Suitable Mitigation Strategies Research Articles

Characterization of future climate extremes over Tamil Nadu, India, using high-resolution regional climate model simulation

Tamil Nadu, an agriculturally important state in India, is recurrently exposed to floods, cyclones, and droughts that have devastating effects on human, agriculture, and economy. This persuades the study to focus on future climate extremities of the state. The future climate extremes are examined using daily temperature and rainfall simulations developed by Hadley Center’s Regional Climate Model termed PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) at a horizontal resolution of 25 km. The study uses the simulations that are driven by the lateral boundary condition of HadCM3Q0 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model-Q0) generated by a Perturbed Physical Ensemble of 17 ensembles under A1B scenario for the period of 2005 to 2095. Extreme indices have been acquired from the simulations using RClimDex. The trends of extreme indices are computed and verified for statistical significance using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope test. The changes in extreme indices with respect to baseline (1970–2000) reveal that almost all temperature indices denote a highly significant trend. The minimum temperature indices have shown prominent increase compared with maximum temperature indices, which is also upheld by the significant decrease in the diurnal temperature range trend. The summer days above 40 °C have indicated a substantial increase with a stronger slope of 0.77. However, the rainfall indices depict the insignificant trend. The changes in extreme wet days (R99p) and very wet days (R95p) exhibit a positive shift, and the increase of maximum 1-day rainfall is projected to be higher than maximum 5-day rainfall. Furthermore, the probability of rainfall indices exemplifies the increase of intense rainfall by the end of the century. The overall results of indices intimate that Tamil Nadu will be shifted to the extreme warmer and wetter condition by 2080s (2065–2095). Such information will act as a baseline to study the future impact assessment on different sectors thereby supporting policymakers and stakeholders to formulate suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Modeling the Impact of Spatial Correlations of Road Failures on Travel Times during Adverse Weather Conditions

Traveling in extreme adverse weather involves a high risk of travel delay and traffic accidents. There is a need to assess the impact of extreme weather on transport infrastructure and to find suitable mitigation strategies to alleviate the associated undesirable outcomes. Previous work in vulnerability studies applied either a constant failure probability or an assumed probabilistic distribution. Such assumptions ignored many factors causing the occurrence of road failure, especially that infrastructure components tend to fail interdependently. Based on empirical data of road failures and rainfall intensity during a typhoon, this study develops a statistical model, incorporating spatial correlations among the segments of road infrastructure, and uses it to evaluate the impact of the typhoon on travel time reliability. Mixed-effects logistic regression as well as rare-events logistic regression are applied to understand the factors involved in road failures and the spatial correlations of the failed segments. The analysis suggested that, in addition to the rainfall intensity, the road geometry, including elevation, land slope, and distance from the nearest river, were important factors in the failure. In addition, there is a significant correlation of failures within watersheds. This model gives an insight into the characteristics of road failures and their associated travel risks, which is useful for authorities to find proper mitigations to reduce the adverse effects in future disasters.

Investigating the impacts of a changing climate on the risk of overheating and energy performance for a UK retirement village adapted to the nZEB standards

The death toll of the 2003 heat wave in Europe exceeded 35,000 heat-related deaths. The elderly population were the most affected. The current paradigm within the construction industry in cold-dominant countries is to design/retrofit buildings with high levels of insulation. Whilst thermal comfort may be reached during colder months with this approach, the risk of overheating can be increased during hotter months. This paper aims to examine the impacts of a changing climate on the risk of overheating and energy performance for a UK retirement village. For this study, the buildings within the retirement village will be designed to reach the nearly zero energy building standard. Consequently, the risk of overheating of the buildings within the retirement village as they currently stand and as zero energy buildings will be investigated under current and future climatic conditions. The analysis is carried out using thermal analysis simulation software (TAS, Edsl). Combined heat and power and combined cooling, heat and power will be investigated as mitigating strategies with regard to overheating. The results of this study do not undermine the importance of continuing to improve the energy efficiency of existing buildings but rather highlight that the approach undertaken should be reconsidered. Practical application: Currently, there is emphasis placed on retrofitting and designing buildings, with high energy efficiency standards. Whilst this is in line with our vision as a society towards reaching a decarbonised, sustainable future, this work highlights that doing so, carries risks with regard to overheating. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate that with the incorporation of suitable mitigation strategies and adequate ventilation strategies, it is possible to achieve an energy efficient building that meets the heating and cooling demand (and thereby thermal comfort of occupants) during the heating and non-heating season.

Vulnerability of Vietnam to typhoons: A spatial assessment based on hazards, exposure and adaptive capacity

Typhoons have devastating impacts across many Asian countries. Vietnam is presently one of the most disaster-prone nations. Typhoons regularly disrupt human lives and livelihoods in various ways and cause significant damage. Making efficient policy decisions to minimize the vulnerability of affected communities is crucial. This requires a deep understanding of the factors that make a society vulnerable to extreme events and natural disasters. An appropriate approach is integrating the three dimensions of hazard, exposure and sensitivity, and community adaptive capacity. However, the vulnerability and adaptive capacity response to typhoons within Vietnam is poorly investigated.Here, we develop a conceptual framework that incorporates 21 indicators to identify vulnerability and adaptive capacity (VAC) using geospatial techniques at regional scales, applied over Vietnam. We find large spatial differences in VAC and are able to identify the top-priority regions that need to enhance their adaptation to typhoons. The Southern Coastal area, South East and Red River Delta demonstrate high and very high vulnerability because of their physical features and the intensity of typhoons that frequently cross these parts of Vietnam. The lower Mekong Delta and Northern Coastal areas are vulnerable to typhoon-driven flood threats, in particular where compounded by sea-level rise. Our framework successfully identified the spatial distribution and different levels of VAC within acceptable limits of uncertainty. It can therefore serve as a template to tackle national issues in disaster risk reduction in Vietnam and assist in the development of suitable mitigation strategies to achieve sustainable outcomes.

Approaches for phosphorus removal with calcium hydroxide and floating macrophytes in a mesocosm experiment: impacts on plankton structure

Cultural eutrophication has promoted the application of several mitigation strategies in the last 50 years. In this study we tested the combined effects of two techniques: calcium hydroxide [(Ca(OH)2), lime] and a free-floating macrophyte (Salvinia rotundifolia Willd) to examine the soluble reactive phosphorus removal capability and the effects on plankton (phytoplankton and zooplankton) structure in a in situ lake mesocosms experiment. The experiment lasted 10 days (n = 12, 500 l each) with a control and three treatments (lime (CH), plants (FM), and the combination of both (CH + FM)). Samples of several physical and chemical variables (including nutrients) and phytoplankton were taken at the beginning, 2 days after, 4 days, and 10 days (end of the experiment). Zooplankton was sampled at the beginning and at the end. The highest depletion effect of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) was observed in presence of lime. Phytoplankton biovolume was highly and negatively affected in lime treatments (CH and CH + FM). Zooplankton changed from Rotifera to Cladocera and Copepoda in presence of macrophytes. We conclude that lime + plants reduces more effectively SRP, phytoplankton biovolume and promotes herbivorous zooplankton development; becoming by this way, in a suitable mitigation strategy to be explored in future field manipulation studies.

The effectiveness of an integrated BIM/UAV model in managing safety on construction sites

Introduction. A variety of approaches exist to achieve better construction safety performance, but only a few consider a combination of building information modeling (BIM) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Method. This article presents a four-dimensional (4D) BIM/UAV-enabled safety management model based on IDEF0 language. In the first step, potential hazards are identified with the help of safety specialists’ experiences and BIM software used in the design of the structure. Then, a UAV monitors the location of the potential hazards. The third step involves the integration of the 4D BIM-based model and the information obtained from the UAV. Finally, the combined data are analyzed and interpreted, and site safety staff are notified about measures to be put in place to prevent accidents. Results. This model shows a strong relationship between the design and construction phases by using BIM in the design phase and UAVs in the construction phase. The proposed safety model was evaluated by construction safety specialists in a two-pronged approach. Conclusion. The number of fatal, non-fatal and property damage-causing accidents may be significantly lower when the proposed system was used. Practical application. This model allows safety specialists to identify hazards and develop suitable mitigation strategies.

Towards a feasible and representative pan-African research infrastructure network for GHG observations

There is currently a lack of representative, systematic and harmonised greenhouse gas (GHG) observations covering the variety of natural and human-altered biomes that occur in Africa. This impedes the long-term assessment of the drivers of climate change, in addition to their impacts and feedback loops at the continental scale, but also limits our understanding of the contribution of the African continent to the global carbon (C) cycle. Given the current and projected transformation of socio-economic conditions in Africa (i.e. the increasing trend of urbanisation and population growth) and the adverse impacts of climate change, the development of a GHG research infrastructure (RI) is needed to support the design of suitable mitigation and adaptation strategies required to assure food, fuel, nutrition and economic security for the African population. This paper presents the initial results of the EU-African SEACRIFOG project, which aims to design a GHG observation RI for Africa. The first stages of this project included the identification and engagement of key stakeholders, the definition of the conceptual monitoring framework and an assessment of existing infrastructural capacity. Feedback from stakeholder sectors was obtained through three Stakeholder Consultation Workshops held in Kenya, Ghana and Zambia. Main concerns identified were data quality and accessibility, the need for capacity building and networking among the scientific community, and adaptation to climate change, which was confirmed to be a priority for Africa. This feedback in addition to input from experts in the atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic thematic areas, facilitated the selection of a set of ‘essential variables’ that need to be measured in the future environmental RI. An inventory of 47 existing and planned networks across the continent allowed for an assessment of the current RIs needs and gaps in Africa. Overall, the development of a harmonised and standardised pan-African RI will serve to address the continent’s primary societal and scientific challenges through a potential cross-domain synergy among existing and planned networks at regional, continental and global scales.

Combinational Inhibitory Action of Hedychium spicatum L. Essential Oil and γ-Radiation on Growth Rate and Mycotoxins Content of Fusarium graminearum in Maize: Response Surface Methodology

Nowadays, contamination of agricultural commodities with fungi and their mycotoxins is one of the most annoying with regard to food safety and pose serious health risk. Therefore, there is a requisite to propose suitable mitigation strategies to reduce the contamination of fungi and mycotoxins in agricultural commodities. In the present study, combinational inhibitory effect of Hedychium spicatum L. essential oil (HSEO) and radiation was established on growth rate, production of deoxynivalenol (DON) and zearalenone (ZEA) by Fusarium graminearum in maize grains. The HSEO was obtained from rhizomes by hydrodistillation technique and chemical composition was revealed by GC-MS analysis. A total of 48 compounds were identified and major compounds were 1,8-cineole (23.15%), linalool (12.82%), and β-pinene (10.06%). The discrete treatments of HSEO and radiation were effective in reducing the fungal growth rate and mycotoxins content, and the complete reduction was noticed at 3.15 mg/g of HSEO and 6 kGy of radiation. Response surface methodology (RSM) was applied to evaluate the combinational inhibitory effect of HSEO and radiation treatments on fungal growth rate and mycotoxins content. A total of 13 experiments were designed with distinct doses of HSEO and radiation by central composite design (CCD) of Stat-Ease Design-Expert software. In combinational approach, complete reductions of fungal growth, DON, and ZEA content were noticed at 1.89 mg/g of HSEO and 4.12 kGy of radiation treatments. The optimized design concluded that combinational treatments of HSEO and radiation were much more effective in reducing the fungal growth and mycotoxins content compared to their discrete treatments (p < 0.05). Responses of the design were assessed by second-order polynomial regression analysis and found that quadratic model was well fitted. The optimized design has larger F-value and adequate precision, smaller p-value, decent regression coefficients (R2) and found statistically significant (p < 0.05). In addition, correlation matrix, normal plot residuals, Box-Cox, and actual vs. predicted plots were endorsed that optimized design was accurate and appropriate. The proposed combinational decontamination technique could be highly applicable in agriculture and food industry to safeguard the food and feed products from fungi and mycotoxins.

Analysis of barriers to implement additive manufacturing technology in the Indian automotive sector

PurposeA spurt in the usage of additive manufacturing (AM) is observed in industrial applications to produce final parts along with rapid prototyping and rapid tooling. Despite the potential benefits of on-demand and on-location production of customised or complex shape parts, widespread implementation of this disruptive production technology is not yet visible. The purpose of this paper is to examine the various barriers to implement AM in the Indian automotive sector and analyse interrelations among them.Design/methodology/approachBased on the extant literature and discussions with industry experts, ten major barriers are identified. The authors use a modified Fuzzy interpretive structural modelling (Fuzzy-ISM) method to derive strengths of relationships among these barriers, develop hierarchical levels, and thereafter group and rank these barriers.FindingsISM diagraph is developed to demonstrate how the barriers drive one another. Production technology capabilities and government support emerge as the most critical factors, with high driving power and medium dependence.Research limitations/implicationsWhile identified barriers may be similar across the automotive industry, generalisation of results for interrelationships and ranks in other industries may be limited.Practical implicationsThe findings may be useful to managers to develop suitable mitigation strategies, and take more informed decisions, with individual focus, level focus or cluster focus.Social implicationsFindings clearly establish that the role of management and government is crucial in mitigating workers’ resistance to AM implementation.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to AM literature by the structured presentation of the barriers to implement AM in the Indian automotive sector. It also extends the Fuzzy-ISM method by presenting calculation of indirect relations using the appropriate max-product composition and in ranking the barriers.

On the oxygen reduction reaction in phosphoric acid electrolyte: Evidence of significantly increased inhibition at steady state conditions

In the presented work, we investigate the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in half-cell measurements employing different electrolytes. The aim is to compare the ORR inhibition due to anion adsorption at transient as well as steady state conditions. It is found that the ORR inhibition at the platinum − phosphoric acid electrolyte interface is a relative slow, time dependent process. The major inhibition is not observed in transient polarization curves but only under steady state conditions. This observation is in contrast to the typical ORR inhibition due to anion adsorption as observed for example in sulfuric acid electrolyte. In sulfuric acid the inhibition is fast and then stays more or less constant in time. As a consequence of our findings, common transient measurements of the ORR activity might not be sufficient to investigate suitable mitigation strategies for the ORR inhibition in phosphoric acid electrolyte. Such strategies need to take steady state conditions into account.In order to explain the slow ORR inhibition in phosphoric acid electrolyte, two possible explanations are discussed. Either the adsorption of phosphate is a slow, complex process, where a fast adsorption step is followed by a consecutive filling of the surface, or a mass transfer barrier develops at the polarized phosphoric acid–electrode interface. The latter might be the viscoelectric effect that is known from colloidal science.

Disruption risk management in railroad networks: An optimization-based methodology and a case study

We propose an optimization-based methodology for recovery from random disruptions in service legs and train services in a railroad network. A network optimization model is solved for each service leg to evaluate a number of what-if scenarios. The solutions of these optimization problems are then used in a predictive model to identify the critical disruption factors and accordingly design a suitable mitigation strategy. A mitigation strategy, such as adding flexible or redundant capacity in the network, is an action that is deliberately taken by management in order to hedge against the cost and impact of disruption if it occurs. It is important that managers consider the trade-offs between the cost of mitigation strategy and the expected cost of disruption. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study built using the realistic infrastructure of a railroad network in the mid-west United States. The resulting analysis underscores the importance of accepting a slight increase in pre-disruption transportation costs, which in turn will enhance network resiliency by building dis-similar paths for train services, and by installing alternative links around critical service legs.

A Framework for the Resilient use of Critical Materials in Sustainable Manufacturing Systems

A number of materials have been identified by the EU as being critical to their member's economies and manufacturing industries. A material has been defined by the EU as being critical if it is of “high economic importance combined with a high risk of supply shortage”. This criticality will become increasingly acute as the escalating use of finite resources continues, driven by growing populations and consumer demand. One group of materials that is listed top on the majority of these „critical‟ lists are rare earths, which include the elements neodymium and dysprosium. These are often used in high value, high technology products used in renewable energy, military and aerospace sectors. Whilst most manufactures would be aware of the direct use of rare earth elements in their products, many may not be aware of their indirect use such as in manufacturing equipment and bought-in components, or further down the value chain in inter-reliant products or consumables. This paper presents a framework for the resilient use of critical materials in sustainable manufacturing systems. The first phase of this three phase framework identifies where, in the value chain of this business, critical material are used. Once identified, the second phase assesses the level of risk to the business based upon the likelihood, frequency and severity of a supply disruption occurring for the critical material identified. The third phase supports the identification and development of suitable mitigation strategies to reduce this risk, including the consideration of factors specific to the business as well as more general ones associated with the type of rare earth and its application. The paper concludes with a case study, based on simulated data, that demonstrates the application of phase one of this framework in a typical manufacturing operation.

Assessing land use and land cover of the Marikina sub-watershed, Philippines

The integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) approach was utilized in this study to classify land use and land cover (LULC), detect changes based over time, and identify transition trends in the Marikina sub-watershed, Laguna de Bay watershed, Philippines. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) imageries acquired in 1999 and 2006 were pre-processed and classified using a supervised classification technique with maximum likelihood classifier algorithm in RS and were used to develop maps of the sub-watershed and sub-subwatershed levels in a GIS platform. LULC change analysis revealed that, from 1999 to 2006, significant changes occurred in the sub-watershed as indicated by the increase of agricultural (11.76%) and orchard (4.52%) areas at the expense of brushland (16.56%) areas. Other LULC such as water bodies, built-up, forest, and grassland remain almost unchanged. In the sub-subwatershed level, Tayabasan experienced minimal change, whilst Tanay had the most transitions. Overall accuracy and kappa statistics were then derived using the confusion matrix, which resulted in 96.15% and 95.49% for 1999 imagery, and 93.82% and 92.73% for 2006 imagery, respectively. LULC persistence and transition trends were analyzed using land change modeler, while the Markov chain model has been utilized to predict the LULC distribution in 2020 pertinent to rates of change from 1999 to 2006. This study contributes not only to the understanding of the past and present landscape of the sub-watershed, but also provides an idea of the areas that need rehabilitation for the formulation of suitable mitigation measures and strategies toward the sustainable management of the sub-watershed.

Risk Management in Motorway PPP Projects: Empirical-based Guidelines

This paper deals with the topic of risk management in Public Private Partnership (PPP). The analysis of the related literature reveals that risks must be analyzed and managed on a context-specific approach, and that there is a lack of a comprehensive study on the appropriate risk mitigation strategies for each risk embedded in PPP projects. Focusing on the transport sector, based on the results of a Delphi survey, the paper provides guidelines for both public and private parties in defining a list of significant risks in PPP motorway projects, and identifying for them both the effective allocation and the suitable mitigation strategies. Results of the Delphi survey have been compared with the common practices on risk management applied in eight real motorway PPP projects.

A Multi-hazard Risk Assessment of Buildings in Padang City

The main purpose of an earthquake risk assessment is to assess the potential loss of buildings in earthquake prone regions and to provide enough information to employ suitable mitigation strategies. The Mw 9.1 great Sumatra earthquake in 2004 and the Mw 9.0 Japan earthquake in 2011 have highlighted the importance of a multi-hazard risk assessment framework that includes the effects of both earthquake and its associated hazards such as tsunami. The multi-hazard risk assessment of buildings requires several stages including earthquake and tsunami hazard analyses, the vulnerability analysis of buildings, building inventory as well as the risk estimation of buildings in the investigated area, which are discussed in this paper. The method on how to incorporate these stages into a multi-hazard risk assessment framework is also presented. The developed risk assessment framework is then used for the city of Padang that has a considerably high earthquake and tsunami hazard with great exposure to population and infrastructures. The estimated risk obtained in this study is expressed in terms of Pure Risk Premium (PRP) for different building categories commonly found in Padang including unreinforced brick masonry (UBM), confined brick masonry (CBM), reinforced concrete frame with masonry infill (RCI) and steel structures. The earthquake PRP(s) obtained in this study are comparable with the latest insurance rates released by MAIPARK. MAIPARK is an insurance company specialized in earthquake reinsurance, which also provides earthquake statistics and sets a benchmark for earthquake insurance pricing in Indonesia. Tsunami PRP(s) for different building categories in the area are also presented in this paper; however, no comparison can be made due to the unavailability of tsunami insurance premium data for Indonesia. Based on the results, it can be concluded that building risk associated with tsunami in Padang is considerably lower than that of earthquake, due to infrequent occurrence of tsunamis in the area. The earthquake and tsunami risk of buildings in Padang is predicted to be £54.5 million and £30.8 million per annum, respectively.

Development and validation of a stochastic model for potential growth of Listeria monocytogenes in naturally contaminated lightly preserved seafood

A new stochastic model for the simultaneous growth of Listeria monocytogenes and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) was developed and validated on data from naturally contaminated samples of cold-smoked Greenland halibut (CSGH) and cold-smoked salmon (CSS). During industrial processing these samples were added acetic and/or lactic acids. The stochastic model was developed from an existing deterministic model including the effect of 12 environmental parameters and microbial interaction (O. Mejlholm and P. Dalgaard, Food Microbiology, submitted for publication). Observed maximum population density (MPD) values of L. monocytogenes in naturally contaminated samples of CSGH and CSS were accurately predicted by the stochastic model based on measured variability in product characteristics and storage conditions. Results comparable to those from the stochastic model were obtained, when product characteristics of the least and most preserved sample of CSGH and CSS were used as input for the existing deterministic model. For both modelling approaches, it was shown that lag time and the effect of microbial interaction needs to be included to accurately predict MPD values of L. monocytogenes. Addition of organic acids to CSGH and CSS was confirmed as a suitable mitigation strategy against the risk of growth by L. monocytogenes as both types of products were in compliance with the EU regulation on ready-to-eat foods.

Pharmaceutical supply chain risks: a systematic review

IntroductionSupply of medicine as a strategic product in any health system is a top priority. Pharmaceutical companies, a major player of the drug supply chain, are subject to many risks. These risks disrupt the supply of medicine in many ways such as their quantity and quality and their delivery to the right place and customers and at the right time. Therefore risk identification in the supply process of pharmaceutical companies and mitigate them is highly recommended.ObjectiveIn this study it is attempted to investigate pharmaceutical supply chain risks with perspective of manufacturing companies.MethodsScopus, PubMed, Web of Science bibliographic databases and Google scholar scientific search engines were searched for pharmaceutical supply chain risk management studies with 6 different groups of keywords. All results found by keywords were reviewed and none-relevant articles were excluded by outcome of interests and researcher boundaries of study within 4 steps and through a systematic method.ResultsNine articles were included in the systematic review and totally 50 main risks based on study outcome of interest extracted which classified in 7 categories. Most of reported risks were related to supply and supplier issues. Organization and strategy issues, financial, logistic, political, market and regulatory issues were in next level of importance.ConclusionIt was shown that the majority of risks in pharmaceutical supply chain were internal risks due to processes, people and functions mismanagement which could be managed by suitable mitigation strategies.

Initiation process of debris flows on different slopes due to surface flow and trigger-specific strategies for mitigating post-earthquake in old Beichuan County, China

The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Ms 8.0) in China, produced an estimated volume of 28 × 108 m3 loosened material, which led to debris flows after the earthquake. Debris flows are the dominant mountain hazards, and serious threat to lives, properties, buildings, traffic, and post-earthquake reconstruction in the earthquake-hit areas. It is very important to understand the debris flow initiation processes and characteristics, for designing debris flow mitigation. The main objective of this article is to examine the different debris flow initiation processes in order to identify suitable mitigation strategies. Three types of debris flow initiation processes were identified (designated as Types A, B, and C) by field survey and experiments. In “A” type initiation, the debris flow forms as a result of dam failure in the process of rill erosion, slope failure, landslide dam, or dam failure. This type of debris flow occurs at the slope of 10 ± 2°, with a high bulk density, and several surges following dam failure. “B” type initiation is the result of a gradual increase in headward down cutting, bank and lateral erosion, and then large amount of loose material interfusion into water flow, which increases the bulk density, and forms the debris flow. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 15 ± 3° without surges. “C” type debris flow results from slope failures by surface flow, infiltration, loose material crack, slope failure, and fluidization. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 21 ± 4°, and has several surges of debris flow following slope failure, and a high bulk density. To minimize the hazards from debris flows in areas affected by the Wenchuan earthquake, the erosion control measures, such as the construction of grid dams, slope failure control measures, the construction of storage sediment dams, and the drainage measures, such as construction of drainage ditches are proposed. Based on our results, it is recommend that the control measures should be chosen based on the debris flow initiation type, which affects the peak discharge, bulk density and the discharge process. The mitigation strategies discussed in this paper are based on experimental simulations of the debris flows in the Weijia, Huashiban, and Xijia gullies of old Beichuan city. The results are useful for post-disaster reconstruction and recovery, as well as for preventing similar geohazards in the future.

Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

A Nonhomogeneous Agent-Based Simulation Approach to Modeling the Spread of Disease in a Pandemic Outbreak

To effectively prepare for a pandemic disease outbreak, knowledge of how the disease will spread is paramount. The global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002–2003 highlighted the need for such data. This need is also apparent in preparing for and responding to all disease outbreaks, from pandemic influenza to avian flu. Many previous studies of disease make simplistic assumptions about transmission and infection rates and assume that each member of the population is identical or homogeneous. We propose an agent-based simulation model that treats each individual as unique, with nonhomogeneous transmission and infection rates correlated to demographic information and behavior. The results of the model are output to geographic information system software to provide a map of the estimated disease spread area, which can be used as a policy-making tool for determining a suitable mitigation strategy. The Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion (OAHPP) uses the model for pandemic planning for the Greater Toronto area in Ontario, Canada.