Summer Sea Ice Research Articles

Will the summer sea ice in the Arctic reach a tipping point?

The Arctic sea-ice cover has decreased in extent, area, and thickness over the last six decades. Most global climate models project that the summer sea-ice extent (SIE) will decline to less than 1 million (mill.) km2 in this century, ranging from 2030 to the end of the century, indicating large uncertainty. However, some models, using the same emission scenarios as required by the Paris Agreement to keep the global temperature below 2°C, indicate that the SIE could be about 2 mill. km2 in 2100 but with a large uncertainty of ±1.5 mill. km2. Here, the authors take another approach by exploring the direct relationship between the SIE and atmospheric CO2 concentration for the summer–fall months. The authors correlate the SIE and ln(CO2/CO2r) during the period 1979–2022, where CO2r is the reference value in 1979. Using these transient regression equations with an R2 between 0.78 and 0.87, the authors calculate the value that the CO2 concentration needs to reach for zero SIE. The results are that, for July, the CO2 concentration needs to reach 691 ± 16.5 ppm, for August 604 ± 16.5 ppm, for September 563 ± 17.5 ppm, and for October 620 ± 21 ppm. These values of CO2 for an ice-free Arctic are much higher than the targets of the Paris Agreement, which are 450 ppm in 2060 and 425 ppm in 2100, under the IPCC SSP1-2.6 scenario. If these targets can be reached or even almost reached, the “no tipping point” hypothesis for the summer SIE may be valid.

Separation of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Governing Regional Variability of Arctic Sea Ice in Summer

Separation of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Governing Regional Variability of Arctic Sea Ice in Summer

Radiative Effects and Costing Assessment of Arctic Sea Ice Albedo Changes

The rapid loss of Arctic Sea ice cover and thickness diminishes the surface albedo, which increases the ocean’s absorption of solar heat and exacerbates the Arctic amplification effect. According to the most recent research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, AR6), the extent of summer sea ice is anticipated to decrease below 1 million km2 by the 2050s as a result of the extreme climate. Nevertheless, past and future changes in sea ice albedo radiative forcing and the resulting economic cost remain to be explored in systematic and multi-disciplinary manners. In this study, we first analyze the evolution of Arctic sea ice radiative forcing (SIRF) from 1982 to 2100 using a radiative kernel method based on albedo data from the Polar Pathfinder-Extent (APP-x) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Then, the SIRF is converted to CO2 equivalent emissions via the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and Economy (DICE) model. Finally, the associated costs are calculated using the substitute cost method, based on the social cost of carbon to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. The results show that the average Arctic SIRF was −0.75 ± 0.1 W·m−2 between 1982 and 2020, and increased by 0.12 W·m−2 during this period. The SIRF in April–June accounts for nearly 77% of the average annual value, with a maximum absolute value of –3.2 W·m−2 in May. Through model transformation, it is shown that the Arctic SIRF rising leads to global warming comparable to the effect of an increase of 34.5 Gt of CO2 in the atmosphere relative to pre-industrialization, and results in a loss of 24.4–48.8 trillion USD for climate regulation service (CRS). From 2020 to 2100, in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, the Arctic SIRF is projected to increase by 0.31 W·m−2. Combined with the discount rate, the estimated average annual cost over the period ranges from 6.7–13.3 trillion USD. These findings provide a systematic understanding of the radiative effect of Arctic sea ice change on the global climate and the corresponding economic cost.

Sensitivity of the Relationship Between Antarctic Ice Shelves and Iron Supply to Projected Changes in the Atmospheric Forcing

AbstractUpward advection or mixing of iron‐rich deep waters due to circulation changes driven by the rate of basal ice shelf melt was shown to be a primary control on chlorophyll a production in coastal polynyas over the Antarctic continental shelf. Here, the effects of atmospheric changes projected in 2100 on this relationship were examined with a 5‐km resolution ocean/sea ice/ice shelf model of the Southern Ocean with different simulated dissolved iron sources and idealized biological uptake. The atmospheric changes are added as idealized increments to the forcing. Inclusion of a poleward shift and strengthening of the winds, increased precipitation, and warmer atmospheric temperatures resulted in doubling of the heat advected onto the continental shelf and an 83% increase in the total Antarctic ice shelf basal melt. The total dissolved iron supply to the surface waters over the continental shelf increased by 62%, while the surface iron supply due just to basal melt driven overturning increased by 48%. However, even though the ice shelf driven contribution becomes less important to the total iron supply on average (29% of total), the ice shelf involvement becomes relatively even more important in some locations, such as the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. The modified atmospheric conditions also produced a reduction in summer sea ice extent and a shoaling of the summer mixed layers. These simulated responses to projected changes suggest relief of light and nutrient limitation for phytoplankton blooms over the Antarctic continental shelf and perhaps an increase in annual production in years to come.

High winds and melting sea ice trigger landward movement in a polar bear population of concern

AbstractSome animal species are responding to climate change by altering the timing of events like mating and migration. Such behavioral plasticity can be adaptive, but it is not always. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation have mostly remained on ice year‐round, but as the climate warms and summer sea ice declines, a growing proportion of the subpopulation is summering ashore. The triggers of this novel behavior are not well understood. Our study uses a parametric time‐to‐event model to test whether biological and/or time‐varying environmental variables thought to influence polar bear movement and habitat selection also drive decisions to swim ashore. We quantified the time polar bears spent occupying offshore sea ice of varying ice concentrations. We evaluated variations in the ordinal date bears moved to land with respect to local environmental conditions such as sea ice concentration and wind across 10 years (2005–2015). Results from our study suggest that storm events (i.e., sustained high wind speeds) may force polar bears from severely degraded ice habitat and catalyze seasonal movements to land. Unlike polar bears long adapted to complete summer ice melt, southern Beaufort Sea bears that summer ashore appear more tolerant of poor‐quality sea ice habitat and are less willing to abandon it. Our findings provide a window into emergent, climatically mediated behavior in an Arctic marine mammal vulnerable to rapid habitat decline.

Regional and Remote Influence on the Sea Ice in the Kara Sea

This article examines the relationship between interannual changes in the sea ice extent and thickness in the Kara Sea with climate change in the region and with sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. The data from observations at meteorological stations, ERA5 reanalysis, and data on the sea ice from the AARI website for 1979–2021 were used. The growth of ice in winter is most influenced by air temperature and downward long-wave radiation. In summer, interannual changes in sea ice extent are closely related to air temperature. The remote influence of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropics of the North Atlantic on the summer (July–September) sea ice in the Kara Sea is discovered 33–35 months later. A significant correlation between climate and sea ice anomalies can serve as the basis for predicting up to four years ahead.

Multi-proxy record of ocean-climate variability during the last two millennia on the Mackenzie Shelf, Beaufort Sea

A 2,000 year-long oceanographic history, in sub-centennial resolution, from a Canadian Beaufort Sea continental shelf site (60meters water depth) near the Mackenzie River outlet is reconstructed from ostracode and foraminifera faunal assemblages, shell stable isotopes (delta 18O, delta 13C) and sediment biogenic silica. The chronology of three sediment cores making up the composite section was established using 137Cs and 210Pb dating for the most recent 150 years and combined with linear interpolation of radiocarbon dates from bivalve shells and foraminifera tests.Continuous centimeter-sampling of the multicore and high-resolution sampling of a gravity and piston core yielded a time-averaged faunal record of every approximately 40 years from 0 to 1850 CE and every approximately 24 years from 1850 to 2013 CE. Proxy records were consistent with temperature oscillations and related changes in organic carbon cycling associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Abundance changes in dominant microfossil species, such as the ostracode Paracyprideis pseudopunctillata and agglutinated foraminifers Spiroplectammina biformis and S. earlandi, are used as indicators of less saline, and possibly corrosive/turbid bottom conditions associated with the MCA (approximately 800 to 1200 CE) and the most recent approximately 60 years (1950–2013). During these periods, pronounced fluctuations in these species suggest that prolonged seasonal sea-ice melting, changes in riverine inputs and sediment dynamics affected the benthic environment. Taxa analyzed for stable oxygen isotope composition of carbonates show the lowest delta 18O values during intervals within the MCA and the highest during the late LIA, which is consistent with a 1 degree to 2 degree C cooling of bottom waters. Faunal and isotopic changes during the cooler LIA (1300 to 1850 CE) are most apparent at approximately 1500 to 1850 CE and are particularly pronounced during 1850 to approximately 1900 CE, with an approximate 0.5 per mil increase in delta 18O values of carbonates from median values in the analyzed taxa. This very cold 50-year period suggests that enhanced summer sea ice suppressed productivity,which is indicated by low sediment biogenic silica values and lower delta 13C values in analyzed species. From 1900CE to present, declines in calcareous faunal assemblages and changes in dominant species (Cassidulina reniforme and P. pseudopunctillata) are associated with less hospitable bottom waters, indicated by a peak in agglutinated foraminifera from 1950 to 1990 CE.

Semantic segmentation of Arctic Sea ice in summer from remote sensing satellite images based on BAU-NET

To effectively solve the accurate identification of gray ice, melt ponds water, floe, brash ice, and thin ice in the melting state of the Arctic Sea ice during summer, we propose adding a batch normalization layer and adaptive moment estimation optimizer of a U-NET (BAU-NET) method for Arctic Sea ice semantic segmentation in summer from remote sensing satellite optical images. The U-NET network structure is optimized to 18 convolution layers, and a batch normalization layer and a nonlinear activation function rectified linear unit are added behind each convolution layer. Then the hyper-parameters of the network structure are adjusted. The cross-entropy loss function based on SOFTMAX and L2 regularization are used in training the model, and the adaptive moment estimation optimizer is used for iterative training until the error convergence. The experimental results show that the accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score of sea ice extraction results reaches more than 97.26%. Compared with the DeepLabv3 and U-Net methods, the sea ice prediction time efficiency is improved by 90.99s and 1.57s, respectively, and the accuracy is improved by 6.59% and 8.05%, respectively, which indicate that the sea ice prediction time efficiency and accuracy of the BAU-NET method are significantly improved.

A regime shift in the Southeast Greenland marine ecosystem.

Two major oceanographic changes have recently propagated through several trophic levels in coastal areas of Southeast Greenland (SEG). Firstly, the amount of drift-ice exported from the Fram Strait and transported with the East Greenland Current (EGC) has decreased significantly over the past two decades, and a main tipping element (summer sea ice) has virtually disappeared since 2003 leading to a regime shift in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the region. The following 20-year period with low or no coastal sea ice is unique in the 200-year history of ice observations in the region, and the regime shift is also obvious in the volume of ice export through the Fram Strait after 2013. In the same period, the temperature of the EGC south of 73.5N has increased significantly (>2°C) since 1980. Secondly, the warm Irminger Current, which advects warm, saline Atlantic Water into the region, has become warmer since 1990. The lack of pack ice in summer together with a warming ocean generated cascading effects on the ecosystem in SEG that are manifested in a changed fish fauna with an influx of boreal species in the south and the subarctic capelin further north. At higher trophic levels there has been an increase in the abundance of several boreal cetaceans (humpback, fin, killer, and pilot whales and dolphins) that are either new to this area or occur in historically large numbers. It is estimated that the new cetacean species in SEG are responsible for an annual predation level of 700,000 tons of fish. In addition, predation on krill species is estimated at >1,500,000 tons mainly consumed by fin whales. Simultaneously, there has been a reduction in the abundance and catches of narwhals and walruses in SEG and it is suggested that these species have been impacted by the habitat changes.

Influence of fast ice on future ice shelf melting in the Totten Glacier area, East Antarctica

Abstract. The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica is of major climatic interest because of the large fluctuations in its grounding line and potential vulnerability to climate change. Here, we use a series of high-resolution, regional NEMO-LIM-based (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean coupled with the Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model) experiments, which include an explicit treatment of ocean–ice shelf interactions, as well as a representation of grounded icebergs and fast ice, to investigate the changes in ocean–ice interactions in the Totten Glacier area between the recent past (1995–2014) and the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under SSP4–4.5 climate change conditions. By the end of the 21st century, the wide areas of multiyear fast ice simulated in the recent past are replaced by small patches of first year fast ice along the coast, which decreases the total summer sea ice extent. The Antarctic Slope Current is accelerated by about 116 %, which decreases the heat exchange across the shelf and tends to reduce the ice shelf basal melt rate, but this effect is counterbalanced by the effect of the oceanic warming. As a consequence, despite the accelerated Antarctic Slope Current, the Totten ice shelf melt rate is increased by 91 % due to the intrusion of warmer water into its cavity. The representation of fast ice dampens the ice shelf melt rate increase throughout the 21st century, as the Totten ice shelf melt rate increase reaches 136 % when fast ice is not taken into account. The Moscow University ice shelf melt rate increase is even more impacted by the representation of fast ice, with a 36 % melt rate increase with fast ice, compared to a 75 % increase without a fast ice representation. This influence of the representation of fast ice in our simulations on the basal melting rate trend over the 21st century is explained by the large impact of the fast ice for present-day conditions (∼25 % difference in m yr−1), while the impact decreases significantly at the end of the 21st century (∼4 % difference in m yr−1). As a consequence, the reduction in the fast ice extent in the future induces a decrease in the fast ice effect on the ice shelf melt rate that partly compensates for the increase due to warming of the ocean. This highlights the importance of including a representation of fast ice to simulate realistic ice shelf melt rate increase in East Antarctica under warming conditions.

Asymmetry variations in Arctic summer onset and ending: Role of sea-ice melting

Previous studies found that in Arctic regions with severe sea ice melting, summer ending (SE) variations are significantly larger than summer onset (SO) variations in the past few decades. Based on short-term observations, researchers preliminarily suggested that radiation variations caused by an earlier melting onset could be the possible reason for asymmetric Arctic SO/ending variations (AASV). Based on observations and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis I dataset, here we quantitatively characterize AASV by calculating the difference between the 11 year sliding trend of Arctic SO and SE. The results show that AASV positively correlates with sea ice melting in summer. The increased summer sea ice melting increases the area to absorb short-wave radiation in summer and then release more long-wave radiation to heat the lower atmosphere and delay the peak time of long-wave radiation releasing. The variations in radiation lead to a significant delay of the Arctic SE, with no significant variations in SO. We introduce CMIP6 historical and future simulations of 15 models to verify further the relationship between AASV and summer sea ice melting. Historical run reproduces the observed asymmetry, and future simulations under various warming levels show that AASV will vanish with disappeared melting variations or be strengthened with increased melting. The latter could delay freeze-up and further exacerbate the following years’ melting, which will enhance AASV. Furthermore, AASV will delay the onset and peak time of Arctic amplification.

Observed and forecasted changes in land use by polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 1985–2040

Monitoring changes in the distribution of large carnivores is important for managing human safety and supporting conservation. Throughout much of their range, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using terrestrial habitats in response to Arctic sea ice decline. Their increased presence in coastal areas has implications for bear-human conflict, inter-species interactions, and polar bear health and survival. We examined observed trends in land use over three decades by polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) where bears have traditionally spent most of the year on the sea ice. Using data from 408 adult females fitted with satellite radio-collars, we examined trends in the annual proportion of bears coming onshore (hereafter referred to as “percent of bears”) during the summer for ≥ 21 days, arrival and departure dates, duration spent onshore and relationships with sea ice metrics. We then estimated future land use through 2040 by extrapolating trends and by combining observed relationships between land use and sea ice with projections of future sea ice from an ensemble of earth system models. The observed percent of bears summering onshore and their duration onshore was correlated with the percent of open water that occurred within their population’s range between July and October. As sea ice declined, the percent of bears summering onshore increased from ∼5–30% in the SB and ∼10–50% in the CS and duration onshore increased by > 30 days to 60–70 days in both populations. Using a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and adjustments for faster than forecasted sea ice loss we estimated that 50–62% of SB and 79–88% of CS bears will spend 90–108 and 110–126 days onshore during summer in the SB and CS, respectively, by 2040. Sea ice projections varied little between greenhouse gas emission scenarios prior to 2040 but diverged thereafter. Observed and forecasted increases in polar bear land occupancy puts more bears in proximity to human activities and settlements for longer durations while extending the lack of access to their primary prey. Because human conflict is one of the primary factors affecting the conservation of large carnivores worldwide, mitigation of bear-human interactions on land will be an increasingly important component of polar bear conservation.

Nudging Observed Winds in the Arctic to Quantify Associated Sea Ice Loss from 1979 to 2020

Abstract Over the past decades, Arctic climate has exhibited significant changes characterized by strong pan-Arctic warming and a large-scale wind shift trending toward an anticyclonic anomaly centered over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. Recent work has suggested that this wind change is able to warm the Arctic atmosphere and melt sea ice through dynamically driven warming, moistening, and ice drift effects. However, previous examination of this linkage lacks a capability to fully consider the complex nature of the sea ice response to the wind change. In this study, we perform a more rigorous test of this idea by using a coupled high-resolution modeling framework with observed winds nudged over the Arctic that allows for a comparison of these wind-induced effects with observations and simulated effects forced by anthropogenic forcing. Our nudging simulation can well capture observed variability of atmospheric temperature, sea ice, and the radiation balance during the Arctic summer and appears to simulate around 30% of Arctic warming and sea ice melting over the whole period (1979–2020) and more than 50% over the period 2000–12, which is the fastest Arctic warming decade in the satellite era. In particular, in the summer of 2020, a similar wind pattern reemerged to induce the second-lowest sea ice extent since 1979, suggesting that large-scale wind changes in the Arctic are essential in shaping Arctic climate on interannual and interdecadal time scales and may be critical to determine Arctic climate variability in the coming decades. Significance Statement This work conducts a set of new CESM1 nudging simulations to quantify the impact of the observed evolution of large-scale high-latitude atmospheric winds on Arctic climate variability over the past four decades. Variations in climate parameters, including sea ice, radiation, and atmospheric temperatures are well replicated in the model when observed winds are imposed in the Arctic. By investigating simulated sea ice melting processes in the simulation, we illustrate and estimate how large-scale winds in the Arctic help melt sea ice in summer. The nudging method has the potential to make Arctic climate attribution more tangible and to unravel the important physical processes underlying recent abrupt climate change in the Arctic.

An Optimal Atmospheric Circulation Mode in the Arctic Favoring Strong Summertime Sea Ice Melting and Ice–Albedo Feedback

Abstract The rapid decline of summer Arctic sea ice over the past few decades has been driven by a combination of increasing greenhouse gases and internal variability of the climate system. However, uncertainties remain regarding spatial and temporal characteristics of the optimal internal atmospheric mode that most favors summer sea ice melting on low-frequency time scales. To pinpoint this mode, we conduct a suite of simulations in which atmospheric circulation is constrained by nudging tropospheric Arctic (60°–90°N) winds within the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), to those from reanalysis. Each reanalysis year is repeated for over 10 model years using fixed greenhouse gas concentrations and the same initial conditions. Composites show the strongest September sea ice losses are closely preceded by a common June–August (JJA) barotropic anticyclonic circulation in the Arctic favoring shortwave absorption at the surface. Successive years of strong wind-driven melting also enhance declines in Arctic sea ice through enhancement of the ice–albedo feedback, reaching a quasi-equilibrium response after repeated wind forcing for over 5–6 years, as the effectiveness of the wind-driven ice–albedo feedback becomes saturated. Strong melting favored by a similar wind pattern as observations is detected in a long preindustrial simulation and 400-yr paleoclimate reanalysis, suggesting that a summer barotropic anticyclonic wind pattern represents the optimal internal atmospheric mode maximizing sea ice melting in both the model and natural world over a range of time scales. Considering strong contributions of this mode to changes in Arctic climate, a better understanding of its origin and maintenance is vital to improving future projections of Arctic sea ice.

Review article: Global monitoring of snow water equivalent using high-frequency radar remote sensing

Abstract. Seasonal snow cover is the largest single component of the cryosphere in areal extent, covering an average of 46 × 106 km2 of Earth's surface (31 % of the land area) each year, and is thus an important expression and driver of the Earth's climate. In recent years, Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover has been declining at about the same rate (∼ −13 % per decade) as Arctic summer sea ice. More than one-sixth of the world's population relies on seasonal snowpack and glaciers for a water supply that is likely to decrease this century. Snow is also a critical component of Earth's cold regions' ecosystems, in which wildlife, vegetation, and snow are strongly interconnected. Snow water equivalent (SWE) describes the quantity of water stored as snow on the land surface and is of fundamental importance to water, energy, and geochemical cycles. Quality global SWE estimates are lacking. Given the vast seasonal extent combined with the spatially variable nature of snow distribution at regional and local scales, surface observations are not able to provide sufficient SWE information. Satellite observations presently cannot provide SWE information at the spatial and temporal resolutions required to address science and high-socio-economic-value applications such as water resource management and streamflow forecasting. In this paper, we review the potential contribution of X- and Ku-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) for global monitoring of SWE. SAR can image the surface during both day and night regardless of cloud cover, allowing high-frequency revisit at high spatial resolution as demonstrated by missions such as Sentinel-1. The physical basis for estimating SWE from X- and Ku-band radar measurements at local scales is volume scattering by millimeter-scale snow grains. Inference of global snow properties from SAR requires an interdisciplinary approach based on field observations of snow microstructure, physical snow modeling, electromagnetic theory, and retrieval strategies over a range of scales. New field measurement capabilities have enabled significant advances in understanding snow microstructure such as grain size, density, and layering. We describe radar interactions with snow-covered landscapes, the small but rapidly growing number of field datasets used to evaluate retrieval algorithms, the characterization of snowpack properties using radar measurements, and the refinement of retrieval algorithms via synergy with other microwave remote sensing approaches. This review serves to inform the broader snow research, monitoring, and application communities on progress made in recent decades and sets the stage for a new era in SWE remote sensing from SAR measurements.

Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Synoptic Activity in Response to Polar Sea Ice Melt Induced by Albedo Reduction in a Climate Model

AbstractThe effect of polar sea ice melt on low latitude climate is little known. To understand the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) synoptic activity to the sea ice melt, we have run a suite of coupled and uncoupled climate model simulations. In one set of simulations, the albedo of sea ice is reduced so that it would melt due to increased absorption of solar radiation. The coupled model simulation with a reduced sea ice albedo resulted in an almost complete melting of the sea ice in summer in both hemispheres. A high‐resolution (50 km) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is forced with the climatological annual cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentrations (SIC) from the coupled model outputs to better resolve synoptic scale variability. In the high‐resolution AGCM simulations forced with SST and SIC from the sea ice melt experiments, the ISM circulation weakened substantially, and the monsoon low‐pressure systems (LPS) activity experienced an overall decline of 23%, with a widespread weakening in the south and a moderate strengthening over the north, in response to a decline of 78% (24%) in SIC over the Arctic (Antarctic) in the June–September season. The changes in the LPS activity in response to polar sea ice melt are found to be mostly driven by the changes in low‐level absolute vorticity and vertical shear over the Bay of Bengal.

Arctic summer sea ice phenology including ponding from 1982 to 2017

Arctic summer sea ice phenology including ponding from 1982 to 2017

Antarctic sea ice over the past 130 000 years – Part 1: a review of what proxy records tell us

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice plays a critical role in the Earth system, influencing energy, heat and freshwater fluxes, air–sea gas exchange, ice shelf dynamics, ocean circulation, nutrient cycling, marine productivity and global carbon cycling. However, accurate simulation of recent sea-ice changes remains challenging and, therefore, projecting future sea-ice changes and their influence on the global climate system is uncertain. Reconstructing past changes in sea-ice cover can provide additional insights into climate feedbacks within the Earth system at different timescales. This paper is the first of two review papers from the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) working group. In this first paper, we review marine- and ice core-based sea-ice proxies and reconstructions of sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Antarctic sea-ice reconstructions rely mainly on diatom fossil assemblages and highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) alkenes in marine sediments, supported by chemical proxies in Antarctic ice cores. Most reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) suggest that winter sea ice expanded all around Antarctica and covered almost twice its modern surface extent. In contrast, LGM summer sea ice expanded mainly in the regions off the Weddell and Ross seas. The difference between winter and summer sea ice during the LGM led to a larger seasonal cycle than today. More recent efforts have focused on reconstructing Antarctic sea ice during warm periods, such as the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG), which may serve as an analogue for the future. Notwithstanding regional heterogeneities, existing reconstructions suggest that sea-ice cover increased from the warm mid-Holocene to the colder Late Holocene with pervasive decadal- to millennial-scale variability throughout the Holocene. Studies, supported by proxy modelling experiments, suggest that sea-ice cover was halved during the warmer LIG when global average temperatures were ∼2 ∘C above the pre-industrial (PI). There are limited marine (14) and ice core (4) sea-ice proxy records covering the complete 130 000 year (130 ka) last glacial cycle. The glacial–interglacial pattern of sea-ice advance and retreat appears relatively similar in each basin of the Southern Ocean. Rapid retreat of sea ice occurred during Terminations II and I while the expansion of sea ice during the last glaciation appears more gradual especially in ice core data sets. Marine records suggest that the first prominent expansion occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 and that sea ice reached maximum extent during MIS 2. We, however, note that additional sea-ice records and transient model simulations are required to better identify the underlying drivers and feedbacks of Antarctic sea-ice changes over the last 130 ka. This understanding is critical to improve future predictions.

Pluridecadal Temporal Patterns of Tintinnids (Ciliophora, Spirotrichea) in Terra Nova Bay (Ross Sea, Antarctica)

During the next century, the Ross Sea is expected to reduce summer sea ice concentrations and consolidate the presence of shallower mixed layers. Those changes may have a potentially catastrophic effect on the zooplankton community. To investigate if Ross Sea’s past physical and biological condition changes have affected the tintinnids population, and to understand future tintinnids’ role in the plankton community, seawater samples collected in the Terra Nova Bay polynya area during eleven summer expeditions from 1988 to 2017 were analyzed. During this time period, tintinnids’ abundance ranged from 0 to a maximum of 4980 indL−1. The most representative species were Cymatocylis drygalskii, Codonellopsis gaussi and Laackmanniella naviculifaera. These species can be considered keystone species and they can be used to monitor the long-term evolution of the whole microzooplankton community in Terra Nova Bay polynya. The tintinnids’ abundance presented minimum values in 2001 after which there has been a significant increase in the most recent years. The increase in tintinnids’ abundance showed a positive correlation with the temperature, while salinity did not indicate any relationship. In particular, the majority of genera detected showed a significant temperature correlation, with the only exception of Amphorides genus, recorded for the first time in the study area. Our results provide new insights into the spatial distribution and structure of the Antarctic tintinnids community.

Comparison between Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variability and Decadal Change of Summer Arctic Sea Ice

Abstract Arctic sea ice in summer shows both interannual and long-term variations, and atmospheric circulation anomalies are known to play an important role. This study compares the summertime large-scale circulation anomalies associated with Arctic sea ice on interannual and decadal time scales. The results indicate that the circulation anomalies associated with decreased sea ice on an interannual time scale are characterized by a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly in the central Arctic, and the thermodynamic process is important for the circulation–sea ice coupling. On one hand, the descending adiabatic warming in low levels associated with the central Arctic anticyclonic anomaly leads to decreased sea ice by enhancing the downwelling longwave radiation. On the other hand, the anticyclonic anomaly also induces more moisture in low levels. The enhanced moisture and temperature (coupled with each other) further favor the reduction of sea ice by emitting more downwelling longwave radiation. By contrast, associated with the decadal sea ice decline, there is an anticyclonic anomaly over Greenland and a cyclonic anomaly over northern Siberia, and the wind-driven sea ice drift dominates the sea ice decline. The transpolar circulation anomalies between the anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies promote transport of the ice away from the coasts of Siberia toward the North Pole, and drive the ice out of the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic. These circulation anomalies also induce sea ice decline through thermodynamic process, but it is not as significant as that on an interannual time scale.