Supply-demand Relationship Research Articles

Unveiling the changes of carbon emissions along supply chains: Drivers and sustainable mitigation strategies

China's annual carbon emissions decreased year by year during 2013–2016 and increased after 2016. Such fluctuation prompts important questions about the factors that drove the decrease and increase, and the desired pathway(s) to sustain a continuous reduction. With the consideration of supply-demand relationships, we quantitatively evaluate the socioeconomic drivers of carbon emission changes along supply chains. Here we find that from a supply perspective, industrial adjustment has negative impacts on the emission reduction of service-driven paths. For paths involving the electricity-generation sector, the adjustment of primary input structure has positive effects on path-level emission reduction (since 2007). The construction sector can adjust its consumption structure to help accelerate the system's low-carbon transition. For the supply- and demand-oriented paths, the mitigation effects of emission intensity will weaken if more sectors are involved in production activities. Further emission reductions may rely on both reducing emission intensity and minimizing the utilization of deep-processed products.Synopsis: An extensive path-and layer-related decomposition analysis may have significant implications for fast-growing economies in pursuing carbon neutrality.

Guiding and constraining reclamation for coastal zone through identification of response thresholds for ecosystem services supply–demand relationships

AbstractEnhancing the understanding and management of ecosystem services (ESs) supply and demand under the influence of global change is crucial for sustaining human well‐being and promoting sustainable development. However, the comprehension of changes in ecosystem service dynamics in the face of complex human disturbances remains limited. This study focuses on four representative ESs in the northern Liaodong Bay, a typical global estuary wetland, to elucidate alterations in the supply and demand of these ESs and comprehend the impact mechanisms arising from reclamation activities. The findings reveal the following key insights: between 1993 and 2020, the supply and demand for water yield disparity became increasingly pronounced, while the equilibrium between supply and demand for carbon storage shifted from surplus to balance. In contrast, the excess supply–demand of food supply and landscape esthetics remained relatively consistent. This study delves deeper into the non‐linear relationship between reclamation activities and ESs supply–demand relationships, with each ecosystem service exhibiting distinct patterns. As reclamation intensity rises, the supply–demand ratio of ESs exhibits varying trends: food supply and carbon storage demonstrate an inverted U‐shaped relationship, water yield follows a U‐shaped pattern, and landscape esthetics progressively decline. By identifying reclamation thresholds, different management strategies should be applied to areas exceeding and falling below these thresholds, with constraints and guidance being necessary for the former and the latter, respectively. These findings advance our understanding of ESs dynamics in the context of human‐driven changes and provide practical implications for sustainable ecosystem management in coastal areas.

Multi-objective optimization of regional integrated energy system matrix modeling considering exergy analysis and user satisfaction

Integrated energy system achieves the collaborative optimization of different energy forms such as electricity/gas/heat/cold, and it is an important strategic development direction in the international energy field in the future. However, with the development of smart grid technology and the increase of renewable energy penetration, it needs more flexible load to adapt to the changing energy supply–demand relationship. Considering the impact of user-side load fluctuations on the system, this paper establishes a two-tier closed-loop system model formed by users and the market. The upper-layer is based on the user’s perspective. A comprehensive user satisfaction model is established by the radar chart area method and consumer preference theory. The lower-layer is based on the market perspective. It proposes an improved layering matrix Energy Hub model and conducts the regional integrated energy system exergy efficiency evaluation study. Then, taking economy, carbon emission and exergy efficiency as objective functions, a multi-objective optimization model is constructed. Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms-II is applied to solve the model, and the output parameters is a Pareto front surface. A combination weighting TOPSIS method is used to select a compromise solution of multi-objective optimization from the optimal solution set. Compared with the primary energy utilization efficiency as the objective function, the exergy efficiency reduces the system cost by 8.64%. Finally, the multi-objective optimization solution based on different user satisfaction is obtained. Through the analysis of the examples, compared with the original load, the introduction of the upper-layer user satisfaction model reduces the system cost by 2.8%. The reasonable setting of user satisfaction and load adjustment amount can improve the economy of system, which verifies the effectiveness of the two-tier closed-loop system based on user satisfaction model.

Continuously Producing Highly Concentrated and Pure Acetic Acid Aqueous Solution via Direct Electroreduction of CO2.

It is crucial to achieve continuous production of highly concentrated and pure C2 chemicals through the electrochemical CO2 reduction reaction (eCO2RR) for artificial carbon cycling, yet it has remained unattainable until now. Despite one-pot tandem catalysis (dividing the eCO2RR to C2 into two catalytical reactions of CO2 to CO and CO to C2) offering the potential for significantly enhancing reaction efficiency, its mechanism remains unclear and its performance is unsatisfactory. Herein, we selected different CO2-to-CO catalysts and CO-to-acetate catalysts to construct several tandem catalytic systems for the eCO2RR to acetic acid. Among them, a tandem catalytic system comprising a covalent organic framework (PcNi-DMTP) and a metal-organic framework (MAF-2) as CO2-to-CO and CO-to-acetate catalysts, respectively, exhibited a faradaic efficiency of 51.2% with a current density of 410 mA cm-2 and an ultrahigh acetate yield rate of 2.72 mmol m-2 s-1 under neutral conditions. After electrolysis for 200 h, 1 cm-2 working electrode can continuously produce 20 mM acetic acid aqueous solution with a relative purity of 95+%. Comprehensive studies revealed that the performance of tandem catalysts is influenced not only by the CO supply-demand relationship and electron competition between the two catalytic processes in the one-pot tandem system but also by the performance of the CO-to-C2 catalyst under diluted CO conditions.

How Can the Balance of Green Infrastructure Supply and Demand Build an Ecological Security Pattern

The escalating degradation of urban eco-environments has underscored the significance of ecological security in sustainable urban development. Green infrastructure bridges green spaces in cities and increases ecosystem connectivity, thereby optimizing urban ecological security patterns. This study uses Nanjing as a case study and adopts a research paradigm that involves identifying ecological sources, constructing resistance surfaces, and subsequently extracting corridors within the ecological security pattern. This method amalgamates the evaluation of green infrastructure supply and demand, leading to the identification of both ecological corridors and nodes. The findings reveal that while the supply of green infrastructure in Nanjing is low in the city center and high in the suburbs, demand is high in the central area and low in the periphery, indicating a spatial mismatch between supply and demand. Ecological corridors and nodes are categorized into the core, important, and general levels based on their centrality and areas of supply–demand optimization. The connectivity, supply capacity, and supply–demand relationship of green infrastructure in Nanjing have been enhanced to varying degrees through the ecological security pattern optimization. The results of this study can serve as a decision-making reference for optimizing green infrastructure network patterns and enhancing urban ecological security.

Seasonal variations in ecosystem service supply and demand based on the SWAT model: A case study in the Guanting Reservoir Basin, China

The match and mismatch between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs) are closely related to watershed sustainable development. Previous studies have mainly focused on annual or interdecadal matching relationships, and little is known about the seasonal variations of the ES supply–demand relationship. Based on the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and statistical data, we took the Guanting Reservoir Basin, a transitional ecosystem from semi-arid areas to arid areas, as the study area to analyze the supply and demand of water provisioning services and soil conservation services and identified their matching relationship on the seasonal scale. The results showed that the water provisioning services was in short supply, with a supply–demand ratio of 0.81, whereas the supply of soil conservation services was in excess of demand. In terms of seasonal variation, the mismatch of water provisioning services was particularly severe in winter, followed by that in spring. The mismatch of soil conservation services was relatively severe in winter, followed by that in summer. Such mismatches imply that we must pay attention to the misallocation of resources caused by seasonal variations. It is crucial that policy-makers consider the role of reservoirs and water transfer in providing seasonal water sources for sustaining water resources in transitional areas, and optimize land management to prevent the aggravation of soil erosion in winter.

Linear and non-linear dynamics of ecosystem services supply, demand, and mismatches across a rapidly urbanizing region

Achieving the sustainability of coupled human-nature systems requires matching the ecosystem services (ES) provided by nature to the needs of society. However, most of the current studies on ES supply–demand relationships focus on spatial mismatches and rarely consider their temporal dynamics. In this study, the year-by-year dynamics (2001–2020) of 12 ESs at multiple spatial scales were investigated by using space–time interaction (STI) analysis, fuzzy C-mean clustering, and emerging hotspot analysis. We found that (1) three forms of temporal dynamics of ES indicators can be identified, including linear dynamics, fluctuating dynamics, and regime shift dynamics. (2) Temporal dynamic patterns of the same ES were not consistent across all counties, showing great spatial heterogeneity. The temporal dynamics of each ES type at each county were spatially explicitly clustered into linear dynamics, fluctuating dynamics, and regime shift dynamics with different means. (3) The ES supply–demand relationships can shift between supply–demand balance, excess supply, and excess demand when the temporal dynamics of ES supply do not match with that of ES demand. Our results suggest that temporal dynamic analysis in ecological restoration effectiveness assessment can help to avoid erroneous results compared to considering only pre- and post-policy ES changes. The identified emerging hotspots of excess supply and excess demand can help decision-makers more accurately identify priority locations for management.

Supporting decarbonization through vehicle rightsizing, automation, and ride-splitting

Vehicle automation and smartphone app-based ride-splitting are commonly discussed topics in the transportation literature. While these technologies have been examined for their role in transportation decarbonization through simulation study, the motivation for such work is rarely made explicit. In this commentary, we provide a motivation for research in this area based on our own simulation research, as well as land use and vehicle operational factors. Specifically, land use factors such as density and the speed of its adjustment make traditional transit operations using large vehicles cost-prohibitive in most U.S. communities (and many other communities around the world). Automation and ride-splitting technologies may offer digitized transportation solutions that can match vehicle size to local land development density and passenger demand. In addition, we highlight a difference in the supply-demand relationship for freight transportation that causes additional challenges for decarbonizing that sector. Finally, we emphasize that fleet ownership is key to ensuring timely vehicle fleet turnover as safer and more efficient technologies enter the market.

Climate risk performance and returns integration of Chinese listed energy companies

Traditional energy and new energy stock returns are becoming more closely related under the energy transition constraint. In this paper, the core correlation between traditional energy stock returns and new energy stock returns in China is portrayed using the minimum spanning tree (MST) approach and the integration characteristics of energy companies are dynamically analyzed. On this basis, we identify the impact of climate factors on the integration of energy markets by constructing a GARCH-MIDAS model with three dimensions: climate concern, climate physical risk, and climate policy. We find that returns are more likely to be transmitted within traditional energy industries and new energy industries, and firms with the same characteristics tend to form clusters. In a dynamic context, the degree of energy system integration has significant time-varying characteristics and is susceptible to unforeseen events, market policies, and supply-demand relationships. In addition, there is heterogeneity in the effect of climate concern on the integration between traditional energy and new energy markets, and the effects of both climate physical risk and climate policy on the integration of the energy system are significantly negative.

How does urbanization impact the supply–demand relationship of agroecosystem services? Insights from farmland loss in the Huaihe River Basin, China

China’s urbanization has gradually become the dominant factor in farmland loss, but it remains unclear how urbanization impacts the supply–demand relationship of agroecosystem services at different rates of farmland loss, which in turn poses new challenges to the ecological security of farmland. Taking the Huaihe River Basin as a case, this paper analyzes farmland loss from 2000 to 2020, as well as changes in the supply–demand relationship of four types of agroecosystem services: food production, socio-economic security, carbon sequestration, and soil conservation, revealing the driving mechanisms of urbanization on the supply–demand relationship of agroecosystem services in sub-regions with different rates of farmland loss. The results show that: (1) A total of 13588.11 km2 of farmland was converted to construction land from 2000 to 2020, accounting for 75.62 % of the total amount of farmland converted to different land types, and 95.57 % of the total amount of farmland converted to construction land. (2) There was a surplus supply of grain production services and socio-economic security services, while there was a deficit in the supply of carbon sequestration services, and a balance in the supply–demand of soil conservation services. (3) The matching degree of supply–demand for agroecosystem services was lower in the Rapid Loss Area compared to the Medium Loss Area and Slow Loss Area. (4) Urbanization was divided into population, economic, and spatial urbanization. The supply–demand relationships of agroecosystem services were impacted greatly by spatial urbanization in the Rapid Loss Area and by economic urbanization in the Medium Loss Area and Slow Loss Area.

Assessing grassland cultural ecosystem services supply and demand for promoting the sustainable realization of grassland cultural values

Grasslands deliver essential provisioning and regulatory ecosystem services, concomitantly with indispensable cultural services that merit profound consideration. However, grassland cultural ecosystem services (GCES) face a conspicuous knowledge lacuna due to the lack of a unified research framework and quantitative methodology. This study endeavors to fill this gap by quantifying the potential supply and actual demand of GCES, concurrently scrutinizing spatial congruencies and disparities between GCES supply and demand in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR), China. To achieve this, we integrated social survey data, Point of Interest (POI) data, social media data, the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) model and GIS Getis-Ord Gi* statistical analysis. Our analysis unveiled grid-scale spatial patterns of GCES supply and demand, furnishing a nuanced high-low ranking of GCES. It transpired that scenic travel holds the highest potential supply of GCES with a high-value area proportion of 46.0 %, while grassland recuperation ranks the lowest. Notably, road accessibility emerged as the most crucial factor influencing GCES patterns. Furthermore, we observed a substantial misalignment in the GCES supply-demand relationship, with 65.99 % of IMAR experiencing excess supply compared to demand and only 20.66 % achieving equilibrium. At a 95 % significance level, hot spots (excess supply) and cold spots (excess demand) accounted for 26.03 % and 22 %, respectively. We propose targeted suggestions that regions with oversupply of GCES should channel efforts toward augmenting road accessibility, whereas regions grappling with excess demand should prioritize the judicious allocation of resources to avert surpassing the environmental carrying capacity. Our study furnished insights for decision-makers to formulate sustainable development plans pertaining to grassland culture.

A Study on Collaborative Governance of Tourism Default ---- Analysis Based on Three-way Deductive Evolutionary Game Theory

With the opening up of the domestic epidemic and the tourism heatwave, hotel default behaviors have emerged one after another. With the increasing exposure of default issues, the contradictions between tourists and businesses, tourists and the government, and government and businesses have become increasingly prominent, and have once become the focus of social attention. This article fully considers the regulation and supply-demand relationship of stakeholders in the tourism industry in environmental regulations and constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model between the government, businesses, and tourists. It analyzes the strategic evolution paths of each participant and the factors that affect their evolution. The research results indicate that the enthusiasm of government regulation is a key factor in solving the problem of default, and the fluctuations in its behavioral strategies simultaneously affect the behavior of tourists and businesses; Consumer rights protection is another key factor in promoting compliance behavior among businesses; The probability of merchants choosing compliant behavior reaches its maximum when the government and tourists work together; In the process of collaborative governance, the government can effectively suppress the motivation of merchants to adopt default pricing by adopting active regulatory measures such as increasing the amount of punishment and compensation. However, more importantly, it can improve consumers' willingness to protect their rights by reducing the cost of tourists' rights protection and establishing appropriate reward systems, making up for the lack of government regulation.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of flood regulation service under the joint impacts of climate change and Urbanization: A case study in Baiyangdian Lake Basin, China

Estimating the supply–demand relationship’s future dynamics and trend of Flood Regulation Service (FRS) is important for preventing flood risks and choose an appropriate future development path. Less attention has been given to assessing the future trends in this relationship under the joint influence of climate change and urbanization. This paper aims to quantify future trends in the FRS supply–demand relationship under the joint impacts of climate change and urbanization. To this end, we took the Baiyangdian Lake Basin as an example and developed a “Climate Change-Urbanization-FRS supply and demand” framework by combining future climate scenarios from the ScenarioMIP (Scenario Model Intercomparison Project) dataset and socioeconomic data from the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) to estimate the FRS supply and demand dynamics during the period from 2020 to 2050. The results show that the framework has a reasonable ability to estimate the FRS supply–demand relationship. The correlation coefficients between estimated supply–demand ratios and the historical values exceeded 0.9. The average FRS supply–demand ratio among the four scenarios shows a significantly downward trend between 2020 and 2050. The FRS is expected to decrease by 0.159 (36.6 %), resulting in the imbalanced area increasing from 38.3 km2 (4.1 % of the whole basin) to 11049.7 km2 (36.2 %). We believe that although urbanization is the dominant factor contributing to the intensified imbalance trend (with a contribution of 71.2 %), influences from climate change also cannot be ignored (with a contribution of 28.8 %). Therefore, adaptation actions to climate change should be actively taken to reduce urban flood risks in the future.

Evaluation of ecosystem services budget based on ecosystem services flow: A case study of Hangzhou Bay area

Ecosystem services (ESs) flow, the spatial transfer of ESs from supply to demand, is critical but remains underexplored. Traditional studies often quantify ESs flow by crudely overlaying supply-demand, which lacks authenticity. This work develops a simulative model based on the flow-medium-path agent to simulate and quantify ESs flow, and subsequently evaluate regional ESs budget by incorporating ESs flow, because ESs aren't static but could flow to remote area, thereby altering the supply-demand relationship. Three prominent ESs, crop production (CP), water yield (WY), and carbon sequestration (CS) in Hangzhou Bay area were selected as cases. The results show: (1) a noticeable mismatch between ESs supply and demand; (2) ESs flow appears diverse features, e.g., the WY flow is single-directional and can only deliver to the downstream, determined by the topography; (3) Traditional ESs budget reveals the number of towns as supply exceeding demand for CP, WY, and CS is 313, 411, and 171. Contrastively, regional final budget considering ESs flow suggests that is 202, 581, and 0 as supply-demand balanced, indicating the ecological state is altered by integrating ESs flow into ESs budget evaluation. This study contributes to the researches on ESs comprehensive evaluation, ESs flow quantification, and ecological strategies references.

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Water Ecological Restoration Based on the Relationship between the Supply and Demand of Ecological Products—A Case Study of the Yellow River Delta

The imbalance between the supply and demand of ecological products between society and ecosystems is an important cause of a series of water ecological problems, and water ecological restoration projects aim to improve the above supply–demand relationship by means of inputs from the social side. For this reason, this paper takes the Yellow River Delta region as an example to launch a study on the assessment of the effectiveness of water ecological restoration projects from the perspective of the supply and demand of ecological products. Specifically, the level of the supply and demand of ecological products, as well as the relationship between the supply and the demand in the studied area, were measured using the equivalent factor approach and the water footprint approach, and the effects of the Yellow River Delta hydro-ecological restoration project were assessed by integrating the following four metrics: land use, supply of ecological products (ecosystem services), demand for ecological products, and the relationship between the supply of and demand for ecological products. The results of this study show that although the hydro-ecological restoration project continues to replenish water resources in the Yellow River Delta region, and promotes the level of ecological product supply in the study area through the restoration of wetlands and water, the growing and excessive demand for ecological products in the study area still puts the local ecosystems at risk of degradation. In the future, the Yellow River Delta region should continue to control the scale of land for production and living on the supply side of ecological products and increase its investment in water ecological restoration, while establishing a highly efficient mode of ecological product development and utilization and a reasonable mechanism for the payment of ecological products on the demand side. In addition, the Yellow River Delta region needs to pay attention to the impacts of rising sea levels and other climatic problems on ecological restoration.

Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on the Supply and Demand Relationship of Water Provision Services in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) has undergone profound climate and land-use change. These transformations are anticipated to affect the availability of water resources, potentially causing substantial perturbations to the equilibrium between water availability and societal needs. Consequently, research is warranted to explore the ramifications of climate and land-use change on the water provision service, particularly their impacts on the delicate equilibrium between supply and demand. To quantify the water supply–demand relationship, this study introduces the water supply and demand index (WSDR). This study examines the impacts of climate and land-use change on the actual evapotranspiration, water yield, and WSDR in the YRB from 1995 to 2019. According to the results, the YRB experienced an increase in forest land by 4.72%, grassland by 1.71%, and a substantial surge of 595.36% in construction land; however, cropland witnessed a decrease of 5.95%. The climate exhibited a discernible wetting trend (3.38 mm/year, p < 0.01). The actual evapotranspiration significantly increased by 2.45 mm/year (p < 0.01), but this increase was not substantial enough to result in a decline in the water yield, since precipitation also increased. The annual water demand depth demonstrated a statistically significant increasing trend (0.13 mm/year, p < 0.01), but this increase was not sufficient to cause a decrease in the WSDR, since the water yield also increased (0.94 mm/year). Land use had a significantly negative effect on the water yield and WSDR, but this negative effect was offset by the positive effects of climate variability. At the basin scale, there exists a surplus of water resources (WSDR > 0). Nevertheless, regions grappling with water resource deficits (WSDR < 0) have witnessed an increase from 18% in 1995 to 26% in 2019. This indicates that the primary water resource problem in the YRB is the uneven spatial distribution of water resources. Hence, implementing spatial management strategies at larger scales may be instrumental in mitigating water scarcity in the region. These findings can serve as a valuable reference for the management of water resources, as well as for basin planning and construction.

Study on the Ecosystem Service Supply–Demand Relationship and Development Strategies in Mountains in Southwest China Based on Different Spatial Scales

Mountainous regions typically exhibit a strained relationship between humans and the land, with noticeable spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESS and ESD, respectively). ESS and ESD display varying characteristics at different spatial scales. Research on ESS and ESD at multiple scales can aid regional development and efficient ecosystem management. However, the current research focuses on ESS and neglects the ES characteristic changes at different scales. This study concentrates on the Hengduan Mountain region in southwest China. It evaluated ESS and ESD, analyzed the spatial matching relationship, and proposed a corresponding development strategy. The results demonstrated four key findings. First, ESS displayed an inverse spatial distribution on the two scales and was lower in the north and higher in the south at the raster scale. Over the period 2000–2020, ESS exhibited a pattern of initial increase, followed by a decrease, albeit with varying spatial patterns. Changes in land use primarily drove these ESS changes. Second, ESD increased from northwest to southeast on both scales and showed a rising trend over time. Third, at the grid scale, the low supply and low demand (L-L) region is primarily situated in the northwestern part, and it is crucial to prevent grassland degradation and manage grazing intensity. The low supply and high demand (L-H) region is located in the southeast, where the protection of cultivated land, along with comprehensive control of rocky desertification and debris flow, should be prioritized. High supply and low demand (H-L) are found in the northern mountain area, where paying attention to soil erosion control is essential. For areas with high supply and high demand (H-H) types, efforts should be directed toward maintaining forest habitat integrity. Fourth, on the county scale, L-H types should focus on realizing the ecosystem service value and implementing ecological agriculture. H-L counties can appropriately develop economic activities. Simultaneously, ecological compensation should be conducted among counties.

Decoupling evolution of economic activity and carbon transfer in China: A multi-level analysis from network perspective

Economic activities among multiple regions are always accompanied by carbon transfers. Analyzing coupling characteristics of economic activities and carbon transfer linkages based on the supply-demand relationships, can further reveal the networked structures of the multiregional interactions and common development trend of various industries, shedding light on carbon emission governance and high-quality development. This study advances novel coupling network models at the regional and industrial levels, and empirically analyzes the coupling characteristics in China based on the input-output data in 2012, 2015, and 2017. The findings reveal a noticeable decoupling process of economic activities and carbon transfers, but with distinct characteristics at the regional and industrial levels. The widening differences in coupling among provinces indicate increasing regional disparities. The decoupling process at the industrial level is primarily driven by the decreased connectivity in networked carbon transfers, instead of economic activities, reflecting the significant variations of industries’ low-carbon development. The carbon decoupling process is notably more pronounced in supply-demand chains associated with export as the final use, compared to those linked with capital formation and final consumption. Analysis of coupling characteristics and the identification of decoupling evolution process enhance our understanding of the relationship between economic activities and carbon transfer, and may provide valuable insights for prioritizing actions and achieving efficient carbon emission reduction.

A three-layer planning framework for regional integrated energy systems based on the quasi-quantum theory

With the rapid development in social informatization, more and more factors, such as regional economy, technological development, and people’s living needs, will affect the supply–demand relationship of regional integrated energy systems (RIES), which involve multiple energy forms. These factors turn the supply–demand relationship of an energy system into a nonlinear and time-varying chaotic system. This makes it difficult to predict and balance these relationships, which poses a huge challenge to the prediction, planning, operation, etc. Existing conventional methods attempt to quantify the prediction bias caused by various external environmental factors of energy systems and to weaken the uncertainty caused by multiple energy loads through random programming. However, uncertainty factors increase with the development of an energy system, thereby inreasing the requirements of such uncertainty quantification methods. Furthermore, in conventional methods, the prediction or planning decisions are often made by an observer while neglecting the impact of the observer’s decision-making behavior on prediction and planning. Therefore, this paper proposes a three-layer planning framework for to solve the above problems. This architecture includes quasi-quantum uncertainty periodic evaluation, stochastic planning based on information gap decision theory, and rolling planning based on model predictive control. First, we establish a quasi-quantum model of multi-energy system prediction error based on the quasi-quantum wave function model to qualitatively analyze prediction errors affected by uncertainty before and after planning. Simultaneously, combined with the evaluation model of the quasi-quantum potential energy function, a quasi-quantum uncertainty period evaluation model is proposed. Based on the minimum equivalent planning entropy, the planning cycle of multistage rolling planning is divided to minimize uncertainty. Second, the information gap decision theory is used to quantify the influence range of source and load uncertainty in the planning process and the multistage planning cycle is randomly planned. Then, the model predictive control method is used to control the actual error, and the planning strategy is changed in time to reduce the planning deviation caused by the prediction error. Finally, adopting a Beichen demonstration area in Tianjin, China, as a case study, the effectiveness of the proposed method in uncertainty analysis and long-term planning improvement is verified. The three-layer planning framework can improve the adaptability of the regional integrated energy system in the long-term planning process, and can timely adjust the planning scheme to cope with the impact of unpredictable uncertainties in the planning process.© 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the spatial pattern of supply-demand mismatches in ecosystem flood regulation service: A case study in Xiamen

Balancing the supply and demand of urban flood regulation services is crucial for refining flood management policies. Previous studies often employed coarse evaluation units and data limitations may constrained assessments of flood regulation service demand, while this study employs finer evaluation units and an integrated methodology using open data. Taking Xiamen as a case study, machine learning and a comprehensive multi-criteria evaluation model were used to assess flood regulation service demand, hydrological modeling was conducted to evaluate the service supply. Spatial supply-demand disparities were analyzed by the supply-demand ratio. Results reveal pronounced spatial mismatches between flood regulation service supply and demand in Xiamen, with supply deficient units primarily concentrated in intense constructed areas, specifically Jimei, Huli, and Siming districts. The transferability of the method is examined, the correlation between supply-demand relationships and land use is analyzed, demonstrating the applicability of the methods in supporting similar studies in poor-data areas. The methodology could thereby facilitate spatial planning optimization and policy adjustments.