Summer Flows Research Articles

The influence of thermal cues on the reproductive phenology of Silver Shiner, Notropis photogenis.

Reproductive phenology and the length of the growing season vary in response to interannual environmental variability, with implications for population dynamics of freshwater fishes. Understanding the reproductive phenology of imperilled species in relation to environmental conditions is needed to better evaluate potential responses to changing environmental conditions, estimate future population dynamics and develop comprehensive recovery strategies. We examined Silver Shiner, a species listed as "Threatened" under Canada's Species at Risk Act, during spring 2018 and 2019 to better understand the reproductive phenology of the species at the northern edge of its range in Canada. The initiation of Silver Shiner spawning occurred on the descending limb of the hydrograph and was completed before the onset of the extended period of low summer flow. In addition, both the initiation and cessation of spawning occurred in response to a cumulative growing degree day base 5 (GDD5 ) cue, with logistic regression models indicating a 50% probability the population initiated and ceased spawning when GDD5 reached 68°C•days and 368°C•days, respectively. Logistic regression incorporating GDD5 effectively predicted spawning initiation and cessation, providing useful models for examining the impacts of alterations to the thermal regime on reproductive phenology and improving the ability to evaluate changes in the larval growth period. Furthermore, the models can facilitate the development of real-time estimates of spawning activity, and therefore ensure that disturbance to the species is minimized during the sensitive reproductive period.

Impacts of future climate on the hydrology of a transboundary river basin in northeastern North America

Climate change introduces substantial uncertainty in water resources planning and management. This is particularly the case for the river systems in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that are more vulnerable to global change. The situation becomes more challenging when there is a limited hydrological understanding of the basin. In this study, we assessed the impacts of future climate on the hydrology of the Saint John River Basin (SJRB), which is an important transboundary coastal river basin in northeastern North America. We also additionally performed model benchmarking for the SJRB using four different meteorological forcing datasets. Using the best performing forcing data and model parameters, we studied the water balance of the basin. Our results show that meteorological forcing data play a pivotal role in model performance and therefore can introduce a large degree of uncertainty in hydrological modelling. The analysis of the water balance highlights that runoff and evapotranspiration account for about 99% of the total basin precipitation, with each constituting approximately 50%. The simulation of future flows projects higher winter discharges, but summer flows are estimated to decrease in the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods compared to the baseline period (1991–2020). However, the evaluation of model errors indicates higher confidence in the result that future winter flows will increase, but lower confidence in the results that future summer flows will decrease.

Hydrological Droughts in the Białowieża Primeval Forest, Poland, in the Years 1951–2020

The occurrence of hydrological drought, caused by rainfall deficiency, poses a threat to forest areas—not only due to the danger of fire, but as a result of changes in habitat conditions. It is predicted that more frequent periods of drought and high temperatures will reduce the stability of forests and increase their susceptibility to industrial pollution, pressure from insect pests, fungal pathogens, and fires. The main aim of this study was to investigate the current streamflow droughts in the catchment area of the Narewka River as an indicator of hydrological droughts in the Białowieża Primeval Forest for the period 1951–2020. The research presented in this paper shows that low flows of surface waters have appeared as an indicator of hydrological droughts almost every year since 1983. The analysis of the trend over the past 70 years shows that the aggregated annual volumes of low flows and the number of days with low flows are increasing significantly. This indicates a significant and relatively permanent change in the seasonal structure of the river runoff in the event of low summer flow.

Thermal Fluxes and Solar Energy Storage in a Massive Brick Wall in Natural Conditions

The thermal state of building elements is a combination of steady and transient states. Changes in temperature and energy streams in the wall of the building in the transient state are particularly intense in its outer layer. The factors causing them are solar radiation, ambient temperature and long-wave radiation. Due to the greater variability of these factors during the summer, the importance of the transient state increases at this time. The study analysed heat transfer in three aspects, temperatures in the outer, middle and inner parts of the wall, heat fluxes between these layers and absorption of solar energy, heat transfer coefficient on the wall exterior was also calculated. The analysis is based on temperature measurements at several depths in the wall and measurements of solar radiation. The subject of research is a solid brick wall. The results show that the characteristics of heat flow in winter and summer for the local climate show distinct differences. In the winter, the maximum temperature difference between the external and internal surface of the wall was 10 °C and in summer, 20 °C. In the winter, the negative flux on the internal surface reached 10 W/m2 and on the external 40 W/m2 and was constant throughout the day. The mean heat transfer coefficient on the exterior surface for winter week was 8 W/(mK). A Nusselt and Biot number for dimensionless convection analysis was calculated. The research contributes to the calculation of the variability of heat or cold demand in a daily period and to learn about the processes of energy storage in the wall using sensible heat.

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Diffusion Fluxes: Insight from High-Resolution Technology and Hydrodynamic Modeling

Nitrogen and phosphorus are key elements in controlling eutrophication in the aquatic system. Water and sediment samples were collected from Hongfeng Lake, a seasonally stratified reservoir in southwest China, in winter and summer. Diffusion fluxes of NH4+, NO3−, and labile P in summer using diffusive gradients in thin films technology were 3.4, −37.2, and 0.9 mg m−2 day−1, respectively, based on Fick’s first law. The diffusion flux of labile P was 2.05 mg m−2 day−1 in winter. The contributions fraction of the labile P diffusion flux from sediment to the overlying water were higher in winter than those in summer, because of the relatively lower external input, concentrations and higher diffusion fluxes in winter. After the external input decreased, all of the three diffusion fluxes were lower than the previous record. To understand the influence effect of hydrodynamics, environmental fluid dynamics code modeling was used to simulate the flow and temperature field in winter and summer. Modeling results showed that velocity in summer was higher than that in winter due to concentrated rainfall within the catchment. Moreover, the velocity and temperature in the euphotic zone were higher than that of the hypolimnion in summer. Less variation of velocity and temperature in vertical profile in winter than that in summer was observed, which may be attributable to the high specific heat capacity and the low heat conductivity of water. There was no significant correlation among velocity, hydrochemistry, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations. Hydrodynamics, solar radiation, and water depth affect the position of the thermocline, which was consequently to water temperature, hydrochemistry, dissolved nitrogen, and phosphorus concentration. Correlation analysis suggested that the higher bottom velocity and total bed shear may accelerate labile P, NH4+, and NO3− diffusion fluxes. These results provide evidence and suggestions for preventing and controlling reservoir eutrophication and water safety management.

Modeling and comparing streamflow simulations in two different montane watersheds of western himalayas

The montane watersheds are often data-scarce, creating difficulty in modeling the crucial hydrological simulations. A good modeling approach with the least prediction uncertainity is important in predicting the streamflow simulations in such data scarce watersheds. In this study , we applied SWAT model in two high-altitude mountainous watersheds (Liddar-the glaciated and Sandran-non glaciated) of Western Himalayas. Our results indicate that calibration at different sites responds with different simulated streamflow varing spatially from site to site as well as from watershed to watershed. Our analysis suggests that runoff processes, orographic controls, and snow processes are more dominant processes in the glaciated watershed. However groundwater processes are significantly similar in both the watersheds. Temporally, simulated streamflow processes in these watersheds respond with steep rising and falling limbs from May to September but show a flatter recession from October to April. This results from the onset of snowmelt discharge, creating peak spikes during spring and summer flows. This is followed by low flow condition (baseflow) reducing the peak flow from autumn to winter. During the extremely low flow conditions and flood events the model overestimates and underestimates the streamflow respectively. The parameter uncertainty in terms of P_factor and R_factor was relatively lower in the glaciated watershed compared to the non-glaciated watershed. However, this multi-site approach resulted in more realistic parameter values which better represents the spatially influenced hydrological simulations. The results suggest to spatially calibrate and validate the SWAT model in large mountainous watersheds to improve the hydrological simulations.

Climate Change and Water Exploitation as Co-Impact Sources on River Benthic Macroinvertebrates

Climate change can affect freshwater communities superimposing on other major stressors, such as water exploitation, with effects still poorly understood. The exacerbation of naturally-occurring periods of low flows has been reported as a major hydrological effect of water diversions, with severe impacts on river benthic macroinvertebrate communities. This study aimed at assessing long-term modifications of low-flow events in a large lowland Italian river possibly associated to climate change and the effects of these events, intensified by water withdrawals, on benthic macroinvertebrates. A 77-year dataset on daily discharge was thus analyzed through Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s method to investigate modifications of the main hydrological parameters. Moreover, macroinvertebrates were collected during the low-flow periods that occurred from 2010 to 2015 at three sites downstream of water withdrawals, representing three different conditions of hydrological impairment. After assessing possible differences in taxonomical and functional composition between sites and impairment conditions, redundancy analysis and ordinary least squares regression were performed to link benthos metrics to environmental (hydrological and physico-chemical) characteristics. An increase in the duration of the low-flow periods and reduced summer flows were detected on the long term, and the magnitude of low flows was significantly altered by water withdrawals. These hydrological features shaped both structural and functional characteristics of benthic assemblages, highlighting the need for a more environmentally-sustainable water resource management in the current context of climate change.

Machine Learning Reveals a Significant Shift in Water Regime Types Due to Projected Climate Change

A water regime type is a cumulative representation of seasonal runoff variability in a textual, qualitative, or quantitative form developed for a particular period. The assessment of the respective water regime type changes is of high importance for local communities and water management authorities, increasing their awareness and opening strategies for adaptation. In the presented study, we trained a machine learning model—the Random Forest classifier—to predict water regime types in northwest Russia based on monthly climatological hydrographs derived for a historical period (1979–1991). Evaluation results show the high efficiency of the trained model with an accuracy of 91.6%. Then, the Random Forest model was used to predict water regime types based on runoff projections for the end of the 21st century (2087–2099) forced by four different General Circulation Models (GCM) and three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). Results indicate that climate is expected to modify water regime types remarkably. There are two primary directions of projected changes. First, we detect the tendency towards less stable summer and winter flows. The second direction is towards a shift in spring flood characteristics. While spring flooding is expected to remain the dominant phase of the water regime, the flood peak is expected to shift towards earlier occurrence and lower magnitude. We identified that the projected changes in water regime types are more pronounced in more aggressive RCP scenarios.

Incorporating rain-on-snow into the SWAT model results in more accurate simulations of hydrologic extremes

In many cold climates, rain-on-snow (ROS) events are associated with severe snowmelt and flooding. ROS events also rapidly deplete snowpacks, reducing the potential for subsurface water storage later in the year. We incorporated a simple, easily transferable energy-balance ROS model into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess how ROS melt affects winter floods and summer hydrological drought over a large area such as the North American Great Lakes Basin, where ROS is associated with severe snowmelt events. Using 504 random parameter sets, the modification consistently improved simulations and led to higher winter flows and lower summer flows compared with the unmodified SWAT. The SWAT ROS model also had improved performance for simulating daily streamflow in 501 (99.4%) of the 504 random parameter sets and improved performance for simulating daily snowpack in 504 (100%) of the sets, compared to the unmodified SWAT. We then used streamflow and snow water equivalent as the objectives in a multivariable, multi-site calibration to compare SWAT ROS with the unmodified SWAT. The SWAT ROS model simulated 51% larger peak (0.95 quantile) daily flows during winter and spring and 58% lower daily summer low (0.05 quantile) flows across the Great Lakes Basin, compared to the unmodified SWAT. We also used observed snowpack data to demonstrate how the unmodified SWAT can miss daily ROS melt events, delaying snowmelt to later in the season. Thus, the unmodified SWAT model appears to be misrepresenting the streamflow distribution in areas where ROS events occur, which is particularly important for modeling extreme events. When simulating conditions in cold climates at diverse scales up to large basins or continents, hydrological models such as SWAT must incorporate ROS, as many other models already do. This has implications for water resources management confronted with hydrological extremes in ROS-prone areas around the world, especially where climate change is altering ROS melt events.

Integrating regional and local monitoring data and assessment tools to evaluate habitat conditions and inform river restoration

Restoring degraded rivers requires initial assessment of the fluvial landscape to identify stressors and riverine features that can be enhanced. We associated local-scale river habitat data collected using standardized national monitoring tools with modeled regional water temperature and flow data on mid-sized northwest U.S. rivers (30–60 m wide). We grouped these rivers according to quartiles of their modeled mean August water temperature and examined their physical habitat structure and flow. We then used principal components analysis to summarize the variation in several dimensions of physical habitat. We also compared local conditions in the Priest River, a river targeted for restoration of native salmonid habitat in northern Idaho, with those in other rivers of the region to infer potential drivers controlling water temperature. The warmest rivers had physical structure and fluvial characteristics typical of thermally degraded rivers, whereas the coldest rivers had higher mean summer flows and greater channel planform complexity. The Priest River sites had approximately twice as many deep residual pools (>50, >75, and >100 cm) and incision that averaged approximately twice that in the coldest rivers. Percentage fines and natural cover in the Priest were also more typical of the higher-temperature river groups. We found generally low instream cover and low levels of large wood both across the region and within the Priest River. Our approach enabled us to consider the local habitat conditions of a river in the context of other similarly sized rivers in the surrounding region. Understanding this context is important for identifying potential influences on river water temperature within the focal basin and for defining attainable goals for management and restoration of thermal and habitat conditions.

Modeling hydrologic responses using multi-site and single-site rainfall generators in a semi-arid watershed

Hydrologic response in a watershed is driven by precipitation. Multi-site rainfall generators can be used to model watersheds using spatially varied rainfall inputs to better analyze how the rainfall variability affects runoff generation. This study adopted both a single-site rainfall generator (CLIGEN) and a multi-site rainfall generator to generate two rainfall data sequences, which were then used to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for runoff simulation. The 148-km2 Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed and its two sub-watersheds were selected to evaluate the hydrologic response. Runoff calibration was done against measured runoff in the watershed. Statistics showed that the single-site and multi-site rainfall generators gave similar results regarding annual precipitation. However, the multi-site generator performed much better than the single-site generator in both mean summer flow and for the different return period flows. The runoff derived from the single-site generator was significantly over-estimated in all three watersheds. As for the multi-site generator, the derived runoff was satisfactorily predicted in the smaller watersheds but only overestimated in the largest watershed. This indicated that in small to medium sized watersheds, the spatial variability of rainfall could play an important role for hydrologic response because of the heterogeneity of convective rainfall in this semi-arid region, which makes the application of multi-site rainfall generator a better option than the single-site generator.

Valuing Enhanced Hydrologic Data and Forecasting for Informing Hydropower Operations

Climate change is rapidly modifying historic river flows and snowpack conditions in the Sierra Nevada in California and other seasonally snow-covered mountains. Statistical forecasting methods based on regressing summer flow against spring snow water equivalent, precipitation, and antecedent runoff are thus becoming increasingly inadequate for water-resources decision making, which can lead to missed opportunities in maximizing beneficial uses, including the value of hydropower resources. An enhanced forecasting method using a process-based model and spatially distributed wireless sensor data offers more accurate runoff forecasts. In this paper, we assessed the forecasting accuracy of these two forecasting methods by applying them to two tributaries within the North Fork Feather River basin in California. The result shows the enhanced forecasting method having better accuracy than the statistical model. In addition, a hydropower simulation showed a considerable increase in energy value with the enhanced forecasting informing reservoir operations. The investment analysis on applying this method shows an average internal rate of return of 31% across all scenarios, making this forecasting method an attractive way to better inform water-related decisions for hydropower generation in the context of climate change.

Deformation motion tracks sliding changes through summer, western Greenland

AbstractSurface speeds in Greenland's ablation zone undergo substantial variability on an annual basis which are presumed to mainly be driven by changes in sliding. Yet, meltwater-forced changes in ice–bed coupling can also produce variable deformation motion, which impacts the magnitude of sliding changes inferred from surface measurements and provides important context to flow dynamics. We examine spatiotemporal changes in deformation, sliding and surface velocities over a 2-year period using GPS and a dense network of inclinometers installed in borehole grid drilled in western Greenland's ablation zone. We find time variations in deformation motion track sliding changes through the summer and entire measurement period. A distinct spatial deformation and sliding pattern is also observed within the borehole grid which remains similar during winter and summer flow. We suggest that positively covarying sliding and deformation across seasonal timescales is characteristic of passive areas that are coupled to regions undergoing transient forcing, and the spatial patterns are consistent with variations in the local bed topography. The covarying deformation and sliding result in a 1.5–17% overestimate of sliding changes during summer compared to that inferred from surface velocity changes alone. This suggests that summer sliding increases are likely overestimated in many locations across Greenland.

Integrating Discharge‐Concentration Dynamics Across Carbon Forms in a Boreal Landscape

AbstractThe flux of terrestrial carbon across land‐water boundaries influences the overall carbon balance of landscapes and the ecology and biogeochemistry of aquatic ecosystems. The local consequences and broader fate of carbon delivered to streams is determined by the overall composition of carbon inputs, including the balance of organic and inorganic forms. Yet, our understanding of how hydrologic fluxes across different land‐water interfaces regulate carbon supply remains poor. We used 7 years of data from three boreal catchments to test how different land‐water interfaces (i.e., forest, wetland, and lake) modulate concentration‐discharge (C‐Q) relationships for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane, as well as the balance among forms (e.g., DOC:CO2). Seasonal patterns in concentrations and C‐Q relationships for individual carbon forms differed across catchments. DOC varied between chemostasis and transport limitation in the forest catchment, between supply limitation and chemostasis in the wetland catchment, and was persistently chemostatic in the lake outlet stream. Carbon gases were supply limited overall, but exhibited chemostasis or transport limitation in the forest and wetland catchments linked to elevated flow in summer and autumn. Unique C‐Q relationships for individual forms reflected the properties of different interfaces and underpinned changes in the composition of lateral carbon supply. Accordingly, DOC dominated the carbon flux during snowmelt, whereas gas evasion increased in relative importance during other times of the year. Integrating the C‐Q dynamics of individual carbon forms provides insight into the shifting composition of lateral export, and thus helps to predict how hydrologic changes may alter the fate of carbon supplied to streams.

Water Temperature and Hydrological Modelling in the Context of Environmental Flows and Future Climate Change: Case Study of the Wilmot River (Canada)

Simulation of surface water flow and temperature under a non-stationary, anthropogenically impacted climate is critical for water resource decision makers, especially in the context of environmental flow determination. Two climate change scenarios were employed to predict streamflow and temperature: RCP 8.5, the most pessimistic with regards to climate change, and RCP 4.5, a more optimistic scenario where greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2040. Two periods, 2018–2050 and 2051–2100, were also evaluated. In Canada, a number of modelling studies have shown that many regions will likely be faced with higher winter flow and lower summer flows. The CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model was calibrated and validated for the Wilmot River, Canada, using historic data for flow and temperature. Total annual precipitation in the region was found to remain stable under RCP 4.5 and increase over time under RCP 8.5. Median stream flow was expected to increase over present levels in the low flow months of August and September. However, increased climate variability led to higher numbers of periodic extreme low flow events and little change to the frequency of extreme high flow events. The effective increase in water temperature was four-fold greater in winter with an approximate mean difference of 4 °C, while the change was only 1 °C in summer. Overall implications for native coldwater fishes and water abstraction are not severe, except for the potential for more variability, and hence periodic extreme low flow/high temperature events.

Homeowners’ Willingness to Adopt Environmentally Beneficial Landscape Practices in an Urbanizing Watershed

Streams in urbanizing watersheds often experience low flows in summer due to increased water use for residential landscaping and decreased base flow as impervious land cover limits aquifer recharge. Environmentally beneficial landscape practices that save water and infiltrate runoff have the potential to provide multiple ecological benefits including reducing stress on urban streams, but can face opposition by local homeowners. Thus, this study explored attitudes toward landscape water conservation including the barriers and motivations that exist to adoption of water conserving landscape practices by residents in the Ipswich River watershed north of Boston, Massachusetts (USA) that experiences seasonal water shortages. The study used a mail-out and on-line survey with images of different water conserving landscape practices (including rain gardens and native plantings) and questions about homeowners’ watering practices, likelihood of adopting these landscape practices, and attitudes towards environmental issues in the region, including existing water policies to restrict use. The results showed that residents (n=265) were aware of existing water shortages and supportive of water conservation policies. Their willingness to adopt water conserving landscape practices was influenced by aesthetic preference with more support for practices that appeared neat rather than those that appeared unkempt. Barriers to residential adoption of these landscape practices included concern about disease-carrying pests and the perceived cost of landscape change. Knowledge about the environment, as operationalized by membership in a local watershed association, as well as educational attainment and income were statistically significant variables in predicting aesthetic preferences and willingness to adopt landscape practices. Promoting widespread adoption of water conserving landscape practices could benefit from local community support and educational initiatives about the multiple-benefits of these practices, including potential long-term cost savings for homeowners. Residential landscape design and management, however, are only part of overarching policy changes that could address water conservation in urbanizing watersheds.

Medium‐term environmental changes influence age‐specific survival estimates in a salmonid population

Abstract Human‐induced environmental change is a major stressor on freshwater habitats that has resulted in the population declines of many freshwater species. Ontogenetic shifts in habitat use and associated (st)age‐specific requirements mean that impacts of environmental stressors can influence (st)ages in a population differently, and yet relatively few studies of freshwater fish populations account for their detail. We aimed to identify environmental and biotic factors affecting survival estimated for six age‐classes of a European grayling population in the River Wylye, UK over a 17‐year period. We used a Bayesian age‐structured state space model to estimate survival of grayling cohorts between subsequent life stages (eggs to age 5 adults) for 16 annual transitions (2003–2004 to 2018–2019), whilst accounting for imperfect sampling of the population. We quantified the effects of seasonal water flow and temperature, in‐stream habitat and prey resource, and potential competitors and predators on survival between subsequent life stages. We used Bayesian variable selection to gauge their relative importance on survival. Grayling abundances declined during the study period (>75% in all age‐classes), predominately driven by a loss of mature adults. Changes to seasonal flows negatively influenced their survival: increased days of summer low flow related to decreased survival of subadults and mature adults, and lower winter flows related to reduced recruitment of juveniles from eggs. Higher summer macrophyte cover negatively influenced juvenile and subadult survival and increasing days of high temperature in summer appeared detrimental to juvenile survival. Abundance of brown trout (a potential competitor and predator) did not negatively influence grayling survival. Our results reveal the implications of environmental change on a salmonid population, where recent low summer flows and high temperatures, and below average winter flows, have negatively influenced grayling survival. These conditions appear to be becoming more frequent and persistent in our study river, which is towards the species’ southern range limit, which could render the population vulnerable to climate change. Our study demonstrates how careful analysis of long‐term population monitoring and environmental datasets can identify factors affecting (st)age‐specific fish population dynamics, and when combined with local expertise, results in realistic mitigation proposals to promote wildlife population persistence.

Variability in fluvial suspended and streambed sediment phosphorus fractions among small agricultural streams.

Agriculture is a major source of sediment and particulate phosphorus (P) inputs to freshwaters. Distinguishing between P fractions in sediment can aid in understanding its eutrophication risk. Although streams and rivers are important parts of the P cycle in agricultural catchments, streambed sediment and especially fluvial suspended sediment (FSS) and its P fractions are less studied. To address this knowledge gap, seasonal variations in FSS P fractions and their relation to water quality and streambed sediment were examined in three Swedish agricultural headwater catchments over 2 yr. Sequential fractionation was used to characterize P fractions in both streambed sediment and FSS. All catchments had similar annual P losses (0.4-0.8kg ha-1 ), suspended solids (124-183mg L-1 ), and FSS total P concentrations (1.15-1.19mg g-1 ). However, distribution of P fractions and the dominant P fractions in FSS differed among catchments (p<.05), which was most likely dependent on differences in catchment geology, clay content, external P sources, and flow conditions. The most prominent seasonal pattern in all catchments was found for iron-bound P, with high concentrations during low summer flows and low concentrations during winter high flows. Streambed sediment P fractions were in the same concentration ranges as in FSS, and the distribution of the fractions differed between catchments. This study highlights the need to quantify P fractions, not just total P in FSS, to obtain a more complete understanding of the eutrophication risk posed by agricultural sediment losses.

Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes

AbstractClimate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide‐ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national‐scale grid‐based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation‐based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias‐correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time‐slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward.

Uncertainty Analysis and Identification of Key Parameters Controlling Bacteria Transport Within a Riverbank Filtration Scenario

AbstractManaged aquifer recharge through bank filtration is an important method to produce sustainable drinking water. Yet, water quality related to transport of pathogens (bacteria and viruses) into groundwater systems from surface waters can be a matter of concern, especially in urbanized regions. Based on a 1‐year monitoring campaign, a reactive transport model was developed for bacteria transport at a riverbank filtration site located in Germany. The model allows simulating advective‐dispersive transport and relies on the colloid filtration theory to mimic attachment and detachment of bacteria to and from the sediment in addition to inactivation, straining and blocking of bacteria. Due to the complexity of the investigated processes, the reactive transport model is characterized by a high level of parametrization, encompassing parameters driving flow as well as solute and colloid transport. A global sensitivity analysis has been applied to identify the most relevant model parameters with respect to piezometric pressure heads, groundwater temperature, and concentrations of chloride, oxygen, coliforms, and Escherichia coli. The model has been calibrated within a stochastic framework, to provide model parameter estimates and to quantify their uncertainty. Our results suggest that bacteria transport models are highly sensitive to inactivation coefficients, straining coefficients, and bacteria size. Permeability of the colmation layer at the riverbank is a key factor for bacteria transport through its influence on residence times. Seasonal variability of boundary conditions, especially anoxic aquifer conditions in the summer and high groundwater flow velocities during flooding periods, resulted in a reduction of inactivation and increased bacteria concentrations at observation wells.