Supply-side Changes Research Articles

The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe

A detailed assessment of a low energy demand, 1.5 ∘C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a bottom-up, country scale modelling perspective. The level of detail enables a clear representation of the potential of sufficiency measures. Results show that by 2050, 50% final energy demand reduction compared to 2019 is possible in Europe, with at least 40% of it attributable to various sufficiency measures across all sectors. This reduction enables a 77% renewable energy share in 2040 and 100% in 2050, with very limited need for imports from outside of Europe and no carbon sequestration technologies. Sufficiency enables increased fairness between countries through the convergence towards a more equitable share of energy service levels. Here we show, that without sufficiency measures, Europe misses the opportunity to transform energy demand leaving considerable pressure on supply side changes combined with unproven carbon removal technologies.

Exposure to Higher Rates of False News Erodes Media Trust and Fuels Overconfidence

ABSTRACT In two online experiments (N = 2,735), we investigated whether forced exposure to high proportions of false news could have deleterious effects by sowing confusion and fueling distrust in news. In a between-subjects design where U.S. participants rated the accuracy of true and false news, we manipulated the proportions of false news headlines participants were exposed to (17%, 33%, 50%, 66%, and 83%). We found that exposure to higher proportions of false news decreased trust in the news but did not affect participants’ perceived accuracy of news headlines. While higher proportions of false news had no effect on participants’ overall ability to discern between true and false news, they made participants more overconfident in their discernment ability. Therefore, exposure to false news may have deleterious effects not by increasing belief in falsehoods, but by fueling overconfidence and eroding trust in the news. Although we are only able to shed light on one causal pathway, from news environment to attitudes, this can help us better understand the effects of external or supply-side changes in news quality.

Exploring the impact of demand and supply-side interventions on energy decarbonization of freight transportation: a research based on G20 nations

Through quantitative modeling, the study established a dynamic supply and demand system from freight demand, renewable energy production, alternative new energy, renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions to assess the impact of demand-side and supply-side changes on energy decarbonization. The results indicate that adjusting the freight volumes of railway and aviation, renewable energy electricity supply, and the use of alternative new energy sources have varying degrees of impact on decarbonization in transportation. Through interventions on the demand side of freight volumes, CO2 emissions from transportation decrease to levels below those before the intervention-induced fluctuations, while consumption of renewable energy increases to levels above those before the adjustment.

Implications for control systems in highly volatile energy markets: Using a high purity distillation electrification case study

The transition to increasingly renewable electricity grids and the electrification of industrial processes are two recent developments promising to be potential solutions towards net zero in industrial production processes. Generally, grid electricity is perceived as a stable and reliable resource that can be accessed on demand. However, that is not always the case for large industrial users (100 MW+), and a key future challenge that must be overcome is the inherent uncertainty of the electricity supply by renewable sources, as well as in pricing. In methanol production, the concept of using electrolysis and CO2 capture is being explored as a way of replacing reforming to produce syngas for “green” methanol production. With the omission of the reforming process which supplies energy as steam for the process, there is now a need to electrify the affected downstream unit operations. Distillation is a key unit operation in chemical operations that consumes large amounts of energy for reboiler duty and holds the key to making on-specification AA-grade methanol, a precursor chemical. With the volatility of the electricity market, hence supply, these columns must be able to withstand a sudden large reboiler duty drop. This paper developed a novel process operations and control principle to allow for the flexible operation of a high-purity methanol distillation column in volatile energy markets. At its core is the concept of using a distillation column as a “process battery”. Results obtained from a validated process simulation show that the novel “process battery” operations principle can withstand a supply-side change as great as 75% within a time span of 5 min without breaking complex quality and performance specifications of the column. This control philosophy is a major departure from the traditional process control and operating regimes that are focused on maintaining steady operations under all conditions.

Characterizing prescription opioid, heroin, and fentanyl initiation trajectories: A qualitative study

We understand the current crisis of overdose deaths to be driven by widespread opioid use, characterized by distinct ‘waves’ of drug use. The first wave was driven by prescription opioids, the second by heroin, and the third by illicit, non-pharmaceutical fentanyl and fentanyl analogues (henceforth, fentanyl). The purpose of this study is to describe opioid initiation within each of the three waves from the perspective of people who use illicit opioids, with a focus on emerging pathways into fentanyl use. The authors recruited sixty people reporting past-30-day illicit opioid use in Dayton, Ohio. Participants completed a brief survey and a semi-structured in-depth qualitative interview, conducted from March to November 2020 with a total of 13 in-person and 47 virtual interviews. The qualitative interviews were transcribed in their entirety and analyzed thematically using NVivo 12. We noted supply-side changes as influencing trajectories in all three waves. However, we also noted differences in the experiences of prescription opioid and heroin initiation, with these trajectories influenced by pharmacological effects, pain management, curiosity, intergenerational use, pricing, and peers. In comparison, most participants were unaware that they were initiating fentanyl, and many reported overdosing with their first use of fentanyl. We identified a trajectory into fentanyl with limited to no prior heroin use among a few participants. The increased risk of overdose with initiation into fentanyl use further emphasizes the need for an expansion of naloxone distribution and the implementation of more comprehensive measures, such as overdose prevention centers, drug testing, and a safer supply. Further research on the dynamics of the ongoing overdose death crisis in the era of fentanyl and the 4th wave of the overdose crisis is critical in developing responsive prevention and intervention strategies.

Resilience in childhood vaccination: analysing delivery system responses to shocks in Lebanon

IntroductionDespite rapidly growing academic and policy interest in health system resilience, the empirical literature on this topic remains small and focused on macrolevel effects arising from single shocks. To better...

Sports Utility Vehicles: A Public Health Model of Their Climate and Air Pollution Impacts in the United Kingdom.

The emission benefits of shifting towards battery electric vehicles have so far been hampered by a trend towards sports utility vehicles (SUVs). This study assesses the current and future emissions from SUVs and their potential impact on public health and climate targets. We modelled five scenarios of varying SUV sales and electrification rates, and projected associated carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the relationship between vehicle characteristics and emissions. Cumulative CO2 emissions were valued using the social cost of carbon approach. Life table analyses were used to project and value life years saved from NOx emission reductions. Larger SUVs were disproportionately high emitters of CO2 and NOx. Replacing these with small SUVs achieved significant benefits, saving 702 MtCO2e by 2050 and 1.8 million life years from NO2 reductions. The largest benefits were achieved when combined with electrification, saving 1181 MtCO2e and gaining 3.7 million life years, with a societal value in the range of GBP 10-100s billion(s). Downsizing SUVs could be associated with major public health benefits from reduced CO2 and NOx emissions, in addition to the benefits of electrification. This could be achieved by demand-side mass-based vehicle taxation and supply-side changes to regulations, by tying emission limits to a vehicle's footprint rather than its mass.

Changes in greenhouse gas emissions from food supply in the United Kingdom

Food systems contribute 23–42% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing food system emissions is an essential component of climate change mitigation, and a system-wide approach, including production, processing, trade and demand-side transformations, will be needed. Long-term analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of food supply is crucial for informing this transformation, and understanding the processes contributing to existing trends can reveal opportunities for future mitigation strategies. To address these needs we used data on food supply, trade and emission intensity to quantify changes in GHG emissions between 1986 and 2017 resulting from food supply in the United Kingdom (UK). Uniquely, the relative contributions of supply-side and demand-side changes to historical trends in food emissions were assessed, and the gap between current UK food consumption and EAT-Lancet recommended diets was used to estimate the additional GHG emission reductions that could be achieved by shifting to the Planetary Health Diet (PHD). It was estimated that in the UK, per-capita GHG emissions from food fell by 32% (from 4.6 tCO2eq/capita to 3.1 tCO2eq/capita) between 1986 and 2017. Of this 32% reduction, 21% was due to supply-side changes (a fall in emission intensity per unit of production due to increased efficiency of farming practices), 10% was due to demand-side changes (including dietary change and waste reduction), and 2% was due to changing trade patterns. Relative to the PHD, however, the average UK citizen still greatly over-consumes beef, lamb and pork, tubers and starchy vegetables and dairy products, and under-consumes vegetables, nuts, and legumes. It was estimated that by adopting the PHD, UK per capita food emissions could be reduced by a further 42% to 1.8 tCO2eq/capita. These results expose the historic contributions of both supply- and demand-side changes to reductions in GHG emissions from food, and highlight the underutilised potential of dietary change in contributing to mitigation of GHG emissions from food.

Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development.

The opioid crisis is a major public health challenge in the United States, killing about 70,000 people in 2020 alone. Long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects on drug-use behavior create dynamic complexity, complicating policy decision-making. In 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine called for a quantitative systems model to help understand and address this complexity and guide policy decisions. Here, we present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), a dynamic simulation model developed in response to that charge. SOURCE tracks the US population aged ≥12 y through the stages of prescription and illicit opioid (e.g., heroin, illicit fentanyl) misuse and use disorder, addiction treatment, remission, and overdose death. Using data spanning from 1999 to 2020, we highlight how risks of drug use initiation and overdose have evolved in response to essential endogenous feedback mechanisms, including: 1) social influence on drug use initiation and escalation among people who use opioids; 2) risk perception and response based on overdose mortality, influencing potential new initiates; and 3) capacity limits on treatment engagement; as well as other drivers, such as 4) supply-side changes in prescription opioid and heroin availability; and 5) the competing influences of illicit fentanyl and overdose death prevention efforts. Our estimates yield a more nuanced understanding of the historical trajectory of the crisis, providing a basis for projecting future scenarios and informing policy planning.

Sustainability Challenge of Eastern Europe—Historical Legacy, Belt and Road Initiative, Population Aging and Migration

The historical legacy of Eastern European and the Balkans’ health systems was mutually interdependent and shaped by local socioeconomic circumstances. Three distinctive systems of risk sharing and health financing developed since the late XIX century were the Bismarck, Beveridge, and Semashko systems. Modern day healthcare systems in these countries are challenged by population aging, accelerated innovation in medical technology, growing purchasing power and rising demand for healthcare services. Supply-side changes contribute to demand-side efficiency bottlenecks in financing, driving up the costs of the already expensive medical care. All of the nations have a large share of citizens experiencing difficulty with affordability and access to medical care, particularly in rural and remote areas. Network of health technology assessment agencies have mushroomed over the past three decades. Principles of health economics theory and cost-effective resource allocation are slowly gaining ground in governing authorities’ mindset and decision-making processes. For many years to come, pharmaceuticals and medical services will remain dependent on out-of-pocket spending. Currently, accelerating and spreading 4.0 Industrial Revolution, together with the Belt and Road Initiative, are likely to substantially impact the further economic development of this vast region. Post-pandemic “green” recovery strategies adopted by many of the Eastern European governments shall also make this transition toward sustainable development more difficult and challenging, given the large dependency of all these economies on traditional carbon fuels.

European outbound tourism expansion on the islands of Cape Verde

The main objective of this article is to shed light on the determinants of international tourism demand expansion in Cape Verde. The research involves cointegration analysis to test the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables included in tourism demand using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. The results showed high income elasticity and price inelastic demand. Moreover, turmoil in traditional tourist destinations in non-European Mediterranean basin countries, coupled with the investments of tour operators and hotel groups who are key players in the European source markets, significantly and positively affected international tourism demand. Supply side changes associated with foreign investment were necessary to increase the number of tourists. Finally, lower level of income in European countries following the financial crisis of 2008 might have favored the shift of European tourists from more expensive destinations to Cape Verde. The concentration of tourism, economic growth, jobs creation, and population growth on two islands may have affected island communities, resources, and other aspects of inter- and intraisland relationships.

Exploring systemic factors creating uncertainty in complex engineer-to-order supply chains: Case studies from Norwegian shipbuilding first tier suppliers

While it is recognised that there are varying uncertainty characteristics between industry sectors, there is little uncertainty research directly related to engineer-to-order (ETO) systems. A novel method is developed to identify the factors contributing to uncertainty in shipbuilding first-tier suppliers that inhibit the effective and efficient delivery of ETO products. The empirical data set comes from case-specific workshops involving cross-disciplinary staff from engineering, production, purchasing, planning and sales. The protocol included presentations by the researchers and the company, tours of the shopfloor and interactive sessions. The latter used ‘brown-paper’ exercises to map customer penetration-point locations, identify where uncertainties occurred and evaluate their impact-likelihood. The customer penetration-point mapping identified two ETO types; redesign-to-order (RTO) and innovate-to-order (ITO). The major challenges faced by ITO systems are caused through failures in (a) properly understanding customer requirements and translating those to product specification, (b) providing capacity and capability in engineering design teams at both first- and second-tier suppliers, (c) managing interfaces from customer through to second-tier suppliers. Engineering processes in RTO systems have poor customer configuration protocols leading to complex, overengineered products without pre-existing bill of materials. Engineering and production processes at both first- and second-tier RTO suppliers have extended lead-times with poor capacity availability. A change programme is suggested to reduce uncertainty requiring primary consideration of process and control aspects before addressing demand-side and then supply-side changes. The findings are evaluated by independent interviews indicating that the method and tools adopted have validity, and that the findings are commensurate with wider industry expectations.

Calorie Labeling and Product Reformulation: A Longitudinal Analysis of Supermarket-Prepared Foods

The 2010 Affordable Care Act required chain retail food establishments, including supermarkets, to post calorie information for prepared (i.e., ready to eat) foods. Implementation of calorie labeling could spur companies to reduce the calorie content of prepared foods, but few studies have explored this. This study evaluates the changes in the calorie content of prepared foods at 2 large U.S. supermarket chains after they implemented calorie labels in April 2017. The chains (≈1,200 stores) provided data on the calorie content and labeling status of all items sold between July 2015 and January 2019. In 2021, analyses used a difference-in-differences approach to examine the changes in the calorie content of prepared bakery, entree, and deli items introduced before calorie labeling to those introduced after the labeling compared with changes in similar foods not subject to the new labeling requirement. Primary analyses examined continuously available items; exploratory analyses examined items newly introduced to the marketplace. Relative to changes in comparison foods not subject to the labeling requirement, continuously available prepared bakery items decreased by 7.7 calories per item after calorie labels were implemented (95% CI= -12.9, -2.5, p=0.004, ≈0.5% reduction). In exploratory analyses, prepared bakery items introduced after calorie labeling contained 440 fewer calories per item than those introduced before calorie labeling (95% CI= -773.9, -106.1, p=0.01, ≈27% reduction), driven by reductions in product size. No changes were observed in the calorie content of continuously available or newly introduced prepared entrees or deli items. Implementing calorie labels could encourage product reformulation among some types of prepared supermarket foods. These supply-side changes could lead to reductions in caloric intake.

The Evolution of Supply and Demand in Markets for Generic Drugs.

The image of generic drugs as a commodity sold in competitive markets is an oversimplification, as evidenced by increasing accounts of price spikes, sustained high price-cost margins, and market disruptions. The mismatch between the canonical economic model of generic drug markets and reality motivated our empirical project. To explore recent changes in those factors impacting the supply and demand for generic drugs, we studied, from a variety of sources, the data on price, competition, supply disruptions and recalls, changes to the supply chain, and buy-side concentration. We examined quarterly data through 2018 for a cohort of 77 molecules that lost patent protection during the so-called patent cliff between 2010 and 2013. On the supply side, we found that for large-market oral solids, generic entry and price declines were consistent with past studies showing a significant number of market entrants and substantial reductions in the average price of a molecule. In smaller markets for oral solids and injectable products, we observed fewer entrants, higher rates of exit, smaller price reductions, and, in some cases, considerable price instability. The number of reported shortages increased across all generic market types over time, with the rate of shortage increases especially pronounced in markets for injectable products. The number of product recalls also rose over our study period. Although we did not estimate causal effects, we did find several changes in the market environment for generic drugs that may contribute to these phenomena. The demand side for generics has become more concentrated. Supply chains rely more on producers outside the United States (particularly from China and India). Contracting practices have undergone changes that may inhibit competition in product supply. FDA regulatory scruitiny has increased. Competition in generic drug markets varies widely by market size and product form. Recent changes in demand-side market structure imply more downward pressure on prices stemming from buy-side concentration. The FDA's greater regulatory oversight puts upward pressure on costs, and the lengthening of the supply chain increases production uncertainty for producers. Demand and supply-side changes point to further market instabilities across all generic markets due to producers' changing economic position.

The impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. child care market: Evidence from stay-at-home orders

Stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) were implemented in most U.S. states to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. This paper quantifies the impact of these containment policies on a measure of the supply of child care. The supply of such services may be particularly vulnerable to a SAHO-type policy shock, given that many providers are liquidity-constrained. Using plausibly exogenous variation from the staggered adoption of SAHOs across states, we find that online job postings for early care and education teachers declined by 16% after enactment. This effect is driven exclusively by private-sector services. Indeed, hiring by public programs like Head Start and pre-kindergarten has not been influenced by SAHOs. We also find that ECE job postings increased dramatically after SAHOs were lifted, although the number of such postings remains 4% lower than that during the pre-pandemic period. There is little evidence that child care search behavior among households was altered by SAHOs. Because forced supply-side changes appear to be at play, our results suggest that households may not be well-equipped to insure against the rapid transition to the production of child care. We discuss the implications of these results for child development and parental employment decisions.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. Child Care Market: Evidence from Stay-at-Home Orders

Stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) were implemented in most U.S. states to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. This paper quantifies the impact of these containment policies on a measure of the supply of child care. The supply of such services may be particularly vulnerable to a SAHO-type policy shock, given that many providers are liquidity-constrained. Using plausibly exogenous variation from the staggered adoption of SAHOs across states, we find that online job postings for early care and education teachers declined by 16% after enactment. This effect is driven exclusively by private-sector services. Indeed, hiring by public programs like Head Start and pre-kindergarten has not been influenced by SAHOs. We also find that ECE job postings increased dramatically after SAHOs were lifted, although the number of such postings remains 4% lower than that during the pre-pandemic period. There is little evidence that child care search behavior among households was altered by SAHOs. Because forced supply-side changes appear to be at play, our results suggest that households may not be well-equipped to insure against the rapid transition to the production of child care. We discuss the implications of these results for child development and parental employment decisions.

The Impact of Covid-19 on the U.S. Child Care Market: Evidence from Stay-at-Home Orders

Stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) have been implemented in most U.S. states to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. This paper quantifies the short-run impact of these containment policies on the supply of and demand for child care. The child care market may be particularly vulnerable to a SAHO-type policy shock, given that many providers are liquidity-constrained. Using plausibly exogenous variation from the staggered adoption of SAHOs across states, we find that online job postings for early care and education teachers declined by 13% after enactment. This effect is driven exclusively by private-sector services.Indeed, hiring by public programs like Head Start and pre-kindergarten has not been influenced by SAHOs. In addition, we find little evidence that child care search behavior among households has been altered. Because forced supply-side changes appear to be at play, our results suggest that households may not be well-equipped to insure against the rapid transition to the production of child care. We discuss the implications of these results for child development and parental employment decisions.

Explaining job polarisation in Spain from a task perspective

This paper presents new evidence on the evolution of job polarisation in Spain between 1994 and 2014. After showing the U-shaped relationship between employment share growth and job’s percentile in the wage distribution, I use the task approach to investigate the main determinants behind job polarisation. Using the European Working Condition Survey I analyse in detail the task content of the jobs which display the most significant employment changes. I show that changes in employment shares are negatively related to the initial level of routine. I then explore the impact of computerisation on routine task inputs and I find that the routine measure is negatively related to computerisation. Finally, by using information on past jobs, I provide evidence on the displacement of middle-paid workers. Results suggest that they did not predominantly relocate their labour supply to bottom-paid occupations: while non-graduate middle workers move towards bottom occupations, graduate middle employees shift towards top occupations. This fact suggests that supply-side changes are important factors in explaining the expansion at the lower and upper tail of the employment distribution.

Supply-side effects from public insurance expansions: Evidence from physician labor markets.

Medicaid and the Child Health Insurance Programs (CHIP) are key sources of coverage for U.S. children. Established in 1997, CHIP allocated $40 billion of federal funds across the first 10years but continued support required reauthorization. After 2 failed attempts in Congress, CHIP was finally reauthorized and significantly expanded in 2009. Although much is known about the demand-side policy effects, much less is understood about the policy's impact on providers. In this paper, we leverage a unique physician dataset to examine if and how pediatricians responded to the expansion of the public insurance program. We find that newly trained pediatricians are 8 percentage points more likely to subspecialize and as much as 17 percentage points more likely to enter private practice after the law passed. There is also suggestive evidence of greater private practice growth in more rural locations. The sharp supply-side changes that we observe indicate that expanding public insurance can have important spillover effects on provider training and practice choices.

Causes and Consequences of Increasing Herbicide Use in Mali

This paper examines the origins and impact of rapid recent growth of herbicide use in Mali. Primary data come from interviews with herbicide importers and distributors and from a 2014/2015 survey of farm households in Mali’s Sudanian Savanna zone. Results suggest that a series of major supply-side changes are driving growth in Mali’s herbicide markets, most conspicuously a proliferation in the number of sellers and herbicide brands marketed, a shift to low-cost suppliers in China and India, and consequently falling herbicide prices. At the farm level, herbicides cost on average 50 per cent less than hiring weeding labor. Despite low econometric estimates of damage abatement, herbicide adoption rates reach 25 per cent in remote rural zones and 75 per cent in more accessible rural areas. Key factors affecting adoption include spatial variation in herbicide prices and rural wage rates. At current levels, herbicide use reduces peak season rural labor demand by roughly 14 per cent.