced by western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) passage using storm-relative composites. Negative moist static energy (MSE) anomalies containing embedded westward-propagating anomalies generally occur only following larger TCs for two months following TC passage in a region extending from the domain center to ~3000 km to its west. Larger TCs force negative MSE anomalies likely because of feedbacks from stronger, broader TC-induced negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the excitation of TC-induced Rossby waves to the southeast of the TC. The negative MSE anomalies are composed of lower- and midtropospheric negative latent energy anomalies with smaller contributions from boundary layer and upper-tropospheric negative sensible heat anomalies. The lower- and midtropospheric negative MSE anomalies are forced by the TC, whereas the upper-tropospheric negative MSE anomalies are forced by the Madden–Julian oscillation. Vertically integrated MSE budgets at the domain center reveal negative MSE tendencies that are primarily forced by surface latent heat flux anomalies resulting from the TC-induced negative SST anomalies. Smaller negative MSE tendencies are due to 1) zonal and meridional advection of MSE anomalies by the Rossby waves and 2) enhanced top-of-the-atmosphere longwave radiative flux anomalies potentially associated with a reduction in the greenhouse gas effect of water vapor. The budget analysis in the west region is generally similar except that all terms are comparable in magnitude and relatively weaker. These results conservatively suggest that larger TCs can anomalously cool and dry their synoptic-scale environment for ~40 days following TC passage.

Intraseasonal SST variations in the South China Sea during boreal winter and impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon

AbstractPresent study documents the intraseasonal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) during boreal winter and its association with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) variability. In northern Tropics, the largest intraseasonal variability of SST during boreal winter is found in the SCS, with two localized regions of large standard deviation, one extending westward from the Luzon Strait and the other extending southward from the coast of central Vietnam. Correspondingly, large intraseasonal variability in surface heat fluxes is observed in the above regions. Analysis shows that the formation of large intraseasonal SST anomalies in these regions is attributed largely to wind‐related surface latent heat flux changes, with supplementary contribution from cloud‐related surface shortwave radiation changes. Wind‐induced Ekman advection has a negative effect, and the Ekman upwelling pattern differs from the intraseasonal SST anomaly pattern. The intraseasonal variations of SST in the SCS display a close association with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) change with a time lag of 3–5 days. In a weak (strong) phase of the EAWM, decrease (increase) in surface wind speed and suppression (enhancement) in surface latent heat flux lead to intraseasonal SST warming (cooling). This intraseasonal SST signal displays a southward propagation with the SST change in northern SCS leading that in southern SCS by about 2 days. A similar southward propagation is seen in surface wind speed and latent heat flux anomalies. The southward propagation of cloud and shortwave radiation anomalies is limited to northern part of the SCS.

Effects of northern and southern components of the East Asian winter monsoon variability on SST changes in the western North Pacific

AbstractThe present study investigates the impacts of the two components of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) variability on sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the western North Pacific. When the EAWM is stronger than normal, significant negative SST anomalies form in the East Asian marginal seas and subtropical western North Pacific and persist from winter to the following spring. It is found that winter‐spring SST anomalies in the Yellow Sea and the Japan Sea have a close association with the northern component of the EAWM variability, whereas the southern component has a large impact on SST changes in subtropical western North Pacific. The two components induce SST anomalies through both surface heat flux and oceanic advection changes. The surface latent heat flux is predominantly responsible for SST changes. The oceanic advection has a secondary contribution to the SST change in subtropical western North Pacific associated with the northern component and in the Japan Sea associated with the southern component. The surface latent heat flux anomalies associated with the northern component are induced through changes in both wind speed and sea‐air humidity difference, and those associated with the southern component are induced mainly through changes in sea‐air humidity difference north of 20°N. The SST anomalies induced by the northern component are mostly independent of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While ENSO has a large effect on the SST anomalies in open oceanic regions, the southern component has a dominant contribution independent of ENSO to the SST anomalies in the marginal seas.

MJO Intensification with Warming in the Superparameterized CESM

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, characterized by an eastward-propagating envelope of convective anomalies with a 30–70-day time scale. Here, the authors report changes in MJO activity across coupled simulations with a superparameterized version of the NCAR Community Earth System Model. They find that intraseasonal OLR variance nearly doubles between a preindustrial control run and a run with 4×CO2. Intraseasonal precipitation increases at a rate of roughly 10% per 1 K of warming, and MJO events become 20%–30% more frequent. Moist static energy (MSE) budgets of composite MJO events are calculated for each scenario, and changes in budget terms are used to diagnose the physical processes responsible for changes in the MJO with warming. An increasingly positive contribution from vertical advection is identified as the most likely cause of the enhanced MJO activity. A decomposition links the changes in vertical advection to a steepening of the mean MSE profile, which is a robust thermodynamic consequence of warming. Surface latent heat flux anomalies are a significant sink of MJO MSE at 1×CO2, but this damping effect is reduced in the 4×CO2 case. This work has implications for organized tropical variability in past warm climates as well as future global warming scenarios.

North African vegetation–precipitation feedback in early and mid-Holocene climate simulations with CCSM3-DGVM

Abstract. The present study analyses the sign, strength, and working mechanism of the vegetation–precipitation feedback over North Africa in middle (6 ka BP) and early Holocene (9 ka BP) simulations using the comprehensive coupled climate–vegetation model CCSM3-DGVM (Community Climate System Model version 3 and a dynamic global vegetation model). The coupled model simulates enhanced summer rainfall and a northward migration of the West African monsoon trough along with an expansion of the vegetation cover for the early and middle Holocene compared to the pre-industrial period. It is shown that dynamic vegetation enhances the orbitally triggered summer precipitation anomaly by approximately 20% in the Sahara–Sahel region (10–25° N, 20° W–30° E) in both the early and mid-Holocene experiments compared to their fixed-vegetation counterparts. The primary vegetation–rainfall feedback identified here operates through surface latent heat flux anomalies by canopy evaporation and transpiration and their effect on the mid-tropospheric African easterly jet, whereas the effects of vegetation changes on surface albedo and local water recycling play a negligible role. Even though CCSM3-DGVM simulates a positive vegetation–precipitation feedback in the North African region, this feedback is not strong enough to produce multiple equilibrium climate-ecosystem states on a regional scale.

Brief Communication: The interaction of clouds with surface latent heat flux variation before the 2011 <i>M</i> = 6.1 Russia earthquake

Abstract. Recently, surface latent heat flux (SLHF) data have been widely used to study the anomalies before earthquakes. Most studies use the daily SLHF data. Here we use both the daily SLHF data and the high temporal resolution (four times one day) SLHF data, and compare the SLHF changes with satellite cloud images at the first time. We check the data from 1 September to 30 October 2011, and the result shows that there is really a very high SLHF anomaly (more than 2σ) in the epicenter area just 5 days before the M = 6.1 Russia earthquake that occurred on 14 October 2011. It should be considered as a preseismic precursor if judged with previously published methods, but our comparison between SLHF change and satellite images shows that the SLHF anomaly is contaminated by a thick cloud. It is difficult to verify that this SLHF anomaly is caused by an earthquake and our analysis shows that it is more related to meteorological reason. This example tells us that scientists must know the data's meaning before they use it; if not, they may draw a wrong conclusion. Based on this example, we suggest that previously published SLHF anomalies before earthquakes should be reanalyzed with our method to exclude the false anomalies.

Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) within an African Easterly Wave: Sensitivity Analyses of WRF-LETKF Ensemble Forecasts

Abstract In this study, the predictability of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) is explored by conducting ensemble sensitivity analyses on the TCG of Hurricane Julia (2010). Using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), the dominant patterns of ensemble disagreements are revealed for various meteorological parameters such as mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and upper-tropospheric temperature. Using the principal components of the EOF patterns, ensemble sensitivities are generated to elucidate which mechanisms drive the parametric ensemble differences. The dominant pattern of MSLP ensemble spread is associated with the intensity of the pre–tropical depression (pre-TD), explaining nearly half of the total variance at each respective time. Similar modes of variance are found for the low-level absolute vorticity, though the patterns explain substantially less variance. Additionally, the largest modes of variability associated with upper-level temperature anomalies closely resemble the patterns of MSLP variance, suggesting interconnectedness between the two parameters. Sensitivity analyses at both the pre-TD and TCG stages reveal that the MSLP disturbance is strongly correlated to upper-tropospheric temperature and, to a lesser degree, surface latent heat flux anomalies. Further sensitivity analyses uncover a statistically significant correlation between upper-tropospheric temperature and convective anomalies, consistent with the notion that deep convection is important for augmenting the upper-tropospheric warmth during TCG. Overall, the ensemble forecast differences for the TCG of Julia are strongly related to the processes responsible for MSLP falls and low-level cyclonic vorticity growth, including the growth of upper-tropospheric warming and persistent deep convection.

Change in surface latent heat flux and its association with tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific

The present study investigates the influence of June through November (JJASON) thermal state of the western North Pacific warm pool on surface latent heat flux and their association with tropical cyclone (TC) genesis by using 25 level water temperature data with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) operational ocean analysis (ORA-S3), the monthly mean fluxes from Objectively Analyzed Air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) Project, and the tropical cyclone data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). It is found that positive (negative) latent heat flux anomalies over the western North Pacific are associated with warm (cold) state of the warm pool. The analysis suggests that the change in sea-air humidity difference has a direct contribution to surface latent heat flux anomalies over the western Pacific in warm state years of the warm pool. However, the change in surface wind speed is the main cause of surface latent heat flux anomalies over central tropical Pacific. In cold state years, change in the sea-air humidity difference has a direct contribution to surface latent heat flux anomalies over the western Pacific and central and eastern tropical Pacific, and the change in surface wind speed appears not to be a cause of identified surface latent heat flux anomalies. Moreover, the results show that the sea-air humidity difference contributes to tropical cyclone genesis in warm state years, but in cold state years, tropical cyclone genesis occurs mainly in regions of sea-air humidity difference decrease and surface wind speed increase.

A preliminary evaluation of surface latent heat flux as an earthquake precursor

Abstract. The relationship between variations in surface latent heat flux (SLHF) and marine earthquakes has been a popular subject of recent seismological studies. So far, there are two key problems: how to identify the abnormal SLHF variations from complicated background signals, and how to ensure that the anomaly results from an earthquake. In this paper, we proposed four adjustable parameters for identification, classified the relationship and analyzed SLHF changes several months before six marine earthquakes by employing daily SLHF data. Additionally, we also quantitatively evaluate the long-term relationship between earthquakes and SLHF anomalies for the six study areas over a 20 yr period preceding each earthquake. The results suggest the following: (1) before the South Sandwich Islands, Papua, Samoa and Haiti earthquakes, the SLHF variations above their individual background levels have relatively low amplitudes and are difficult to be considered as precursory anomalies; (2) after removing the clustering effect, most of the anomalies prior to these six earthquakes are not temporally related to any earthquake in each study area in time sequence; (3) for each case, apart from Haiti, more than half of the studied earthquakes, which were moderate and even devastating earthquakes (larger than Mw = 5.3), had no precursory variations in SLHF; and (4) the correlation between SLHF and seismic activity depends largely on data accuracy and parameter settings. Before any application of SLHF data on earthquake prediction, we suggest that anomaly-identifying standards should be established based on long-term regional analysis to eliminate subjectivity. Furthermore, other factors that may result in SLHF variations should also be carefully considered.