Wheat Supply Research Articles

Forecasting Errors in the Absence of a Futures Market: The Seasonal Allocation of Wheat Supplies in India

Agricultural policy in developing countries is strongly shaped by views about speculation in the foodgrain markets. The central issue is whether speculative expectations are rational. Yet, data availability and the absence of futures markets rarely permits a direct examination of this hypothesis. However, the government intervenes in the Indian wheat market in a manner that allows speculative expectations to be inferred from government purchase of grain. The application of standard tests of rational expectations is complicated by measurement errors. Results show systematic biases in forecasting errors of a form that would not be sustainable in the presence of a futures market.

Need to determine the relative developmental risks of Fusarium mycotoxin dexoynivalenol (DON) and Benomyl (BEN) in wheat

The wheat supply is known to have levels of deoxynivalenol (DON) from fungal infections. The fungal infections can be suppressed with benomyl (BEN). Under certain exposure laboratory conditions DON and BEN are developmental toxins. Since use of BEN may result in concurrent dietary exposure to both compounds, evaluation of the relative developmental risks is needed. The dietary NOAELs for pup decreased body weight for DON and BEN are 0.375 mg/kg/day in mice and 5 mg/kg/day in rat, respectively. Human exposure to DON can be estimated from surveys of wheat grain and finished products which gave a mean DON concentration of 0.86 ppm. The tolerance level for BEN in grain is 0.2 ppm. Presence of DON and BEN in wheat at these concentrations would not impact wheat consumption. A modified margin of exposure (modMOE) was developed using “a”; kg (food) /kg (body weight) as the constant for wheat consumption. The modMOE for DON is 28/a and that for BEN is 1667/a. Comparative relative risks can be expressed as the ratio of BEN risks to DON risks (60). Treatment with BEN at the most efficacious time decreased DON levels to 34% of controls, and decreased the comparative risk ratio from 60 to 18. The potential for fungicides to decrease mycotoxin health risks is important in the safety assessment for foodstuffs. This approach improves on current practices for food safety assessment by including the expected reductions in risks from naturally occurring mycotoxins in the regulatory analysis.

'The New Wheat Policy' and Domestic Supply and Demand of Wheat(Changeover of Farm Policies and the Problems of Farm Produce Markets,Reports of 1999 Fall Mini-Symposium)

'The New Wheat Policy' and Domestic Supply and Demand of Wheat(Changeover of Farm Policies and the Problems of Farm Produce Markets,Reports of 1999 Fall Mini-Symposium)

Les Aemilii Lepidi et l'approvisionnement en blé de Rome (IIe-Ie Siècles av. J.-C.)

In the last centuries of the Roman Republic, Rome faced a serious shortage of wheat supplies. Three members of the gens Aemilia Lepida tried to solve the crisis by making the cura annonae a family tradition.

Grain price stabilization in India: Evaluation of policy alternatives

AbstractStabilization of prices is an important element of food policy in India as in most other countries — both developing and eveloped. However, since the magnitude of grain stocks held for this purpose as well as the costs of physical storage have become prohibitively high, there is now a need for finding cost‐effective alternatives including non interventionist and market‐oriented methods for price stabilization. In this paper we consider the case of rice and wheat which are staple foodgrains in India. We make a comparison between alternative price stabilization policies including that of holding buffer stocks in terms of their impact on domestic price stability, producer and consumer welfare and government costs. A multi‐market equilibrium framework is used where private storage, consumption, supply and prices of rice and wheat are determined simultaneously. Indian exports and imports are assumed to affect world prices. The alternative price stabilizing mechanisms are ranked according to both the criteria, welfare and price stability achieved. The main findings are as follows. The ranking of alternatives varies with the criterion used. Greater price stability need not necessarily imply greater welfare. The option of variable levies on private external trade turns out to be the most inexpensive and that of domestic buffer stocks the costliest in achieving price stability. Further, the efficacy of buffer stocks and subsidy to private storage in stabilizing prices is lower under free trade as compared to the case where the economy is closed to private external trade.

Grain price stabilization in India: Evaluation of policy alternatives

Abstract Stabilization of prices is an important element of food policy in India as in most other countries — both developing and developed. However, since the magnitude of grain stocks held for this purpose as well as the costs of physical storage have become prohibitively high, there is now a need for finding cost-effective alternatives including non-interventionist and market-oriented methods for price stabilization. In this paper we consider the case of rice and wheat which are staple foodgrains in India. We make a comparison between alternative price stabilization policies including that of holding buffer stocks in terms of their impact on domestic price stability, producer and consumer welfare and government costs. A multi-market equilibrium framework is used where private storage, consumption, supply and prices of rice and wheat are determined simultaneously. Indian exports and imports are assumed to affect world prices. The alternative price stabilizing mechanisms are ranked according to both the criteria, welfare and price stability achieved. The main findings are as follows. The ranking of alternatives varies with the criterion used. Greater price stability need not necessarily imply greater welfare. The option of variable levies on private external trade turns out to be the most inexpensive and that of domestic buffer stocks the costliest in achieving price stability. Further, the efficacy of buffer stocks and subsidy to private storage in stabilizing prices is lower under free trade as compared to the case where the economy is closed to private external trade.

Wheat policy and economy-wide reform in Brazil

Abstract In recent years, the wheat sector in Brazil has moved from governmental protection and public intervention to a free market and privatization. In this study, those changes are analyzed through measures of governmental intervention on nominal rates of protection and on welfare of producers and consumers. Elasticities of demand and supply of wheat are estimated, and the effects of changes in policies are analyzed under official and shadow exchange rates. Welfare measures indicate that almost US$ 8 billion were spent from 1970 until 1989 with policies to subsidize producers and consumers. The policy-induced stimulus to consumer demand exceeded the stimulus to domestic production, and self sufficiency in wheat declined. The reduction in wheat subsidies since 1989 was more than an isolated sector-specific policy. It was part of macroeconomic anti-inflation policy, and it coincided with other economy-wide changes such as real appreciation and a decline in international commodity prices.

Wheat policy and economy‐wide reform in Brazil

AbstractIn recent years, the wheat sector in Brazil has moved from governmental protection and public intervention to a free market and privatization. In this study, those changes are analyzed through measures of governmental intervention on nominal rates of protection and on welfare of producers and consumers. Elasticities of demand and supply of wheat are estimated, and the effects of changes in policies are analyzed under official and shadow exchange rates. Welfare measures indicate that almost US$ 8 billion were spent from 1970 until 1989 with policies to subsidize producers and consumers. The policy‐induced stimulus to consumer demand exceeded the stimulus to domestic production, and self sufficiency in wheat declined. The reduction in wheat subsidies since 1989 was more than an isolated sector‐specific policy. It was part of macroeconomic antiinflation policy, and it coincided with other economy‐wide changes such as real appreciation and a decline in international commodity prices.

Supply Chain Management in Cereal Grains: A Case Study from the U.S. Milling Wheat Industry

This paper studies supply chain management in the grain industry by investigating the effects of wheat quality on marketing arrangements between wheat producers, grain handling companies and processors. Wheat quality is defined by many different characteristics, broadly categorized into physical and intrinsic quality attributes. The complexity of wheat quality places limitations on the effectiveness of industry grading schemes in assuring end‐use quality. In the U.S., wheat grading factors mostly reflect physical characteristics. Moreover, the U.S. wheat industry does little to regulate the intrinsic quality of new cultivars. Consequently, there is functional quality uncertainty in the U.S. wheat market, encouraging some individual processors to segregate wheat based on their own quality specifications. The costs and benefits of wheat segregation are illustrated with a case study of wheat procurement taken from the U.S. flour industry. Pendleton Flour Mills Inc. operates a stringent testing program to segregate wheat supplies with specific intrinsic quality attributes from the U.S. wheat market. The paper concludes that the inadequacy of the U.S. grading system in guaranteeing functional quality provides some processors with an incentive to manage the supply chain for milling wheat.

Wheat Supply Response: Some Evidence on Aggregation Issues

Wheat Supply Response: Some Evidence on Aggregation Issues

Supply chain management: the case of a UK baker preserving the identity of Canadian milling wheat

This paper examines bread wheat quality and its effect on vertical co‐ordination in the wheat supply chain. Wheat quality is defined by many different characteristics, which poses limitations on the effectiveness of industry grading schemes in meeting the quality needs of end‐users. Consequently, individual processors may have an incentive to segregate wheat based on their own quality specifications. The costs and benefits of wheat segregation are analysed using a simple economic model, and illustrated with a case study of supply chain management taken from the UK bread industry. Warburtons Ltd procures bread wheat varieties with specific intrinsic quality attributes from Canada using identity preserved supply contracts. The paper concludes that the benefits of wheat quality control will encourage millers and bakers to develop closer vertical linkages with wheat suppliers in the future.

Estimating the Economic Impact of Breeding Nonspecific Resistance to Leaf Rust in Modern Bread Wheats.

Breeding for resistance to rust diseases in wheat is an example of productivity maintenance research. Productivity maintenance research is necessary to avoid contractions in the wheat supply curve that result from changes in the biological or physical environment. In this study, the benefits of incorporating nonspecific resistance to leaf rust caused by Puccinia recondita into modern bread wheats (Triticum aestivum) have been estimated using data on resistance genes identified in cultivars, trial data, and area sown to cultivar in the Yaqui Valley, Sonora State, Mexico. In the most pessimistic scenario, the gross benefits generated in the Yaqui Valley from 1970 to 1990 were 17 million U.S. dollars (in 1994 real terms). Even when costs were overstated and benefits were understated, the internal rate of return on capital invested was 13%, well within the range recommended for use in project evaluations by the World Bank. Substantial economic benefits likely are associated with deployment of nonspecific resistance in many wheat-producing areas of developing countries where farmers change cultivars slowly because of delays in cultivar release, incomplete seed markets, and economic factors related to adoption or where disease pressure is heavy and the costs of treating disease outbreaks is high.

Export of amino acids to the phloem in relation to N supply in wheat

Export of amino acids to the phloem in relation to N supply in wheat

Export of amino acids to the phloem in relation to N supply in wheat

The effect of different N supply on amino acid export to the phloem was studied in young plants of wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Klein Chamaco), using the exudation in EDTA technique. Plants were grown in a growth cabinet in pots with sand, and supplied with nutrient solutions of different NO3− concentrations. When plants were grown for 15 days with nutrient solutions containing 1.0, 3.0, 5.0, 10.0, 15.0 or 20.0 mM KNO3, the exudation rate of sugars from the phloem was unaffected by N supply, but sugars accumulated in the leaf tissue when the N supply was limiting for growth. On the other hand, the rate of exudation of amino acids was proportional to the NO3− concentration in the nutrient solution. When the supply of N to plants grown for 15 days with 15.0 mM NO3− was interrupted, the exudation of sugars was again unaffected, but there was a fast decrease in the amount of amino acids exudated, and of the concentration of amino acids and nitrogen in the tissues. Also, when 10‐day‐old plants grown without N were supplied with 15.0 mM NO3−, there was a sharp increase in the exudation of amino acids, without changes in the amount of sugar exudated. The rate of exudation of amino acids to the phloem was independent of the concentration of free amino acids in the leaves in all three types of experiment.Asp was the most abundant amino acid in the leaf tissue, while Glu was the one most abundant in the phloem exudate. Asp and Ala were exported to the phloem at a rate lower than expected from their leaf tissue concentrations, indicating some discrimination. On the contrary, Glu showed a preferential export at low N supply.It is concluded that the rate of amino acid export from the leaf to the phloem is dependent on the N available to the plant. This N is used for synthesis of leaf protein when the supply is low, exported to the phloem when supply is adequate, and accumulated in the storage pool when supply is above plant demand.

Bridging the Pacific: California and the China Flour Trade

In mid-1800s, Cadwallader Washburn played a key role in converting frontier town of Min neapolis into milling capital of United States and center for American flour exports to Europe. Coupling modern steam-powered steel roller milling technology with Midwest's boundless supply of wheat and expanding network of railroads and canals, Washburn led way in transforming flour production from a cottage industry to one of country's leading commercial enterprises. During same period in Far West, Gold Rush and subsequent boom in California wheat production spurred rapid development of a sim ilarly dynamic but distinctly oriented Pacific Coast flour industry. Cut off from vast American mar ket by Rocky Mountains, California millers cre ated an industry that produced flour not only to meet regional demand, but also for overseas export by 1860s. Their watchword did indeed become the Ori

A Stochastic simulation analysis of the effects of Indian wheat production instability on the world wheat market

Adverse weather factors in India augment the instability in wheat supply and trade. Consequently, India's wheat trade is a classic example of stochastic supply being the dominant factor in determining trade flows. This study analyzes the effects of random fluctuations in India's wheat supply on domestic and world price variability and trade flows of India and major exporters and importers by using stochastic simulation analysis. Trade mitigates price variability and, thus, acts as a buffer stock program in reducing price variability. The results show that production shortfalls (surpluses) in India benefit wheat exporters (importers) and hurt importers (exporters).

The Monitoring Forecasting Assessing Decision-Making Service System of Soil Moisture Stress of Winter Wheat and Its Application in North China Region

During the growing season of winter wheat, the precipitation amount in the North China Region, where the water resource is seriously insufficient, amounts to only 100-250mm and can not meet the demand of winter wheat.This paper demonstrated the geographic distribution of the difference between the water demand and supply of winter wheat in different climatic years (guaranteed probability of precipitation during growth period of winter wheat at 75%, 50% and 25% respectively). The water differences were calculated with a field water balance equation.To determine proper irrigation time and amount, and to ensure stable and high production of winter wheat with limited water resource, Monitoring Forecasting Assessing Decision-Making Service System (MFADSS) of soil moisture stress of winter wheat was constructed on the basis of experimental research on the relationship between soil moisture and winter wheat. The techniques and functions of each subsystem are also demonstrated.The system was applied to more than 3 million ha. of winter wheat in 90 counties of the North China Region. Accuracy of the decision of the irrigation reached about 95 per cent. The water-saving and high yield function of the system was shown clearly. Obvious social, economical and ecological benefits were obtained during 1990-1995 under the support of the government.

Influence de l'apport de blé ou de pommes de terre dans une ration complète pour vaches laitières : interaction avec la nature du fourrage

Summary — Influence of the supply of wheat or potatoes as a complement in a total mixed ration for dairy cows: interaction with the forage nature. The effect of starch source used as an energy concentrate (wheat or potato pelling residues) was studied in interaction with forage nature (maize silage or grass silage) in a latin square design with 24 dairy cows. The diets, consisting of maize silage + straw or grass silage, formaldehyde-treated soyabean meal, formaldehyde-treated rapeseed and soyabean meal and wheat or potato pelling residues, had, for the same forage, similar energy and crude protein concentrations. The dry matter intake was significantly (P < 0.01 ) higher with the potatoes (+ 1.3 kg DM /cow /day) and with the maize silage (+ 2.1 kg DM /cow /day). The milk yield was not significantly affected by the treatments. With the maize silage diets, the fat content of the milk, the fat corrected milk and the fat yield were significantly higher with the potatoes (respectively + 2.6 g/kg, + 1.7 kg/day and + 103 g/day compared with wheat, P < 0.05) when the nature of the energy concentrate had no significant effect with the grass silage diets. The true protein content, the protein yield and the gain in body weight were significantly lower with the grass silage diets (respectively - 0.9 g/kg, - 43 g/day and - 327 g/day compared with grass silage, P < 0.01). The non protein nitrogen and urea contents of the milk and the uremia were significantly higher with the maize silage diets (respectively + 24, + 42 and + 55 mg/L compared with grass silage, P < 0.01) and with the wheat (respectively + 6, + 24 and + 20 mg/L compared with the potatoes, P < 0.05).

Cropland Retirement and Supply Control in the Great Plains

Supply control has been an important rationale for agricultural commodity policies for the past 60 yr. The principal policy instrument to provide supply control through successive agricultural legislation has been cropland retirement. Both annual (set-asides, cropland diversion, acreage reserve) and long term (Soil Bank, Conservation Reserve Program [CRP]) have been applied. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of annual commodity-specific and general long-term cropland retirement programs toward achieving the supply control objectives of agricultural policies. The analyses indicate that annual cropland retirement programs for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) have no effect on the amount of wheat produced in the Great Plains. Long-term land retirement programs, such as the CRP, have only limited supply control effectiveness for wheat production in the Great Plains states. Rationale for continuing the CRP includes increased reliance on it for supply control within the more market oriented policy for agriculture. While this analysis finds long-term cropland retirement programs to be more effective for supply control than annual wheat set-asides, the effectiveness of the CRP for controlling the wheat supply from the Great Plains is, at best, limited.

Programming models of farm supply response: The impact of specification errors

This paper explores the influence of specification errors in a programming model of farm wheat supply response. Specification errors are introduced by excluding various characteristics of production activities and other features of the farming system. Often model misspecification causes large changes in production response with wheat area and output elasticities changing by 40 per cent or more. In many cases the changes are due to the slope effect ( d Q/ d P) dominating the shift effect (P/Q). The main inference from results is that unless the farming system, with its array of production technologies, resources and enterprise alternatives, is described in some detail, it is highly likely that specification errors will noticeably bias estimates of supply response. Advances in spreadsheet, database and solving algorithm software enable farming systems to be described in greater detail, and with greater ease, than has hitherto been possible, so often model builders have fewer excuses for misspecifying models.