Surface Freshwater Flux Research Articles

Mixed layer salinity budget in the tropical Pacific Ocean estimated by a global GCM

AbstractThe mixed layer salinity (MLS) budget of the tropical Pacific is investigated using results from a model of the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO). The results focusing on the western Pacific freshwater pool indicate that the long‐term averaged surface freshwater flux is well balanced by ocean dynamics, in which the subsurface processes account for the major part. The MLS budget shows significant seasonal and interannual variability, as a consequence of interplay among surface freshwater flux, advection, mixing, and vertical entrainment. On seasonal time scale, both the MLS and mixed layer depth are largely controlled by surface freshwater flux. The opposite phase between the subsurface processes and the barrier layer thickness confirms the important influence of the barrier layer on vertical mixing and entrainment from below. On interannual time scale, all the MLS budget terms show significant ENSO signal, which in turn is highly correlated with the salinity front and barrier layer thickness in the equatorial Pacific.

A subtropical North Atlantic regional atmospheric moisture budget

AbstractThe synergistic effects of evaporation (E), precipitation (P), and Ekman transport make the Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study (SPURS‐1) region in the subtropical North Atlantic (15–30°N, 30–45°W) the natural location for the world's highest open ocean SSS maximum. Using the MERRA and ERA‐Interim atmospheric reanalyses, we reproduce the mean hydrologic state of the atmosphere over the SPURS‐1 region since 1979 and roughly deduce the change in salinity across the meridional domain due solely to interactions between E‐P and Ekman transport. Our findings suggest a region that is highly evaporative at a mean rate of 4.87 mm/d with a standard deviation of 1.2 mm/d and little seasonality. Precipitation is much more variable with an annual fall maximum around 3 mm/d but only a mean rate of 1.37 mm/d with a standard deviation of 1.46 mm/d. The resulting E‐P variable has a mean rate of 3.50 mm/d with a standard deviation of 1.92 mm/d and matches well with the moisture flux divergence term although the former is typically larger by a small margin. Strong prevailing easterly trade winds generate northward Ekman transports that advect water toward the salinity maximum around 25°N. A short calculation shows that atmospheric moisture dynamics could potentially account for about one third of the change in salinity between 15°N and 25°N giving an estimate of the role that surface freshwater flux plays in the maintenance of the salinity maximum.

Dynamical structure of the sea off the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia

The regional ocean modelling system (ROMS), at a resolution of 9 km, is used to investigate the dynamics of the sea off the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (ECPM). The model is configured with two, one-way nested domains. Two simulations are performed in order to understand the dynamical structure of the sea off ECPM. The first simulation is a control run, using climatological monthly mean wind stress, surface freshwater flux, heat and observational oceanic inflow and outflow at open boundaries. The second simulation is an experiment aimed at presenting the seasonally averaged effect of isolated forcing in the absence of wind stress. This procedure allows understanding of the upwelling mechanism in the absence of wind stress forcing within the region. The model simulated the oceanographic features in the region reasonably well, in particular the circulation and temperature patterns conformed to those of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation and observations. Results show the possibility of upwelling in the summer monsoon along the sea off ECPM. This is due to the strong long-shore wind stress, which coincided with lower sea surface height and high baroclinic instability. The strong positive horizontal transport in accordance with the positive vertical transport within 104.5° E and 105.5° E, at latitude 3° N suggests net offshore transport and the occurrence of upwelling. Moreover, results demonstrate that summer upwelling rate at corresponding latitude induced by the long-shore wind stress is 3 × 10−5 m/s larger than the vertical velocity of 0.5 × 10−5 m/s induced by the wind stress curl. This reflects the importance of the long-shore wind stress for inducing the coastal upwelling. High concentrations of phytoplankton biomass through the proxy of chlorophyll-a concentration and the observed upward motion of denser water at the sea surface are due to the upwelled nutrient-rich water.

Mixed layer heat and salinity budgets during the onset of the 2011 Atlantic cold tongue

The mixed layer (ML) temperature and salinity changes in the central tropical Atlantic have been studied by a dedicated experiment (Cold Tongue Experiment (CTE)) carried out from May to July 2011. The CTE was based on two successive research cruises, a glider swarm, and moored observations. The acquired in situ data sets together with satellite, reanalysis, and assimilation model data were used to evaluate box-averaged ML heat and salinity budgets for two subregions: (1) the western equatorial Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) (23°–10°W) and (2) the region north of the ACT. The strong ML heat loss in the ACT region during the CTE was found to be the result of the balance of warming due to net surface heat flux and cooling due to zonal advection and diapycnal mixing. The northern region was characterized by weak cooling and the dominant balance of net surface heat flux and zonal advection. A strong salinity increase occurred at the equator, 10°W, just before the CTE. During the CTE, ML salinity in the ACT region slightly increased. Largest contributions to the ML salinity budget were zonal advection and the net surface freshwater flux. While essential for the ML heat budget in the ACT region, diapycnal mixing played only a minor role for the ML salinity budget. In the region north of the ACT, the ML freshened at the beginning of the CTE due to precipitation, followed by a weak salinity increase. Zonal advection changed sign contributing to ML freshening at the beginning of the CTE and salinity increase afterward.

A Thermohaline Inverse Method for Estimating Diathermohaline Circulation and Mixing

Abstract The thermohaline inverse method (THIM) is presented that provides estimates of the diathermohaline streamfunction , the downgradient along-isopycnal diffusion coefficient K, and the isotropic downgradient turbulent diffusion coefficient D of small-scale mixing processes. This is accomplished by using the water mass transformation framework in two tracer dimensions: here in Absolute Salinity SA and Conservative Temperature Θ coordinates. The authors show that a diathermal volume transport down a Conservative Temperature gradient is related to surface heating and cooling and mixing, and a diahaline volume transport down an Absolute Salinity gradient is related to surface freshwater fluxes and mixing. Both the diahaline and diathermal flows can be calculated using readily observed parameters that are used to produce climatologies, surface flux products, and mixing parameterizations for K and D. Conservation statements for volume, salt, and heat in (SA, Θ) coordinates, using the diahaline and diathermal volume transport expressed as surface freshwater and heat fluxes and mixing, allow for the formulation of a system of equations that is solved by an inverse method that can estimate the unknown diathermohaline streamfunction and the diffusion coefficients K and D. The inverse solution provides an accurate estimate of , K, and D when tested against a numerical climate model for which all these parameters are known.

Impact of assimilating surface salinity from SMOS on ocean circulation estimates

AbstractIn a pilot attempt, the GECCO2 synthesis system is being used to investigate the impact of SMOS sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on estimates of SSS and freshwater fluxes. The paper focuses on the period 2010–2011, during which, in addition to traditional in situ and satellite observations, SMOS SSS is assimilated. A prior SMOS SSS error field is inferred through a comparison of the satellite data with in situ salinity data and reveals large biases (>1 g/kg) in the SMOS product near continents and in the Southern Ocean. Employing this error estimate in the assimilation procedure leads only to an insignificant impact of SMOS SSS on the estimated ocean state. However, when reducing the error artificially by a factor of 10, the SMOS data can be reproduced well in the interior ocean. In this case, the previously remaining positive model bias with respect to in situ salinity is changed to a negative bias while the misfit slightly increased. The clear freshening can be attributed to the SMOS bias with respect to in situ data. The associated increase in freshwater input in the tropical oceans enhances slightly the correspondence of the estimated fluxes to the independent satellite‐based estimate from HOAPS except for the South Pacific and South Atlantic. On short‐timescales, changes in the estimated surface salinity result primarily from changes in surface freshwater fluxes, while over longer periods ocean dynamics become increasingly more important for changing the near‐surface salinity.

Analysis of seasonal variation of water masses in East China Sea

Seasonal variations of water masses in the East China Sea (ECS) and adjacent areas are investigated, based on historical data of temperature and salinity (T-S). Dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that affect seasonal variations of some dominant water masses are discussed, with reference to meteorological data. In the ECS above depth 600 m, there are eight water masses in summer but only five in winter. Among these, Kuroshio Surface Water (KSW), Kuroshio Intermediate Water (KIW), ECS Surface Water (ECSSW), Continental Coastal Water (CCW), and Yellow Sea Surface Water (YSSW) exist throughout the year. Kuroshio Subsurface Water (KSSW), ECS Deep Water (ECSDW), and Yellow Sea Bottom Water (YSBW) are all seasonal water masses, occurring from May through October. The CCW, ECSSW and KSW all have significant seasonal variations, both in their horizontal and vertical extents and their T-S properties. Wind stress, the Kuroshio and its branch currents, and coastal currents are dynamic factors for seasonal variation in spatial extent of the CCW, KSW, and ECSSW, whereas sea surface heat and freshwater fluxes are thermodynamic factors for seasonal variations of T-S properties and thickness of these water masses. In addition, the CCW is affected by river runoff and ECSSW by the CCW and KSW.

Salinity changes in the World Ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes

Global hydrographic and air–sea freshwater flux datasets are used to investigate ocean salinity changes over 1950–2010 in relation to surface freshwater flux. On multi-decadal timescales, surface salinity increases (decreases) in evaporation (precipitation) dominated regions, the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast increases, and the upper thermocline salinity maximum increases while the salinity minimum of intermediate waters decreases. Potential trends in E–P are examined for 1950–2010 (using two reanalyses) and 1979–2010 (using four reanalyses and two blended products). Large differences in the 1950–2010 E–P trend patterns are evident in several regions, particularly the North Atlantic. For 1979–2010 some coherency in the spatial change patterns is evident but there is still a large spread in trend magnitude and sign between the six E–P products. However, a robust pattern of increased E–P in the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres is seen in all products. There is also some evidence in the tropical Pacific for a link between the spatial change patterns of salinity and E–P associated with ENSO. The water cycle amplification rate over specific regions is subsequently inferred from the observed 3-D salinity change field using a salt conservation equation in variable isopycnal volumes, implicitly accounting for the migration of isopycnal surfaces. Inferred global changes of E–P over 1950–2010 amount to an increase of 1 ± 0.6 % in net evaporation across the subtropics and an increase of 4.2 ± 2 % in net precipitation across subpolar latitudes. Amplification rates are approximately doubled over 1979–2010, consistent with accelerated broad-scale warming but also coincident with much improved salinity sampling over the latter period.

Salt Feedback in the Adiabatic Overturning Circulation

AbstractThe adiabatic overturning circulation is the part of the meridional overturning circulation that persists in the limit of vanishing diffusivity. Two conditions are required for the existence of the adiabatic overturning circulation: a high-latitude zonally reentrant channel subject to surface westerlies and a set of outcropping isopycnals shared between the channel and the opposite hemisphere. This paper examines how different buoyancy forcing regimes, particularly freshwater flux, affect the surface buoyancy distribution and the strength of the adiabatic overturning circulation. Without freshwater forcing, salinity is uniform and buoyancy is determined by temperature only. In this case, the size of the shared isopycnal window is effectively fixed by the coupling between atmospheric and sea surface temperatures. With freshwater forcing (applied as a surface flux), the salinity, and thus the sea surface buoyancy and the size of the shared isopycnal window, is not specified by the atmospheric state alone. It is found that a salt–advection feedback leads to surface buoyancy distributions that increase the size of the isopycnal window and strengthen the adiabatic overturning circulation. The strength of the feedback is controlled by processes in high latitudes—the southern channel, where the surface salinity is determined by a balance between freshwater input from the atmosphere, salt input from upwelling deep water, and freshwater export by Ekman transport; and the Northern Hemisphere, where the overturning and wind-driven transport in the thermocline advect salty water from the subtropics, mitigating the freshening effect of the surface freshwater flux. The freshwater budget in the channel region provides an estimate of the size of the isopycnal window.

The Coherence and Impact of Meridional Heat Transport Anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean Inferred from Observations*

Abstract Observations of thermosteric sea level (TSL) from hydrographic data, equivalent water thickness (EWT) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and altimetric sea surface height (SSH) are used to infer meridional heat transport (MHT) anomalies for the Atlantic Ocean. An “unknown control” version of a Kalman filter in each of eight regions extracts smooth estimates of heat transport convergence (HTC) from discrepancies between the response to monthly surface heat and freshwater fluxes and observed mass and heat content. Two models are used: model A using only the heat budget for 1993–2010 and model B using both heat and mass budgets for 2003–10. Based on the small contributions of mass to SSH, model A is rerun using SSH in place of TSL to improve temporal resolution and data consistency. Estimates of MHT are derived by summing the HTC from north to south assuming either negligible anomalies at 67°N or setting MHT to observed values near 40°N. Both methods show that MHT is highly coherent between 35°S and 40°N. The former method gives a large drop in coherence north of 40°N while the latter method gives a less dramatic drop. Estimated anomalies in MHT comparable to or larger than that recently observed at the Rapid Climate Change and Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID/MOCHA) line at 26.5°N have occurred multiple times in this 18-yr period. Positive anomalies in coherent MHT correspond to increased heat loss in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre demonstrating the feedback of oceanic heat transport anomalies on air–sea fluxes. A correlation of MHT with the Antarctic Oscillation suggests a southern source for the coherent MHT anomalies.

Naturally forced multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The mechanisms by which natural forcing factors alone could drive simulated multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are assessed in an ensemble of climate model simulations. It is shown for a new state-of-the-art general circulation model, HadGEM2-ES, that the most important of these natural forcings, in terms of the multidecadal response of the AMOC, is solar rather than volcanic forcing. AMOC strengthening occurs through a densification of the North Atlantic, driven by anomalous surface freshwater fluxes due to increased evaporation. These are related to persistent North Atlantic atmospheric circulation anomalies, driven by forced changes in the stratosphere, associated with anomalously weak solar irradiance during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Within a period of approximately 100 years the 11-year smoothed ensemble mean AMOC strengthens by 1.5 Sv and subsequently weakens by 1.9 Sv, representing respectively approximately 3 and 4 standard deviations of the 11-year smoothed control simulation. The solar-induced variability of the AMOC has various relevant climate impacts, such as a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, anomalous Amazonian rainfall, and a sustained increase in European temperatures. While this model has only a partial representation of the atmospheric response to solar variability, these results demonstrate the potential for solar variability to have a multidecadal impact on North Atlantic climate.

Two Stable Equilibria of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre

Abstract The cyclonic circulation of the Atlantic subpolar gyre is a key mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on a wide range of time scales. It is generally accepted that it is driven by both cyclonic winds and buoyancy forcing, yet the individual importance and dynamical interactions of the two contributions remain unclear. The authors propose a simplified four-box model representing the convective basin of the Labrador Sea and its shallow and deep boundary current system, the western subpolar gyre. Convective heat loss drives a baroclinic flow of relatively light water around the dense center. Eddy salt flux from the boundary current to the center increases with a stronger circulation, favors the formation of dense waters, and thereby sustains a strong baroclinic flow, approximately 10%–25% of the total. In contrast, when the baroclinic flow is not active, surface waters may be too fresh to convect, and a buoyancy-driven circulation cannot develop. This situation corresponds to a second stable circulation mode. A hysteresis is found for variations in surface freshwater flux and the salinity of the near-surface boundary current. An analytical solution is presented and analyzed.

Arctic Ocean Water Mass Transformation in S–T Coordinates

AbstractIn this paper, water mass transformations in the Arctic Ocean are studied using a recently developed salinity–temperature (S–T) framework. The framework allows the water mass transformations to be succinctly quantified by computing the surface and internal diffusive fluxes in S–T coordinates. This study shows how the method can be applied to a specific oceanic region, in this case the Arctic Ocean, by including the advective exchange of water masses across the boundaries of the region. Based on a simulation with a global ocean circulation model, the authors examine the importance of various parameterized mixing processes and surface fluxes for the transformation of water across isohaline and isothermal surfaces in the Arctic Ocean. The model-based results reveal a broadly realistic Arctic Ocean where the inflowing Atlantic and Pacific waters are primarily cooled and freshened before exiting back to the North Atlantic. In the model, the water mass transformation in the T direction is primarily accomplished by the surface heat flux. However, the surface freshwater flux plays a minor role in the transformation of water toward lower salinities, which is mainly driven by a downgradient mixing of salt in the interior ocean. Near the freezing line, the seasonal melt and growth of sea ice influences the transformation pattern.

The drivers of projected North Atlantic sea level change

Sea level change predicted by the CMIP5 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) is not spatially homogeneous. In particular, the sea level change in the North Atlantic is usually characterised by a meridional dipole pattern with higher sea level rise north of 40°N and lower to the south. The spread among models is also high in that region. Here we evaluate the role of surface buoyancy fluxes by carrying out simulations with the FAMOUS low-resolution AOGCM forced by surface freshwater and heat flux changes from CO2-forced climate change experiments with CMIP5 AOGCMs, and by a standard idealised surface freshwater flux applied in the North Atlantic. Both kinds of buoyancy flux change lead to the formation of the sea level dipole pattern, although the effect of the heat flux has a greater magnitude, and is the main cause of the spread of results among the CMIP5 models. By using passive tracers in FAMOUS to distinguish between additional and redistributed buoyancy, we show that the enhanced sea level rise north of 40°N is mainly due to the direct steric effect (the reduction of sea water density) caused by adding heat or freshwater locally. The surface buoyancy forcing also causes a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and the consequent reduction of the northward ocean heat transport imposes a negative tendency on sea level rise, producing the reduced rise south of 40°N. However, unlike previous authors, we find that this indirect effect of buoyancy forcing is generally less important than the direct one, except in a narrow band along the east coast of the US, where it plays a major role and leads to sea level rise, as found by previous authors.

Assessment of various global freshwater flux products for the global ice-free oceans

In this study, we compare sea surface freshwater flux products over the global ocean for the period of 1988–2005, taking into consideration the average field, global water budget, and interannual variability and trends. The analysis considers satellite-based products (Japanese Ocean Flux Datasets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations [J-OFURO2], Hamburg Ocean–atmosphere Parameters from Satellite Data 3 [HOAPS3], Remote Sensing Systems [RSS], Global Precipitation Climatology Project [GPCP2], and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP]); reanalysis (Japanese 25-year reanalysis [JRA25], National Centers for Environmental Prediction [NCEP]/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis [NRA1], NCEP/Department of Energy reanalysis [NRA2], Climate Forecast System Reanalysis [CFSR]); and a hybrid product (Objectively Analyzed Air–Sea fluxes [OAFlux]). Recommendations are made for the developers of future freshwater flux products; these recommendations also aim to guide users to select products most suitable for their applications.For the global average field, evaporation and precipitation products of reanalysis are larger than satellite products in the tropical and subtropical regions. The large evaporation data values obtained by reanalysis are attributed to the low air specific humidity values and the differences between the bulk algorithms for the tropical and subtropical regions. Moreover, for the global water budget and the inter-annual variability and trends, the reanalysis precipitation product is largely dependent on its evaporation product. If we use reanalysis precipitation and satellite evaporation data, we obtain a negative value for the global ocean water budget. This study demonstrates the difficulty of using different evaporation and precipitation products to analyze the global hydrologic cycle.

Southern Ocean Circulation and Eddy Compensation in CMIP5 Models

Abstract Thirteen state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to evaluate the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation to surface wind stress and buoyancy changes. Understanding how these flows—fundamental players in the global distribution of heat, gases, and nutrients—respond to climate change is currently a widely debated issue among oceanographers. Here, the authors analyze the circulation responses of these coarse-resolution coupled models to surface fluxes. Under a future CMIP5 climate pathway where the equivalent atmospheric CO2 reaches 1370 ppm by 2100, the models robustly project reduced Southern Ocean density in the upper 2000 m accompanied by strengthened stratification. Despite an overall increase in overlying wind stress (~20%), the projected ACC transports lie within ±15% of their historical state, and no significant relationship with changes in the magnitude or position of the wind stress is identified. The models indicate that a weakening of ACC transport at the end of the twenty-first century is correlated with a strong increase in the surface heat and freshwater fluxes in the ACC region. In contrast, the surface heat gain across the ACC region and the wind-driven surface transports are significantly correlated with an increased upper and decreased lower Eulerian-mean meridional overturning circulation. The change in the eddy-induced overturning in both the depth and density spaces is quantified, and it is found that the CMIP5 models project partial eddy compensation of the upper and lower overturning cells.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and Historical Simulations

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850–2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%–40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%–60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from −0.1 to −1.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble–mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ~60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ~1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed.

Projection of subtropical gyre circulation and associated sea level changes in the Pacific based on CMIP3 climate models

For all of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRESs), sea level is projected to rise globally. However, sea level changes are not expected to be geographically uniform, with many regions departing significantly from the global average. Some of regional distributions of sea level changes can be explained by projected changes of ocean density and dynamics. In this study, with 11 available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 climate models under the SRES A1B, we identify an asymmetric feature (not recognised in previous studies) of projected subtropical gyre circulation changes and associated sea level changes between the North and South Pacific, through analysing projected changes of ocean dynamic height (with reference to 2,000 db), depth integrated steric height, Sverdrup stream function, surface wind stress and its curl. Poleward expansion of the subtropical gyres is projected in the upper ocean for both North and South Pacific. Contrastingly, the subtropical gyre circulation is projected to spin down by about 20 % in the subsurface North Pacific from the main thermocline around 400 m to at least 2,000 m, while the South Pacific subtropical gyre is projected to strengthen by about 25 % and expand poleward in the subsurface to at least 2,000 m. This asymmetrical distribution of the projected subtropical gyre circulation changes is directly related to differences in projected changes of temperature and salinity between the North and South Pacific, forced by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, and surface wind stress changes.

Southern Ocean warming and increased ice shelf basal melting in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries based on coupled ice-ocean finite-element modelling

We utilise a global finite-element sea ice–ocean model (FESOM), focused on the Antarctic marginal seas, to analyse projections of ice shelf basal melting in a warmer climate. Ice shelf–ocean interaction is described using a three-equation system with a diagnostic computation of temperature and salinity at the ice–ocean interface. A tetrahedral mesh with a minimumhorizontal resolution of 4 km and hybrid vertical coordinates is used. Ice shelf draft, cavity geometry, and global ocean bathymetry have been derived from the RTopo-1 data set. The model is forced with the atmospheric output from two climate models: (1) the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3) and (2) Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model. Results from experiments forced with their twentieth century output are used to evaluate the modelled present-day ocean state. Sea ice coverage is largely realistic in both simulations; modelled ice shelf basal melt rates compare well with observations in both cases, but are consistently smaller for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Projections for future ice shelf basal melting are computed using atmospheric output for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios E1 and A1B. In simulations forced with ECHAM5 data, trends in ice shelf basal melting are small. In contrast, decreasing convection along the Antarctic coast in HadCM3 scenarios leads to a decreasing salinity on the continental shelf and to intrusions of warm deep water of open ocean origin. In the case of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), this water reaches deep into the cavity, so that basal melting increases by a factor of 4 to 6 compared to the present value of about 90 Gt/year. By the middle of the twenty-second century, FRIS becomes the dominant contributor to total ice shelf basal mass loss in these simulations. Our results indicate that the surface freshwater fluxes on the continental shelves may be crucial for the future of especially the large cold water ice shelves in the Southern Ocean.

A numerical study of gyres, thermal fronts and seasonal circulation in austral semi-enclosed gulfs

This article analyses the results from a high resolution numerical model of the North Patagonian Gulfs (San Matías Gulf, SMG; Nuevo Gulf, NG; and San José Gulf, SJG), a region of the South Western Atlantic Shelf that has long been recognized for its high productivity and biodiversity. The aim of the study is to explore the physical processes that control the mean circulation and its seasonal variability with focus on the generation of recirculation features (gyres) and frontal structures. The numerical results showed that both tidal and wind forcing significantly contribute to delineate the frontal structures and the seasonal circulation in the North Patagonian Gulfs. The overall summer circulation pattern in SMG is dominated by two strong cyclonic subgyres in the northern and southern sectors while NG showed only one gulf-wide cyclonic gyre. The northern subgyre in SMG and the NG gyre are caused by the interaction of the tides and the evolving stratification driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes. A series of sensitivity experiments showed that the formation and intensity of a summer zonal front in SMG is controlled by the wind-driven advection of cold waters from a homogenized pool generated by intense tidal mixing in the inner continental shelf (east of Valdés Península). From April to August, when winter erodes the stratification, the northern SMG subgyre and the NG gyre spin down and gradually shrink in size. At this time of the year, the western SMG and NG are occupied by an anticyclonic gyre driven by intense westerlies. In contrast, the mean circulation in SJG is dominated year-round by a pair of strong counter-rotating eddies produced by tidal rectification.