State-dependent fiscal multipliers with preferences over safe assets

Abstract

I examine the effect of fiscal policy at the zero lower bound when households have preferences over safe assets (POSA) parameterized consistent with microeconomic evidence on intertemporal choices and the macroeconomic elasticity between US government debt supply and bond yields. POSA loosen the link between household consumption and permanent-income, and imply a wealth effect from government bonds. Therefore, the multiplier of a permanent expenditure change increases. I show that these conclusions carry over to an estimated DSGE model. POSA improves the empirical fit of the model if the dataset includes forward interest rates on top of fiscal and macroeconomic data.