Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic distribution of the endemic Fritillaria aurea in Türkiye

Abstract

Fritillaria aurea is a rare, high altitude, endemic, and bulbous plant species in Türkiye. Although it is classified as least concern according to IUCN criteria, the species has a narrow distribution. This study utilized ensemble modeling to forecast potential future changes in suitable habitats for F. aurea by two Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs: SSP 1-2.6 and 5-8.5). These pathways were constructed using two General Circulation Models (GCMs) and covered the years 2035, 2055, and 2085. The results showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) have the largest influence on the potential species distribution. The ensemble model predicted that the highly suitable habitats of F. aurea would contract under all future SSP scenarios and it would lose almost all of its potential highly suitable distribution areas by the end of the century. The remained population of F. aurea could possibly harbour in only minor areas of the North Anatolian Mountains in the north and Taurus Mountains in the south. The results of the study could contribute to establishing conservation strategies and natural resource management policies for F. aurea against the potential impacts of climate change. The highly suitable habitats under pessimistic scenarios at the end of this century projected by the present study can be determined as protected areas for the species.