The influence of asperity size, friction and residual surface stress on surface initiated rolling contact fatigue damage was investigated using the asperity point load mechanism. A parametric study was performed in two steps, first with a classic one-parameter-at-a-time approach, then as a 2-level full factorial design. The effect on fatigue initiation, damage size and spalling life for both early and developed spalling damage was examined for a gear application. Simplified response surfaces were derived as an engineering design tool for improved spalling resistance. The parametric investigation suggested that among the investigated parameters, reduced asperity height and local asperity friction will have the largest effect on the crack initiation risk. The simulations agreed with the engineering experiences that reduced surface roughness improves rolling contact fatigue resistance and that improved lubrication lengthens spalling lives and decreases fatigue risk. With compressive residual surface stresses the predictions suggested reduced fatigue risk and substantially decreased depth of individual spalls. Finally, predictions of experimentally observed effects of changing asperity size, friction and residual surface stress on spalling further motivates the asperity point load mechanism as the source behind surface initiated rolling contact fatigue.