Supply Risk Research Articles

Risk Transmission in Low-Carbon Supply Chains Considering Corporate Risk Aversion

In order to study the impact of risk aversion characteristics of enterprises on supply chain risk transmission, the risk aversion utility function is introduced, and the risk elasticity coefficient is used to construct a supplier-dominated low-carbon supply chain risk transmission model. Simulation analysis is conducted to investigate the transmission of emission reduction and revenue risks caused by internal and external contingent risk factors. The study reveals that under conditions of market demand uncertainty, the risk transmission effect is unaffected by the risk aversion characteristics of members in the low-carbon supply chain. While the risk-aversion characteristics of suppliers can decrease their own profit risk, they have a negative effect on the profit risk of manufacturers and the emission reduction risk of supply chain nodes. There exists a critical threshold for the impact of the risk-aversion degree of suppliers on their own emission reduction risk transmission effect. When this threshold is exceeded, the emission reduction risk decreases with increasing risk aversion intensity of suppliers, and vice versa. The risk aversion characteristics of manufacturers can weaken the negative effect of supplier risk aversion on the fluctuation risk of manufacturer profits, but they exacerbate the emission reduction risk transmission effect of manufacturers under asymmetric information influence. The findings have important theoretical and practical implications for supply chain risk management.

Incentive contract design for reducing carbon emissions in the supply chain under asymmetric information

AbstractIn light of the volatility of market demand and carbon trading prices, this study examines the effects of two carbon policies—the carbon tax policy and the cap‐and‐trade policy—as well as various information structures on the supply chain's carbon emission reduction incentives. A brand incentivizes the carbon abatement effort of an upstream supplier through a two‐part contract in the form of a fixed salary and a proportional incentive. We discover that, under some circumstances, the brand may benefit more from the unobservability of supply chain information. The brand bundles the risk of uncertainty with the supplier through the proportional incentive. In classical incentive contracts, only the cost is considered and the positive effect of risk conveyance is often ignored. In our study, the brand needs to investigate a trade‐off between the benefit of risk conveyance and the drawback of the incentive cost. On one hand, the proportional incentive characterizes the incentive cost. The brand increases the incentive intensity due to the unobservable effort of the supplier. On the other hand, it also has a risk conveyance effect. Specifically, the proportional incentive decreases with the correlation coefficient under the cap‐and‐trade policy. Additionally, there are situations in which consumer surplus benefits from the observability of supply chain information. However, supply chain information transparency is harmful to consumer surplus as supplier risk aversion increases.

Microstructural Investigation of Discarded NdFeB Magnets After Low-Temperature Hydrogenation

Due to continuously increasing demand and limited resources of rare-earth elements (REEs), new solutions are being sought to overcome the supply risk of REEs. To mitigate the supply risk of REEs, much attention has recently been paid to recycling. Despite the more common recycling methods, including hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical processes, hydrogen processing of magnetic scrap (HPMS) is still in the development stage. Magnet-to-magnet recycling via hydrogenation of discarded NdFeB magnets provides a fine powder suitable for the production of new magnets from secondary sources. One of the crucial aspects of HPMS is the degree of recovery of the magnetic properties, as the yield efficiency can easily reach over 95%. The amount, morphology, and distribution of the Nd-rich phase are the key parameters to achieve the excellent performance of the magnet by isolating the matrix grain. Therefore, a better insight into the microstructure of the matrix grains and the Nd-rich phase before and after hydrogenation is essential. In this study, a low-temperature hydrogenation process in the range of room temperature to 400 °C was conducted as the first step to recycle NdFeB magnets from discarded hard disk drives (HDDs), and the hydrogenated powder was characterized by electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction. The results show that there are three different morphologies of the Nd-rich phase, which undergo two different transformations through oxidation and hydride formation. While at lower temperatures (below 250 °C) the degree of pulverization is higher and the experimental evidence of hydride formation is less clear, at higher temperatures the degree of pulverization decreases. The formation of neodymium hydride at higher temperatures prevents further oxidation of the Nd-rich phase due to its high stability.Graphical

Agency contracts with incentive mechanisms considering supplier risk aversion in a dynamic platform supply chain

Agency contracts with incentive mechanisms considering supplier risk aversion in a dynamic platform supply chain

The development of China’s monopoly over cobalt battery materials

While previous resource conflicts have often been linked to fuel minerals such as oil, future resource conflict may revolve around nonfuel minerals that enable strategic emerging technologies. During a 2010 diplomatic dispute, China reportedly blocked exports of rare earth elements to Japan, thereby leveraging China’s near-monopoly to threaten Japanese manufacturers of advanced technologies including batteries and permanent magnets. Although this caused significant concern for manufacturers outside China, China’s control over other critical minerals has yet to be studied comprehensively. Besides rare earth elements, perhaps no mineral has received more attention for its supply risks than cobalt. Here Chinese control is estimated for each cobalt material at each stage of the cobalt supply chain from 2000 through 2022. The results show that from mining, to refining, consumption, recycling, stocks, and trade, China dominates the cobalt materials that feed lithium-ion battery cathode production. Specifically, the results show that in 2022 Chinese firms had control over 62% of cobalt mine materials primarily used for cobalt chemical refining, 95% control of refined commercial-grade cobalt chemicals, 92% control of battery-grade tricobalt tetroxide, 85% control of battery-grade cobalt sulfate, and 91% control of nickel–cobalt-manganese cathode precursor materials. China’s monopoly over cobalt battery materials may imply a serious supply risk to non-Chinese battery producing and consuming industries—especially given rising geopolitical tensions and the reemergence of critical mineral export restrictions including gallium for semiconductors, germanium for solar panels, graphite for lithium-ion batteries, and (again) rare earth elements.

Topological Characterization and Uncertainty Visualization of Atmospheric Rivers

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow regions of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere that transport heat and moisture from the tropics to the mid‐latitudes. ARs are often associated with extreme weather events in North America and contribute significantly to water supply and flood risk. However, characterizing ARs has been a major challenge due to the lack of a universal definition and their structural variations. Existing AR detection tools (ARDTs) produce distinct AR boundaries for the same event, making the risk assessment of ARs a difficult task. Understanding these uncertainties is crucial to improving the predictability of AR impacts, including their landfall areas and associated precipitation, which could cause catastrophic flooding and landslides over the coastal regions. In this work, we develop an uncertainty visualization framework that captures boundary and interior uncertainties, i.e., structural variations, of an ensemble of ARs that arise from a set of ARDTs. We first provide a statistical overview of the AR boundaries using the contour boxplots of Whitaker et al. that highlight the structural variations of AR boundaries based on their nesting relationships. We then introduce the topological skeletons of ARs based on Morse complexes that characterize the interior variation of an ensemble of ARs. We propose an uncertainty visualization of these topological skeletons, inspired by MetroSets of Jacobson et al. that emphasizes the agreements and disagreements across the ensemble members. Through case studies and expert feedback, we demonstrate that the two approaches complement each other, and together they could facilitate an effective comparative analysis process and provide a more confident outlook on an AR's shape, area, and onshore impact.

Addendum To: Supplier risk assessment strategy

Addendum To: Supplier risk assessment strategy

Tracking the global anthropogenic gallium cycle during 2000–2020: A trade-linked multiregional material flow analysis

Byproduct metals are essential to global low carbon transition since they are irreplaceable in modern renewable energy technologies. Gallium (Ga) is classified as one critical byproduct metal due to its extensive use in electronic applications and low carbon technologies, as well as its limited resource endowment. It is urgent to uncover the global and regional Ga stocks and flows so that the potential supply risks can be mitigated. This study maps the global and regional Ga cycles for the period of 2000–2020 by employing a trade-linked multiregional material flow analysis (MFA) method. Our results show that 79% of the global Ga co-mined from bauxite ended up in red mud or entered the aluminum cycle as an impurity, indicating a significant recycling potential. Different involved regions have different but complementary roles in the global Ga supply chain. China dominates the global primary Ga production, accounting for 97% of the global total in 2020. Japan and the United States are key players in high-purity Ga refining and rely on Ga to support their electronic devices manufacturing. Unfortunately, Ga recycling practices are still not occurring due to the low Ga concentrations in major applications. Since the global demand for Ga will continue to grow in the near future, it is urgent to initiate collaborative efforts so that Ga recycling can be enhanced. These efforts are critical to ensure the sustainable Ga supply and facilitate the global transition toward low carbon development.

State of Play of Critical Mineral-Based Catalysts for Electrochemical E-Refinery to Synthetic Fuels.

The pursuit of decarbonization involves leveraging waste CO2 for the production of valuable fuels and chemicals (e.g., ethanol, ethylene, and urea) through the electrochemical CO2 reduction reactions (CO2RR). The efficacy of this process heavily depends on electrocatalyst performance, which is generally reliant on high loading of critical minerals. However, the supply of these minerals is susceptible to shortage and disruption, prompting concerns regarding their usage, particularly in electrocatalysis, requiring swift innovations to mitigate the supply risks. The reliance on critical minerals in catalyst fabrication can be reduced by implementing design strategies that improve the available active sites, thereby increasing the mass activity. This review seeks to discuss and analyze potential strategies, challenges, and opportunities for improving catalyst activity in CO2RR with a special attention to addressing the risks associated with critical mineral scarcity. By shedding light onto these aspects of critical mineral-based catalyst systems, this review aims to inspire the development of high-performance catalysts and facilitates the practical application of CO2RR technology, whilst mitigating adverse economic, environmental, and community impacts.

The Impact of Opportunistic Salpingectomy on Ovarian Reserve: A Systematic Review.

Background: In the last decade, increasing evidence has suggested that high-grade serous ovarian cancers may have their origin in the fallopian tube rather than the ovary. This emerging theory presents an opportunity to prevent epithelial ovarian cancer by incorporating prophylactic bilateral salpingectomy into all surgical procedures for average-risk women. The aim of this review is to investigate the hypothesis that bilateral salpingectomy (BS) may have a negative impact on ovarian reserve, not only following hysterectomy for benign uterine pathologies but also when performed during cesarean sections as a method of sterilization or as a treatment for hydrosalpinx in Assisted Reproductive Technology interventions. Methods: PubMed, Medline, Google Scholar, and Cochrane were searched for original studies, meta-analyses, and opinion articles published between 2014 and 2024. Results: Out of 114 records from the database search, after the removal of duplicates, 102 articles were considered relevant for the current study. Conclusions: Performing opportunistic salpingectomy seems to have no adverse impact on ovarian function in the short term. However, because there is an existing risk of damaging ovarian blood supply during salpingectomy, there are concerns about potential long-term adverse effects on the ovarian reserve, which need further investigation.

Renewable Energy and Equilibrium Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets

We study the impact of renewable energy on forward markets for electricity. Previous literature shows that forward prices are determined by time-varying demand and volatile spot prices. We introduce supply risk from renewable generation and find that stochastic renewable output mitigates income risk for generating firms, in particular when negative shocks to renewable output have large positive price impact. This risk off-setting effect leads to reduced hedging needs for generating companies and increases the forward premium. Using five years of high-frequency spot and futures market data, we confirm our model empirically. In sum, our findings suggest that intermittent renewable generation changes firm’s hedging incentives and has significant impact on forward prices for electricity. JEL Classification: G11, G13, Q42

A decision support system for sustainable supplier selection problem: Evidence from a radiator manufacturing industry

Supplier selection is the basis of a successful supply chain. It is also a key factor in improving the competitiveness of an organization. Being a complex process, the supplier selection plays an important role in upgrading the supply chain. The purpose of this research is to present an integrated approach based on fuzzy best-worst method (BWM) and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for sustainable supplier selection considering seasonal quantity discounts and supplier risk for a radiator manufacturing company. Therefore, as the aim implies, this study addresses how organizations develop a sustainable supplier selection framework by integrating linear programming and decision-making in presence of seasonal discounts. To this end, fuzzy BWM and FMEA were employed to calculate weighting factors for different selection criteria and evaluate the supplier risk, respectively. Then, suppliers were ranked using the so-called technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). Finally, the discount type was examined by the LP-metric method. Results of the fuzzy BWM showed that the customer satisfaction was the criterion of highest priority, followed by long-term relationship, and then pollution control, among the total of 13 criteria considered in this work. Outputs of the TOPSIS referred to the supplier 3 as the top-ranked supplier, followed by supplier 6 and then supplier 1.

Overview on Hydrometallurgical Recovery of Rare-Earth Metals from Red Mud

Aluminum is produced from its primary bauxite ore through the Bayer process. Although Al is important nowadays in the development of humanity, its production leads to the generation of a huge amount of waste, called red mud. Globally, the estimation of the stock of red mud is about 4 billion tons, with about 10 million tons located in Turkey. The presence of rare-earth elements (REEs) in crucial materials such as red mud makes it a major source of these elements. A number of methods have been developed for treating red mud, which are employed globally to recover valuable products. The application of a suitable method for REE extraction from red mud is a way to overcome the supply risk, contributing to reducing the environmental issues linked to red mud pollution. The current review summarizes the research on red mud processing and examines the viability of recovering REEs from red mud sustainably, utilizing hydrometallurgy and biohydrometallurgy.

The relationships between ethical codes of conduct, ethical supplier risks, and financial performance: a buyer-supplier perspective

Although ethical codes of conduct are commonly used in supply chain management, the effectiveness of the codes has been questionable and the ethical risks from a supplier are rarely examined in a buyer-supplier dyad. Drawing on the literature on supply management, business ethics, agency theory and stakeholder theory, we propose that both the buyer and supplier should adopt ethical codes of conduct in order to reduce ethical supplier risk and improve their financial performance. A survey of 200 pairs of matched manufacturers and suppliers was conducted from automotive, clothing, food and pharmaceutical industries in China. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the data. Our findings show that the implementation of buyer (supplier)’s ethical codes positively relate to its financial performance, and the buyer’s ethical codes positively relate to the supplier’s financial performance through ethical supplier risk. Our findings provide new empirical evidence on the critical significance of ethical codes of conduct and the particular role of suppliers in the adoption of this initiative in a supplier-buyer dyad.

Manajemen Risiko Pada Aktivitas Distribusi Pangan KJP Di Kepulauan Seribu Menggunakan Metode House Of Risk

PD PSJ is a company engaged in the distribution of foodstuffs and basic needs, especially the people of Jakarta. Along with the government's program related to the procurement of KJP cheap foodstuffs, the KJP food distribution process is in collaboration with PD PSJ. KJP food distribution activities are carried out throughout the DKI Jakarta area, including the Thousand Islands. In the process, there were several obstacles experienced by the officers. To reduce the risk of a late KJP food distribution supply, management carried out several policies related to risk management. The House of Risk (HOR) method is one of the methods to identify several activities and risks that can occur in the supply chain process of goods. This research applies the HOR method to obtain recommendations for improvements in the process of distributing KJP goods. The results of data processing and analysis using the HOR method obtained the greatest recommendation for improvement is to conduct training to field officers and improve communication both internally and externally.

A Long-Term Power Supply Risk Evaluation Method for China Regional Power System Based on Probabilistic Production Simulation

To qualify the risk of extreme weather events for power supply security during the long-term power system transformation process, this paper proposes a risk probability evaluation method based on probabilistic production simulation. Firstly, the internal relationship of extreme weather intensity and duration is depicted using the copula function, and the influences of extreme weather on power security are described using the guaranteed power output ability coefficient, which can provide the extreme scenario basis for probabilistic production simulation. Then, a probabilistic production simulation method is proposed, which includes a typical-year scenario and extreme weather events. Meanwhile, an index system is proposed to qualify the power security level, which applies the loss of load expectation (LOLE) and time of loss of load expectation (TOLE) under different scenarios and other indices to reveal the long-term power security trend. Finally, the long-term power supply risks for the Yunnan provincial power system are analyzed using the proposed method, validating that the proposed method is capable of characterizing the influences of extreme weather on power security. The security level of different long-term power transformation schemes is evaluated.

Effect of Procurement Planning on Public Institutions Performance: A Case of Rwanda Development Board

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of procurement planning on public institutions performance. The Rwandan Development Board (RDB) has included state agencies in the creation of procurement strategies, but their efforts have been fruitless so far. An everyday scenario would be an organization's signed contracts with its contractors seeing a rise in the amounts due to the unexpectedly high pricing on global marketplaces. In conducting this research, three objectives were laid out to assess the effects of procurement needs identification and specifications on performance of Rwanda Development Board, to find out the effect of procurement budgeting on performance of Rwanda Development Board and to examine the effect of procurement risk management on the performance of Rwanda Development Board. To accomplish these goals, we first conducted a literature study that centered on the resource-based perspective, stakeholder theory, and relationship management theory; then, we used a census sample approach to choose 156 RDB workers from whom we gathered data. Methods for gathering information included an interview guide, documentation, and a questionnaire. We used quantitative and qualitative data to examine the data. The results show that, with all procurement planning set to zero, the performance of RDB will be 147.4 percent; there will be a 36.8 percent boost in RDB performance with an increase of one unit in the use of procurement needs identification and specifications; a 63.2% boost in RDB performance with an increase of one percent in the use of procurement budgeting; and a 68.4 percent boost in RDB performance with an increase of one percentage point in the use of procurement risk management planning. From a high level of analysis, it was found that procurement risk management planning, procurement budgeting, and procurement requirements identification and specifications were the three factors that had the most impact on the performance of public institutions at RDB. Procurement requirements identification and specifications, procurement budgeting, and procurement risk management planning all had 0.011, 0.018, and 0.31 levels of significance, respectively, at a 5% level of significance and a 95% level of confidence. With p<0.05, all of the factors were considerably different. Also, the Rwanda Development Board's procurement plans and the performance of public institutions are significantly different (p=.000), according to the ANOVA test. Public sector organizations' efficiency and effectiveness are both improved by procurement planning, according to the research. Procurement planning allows the government agency to save money by consolidating comparable needs under a single contract and by dividing more complicated needs into smaller, more manageable packages. The researcher concluded that RDB could benefit from identifying possible product issues before purchase through procurement needs identification and specifications; as a result, the researcher advised that RDB and suppliers typically enter into a transactional relationship. It is recommended to collaborate with suppliers when acquiring commodities that have a greater supply risk.

Effect of risk management practices on project performance: A case of the Mafuru-Kimambira Water Supply Project in Mvomero District.

The study examined the effect of risk management practices on project performance using a case of Mafuru-Kimambira Water Supply Project. This study used quantitative research approach together with non-proportional stratified simple random sampling technique to obtain 98 project contractors. The data were collected using the questionnaire method and analyzed using both descriptive statistics and multiple regression model to analyze the effects of risk management practices on project performance. The findings revealed that risk prevention practice was found to be positive and significant, indicating that it has a direct effect on Mafuru-Kimambira water supply project performance, risk transfer was also found to be positive and significant, indicating that it has a direct impact on Mafuru-Kimambira water supply project performance and risk control was found to be positive and significant, indicating that it has a direct impact on project performance. The study emphasize how crucial risk management techniques are to improving the efficiency of water supply initiatives like the Mafuru-Kimambira Water Supply Project. The study recommends that policymakers should contemplate formulating and executing regulations that promote the application of risk prevention, risk transfer, and risk control techniques in project management. These policies might include directives requiring the application of these techniques in project planning and execution, incentives for projects that exhibit excellent risk management, and training courses for project managers on risk management techniques. By ensuring that water supply projects are carried out successfully, these policies may contribute to increased water security and socioeconomic growth.

Navigating Supply Chain Resilience: A Hybrid Approach to Agri-Food Supplier Selection

Globalization and multinational commerce have increased the dynamism and complexity of supply networks, thereby increasing their susceptibility to disruptions along interconnected supply chains. This study aims to tackle the significant concern of supplier selection disruptions in the Thai agri-food industry as a response to the aforementioned challenges. A novel supplier evaluation system, PROMETHEE II, is suggested; it combines the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) with inferential statistical techniques. This investigation commences with the identification of critical indicators of risk in the sustainable supply chain via three phases of analysis and 315 surveys of management teams. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is utilized to ascertain six supply risk criteria and twenty-three sub-criteria. Following this, the parameters are prioritized by FAHP, whereas four prospective suppliers for an agricultural firm are assessed by PROMETHEE II. By integrating optimization techniques into sensitivity analysis, this hybrid approach improves supplier selection criteria by identifying dependable solutions that are customized to risk scenarios and business objectives. The iterative strategy enhances the resilience of the agri-food supply chain by enabling well-informed decision-making amidst evolving market dynamics and chain risks. In addition, this research helps agricultural and other sectors by providing a systematic approach to selecting low-risk suppliers and delineating critical supply chain risk factors. By bridging complexity and facilitating informed decision-making in supplier selection processes, the results of this study fill a significant void in the academic literature concerning sustainable supply chain risk management.

Effect of combined additions of Sc, Zr and Ti on hot-cracking resistance and precipitation behaviour in Al-Mg alloy by L-PBF

The request for high-performance aluminum components prompts research into innovative alloys compatible with laser-based additive manufacturing processes, leveraging grain refiners in their composition to mitigate hot-cracking and enhance strength. While the addition of Sc and Zr in Al-Mg alloys has been widely investigated, the high cost and supply risks associated with Sc necessitate reducing its amount and replacing, at least partially, with other inoculants. In this preliminary study, the amount of Sc replaceable with different concentrations of Zr or Ti is evaluated investigating the laser powder bed fusion processability of three powder feedstocks: a pre-alloyed Al-Mg-Zr-Sc powder, a blend of the previous alloy with addition of Zr particles, and a further blend of an alloy depleted of Zr with added Ti particles. The experimental analyses on the laser-processed alloys showed that the standard and the Zr-enriched alloys featured a bimodal microstructure free from cracks with fine equiaxed grains at the edge of the molten pools and coarser grains at their centers. In the alloy variant depleted in Zr with addition of Ti particles a columnar structure was observed and hot-cracks appeared. Thermodynamic simulations of phase formation allowed defining the precipitation kinetics during solidification and direct aging, showing increased precipitation in alloys with higher Zr content, while the presence of Ti resulted in sluggish precipitation. Experimental aging tests demonstrated significant increases in microhardness, with peak values of the modified alloys achieved after 12 h at 375 °C.