Summer Flows Research Articles

Pollarding May Relieve Drought Stress in Black Poplars

Pollarding has historically been used in broadleaf tree species across European woodlands. However, despite pollarding enhances vigor growth in the short term, it is still unclear how long this effect lasts and whether it can alleviate drought stress in seasonally dry regions. We compared the radial growth and wood δ13C (13C/12C), a proxy of intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), of trees pollarded 10 and 20 years ago in two black poplar (Populus nigra L.) riparian stands located in North Eastern Spain and subjected to different ecohydrological conditions. We also assessed if pollarded trees showed different leaf phenology as compared with uncut trees of coexisting white poplar (Populus alba L.) trees. The relationships between growth, climate variables, drought severity and river flow were quantified. Pollarded and uncut trees showed a similar leaf phenology with a trend towards earlier leaf unfolding as springs become warmer. Pollarding increased growth rates by 54% (ratio between trees pollarded 10 and 20 years ago, respectively), but this enhancement was transitory and lasted ca. 10 years, whereas wood δ13C decreased −5%. The growth of black poplar increased in response to high precipitation in the previous winter, cool wet conditions, and a higher river flow in summer. Pollarding improves growth and relieves drought stress.

Has river regulation damaged the Peace-Athabasca Delta?

ABSTRACT The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) is a complex, dynamic, and misunderstood ecosystem. This study uses landscape, ecological, climatic, hydrologic, historical, stratigraphic, and wildlife data that document how and why the PAD has changed and varied from ~1900 to 2023. The ecological, climatic, and hydrologic components of the ecosystem vary in concert. Flood-drawdown cycles influenced by physical and biological factors have driven a host of landscape changes over the past 120 years. Prior to regulation, net drying of the PAD took place over the period ~1900 to the mid-1940s. Since mid-20th century, there has been no multidecadal drying trend but rather decadal-scale wet and dry episodes. Levels of the confluent Lakes Athabasca, Claire, and Mamawi, and their adjacent restricted basins, are strongly correlated with the combined flows of the Peace, Athabasca, Fond du Lac, and Birch Rivers. River regulation has changed the seasonal distribution of flows and suppressed summer flows. There is, however, no evidence that ‘dramatic landscape change is underway, devastating local fauna’ or that river regulation has caused delta desiccation, declines in spring flooding, declines in lake levels, or declines in wildlife, waterfowl, or their habitat. The great areal extent of the PAD watershed imparts hydrologic and ecological resilience.

Real-time integrated water availability – Salt intrusion modelling and management during droughts

Climate change and population increase are major challenges when guaranteeing a sustainable water supply in densely populated river basins worldwide, where different water users such as industry, drinking water production and agriculture typically come into conflict. During dry periods, real time monitoring and short term forecasting of the water availability are crucial to prepare and take appropriate action. Integrated water quantity and water quality models of complex surface water systems are indispensable to achieve this. However, existing model techniques often focus on a single aspect of the water system, are computationally too demanding and are hard to integrate with other sub models. This paper proposes a framework for developing efficient, integrated water quantity/quality models in support of real-time management and forecasting of complex surface water systems. Its three main components are: a low-flow prediction for the supplying river(s) during dry periods, a conceptual water quantity-quality model with semi-automated retrieval of necessary boundary conditions and input data, and classification models to predict the water quality state of the considered system during forecasts or scenario analyses. The novelty of the methodology lies in the use of parsimonious, computationally efficient sub-models that still allow to consider numerous operational rules, competing water users and water supply and quality constraints. The framework was tested in the context of water availability and salt intrusion management during droughts in the Campine Canals in the Scheldt-Meuse-Rhine delta, considering boundary conditions of shipping traffic, pumping at locks, hydropower stations, level regulation, and water abstractions for drinking water supply, industry, agriculture and nature reserves. Despite the complexity of the considered system, the model is able to describe the state of the water system in terms of water levels, discharges and salt intrusion impacts on water production with an acceptable accuracy. The research shows that the Campine Canal network is susceptible to water scarcity due to the increased risk of low flows in summer as a consequence of climate change. Local decision makers should adopt both effective adaptation strategies as well as real-time forecasts in acute drought situations to increase the region’s defence and resiliency against water shortages.

Factors influencing seasonal chemistry patterns in Virginia mountain streams

The relative influence of seasonal patterns in hydrological flow and seasonal differences in biological and geochemical activity on stream chemistry patterns is difficult to discern because they covary; temperate systems are characterized by lower mean flow in the summer (i.e. corresponding to deeper flow paths, elevated temperature, and biological activity), and higher mean flow in the winter (i.e. corresponding to shallower flow paths, depressed temperature, and biological dormancy). Using 2018 data, when seasonal stream flow conditions reversed, and two prior conventional water years, the relationship between monthly acid-relevant analyte concentrations and streamflow were compared within and between winter and summer to provide insight into controls on characteristic seasonal chemistry patterns at two mid-Appalachian sites with distinct geology (weatherable mafic and weather resistant siliciclastic). Acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased (1) with lower flow, in both seasons and (2) in summer, for all flow conditions. The compounding impacts resulted in a doubling of concentration from typical winter with high flow to summer with low flow at both sites. Base cation patterns tracked ANC at the mafic site, resulting in an ~ 60% increase of from winter with high flow to summer with low flow; distinctions between summer and winter contributed more to the seasonal pattern (72%) than changes in flow. Sulfate increased at the mafic site (1) with higher flow, in both seasons and (2) in winter, for all flow conditions, resulting in an ~ 50% increase from summer with low flow to winter with high flow; distinctions between winter and summer conditions and flow contributed similarly (40–60%) to the typical seasonal chemical pattern. The biogeochemical mechanism driving differences in stream chemistry between summer and winter for the same flow conditions is likely increased rates of natural acidification from elevated soil respiration in summer, resulting in greater bedrock weathering and sulfate adsorption. Findings highlight the significance and consistency of growing vs dormant season variations in temperature and biological activity in driving intra-annual patterns of stream solutes. This data set informs parameterization of hydro-biogeochemical models of stream chemistry in a changing climate at a biologically relevant, seasonal, timescale.

Features of underground flow formation to the Golovesnya river (Desna basin) during the dry period 2007-2021

Purpose. To analyze the peculiarities of the dynamics of underground flow on the catchment of the Golovesnya River, a right-bank tributary of the Desna River, during the dry period of 2007-2021 in comparison with the period of 1960-1985 - before the beginning of noticeable climatic changes. Methods. The hydrodynamic finite-difference method of calculating the specific consumption of groundwater based on the data of routine observations of the levels of groundwater and surface water, the hydrodynamic method of calculating the components of the groundwater balance. Results. The specific flow of groundwater to the Golovesnya River was calculated based on the data of observations for 2007-2021; the share of groundwater flow in the total flow of the river was determined, changes in the dynamics of infiltration nutrition and the inflow of groundwater to the river were revealed, which can be associated with the sign of the charge of the static electric field of the surface layer of the atmosphere, an increase in air temperature, and an increase in the volume of moisture retention in the aeration zone after reducing GWT. Underground flow to the river largely compensates for the losses and stabilizes the river flow in low-water years and during prolonged hydrological drought. Important factors in the regulation of the groundwater regime in low-water periods (in addition to precipitation) are the level and flow of water in the river, as well as the loss of moisture due to the saturation of the aeration zone, and therefore, the lithological and granulometric composition of this zone. Losses in the aeration zone are also an important regulatory factor of balance and river flow in the scale of the Desna River catchment. The largest volumes of underground runoff to the Golovesnya River for 2007-2021 were set for the multi-water year 2016, the smallest - for 2021. By 2016, the chronological graphs show clearer seasonal patterns: repeatability of underground flow fluctuations in the spring and autumn seasons; opposite flow fluctuations in winter and spring and a relatively stable summer flow; typical for autumn are maximum, and for summer always minimum values ​​of reserves and infiltration recharge of groundwater. In the abundant water year of 2016, infiltration recharge and groundwater reserves during autumn and winter sharply decrease and acquire negative values ​​due to a significant decrease in GWT in the previous period, an unfavorable course of temperature and precipitation distribution, and increased outflow to the river. In 2017-2021, the seasonal differences in the recharge of the river with groundwater are almost equalized: the role of recharge increases during the summer period, and decreases during the spring and autumn seasons. The role of the condensation mechanism of moisture transfer in the aeration zone is increasing. During the summer, the lateral inflow of groundwater to the river was the highest in 2016-2018. Conclusions. Calculations and analysis of the dynamics of infiltration feeding and groundwater flow to the Golovesnya River have been performed. Changes in groundwater supply and discharge, especially in the period after 2015, have been identified, which can be interpreted as the consequences of adverse weather and climate conditions in 2014-2015. In 2018-2021, there was a decrease in groundwater and surface water resources, which corresponds to signs of hydrological drought.

Assessment of hydrological baseline condition and its alteration in Athabasca River Basin, Canada

Study regionAthabasca River Basin (ARB), Canada. Study focusThis study aimed to characterize the flow regime of the ARB, a basin with diverse hydroclimatic and geological characteristics. Forty-two different flow indicators from the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) and Cold regions Hydrological Indicators of Change (CHIC) were employed. The natural range of these indicators was established for the baseline period (1961–1990), and subsequent alterations during the recent period (1991–2020) were systematically examined. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to identify pivotal indicators shaping the basin's flow regime. In addition, trends of key indicators were examined at eight distinct locations within the basin. New hydrological insights for the study regionThe findings indicate spatiotemporal variation between the basin's upper and lower parts. The upstream region exhibited an earlier peak flow (9 days), an earlier ice break-up (17 days), and a shorter ice cover duration (22 days) compared to the downstream region. Increased winter and spring flow have led to an augmentation of annual flow by 3.8 % in the upper region. In contrast, downstream flow experienced a decline throughout the year (11.38 %), which was found to be statistically significant at a rate of 3.24 m3/s/year. Alteration analysis revealed a shift toward the 'low category' (below their defined baseline range) for most indicators in the recent period, underscoring a transition towards a diminishing flow regime, with an overall alteration ranging at low to moderate levels (19–38 %). Late summer flow reduction (8–25 %) can have critical implications, given the rising water demand in the basin. The study identified eleven key indicators encapsulating the basin's flow regime variability range. It was found that ice cover, its break-up, and spring freshet significantly influence the flow regime of the basin. The findings from this study will assist decision-makers in making more informed decisions for the holistic management of water resources in the basin.

Glacier Meltwater Impacts to Late Summer Flow and Geochemistry of Tributaries in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, USA

Reductions in winter snowpack over the last few decades have affected water resource availability in the western United States. In regions where glaciers exist, local communities have an advantage over nonglaciated regions as water continues to flow once the snowpack has melted. Despite this advantage, relatively little is understood about the contributions of glacial meltwater quantity and quality to streamflow. Torrey Creek watershed in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, contains several glaciers that provide meltwater to supplement late summer streamflow to the Wind River. Despite its importance as a contributor to water resources in the region, Torrey Creek discharge is not regularly monitored. Field research conducted in August 2019 for this study, along with previous field work completed in August 2012 and 2014, provides some understanding of late summer meltwater quantity and quality within the Torrey Creek watershed. Measured Torrey Creek discharge during mid-August 2019 averaged 3.80 m³ s−1 with 37 percent of the discharge attributed to glacial ice melt from stable isotope analysis. Nutrient loading to Torrey Creek from glacial meltwater was dominated by NO2–NO3 at 179.99 kg per month followed by 21.86 kg of total P for August 2019.

Shifting groundwater fluxes in bedrock fractures: Evidence from stream water radon and water isotopes

Geologic features (e.g., fractures and alluvial fans) can play an important role in the locations and volumes of groundwater discharge and degree of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions. However, the role of these features in controlling GW-SW dynamics and streamflow generation processes are not well constrained. GW-SW interactions and streamflow generation processes are further complicated by variability in precipitation inputs from summer and fall monsoon rains, as well as declines in snowpack and changing melt dynamics driven by warming temperatures. Using high spatial and temporal resolution radon and water stable isotope sampling and a 1D groundwater flux model, we evaluated how groundwater contributions and GW-SW interactions varied along a stream reach impacted by fractures (fractured-zone) and downstream of the fractured hillslope (non-fractured zone) in Coal Creek, a Colorado River headwater stream affected by summer monsoons. During early summer, groundwater contributions from the fractured zone were high, but declined throughout the summer. Groundwater contributions from the non-fractured zone were constant throughout the summer and became proportionally more important later in the summer. We hypothesize that groundwater in the non-fractured zone is dominantly sourced from a high-storage alluvial fan at the base of a tributary that is connected to Coal Creek throughout the summer and provides consistent groundwater influx. Water isotope data revealed that Coal Creek responds quickly to incoming precipitation early in the summer, and summer precipitation becomes more important for streamflow generation later in the summer. We quantified the change in catchment dynamic storage and found it negatively related to stream water isotope values, and positively related to modeled groundwater discharge and the ratio of fractured zone to non-fractured zone groundwater. We interpret these relationships as declining hydrologic connectivity throughout the summer leading to late summer streamflow supported predominantly by shallow flow paths, with variable response to drying from geologic features based on their storage. As groundwater becomes more important for sustaining summer flows, quantifying local geologic controls on groundwater inputs and their response to variable moisture conditions may become critical for accurate predictions of streamflow.

Modelling flow regulation effects on vegetation recruitment and survival on alternate bars in channelized rivers

AbstractMany river reaches have transitioned to heavily vegetated systems following the regulation of their flow regime. Vegetation recruitment and survival are key to these transformations. We propose a novel predictive approach to detect how changes in the flow regime may affect conditions for successful vegetation recruitment and survival in channelized rivers with alternate bars. Our approach combines elements of existing vegetation recruitment models (Recruitment Box and Window of Opportunity) with simplified morphodynamic predictions of alternate bar migration. The approach is illustrated by applying it to a reach of the regulated Isère river, SE France, which has transitioned from migrating, unvegetated to steady, vegetated alternate bars over two decades following flow regulation associated with hydropower development. Our modelling approach identifies a strong impact of modified summer flows on vegetation recruitment since 1950 when major flow regulation began. An increase of up to 1 cm year−1 (after 1990) has occurred in the vertical extent of vegetation recruitment bands on the bars. This has been accompanied by an almost 20 m total increase (since 1950) in the horizontal extent of the recruitment bands, and a 1.5 times reduction in the frequency of high flows capable of promoting bar migration. Our modelling also suggests viable flow restoration options to limit widespread vegetation colonisation. Comparing outcomes from our modelling approach with those from the Bertagni et al. (2018) model suggests that the Isère may have been highly prone to vegetation colonisation even before flow regulation and close to some threshold for a shift from an unvegetated to a vegetated state.

Long‐Term Variability and Tendencies in Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Winds From Meteor Radar Observations Over Esrange (67.9°N, 21.1°E)

AbstractLong‐term variabilities of monthly zonal (U) and meridional winds (V) in northern polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT, ∼80–100 km) are investigated using meteor radar observations during 1999–2022 over Esrange (67.9°N, 21.1°E). The summer (June‐August) mean zonal winds are characterized by westward flow up to ∼88–90 km and eastward flow above this height. The summer mean meridional winds are equatorward with strong jet at ∼85–90 km and it weakens above this height. The U and V exhibit strong interannual variability that varies with altitude and month or season. The responses of U and V anomalies (from 1999 to 2003) to solar cycle (SC), Quasi Biennial Oscillation at 10 and 30 hPa, El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are analyzed using multiple linear regression. From analysis, significant regions of correlations between MLT winds and above potential drivers vary with altitude and month. The positive responses of U and V to SC (up to 15 m/s/100 sfu) indicates the strengthening of eastward winds in mid‐late winter, and poleward winds in late autumn and early winter. The O3 likely intensifies the eastward and poleward winds (∼100 m/s/ppmv) in winter and early spring. The CO2 significantly influence the eastward flow in late winter and summer (above ∼90–95 km) and strengthen the meridional circulation. The significant positive trend in U peaks in summer, late autumn and early winter (∼0.6 m/s/year), the negative trend in V is more prominent in summer above ∼90–95 km.

Effects of irrigation dams on riverine biota in mountain streams

Mountain streams harbor unique biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services to human societies. Yet, these ecosystems face numerous threats, such as the construction of dams and land use changes, leading to rapid habitat degradation, water pollution, and biodiversity loss. In this study, we assess the effect of irrigation dams on mountain riverine biota using traditional biotic indices and trait-based approaches. We selected diatom and macroinvertebrate communities surveyed between 2015 and 2017 in mountain streams located in different regions in northern Spain (Cantabrian Cordillera, Iberian System, and Pyrenees) under natural and altered flow conditions (i.e., downstream of irrigation dams). Hydrological and biological changes related to the presence of dams, the mountain range, and the interaction between these two factors were identified. Summer flows, frequency of high flow events, and minimum annual flows timing were significantly affected by irrigation dams, independently of the region. Winter flows, the magnitude of high flow extremes, and the number of flow rises and falls varied significantly with the dam-mountain range interaction. The frequency and duration of flow pulses depended on the mountain range only. In the Cantabrian Cordillera, a region with larger reservoirs (>150 hm3), impacted sites showed a marked inversion of the seasonal flow patterns (i.e., increased summer flows but reduced winter flows). In the other mountain ranges, reservoirs had smaller storage volumes and multiple purposes, causing significant flow change frequency variations. Diatom traits, taxonomic richness, diversity, and IPS score varied with dam presence and mountain ranges, while macroinvertebrate traits and biotic indices responded weakly. These findings suggest that diatom communities might be more sensitive to hydrological alteration, while macroinvertebrates might be more influenced by space-related factors, such as biogeography and dispersal, overriding dam-related impacts. Furthermore, dam-related changes in ecosystems may depend not only on the presence of dams and their characteristics (e.g., reservoir size and operation), but also on local conditions and biogeography. Our findings emphasize that, when using pre-existing biomonitoring datasets, although some dam-related patterns emerge (e.g., with diatoms), other patterns may be constrained by the datasets’ low spatio-temporal coverage and taxonomic resolution, highlighting the need of well-structured study designs.

Citizen science shows that small agricultural streams in Germany are in a poor ecological status

Agricultural pesticides, nutrients, and habitat degradation are major causes of insect declines in lowland streams. To effectively conserve and restore stream habitats, standardized stream monitoring data and societal support for freshwater protection are needed. Here, we sampled 137 small stream monitoring sites across Germany, 83 % of which were located in agricultural catchments, with >900 citizen scientists in 96 monitoring groups. Sampling was carried out according to Water Framework Directive standards as part of the citizen science freshwater monitoring program FLOW in spring and summer 2021, 2022 and 2023. The biological indicator SPEARpesticides was used to assess pesticide exposure and effects based on macroinvertebrate community composition. Overall, 58 % of the agricultural monitoring sites failed to achieve a good ecological status in terms of macroinvertebrate community composition and indicated high pesticide exposure (SPEARpesticides status class: 29 % “moderate”, 19 % “poor”, 11 % “bad”). The indicated pesticide pressure in streams was related to the proportion of arable land in the catchment areas (R2 = 0.23, p < 0.001). Also with regards to hydromorphology, monitoring results revealed that 65 % of the agricultural monitoring sites failed to reach a good status. The database produced by citizen science groups was characterized by a high degree of accuracy, as results obtained by citizen scientists and professionals were highly correlated for SPEARpesticides index (R2 = 0.79, p < 0.001) and hydromorphology index values (R2 = 0.72, p < 0.001). Such citizen-driven monitoring of the status of watercourses could play a crucial role in monitoring and implementing the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive, thus contributing to restoring and protecting freshwater ecosystems.

Vertical structure of low-level cross-equatorial flows in boreal summer

Vertical structure of low-level cross-equatorial flows in boreal summer

Future flow and water temperature scenarios in an impounded drainage basin: implications for summer flow and temperature management downstream of the dam

Future flow and water temperature scenarios in an impounded drainage basin: implications for summer flow and temperature management downstream of the dam

Effects of stratification and mixing on spatiotemporal dynamics and functional potential of microbial community in a subtropical large-deep reservoir driven by nutrients and ecological niche

Seasonal thermal stratification is a common environmental phenomenon in reservoir water bodies and an important research topic for deep water reservoirs. A thermally stratified reservoir is an ideal system for investigating the interaction between factors affecting the environment and microorganism communities under spatial–temporal variation. However, few studies have focused on the effects of water stratification and mixing periods in microbial communities and nitrogen conversion. Therefore, using metagenomic sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction, we investigated the microbial diversity and function in the Xin'anjiang Reservoir during water stratification and mixing period. Principal component analysis indicated that the bacterial communities were mostly affected by water stratification, mainly at 10-m depths, whereas the archaea community was influenced by the entire water profile. The predominant archaeal phyla changed from Candidatus_Woesearchaeota and Euryarchaeota to Thaumarchaeota with the increasing water depth during water stratification. The stratified variations of the dominant archaeal phyla strongly reflected the seasonal changes and vertical gradient in water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH. Linear regression analysis indicated that variations in microbial composition altered the overall functional attributes of the communities, especially in the archaeal community. Regarding nitrogen metabolism across the whole reservoir, the number of nitrification and denitrification genes dropped in the same direction as the river flow in spring and summer, while the opposite trend was observed in autumn and winter. The functional genes of the water profiles in the transitional and lacustrine zones varied considerably except in winter. Additionally, the copies of nitrification-related genes were more during the stratification stage than during the mixing stage, whereas copies of denitrification-related genes showed the opposite trend. Overall, this study provides unique insights regarding the effects of seasonal stratification on the distribution and function of microorganisms in large-deep reservoirs, which should be considered when establishing guidelines for reservoirs management.

Persistence of an external shock to domestic tourism demand

ABSTRACT This study investigates two aspects of how an external shock in the guise of the Covid-19 pandemic affects domestic tourism demand: (1) If the impact varies across regions and over time or (2) whether a permanent change (hysteresis) occurs anywhere. By doing so, a presumptive change in domestic tourism demand during three summers is quantified based on timely official data for all Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) and Estonia, encompassing a total of 76 NUTS3 regions. These regions are divided into five groups from large metropolitan to remote. Tourism demand is approximated by the number of domestic overnight stays in accommodation establishments in the summer months 2016–2022. Dynamic panel data estimations, including household consumption and hotel price index, reveal that all non-metropolitan regions experience a strong increase in domestic tourism flows in the first summer of the pandemic compared with the three years preceding 2020. In contrast, the largest metropolitan areas encounter a substantial decline. The surge in demand for non-metropolitan areas continues in 2021, while the large metropolitan regions return to their pre-pandemic level. After this, demand no longer deviates from its pre-2020 pattern across regions, confirming that the effects are temporary.

Meteorology of ‘ridging high’ rainfall over the KwaZulu‐Natal coastal plains

AbstractThe meteorology of ridging highs on the coast of KwaZulu‐Natal (KZN) South Africa was studied using Principal Component (pc) analysis of daily ERA5 sea level air pressure (SLP) fields 1980–2021. The second pc mode time score representing ridging highs, was associated with rain‐showers moving northeast‐ward along the KZN coast. Temporal analysis revealed an Oct‐Dec peak occurrence and 12‐day pulse intervals induced by the eastward migration of atmospheric Rossby waves in early summer. From a ranking of SLP pc2 and associated daily time series, a case study emerged: 14–18 Nov. 2009. This ridging high weather scenario had cold southerly winds subsiding over the warm Agulhas Current. Surface moisture fluxes &gt;350 W/m2 create a buoyant airmass that slows and lifts over the coastal plains, inducing shallow clouds that reduce net solar radiation and potential evaporation. Interannual variability of ridging highs was studied by filtering the daily SLP pc2 time score to retain seasonal fluctuations and correlating with regional fields of SST. This revealed warming in the SW Indian Ocean associated with positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The atmospheric circulation forms a NW trough over Madagascar which deforms eastward moving mid‐latitude anticyclones. Thus, ridging highs that bring beneficial Oct‐Dec rains to the coast of KZN depend on downstream climate coupling with the IOD. Long‐term trends from a coupled model simulation 1980–2100 suggest a poleward retreat of the anticyclonic ridge, consistent with declining Durban‐area river flow in early summer.

Multibranch Modelling of Flow and Water Quality in the Dhaka River System, Bangladesh: Impacts of Future Development Plans and Climate Change

Long-term development and pollution clean-up plans are a continuing feature of megacities such as Dhaka, Bangladesh. Bangladesh needs to deal with a legacy of past pollution and manage current pollution from a rapidly expanding economy. Surveys in the rivers around Dhaka show extremely high pollution and very low dissolved oxygen levels, with subsequent ecological impacts. Millions of people are not on public treatment of effluents and thousands of factories discharge into the rivers. The Bangladesh Government is planning to install over 12 large Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs) over the next 20 years. To assess the efficacy of these, a water quality model has been applied to the Dhaka River System. Results show that the proposed plan has beneficial effects in the short term for the most densely populated areas of Dhaka, along the Turag and Buriganga Rivers, and in the medium term in other parts of the city (Tongi Khal). However, in several reaches dissolved oxygen levels will remain low or very low due to the lack of STP capacity, remaining misconnections of untreated sewage and large effluent loads. The proposed STPs, while certainly beneficial, will need to be upgraded in the future if the predicted rates of population growth are confirmed and industrial pollution is not significantly reduced alongside. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the Dhaka River System water quality, with increased monsoon flows and lower summer flows, but these changes will not greatly affect the extremes of water quality to any great extent due to the overwhelming impact of pollutant discharges into the system.

Leveraging Groundwater Dynamics to Improve Predictions of Summer Low‐Flow Discharges

AbstractSummer streamflow predictions are critical for managing water resources; however, warming‐induced shifts from snow to rain regimes impact low‐flow predictive models. Additionally, reductions in snowpack drive earlier peak flows and lower summer flows across the western United States increasing reliance on groundwater for maintaining summer streamflow. However, it remains poorly understood how groundwater contributions vary interannually. We quantify recession limb groundwater (RLGW), defined as the proportional groundwater contribution to the stream during the period between peak stream flow and low flow, to predict summer low flows across three diverse western US watersheds. We ask (a) how do snow and rain dynamics influence interannual variations of RLGW contributions and summer low flows?; (b) which watershed attributes impact the effectiveness of RLGW as a predictor of summer low flows? Linear models reveal that RLGW is a strong predictor of low flows across all sites and drastically improves low‐flow prediction compared to snow metrics at a rain‐dominated site. Results suggest that strength of RLGW control on summer low flows may be mediated by subsurface storage. Subsurface storage can be divided into dynamic (i.e., variability saturated) and deep (i.e., permanently saturated) components, and we hypothesize that interannual variability in dynamic storage contribution to streamflow drives RLGW variability. In systems with a higher proportion of dynamic storage, RLGW is a better predictor of summer low flow because the stream is more responsive to dynamic storage contributions compared to deep‐storage‐dominated systems. Overall, including RLGW improved low‐flow prediction across diverse watersheds.

Water temperature and the growth of Ameletus inopinatus (Ephemeroptera: Ameletidae) in the Cairngorms, Scotland

Ameletus inopinatus Eaton, 1887 is the only arctic-alpine mayfly species found in the British Isles. Previous research in Europe using climate models has shown that the geographical range of this species is likely to contract as water temperatures increase. As such, A.inopinatus is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate warming. The impact of water temperature on the development of A.inopinatus larvae was investigated in the Cairngorms National Park in Scotland. We closely linked larval development to water temperature with snow cover playing an important role in ensuring emergence occurs before watercourses cease to flow in early summer. The results of this study confirm the vulnerability of A. inopinatus to rising water temperatures and provide new information to help target mitigation measures to prevent further losses of this species.