Sulphur Cap Research Articles

Open-Loop Exhaust-Gas Cleaning System: Analysis of Effects Produced on Barcelona Port Water pH

The implementation of a 0.5% mass/mass sulphur cap in fuels used by ships has become a reality. Furthermore, regulation 14 of the MARPOL Convention–Annex VI (amended) establishes that the limit on fuel used by ships operating in a Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA) cannot exceed 0.1% of mass/mass. To deal with these requirements while considering nature of the shipping business, which is the continuous carriage of cargo around the world, shipowners or shipping companies have few options for following this regulation. Apart from the use of a low-sulphur-content fuel is the use of an exhaust-gas cleaning system, also known as “scrubbers”, as an alternative. The use of these systems, specifically the open-loop system, entails the discharge to the sea of residual water used during the cleaning process of exhaust gases from ship engines. The objective of this paper is to study the effect produced by discharging this residual water on the acidity level (pH) of Barcelona port water. This objective was achieved through the periodical sampling and analysis of Barcelona port water in collaboration with the IDAEA (CSIC) laboratory. We analysed the evolution of the pH results obtained so far and obtained an initial picture of the pH Barcelona port water situation in real time regarding the effect of wash-water discharges from open-loop scrubbers. Furthermore, this paper describes the implementation of a system which is going to improve the operation of open-loop exhaust-gas cleaning systems.

A Bi-Level Programming Model for China’s Marine Domestic Emission Control Area Design

Due to the adverse impact of seaborne sulfur emissions on coastal areas, the Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China is planning to implement a 0.1% sulfur cap on bunker fuel in the domestic emission control area (DECA) on 1 January 2025. As the current DECA width is only 12 NM, ships can bypass the DECA to reduce the use of high-priced ultra-low sulfur fuel oil (ULSFO) and thus save on fuel costs. The purpose of this study is first to assess the effect of China’s 12-NM-wide DECA policy and then to assist the government in determining the optimal DECA width. We develop a bi-level programming model to capture the relationship between the government policy and ship operators’ operations. In the lower-level programming model, we capture ship operators’ decisions regarding their ships’ sailing routes and speeds while considering the time required for fuel switching, which aims to minimize the total fuel costs over a given voyage. The optimal solution to the lower-level programming model is then embedded in the upper-level programming model to determine the optimal DECA width for the government, with the aim of minimizing the impact of seaborne sulfur emissions on the coastal area environment. The final results, obtained from computational experiments, validate the idea that ships tend to bypass the 12-NM-wide DECA and reduce their sailing speeds inside the DECA to decrease their use of ULSFO. Therefore, we recommend that the government increase the current DECA width to at least 112 NM to prevent ships from bypassing it and to achieve the desired sulfur reduction target.

Assessing the impact of sulfur cap on bunkering spot selection in the ARA region

The introduction of IMO2020, the outbreak of COVID-19, and the oil price drop in 2020 had a significant impact on operators’ operating profits. Therefore, a competitive analysis of bunkering spots that suggests the optimal location for bunkering is of interest. This paper uses a combination of primary and secondary research, both from operators’ and suppliers’ side, to identify the key performance factors (KPFs) affecting the decision-making process of a bunkering port selection process. Answers were then combined by using a fuzzy TOPSIS analytical approach to quantify the competitive position of each port in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region. Results suggest that availability of low sulfur bunkers, bunker quality, bunker price, reliability, punctuality, and safety of bunkering services, as well as usage and availability of barges are the key KPFs in order of importance. Sulfur cap has not changed the competitive environment in the region as the geographic advantage of the port of Rotterdam plays a crucial role in the comparison with the other ports, in contrast to expressed concerns in the industry.

Is polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentration significantly underestimated in scrubber effluent discharge?

With the wide-scale use of exhaust gas cleaning systems (scrubbers) by ships and the associated scrubber washwater discharge, there is growing concern regarding the risk of the marine environment posed by scrubber washwater, especially for the organic contaminants “Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs)” which is a toxic washwater pollutant component. The detection of PAHs in scrubber effluent has been conducted widely by two different methods: the Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) method of labs and the fluorescent method by online PAHs sensors. Unfortunately, the current lab analysis only focuses on the EPA 16 PAHs rather than any other derivatives, resulting a knowledge gap between accurate estimating the actual concentrations of PAHs in the onboard scrubber effluents to onboard PAHs monitoring. This gap leads to controversial opinion on scrubber effluent environmental impact as well as ambiguity in “sulphur cap” regulation implements. In this study, we conducted a scrubber effluent sampling program on three ships, and the lab analysis indicated that alkylated derivatives of naphthalene, phenanthrene, and fluorene clearly dominate in all PAHs of the scrubber effluent. However, since current PAHs monitoring devices survey/approval solely report the content of the EPA 16 PAHs from lab report, the overlooked alkylated PAHs may lead to a significant underestimation (up to 30 times lower) of total PAHs concentration in scrubber effluent. Consequently, the overall marine environment risk of scrubber effluent could be substantially underestimated considering alkylated PAHs are often reported more toxic than their parent PAHs. This study may trig re-examinations of PAHs monitoring methods and lead to an understanding that the present discharge regulations require an overhaul.

Evaluation of the effect of Global Sulfur Cap 2020 on a Japanese inland sea area

The Global Sulfur Cap 2020 regulation requires a decrease in the sulfur content in the fuel oil used on ships from 3.5% to 0.5%. In this study, atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and fine particulate matter concentrations were measured in the Seto Inland Sea, a congested sea area in Japan. A rapid decrease was observed in ship emission indices, such as SO2, vanadium (V), nickel (Ni), and the V/Ni ratio, at coastal monitoring stations, providing evidence of the implementation of this regulation. Onboard observations clearly revealed a decrease in maritime gaseous SO2 immediately after the regulation came into effect; similar changes were observed in the coastal areas from January to June in 2019–2020. Although continuous studies will be needed to distinguish the benefits of the regulation from those of other factors, these findings will be useful for policymakers when addressing atmospheric pollution issues in congested sea areas.

Influence of the preparation of the cylindrical specimen surface and approach analysis on the test value of compressive strength

AbstractThe worldwide use of the axial compressive strength test makes it fundamental to identify the concrete class. However, this test presents dispersion of results which, consequently, reduces the reliability of the test. The surface of the tops of the specimens influences the values of strength measured, since the lack of flatness impairs the uniform application of the load. Different types of procedures can be used to ensure the flatness of the surfaces. Besides, there are different approaches for data analysis, namely to detect outliers. Thus, this research aimed to study and evaluate, the influence of sulfur capping, capping with confined neoprene sheet and noncapping of the test specimens, and the influence of the approach to detect outliers in order to understand the interference in the results. The sulfur cap presented the lowest dispersion values and the cap with confined neoprene sheet obtained the highest strength. In addition, the results showed that the lack of regularization of the tops of the specimens increased dispersion as it causes an important decrease of the resistance in the concrete.

Economic Cost Model of Options to Global Sulphur Cap considering Speed Differentiation

The 2020 global sulphur cap has been implemented to reduce the sulphur emission of the maritime transportation industry. It is a huge challenge for the ship owners to select a proper strategy to comply with the regulation. This study analyzes the economic costs of measures to comply with the sulphur cap including switching to low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and scrubbers. Meanwhile, considering the influence of the speed optimization on the voyage cost, an economic cost model of the LSFO method is combined with speed differentiation inside and outside the Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA). The route from Shanghai to Los Angeles is set as a case study. The optimal speeds inside and outside the SECA are calibrated. Then, the economic costs of both methods are calculated and compared. The results show that the speed differentiation strategy can reduce the economic cost of the LSFO method and thus reduce its cost disadvantage over scrubbers. In addition, a low discount rate would benefit the scrubber option based on sensitivity analysis.

Hydrotreating and oxidative desulfurization of heavy fuel oil into low sulfur marine fuel over dual function NiMo/γ–Al2O3 catalyst

The recent 0.5 wt% global sulfur cap on marine fuels increases the demand for low-sulfur marine fuels. Currently, marine fuels on the market contain up to 4.5 wt% of sulfur. The existing standalone desulfurization processes including hydrotreatment are not cost-effective for reducing the sulfur level of marine fuel to the mandated level. This study explored a new combination of desulfurization methods for marine fuels, first hydrotreatment under moderate process conditions, followed by oxidative desulfurization (ODS) to reduce the sulfur content to a desirable level of ≤ 0.5 wt%. The heavy fuel oil (HFO) feedstock of this study contains 3.4 wt% of S. Hydrotreating of HFO was performed in a trickle bed reactor using a commercial NiMo/γ–Al2O3 sulfide catalyst. Hydrotreating reduced the sulfur content of HFO to 1.14 wt%. It was further desulfurized by ODS using cumene hydroperoxide as an oxidant over the oxide form of NiMo/γ–Al2O3 catalyst. The FTIR analysis of the ODS product validated oxidation of sulfur compounds into sulfones and sulfoxides. The Box-Behnken design was applied to optimize ODS reaction variables such as temperature, oxidant concentration, and time. NiMo/γ–Al2O3 contains surface oxomolybdenum sites, which are expected to catalyze ODS by transferring oxygen from cumene hydroperoxide to sulfur compounds. The NiMo/γ–Al2O3 catalyst was found to be suitable for both hydrotreating and ODS. The upgraded heavy fuel oil of this two-step desulfurization process meets the IMO 2020 sulfur regulations.

Comparative Study of Light Cycle Oil and Naphthalene as an Adequate Additive to Improve the Stability of Marine Fuels.

Post the enforcement of the Global Sulphur Cap 2020, large amounts of marine fuel have been produced as a mixture of two or more components to achieve a sulfur level of less than 0.5 wt %. This has led to the wider use of diluents or cutter stocks from different origins to comply with the quality requirements of the ISO 8217 standard. These can often be bio- or alternative components with a lower level of stability. This makes it crucial to select components that are compatible and form a homogeneous mixture. The ISO 8217 standard provides commercial and operational protection; however, the stability of the fuel deteriorates over time. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop an adequate component or additive to improve the colloidal stability of marine fuels. A set of laboratory-prepared samples was used to verify the positive effects of the addition of a light cycle oil and also a newly developed additive (containing 30 wt % naphthalene as the simple diaromatic hydrocarbon in tetralin). The prepared fuels (with effective additive dosage), when stored for 60 days, maintained the total sediment accelerated (TSA) parameters, confirming the stability of the fuels. The additive converted the unsaleable fuel into fuel that complied with the requirements of ISO 8217. The developed additive can be used for industrial applications in marine fuel production.

Financial impact of the IMO 2020 regulation on dry bulk shipping

The effectiveness of the IMO's sulfur cap regulation in January 2020 disrupted the established business paradigm in some maritime shipping sectors. In the absence of a protection scheme by policymakers, the business paradigm in dry bulk shipping sector shifted, because the additional cost associated with the more expensive IMO sulfur compliant fuel had been passed to ship-owners, instead of charterers. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the business paradigm disruption that was caused by the IMO 2020, by examining the covariance between the freight rates and their Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rates around the IMO 2020 effectiveness date, as well as to quantify the financial impact of the IMO 2020 regulation to ship-owners, by modeling TCE, maximizing TCE function, and running TCE sensitivity analyses under various scenarios of price spread between the high sulfur and IMO compliant fuel oils before and after the introduction of the IMO 2020. The results of this study indicate that increased price of IMO compliant fuel oils and charterers’ bargaining power, had curtailed ship-owners’ gross profit margins. Although not a silver bullet, slow steaming can alleviate shrunken profit margins. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in calibrating future emission-related regulations to be equitable for all stakeholders engaged in seaborne transportation.

The coast is clear: Shipping emission standards, air quality and infant health

This study explores the stricter cap on the sulfur content in marine fuel implemented in seas in north-western Europe in 2015. The analysis is built on a difference-in-differences design that compares outcomes in coastal areas before and after the tightening of the sulfur cap, to the outcomes in control areas over the same period. The results show that the new sulfur cap reduced annual average ambient concentrations of sulfur dioxide ( S O 2 ) in coastal areas by 22 percent and levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 6 percent, compared to control areas. In the subsample with available air quality readings, the sulfur cap led to a 7 percent reduction in the risk of low birthweight in coastal areas. The estimated improvements provide a benchmark for assessing the benefits of tightening sulfur standards in other settings. • Cap on sulfur content in marine fuel tightened in 2015. • Stricter cap reduced concentrations of sulfur dioxide by 22 percent. • Stricter cap reduced levels of fine particles by 6 percent. • Stricter cap reduced risk of low birthweight by 7 percent in a subsample.

Investigating the determinants of shipowners’ emission abatement solutions for newbuilding vessels

• We identify the determinants of the owners’ abatement choice for newbuilding ships. • Vessel type plays a critical role in the shipowners’ abatement solutions. • The shipowners from different countries exhibit a unique abatement preference. • The Sulfur Cap has triggered demand for scrubber but not alternative fuel. • The influence of bunker cost for abatement solutions of new vessels is pretty weak. Because of the long lifetime of newbuilding vessels, shipowners' emission abatement solutions will have a profound impact on the greening transition of the shipping industry. A multinominal logit model is developed to identify the key determinants that affect the shipowners' choice of the solutions. New findings include: (1) Alternative fuels (e.g. liquefied natural gas) are the most attractive choice for gas ships and pure car carriers; and dry bulk ships and crude tankers prefer to use low-sulfur fuels. (2) Singaporean and Japanese shipowners are more likely to adopt the alternative fuels. (3) The IMO 2020 cap has significantly affected shipowners’ preference for scrubbers but not for alternative fuels. It is well known that economic factors affecting a shipowner’s decisions include freight rate and bunker cost but these factors weakly influence the emission abatement solution choice for new ships. This research provides helpful insights for the policymaker to guide shipowners to invest in more eco-friendly vessels and assist various stakeholders in forming efficient decisions.

A game theoretic approach on improving sulphur compliance

The global sulphur cap is the final step in a series of regulations that aim to reduce SOx emissions from shipping. It affects international shipping and requires all vessels to use fuel with a maximum of 0.5% sulphur content or use abatement technologies that achieve a similar reduction in SOx emissions. The existing legislative framework poses several challenges, stemming mainly from a highly non-homogeneous and spatially differentiated system, with cases where the penalty fines are as low as the benefit that the violator enjoyed from non-compliances. The purpose of this paper is to develop a game theoretic modelling framework that improves the effectiveness of sulphur regulations enforcement and proposes a uniform violation fine system. A mixed strategy game with two players is formulated, representing the ship operator (who can either comply or not with the regulation), and an enforcement agency (that can opt to inspect or not inspect the ship) respectively. The proposed model can improve compliance rates and increase societal environmental benefits through reduced sulphur emissions. We also consider a new system with warnings issued for repeated violations of the regulation that would lead to a mandatory retrofit of the vessel with sulphur abatement technologies. Such models can ensure a level playing field for ship operators that currently have invested heavily in abatement options to comply with the sulphur regulations.

Global air quality and health impacts of domestic and international shipping

Shipping activities contribute to degraded air quality and premature mortalities worldwide, but previous assessments of their health impact have not yet differentiated contributions from domestic and international shipping at the global level. The impacts of domestic shipping can affect different populations, and domestic and international shipping emissions are governed under different regulatory systems. Thus, a consistent global analysis comparing the health impacts from domestic and international shipping could inform policy making in attempts to coordinate policies across multiple scales to address the health burden of shipping emissions. In this study, we create bottom-up global ship emission inventories based on ship activity records from the automatic identification system, and then apply the GEOS-Chem atmospheric model and global exposure mortality model to quanitfy shipping-related PM2.5-concentrations and associated mortalities. We also quantify the public health benefits under different control scenarios including the 2020 0.5% sulphur cap, a post-2020 0.1% sulphur cap, and a post-2020 Tier III NO x standard. We find that 94 200 (95% confidence interval: 84 800–103 000) premature deaths were associated with PM2.5 exposure due to maritime shipping in 2015, of which 83% were associated with international shipping activities and 17% with domestic shipping. Although the global health burdens of ship emissions are dominated by international shipping, the fraction varies by region: 44% of shipping-related premature deaths in China come from domestic shipping activities. We estimate about 30 200 (27 200–33 000) avoided premature deaths per year under a scenario consistent with a 2020 0.5% sulphur cap. We find that a post-2020 Tier III NO x standard would have greater benefits than a post-2020 0.1% sulphur cap, with the two policies reducing annual shipping-attributable PM2.5-related premature deaths by 33 300 (30 100–36 400) and 5070 (4560–5540), respectively.

Marine fuel refining technology improvement trade-offs: A game theoretic approach

The implementation of International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2020 sulfur cap requires ship operators to decrease fuels’ sulfur content and this may increase their demand for low-sulfur fuel (LSF). In anticipation, bunker companies can choose to upgrade their refining technology to produce better quality distillate and lighter oil. In this study, we consider a bunker supply chain consisting of bunker companies and a population of ship operators with two main marine fuel products, low-sulfur fuel (LSF) and high-sulfur fuel (HSF). We use Cournot game to model the competition between LSF and HSF under two different market channels (i.e., dual and single channels). The results show that bunker companies’ refining technology upgrading choice is affected by many operational parameters, such as the basic market demand, cost difference between LSF and HSF, market competition, variable and fixed cost for upgrading, the increase of market demand due to upgrading, and so on. Compared with a dual channel bunker company, a single channel bunker company is less likely to implement new refining technology. We further consider the scenario where bunker companies can make decisions after the realization of ship operators’ demand uncertainty. The findings are beneficial for both LSF and HSF bunker companies and may reach a win-win solution for bunker companies.

Economic and environmental impacts of scrubbers investments in shipping: a multi-sectoral analysis

ABSTRACT The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has implemented a series of increasingly stricter regulations to reduce sulphur emissions from international shipping. As of January 2020, the global sulphur cap requires the use of fuel containing a maximum of 0.5% sulphur content, or the use of technology achieving a similar reduction in sulphur emissions. Deciding between fuel switching or investing in abatement technologies has been a recurring topic for research in the last decade, with a focus on shipping activities within Emission Control Areas (ECAs). The quest for the desulphurization of shipping results in higher operating costs as well as CO2 emissions. We estimate the economic and environmental impacts of compliance with sulphur limits for a variety of representative ship types. This paper quantitatively assesses case studies across the most important shipping sectors highlighting their different challenges. The results confirm that scrubber investments are more profitable at times of higher fuel prices, and for ships that spend relatively more time sailing. We show that the potential for speed differentiation inside and outside ECAs has been diminished. This framework can be a useful decision support system for selecting the best response amongst different compliance options to environmental regulations.

Choose clean energy or green technology? Empirical evidence from global ships

On January 1st, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented a new regulation for a 0.50% global sulphur cap for marine fuels, which was a dramatic decrease from the previous emissions cap of 3.5%. The new regulation will have an enormous impact on the shipping market. At present, there are different feasible schemes for reducing sulphur emissions from ships. Shipowners need to consider the economic cost, energy feasibility, and other relevant factors of different schemes before making decisions. This paper empirically explores the factors that affect shipowners' energy choices. Based on the new emerging individual ship dynamic data, Automatic Identification System (AIS), and other relevant databases, we apply various data mining methods and a threshold discrete choice model combined with an oversampling technique to conduct quantitative measurements and statistical analyses of factors for each ship type that affect the shipowners' choices. Three groups of indicators, including ship characteristics, shipowner characteristics, and market conditions, are considered in our analysis. In the model, we also address the heterogeneity of the carriers towards environmental awareness. This study provides important practical implications for responding to the new emissions regulations among maritime and maritime-related industries and policymakers.

Impact of 0.5% Sulphur Cap on Fuel Oil Properties

Impact of 0.5% Sulphur Cap on Fuel Oil Properties

K Line’s Approach to “Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil” and “EGCS” to Respond to Global Sulphur Cap 2020

K Line’s Approach to “Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil” and “EGCS” to Respond to Global Sulphur Cap 2020

Foreword for Special Issue “Response to Global Sulphur Cap 2020 and The Latest EGCS Trends”

Foreword for Special Issue “Response to Global Sulphur Cap 2020 and The Latest EGCS Trends”