Distribution Of Suitable Areas Research Articles

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution Areas for an Endangered Salamander in China.

Climate change has been considered to pose critical threats for wildlife. During the past decade, species distribution models were widely used to assess the effects of climate change on the distribution of species' suitable habitats. Among all the vertebrates, amphibians are most vulnerable to climate change. This is especially true for salamanders, which possess some specific traits such as cutaneous respiration and low vagility. The Wushan salamander (Liua shihi) is a threatened and protected salamander in China, with its wild population decreasing continuously. The main objective of this study was to predict the distribution of suitable habitat for L. shihi using the ENMeval parameter-optimized MaxEnt model under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed that precipitation, cloud density, vegetation type, and ultraviolet radiation were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. shihi. Currently, the suitable habitats for L. shihi are mainly concentrated in the Daba Mountains, including northeastern Chongqing and western Hubei Provinces. Under the future climate conditions, the area of suitable habitats increased, which mainly occurred in central Guizhou Province. This study provided important information for the conservation of L. shihi. Future studies can incorporate more species distribution models to better understand the effects of climate change on the distribution of L. shihi.

Predicting the current and future suitable distribution range of Trilocha varians (Walker, 1855) (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae) in China.

Trilocha varians is one of the major pests of Ficus spp. Based on 19 bioclimatic variables provided by the Worldclim, our study analysed the suitable distribution areas of T. varians under current and future climate changes (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for two periods (the 2050s and 2090s) using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) model. Key environmental variables affecting the geographic distribution of T. varians were also identified, and the changes in the area of suitable range under current and future climate changes were compared. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of T. varians were temperature and precipitation, comprising annual mean temperature (bio1), temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (bio4), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of driest quarter (bio17). Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution area of T. varians is within the range of 92°13'E-122°08'E, 18°17'N-31°55'N. The current high, medium, and low suitable areas for T. varians predicted by the MaxEnt model are 14.00 × 104, 21.50 × 104, and 71.95 × 104 km2, of which the high suitable areas are mainly distributed in southern Guangdong, southwestern Guangxi, western Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Hainan. Under different future climatic conditions, some of the high, medium, and low suitability zones for T. varians increased and some decreased, but the mass centre did not migrate significantly. The Pearl River Basin is predicted to remain the main distribution area of T. varians.

Potential change of chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) distribution areas in Kastamonu due to global climate change

Climate change, which is effective on a global scale, threatens almost all living things and ecosystems directly or indirectly. Forests are among the ecosystems that are predicted to be most affected by climate change. In this study, it was aimed to determine the current status of chestnut distribution areas in Kastamonu Forestry Regional Directorate, which is the Forestry Regional Directorate with the highest production in Türkiye, and the change in suitable distribution areas due to global climate change. In the study, in addition to the current suitable distribution areas of chestnut distribution areas and the current distribution area, the suitable distribution areas in 2040, 2070 and 2100 according to SSP 126, SSP 370 and SSP 585 scenarios were determined. The results of the study show that there will be a significant decrease in the suitable distribution areas of chestnut populations in Kastamonu due to the effects of climate change. Therefore, in order to prevent individual, population and species losses in the future, it is recommended to make necessary arrangements in forest management plans by taking the results of the study into consideration.

Distribution Dynamics of Diplopanax stachyanthus Hand.-Mazz. (Mastixiaceae) and Its Implications in Relict Mastixioid Flora Conservation

Climate is a key driver shaping the distribution pattern of organisms. Cenozoic climate change has led to extensive biota turnover. Untangling the distribution dynamics of a representative lineage of flora can provide deep insights into biodiversity conservation. Diplopanax is a notable relict lineage of the Tertiary mastixioid flora with abundant fossils in the Northern Hemisphere. Diplopanax stachyanthus Hand.-Mazz. is a representative relic lineage of the mastixioid flora, which was once widespread in the Northern Hemisphere of the early Tertiary period, but with only endemic distribution in the (sub)tropical humid forests of East Asia. It offers a unique chance to understand how climatic drivers shape the Boreotropical flora. In this research, we investigated the distribution dynamics of D. stachyanthus at the last glacial maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH), current, and three periods of the future (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) at four shared socio-economic emissions scenarios pathways. Our results indicated that the Precipitation of the Wettest Quarter (32.6%), the Precipitation of the Driest Quarter (21.2%), and the Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (17.3%) are the key factors affecting its distribution. The current high suitable distribution areas are primarily in southern China and northern Indo-China. The enforced winter monsoon seasons in East Asia since the late Pliocene period are the key climatic drivers reducing its once widespread distribution in the Northern Hemisphere. Under future scenarios, centroid transfer analysis suggests that its distribution center will shift southwestward, but the potentially suitable habitats in the coastal regions of southern China and northern Indo-China will be lost. These coastal populations should be prioritized for ex situ conservation. Expanding the nature reserve within its long-term stable distribution range in southwest China is an effective strategy for the in situ conservation of the ancient mastixioid flora.

Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors.

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner&Buhrer) Nickle is a global quarantine pest that causes devastating mortality in pine species. The rapid and uncontrollable parasitic spread of this organism results in substantial economic losses to pine forests annually. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and GIS software ArcGIS10.8 to predict the distribution of B. xylophilus based on collected distribution points and 19 environmental variables (with a correlation coefficient of|R| > 0.8) for the contemporary period (1970-2000), 2041-2060 (2050s), 2061-2080 (2070s), and 2081-2100 (2090s) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the key environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of B. xylophilus and suitable distribution areas. Our results indicate that in current prediction maps B. xylophilus had potential suitable habitats in all continents except Antarctica, with East Asia being the region with the most highly suitable areas and the most serious epidemic area currently. Precipitation of the warmest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest month, and maximum temperature of the warmest month were identified as key environmental variables that determine the distribution of B. xylophilus. Under future climatic conditions, the potential geographic distribution of B. xylophilus will expand relative to current conditions. In particular, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2081-2100, suitable areas will expand to higher latitudes, and there will be significant changes in suitable areas in Europe, East Asia, and North America. These findings are crucial for future prevention and control management and monitoring.

Possible Change in Distribution Areas of Abies in Kastamonu due to Global Climate Change

Aim of the study: In the process of global climate change (GCC), the migration mechanism needed especially for forest trees must be provided by humans. For this purpose, contrary to the previous studies, detailed studies to be carried out on small areas are needed. 
 Area of study: In the present study carried out in Kastamonu Regional Directorate of Forestry, which performs the highest level of wood production in Türkiye, it was aimed to specify the actual distribution areas of the Abies and the change in their suitable distribution areas due to GCC. 
 Material and methods: In this study, besides the existing distribution areas and the potential future distribution areas, also the suitable distribution areas were determined by using SSP 126, SSP 370, and SSP 585 scenarios for the years 2040, 2070, and 2100 for Abies at Kastamonu. 
 Main results: The results achieved there showed that, depending on the results of climate change, distribution areas of Abies populations would change in the future and this change would be in form of an increase in general. 
 Research highlights: This species (Abies) seems incapable of keeping up with such changes without human intervention. Thus, considering the study results, it is recommended to make necessary amendments to the forest management plans.

Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic distribution of the endemic Fritillaria aurea in Türkiye

Fritillaria aurea is a rare, high altitude, endemic, and bulbous plant species in Türkiye. Although it is classified as least concern according to IUCN criteria, the species has a narrow distribution. This study utilized ensemble modeling to forecast potential future changes in suitable habitats for F. aurea by two Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs: SSP 1-2.6 and 5-8.5). These pathways were constructed using two General Circulation Models (GCMs) and covered the years 2035, 2055, and 2085. The results showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) have the largest influence on the potential species distribution. The ensemble model predicted that the highly suitable habitats of F. aurea would contract under all future SSP scenarios and it would lose almost all of its potential highly suitable distribution areas by the end of the century. The remained population of F. aurea could possibly harbour in only minor areas of the North Anatolian Mountains in the north and Taurus Mountains in the south. The results of the study could contribute to establishing conservation strategies and natural resource management policies for F. aurea against the potential impacts of climate change. The highly suitable habitats under pessimistic scenarios at the end of this century projected by the present study can be determined as protected areas for the species.

Identification of Suitable Mangrove Distribution Areas and Estimation of Carbon Stocks for Mangrove Protection and Restoration Action Plan in China

Mangrove forests are significant blue carbon pools on the Earth with strong carbon sequestration capacity and play an important role in combating climate change. To improve the capacity of regional carbon sinks, China has implemented a Special Action Plan for Mangrove Protection and Restoration (2020–2025). In this context, based on the MaxEnt model, this study analyzed the important environmental factors affecting the distribution of mangrove forests, combined with the planning objectives and carbon density parameters of different regions; assessed the habitat suitability areas of China’s mangrove forests; and predicted their future carbon stock potential. The results showed the following: (1) Elevation was the most important factor affecting the overall distribution of mangrove forests in China, and the optimal elevation of mangrove distribution was 0.52 m. (2) The most suitable areas of mangrove forests in China were mainly distributed in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong, which had great potential for carbon stock. Danzhou Bay and Hongpai Harbor in Hainan, Lianzhou Bay in Guangxi, and the Huangmao Sea in Guangdong are potential areas for habitat suitability but are not yet under high levels of protection. (3) Achieving the goals of this action plan was expected to increase carbon stocks by 4.13 Tg C. Other suitable areas not included in this plan could still increase carbon stocks by 7.99 Tg C in the long term. The study could provide a scientific basis for siting mangrove restoration areas and developing efficient management policies.

Would future climate warming cause zoonotic diseases to spread over long distances?

Dipus sagitta is a major rodent found in arid environments and desert areas. They feed on plant seeds, young branches and some small insects, and have hibernating habits. Peak Dipus sagitta numbers impact the construction of the plant community in the environment, but also have a human impact as these rodents carry a variety of parasitic fleas capable of spreading serious diseases to humans. Based on 216 present distribution records of Dipus sagitta and seven environmental variables, this article simulates the potential distribution of Dipus sagitta during the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, the present and the future (2070s, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). This study also analyzes the geographic changes of the population distribution and evaluates the importance of climate factors by integrating contribution rate, replacement importance value and the jackknife test using the MaxEnt model. In this study, we opted to assess the predictive capabilities of our model using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) metrics. The findings indicate that the AUC value exceeds 0.9 and the AUC ratio is greater than 1, indicating superior predictive performance by the model. The results showed that the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of the three-toed jerboa were precipitation in the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality (standard deviation), and mean annual temperature. Under the two warming scenarios of the mid-Holocene and the future, there were differences in the changes in the distribution area of the three-toed jerboa. During the mid-Holocene, the suitable distribution area of the three-toed jerboa expanded, with a 93.91% increase in the rate of change compared to the Last Glacial Maximum. The size of the three-toed jerboa's habitat decreases under both future climate scenarios. Compared to the current period, under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, the change rate is -2.96%, and under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the change rate is -7.41%. This indicates a trend of contraction in the south and expansion in the north. It is important to assess changes in the geographic population of Dipus sagitta due to climate change to formulate population control strategies of these harmful rodents and to prevent and control the long-distance transmission of zoonotic diseases.

Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Three Rare Salamanders (Liua shihi, Pseudohynobius jinfo, and Tylototriton wenxianensis) in Chongqing, China, and Their Conservation Implications.

The Wushan Salamander (Liua shihi), Jinfo Salamander (Pseudohynobius jinfo), and Wenxian Knobby Salamander (Tylototriton wenxianensis) are rare national Class II protected wild animals in China. We performed MaxEnt modeling to predict and analyze the potential distribution and trends of these species in Chongqing under current and future climate conditions. Species distribution data were primarily obtained from field surveys, supplemented by museum collections and the existing literature. These efforts yielded 636 records, including 43 for P. jinfo, 23 for T. wenxianensis, and 570 for L. shihi. Duplicate records within the same 100 m × 100 m grid cell were removed using ENMTools, resulting in 10, 12, and 58 valid distribution points for P. jinfo, T. wenxianensis, and L. shihi, respectively. The optimization of feature class parameters (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM) were applied using R package "ENMeval 2.0" to establish the optimal model with MaxEnt. The refined models were applied to simulate the suitable distribution areas for the three species. The results indicate that the current suitable habitat area for L. shihi accounted for 9.72% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality. It is projected that, by 2050, the proportion of suitable habitat will increase to 12.54% but will decrease to 11.98% by 2070 and further decline to 8.80% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for P. jinfo accounted for 1.08% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is expected to decrease to 0.31%% by 2050, 0.20% by 2070, and 0.07% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for T. wenxianensis accounted for 0.81% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is anticipated to decrease to 0.37% by 2050, 0.21% by 2070, and 0.06% by 2090. Human disturbance, climate variables, and habitat characteristics are the primary factors influencing the distribution of three salamander species in Chongqing. The proximity to roads significantly impacts L. shihi, while climate conditions mainly affect P. jinfo, and the distance to water sources is crucial for T. wenxianensis. The following suggestions were made based on key variables identified for each species: (1) For L. shihi, it is imperative to minimize human disturbances and preserve areas without roads and the existing vegetation within nature reserves to ensure their continued existence. (2) For P. jinfo, the conservation of high-altitude habitats is of utmost importance, along with the reduction in disturbances caused by roads to maintain the species' ecological niche. (3) For T. wenxianensis, the protection of aquatic habitats is crucial. Additionally, efforts to mitigate the impacts of road construction and enhance public awareness are essential for the preservation of this species and the connectivity of its habitats.

Regional environmental differences significantly affect the genetic structure and genetic differentiation of Carpinus tientaiensis Cheng, an endemic and extremely endangered species from China.

Differences in topography and environment greatly affect the genetic structure and genetic differentiation of species, and endemic or endangered species with limited geographic ranges seem to be more sensitive to changes in climate and other environmental factors. The complex topography of eastern China is likely to affect genetic differentiation of plants there. Carpinus tientaiensis Cheng is a native and endangered plants from China, and exploring its genetic diversity has profound significance for protection and the collection of germplasm resources. Based on AFLP markers, this study found that C. tientaiensis has low genetic diversity, which mainly came from within populations, while Shangshantou and Tiantai Mountain populations have relatively high genetic diversity. The Nei genetic distance was closely related to geographical distance, and temperature and precipitation notablely affected the genetic variation and genetic differentiation of C. tientaiensis. Based on cpDNA, this study indicated that C. tientaiensis exhibits a moderate level of genetic diversity, and which mainly came from among populations, while Tiantai Mountain population have the highest genetic diversity. It demonstrated that there was genetic differentiation between populations, which can be divided into two independent geographical groups, but there was no significant phylogeographic structure between them. The MaxEnt model showed that climate change significantly affects its distribution, and the suitable distribution areas in Zhejiang were primarily divided into two regions, eastern Zhejiang and southern Zhejiang, and there was niche differentiation in its suitable distribution areas. Therefore, this study speculated that the climate and the terrain of mountains and hills in East China jointly shape the genetic structure of C. tientaiensis, which gived rise to an obvious north-south differentiation trend of these species, and the populations located in the hilly areas of eastern Zhejiang and the mountainous areas of southern Zhejiang formed two genetic branches respectively.

Landscape Heterogeneity Explains the Genetic Differentiation of a Forest Bird across the Sino-Himalayan Mountains.

Mountains are the world's most important centers of biodiversity. The Sino-Himalayan Mountains are global biodiversity hotspot due to their extremely high species richness and endemicity. Ample research investigated the impact of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau uplift and Quaternary glaciations in driving species diversification in plants and animals across the Sino-Himalayan Mountains. However, little is known about the role of landscape heterogeneity and other environmental features in driving diversification in this region. We utilized whole genomes and phenotypic data in combination with landscape genetic approaches to investigate population structure, demography, and genetic diversity in a forest songbird species native to the Sino-Himalayan Mountains, the red-billed leiothrix (Leiothrix lutea). We identified 5 phylogeographic clades, including 1 in the East of China, 1 in Yunnan, and 3 in Tibet, roughly consistent with differences in song and plumage coloration but incongruent with traditional subspecies boundaries. Isolation-by-resistance model best explained population differentiation within L. lutea, with extensive secondary contact after allopatric isolation leading to admixture among clades. Ecological niche modeling indicated relative stability in the extent of suitable distribution areas of the species across Quaternary glacial cycles. Our results underscore the importance of mountains in the diversification of this species, given that most of the distinct genetic clades are concentrated in a relatively small area in the Sino-Himalayan Mountain region, while a single shallow clade populates vast lower-lying areas to the east. This study highlights the crucial role of landscape heterogeneity in promoting differentiation and provides a deep genomic perspective on the mechanisms through which diversity hotspots form.

Potential impact of climatic factors on the distribution of Graphium sarpedon in China.

Graphium sarpedon is a significant foliar pest of Laurel plants in China. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to investigate the distribution of G. sarpedon and predict its potential distribution areas in China in the future (2050s and 2090s) based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), and key environmental variables affecting its distribution were identified. The results showed that under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution areas of G. sarpedon were 92.17°-134.96° E and 18.04°-33.61° N, including Yangtze Plain (Middle and Lower), Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Lingnan areas. Under the future climate conditions, the total suitable distribution area of G. sarpedon decreased, but the area of medium suitable area increased. The study identified 11 key environmental variables affecting the distribution of G. sarpedon, the most critical of which was Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18) and precipitation in April, May, June, and September (prec4, prec5, prec6, and prec9). This study is beneficial for monitoring and preventing the possible changes of G. sarpedon and provides theoretical references for its prevention and control.

Predicting the Potential Distribution Areas of the Asian Redtail Catfi sh (Hemibagrus wyckioides Fang and Chaux, 1949) in the Chao Phraya River, Thailand, using Maximum Entropy Modelling

Hemibagrus wyckioides is recognized as an economically important freshwater fi sh in Thailand. However, there are no available comprehensive data regarding the geographic distribution and habitat suitability of H. wyckioides in Thailand. In addition, its natural population has tended to continuously decrease. This study aimed to predict the suitable distribution areas of H. wyckioides in the Chao Phraya River, Thailand, using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm based on climatic factors, including 11 temperature and 8 precipitation indices from the WorldClim database. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The jackknife test was used to assess the contribution of each variable to the model. The results revealed that the MaxEnt model performed acceptably well, with an AUC value of 0.939, representing excellent accuracy in predicting the appropriate distribution areas of H. wyckioides in the Chao Phraya River. The potential distribution areas of H. wyckioides were observed mostly along the Chao Phraya River in Sing Buri and Ang Thong Provinces. According to the results of the jackknife test, 11 climatic variables impacted the distribution of H. wyckioides. The annual mean temperature (BIO1), precipitation of driest month (BIO14), and annual temperature range (BIO7) were the most important infl uencing variables, with impact values of 53.5%, 15.9%, and 11.9%, respectively. Therefore, understanding the potential distribution areas can assist researchers in monitoring, management, and conservation activities or with the development of new natural protected areas of H. wyckioides in high-quality areas in the Chao Phraya River.

Fuling production areas in China: climate and distribution changes (A.D. 618-2100).

Through a meticulous analysis of ancient Chinese literature, this study comprehensively documents the geographical distribution of Fuling, a traditional Chinese medicinal material, during the Tang, Song, Ming, and Qing dynasties spanning from the seventh to the twentieth century in China. Based on the contemporary distribution information of Fuling, we utilized the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to simulate the suitable distribution areas of Fuling under both present-day conditions and in the future (2081~2100). The findings reveal that climate change has influenced the distribution of Fuling production areas. The shifts in Fuling's origin during different periods in ancient and modern times align with climate fluctuations and concurrent societal development. During the Tang and Song dynasties, Fuling primarily originated in northern China. However, it migrated southward during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and has recently shown a slight northward shift, in line with the climate fluctuations of the LIA and contemporary global warming trends. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the changes in the distribution and production areas of Fuling over a 1500-year period, encompassing ancient, modern, and future periods. The results provide critical insights for adjusting Fuling cultivation areas in response to climate change and for further exploration of the mechanisms through which climate impacts the growth of Fuling.

Possibility of Wild Boar Harm Occurring in Five Provinces of Northwest China.

With the implementation of ecological engineering projects and related policies in China, wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations have surged, leading to increasingly serious conflicts with humans. We evaluated their potential habitat changes from the perspective of environmental suitability. To elucidate the suitable habitat characteristics for wild boars, we obtained data from 79 sites in five provinces in northwest China using database retrieval, human-wildlife conflict (HWC) incident questionnaires, and document retrieval. Thus, 10 environmental variables with lower correlation were selected, and potentially suitable distribution areas for wild boars under the current climate scenario were predicted based on the maximum entropy model. These areas were superimposed with different land use types in different periods to explore habitat selection. Precipitation seasonality (26.40%), human footprint index (16.50%), and elevation (11.90%) were the main environmental factors affecting wild boar distribution. The areas with high potential suitability for wild boars were mainly in the southeast and northwest of the region (total area of 2.63 × 105 km2). The land use types in the high-suitability zones are mainly woodland and grassland with high coverage, canopy density, and cultivated land borders. This study provides a reference for the effective prevention of HWC and management of wild boars.

Relict Plants Are Better Able to Adapt to Climate Change: Evidence from Desert Shrub Communities

Shrubs are the main dominant plants in arid desert systems and play an important role in maintaining the biodiversity, ecosystem services and stability of desert ecosystems. Studies have shown that the survival of a large number of shrub species in desert areas under the influence of climate change is significantly threatened, with different species showing different response strategies. To test the tolerance of different shrub species to climate change, this study selected 10 dominant shrub species (ancient relict shrub species and regional endemic shrub species) in the Alashan desert area as the research object. Based on a field survey of species distribution, a species distribution model was developed to simulate the suitable distribution area of shrub species under current conditions and under future climate change scenarios. The distribution changes of ancient relict and regional endemic shrub species under the climate change scenarios were tested, and the tolerance of the two types of shrub to climate change was analyzed. The results showed that under different climate change scenarios, except for Ammopiptanthus mongolicus, the total suitable area of four out of the five relict plants was relatively stable, the potential distribution area of Tetraena mongolica increased, and the future distribution pattern was basically consistent with the current distribution. However, the suitable area of typical desert plants was unstable under different climate change scenarios. Except for Kalidium foliatum, the suitable distribution areas of four out of the five shrubs showed different degrees of reduction, and the distribution location showed significant migration. Based on the research results, climate change will lead to the reduction and displacement of the distribution area of typical desert shrubs, while relict shrubs will be less affected by climate change. This is because, compared to desert species, relict plants have a longer evolutionary history and have developed a wider range of adaptations after experiencing dramatic environmental changes. This study provides a scientific basis for actively responding to the impacts of climate change on desert ecosystems.

Potentially suitable distribution areas of Populus euphratica and Tamarix chinensis by MaxEnt and random forest model in the lower reaches of the Heihe River, China.

Populus euphraticaandTamarix chinensisplay a vital role in windbreak and sand fixation, maintaining species diversity and ensuring community stability.Managing and protecting the P. euphratica and T. chinensis forests in the Heihe River's lower reaches is an urgent issue to maintain the desert region's ecological balance. In this study, based on the distribution points of P. euphratica and T. chinensis species and environmental data, MaxEnt and random forest (RF) models were used to characterize the potential distribution areas of P. euphratica and T. chinensis in the lower reaches of the Heihe River. The results showed that the accuracy of the RF model was much higher than that of the MaxEnt model. Both the RF and MaxEnt models showed that the distance to the river greatly influenced the distribution of P. euphratica and T. chinensis. Furthermore, the RF model predicted significantly larger highly suitable areas for both P. euphratica and T. chinensis than the MaxEnt model. Our study enhances the understanding of the species' spatial distribution, offering valuable insights for practical management and conservation strategies.

Predicting Habitat Suitability and Adaptation Strategies of an Endangered Endemic Species, Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang (Ericales: Theaceae) under Future Climate Change

Camellia luteoflora Li ex Chang is an endangered plant endemic to the East Asian flora with high ornamental value as well as phylogenetic and floristic research value. Predicting the impact of climate change on its distribution and suitable habitat is crucial until scientific conservation measures are implemented. Based on seven environmental variables and 17 occurrence records, this study optimized the MaxEnt model using the kuenm data package to obtain the optimal parameter combinations (RM = 1.3, FC = LPT) and predicted the potential distribution pattern of C. luteoflora in various future periods. The results revealed that the mean diurnal range, temperature annual range, and precipitation of the wettest month were the influential factors determining the distribution pattern of C. luteoflora, contributing 60.2%, 14.4%, and 12.3% of the variability in the data, respectively. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitats for C. luteoflora was only about 21.9 × 104 km2. Overall, the suitable area around the C. luteoflora distribution points will shrink in a circular pattern in response to future global warming, but some potentially suitable distribution areas will expand and migrate to higher latitudes and the Hengduan Mountains region, representing a survival strategy for coping with climate change. It is hypothesized that the future climate refugia will be the highly suitable area and the Hengduan Mountains region. Furthermore, a retrospective validation method was employed to assess the reliability of the predictions and estimate the model’s predictive performance in the future. This study proposes a survival strategy and adaptation measures for C. luteoflora in response to climate change, and the proposed measures can be generalized for application in conservation planning and restoration processes. We also recommend that future studies incorporate factors such as the anthropogenic disturbances and associated socio-economic activities related to C. luteoflora into the model and to further predict the distribution pattern for C. luteoflora in response to historical climatic changes, tracing the evolutionary history of its population.

Potential Global Distribution of the Invasive Mosquito Aedes koreicus under a Changing Climate.

Invasive alien species are a growing threat to natural systems, the economy, and human health. Active surveillance and responses that readily suppress newly established colonies are effective actions to mitigate the noxious consequences of biological invasions. Aedes (Hulecoeteomyia) koreicus (Edwards), a mosquito species native to East Asia, has spread to parts of Europe and Central Asia since 2008. In the last decade, Ae. koreicus has been shown to be a competent vector for chikungunya virus and Dirofilaria immitis. However, information about the current and potential distribution of Ae. koreicus is limited. Therefore, to understand the changes in their global distribution and to contribute to the monitoring and control of Ae. koreicus, in this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict and analyze the current suitable distribution area of Ae. koreicus in the world to provide effective information.