The role of China in the East Asian natural gas premium

Abstract

East Asia is the world's main natural gas importing region, in which China became the world's largest gas importer in 2018. However, China's natural gas imports are subject to a high premium level, which increases the gas import cost and negatively impacts China's energy structure transformation and economic development. This paper analyses the East Asian natural gas premium (EANGP) and China's role in it. First, this study estimates the gas premium level in East Asia; second, it analyses the impact of five factors – the oil price, supply-demand relationship, supply risk, trade mode and transport mode – on EANGP in different periods. Third, it analyses the interaction between China and EANGP. Finally, it forecasts EANGP in 2040 and its impact on China's gas import price. The conclusions are as follows: EANGP in 2005–2016 showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a peak in 2012 of approximately 15.4 $/MMBtu; the main influencing factors of EANGP are different in different periods; in general, the supply-demand relationship is one of the most important influencing factors for the premium; before 2010, China suppressed EANGP, after which it promoted EANGP; China's GDP (gross domestic product) loss caused by the premium in 2010–2016 was approximately 330 billion yuan; and the forecast results show that EANGP will rise by 0.54–0.86 $/kg in 2040. At last, some recommendations are provided as follows: promote the market-based pricing mechanism; accelerate the development of unconventional gas; balance the relationship between energy structure transformation and gas premium; improve gas import resilience; and promote the gas short-term and spot trade.