Projections of mean and extreme precipitation over China and their resolution dependence in the HighResMIP experiments

Abstract

Projected near-future changes in mean and extreme precipitation by the end of the mid-21st century over China are investigated using the latest CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations grouped by different categories of horizontal and vertical resolutions. Evaluation of the historical simulations demonstrates improvements in the realism of the simulated precipitation over the different sub-regions with increased model resolutions. More apparent improvements are displayed by models with increased vertical resolution than those with increased horizontal resolutions. The near-future scenario of SSP5–8.5 suggests general increases in mean and extreme precipitation across Northwest and East-Northeast China. Also, models with coarser horizontal resolutions project an intensified precipitation seasonality over China. Models at relatively high vertical resolutions project decreased precipitation and enhanced droughts over Southwest China, while these are less apparent in models with relatively coarse vertical resolutions. All the simulations project a northward shift of summer and winter monsoon flows in East Asia. Meanwhile, a weaker summer monsoon across the tropics with a weakening of the monsoon trough over the South China Sea are projected. This indicates a less favorable environment for precipitation across the southern sub-regions. The complicated responses of precipitation to these environmental mechanisms are partly linked to the presented resolution-dependent uncertainties. Such uncertainties should be recognized and treated with caution in understanding the near-future hydrological changes in China.