Resilient Supply Research Articles

Key Elements of a State Regulatory Framework for Managed Aquifer Recharge.

The regulation and permitting of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) has largely been integrated within existing State groundwater regulations. MAR implementation encompasses associated processes that include: (1) source water acquisition and conveyance to the recharge site; (2) source water treatment to ensure compatibility with native groundwater, (3) aquifer capacity to receive recharged water; (4) migration and recovery of recharged water; (5) geochemical reactions of injected water with aquifer matrix and native groundwater; and (6) monitoring and mitigation measures as required. Characterization, design, and operation of the various components involved in successfully recharging groundwater over extended duration is evolving and depends in part on effective coordination and communication between MAR project proponents and regulators. Sustained groundwater availability will depend upon investment in development of effective managed aquifer recharge regulations that are practical, not overly burdensome and support water supply resiliency. MAR has a history of at least 100 years in the United States typically, but not exclusively, in the southwest due to more arid conditions. Regulation and permitting of MAR projects developed over that time vary substantially between states. Implemented properly, MAR project permitting and compliance provide critical oversight to protect water quality and water rights. The MAR regulatory components presented here are intended to inform future development of more consistent and effective regulation across the United States to facilitate investment in their installation and operation.

Beyond COVID-19 and lessons learned in the United States.

The COVID‐19 pandemic severely tested the resilience of the US blood supply with wild fluctuations in blood donation and utilisation rates as community donation opportunities ebbed and hospitals post‐poned elective surgery. Key stakeholders in transfusion services, blood centres, supply chains and manufacturers reviewed their experiences during the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic as well as available literature to describe successes, opportunities for improvement and lessons learned. The blood community found itself in uncharted territory responding to restriction of its access to donors (approximately 20% decrease) and some supplies; environmental adjustments to address staff and donor concerns about coronavirus transmission; and the development of a new product (COVID‐19 convalescent plasma [CCP]). In assuring that the needs of the patients were paramount, the donation process was safe, that clinicians had access to CCP, and vendor relationships aligned, the blood banking community relearned its primary focus: improving patient outcomes.

Estimation of Energy Profile and Possible Energy Savings of Unclassified Buildings

In the European Union, only 1% of the building stock is renovated every year. According to the EU strategy, around 75% of the existing building stock needs to be renovated by 2050. Energy efficiency programs mainly support residential and public building stocks; this article considers military dormitories as a type of unclassified building. It is very important to improve energy efficiency to reduce energy consumption and improve the microclimate in these buildings, since the staff is there 24/7. This paper analyzes the energy consumption and measures the indoor air quality in 13 nonrenovated military dormitories. The personnel in unclassified buildings have limited options for remote work in the case of COVID-19 outbreak. Thus, the retrofitting and maintenance of such buildings must be planned carefully. There is a significant lack of IAQ measurements in unclassified buildings. This study presents a wide analysis of energy consumption, indoor air parameters, and occupant satisfaction. On the basis of real data, four retrofitting scenarios were evaluated in IDA ICE dynamic simulation software. The simulation results showed that, in the case of a deep renovation scenario, the theoretical energy savings could be 77.6–79.3% of the used energy. This paper discusses the solar energy potential of onsite energy production for increasing the efficiency and energy supply resilience of unclassified buildings. The results of this study can be applied to other countries with climate conditions similar to Latvia.

The impacts of tropical storms on food prices: Evidence from China

AbstractClimate change is a major source of external shocks to the economy. In this article, we estimate the short‐term impacts of tropical storms on food prices. After matching the track records of tropical storms with retail prices of food products during 1998 and 2012 in China, we find that tropical storms lead to food prices increasing by 2.3%, and the effect lasts more than one month. The positive impacts on prices mainly concentrate on fresh vegetable products. One main channel of price increases caused by tropical storms is the supply‐side shock to the transportation and distribution system. We find limited evidence of price increases driven by demand‐side shocks such as food displacement and food composition changes. The impacts of tropical storms on food price increases lead to a total loss amounting to $92 million each year on average. This study contributes to literature evaluating the price impacts caused by tropical storms and provides policy implications on enhancing food supply resilience.

Multiobjective Emergency Resource Allocation under the Natural Disaster Chain with Path Planning.

Public safety and health cannot be secured without the comprehensive recognition of characteristics and reliable emergency response schemes under the disaster chain. Distinct from emergency resource allocation that focuses primarily on a single disaster, dynamic response, periodic supply, and assisted decision-making are necessary. Therefore, we propose a multiobjective emergency resource allocation model considering uncertainty under the natural disaster chain. Resource allocation was creatively combined with path planning through the proposed multiobjective cellular genetic algorithm (MOCGA) and the improved A* algorithm with avoidance of unexpected road elements. Furthermore, timeliness, efficiency, and fairness in actual rescue were optimized by MOCGA. The visualization of emergency trips and intelligent avoidance of risk areas were achieved by the improved A* algorithm. The effects of logistics performance, coupling of disaster factors, and government regulation on emergency resource allocation were discussed based on different disaster chain scenarios. The results show that disruption in infrastructure support, cascading effect of disasters, and time urgency are additional environmental challenges. The proposed model and algorithm work in obtaining the optimal solution for potential regional coordination and resilient supply, with a 22.2% increase in the total supply rate. Cooperative allocation complemented by political regulation can be a positive action for successfully responding to disaster chains.

Diversifying Water Sources with Atmospheric Water Harvesting to Enhance Water Supply Resilience

The unequivocal global warming has an explicit impact on the natural water cycle and resultantly leads to an increasing occurrence of extreme weather events which in turn bring challenges and unavoidable destruction to the urban water supply system. As such, diversifying water sources is a key solution to building the resilience of the water supply system. An atmospheric water harvesting can capture water out of the air and provide a point-of-use water source directly. Currently, a series of atmospheric water harvesting have been proposed and developed to provide water sources under various moisture content ranging from 30–80% with a maximum water collection rate of 200,000 L/day. In comparison to conventional water source alternatives, atmospheric water harvesting avoids the construction of storage and distribution grey infrastructure. However, the high price and low water generation rate make this technology unfavorable as a viable alternative to general potable water sources whereas it has advantages compared with bottled water in both cost and environmental impacts. Moreover, atmospheric water harvesting can also provide a particular solution in the agricultural sector in countries with poor irrigation infrastructure but moderate humidity. Overall, atmospheric water harvesting could provide communities and/or cities with an indiscriminate solution to enhance water supply resilience. Further research and efforts are needed to increase the water generation rate and reduce the cost, particularly via leveraging solar energy.

How Far Can Nature-Based Solutions Increase Water Supply Resilience to Climate Change in One of the Most Important Brazilian Watersheds?

Water resources are paramount for the maintenance of the Earth’s system equilibrium; however, they face various threats and need increased conservation and better management. To restore water resources, nature-based solutions can be applied. Nevertheless, it is unclear which solution promotes greater water supply resilience: restoring riparian vegetation, improving management practices in key areas for water recharge, or both? In addition, how significant are these results in the face of climate change effects? To answer this, we used the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to simulate and compare four different land use scenarios under three climate conditions (i.e., observed climate and two of the IPCC’s future climate projections). Focusing on key areas contributed more to increasing water supply resilience than forest restoration. Applying both solutions, however, yielded the greatest increases in resilience and groundwater recharge and the greatest decreases in surface runoff and sediment loads. None of the solutions caused a significant difference in streamflow and water yield. Furthermore, according to both of the IPCC climate projections evaluated, by the end of this century, the average annual streamflow will be lower than the historical mean for the region. Climate adaptation strategies alone will be insufficient to ensure future water access, highlighting the need for implementing drastic mitigation actions.

Effect of tilt angle on the performance of a thin-film photovoltaic system

Solar energy is among the cleanest and most sustainable ways to enhance electrical supply's resiliency and reliability for domestic and industrial use. A Photovoltaic (PV) system is the most effective way of capturing solar energy. Long-term warranty, low-cost maintenance, and vast resource availability, solar power generation has an advantage over other approaches. Thin-film technology PV cells are a new kind of solar cell that offers an efficient technique of generating electricity from sunlight. The thin-film PV technology (FFMAT-10, Renovagen, UK) used in this study can supply 0.9 to 1.6 kW of energy to the fast-fold energy hub. The hub’s system status and configuration display battery power input, battery’s state of charge, thin-film PV power and AC power output. Two fast-fold mats (with a surface area of 25.3 m2) were connected to the energy hub. Increasing energy demand coupled with frequent power outages, and inaccessibility of electricity in rural areas necessitates the usage of PV systems at their best performance level. The study objective, therefore, sought to assess the effect of tilt angle on the performance of the thin-film PV system. The study was conducted at Kimicha in Kirinyaga County Kenya, and Juja, Kenya at tilt angles between 0o to 30o. The results indicated that the mean peak PV power for Kimicha was 347.8±231.9 W at 5o and 517.7± 131.3 W at 15ofor Juja. The maximum solar radiation during the study period was 1086.4 ±211.4 W/m2 for Juja and 973.5±219.93 W/m2 for Kimicha. From the study, it was realized that an optimal tilt angle yields optimum solar radiation that translates to maximum power production. Even though the study was conducted in two different regions, it may be applied to any other geographical location. The outcome of the study aids in acquiring self-sustaining power in the most remote locations where electricity is scarce as well as improving energy security.

Next-generation power delivery system with resiliency and environmental affinity

Renewable energy resources play an important role in the realization of the carbon neutrality. The microgrid can efficiently integrate numerous renewable energy systems into power distribution systems to realize power supply resiliency and environmental affinity. This paper reviews the current trend of microgrid and networked microgrid technologies worldwide, particularly in Japan, including the Flexible, Reliable, and Intelligent Energy Delivery System (FRIENDS) and some other examples of the networked microgrid. Some recent digitalized control functions of the microgrid and related systems are also introduced.

Developing a resilient healthcare supply chain to prevent disruption in the wake of emergency health crisis

PurposeThe study aims to identify and analyse the drivers of resilient healthcare supply chain (HCSC) preparedness in emergency health outbreaks to prevent disruption in healthcare services delivery in the context of India.Design/methodology/approachThe present study has opted for the grey clustering method to identify and analyse the drivers of resilient HCSC preparedness during health outbreaks into high, moderate and low important grey classes based on Grey-Delphi, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Shannon's information entropy (IE) theory.FindingsThe drivers of the resilient HCSC are scrutinised using the Grey-Delphi technique. By implementing AHP and Shannon's IE theory and depending upon structure, process and outcome measures of HCSC, eleven drivers of a resilient HCSC preparedness are clustered as highly important, three drivers into moderately important, and two drivers into a low important group.Originality/valueThe analysis and insights developed in the present study would help to plan and execute a viable, resilient emergency HCSC preparedness during the emergence of any health outbreak along with the stakeholders' coordination. The results of the study offer information, rationality, constructiveness, and universality that enable the wider application of AHP-IE/Grey clustering analysis to HCSC resilience in the wake of pandemics.

Role of Distribution Centers Disruptions in New Retail Supply Chain: An Analysis Experiment

The convergence of physical stores and e-commerce has led to the emergence of a new retail business mode in the retail industry. In today’s world, new retail supply chains face the potential risks of disruption caused by natural and man-made disasters, and epidemics. In this paper, we simulate a three-stage new retail supply chain consisting of suppliers, manufacturers, and a retailer with online and offline channels in the AnyLogistix simulation and optimization software. We develop a simulation model to analyze the effects of various supply chain node disruptions on new retail supply chain performance and service level with consideration of four scenarios: disruption-free; manufacturer disruption; warehouse center disruption; offline store disruption. The main results show that supply chain node disruptions have negative impacts on the performance and service level. Besides, the warehouse center disruption has the most devastating effect on this new retail supply chain. Overall, this paper provides insights for decision-makers to consider disruption issues when designing resilient new retail supply chains.

Changes in Climate Vulnerability and Projected Water Stress of The Gambia's Food Supply Between 1988 and 2018: Trading With Trade-Offs.

BackgroundThe coexistence of under- and overnutrition is of increasing public health concern in The Gambia. Fruits, vegetables and pulses are essential to healthy and sustainable diets, preventing micronutrient deficiencies and non-communicable diseases, while cereals significantly contribute to energy intake. However, environmental changes are predicted to intensify, reducing future yields of these crops if agricultural productivity and resilience are not improved. The Gambia is highly climate-vulnerable and import-dependent, but the extent of its reliance on other climate-vulnerable countries for its supply of nutritionally important crops is currently unknown.MethodsWe used United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data, with novel origin-tracing algorithms applied, to analyse The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses between 1988 and 2018. The climate vulnerability of countries was assessed using Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index scores, and projected water stress (2040) assessed using World Resources Institute (WRI) scores. Multilevel generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to identify changes in the overall climate vulnerability and projected water stress of supply.ResultsBetween 1988 and 2018, The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses diversified, with the proportion domestically produced falling (Cereals: 61.4%–27.7%; Fruits: 93.0%–55.7%; Vegetables: 24.6%–16.3%; Pulses: 100.0%–76.0%). The weighted-average ND-GAIN scores improved (indicating less climate vulnerability) for supply of all crops except cereals, but the weighted-average WRI score for supply deteriorated (indicating increased projected water stress) for all crops except vegetables. When just considering imports, weighted-average ND-GAIN scores deteriorated for fruits and cereals while showing no significant change for other food groups, and the WRI score deteriorated for cereals only.ConclusionsDespite some notable improvements in the environmental vulnerability of The Gambia's supply of nutritionally important crops (particularly vegetables), considerable, and in some cases increasing, proportions of their supply are produced in countries that are vulnerable to climate change and future water stress. This may have implications for the availability, affordability, and hence consumption of these crops in The Gambia, ultimately exacerbating existing nutritional challenges. Exploring the options to strengthen supply resilience—such as altering trade patterns, agricultural techniques and diets—should be prioritized.

The Contribution of Small Modular Reactors to the Resilience of Power Supply

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the design, development and commercialization of nuclear power Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Actual SMR designs cover the full spectrum of nuclear reactor technologies, including water-, gas-, liquid-metal-, and molten-salt-cooled. Despite physical and technological differences, SMRs share some relevant design features, such as small size, modularity, inherent and passive safety systems. These features are expected to enhance availability, recoverability, promptness and robustness, thereby contributing to the resilience of power supply. Thanks to the peculiar design features of SMRs, they are likely to satisfy a number of Functional Requirements (FRs) for this objective, namely: (i) low vulnerability to external hazards; (ii) natural circulation of primary coolant; (iii) prompt, unlimited and independent core cooling under shutdown conditions; (iv) shutdown avoidance in response to variations of the offsite power supply quality and electrical load; (v) island mode operation; (vi) robust load-following; (vii) independent, self-cranking start. These make advanced Nuclear Power Plants (aNPPs) comprised of SMRs perfect candidates to withstand a broader range of natural disruptions and to recover faster from them, compared to conventional Nuclear Power Plants (cNPPs), thus rendering them a major potential asset for guaranteeing resilience and security of power supply. The review focuses on Natural Technological (NaTech) events that impact a typical Integrated Energy System (IESs) within which SMRs are embedded: IESs are, indeed, being developed to integrate different power generation plants with gas facilities, through gas and electricity infrastructures, because they are expected to bring increased security and resilience of power supply, as shown in the qualitative case study presented.

One crisis, different paths to supply resilience: The case of ventilator procurement for the COVID-19 pandemic

This research explores supply resilience through an equifinality lens to establish how buying organizations impacted differently by the same extreme event can strategize and all successfully secure supply. We conduct case study research and use secondary data to investigate how three European governments sourced for ventilators during the first wave of COVID-19. The pandemic had an unprecedented impact on the ventilator market. It disrupted already limited supply and triggered a demand surge. We find multiple paths to supply resilience contingent on redundant capacity and local sourcing options at the pandemic's onset. Low redundancy combined with limited local sourcing options is associated with more diverse strategies and flexibility. The most notable strategy is spurring supplier innovation by fostering collaboration among actors in disparate industries. High redundancy combined with multiple local sourcing options is associated with more focused strategies and agility. One (counter-intuitive) strategy is the rationalization of the supply base.

Enhancing resilience of emergency heat and power supply via deployment of LNG tube trailers: A mean-risk optimization approach

Tube trailers are widely used for distributing liquefied natural gas (LNG) through transportation networks. When a snowstorm occurs in winter, bad weather conditions may cause pipeline blockages and restrict the movement of trailers, leading to an LNG disruption of an islanded integrated energy system (IES). Thus, it is necessary to pre-allocate the trailers and LNG to enhance IES’s resilience and support its LNG consumption during a snowstorm. This paper explores the resilience potential of LNG tube trailers and investigates their optimal pre-allocation strategy. At first, the system operation and damages of IES during a snowstorm are modeled. The network reconfiguration helps reconstruct the damaged network, and pre-allocated LNG helps support heat and power supply. Then, risk-averting two-stage stochastic programming is applied to solve the optimal trailer pre-allocation plan. The first stage tries to reduce the cost of LNG consumption and trailer pre-allocation; the second stage tries to avoid losses of heat and electricity loads. Besides, the conditional-value-at-risk is considered in the model to prevent low-probability but heavy-loss-load-shedding events. Note that the proposed model contains many integer variables, making it non-convex and prohibiting duality theory. A penalty-based Gauss–Seidel method is developed to solve this issue. This method decomposes the model into scenario-independent sub-problems that can be solved in parallel and achieve a consistent first-stage decision. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of trailer pre-allocation in the IES’s resilience enhancement.

Workforce and supply chain disruption as a digital and technological innovation opportunity for resilient manufacturing systems in the COVID-19 pandemic

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (also known as COVID-19), workforce downsizing needs, safety requirements, supply chain breaks and inventory shortages affected manufacturing systems’ and supply chain’s responsiveness and resilience. Companies wandered in a disrupted scenario because recommended actions/strategies to survive – and thrive – were not available an improvised actions to keep their operations up and running. This paper analyzes the COVID-19 impacts on the workforce and supply resilience in a holistic manner. The following research questions are discussed: (i) how can manufacturing firms cope with urgent staff deficiencies while sustaining at the same time a healthy and safe workforce in the perspective of socially sustainable and human-centric cyber-physical production systems?; (ii) is remote working (cf. smart working) applicable to shop-floor workers?; (iii) is it possible to overcome supply chain breaks without stopping production?In the first part, we propose three Industry 4.0-driven solutions that would increase the workforce resilience, namely: (i) the Plug-and-Play worker; (ii) the Remote Operator 4.0; (iii) the Predictive Health of the Operational Staff. In the second part, the concepts of (i) Digital & Unconventional Sourcing, i.e. Additive Manufacturing, and (ii) Product/Process Innovation are investigated from a novel business continuity and integration perspective. We ultimately argue that forward-looking manufacturing companies should turn a disruptive event like a pandemic in an opportunity for digital and technological innovation of the workplace inspired by the principles of harmonic digital innovation (that places the human well-being at the center). These aspects are discussed with use cases, system prototypes and results from research projects carried out by the authors and real-world examples arising lessons learned and insights useful for scientists, researchers and managers.

A systematic assessment method of supply resilience for natural gas supply systems

Natural gas is of vital importance to China’s economy and social stability. Considering the high complexity and uncertainty of China’s natural gas supply system, the stable supply of natural gas faces enormous challenges. How to improve its supply resilience is a key question to be solved urgently. In this paper, the connotation of natural gas supply resilience is defined and a systematic resilience assessment method is proposed based on ecological network analysis. All results are calculated by publicly available data and reasonable assumptions. From the static perspective, it is found that China’s natural gas supply resilience increases during 2016–2020. From the dynamic perspective, the disruption and recovery process of China’s natural gas supply system is quantitatively described. And it is found that increasing the supply capacity of LNG sources is conducive to improving the anti-interference and recovery capabilities of the system. Based on the results, suggestions are proposed to improve China’s natural gas supply resilience. The ecological network analysis model proposed in this paper provides a new perspective for the study of natural gas supply resilience, which can be used as guidance for policy making.

Development of an integrated dynamic model for supply security and resilience analysis of natural gas pipeline network systems

An integrated dynamic model of natural gas pipeline networks is developed in this paper. Components for gas supply, e.g., pipelines, junctions, compressor stations, LNG terminals, regulation stations and gas storage facilities are included in the model. These components are firstly modeled with respect to their properties and functions and, then, integrated at the system level by Graph Theory. The model can be used for simulating the system response in different scenarios of operation, and evaluate the consequences from the perspectives of supply security and resilience. A case study is considered to evaluate the accuracy of the model by benchmarking its results against those from literature and the software Pipeline Studio. Finally, the model is applied on a relatively complex natural gas pipeline network and the results are analyzed in detail from the supply security and resilience points of view. The main contributions of the paper are: firstly, a novel model of a complex gas pipeline network is proposed as a dynamic state-space model at system level; a method, based on the dynamic model, is proposed to analyze the security and resilience of supply from a system perspective.

Environmental Sustainability and Supply Resilience of Cobalt

Cobalt (Co) is an essential metal for the development of energy-transition technologies, decarbonising transportation, achieving several sustainable development goals, and facilitating a future net zero transition. However, the supply of Co is prone to severe fluctuation, disruption, and price instabilities. This review aims to identify the future evolution of Co supply through technologically resilient and environmentally sustainable pathways. The work shows that advances in both primary and secondary sources, Co mining methods and recycling systems are yet to be fully optimised. Moreover, responsible sourcing from both large mines and small artisanal mines will be necessary for a resilient Co supply. Regulatory approaches may increase transparency, support local mining communities, and improve secondary Co recovery. Novel Co supply options, such as deep-sea mining and bio-mining of tailings, are associated with major techno-economic and environmental issues. However, a circular economy, keeping Co in the economic loop for as long as possible, is yet to be optimised at both regional and global scales. To achieve environmental sustainability of Co, economic incentives, regulatory push, and improved public perception are required to drive product innovation and design for circularity. Although the complexity of Co recycling, due to lack of standardisation of design and chemistry in batteries, is an impediment, a sustainable net zero transition using Co will only be possible if a reliable primary supply and a circular secondary supply are established.

Robust Scheduling of Networked Microgrids for Economics and Resilience Improvement

The benefits of networked microgrids in terms of economics and resilience are investigated and validated in this work. Considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions and conventional forecast errors of both renewable generation and loads, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization is proposed to minimize the total operating cost of networked microgrids in the worst scenario of the modeled uncertainties. By coordinating the dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive demand among networked microgrids, the total operating cost is minimized, which includes the start-up and shut-down cost of distributed generators (DGs), the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of DGs, the cost of buying/selling power from/to the utility grid, the degradation cost of energy storage systems (ESSs), and the cost associated with load shedding. The proposed optimization is solved with the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. The results of case studies demonstrate the advantages of networked microgrids over independent microgrids in terms of reducing total operating cost and improving the resilience of power supply.