Supply Crisis Research Articles

The bubble that got away? Prospects for shale gas development in South Africa

The potential for shale gas development (SGD) in South Africa’s environmentally sensitive Karoo region has attracted the interest of energy companies, government and the public. The South African government is eager to revive economic growth, improve energy security following an energy supply crisis and relieve high unemployment. The public is torn between environmental concerns and prospects of economic benefits, while investors seek clarity in legislation. The impact of the US shale revolution explains the allure of SGD and constitutes the only model worldwide of a developed shale industry. South Africa is a useful case study for examining how various societal interests shape support for and opposition to SGD. While government seeks to proceed with exploration, a dominant coal industry and other alternatives including renewables and nuclear compete for attention, and there are increasing concerns about the size and economic viability of South Africa’s shale gas deposits. Influential actors in the energy-intensive industries comprising South Africa’s powerful ‘minerals-energy complex’ will play a role in how any shale industry might develop. By considering the interests of key actors including a vacillating government, cautious energy companies and a determined environmental lobby, this article examines South Africa’s tenuous road towards SGD.

Simulation analysis of the spread of a supply crisis based on the global natural graphite trade network

In recent years, the application potential of graphite materials in new energy and new materials has gradually developed. Thus, graphite has become increasingly regarded as a necessary strategic resource for the development of new energy and has gradually been considered seriously by various countries. However, at present, an imbalance between the increased demand and tighter supply of graphite resources is very likely to lead to a supply crisis for graphite. To understand the transmission process and impact of this supply crisis in various countries and to identify countries with important statuses in the graphite trade, in this paper, we construct the global natural graphite trade network. We set each country as a source of crisis transmission. Then, a computer is used to simulate the spread of the crisis through a cascade failure process, and the influence of these source points is analyzed in the real network. The results show that China, the United States, Germany, and India, have larger impacts. Moreover, the scope of influence of a country is related to its region of the country in addition to its GDP and its export volume. Second, the entire cascade propagation process emerges with the diffusion characteristics with which it first begin to spread in the same region. Most of the directly infected countries are in the same region as the initial outbreak country. In addition, by simulating the changes in the avalanche size when China's graphite export volume declines by varying degrees, we find that China has a strong impact, and a small reduction in its export volume can affect the graphite trade in certain countries. Finally, based on differences in resource endowment, economic strength and the consumption in different countries, relevant policy suggestions are proposed for different countries.

Expert system for selecting and prioritizing projects for handling urban water supply crises

ABSTRACTThe water supply crisis (UWC) has affected various cities around the world. The variability of possible causes, the many viable alternatives to UWC management and methodologies for selecting these alternatives, as well as local government’s economic and technical constraints make the problem complex. The aim of this paper is to help select a set of alternative solutions suitable for the UWC problem. The proposed methodology comprised the following steps: (1) theoretical foundation, (2) planning the expert system (ES) to be built, (3) formal knowledge explicitation, (4) knowledge coding, (5) evaluation and adequacy of ES and (6) application of ES to real-life UWC cases. The main result was a computational decision support system, called UWC-ES. The conclusion was that UWC-ES behaved as a computational tool that reasonably reproduces knowledge from various human experts with acceptable applicability, and considering the possibility of using it in other cases.

A New Deal for the Teaching Profession

The crisis in teacher supply points to fundamental problems in the way teachers in England experience their work. In this contribution to debates about a National Education Service (NES) the author argues that a Labour government must be prepared to radically rethink how it engages with the teaching profession. The challenge is to shift from a compliance culture to one in which education workers become central to building the movement on which the NES will be based.

A Study on the Improvement Plan of Cooperative Governance Based Blood Donation

In Korea, blood donations continue to decline as the country ages at a low birth. On the other hand, people in their 50s and older, which account for most of the blood transfusions, and people with severe illnesses, are on the rise. Also, blood supply is unstable during vacations and during tests as blood donation participation is concentrated on students. In this study, we examined past cases based on the role and responsibilities, participation and cooperation and networks that are key elements of cooperative governance to address the problems associated with managing blood supply crises. The reform calls for increasing the participation in blood donation by middle and middle aged people, and calls for the introduction of incentive programs to increase participation in blood donations, development of a standard model for blood donation houses, and the activation of an on-off network to enhance blood donation participation. Keywords: Blood, Blood Donation, Cooperative Governance

Social revolution in the name of a religion? The Islamic Revolution of 1978/79 in Iran

The year 1979 witnessed an event that was to impact the world for decades to come. The Western-friendly monarchic regime of Iran that had pushed through a rapid modernization program by leaning on a repressive security apparatus was toppled by a nationwide protest movement and replaced by an Islamist regime. This study delivers, from a historical sociological perspective, an analysis of the major factors that led to this major transformation of Iranian society. The focus lies thereby on the dialectical interplay of endogenous and exogenous factors in-cluding imperialist interventions, a rentier state, a social split, a supply crisis, radical ideologies and the dynamics of a Shiite community.

Optimized fuzzy rule-based energy management for a battery-less PV/wind-BWRO desalination system

Coupling water desalination processes with Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) can be a sustainable and ecological approach to the global water/energy supply crisis. In this regard, small-scale standalone battery-less Brackish Water Reverse Osmosis (BWRO) desalination system powered by a hybrid PV/Wind RES is expected to meet freshwater demand of a small isolated community. One particularity of the proposed architecture deals with the absence of electrochemical storage; only taking benefit of hydraulic storage in water tanks when RE is available. This study puts forward the prime importance of Water/Power flows management optimization. For this purpose, an online Fuzzy Logic-based Energy Management Strategy (FLEMS) is proposed. Firstly, a Hand-Made Fuzzy Inference System (HMFIS) was designed to identify the instantaneous power sharing between the system hydro-mechanical processes (well pumping, water storage and desalination processes). Secondly, an offline genetic algorithm optimization was applied on the HMFIS design in order to optimize the power sharing factor and maximize freshwater production. Then, when applying unknown power profile, the optimized FLEMS demonstrated its performance to improve the system energy efficiency and enhance the brackish water (from 16.7% in autumn to 63% in summer) and freshwater production (to 3.3% during autumn for instance) compared with the HMFIS-based EMS.

Droht ein neuer Substandard?

The growing lack of housing supply includes the risk that a new type of substandard housing emerges in Germany. The decrease of flats’ size and quality as well as architectural standard is a threatening way to build „affordable“ future homes for those, who fall through the cracks of the current housing market. Due to the limited welfare states engagement on the one hand and private capitalist activity on the other hand, we are currently witnessing a trend to develop second class houses, mostly for students and refugee accomodations. If the housing supply crisis will not be solved, this new substandard will extend to larger parts of the housing market.

SoS Back-and-Forth? Minimum v. Exhaustive Harmonization of Entitled Protected Customers In Gas Supply Crises: Eni and Others

The Russian-Ukraine gas supply crisis in January 2009 brought an unprecedented disruption for the gas supply in Europe. As a response, the SoS Regulation put in place an ambitious plan to mitigate not only the risks of another gas supply crisis, but also to protect a defined group of customers in case of unavoidable gas shortage – households, small and medium enterprises, institutions providing essential social services among others. While it was thought the SoS Regulation had pursued exhaustive harmonization standards in the definition of protected costumers, the ECJ’s judgement in Eni and Others reopened the question. This article, instead, argues that the Court got it wrong. Neither the judgment nor the opinion of the Advocate General paid attention to the legal content of the provision that defined protected customers. If the Court had done so, the judgement would have likely taken additional linguistic, systemic, and teleological arguments into account. The analyses and comments on Eni and Others here offered focus on the first referred question about whether Member States could impose additional obligation on gas undertakings by reviewing the definition of protected customer. Case C-226/16, Eni and Others v Premier Ministre and Ministre de l’Environnement, de l’Energie et de la Mer, Judgement of the Court (First Chamber) of 20 December 2017, EU:C:2017:1005

Is There a Supply Crisis? Sweden’s Critical Metals, 1917–2014

While global metal production has increased almost exponentially over the last hundred years, actors have constantly worried about future scarcities. This article explores why state and business actors within a small country, Sweden, have perceived metals as critical and which strategies they have advanced to cope with potential shortages. It analyzes four reports and/or records of meetings from 1917, 1954, 1980 and 2014, years when the debate about resource scarcity flourished both in Sweden and internationally. The reasons why actors feared the future supply were largely connected to price increases, potential supply disruptions because of war or political instability, and soaring demand for technologies containing metals. Even Sweden, a neutral country, feared shortages because of political instability in foreign countries because of the transnational metal flows. The actors attempted to manage shortages by increased domestic production, technological development, stockpiling, international agreements and recycling. Tracing this issue over time, the article unpacks the importance of and concerns with metal flows in an age of rapid industrial, technological and geopolitical change.

From Fragmented to Joint Responsibilities: Barriers and Opportunities for Adaptive Water Quality Governance in California’s Urban-Agricultural Interface

California is facing a critical water supply and water quality crisis, necessitating a clear shift in the way water resources are managed. This study assesses the effectiveness of water law and policy in the urban-agricultural interface, where the two discharge into common waterways but have different regulatory requirements. A case study from one of California’s most productive agricultural regions, the Salinas Valley, explores the complexities and inadequacies of current water law in the interface, as well as promising integrated water management schemes. The article’s findings are based on archival research, extensive document review and 15 in-depth interviews with key stakeholders. Findings suggest that local, state and federal water policy is severely fragmented, providing little incentive for the multitude of water entities to collaborate on multi-benefit projects and resulting in unsuccessful water quality improvements. There is a strong need for a more integrated policy approach that bridges different types of dischargers (agricultural and urban), water quality and water quantity issues and also incorporates land uses into policy decision making.

The Imminent Gas Supply Crisis of 2020

The Imminent Gas Supply Crisis of 2020

SOUTH AFRICA: Cape Town Water Supply Crisis

Africa Research Bulletin: Economic, Financial and Technical SeriesVolume 55, Issue 1 p. 22000B-22001A Policy and Practice SOUTH AFRICA: Cape Town Water Supply Crisis First published: 05 March 2018 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6346.2018.08158.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume55, Issue1March 2018Pages 22000B-22001A RelatedInformation

Sirovine za budućnost - ima li novih izvora?

A survey is given on the present status of raw materials reserves, trends in consumption rate, etc. The raw materials are further depleting and crisis in supply is possible in future. The components of the supply/consumption complex are identified and analyzed in an attempt to get closer in balancing them. Approach was accepted not to limit the possible sources of raw materials. Some extraordinary sources were considered, as e.g., exploitation of metals from the Earths deep interior and of planet Mars. No matter that the feasibility of such processes in near future is with low chances, one should keep them in mind as one of the promises of new technologies. Another, quite futuristic chance was selected and analyzed. Space mining, the subject of past dreams, seems to get closer to its birth. The asteroid 16 Psyche, is declared to provide iron supply for 'several million of years' (!?), and activities are in course to get prepared for accepting such a gift from the sky. Varieties of exploitation possibilities, parameters of space mining, costs, property and other economy related aspects are already considered. The most distinctive characteristic of this asteroid is that it is free of crust, i.e. only metallic core does exists, so that there is no non- metallic layer of burden to be removed when exploiting it.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE TRIÂNGULO MINEIRO REGION – BRAZILl

In the summer of 2013/2014 the Brazil’s Southern region dealt with a severe crisis in water supply. Recent studies have shown that the low volume of rainfall was caused by an anomalous atmosphere blocking condition. Would this anomaly be a regional effect caused by climate change? To answer this question this study aims to analyze the pattern of temperature, rainfall and relative humidity in the Triângulo Mineiro region, located at the Middle Eastern part of Brazil. Temperature (maximum, average and minimum), rainfall and relative humidity data for the weather stations of the Uberaba (1961 – 2015) and Capinopolis (1971 – 2015) cities were submitted to a Mann-Kendall statistical test (MK) in order to investigate trends. The results showed significant positive trends in temperature for both stations. Likewise, the MK test identified a significant negative trend in rainfall and relative humidity for the month of October, thereby suggesting a delay in the return of the rainy season (spring/summer). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) showed that there is a relationship between the reduction of rainfall and relative humidity, and the increase in temperature. The rainy season delay severely affects the water resources availability, and combined with expansion of crop areas, population growth, and the increase in temperatures, which leads to the increase in evapotranspiration, worsens the water stress in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

Hydrogen Production using Solar Membrane Reactor Technology

Fossil fuels as energy resources are decreasing rapidly which will cause a fuel supply crisis in the future. Based on the predictions, global energy consumption has been increased significantly and will continue to rise about two times higher than now till 2050. On the other hand, the extent of the pollutions released from each of the fossil fuels made too many problems for human’s lives. Thus, the need for new energy sources has increased recently. The need of affordable and clean alternatives for fossil fuels convinced researchers to test other technologies for energy creation. For example, electrical energy produced by fuel cells is one of the perfect solutions to decrease environmental pollution due to its high efficiency, non-environmental pollution and consumption of hydrogen as a clean fuel. Generally hydrogen can be obtained from various sources such as fossil fuels (natural gas reforming of coal and natural gas), renewable resources, water electrolysis and etc. Of course, each of these processes has its advantages and disadvantages in different conditions. The solar reactor membrane technology in recent years has been proposed as an effective way to produce hydrogen from renewable sources. The purpose of this study is on hydrogen production processes using solar membrane reactor technology. Therefore, various hydrogen production methods have been proposed and the advantages and disadvantages of each method have been analyzed. The combination of membrane technology with solar technology and the developments in solar membrane systems is a good alternative to fossil fuels as a green process for hydrogen production, which is cost-effective in terms of thermal efficiency and fuel consumption rate.

A Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption Model. Part II: Predicting the Declines in Regional Oil Consumption

In Part I of this analysis, the striking similarities of the declining oil production in the North Sea, Indonesia and Mexico were used to model the future maximum possible oil production per annum in all larger countries and regions of the planet from 2015 to 2050. In Part II, the oil export and oil consumption patterns, that were established in recent decades, are combined with the consequences of the forecast declines in regional oil production that were developed in Part I of this analysis. The results are quantitative predictions of the maximum possible region-by-region oil consumption during the next 20 years. The predictions indicate that several of the larger oil consuming and importing countries and regions will be confronted with the economic consequences of the onset of the world’s final oil supply crisis as early as 2020. In particular, during the next few years a reduction of the average per capita oil consumption of about 5%/year is predicted for most OECD countries in Western Europe, and slightly smaller reductions, about 2–3%/year, is predicted for all other oil importing countries and regions. The consequences of the predicted oil supply crisis are thoroughly at odds with business-as-usual, never-ending-global-growth predictions of oil production and consumption.

International migration and employment growth in Australia, 2011–2016

Background: Immigration to Australia pre 1995 was largely low skilled. Recessions led to competition between low-skilled domestic workers and new immigrants and subsequent cuts in migration intakes. Historical changes in birth rates, increased participation in tertiary education, increasing numbers retiring and the relatively rapid restructuring of the skill level of labour demand combined to produce a skilled labour supply crisis in Australia from the mid-1990s. The permanent and temporary skilled migration policies established by the Australian Government from 1995 played an important role in meeting that labour demand, especially in the boom years of the first decade of the 21st century.
 Aims: This paper examines the impact of immigration on employment in Australia subsequent to the global financial crisis (GFC) for the five-year period from July 2011 to July 2016.
 Data and methods: Data for the paper are sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The paper uses survival methods to decompose the growth in employment in Australia in the five-year period from 2011 to 2016: (1) change in age and sex distribution in the absence of migration; (2) changes in employment participation rates by age and sex; (3) net migration by age and sex.
 Results: Immigration in response to strong labour demand has continued post GFC. From July 2011 to July 2016, employment in Australia increased by 738,800. Immigrants accounted for 613,400 of the total increase, population growth 98,900 and changes in employment participation only 26,500. Migration has had a very large effect on the age structure of employment with most new immigrant workers (595,300) being under 55 years.
 Conclusions: Research indicates that immigration provides major benefits to the Australian economy. However, as strong labour demand is likely to sustain migration at relatively high levels in coming years, it is incumbent upon governments to plan for the effects of rapid population growth on infrastructure and resources.

Wind resource potential assessment using a long term tower measurement approach: A case study of Beijing in China

With exacerbating air quality due to pollutant emissions and rising energy supply crisis, the wind energy consumption will play a key role in future energy structure in China. To utilize the wind energy optimally, a better understanding and quantification of wind resource such as the temporal-spatial and vertical distributions is vital prior to exploitation. Based on wind measurements from 1991 to 2011 on a 15-level 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing, we assessed the potential of wind resource using the Weibull function and the wind atlas analysis and application program (WAsP) software. Results show that wind resource has significant seasonal and diurnal variations and diurnal variation varies with height. Additionally, although the wind resource increases with height, there is a strong wind shear layer related to the complex urban underlying surface. Furthermore, observation and WAsP simulation show that larger wind resource mainly comes from northwest wind in northwestern or northern Beijing. However, considering the regional average wind resource, we concluded that wind resource in Beijing is suitable for small wind turbines, yet the decreasing trends of wind resources seem to make wind energy unsustainable.

Recontraction by the microdissected thin fibular skin flap of the great toe for soft tissue defects of the finger

Objective To investigate the therapeutic effect of the microdissected thin fibular skin flap of the great toe to repair the finger pulp defect, and to discuss the operation and outcome of the flap for finger pulp defect. Methods From September, 2012 to January, 2016, 12 cases of finger pulp defect were treated with the thin fibular skin flap of great toe removed partially subcutaneous fat under the microscope. One case for index finger, 3 cases for middle finger, 4 cases for ring finger, and 4 cases for little finger. Among them, 5 cases were crush injury, 6 cases were stamping injury, 1 case was avulsion injury. The flap area was 3.0 cm×1.5 cm-3.2 cm×2.2 cm. The donor site was closed directly or covered with flap. Results All the 12 flaps survived completely without blood supply crisis, and the primary healing was achieved in donor site. Ten cases were followed-up from 6 months to 36 months. The blood-supply, texture and elasticity of transferred flaps and the shape of fingers pulp were excellent. Function recovery of the fingers was good. Pain and temperature sense were regained without hypersensitivity, two-point discrimination of finger pulp was 5-8 mm. Conclusion It is a reliable approrach for the repare of the finger pulp defects using the microdissected thin fibular skin flap of the great toe, especillay in repare finger pulp defect of ring and little finger. Key words: Finger injuries; Surgical flaps; Microsurgical operation