Bank Credit Supply Research Articles

International spillovers of monetary policy: Evidence from France and Italy

In this paper we provide empirical evidence on the impact of US and UK monetary policy changes on credit supply of banks operating in Italy and France over the period 2000–2015, exploring the existence of an international bank lending channel. Exploiting bank balance sheet heterogeneity, we find that monetary policy tightening abroad leads to a reduction of credit supply at home, in particular for US monetary policy changes. Our results show that USD funding plays an important role in the transmission mechanism, especially for French banks which rely to a larger extent on USD funding. We also show that banks adjust their euro and foreign currency lending differently, thus implying that funding sources in different currencies are not perfect substitutes. This is especially the case when tensions in currency swap markets are high, thus resulting in costly cross-currency funding.

The Effect of State Solvency on Bank Values and Credit Supply: Evidence from State Pension Cut Legislation

We find the financial condition of states impacts bank credit supply through their municipal bond holdings. In particular, we treat sudden political and statutory actions during the 2011 union bargaining rights debates in Wisconsin and Ohio as exogenous shocks to state solvency. We show bank valuations and municipal bond spreads adjust to the announcements, and, over longer horizons, a new lending channel linked to state solvency emerges, whereby banks supply credit as municipal bond appreciations free up capital.

CONTROLLING THE IMPLEMENTATION PRUDENTIAL PRINCIPLES IN BANKING LANDING BY FINANCIAL SERVICES AUTHORITY

Sources of collection of banking funds collected from the community are then distributed to the community in the form of credit. If the amount of funds disbursed by the bank to the community through credit are not refundable in accordance with the term has been agreed, the credit quality can be classified as non-performing loans or often referred to as Non Performing Loan (NPL). The impact of high NPL levels is disrupted by the liquidity of each banking institution.Research Objectives are: (1) To analyze the supervision of the application of prudential principles in the provision of bank credit conducted by the Financial Services Authority under the Act Number 21 of 2011 on the Financial Services Authority. (2) To analyze the inhibiting factors in supervising the application of prudential principles in the provision of bank credit by the Financial Services Authority. Furthermore, this research uses research method with normative juridical approach, that is by collecting secondary data that is literature materials, as a technique to get information through tracing legislation and other regulations in accordance with research problems and then the data is analyzed by qualitative juridical .The results of the research show that (1) Supervision of prudential principles in the provision of bank credit conducted by the Financial Services Authority under the Act Number 21 of 2011 concerning Financial Services Authority shall be conducted by Compliance Based Supervision (CBS), that is Compliance Monitoring banks against provisions relating to the operation and management of banks in the past in order to ensure that the bank has been operating and managed properly and properly according to prudential principles. In addition, Risk Based Supervision (RBS) is implemented, ie supervision using risk-based strategies and methodologies that enable bank supervisors to detect significant risks early and take appropriate and timely monitoring actions. (2) Inhibiting factors in supervising the application of prudential principles in the provision of bank credit conducted by the Financial Services Authority is one of the most important that customers often in providing data to the Bank inaccurate and the existence of the prospective customer's delay in completing the file submission of credit. Keywords: Supervision, Financial Services Authority, Prudential Banking Principles, Credit

Credit-supply shocks and firm productivity in Italy

The Italian economy has been struggling with low productivity growth and bank balance sheet strains. This paper examines the implications for firm productivity of adverse shocks to bank lending in Italy, using a novel identification scheme and loan-level data on syndicated lending. We exploit the heterogeneous loan exposure of Italian banks to foreign borrowers in distress, and find that a negative shock to bank credit supply reduces firms’ loan growth, investment, capital-to-labor ratio, and productivity. The transmission from changes in credit supply to firm productivity relates to labor market rigidities, which delay or distort the adjustment of firms’ desired labor and capital allocations, and thereby reduce firms’ productivity. Effects are stronger for firms with higher capital intensity and external financial dependence.

Has the Bank Lending Channel Changed in Turkey after the Crisis in 2001?

This contribution investigates the role of Turkish banks in the monetary transmission mechanism, focusing on bank lending channel, over the time horizon 2002-2016. This study deploys a Bayesian stochastic frontier approach for our estimates. Literature shows that bank specific characteristics (e.g., liquidity) can have a significant impact on the provision of credit as well as changes in a bank’s loan portfolio, alongside the banks main characteristics (e.g., loan and receivable). Hence, this study enriches the standard analysis by evaluating Turkish banks technical and allocative efficiencies as well as the impact on the monetary policy stance for the Central Turkish Bank. Specifically, this research considers the sub-periods 2002-2008 and 2008-2016 to examine how monetary policy shocks influenced the credit and lending channel functioning in Turkey, especially after the major restructuring programme in 2000-2001. Given our unique dataset, empirical evidence suggests cross-sectional heterogeneity in bank response to monetary policy changes during 2002-2016. Based on the results of both pre- and post-crisis periods, the study finds that an operative bank lending channel has been existing in Turkey. Particularly, it emerges that monetary policy changes on bank credit supply affects bank differently based on their characteristics. Moreover, our findings confirm that banks with weaker capital positions, greater dependence on market funding and non-interest sources of income restricted the loan supply more strongly in case of any monetary shocks. Eventually, our results are in line with Akinci et al. (2013) who found that domestic banks are unexpectedly more efficient than foreign banks.

Switching to bonds when loans are scarce: Evidence from four U.S. crises

To what extent do public firms switch to bonds when bank credit supply falls, and how do their real outcomes compare to those of other firms? Examining four U.S. crises during 1988–2011 shows that only 8.4% of debt-receiving firms broke their reliance on loans and switched to bonds. These were high quality firms that, despite incurring large costs, did not suffer significantly more in output, investment, and employment than predominantly bond-issuing firms. Most firms either received loans, or no debt, and fared significantly worse. Thus, public firms do not widely substitute bonds for loans, remaining vulnerable to bank health fluctuations.

Credit Supply and Productivity Growth

We study the impact of bank credit supply on firm output and productivity. By exploiting a matched firm-bank database which covers all the credit relationships of Italian corporations over more than a decade, we measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to firms' credit availability. We use our data to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions and show that an expansion in credit supply leads firms to increase both their inputs and their output (value added and revenues) for a given level of inputs. Our estimates imply that a credit crunch will be followed by a productivity slowdown, as experienced by most OECD countries after the Great Recession. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 could account for about a quarter of the observed decline in Italy's total factor productivity growth. The results are robust to an alternative measurement of credit supply shocks that uses the 2007-08 interbank market freeze as a natural experiment to control for assortative matching between borrowers and lenders. Finally, we investigate possible channels: access to credit fosters IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and the adoption of superior management practices.

The heterogeneous response of domestic sales and exports to bank credit shocks

This paper analyzes how bank credit affects foreign and domestic sales. We use Italian matched bank-firm data and exploit bank mergers and acquisitions as a novel instrument to establish a causal link. We find that shocks to the supply of bank credit induce exporters to decrease their export flows, without affecting their domestic sales. On the other hand, non-exporters react by reducing their domestic sales. We argue that these differences are not driven by the kind of flow, but by the kind of firm: exporters and non-exporters differ in how they can react when facing credit constraints.

The consequences of liquidity imbalance: When net lenders leave interbank markets

The level as well as fluency of capital supply on the interbank market is crucial for banking sector liquidity. However, the dominance of individual players on this market leads to liquidity imbalance and, thus, might increase the risk for other banks. We test how different bank exposures in interbank market translates into other bank liquidity risk and credit supply. To this end, we use 207 bank exits from interbank markets between 1997 and 2013 in 52 emerging and developed countries. We find that the withdrawal of a bank with high net exposure on interbank market leads to a statistically significant drop in the liquidity position of the remaining banks. The effect is also economically significant. Finally, we find that a liquidity imbalance adversely affects the bank credit supply. Our findings suggest that the consequences are more severe for banks heavily relying on the local interbank market, for emerging countries and surprisingly in pre-crisis periods.

Lending implications of U.S. bank stress tests: Costs or benefits?

Abstract The U.S. bank stress tests aim to improve financial system stability. However, they may also affect bank credit supply. We formulate and test opposing hypotheses about these effects. Our findings are consistent with the Risk Management Hypothesis, under which stress-tested banks reduce credit supply−particularly to relatively risky borrowers−to decrease their credit risk. The findings do not support the Moral Hazard Hypothesis, in which these banks expand credit supply−particularly to relatively risky borrowers that pay high spreads−increasing their risk. Results are generally stronger for safer banks, banks that passed the stress tests, and the earlier stress tests.

Contagious Effects of a Political Intervention in Debt Contracts: Evidence Using Loan-Level Data

Using an unexpected government regulation that restricted the ability of microfinance institutions to recover loans in one Indian state, I examine whether this intervention affected bank loan performance. The bank loan delinquency rate significantly increased as a result. In response, the ex post bank credit supply declined by more than half. For identification, I compare loans from branches located in regions subject to this intervention with loans from nearby branches of the same bank located in regions not subject to the intervention. I conclude that political interventions in credit markets could have significant spillover effects.

Bank Credit Supply and Firm Innovation

We analyze the causal effect of the credit supply shock to banks induced by interbank market disruptions in the recent financial crisis 2008/2009 on their business customers’ innovation activity. Using a matched bank-firm data set for Germany, we find that having relations with a more severely affected bank seriously hampers firms’ current innovation activities due to funding shortages. Furthermore, we find that firms with a relationship to a less severely affected bank are more likely to initiate new product and process innovations and to reallocate human resources to innovation during the financial crisis.

Rethinking Capital Regulation: The Case for Dividend Prudential Target

The paper investigates the effectiveness of dividend-based macroprudential rules in complementing capital requirements to promote bank soundness and sustained lending over the cycle. First, some evidence on bank dividends and earnings in the euro area is presented. When shocks hit their profits, banks adjust retained earnings to smooth dividends. This generates bank equity and credit supply volatility. Then, a DSGE model with key financial frictions and a banking sector is developed to assess the virtues of what shall be called dividend prudential targets. Welfare-maximizing dividend-based macroprudential rules are shown to have important properties: (i) they are effective in smoothing the financial and the business cycle by means of less volatile bank retained earnings, (ii) they induce welfare gains associated to a Basel III-type of capital regulation, (iii) they mainly operate through their cyclical component, ensuring that long-run dividend payouts remain unaffected, (iv) they are flexible enough so as to allow bank managers to optimally deviate from the target (conditional on the payment of a sanction), and (v) they are associated to a sanctions regime that acts as an insurance scheme for the real economy.

International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Evidence from France and Italy

In this paper we provide empirical evidence on the impact of US and UK monetary policy changes on credit supply of banks operating in Italy and France over the period 2000-2015, exploring the existence of an international bank lending channel. Exploiting bank balance sheet heterogeneity, we find that monetary policy tightening abroad leads to a reduction of credit supply at home, in particular for US monetary policy changes. Our results show that USD funding plays an important role in the transmission mechanism, especially for French banks which rely to a larger extent on USD funding. We also show that banks adjust their euro and foreign currency lending differently, thus implying that funding sources in different currencies are not perfect substitutes. This is especially the case when tensions in currency swap markets are high, thus resulting in costly cross-currency funding.

International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Evidence from France and Italy

In this paper we provide empirical evidence on the impact of US and UK monetary policy changes on credit supply of banks operating in Italy and France over the period 2000–2015, exploring the existence of an international bank lending channel based on the reliance on funding sources located in these two countries or denominated in their currency. We find that US monetary policy tightening leads to a reduction of lending to the domestic economy in both France and Italy, and this is mainly driven by banks that relied more intensely on USD funding markets. Conversely, we find that both French and Italian banks are isolated from UK monetary policy shocks, as most of their UK funding is denominated in Euro, despite being larger than funding from the US. JEL Classification: E51, F30, F42, G20

Contagious Effects of a Political Intervention in Debt Contracts: Evidence Using Loan-Level Data

Using an unexpected government regulation that restricted the ability of micro-finance institutions to recover loans in one Indian state, we examine whether this intervention impacted bank loan performance. The bank loan delinquency rate increased significantly as a result. In response, the ex-post bank credit supply declined by more than half. For identification, we compare loans from branches located in regions subject to this intervention with loans from nearby branches of the same bank located in regions not subject to the intervention. We conclude that political interventions in credit markets could have significant spillover effects.

Bank Credit Supply and Shadow Mortgage Growth

With a novel application of a simple supply-demand decomposition methodology to residential mortgage markets, I analyze the role of bank credit supply, shadow lender’s own supply, and local demand in lending growth by shadow mortgage companies. I show that shadow lending grew faster in counties exposed to increases of bank credit supply. At the same time, shadow firms’ own supply shocks explain more variation in shadow lending growth than bank supply shocks. These results suggest that shadow lenders have operational advantages over banks, but are also connected to them, perhaps via warehouse lines of credit.

Aggregate Implications of Corporate Debt Choices

This article studies the transmission of financial shocks in a model where corporate credit is intermediated via both banks and bond markets. In choosing between bank and bond financing, firms trade-off the greater flexibility of banks in case of financial distress against the lower marginal costs of large bond issuances. I find that, in response to a contraction in bank credit supply, aggregate bond issuance in the corporate sector increases, but not enough to avoid a decline in aggregate borrowing and investment. Keeping leverage constant while retiring bank debt would expose firms to a higher risk of financial distress; they offset this by reducing total borrowing. A calibration of the model to the Great Recession indicates that this precautionary mechanism can account for one-third of the total decline in investment by firms with access to bond markets.

FOUR EYES PRINCIPLE DALAM PENGELOLAAN RISIKO KREDIT PADA BANK

In order to implement the four eyes principle in the provision of bank credit there should be a separation of functions between the analysis, approval, and credit administration. The separation of functions is done in order to secure the credits begin the loan process until the credits were disbursed, even banks should separate settlement function of problem loans with a function that decides lending. This is done in order to avoid any conflict of interest between a bank and its clients' interests debtors. Due to the four eyes principle applied in lending may cause a credit crunch. Problem loans will affect the profitability and solvency of banks that ends decrease the soundness of the bank. Bank may be subject to administrative sanctions and criminal sanctions when the Member of the Board of Commissioners, Board of Directors, or bank employees who deliberately do not implement the measures necessary to ensure adherence to the bank of the provisions of this Act and the provisions of other legislation applicable to banks.

Bank Structure and Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from Emerging Markets During the 2008 Financial Crisis

There is ample evidence on how bank structure (bank concentration, development of the banking sector, and presence of foreign banks) is related to credit supply and economic growth. However, little is known about how bank structure affects credit supply when the banking sector itself is in crisis and thus credit supply is impaired. The paucity of studies in examining the relationship between bank structure and credit supply during financial crisis is probably due to the complication that bank structure itself is significantly related to financial crisis. In this study, we avoid the endogeneity problem caused by the correlation between bank structure and financial crisis by studying the stock price performance of firms in 20 emerging countries during the 2008 financial crisis because the financial hardship in these countries was caused exogenously by the crisis originated from the U.S. We find firms that are more dependent on external financing tend to suffer greater stock price declines. However, the severity of the decline is significantly smaller for firms in countries with higher level of bank concentration, greater advancement in banking sector, and higher level of foreign bank presence. The results suggest that bank concentration, bank development, and foreign bank presence all contribute to the alleviation of liquidity crunch caused by crisis transmitted from other countries.