Losses In Supply Chain Research Articles

Supply chain loss from easing COVID-19 restrictions: an evolutionary economic-epidemiological modelling study

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, many firms have been shifting their supply chains away from countries with stringent control measures to mitigate supply-chain disruption. Nowadays, the global economy has reopened from the COVID-19 pandemic at various paces in different countries. Understanding how the global supply network evolves during and after the pandemic is necessary for determining the timing and speed of reopening. By harnessing the real-world and real-time global human movement and the latest macroeconomic data, we propose an evolutionary economic-epidemiological model to explore the evolutionary dynamics of the global supply network under various global reopening scenarios. We find that, for highly restrictive countries, the delay in reopening has limited public health benefits in the long run but leads to significant supply-chain loss. A longer duration of stringent control measures substantially hurts the profitability of firms in highly restrictive countries, leading to slower supply-chain recovery in 5 years. This research presents the first data-driven evidence of supply chain loss due to the timing and speed of reopening and sheds light on the post-pandemic supply-chain reformation and recovery. Insights learned from COVID-19 will also be a valuable policymaking reference for combating future infectious disease epidemics and geopolitical changes.

Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures.

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.

Aquarium Trade Supply-Chain Losses of Marine Invertebrates Originating from Papua New Guinea.

A major difficulty in managing live organism wildlife trade is often the reliance on trade data to monitor exploitation of wild populations. Harvested organisms that die or are discarded before a point of sale are regularly not reported. For the global marine aquarium trade, identifying supply-chain losses is necessary to more accurately assess exploitation from trade data. We examined quality control rejections and mortality of marine invertebrates (Asteroidea, Gastropoda, Malacostraca, Ophiuroidea) moving through the Papua New Guinea marine aquarium supply-chain, from fisher to importer. Utilizing catch invoices and exporter mortality records we determined that, over a 160 day period, 38.6% of the total invertebrate catch (n = 13,299 individuals) was lost before export. Supply-chain losses were divided among invertebrates rejected in the quality control process (11.5%) and mortality of the accepted catch in transit to, and during holding at, an export facility (30.6%). A further 0.3% died during international transit to importers. We quantified supply-chain losses for the ten most fished species which accounted for 96.4% of the catch. Quality control rejections (n = 1533) were primarily explained by rejections of oversized invertebrates (83.2% of rejections). We suggest that enforceable size limits on species prone to size-based rejections and elimination of village-based holding of invertebrates would reduce losses along the Papua New Guinea supply-chain. This case study underscores that low mortality during international transit may mask large losses along supply-chains prior to export and exemplifies the limitations of trade data to accurately monitor exploitation.