Supply Of Debt Research Articles

Bond Supply Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper investigates the influence of forward-looking government bond supply information on changes in the term structure of interest rates. While traditional arbitrage-free models suggest that bond supply should not impact bond yields, models accounting for preferred-habitat investors and imperfect asset substitutability raise this possibility. By analysing debt supply expectations derived from Germany's Treasury press releases, we find that news about expected bond supply affects bond yields, supporting the notion that supply expectations influence current interest rates. Our study also extends macro-finance models, highlighting the significant role of supply expectations in term structure dynamics. Additionally, we provide insights into the puzzle of German government bond yields falling below the ECB deposit rate.

Capital flow freezes

AbstractThe period following the 2008 financial crisis focused attention on “twin-crises,” where banking crises precipitate sovereign crises due to increased bank support. We show that when private sector debt is renegotiated centrally, and bargaining power is low, it results in suboptimally low levels of debt and default rates (haircuts). If, instead, the bargaining power is sufficiently high, the supply of debt exceeds its demand and capital inflows “freeze”. These inefficiencies arise because the decentralized borrowers fail to consider how their bond supply impacts debt renegotiation outcomes, affecting both bond prices and the asset span. These issues can be addressed through macroprudential policies in the form of taxing capital inflows.

GLOBAL FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE MEDIATED BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF ISLAMIC CENTRAL BANKS

The current global financial market, where money is based on debt, does not reflect a perception of wealth creation for inter-country life. The orientation of national income and expenditure has shifted towards debt. Citizenship has transformed into a consumerist lifestyle, and a country's economic policies have become dependent on the supply of debt. The financial structure of both nations and societies is created from one debt to another, with debt serving as the global financial standard. The Taylor rule links debt parallel to interest rates, transforming money into a commodity. Removing money from the current global financial market structure must be mediated by the establishment of a Shariah central bank under the supervision of the World Bank.

FDI and import competition and domestic firm's capital structure: Evidence from Chinese firm-level data

This study explores how foreign competition impacts the capital structure of domestic firms. While existing literature reveals that import competition is associated with a decrease in domestic firms' leverage, we propose a novel perspective concerning the positive effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on leverage. FDI competition can boost demand for debt via productivity spillover to domestic firms, and also increase supply of debt by inducing lenders to herd toward foreign investors. Using Chinese firm-level data, we find that the positive effects of industry inward FDI on domestic firms' leverage are more pronounced in high-tech industries, industries with higher productivity growth, and industries where foreign investors exhibit a higher degree of herding behavior. Our instrument variable approach, employing industry exchange rates and import tariffs, supports these findings. Additionally, we reveal that the positive effect of FDI on local firms' leverage is amplified when the firms have stronger absorptive capacities, receive foreign capital, and experience more human capital transfers from foreign rivals.

The effect of environment, social and governance on demand and supply of debt

ABSTRACT This paper investigates how Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) performance affects the zero-leverage phenomenon. Using a sample of European-listed firms for the 2002–2020 period and bivariate probit models with partial observability, we find that a greater ESG performance decreases the firm’s propensity to have zero leverage. The negative effect of ESG performance on zero leverage is determined by creditors-related reasons and not by firms’ own decisions, since it only impacts significantly the supply of debt. Creditors seem to be willing to grant debt at more favourable conditions to firms with greater ESG performance. Using propensity score methods, we estimate that a greater ESG performance decreases a firm’s zero-leverage propensity by approximately 3.9% points.

Deconstructing Debt Supply Shocks Using Treasury Auction Announcements

Deconstructing Debt Supply Shocks Using Treasury Auction Announcements

Inefficient Regulation: Mortgages versus Total Credit

Abstract We estimate the willingness-to-pay to bypass a loan-to-value (LTV) cap. Our identification relies on exogenous variation in debt exempt from the LTV regulation that can only be used as a substitute for a personal mortgage. Our baseline estimate reveals that homebuyers pay 7.3 Swedish Kroner (SEK) to avoid 1 SEK of equity down payment. The supply of debt not part of the LTV calculation increased by approximately 50% within 2 years after the LTV regulation. Financially weaker households drive the results.

The dysfunctional taboo: monetary financing at the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank

Monetary financing – the issuance of public money to support public expenditure – remains a widespread policy taboo. In this article, we analyze the operational practices of the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) from the 20th onwards to argue that monetary finance should be understood as a conventional and legitimate part of central banks’ core functions. We argue that monetary financing serves a crucial macro-financial role in the face of large fluctuations in the demand for and supply of government debt, where the central bank acts to stabilize sovereign debt markets. We show that monetary financing has been a stable and pervasive feature of the Bank of England’s and the Federal Reserve’s operations. Turning to the ECB, we show that by the mid-2000s the view came to dominate the institution that the central bank should allow markets to punish governments for excessive deficits. This view informed the ECB’s catastrophic reluctance to act on the 2008 and 2009 Financial Crisis deficits. By 2020 that attitude had once again largely been abandoned.

Credit Default Swaps and Borrowers’ Real Earnings Management: Evidence From Credit Default Swap Initiation

In this study, we examine whether the initiation of credit default swap (CDS) trading alters borrowers’ real earnings management activities. Creditors increase debt supply and loosen loan contracts after CDS initiation, which in turn lessens borrowers’ pressure to resort to real earnings management as a way of lowering the cost of debt and increasing debt capacity. Consistent with this prediction, we find that borrowers reduce myopic real earnings management activities after CDS initiation. Furthermore, we show that this negative association between CDS initiation and real earnings management is more pronounced for borrowers with safer financial status and fewer debt covenants. Our findings remain robust to conducting a parallel trend analysis, employing the propensity score matching and the two-stage instrumental variable methods, using alternative measures of real earnings management, and controlling for accrual-based earnings management. Overall, our study suggests a potential “bright side” of CDS contracts by showing that the introduction of CDS contracts reduces, rather than exacerbates, borrowers’ myopic real earnings management behavior.

Corporate climate risk exposure and capital structure: Evidence from Chinese listed companies

This study investigates how corporate climate risk exposure (CCRE) affects corporate capital structure. We find that CCRE significantly reduces corporate financial leverage, and the result still holds after robustness tests. We further find that the negative impact of CCRE on corporate financial leverage is partly driven by both the corporate capital demand and debt supply effects. We also find that this relationship is more significant for companies with higher physical risk and transition risk. These results suggest that corporate capital structure decisions -change in response to CCRE.

Corporate debt choice and bank capital regulation

This paper proposes a macro-banking model with corporate debt choice and investigates the impacts of bank capital regulation. Compared to non-banks, banks provide restructurable debt that resolves firm liquidations. Capital regulation corrects deposit insurance distortions but reduces bank debt supply. The model calibrated to the U.S. economy suggests that the non-bank market booms in the short run but shrinks in the long run when capital requirements are tightened. While banks get stabilized, firms encounter liquidations more frequently despite their deleveraging. Welfare improves under tighter and counter-cyclical capital requirements.

Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area

This paper proposes an identification strategy for news about sovereign debt-based asset purchases. It measures sovereign yield changes that are unrelated to movements in risk-free interest rates or risk premiums. Around ECB announcements, these reflect the anticipation of shifts in the effective supply of government debt, caused by central bank purchases. This paper documents that asset purchase news about government bonds have substantial spillovers to corporate bond and stock markets, within and beyond the euro area. Spillovers are unequal across euro-area countries, as stock prices rise most in low-risk countries with very large firms. In contrast, sovereign yields fall homogeneously.

Evaluating the nonlinear relationship between nonfinancial corporate sector leverage and financial stability in the post crisis era

<abstract> <p>This paper analyzes the relationship between the nonfinancial corporate sector leverage (NFCL) and financial stability in the post crisis era, revealing considerable heterogeneity across the level of financial intermediation (FI). First, we use the financial soundness indicators proposed by the IMF and the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) to measure the financial stability represented by the FSI of OECD countries. Second, in a panel quantile regression framework, we examine the effects of NFCL on FSI for different quantiles of FSI. The result shows that the impact of NFCL on financial stability at different levels is asymmetric, which reflects differences in the supply and demand of debt. Third, this paper further discusses the transmission mechanism of FI between NFCL and FSI based on the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR). We find that the transmission channel of NFCL to financial stability depends on the level of financial intermediation, but with diverging magnitude for the different levels of FI.</p> </abstract>

Effect of Deficit Financing on Economic Growth in Bangladesh: Cointegration and VECM Approach

Bangladesh has been encountering a budget deficit since 1972 because of a decrease in the source of income. This paper aims to examine the effect of budget deficit financing on economic growth in Bangladesh throughout 1981–2018. Using secondary data, the paper uses the cointegration test, vector error correction mechanism (VECM) and Granger causality test. Johansen’s cointegration test outcomes find that the study variables are cointegrated and subsequently have a long-run nexus among the variables. The study finds that in the long run, government domestic debt (GDD), government external debt (GEXD) and money supply (MS) affect positively economic growth (RGDP). The outcomes of the VECM approach express that in the short run, GDD, external debt and MS negatively affect economic growth. Also, short-run causality runs from the GDD, GEXD and MS to economic growth. The Granger causality test result shows unidirectional causal nexus running from GDD to RGDP, RGDP to external debt and GEXD to MS, and bidirectional causal nexus between MS and GDD in Bangladesh. The study suggests the governments should enhance moderate levels of domestic and external borrowing and uses it in productive and efficient ways to accelerate economic growth in Bangladesh.

External Debts and Economic Growth when Debt Rating Matters

The paper investigates the dependence pattern of economic growth on external debt supply by accounting for the safety of debts, measured by the sovereign debt rating. The method of cross-section regression is based on a sample of 145 advanced and developing economies with averaged data over the 1990–2019 period. The pattern of economic growth follows a U-shaped curve, for which the growth rate is first decreasing and then increasing on the external debt supply. A possible explanation can rely on the sovereign debt rating. For low supply of external debts, more supply of debts reduces the debt rating, which, in turn, lowers the economic growth rate. But for high enough supply of debts, more debts raise their rating, improving the growth rate. These results are robust on controlling for various determinants of economic growth and on the fixed effect panel regression.

The effects of government debt on banks’ risk-taking: international evidence

ABSTRACT We empirically investigate the effects of government debt on banks’ risk-taking by using a dataset covering 10,122 banks located in 65 countries between 2009 and 2019. We find that a greater supply of government debt can increase risk-taking of banks. This positive relation is stronger for domestic government debt, or for banks with higher level of capitalization and loans to deposits.

Ambiguity attitudes and the leverage cycle

Financial crises originate in debt markets, where beliefs formation about asset values affects the value of collateral, hence the leverage cycles. We introduce novel state-contingent ambiguity attitudes, which endogenously induce pessimism in recessions and optimism in booms, in a model with occasionally binding collateral constraints and exogenous debt supply. Ambiguity is measured in the data through GMM estimation of the Euler equations, and delivers over-extrapolative behaviors through forecasters' beliefs' wedges and forecast errors. Analytically and numerically (global methods), it is shown that the model explains asset price and debt cycle facts. Optimism heightens the build-up of debt and asset prices prior to a crisis event and enhances leverage pro-cyclicality; pessimism heightens the de-leveraging following it.

Household Default, Capital Constrained Large Banks, and Selective Spillovers

Our analysis reveals that banks could develop capital-constrained by holding nonperforming household debts supported by central bank liquidity. We demonstrate the sequential responses to nonperforming assets on retained earnings, capital reserve, and new equity issuance. With capital reserves, banks can keep adding risky assets when retained earnings lag. Running low, banks have to downsize and issue new equity. We document market predictions on firms’ exposure before a systemic event: large banks collectively reduced their debt supply in 2009. Practicing selectively and collectively downsizing, banks prioritize clients on historical revenue contribution. Borrowers with exclusive relationships report lower risk exposure.

State-dependent fiscal multipliers with preferences over safe assets

I examine the effect of fiscal policy at the zero lower bound when households have preferences over safe assets (POSA) parameterized consistent with microeconomic evidence on intertemporal choices and the macroeconomic elasticity between US government debt supply and bond yields. POSA loosen the link between household consumption and permanent-income, and imply a wealth effect from government bonds. Therefore, the multiplier of a permanent expenditure change increases. I show that these conclusions carry over to an estimated DSGE model. POSA improves the empirical fit of the model if the dataset includes forward interest rates on top of fiscal and macroeconomic data.

THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA, PERIOD 2004Q1-2018Q4

Abstract Fiscal sustainability illustrates the condition of a healthy government budget which can finance government spending without increasing debt supply. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on fiscal sustainability which in this study fiscal sustainability is proxied as a government budget deficit. The data used in this study is the 2004Q1-2018Q4 time series data using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results showed that fiscal conditions in Indonesia are sustainable and macroeconomic variables such as domestic debt andinflation has a positive effect on increasing the government budget deficit. Whereas the variable state revenues and foreign debt negatively affect the government budget deficit.Keywords : Fiscal Sustainability, Government Budget Deficit, Domestic Debt, Foreign Debt.