Supercooled Liquid Water Content Research Articles

Vertical Motions in Orographic Cloud Systems over the Payette River Basin. Part IV: Controls on Supercooled Liquid Water Content and Cloud Droplet Number Concentrations

Abstract This paper examines the controls on supercooled liquid water content (SLWC) and drop number concentrations (Nt,CDP) over the Payette River basin during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) campaign. During SNOWIE, 27.4% of 1-Hz in situ cloud droplet probe samples were in an environment containing supercooled liquid water (SLW). The interquartile range of SLWC, when present, was found to be 0.02–0.18 g m−3 and 13.3–37.2 cm−3 for Nt,CDP, with the most extreme values reaching 0.40–1.75 g m−3 and 150–320 cm−3 in isolated regions of convection and strong shear-induced turbulence. SLWC and Nt,CDP distributions are shown to be directly related to cloud-top temperature and ice particle concentrations, consistent with past research over other mountain ranges. Two classes of vertical motions were analyzed as potential controls on SLWC and Nt,CDP, the first forced by the orography and fixed in space relative to the topography (stationary waves) and the second transient, triggered by vertical shear and instability within passing synoptic-scale cyclones. SLWC occurrence and magnitudes, and Nt,CDP associated with fixed updrafts were found to be normally distributed about ridgelines when SLW was present. SLW was more likely to form at low altitudes near the terrain slope associated with fixed waves due to higher mixing ratios and larger vertical air parcel displacements at low altitudes. When considering transient updrafts, SLWC and Nt,CDP appear more uniformly distributed over the flight track with little discernable terrain dependence as a result of time and spatially varying updrafts associated with passing weather systems. The implications for cloud seeding over the basin are discussed.

Vertical Structure and Ice Production Processes of Shallow Convective Postfrontal Clouds over the Southern Ocean in MARCUS. Part II: Modeling Study

Abstract Part I of this series presented a detailed overview of postfrontal mixed-phase clouds observed during the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) field campaign. In Part II, we focus on a multiday (23–26 February 2018) case with the aim of understanding ice production as well as model sensitivity to ice process parameterizations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The control simulation with the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) microphysics scheme underestimates the ice content and overestimates the supercooled liquid water content, contrary to the bias common in global climate models. The simulations targeted at ice production processes show negligible sensitivity to cloud droplet number concentrations. Further, neither increasing ice nuclei particle (INP) concentrations to an unrealistic level nor adjusting it to MARCUS field estimations alone guarantees more ice production in the model. However, the simulated clouds are found to be highly sensitive to the implementation of immersion freezing, the thresholding of condensation/deposition freezing initiation, and the rime splintering process. By increasing immersion freezing of cloud droplets, relaxing thresholds for condensation/deposition freezing, or removing rime splintering thresholds, the model significantly improves its performance in producing ice. The relaxation of the immersion freezing temperature threshold to the observed cloud-top temperature suggests an in-cloud seeder–feeder mechanism. The results of this work call for an increase in observations of INP, especially over the remote Southern Ocean and at relatively high temperatures, and measurements of ice particle size distributions to better constrain ice nucleating processes in models.

A Case Study of Cloud-Top Kelvin–Helmholtz Instability Waves near the Dendritic Growth Zone

Abstract Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KH) waves have been broadly shown to affect the growth of hydrometeors within a region of falling precipitation, but formation and growth from KH waves at cloud top needs further attention. Here, we present detailed observations of cloud-top KH waves that produced a snow plume that extended to the surface. Airborne transects of cloud radar aligned with range height indicator scans from ground-based precipitation radar track the progression and intensity of the KH wave kinetics and precipitation. In situ cloud probes and surface disdrometer measurements are used to quantify the impact of the snow plume on the composition of an underlying supercooled liquid water (SLW) cloud and the snowfall observed at the surface. KH wavelengths of 1.5 km consisted of ∼750-m-wide up- and downdrafts. A distinct fluctus region appeared as a wave-breaking cloud top where the fastest updraft was observed to exceed 5 m s−1. Relatively weaker updrafts of 0.5–1.5 m s−1 beneath the fluctus and partially overlapping the dendritic growth zone were associated with steep gradients in reflectivity of −5 to 20 dBZe in as little as 500-m depths due to rapid growth of pristine planar ice crystals. The falling snow removed ∼80% of the SLW content from the underlying cloud and led to a twofold increase in surface liquid equivalent snowfall rate from 0.6 to 1.3 mm h−1. This paper presents the first known study of cloud-top KH waves producing snowfall with observations of increased snowfall rates at the surface.

Improving Millimeter Radar Attenuation Corrections in High-Latitude Mixed-Phase Clouds via Radio Soundings and a Suite of Active and Passive Instruments

Supercooled liquid clouds are very frequent in high-latitude regions. In addition to their substantial effect on visible and infrared radiation, they affect the signal of millimeter radars by producing nonnegligible attenuation. Such attenuation must be properly corrected if the information of millimeter radars is used in quantitative retrievals for inferring ice microphysical properties. This study proposes a multisensor scheme for refining the vertical distribution of supercooled liquid water content (SLWC) compared to state-of-the-art methods that equipartition the liquid water path measured by microwave radiometer to all pixels identified as cloudy by the radars and warmer than −40 °C. Our methodology is applicable in high-latitude, mixed-phase environments based on the synergy between radar and lidar binary cloud phase masking, microwave radiometer, and radio sounding observations. The technique is demonstrated via data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program climate research facility at the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and compared with the state-of-the-art methods. Path integrated attenuation (PIA) at W- and G-band frequencies (>95 GHz) is then assessed. Results indicate that the different in-cloud distributions of the liquid condensate lead to round-trip PIA discrepancies of cloudy volumes that range in [2, 5] dB at W- and G-band frequencies. These differences far exceed those encountered when changing some of the algorithm’s arbitrary assumptions and weighting functions.

Potential for Ground-Based Glaciogenic Cloud Seeding over Mountains in the Interior Western United States and Anticipated Changes in a Warmer Climate

AbstractGlaciogenic cloud seeding has long been practiced as a way to increase water availability in arid regions, such as the interior western United States. Many seeding programs in this region target cold-season orographic clouds with ground-based silver iodide generators. Here, the “seedability” (defined as the fraction of time that conditions are suitable for ground-based seeding) is evaluated in this region from 10 years of hourly output from a regional climate model with a horizontal resolution of 4 km. Seedability criteria are based on temperature, presence of supercooled liquid water, and Froude number, which is computed here as a continuous field relative to the local terrain. The model’s supercooled liquid water compares reasonably well to microwave radiometer observations. Seedability peaks at 20%–30% for many mountain ranges in the cold season, with the best locations just upwind of crests, over the highest terrain in Colorado and Wyoming, as well as over ranges in the northwest interior. Mountains farther south are less frequently seedable, because of warmer conditions, but when they are, cloud supercooled liquid water content tends to be relatively high. This analysis is extended into a future climate, anticipated for later this century, with a mean temperature 2.0 K warmer than the historical climate. Seedability generally will be lower in this future warmer climate, especially in the most seedable areas, but, when seedable, clouds tend to contain slightly more supercooled liquid water.

Intraregional Comparisons of the Near‐Storm Environments of Storms Dominated by Frequent Positive Versus Negative Cloud‐to‐Ground Flashes

AbstractWe gridded 11 years of cloud‐to‐ground (CG) flashes detected by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network during the warm season in 15 km × 15 km × 15 min grid cells to identify storms with substantial CG flash rates clearly dominated by flashes lowering one polarity of charge to the ground or the other (+CG flashes vs. −CG flashes). Previous studies in the central United States had found that the gross charge distribution of storms dominated by +CG flashes included a large upper negative charge over a large middle level positive charge, a reversal of the usual polarities. In each of seven regions spanning the contiguous United States (CONUS), we compared 17 environmental parameters of storms dominated by +CG flashes with those of storms dominated by –CG flashes. These parameters were chosen based on their expected roles in modulating supercooled liquid water content (SLWC) in the updraft because laboratory experiments have shown that SLWC affects the polarity of charge exchanged during rebounding collisions between riming graupel and small ice particles in the mixed phase region. This, in turn, would affect the vertical polarity of a storm's charge distribution and the dominant polarity of CG flashes. Our results suggest that the combination of parameters conducive to dominant +CG flash activity and, by inference, to anomalous storm charge structure varies widely from region to region, the lack of a favorable value of any particular parameter in a given region being offset by favorable values of one or more other parameters.

Analysis of a Record-Breaking Rainfall Event Associated With a Monsoon Coastal Megacity of South China Using Multisource Data

Monsoon coastal cities often suffer from extreme rain-induced flooding and severe hazard. However, the associated physical mechanisms and detailed storm structures are poorly understood due to the lack of high-resolution data. This study presents an analysis of a thunderstorm that produces extreme hourly rainfall (EXHR) of 219 mm over the Guangzhou megacity on the southern coast of China using integrated multiplatform observations and a four-dimensional variational Doppler radar analysis system. Results indicate that weak environmental flows and convectively generated weak cold pool facilitate the formation of a quasi-stationary storm, while onshore warm and moist flows in the boundary layer (BL) provide the needed moisture supply. The 219-mm EXHR is attendant by a shallow meso- <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\gamma $ </tex-math></inline-formula> -scale vortex due to stretching of intense latent heating-induced convergence, which, in turn, helps organize convective updrafts into its core region. Lightning and dual-polarization radar observations reveal active warm-rain (but weak mixed-phase) microphysical processes, with raindrop size distribution (RSD) closer to marine convection. In contrast, another storm develops about 4 h earlier and only 35 km to the northwest, but with more lightning, higher cloud tops, more graupel and supercooled liquid water content, more continental RSD, little evidence of rotation, and much less rainfall; they are attributable to the presence of larger convective available potential energy resulting from the urban heat island effects and less moisture supply in the BL. These results highlight the importance of using multisource remote sensing data sets in understanding the microphysical and kinematic structures of EXHR-producing storms.

The Roles of Mineral Dust as Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Ice Nuclei During the Evolution of a Hail Storm

AbstractAerosols play important roles in the evolution of deep convective systems like hailstorms. In this study, the heterogeneous ice nucleation schemes have been improved in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a spectral bin microphysics (WRF‐SBM), which considered aerosols acting as ice nuclei (IN). A hail storm occurred around Tianshan mountains, northwestern China, was simulated with updated WRF‐SBM, and the results have been compared with satellite observations. Further, four sensitive simulation tests were conducted with different cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and IN concentrations to investigate their respective roles during the evolution of the hailstorm. The increase in CCN concentration resulted in larger cloud droplet concentration and cloud water content, as well as enhanced condensational growth, which released more latent heat and led to stronger updraft at lower levels. The increase in IN number almost did not affect warm processes but led to larger ice crystal concentration and enhanced Bergeron process. Larger CCN concentration led to larger supercooled liquid water content, which in turn contributed to the enhanced hail growth by more efficient drop‐ice collisions and led to larger size of hail particles, while larger IN number reduced the size of graupel and suppressed the growth of hailstones. An analysis of the mobility of hail indicated increased frequency of larger hail with stronger sedimentation induced by more CCN. A further three ensemble runs with random perturbations on initial temperature and humidity were performed for each aerosol scenario, and the results suggested the robustness of simulated CCN and IN effects.

Evaluation of ARM tethered-balloon system instrumentation for supercooled liquid water and distributed temperature sensing in mixed-phase Arctic clouds

Abstract. A tethered-balloon system (TBS) has been developed and is being operated by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility in order to collect in situ atmospheric measurements within mixed-phase Arctic clouds. Periodic tethered-balloon flights have been conducted since 2015 within restricted airspace at ARM's Advanced Mobile Facility 3 (AMF3) in Oliktok Point, Alaska, as part of the AALCO (Aerial Assessment of Liquid in Clouds at Oliktok), ERASMUS (Evaluation of Routine Atmospheric Sounding Measurements using Unmanned Systems), and POPEYE (Profiling at Oliktok Point to Enhance YOPP Experiments) field campaigns. The tethered-balloon system uses helium-filled 34 m3 helikites and 79 and 104 m3 aerostats to suspend instrumentation that is used to measure aerosol particle size distributions, temperature, horizontal wind, pressure, relative humidity, turbulence, and cloud particle properties and to calibrate ground-based remote sensing instruments. Supercooled liquid water content (SLWC) sondes using the vibrating-wire principle, developed by Anasphere Inc., were operated at Oliktok Point at multiple altitudes on the TBS within mixed-phase clouds for over 200 h. Sonde-collected SLWC data were compared with liquid water content derived from a microwave radiometer, Ka-band ARM zenith radar, and ceilometer at the AMF3, as well as liquid water content derived from AMF3 radiosonde flights. The in situ data collected by the Anasphere sensors were also compared with data collected simultaneously by an alternative SLWC sensor developed at the University of Reading, UK; both vibrating-wire instruments were typically observed to shed their ice quickly upon exiting the cloud or reaching maximum ice loading. Temperature sensing measurements distributed with fiber optic tethered balloons were also compared with AMF3 radiosonde temperature measurements. Combined, the results indicate that TBS-distributed temperature sensing and supercooled liquid water measurements are in reasonably good agreement with remote sensing and radiosonde-based measurements of both properties. From these measurements and sensor evaluations, tethered-balloon flights are shown to offer an effective method of collecting data to inform and constrain numerical models, calibrate and validate remote sensing instruments, and characterize the flight environment of unmanned aircraft, circumventing the difficulties of in-cloud unmanned aircraft flights such as limited flight time and in-flight icing.

Why are mixed‐phase altocumulus clouds poorly predicted by large‐scale models? Part 1. Physical processes

AbstractMixed‐phase layer clouds are radiatively important and their correct representation in numerical models of the atmosphere is needed for both weather forecasts and climate prediction. In particular, midlevel mixed‐phase layer clouds (altocumulus) are often poorly predicted. Here the representation of altocumulus cloud in five operational models and the ERA‐Interim reanalysis is evaluated using ground‐based remote sensors. All models are found to underestimate the supercooled liquid water content by at least a factor of 2. The models with the most sophisticated microphysics (separate prognostic variables for liquid and ice) had least supercooled liquid of all models, though they could simulate the correct liquid‐over‐ice structure of individual clouds. To investigate the reasons for the lack of predicted supercooled liquid water, a single‐column model (EMPIRE) was developed incorporating the relevant physical processes for altocumulus cloud. The supercooled liquid water was found to be the most sensitive to factors that significantly affect the glaciation rate, including aspects of the ice microphysics formulation, as well as the model vertical resolution. Using observations to improve the ice particle size distribution formulation and the parametrization of ice cloud fraction also lead to a significant increase in supercooled liquid water in the simulated clouds. The study highlights the main parameterized processes that need careful attention in large‐scale models in order to adequately represent the liquid phase in mixed‐phase layer clouds. In Part 2, the reason for the sensitivity to vertical resolution is investigated and a new parameterization for models with coarse vertical resolution is proposed.

Large-Eddy Simulations of the Impact of Ground-Based Glaciogenic Seeding on Shallow Orographic Convection: A Case Study

AbstractThis study uses the WRF large-eddy simulation model at 100-m resolution to examine the impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on shallow (~2 km deep), cold-based convection producing light snow showers over the Sierra Madre in southern Wyoming on 13 February 2012, as part of the AgI Seeding Cloud Impact Investigation (ASCII). Detailed observations confirm that simulation faithfully captures the orographic flow, convection, and natural snow production, especially on the upwind side. A comparison between treated and control simulations indicates that glaciogenic seeding effectively converts cloud water in convective updrafts to ice and snow in this case, resulting in increased surface precipitation. This comparison further shows that seeding enhances liquid water depletion by vapor deposition, and enhances buoyancy, updraft strength, and cloud-top height. This suggests that the dynamic seeding concept applies, notwithstanding the clouds’ low natural supercooled liquid water content. But the simulated cloud-top-height changes are benign (typically &lt;100 m). This, combined with the fact that most natural and enhanced snow growth occurs in a temperature range in which the Bergeron diffusional growth process is effective, suggests that the modeled snowfall enhancement is largely due to static (microphysical) processes rather than dynamic ones.

Thermodynamical and cloud microphysical response during the transition from southwest to northeast monsoon

The thermodynamical and microphysical response during the transition from southwest to northeast monsoon season is studied. Unique mixed phase cloud observations from the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) and ground based observations from Integrated Ground Observation Campaign (IGOC), high resolution (3km) mesoscale forecasts with the nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are used in the study. Convective available potential energy (CAPE), liquid water path (LWP) and precipitable water (PW) increased 3days before the onset and further enhanced with the onset of the northeast monsoon. A systematic decrease in lifting condensation level (LCL) height and increase in midlevel moisture before and during the onset period are observed, which resulted in increase in moist static energy in the midlayer for supporting deeper convection during the onset. Cloud microphysical response is noted with the mixed phase cloud observations of liquid water and ice water content. The model has simulated the mixed phase clouds in the area of detailed observations. Major cloud microphysical changes observed are (a) shallow warm clouds before the onset, (b) elevated supercooled liquid water content at the tops of clouds and (c) low ice water content during the onset period compared to subsequent periods after the onset with more ice water content.

Supercooled liquid water content profiling case studies with a new vibrating wire sonde compared to a ground-based microwave radiometer

An improved version of the vibrating wire sensor, used to measure supercooled cloud liquid water content, was developed by Anasphere Inc. and tested during early 2012. The sensor works on the principle that supercooled liquid will freeze to the vibrating wire and reduce the frequency at a known rate proportional to the liquid water content as the sensor rises through the cloud attached to a weather balloon and radiosonde. The disposable Anasphere sensor interfaces with an InterMet Systems iMet radiosonde. This updated sensor reduces the weight of the instrument while updating the technology when compared to the preceding balloon-borne sensor that was developed in the 1980's by Hill and Woffinden.Balloon-borne test flights were performed from Boulder, Colorado during February and March of 2012. These flights provided comparisons to integrated liquid water and profiles of liquid water content derived from a collocated multichannel microwave radiometer, built and operated by Radiometrics Corporation. Inter-comparison data such as these are invaluable for calibration, verification and validation of remote-sensing instruments. The data gathered from this sensor are potentially important to detection of icing hazards to aircraft, validation of microphysical output from numerical models, and calibrating remote sensors measuring supercooled liquid water.

Prediction of In-Cloud Icing Conditions at Ground Level Using the WRF Model

AbstractIn-cloud icing on aircraft and ground structures can be observed every winter in many countries. In extreme cases ice can cause accidents and damage to infrastructure such as power transmission lines, telecommunication towers, wind turbines, ski lifts, and so on. This study investigates the potential for predicting episodes of in-cloud icing at ground level using a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied, with attention paid to the model’s skill to explicitly predict the amount of supercooled cloud liquid water content (SLWC) at the ground level at different horizontal resolutions and with different cloud microphysics schemes. The paper also discusses how well the median volume droplet diameter (MVD) can be diagnosed from the model output. A unique dataset of direct measurements of SLWC and MVD at ground level on a hilltop in northern Finland is used for validation. A mean absolute error of predicted SLWC as low as 0.08 g m−3 is obtained when the highest model resolution is applied (grid spacing equal to 0.333 km), together with the Thompson microphysics scheme. The quality of the SLWC predictions decreases dramatically with decreasing model resolution, and a systematic difference in predictive skill is found between the cloud microphysics schemes applied. A comparison between measured and predicted MVD shows that when prescribing the droplet concentration equal to 250 cm−3 the model predicts MVDs ranging from 12 to 20 μm, which corresponds well to the measured range. However, the variation from case to case is not captured by the current cloud microphysics schemes.

Can Anthropogenic Aerosols Decrease the Snowfall Rate?

Abstract Observations by Borys, Lowenthal, Cohn, and Brown in midlatitude orographic clouds show that for a given supercooled liquid water content, both the riming and the snowfall rates are smaller if the supercooled cloud has more cloud droplets as, for example, caused by anthropogenic aerosols. The climatic implication of this effect was studied in global climate model simulations by replacing the constant riming efficiency with a size-dependent one appropriate for planar crystals and aggregates, respectively. In the model simulations that use a size-dependent riming collection efficiency, the pollution-induced decrease in cloud droplet size causes a decrease in the riming rate in stratiform clouds despite larger liquid water contents in polluted clouds. Contrary to the above-mentioned observations, in all model simulations the snowfall rate increases because of feedbacks in the climate system. Anthropogenic aerosol particles increase the aerosol and cloud optical thickness, which reduces the solar rad...

Comparison of Three Cloud Forecast Schemes with In Situ Aircraft Measurements

Abstract In situ aircraft measurements, collected during three research projects, are used to compare forecasts from three explicit cloud schemes. These schemes include the Canadian operational Sundqvist (SUND) scheme, the Tremblay mixed-phase (MIX) cloud scheme, and the Kong and Yau (KY) cloud scheme. The supercooled liquid water forecast accuracy is also determined for the MIX and KY schemes. For the entire in situ dataset, the three cloud forecast schemes show a similar skill in detecting the presence of clouds, with a true skill statistic ranging between 0.27 and 0.34. Quantitative comparisons of total cloud water content (TWC), supercooled liquid water content (SLWC), and ice water content (IWC) suggest that adjustments for autoconversion thresholds for precipitation formation within the different cloud microphysical schemes would improve forecasts of SLWC, IWC, and TWC.

Thermodynamics of Icing Cylinder for Measurements of Liquid Water Content in Supercooled Clouds

Abstract The Rosemount Icing Detector (RICE) has been used extensively over the last three decades for aircraft measurements of the rate of ice riming in supercooled liquid and mixed clouds. Because of difficulties related to calibration and postprocessing, the RICE probe was mainly used as an indicator of the presence of supercooled liquid water. The accuracy of the RICE probe for measurements of supercooled liquid water content is studied here. The theory of ice accretion on an unheated cylinder is applied to the RICE probe. A steady-state heat balance on the surface of a riming cylinder is considered in detail. It is shown that the threshold sensitivity of the RICE probe is limited by the rate of sublimation of ice and it may exceed 0.01 g m−3 at airspeed 200 m s−1. The rate of ice sublimation limits the use of the RICE probe for measurements of low liquid water contents in clouds. The maximum possible measured liquid water content is restricted by the Ludlam limit. A new calibration technique of the R...

Icing Conditions Encountered by a Research Aircraft

Abstract The characteristics of clouds which have led to airframe icing on an instrumented Beechcraft Super King Air are summarized. The icing encounters occurred at altitudes from 0–8000 m MSL, in summer and winter, in stratiform and cumuliform clouds, and at temperatures from 0 to −30°C. The characteristics of icing encounters in different areas and in different seasons are compared. The fraction of measurements exceeding various threshold values of liquid water content, average liquid water content over a given distance, volume-median droplet diameter, droplet concentration, ice crystal concentration, and potential ice accumulation are given. The effects of these cloud characteristics on aircraft performance were measured by comparing the rate of climb of the aircraft with ice to the rate of climb for the clean aircraft under the same conditions. Most icing encounters led to a reduction in the rate of climb that increased linearly with the path integral of the supercooled liquid water content. The volume-median diameter had little correlation with changes in performance. Some potentially hazardous conditions, which decreased the rate of climb capability of this aircraft by 7–9 m s−1, are also discussed.

Determination of Supercooled Liquid Water Content by Measuring Rime Rate

A ground-based technique is described for determining the liquid water content of supercooled clouds orfog by measuring the mass rate of rime accumulation on a small rotating wire. Development of the techniqueis described, examples of the data are presented, and comparisons are made with two conventional methodsof liquid water measurement. The comparisons were quite favorable for the winter orographic clouds studied.

On the Heat Transfer to Ice Spheres and the Freezing of Spongy Hail

Abstract The rate of heat transfer during melting of solid ice spheres and freezing of spongy ice spheres has been measured over a range of experimental conditions. The results agree quite well with other published heat transfer data, and show that heat transfer to a melting hailstone, whose surface is covered by a film of water, is described by the same expression as that for a freezing hailstone with a dry surface. Using the measured heat transfer rates in a numerical model of the freezing of spongy hailstones in an updraft, it is shown that there is probably time for smaller spongy hailstones to freeze before reaching the ground, but that freezing of spongy hailstones 3 cm in diameter or larger is improbable. This finding, in conjunction with field measurements of liquid water contents of natural hailstones, casts doubt upon hailstorm models which imply growth of large spongy hailstones in an “accumulation zone” of high supercooled liquid water content aloft.