Crude Oil Supply Research Articles

A novel prediction model of multi-layer symbolic pattern network: Based on causation entropy

Faced with the high-dimensional characteristics of time series, symbolization is usually used to reduce the dimensionality and effectively eliminate redundancy and irrelevant features. Several existing network prediction methods, which based on the topology of complex networks, only consider the target sequence itself, which ignored the influence of related factors. In this paper, we improve the single-layer network and construct a Multi-layer Symbolic Pattern Network (MSPN) prediction model by considering the interaction between different variables with time lag. The basic idea is to link the directed weighted networks based on causation entropy (CSE), then extract the multi-layer network topology to jointly predict the target sequence. The 2018/1–2018/12 fluctuation trend of crude oil futures prices are predicted, with auxiliary variables including crude oil supply, demand and the three major U.S. stock indexes (S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ Composite Index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average). The results show that the multi-layer network improves the directional prediction accuracy of oil price over the single-layer network, where demand and Dow Jones Industrial Average’s auxiliary perform best. It is worth noting that considering auxiliary variables can be effective in improving the accuracy of the model. The more auxiliary layers are not the better, generally considering two auxiliary layers, that is, the three-layer network prediction model can achieve higher accuracy.

Study of the Effect of Glycerol Plasticizer on the Properties of PLA/Wheat Bran Polymer Blends

Polylactic Acid (PLA) is a natural polymer that can be used as a raw material for making plastics. PLA plastic manufacturing has developed rapidly since the crude oil supply is getting lower, besides PLA plastic is environmentally friendly. In this research, the development of PLA from starch and wheat bran was developed by using glycerol as a plasticizer. PLA film is made by lactic acid fermentation. After fermentation, PLA mixed with wheat bran with a ratio of 20:80 (w/w) and a variety of glycerol concentration of 0%; 1%; 3%; 5%; and 7%, then heating at 200 °C for 5 minutes. The film later printed in plastic size dimension of 15cm × 20cm and incubated at 50 °C for 5 hours, then dried in room temperature of ± 27 °C. The effect of glycerol addition as a plasticizer on PLA is analyzed using mechanical tests, swelling, solubility, and chemical resistance. Film with 1 wt% of glycerol composition is optimal composition of tensile strength value of 1.22 MPa, 0.014% elongation, swelling of 0.4, solubility of 0.0207%.

Pass-through of oil supply shocks to domestic gasoline prices: evidence from daily data

Oil prices react to various types of shocks, and their impacts could reach our lives quickly. For example, on one day, we might hear on the radio that OPEC has decided to cut their oil production for the next year, and, only a few days later, find out that our local gasoline station has just raised the price. This paper examines daily data on gasoline prices, produced by a price comparison site in Japan, to estimate how they respond to a shock that hit the world oil market. In doing so, we take seriously the possibility that an increase in oil prices might cause different reactions depending on the source of the change. This paper focuses on one particular type of shock, namely changes in expectations about future supplies of crude oil. Identification is achieved via estimating a version of the Structural VAR with External Instruments (SVAR-IV or proxy-VAR) coupled with High Frequency Identification (HFI). The result confirms that pass-through is indeed very fast: about 70% of the entire adjustment process is completed within just 18 days.

Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks inOil Price Differentials

We show that the oil market has become closer to “one great pool,” in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. We document, in particular, that many of these price differentials experienced a major structural break in or around 2008, after which there was a marked reduction in their means and volatilities. Differentials between residual fuel oil, a low-quality fuel, and higher-valued products, such as gasoline and diesel, experienced similar breaks during the same time period. A growing ability of the global refinery sector to process lower-quality crude oil and the U.S. shale boom, which has unexpectedly boosted the supply of high-quality crude oil, are two factors consistent with these changes. Differentials between crude oils of similar quality in general did not experience breaks in or around 2008, although we do find evidence of breaks at other times.Crude oil price differentials, Oil, Structural breaks, Refining

Dynamic Effect of Structural Oil Price Shocks on New Energy Stock Markets

This paper decomposes daily crude oil shocks into demand shock, supply shock and risk shock. Then, it employs Diebold and Yilmaz connectedness index approach to explore the differences for the time-varying effect of different types of structural shocks on new energy stock markets in China, Europe and the United States during the period 10 June 2009–30 October 2018. The new findings show that: 1) There are time-varying features of structural shocks to all new energy markets. 2) The crude oil demand shock and risk shock have a large explanatory ability on the returns of all new energy stock markets, while the crude oil supply shock has a small impact. 3) The influences of crude oil demand shocks on the market returns of new energy in China, Europe and the United States are 1.31%, 8.64%, and 4.47%, respectively; however, the affection of crude oil risk shocks to the market returns of new energy in the same markets are 3.17%, 7.91%, and 21.51%, respectively. 4) The crude oil demand shock and supply shock have little impact on any new energy market volatilities, but the effects of crude oil risk shocks to China and the United States’ new energy market volatilities are 2.44% and 3.14%, respectively.

Experimental Investigation for the usage of Diesel - Jatropha – Rice bran Biodiesel Mixture Blends in Four Stroke Diesel Engine

In last few decades, the demand of fossil fuel increases due to the enormous increases in vehicle population. There is a shortage of crude oil supply due to the excess need of fossil fuel. This urges the researchers to switch to renewable resources, like biofuels. Biodiesels can be produced successfully from plants such as palm, jatropha, rapeseed, rice bran, soyabean, corn etc. The use of biodiesel will considerably reduce the emissions also and thus increases the engine performance. The oil is converted to biodiesel with the help of trans-esterification process. The properties, emission characteristics and performance for the Compression Ignition (CI) of the fuel process are examined for biodiesel which is blended with two oils (rice bran and Jatropha oil blend mixture) by using this experimental study. The results indicate that the calorific value forthe dual blends of biodiesel decreases with an increase in biodiesel concentration in the blends of diesel-biodiesel mixture. It is found that the brake thermal efficiency is lower for biodiesel blends. For higher ratio of blends, biodiesel blends givelower HC and NOx emissions.

Socioeconomic Impact of COVID-19 in MENA region and the Role of Islamic Finance

This paper analyses the socio-economic impact of the noble Corona virus (COVID-19) on ‘Middle East and North Africa’ (MENA) region as well as the role and opportunities of Islamic finance post COVID-19. The findings show that pandemic has affected the MENA region massively like any other region in the world. Since around 69% of the word’s crude oil supply is from this region alone, this causes it to suffer from dual shocks of COVID-19 pandemic as well as the declining crude prices that is caused by shocks from both ends, negative supply shock and a negative demand shock. The 19 countries in MENA region include from some of the richest countries of the world such as, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, to some of the most vulnerable, poor and war ridden countries like Yemen, Syria, and Morocco. To mitigate the adverse effects of the pandemic, we suggest some immediate actions that can be taken such as a public fund to support health system, financial support to individuals and SME’s, financial support to corporations in order to prevent job loss and layoff and assurance of liquidity in domestic markets to prevent liquidity crunch. Finally, the paper analyses the role of Islamic finance in the region in recovery post COVID-19 and show that Islamic finance can be utilized as an alternative financial system in providing the relief to the COVID-19 affected people and entrepren

Design of a sustainable integrated crude oil manufacturing network with risk cover and uncertainty considerations: a case study

The oil industry is one of the largest and most influential manufacturing systems in the world. In addition to being the world’s leading source of energy, oil plays an important role in determining the national power and international reputation of various countries. This industry has certain characteristics that distinguish it from other manufacturing systems. Some of these characteristics include the strategic importance of products, variable prices, and political pressure. This industry is one of the most sophisticated manufacturing systems in the world, incorporating integrated activities from vendor to customer. In this paper, we presented a multi-objective integrated mathematical model including all three upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors of the crude oil supply chain. Our proposed multi-product, multi-period, and multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming model address an optimal solution. We have a scenario-based approach which deals with two sources of uncertainty. Conditional value at risk approach was applied to minimize the risk. Also, the social and environmental aspects of the supply chain are considered simultaneously to propose a sustainable model. Finally, the performance of the model is illustrated and analyzed using the real data of a national refining and distribution company. According to the results, the risk coverage by conditional value at risk has a positive impact on the model.

Research on the control of slack flow of China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline

China-Kazakhstan pipeline is the first land import transnational crude oil pipeline in China. It is also the only long-distance crude oil channel connecting the resources in the west of Kazakhstan and the two refineries in the east of Kazakhstan and exports to China. It undertakes the dual responsibilities of crude oil supply of the two refineries in the east of Kazakhstan and the crude oil guarantee of refineries in Western China. At present, the annual throughput of China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline accounts for about 20% of China's onshore crude oil imports. Therefore, the pipeline’s safe, stable and efficient operation plays an important role in ensuring the strategic security of energy in Western China. Since the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline has commissioned, it has been found that there is slack flow in the pipeline under different working conditions, which has a great impact on the safe and stable operation of the pipeline and the measurement accuracy of commercial trade. In this paper, the causes of slack flow in China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline are studied, the potential location of slack flow is analyzed, and the boundary conditions of slack flow condition are defined. At the same time, control strategies to avoid slack flow under different conditions are formulated by using simulation technology. The research results will provide direct technical case support for reasonable formulation of operation scheme of China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline system and terminal station inlet pressure control strategy, so as to ensure safe, stable and efficient operation of the pipeline.

Analytic Hierarchy Process–Based Environmental Criteria Weight Assessment and Prioritization for Suitable Petroleum Refining Plant siting in Edo State, Nigeria

In this paper, Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) of Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) technique was used to estimate the weights of some selected environmental criteria in the suitable siting of a Petroleum refining Plant. In doing this, fifteen (15) key environmental criteria, based on reviewed literature, specifications, and Environmental Impact Assessment Act (EIA) on the siting of petroleum refining plants were selected for this study, which includes Ground Water level, Proximity to major settlement, Proximity to Water bodies, Proximity to the Electricity transmission line, Land use / Land cover, Topography, Sensitive and Protected Areas proximity, Critically Polluted Areas (refuse dumpsites, landfill sites, etc.), Proximity to Existing Industrial areas, Major Transportation network, Flood zones, Proximity to crude oil supply (oil well), Wind speed, Large-scale Mines and Population density. The result from the calculated environmental criteria weights show proximities of Petroleum refinery to existing industrial areas; source of crude oil and Landuse/Landcover to have the highest influence value, followed by proximity to Water Body; Population Density; Groundwater Level; Major Settlement; Wind Speed; Transportation Network, Topography, while Sensitive/Protected Areas, Critically Polluted areas and Flood zones with the least influence value. The result of this AHP – based weight assessment will be used generally by Planners, Investors, Environmental Managers, and Oil and Gas experts as a general guide in the prioritization of criteria weights based on the influence of one criterion over the other in the suitability siting of petroleum refining plant.

Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective

This paper employs the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) to assess the causal relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and crude oil security (COS) for China. In contrast to prior papers, we regard GPR as an independent variable rather than including it in the indicator system and construct oil supply and price channels to better understand how GPR influences Chinese COS. The mixed-frequency data regression provides a new insight that quarterly geopolitical risk threatens Chinese oil security, and a time-varying nexus is discovered in different quarters within a one-year period. Therefore, the Chinese state-owned oil giants should implement diversified strategies such as equity acquisition and oil field investment to ensure a stable crude oil supply. China also needs to construct friendly relations with oil-exporting countries and join United Nations activities such as Somali escorts and peacekeeping in Africa to protect oil production and transportation. The establishment of crude oil futures dominated by the RMB is an effective way to strengthen oil affordability to cope with the oil price volatility caused by geopolitical instabilities.

A MILP-based clustering strategy for integrating the operational management of crude oil supply

In this paper, we present a MILP clustering formulation for tackling the operational management of crude oil supply (OMCOS) proposed by de Assis et al. (2019). The OMCOS consists of defining the scheduling of vessel trips between offshore platforms and a crude oil terminal, combined with the scheduling of operations in a terminal to supply crude oil to distillation columns. The benefits of using the clustering solution as a pre-step before solving the OMCOS are: (a) reduces the number of routes for vessels; (b) simplifies offloading and unloading operations; (c) imposes rules for crude mixtures in clusters of storage tanks that minimize property variations; and (d) produces bounds on crude properties inside storage tanks that are used to linearize bilinear terms in blending constraints. Through the combination of clusters and a MILP-NLP decomposition, near optimal solutions were obtained for a set of representative instances of OMCOS at a reduced computational cost.

Explaining the nonlinear response of stock markets to oil price shocks

This paper is set to reconcile the existent conflicting empirical evidence on the effect of oil prices on stock prices. We estimate various nonlinear models where the response changes according to a first-order Markov switching process. More importantly, we model the transition probabilities between the high- and low-response regimes to depend on state variables to allow us to explain the forces behind the asymmetry in the response. The results show statistically significant asymmetries that can be explained by economic recessions and to a lower extent depend on the magnitude of the oil price shift and on whether the shift is positive or negative. In the high response regime, the effect is positive and lasts longer. We also find evidence of asymmetries in the response of stock prices to crude oil supply shocks, global aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks.

Quantitative approach to estimating crude oil supply in Southern Europe

In the development of programs for delivering crude oil to Southern Europe, it is necessary to determine the trends in crude oil delivery and production and to analyze the capabilities of the crude oil transportation system. The global trend towards reducing the consumption of non-renewable energy has led to a significant reduction in the number of refineries in Europe. The purpose of this paper was to determine the trends in oil production and delivery and to assess the capacity of the oil transportation systems in Southern Europe. The allocation of crude oil production and delivery facilities in Southern European countries from 2005 to 2015 was analyzed using quantitative evaluation methodology. Changes in European crude oil production and delivery were highlighted. The transport infrastructure potential of oil supplies to consumers and oil production was studied. The study established that from 2013 to 2015, the oil supply to the refineries increased and generated additional stress on the transportation infrastructure. However, European infrastructure capacities had the necessary reserves to operate for the next several years without additional investment. In this paper, aggregate numbers for oil production and delivery are used. In addition, different refineries process different oil types. Nevertheless, the approach designed in this study can be applied to study the supply of certain oil types on the market.

Modeling and Performance Analysis of Shale Oil and Methane Cogeneration by Oil Shale Pyrolysis Integrated with a Pyrolysis Gas Methanation Process

Shale oil is regarded as an alternative to crude oil, and the use of this resource can relieve the crude oil supply shortage. China has abundant oil shale resources, and the conventional shale oil production process is based on oil shale pyrolysis (OSP). However, oil shale pyrolysis suffers from unsatisfactory technoeconomic performance. The process has many constraints, among which the most important constraint is the inefficient utilization of oil shale pyrolysis gas. The driving force determining the energy-efficient and economically beneficial use of pyrolysis gas calls for chemical conversion for high-value chemical production instead of direct combustion for power generation. A new process of shale oil and methane cogeneration by oil shale pyrolysis integrated with pyrolysis gas methanation is therefore proposed. The pyrolysis gas is first separated to obtain olefins, and then, it is used to produce methane by methanation technology. This conversion can significantly improve the energy efficiency and economic benefits. Technoeconomic analysis shows that the exergy efficiency of the new process is increased by 14.52% and the return on investment is increased by 23.33% in comparison with the conventional oil shale pyrolysis process. The proposed process provides a promising method for the efficient utilization of pyrolysis gas in the oil shale pyrolysis industry.

The Influence of the Russian Federation on Poland’s Energy Security

Energy security is a key element of national security. It is difficult to formulate a proper structure for strategic culture or political strategy without considering this key element. Therefore, it is nec-essary to discuss particularly important factors shaping the Polish security policy: diversification of energy ties, adaptation of the national technical infrastructure to contemporary requirements of the raw materials market, and bilateral and multilateral agreements on energy security problems. The influence of the Russian Federation plays an important role in Poland’s energy security policy. Bilateral relations in the energy sector affect Poland's energy security and foreign policy. They also affect Poland's internal policy and, therefore, should be regarded as crucial for the Polish national interest. The research problem of the paper what author used is: How and by what means, meth-ods, techniques, and forms does the Russian Federation influence Poland's energy security and what consequences does this have for our country? The aim of the paper is to present the state of Poland's energy security and the desirable prospects in the relations with the Russian Federation in the context of natural gas and crude oil supplies. The paper uses such research tools as analysis, synthesis, comparison, and inference to determine Poland’s current energy.

DID THE US SHALE OIL REVOLUTION RUIN OIL INDUSTRY STOCK MARKET RETURNS?

The stock market performance of the US oil industry is evaluated against a combination of benchmarks before and after the US shale oil revolution, in order to ascertain whether the increase in US shale oil production had an adverse impact on oil industry stock market returns. In 2014, the dynamic of the global crude oil supply-demand situation was such that the oil price fell because of the increased US crude oil production. Saudi Arabia and the other major producers preferred to have low oil prices, at least temporarily, in order to penalize the US shale oil players. Any oil price increase since then is seen as leading to an increase in US crude oil supply which then further reduces oil prices. The oil industry outperformed the benchmarks prior to the ramp up of US crude oil production led by the shale oil revolution, but the industry underperformed the benchmarks after these production increases. Hence, the US shale oil revolution did ruin the oil industry stock market returns. Several topics for discussion are included: The US Shale Oil Revolution; World Crude Oil Markets; Crude Oil Price Dynamics in the US; and Crude Oil Price Impacts on Oil Companies. Keywords: Shale Oil Revolution, Crude Oil Price, Oil and Gas Industry, Stock Market Returns JEL Classifications: Q32, Q41, Q43 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.9171

Comparison of Crude Oil Supply Cost Between Ship Rental and Single Point Mooring

Today, the need for fuel oil and gas are increasing. Fuel oil and gas is the energy needed by the public to support daily activities. To meet the people needs for fuel oil and gas, the company is not only focused on the Indonesian people needs. Production principle carried out is make to stock, so the company makes direct purchase of imported and domestic crude oil and through government entitlement. Currently this fuel oil company has a problem that is quite urgent because the currency value is related to the crude oil procurement. This causes the profit obtained by the company is not optimal. So it needs to be evaluated relates to crude oil procurement policies in the company. As a result, the total costs spent by GP ship rental policy is $ 53.572.938, but by using the SPM (Single Point Mooring) method will save around $ 114.300.205 for 4 years scale or $ 28.575.051 in a year.

Crude oil price analysis and forecasting: A perspective of “new triangle”

Abstract In this paper, the new structural characteristics and core influencing factors of the crude oil prices are summarized based on previous representative research results. Firstly, a newly dynamic Bayesian structural time series model (DBSTS) is developed to investigate the oil prices. In particular, Google trend is introduced as an indicator to reflect the impact of search data on the oil price. Secondly, the spike and slab method is employed to select core influence factors. Finally, the Bayesian model average (BMA) is utilized to predict the oil price. Experimental results confirm that the supply and demand of global crude oil and the financial market are still the main factors affecting the oil price. Furthermore, Google trend can reflect the changes in the crude oil price to a certain extent. Moreover, the impact of shale oil production on the oil price is gradually increasing, yet remains relatively small. In addition, the DBSTS model can identify turning points in historical data (such as the 2008 financial crisis). Finally, the findings suggest the DBSTS model has good predictive capabilities in short-term prediction, making it suitable for analyzing the crude oil prices.

Oil price regimes and their role in price diversions from market fundamentals

Speculative bubbles, market governance and property rights are thought to affect oil prices, but their timing and magnitude are uncertain. Here, we quantify these effects using econometric techniques that identify periods between 1938:1 and 2018:3 (denoting year:quarter) when prices strayed from the levels implied by market fundamentals. We identify nine price regimes that are associated with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries gaining control over the marginal supply of crude oil, US energy legislation, a precautionary demand shock, the Arab Spring and speculative bubbles. These bubbles raised real oil prices by US$14.31 and US$4.65 per barrel in 2007:4–2008:3 and 2010:1–2011:1, respectively, which transferred US$42.8 billion from US consumers to US oil producers and US$87.4 billion from the US economy to oil exporting nations. Conversely, some sharp changes, such as the price decline associated with the Asian financial crisis, can be explained by market fundamentals. Oil prices are thought to be affected by speculation but the exact impact of speculation on price is not known. Kaufmann and Connelly quantify this effect and identify its beneficiaries by building a price model based on supply and demand, market fundamentals and associating deviations with historical geopolitical events.