Supply Shocks Research Articles

Analysis of the heterogeinety impact of oil prices shocks on exchange rates in oil exporting countries: evidence of quantiles-on -quantiles approach

The objective of this study is to investigate the heterogeneous dynamic between exchange rate returns and oil prices in oil exporting countries. Precisely, the researchers used the exchange rates returns of both low incomes, emerging and developed majors oil exporting countries, and decomposed oil price shocks to study the heterogeneity of the intrinsic dynamic between the two variables in these countries, using the quantile-on-quantile analysis. The findings revealed that, although the dynamic between oil prices shocks and exchange rates returns is largely negative in these countries, there are important variability of the shocks impacts across the quantile distribution of both exchange rates returns and the different oil price shocks. More precisely , the study reavealed the heterogeneity of the different oil shocks impacts (oil aggregate demand , oil supply and oil specific demand shocks) on the exchange rates return of a given country , with the shape of the QQR graphs being different according to the source of shock and the magnitude of oil demand and oil specific demand shocks being more significant than that of oil supply shocks in many of the cases. In the same way , the analysis results also indicate that the dynamic between oil price shocks and exchange rate is heterogenous across the countries , with the impact of the shocks being more significant in developing countries than it is in developed countries . As well the behavior of the exchange rates returns at extreme values is different from one country to another. From this insight, the researcher recommends an economy diversification mainly for oil developing countries, and country-specific economy policies to mitigate the incidence of oil shocks, as the impact differs from one country to another.. Keywords: Exchange Rates, Oil Prices, Quantile-on-Quantile, Oil Exporting Countries.

The asymmetric and dynamic effects of oil price shocks and geopolitical risks on carbon prices in China

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the asymmetric and dynamic effects of oil price shocks and geopolitical risks (GPR) on carbon prices in China. We address this issue using a quantile framework, incorporating the quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) approach, rolling window QARDL and the quantile Granger causality test. Empirical findings indicate that in the long term, oil risk and supply shocks positively impact carbon prices in bullish markets, while oil demand shocks affect normal and bearish markets. GPR significantly drives carbon prices across all quantiles, except the 0.8 quantile, with the strongest effect observed in extremely bullish markets. In the short term, oil shocks and GPR have a similar but stronger influence. Additionally, both the short- and long-term effects of oil price shocks and GPR vary over time. The ‘camel-hump’ shape of the causality further validates the asymmetric causal effects of oil price shocks and GPR on carbon prices. These findings provide valuable insights for portfolio managers and policymakers, emphasizing the importance of adopting a quantile-based approach to risk management, rather than focusing solely on average effects.

The Transitional Dynamics of Debt: Productivity Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

We propose a two-sector endogenous growth model with both public and private production. The government sector produces an output that enters both the utility function and the production function, financed by both taxes and borrowing, such that public expenditure and public finance are independently determined. We impose a homogeneous stylized labour productivity supply shock to country specific simulations, coinciding with hypothetical year 2020, and consider their respective heterogeneous fiscal responses. The simulations depict the transitional dynamics in both developed and less developed economies to the simultaneous labour and policy shocks. Using advanced software applications, explicitly suited to model continuous time mathematics, we simulate closed form solutions to continuous time general equilibria that are defined by a three-dimensional modified golden rule across consumption, capital and debt. The model represents a baseline for analysis of the short to medium term impacts of shocks, both exogenous or policy induced, within a richly defined dynamic general equilibrium. Our methodology extends the ability to analyze transitional dynamics in multidimensional models where hitherto analysis has been confined to the long run equilibria.

Tail risk transmission between decomposed oil shocks and green finance markets: evidence from an EVT–TVP–VAR approach

ABSTRACT This paper provides a novel framework based on extreme value theory, i.e. the autoregressive conditional Fréchet–time-varying parameters–vector autoregression (AcF–TVP–VAR) framework, to explore the tail risk spillovers between decomposed oil shocks (supply, demand, and risk shocks) and green finance markets. The empirical results reveal that there are significant time-varying tail risk spillovers between the two markets, with spillovers intensifying during extreme events. Additionally, throughout the sample period, supply shock is found to be a net transmitter of tail risk, while clean energy market is a net receiver. Notably, the safe haven properties of green bond market are captured, indicating it can serve as a diversified investment option. The findings are important for financial investors and policymakers.

Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input–output model. Our results show that potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management, and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop.

Merchants of Death: The Effect of Credit Supply Shocks on Hospital Outcomes

This study examines the link between credit supply and hospital health outcomes. We use bank stress tests as exogenous shocks to credit access for hospitals that have lending relationships with tested banks. We find that affected hospitals shift their operations to increase resource utilization following a negative credit shock but reduce the quality of their care to patients across a variety of measures, including a significant increase in risk-adjusted readmission and mortality rates. The results indicate that access to credit can affect the quality of health care hospitals deliver, pointing to important spillover effects of credit market frictions on health outcomes. (JEL G21, G32, I11, I18)

Is the Influence of Oil Shocks on Economic Policy Uncertainty Fading?

Anecdotal evidence indicates that the influence of crude oil shocks on US economic performance and, by extension, economic policy uncertainty is in decline. While existing studies present mixed evidence on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and structural oil shocks, they fail to assess any time variation in this relationship. We examine the temporal nature of the influence of three structural oil shocks, oil supply shocks, global aggregate demand shocks, and shocks due to oil market-specific demand, on categorical economic policy uncertainty indexes from 1986 to 2023. We find that out of three oil shocks, only oil market-specific demand shocks negatively and significantly affect the US policy uncertainty over high-uncertainty regimes, with monetary policy uncertainty being the most influenced. At the same time, the impact of the other two shocks, oil supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks on EPU, is found to be fading. The oil shocks-EPU relationship exhibits regime dependencies with higher impact during the high volatile regime. Also, the role of partisan conflict in influencing the oil shocks-EPU relationship is established specifically in EPU subcategories relating to government expenditures. Hence, this paper uncovers interesting dynamics of the oil shocks-EPU relationship, such as regime dependencies, time-varying relationship, the importance of partisan conflict, and the fading influence of global oil supply shocks and oil shocks due to aggregate demand in the global economy.

Community-based economic romance and integration: assessing the feasibility of a currency union in South Asia

Purpose This purpose of this study aims to critically evaluate the feasibility of establishing a single currency area within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) by examining the economic integration of its member states. The analysis focuses on the extent to which the region meets the criteria of the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, particularly in terms of business cycle synchronization, labor mobility and capital flows. Design/methodology/approach Using a vector autoregression (VAR) model within the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework, this research investigates the symmetry of supply and demand shocks across SAARC economies. The study analyzes the synchronization of business cycles and the mobility of labor and capital to determine the readiness of SAARC for a unified currency. Findings The results indicate significant asymmetries in business cycles among SAARC countries, with substantial disparities in economic responses to shocks. These findings suggest that the region lacks the necessary economic synchronization required for a successful single currency area. Limited labor and capital mobility further complicate the potential for economic integration within SAARC. Research limitations/implications The study is constrained by data inconsistencies and the limited range of economic indicators available for SAARC countries. Future research should expand the analysis to include a broader set of socioeconomic factors and more comprehensive data sets to better assess the region’s potential for monetary integration. Practical implications The study highlights the challenges of forming a currency union in South Asia due to economic disparities and limited mobility. However, gradual steps toward deeper regional integration, improved financial infrastructure and enhanced cross-border collaboration could foster long-term economic stability, growth and social cohesion in the SAARC region. Social implications The research highlights the potential social benefits of enhanced economic integration, such as increased community resilience and social cohesion, while also warning of the risks associated with premature monetary union in a region with significant economic disparities. Originality/value This study provides a detailed analysis linking the theoretical framework of the OCA to the practical realities of economic integration in South Asia. By focusing on the specific economic conditions of SAARC member states, the research offers valuable insights for policymakers considering regional monetary integration.

Distinct clubs or one big party? Global value chain convergence: Supply concentration and susceptibility to supply shocks

Research background: Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, raise important questions about the stability of supply chains and their resilience to supply shocks. Purpose of the article: This paper investigates convergence clubs in global value chains, focusing on supply concentration measured with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. Methods: Using country-sector pairs from the OECD’s ICIO database, we employed the Phillips-Sul (2007) algorithm with the Schnurbus-Haupt-Meier (2017) augmentation to distinguish convergence clubs in the global trade network. Findings & value added: Our main policy-related finding is that there are two main convergence clubs — one covering roughly 80% of all units and the other one close to 20% (the number of divergent sectors is practically negligible). The dominant club is characterised by high and growing concentration, which poses a risk to the trade network, as, over time, it makes trading partners more susceptible to supply-side shocks. Since the global economy has proven to be surprisingly homogenous in terms of concentration patterns, it seems justified that growing concentration could be considered a systemic feature for future theoretical international trade models. Our main methodological finding is that the WIOD database, which is still used as a standard for such analyses, may be misleading due to its limitations. While the results based on the ICIO and WIOD databases do not align, ICIO seems to be superior in terms of coverage.

Credit Supply or Demand? The Changing Role of Structural Market Forces in Bank Lending*

ABSTRACT Recent crises have shown that disruptions in credit markets can have serious macroeconomic consequences. This paper aims to assess the structural drivers of the bank lending market to non-financial corporations using the structural VAR methodology in a small, open, and bank-based euro area economy – Slovakia. The results show that credit demand shocks (loans demanded by firms) are at least as important as credit supply shocks (loans supplied by banks) in the lending market, and that this importance changes over the cycle. These findings have important policy implications, as responding to these shocks may require different policy measures.

Dynamics of inflation in emerging markets: Is it local or global?

This paper investigates inflation dynamics in emerging markets. We apply a multi-country model (GVAR) and a time-varying Granger causality test (TVGC) to examine the drivers of inflation in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Türkiye over the period 1980Q1-2022Q4. The aim is to ascertain whether these drivers are locally or globally determined and vary over time. The GVAR model results indicate that local and global factors drive domestic inflation, collectively contributing to inflationary pressures in emerging countries. The TVGC results, on the other hand, provide strong evidence of the causality from local and global factors to domestic inflation. Local factors appear to have a stronger influence than global ones, suggesting that local dynamics play a more significant role in explaining inflation in these countries. Consequently, globalization and economic/trade integration, seen as tools to suppress inflation, can turn into factors that cause inflation in the face of a supply shock such as the one caused by the pandemic.

Examining the behaviour of inflation to supply and demand shocks using an MS-VAR model

This paper examines how inflation reacts depending on whether a supply (cost) or demand (markup) shock occurs. Despite their importance, the behaviour of markups remains an open empirical question in the literature. We use data for the US over the 1948q1-2019q3 period, decompose the price index to markups and costs, and employ a small-scale DSGE model to extract identifying size conditions for the coefficient estimates. These are then used in a Markov-switching VAR (MS-VAR) with fixed transition probabilities using an updating step. The empirical exercise shows that three different regimes exist (expansionary, contractionary, supply shock), while the Generalized Impulse Response Functions document that markups appear to be countercyclical and marginal costs are procyclical across all regimes. As such, inflation's reaction to a shock can be less volatile than expected depending on the regime. In addition, larger shocks have a lower and less persistent effect on inflation, because they are more easily identifiable, allowing corrective action to be taken.

Energy shocks as Keynesian supply shocks: Implications for fiscal policy

This paper analyses the economic impact of and the optimal policy response to energy supply shocks in a flexible price model with heterogeneous households. We introduce energy as a consumption good on the demand side and as an input to production on the supply side. A distinguishing feature is that, in line with empirical evidence, we allow households’ energy demand to be non-homothetic. The model provides three main insights. First, (negative) energy supply shocks act as a (negative) demand shock, or Keynesian supply shock, when two conditions are met: On the demand side household income inequality needs to be large, while on the supply side, the price elasticity of consumption goods needs to be high. Second, the social planner can implement the first-best allocation by subsidising firms and poor households while taxing rich households. Energy shocks then act as standard supply shocks. Last, issuing public debt can help implement the first best allocation when energy shocks are large and/or the economy’s overall energy intensity is low.

How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices?: Evidence from U.S. Cities

AbstractWe examine the link between house and consumer prices in 41 U.S. cities using retail price data for various consumer goods. We find that shifts in house prices precede consumer price changes, with varying impacts depending on location and product categories. The nature of housing market shocks matters too; housing supply shocks move consumer prices temporarily through the cost‐push dynamics, while housing demand shocks have enduring effects via wealth and collateral channels. Our findings imply that housing market fluctuations may have greater impacts on local cost of living and consumer welfare than their representation in the Consumer Price Index.

Impact of crude oil price innovations on global stock market volatility: Evidence across time and space

This study investigates the impact of crude oil price innovations on global stock market volatility through a ripple-spreading network model, incorporating four dimensions of crude oil price changes: realized volatility, implied volatility, variance risk premium, and realized skewness volatility. Additionally, we assess the effects of three types of crude oil shocks—oil-specific, aggregate demand, and oil supply shocks. The results indicate that while all four dimensions exhibit similar temporal diffusion patterns, their spatial impacts differ. Global stock markets demonstrate heightened sensitivity to implied volatility and variance risk premium, followed by realized volatility and, lastly, realized skewness volatility. Moreover, we find that realized volatility spreads through multiple transmission pathways, albeit at a slower pace compared to implied volatility and the variance risk premium. Among the crude oil shocks, oil-specific shock induces the most rapid volatility transmission across global markets, with aggregate demand shock following and oil supply shock exerting the smallest influence.

Do oil market shocks affect financial distress? Evidence from firm-level global data

This study investigates the impact of three oil price shocks on financial distress of global firms using a dataset of 8130 firms across 48 countries from 2002 to 2022. It also analyses the role of energy diversification in the relationship between oil shocks and firm distress. The findings reveal that aggregate demand and specific demand shocks increase firm distress risk, while supply shocks reduce it. Furthermore, the results suggest that energy diversification mitigates the impact of specific demand shocks on firm distress. The study also implements several robustness checks, and the results remain consistent. Potential policy implications are also discussed.

Asymmetric impact of oil structural shocks on non-ferrous metals supply chains: A groundbreaking multidimensional quantile-on-quantile regression

This paper examines the predictability of various oil price shocks on the returns of non-ferrous metals from the supply and demand sides in the US, UK, and China under different market conditions. An innovative multidimensional quantile-on-quantile (MD-QQ) regression approach is proposed to address this topic, which extends traditional univariate QQ regression to multivariate cases, addressing the limitation of omitted variables in the benchmark QQ method. The findings reveal that the forecasting of oil supply shocks on the non-ferrous metal supply chain is generally insignificant. Nevertheless, oil supply shocks will transmit negative (positive) actions when the non-ferrous metal supply-side (demand-side) is in a bear (bull) market. The implication of oil demand shocks on the non-ferrous metal supply chain is generally positive, while the supply-side market of Chinese non-ferrous metals displays mutability in response to oil demand shocks under certain extreme market conditions. Conversely, oil risk shocks have a negative impact across the entire non-ferrous metal supply chain. Their effects are more pronounced when the non-ferrous metal demand market is bearish, exhibiting asymmetric characteristics. Oil demand shocks and risk shocks have a stronger impact on non-ferrous metal supply chains in the US and UK than in China. Our research not only confirms the estimation bias caused by missing variables in traditional baseline models but also provides new insights into the connection between the non-ferrous metals and oil markets by adopting the fresh method.

The Impact of Restrictive Macroprudential Policies through Borrower-Targeted Instruments on Income Inequality: Evidence from a Bayesian Approach

This study used the panel data from 15 emerging markets to examine the impact of restrictive macroprudential policies on income inequality from 2000–2019 using Bayesian panel vector autoregression and Bayesian panel dynamics generalised method of moments models. The chosen models are suitable for addressing multiple entity dynamics, accommodating a wide range of variables, handling dense parameterisation, and optimising formativeness and heterogeneous individual-specific factors. The empirical analysis utilised various macroprudential policy proxies and income inequality measures. The results show that when the central banks tighten systems using macroprudential policy instruments to sticker debt-to-income and financial instruments for lower-income borrowers (the bottom 40% of the income distribution), they promote income inequality in these countries while reducing income inequality for high-income borrowers (the high 1 percent of the income distribution). The impact of loan-to-value ratios was found to be insignificant in these countries. Fiscal policy through government expenditure and economic development reduces income inequality, while money supply and oil-price shocks exacerbate it. The study suggests implementing a progressive debt-to-income (DTI) ratio system in emerging markets to address income inequality among lower-income borrowers. This would adjust DTI thresholds based on income brackets, allowing lenient credit access for lower-income borrowers while maintaining stricter limits for higher-income borrowers. This would improve financial stability and reduce income disparities. Additionally, targeted financial literacy programs and a petroleum-linked basic income program could be implemented to distribute oil revenue to lower-income households. A monetary supply stabilisation fund could also be established to maintain financial stability and prevent excessive inflation.

G20 systemic risk: Are structural oil price shocks driving factors?

Investigating systemic risk and its driving factors has always been a hot topic. Based on this, we combine the tail-event driven network (TENET) and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to study characteristics of G20 systemic risk and the impact of structural oil price shocks on it. The results of TENET model are as follows: From a systemic perspective, G20 systemic risk is high and exhibits significant time-varying characteristics. It can reflect periods of economic stress. From a group perspective, systemic risk in developing countries is often higher than developed countries and is more susceptible to extreme events. The systemic risk in developing countries mainly transmits and receives within the group. The systemic risk in developed countries is more balanced in its sources and mainly releases risk to developing countries. From an individual perspective, the risk spillover in G20 stock markets shows significant regional characteristics. Additionally, Argentina is most sensitive to G20 systemic risk, while India exhibits the strongest risk spillover to other G20 members. The results of SVAR model are as follows: Oil price shocks are important factors in explaining changes in G20 systemic risk, with the most significant being specific demand shock. The supply shock exacerbates systemic risk. The aggregate demand shock increases systemic risk in the short term but reduce it in the long term. The specific demand shock significantly reduces systemic risk. Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty and economic globalization, these findings are of great significance for accurately identifying key points in regulatory frameworks and mitigating systemic risk.

Attractiveness of clean energy stocks in Europe

The Ukrainian conflict has put in evidence the need to understand if oil and gas shocks increase the attractiveness of clean energy investments in Europe. If that is the case, clean energy investments are both the solution to the end of the month problem in Europe and to the end of the world problem due to climate change. Using monthly data for the period 2008–2021, we pinpoint supply and demand shocks in the oil and gas markets affecting Europe and investigate their effects on clean energy stock returns using a structural VAR model. We complete the analysis by studying the connection of these shocks with geopolitical risk. Our findings show that, clean energy stocks are positively impacted by a negative shock in the gas supply to Europe but are not significantly affected by a negative shock in global oil supply. Moreover, clean energy stocks are positively influenced both by oil-specific and gas-specific demand shocks. Finally, the favorable impact of economic demand shocks on clean energy returns lasts more in the oil price model than in the gas price model. Regarding geopolitical risk, we find a strong connectedness, particularly with shocks in the European gas market. These findings imply that, in Europe, clean energy is indeed a substitute to oil and gas in times of crisis. We are then likely to observe an increase in clean energy returns as prices of fossil sources spike.